Hizballah misfires first missile of Iraqi shipment
Assad carries last Bush ultimatum to Saddam
India all set to set up nuclear forces command
India was warned of unconventional war
France bolsters its Ivory Coast troops December 30
Twin Towers steel set for US warship December 30
Update: Kashmir, Indian Missile, North Korea Nuclear, US Plans for Korean Contingency December 29
Indian Defense and Security News December 28
Jamiat says it shot down MiG, Indian Air Force rejects claim December 27
Russia to Be Outflanked through Great Silk Way? December 27
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Hizballah misfires first missile of Iraqi shipment
The powerful blast that reverberated across eastern and central Lebanon Sunday, December 29, was caused by the explosion of a big surface missile in Hizballah hands and of Iraqi origin. Reporting this, DEBKAfile’s exclusive military and Lebanese sources reveal that the Lebanese Shiite terrorist group has recently taken delivery of a shipment of surface missiles, presumed to be medium-range, from the Iraqi army. The blast occurred at a Hizballah training camp near a village called Janta in the northeastern section of the Beqaa Valley close to the Syrian frontier. This camp is also used by the group as a testing ground for new weapons, short range missiles and explosive devices. The blast was heard at a distance of 20 km indicating a warhead of one ton at least.
According to our sources, the missile exploded suddenly, catching the Hizballah team handling it unawares and causing a large number of casualties, as indicated by the long line of ambulances and rescue teams reported by witnesses to be racing to the blast scene from northern and central Lebanon. Among them were Syrian military rescue vehicles. The Hizballah quickly sealed off the ravaged area, allowing no one through but the rescue teams, their own operatives and Syrian officers.
Military sources consulted by DEBKAfile ascribe the missile explosion to three possible causes:
A. One of the recently delivered Iraqi missiles exploded accidentally while being unpacked and stowed in an underground bunker by Hizballah teams.
If this is what happened, then the missiles were armed when they made their way from northern Iraq through Syria to eastern Lebanon – either because the consignment was approved by the Iraqi leadership in great haste, leaving no time to disarm them, or to enable the transport crew to target Israel if attacked from the ground or air.
B. One of the missiles was set up for launching against Israel and exploded prematurely. For the Hizballah, shooting even one missile into northern Israel would have gained the group enormous prestige in its Arab and Muslim milieu, while Israel would have found it hard to justify a large-scale response to a single missile. Had it landed in an open space, the Hizballah would have claimed it was misfired.
Our Lebanese sources report that the Iraqi ruler, Saddam Hussein, is leaning hard on the Hizballah secretary general, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, to open a warfront against Israel in the hope of easing US military pressure on Iraq.
C. The Hizballah was setting the missile up for a practice launch when it blew up. This is unlikely as the Beqaa Valley is not the logical place for testing medium or long range missiles. From there they can only be fired at Syria, Israel or the Mediterranean. Of the three, Israel would make the most sense.
Hizballah officials and media have been working overtime to play down the missile mishap and divert attention from the heavy casualty toll and massive destruction it engendered – a far cry from the blaze of glory that Nasrallah envisioned would be his when he staged his first missile attack on the Jewish state, whether the weapon he launched was supplied by Syria, Iran or Iraq.
Return To Top December 31, 2002
Assad carries last Bush ultimatum to Saddam
Extract: For full article, please visit Debka.com.
DEBKAfile’s intelligence and military sources report that Saturday, December 21 - or Sunday, December 22 - directly after his visit to London, Syrian president Bashar Assad traveled again – this time to a secret rendezvous with Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein in Baghdad.
He brought with him President George W. Bush’s final ultimatum to the Iraqi ruler, delivered into his hands by British premier Tony Blair.
According to sources familiar with this latest gambit, the Bush ultimatum consists of nine main points:
A. Saddam is given a last chance to voluntarily give up his weapons of mass destruction and avert a military showdown with the United States.
B. He must deliver a full, factual and public account of the nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in his possession, together with a solemn undertaking to hand the forbidden arms over to the UN arms inspectors within two weeks, that is by mid-January 2003.
C. In return, the United States promises to suspend military preparations for war...
Return To Top December 31, 2002
India all set to set up nuclear forces command By Rajat Pandit writing in the Times of India.
NEW DELHI: Almost five years after India conducted a series of nuclear test explosions in Pokhran, the country's first-ever Strategic Forces Command (SFC) tasked with managing its nuclear arsenal is likely finally to come into existence next month. "The Cabinet Committee on Security is expected to give the formal go-ahead for the SFC in January. A nuclear command post in the shape of a concrete underground structure is also being built," said a defence source. Air Marshal T M Asthana, the present chief of the Southern Air Command who is tipped to be the first SFC commander, is being "attached" to the Air HQ in the Capital from January 1 in anticipation of this move. Pakistan already has a well-defined nuclear command and control structure in place, with a National Command Authority (NCA) to handle its nukes. Though an "informal" nuclear command and control set-up already exists in India, experts say a "formal" structure with a NCA headed by the Prime Minister would be a welcome development. The nuclear warheads and delivery systems in India, as it is, are kept separate for safety. The custody of the radioactive core, firing assemblies and delivery systems, for instance, are in the hands of the Department of Atomic Energy, Defence Research and Development Organisation and the armed forces respectively. As per estimates, India has a stockpile of 30-35 nuclear warheads. "The tri-Service SFC, which will handle all the nuclear assets and the existing delivery systems like nuclear weapon-carrying aircraft or land-based missiles, will formalise all this with an elaborate command and control structure to tackle emergencies and avoid confusion," said a source. The Army has already inducted the Prithvi tactical surface-to-surface missiles, which have a strike range of 150 km, and the 2000-km-plus Agni-II ballistic missiles with specially raised missile groups. The IAF, in turn, has also "operationalised" the 250-km-range "P-II" version of the Prithvi missile. The SFC commander will report to the chairman of Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) till a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), who is to act as a "single-point military adviser" to the civil executive, can be appointed by the government. The Group of Ministers' report on reforming the national security system had held: "Given India's nuclear status, there is a pressing need to establish a SFC to manage all strategic forces. While the operational control of the strategic forces should unambiguously vest in the highest political authority, the CDS should exercise administrative control over these forces," it added. Incidentally, the outgoing Army chief General S Padmanabhan, while handing over the COSC charge to Navy chief Admiral Madhvendra Singh on Monday, said the country already had an informal nuclear command set-up "which in time could acquire a formal status". Asked whether Pakistan's nuclear capability, especially "tactical" nukes, deterred India from launching a war early this year after full-scale mobilisation, General Padmanabhan said "we were absolutely ready" but such a decision has to be taken politically. "When we assess our adversaries, we assess all their capabilities. We had evaluated (this) and were ready to cope with it," he said.
Return To Top December 31, 2002
India was warned of unconventional war
From Pakistan’s Jang.
Musharraf says he was prepared to take severe measures at height of crisis; conveyed to India not to expect conventional war if it crosses border
KARACHI: President Pervez Musharraf revealed Monday he warned Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee earlier this year that Pakistan could step beyond conventional warfare if it had to defend its territory.
Musharraf, addressing an army corps reunion here, did not mention the threat of nuclear weapons, but said he was prepared to take severe measures at the height of crisis between the nuclear-armed arch rivals. "In my meetings with various world leaders, I conveyed my personal message to Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee that the moment Indian forces cross the Line of Control and the international border, then they should not expect a conventional war from Pakistan."
"I believe my message was effectively conveyed to Mr Vajpayee," he added. "There were threats on the border after September 11 and particularly after the Indian troops were sent to the borders, but now all threats are over," he said. "We have defeated our enemy without going into war," he added. "The enemy has withdrawn its forces and we are also withdrawing ours," Musharraf said.
Musharraf said Pakistan had successfully surmounted both the external and internal threats and now focus would be towards the alleviation of poverty. While speaking at the third reunion and installation ceremony of colonel commandant of the Army Air Defence Corps at Malir Cantonment, the president also apprised the audience of his view about the prevailing situation in the country.
He said that when in October 1999 he took over the reign of the government the country was facing internal as well as external threats which were endangering the very stability of the country.
Musharraf said the internal threat was owing to the country's economy and system of governance which were in bad shape and affecting the standing of the country in the comity of nations. The external threat was in the aftermath of Kargil episode, the September 11 event and the attack on the Indian Parliament in December last year after which India deployed its forces on Pakistan border in a threatening posture.
Musharraf added Pakistan faced external threat during the past three years. He said he considered this situation more serious because the Allah Almighty had blessed Pakistan with best resources and talents and if in spite of these the country's situation deteriorates to the extent as it was in the year 1999 the blame for this lies with them and their leaders.
The president said that "when intentions are not clear and there is no sincerity, honesty and loyalty with the country and there is no spirit to serve the country all these resources and talents of the country come to a naught."
He said that by the grace of Almighty Allah they during the past three years faced with good intentions, loyalty and honesty the internal and external threats and the God sided with them. "Now I can say with conviction that the threats we had been facing are over."
Referring to the external threat, General Musharraf said the planning of the enemy was to exert pressure on Pakistan by moving its troops to the Pak borders so that they should abandon and compromise on Kashmir cause. By the grace of God, he said, they did not submit to this very pressure and faced it bravely and for that he paid tribute to the entire army whose courage, determination, bravery and morale surmounted the external threat.
"There is a misconception in the minds of some that this very threat was surmounted owing to someone's help or participation. I want to tell you all today that for facing threats no one comes to anyone's help. It is because of our own strength, morale, faith, determination that we surmounted this threat," the president added.
Musharraf said that now the armies were being withdrawn from the forward positions on the borders. He said the internal threat was owing to the deterioration of economy and the system of governance. "I proudly declare that the threat the country was facing due to poor economy or governance is over," he added.
Musharraf said that now they would alleviate poverty. "The economy has been streamlined and we will see that its fruits reach the people at the grassroots level." He was convinced that poverty alleviation would continue in the time ahead.
The president said the country needed political harmony and improvement in law and order. He said he was convinced the governments in the centre and the provinces would complete the five-year term.
He said "Pakistan's stability lies in the preparedness and cohesion of the army." He said no one could harm the country as long as there was cohesion in the Pakistan army.
Musharraf also assured that the problems of Air Defence Centre would be resolved and the needs of enhancing war abilities and preparedness would be met. He announced he would also extend an amount of Rs one million for the Air Defence Centre.
Musharraf also praised the performance of the Air Defence Corps and said he accorded importance to its development, progress and employment and that strategy for this would be improved further. Earlier, he installed Lt Gen Ehsanul Haq as the new colonel commandant of the Army Air Defence Corps.
[Editor’s Comment. Politicians say what they have to without necessarily believing their own words. If, however, President Musharraf really believes his nuclear threat is what stopped India from attacking Pakistan in 2002, he is very badly mistaken. The Indian military believes that nuclear weapons will not be a factor in anything short of a total war aimed at destroying Pakistan. Since destroying Pakistan is neither India’s political or military doctrine, India has few concerns on the nuclear equation.
What stopped India was the fear of heavy Indian casualties if the fighting escalated, as it would have; the lack of preparedness for prolonged, large-scale conventional warfare; and a complete, total, overwhelming lack of moral courage on the part of India’s political leadership.
General Musharraf should be grateful his nuclear bluff was not called. He should also consider the international consequences of his continued, and nonchalant, statements about his readiness to use nuclear weapons at the slightest provocation.]
Return To Top December 31, 2002
France bolsters its Ivory Coast troops Due to system problems, we have been able to upload only a part of the daily news update. We apologize for the inconvenience.
France bolsters its Ivory Coast troops
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay; from the BBC.
Some 300 reinforcements have arrived in Ivory Coast to bolster France's
peacekeeping force in its former colony.
On Friday, French troops and rebels clashed for the third time in the west
of the country.
The French troops now have orders to shoot at anybody stopping them from
enforcing a fragile ceasefire.
Hundreds of people have been killed and many thousands displaced during the
three-month conflict.
Rebels control the mainly Muslim north, while the largely Christian south
remains in government hands.
Recently, rebels have accused the French of backing the government but in
the early days of the conflict, President Laurent Gbagbo complained that the
French was not helping him put down the uprising.
After a 10-day sea journey, a French ship, Le Foudre has reached the main
city of Abidjan, with helicopter gunships and other armoured vehicles.
The BBC's Paul Welsh in Abidjan says the reinforcements take the total
number of French troops to around 2,500. They include members of the Foreign
Legion paratroopers and cavalry.
On Friday, around 30 insurgents ambushed a French patrol as it was leaving
the town of Duekoue in the country's western cocoa belt, Lieutenant-Colonel
Ange-Antoine Leccia told the BBC.
The French soldiers fired back. There were no French casualties but there is
no information from the rebel side.
The United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appointed a "humanitarian
envoy" to the former French colony on Friday.
Carolyn McAskie, a senior UN official, will be in charge of co-ordinating
international assistance in the region.
France now has some 2,500 troops in Ivory Coast French soldiers were
originally sent to Ivory Coast to protect more than 20,000 French citizens
living there.
But France increased its military presence after rebels took two strategic
towns near the country's western border with Liberia.
Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo has proposed a plan to end the conflict,
but our correspondent says it is unlikely to address the rebels' concerns.
The rebels want a change to the controversial system of deciding who is an
Ivorian, which decides who can stand in elections or vote.
The president is suggesting a referendum which would decide who can stand
for president, who can vote and who can own land.
But only those who are already Ivorians under the present system would be
able to vote in the referendum - and that rules out most of the president's
opponents.
Alassane Ouattara, who enjoys much of his support from northern Muslims, has
twice been banned from contesting presidential elections on the grounds that
his origins lie in neighbouring Burkina Faso.
The former prime minister says he is Ivorian and earlier this year was
finally granted a certificate of nationality.
He has denied accusations that he is involved in the rebellion.
Return To Top December 30, 2002
Twin Towers steel set for US warship
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, from the BBC.
Steel salvaged from the wreckage of the World Trade Center in New York has
been sent to a Mississippi shipyard to be used in the construction of a new
US warship.
The USS New York will soon be defending freedom and combating terrorism
around the globe.
The metal was taken from the Fresh Kills landfill in New York, where the
debris of the twin towers was dumped after they collapsed in last year's 11
September attacks.
According to reports, a massive structural beam which supported the south
tower will be used to build USS New York, an amphibious vessel capable of
carrying more than 1,000 soldiers.
The recycling for profit of metal from the twin towers, where nearly 3,000
people lost their lives, has proved to be process fraught with emotion and
controversy.
But New York Governor George Pataki said he was proud that the remains of
the tower would be used and pleased that the vessel would be named in honour
of those who died.
''The USS New York will soon be defending freedom and combating terrorism
around the globe, while also ensuring that the world never forgets the evil
attacks of 11 September and the courage and strength New Yorkers showed in
response to terror."
Steel from the site has already been sold around the world. The steel of the
Twin Towers was of high quality
Almost immediately after 11 September, New York authorities started looking
for ways to deal with the 1.6 billion tons of wreckage.
After investigators combed through it, extracting human remains and personal
effects, more than 350,000 tons was sold for recycling in China, Malaysia,
Korea and India.
The World Trade Center steel was thought to be some of the heaviest,
thickest steel ever used in construction. Its outer skeleton comprised of
steel beams up to two feet thick.
Industry experts estimate that the steel has been sold to recyclers for
between $75 to $100 a ton, but it is unclear whether the Navy will pay for
the scrap it is using to construct the warship.
The USS New York should be ready for active service by 2007.
[Editor's Note: The USS New York is part of a class of amphibious ships that use city names. To begin with that is a mess-up, because originally cruisers, then the 688 SSNs, have borne city names. The ship, however, is not being named USS New York City, but is taking the name of the state. As such, it is doubly an out-of-series name, something that has become so common with a US Navy that, repeatedly bowing to political pressure, has so completely messed up the naming system for some decades now that it is scarcely worth comment.]
Return To Top December 30, 2002
Update: Kashmir, Indian Missile, North Korea Nuclear, US Plans for Korean Contingency Update: Kashmir, Indian Missile, North Korea Nuclear, US Plans for Korean Contingency
Kashmir attacks will continue, says Hizb chief MUZAFFARABAD: Militant outfit Hizb-ul Mujahedeen vowed to continue its attacks in Jammu and Kashmir "with full force", according to a statement made by the group on Saturday."We will continue jihad in Kashmir with full force," said Syed Salahuddin, head of the Hizb-ul Mujahedeen, at a special meeting of top mujahedeen commanders in Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The statement said the commanders discussed the convictions of the three accused in the December 13 Parliament attack case, and urged the international community and human rights organisations to prevent the death sentences from being carried out.Salahuddin said such harsh sentences won't stop the Kashmir struggle.He declared there would be no peace in Kashmir, until the residents of both parts are allowed to decide their own fate
India: Launch of Prithvi postponed again BALASORE, Orissa: The launch of the indigenously-developed Prithvi missile from the Interim Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur-on-sea, which was re-scheduled for Saturday, was postponed for the second time in the last two days because of some technical problem in its sub-system, ITR sources said.The sources, however, refused to divulge the nature of the problem or as to when the surface-to-surface missile would be test-fired again. The launch of Prithvi, which has a range of 150-250 km, had been temporarily suspended, the sources said.Originally, the test flight of the missile was scheduled for Friday, but it had to be put off at the last minute due to technical problem in the sub-system. The Defence Research and Development Organisation, which has developed Prithvi, has already conducted 16 trials of the army version of the missile since its maiden trial on February 22, 1988 from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh.
Secret nuclear cities of world's pariah state
For complete article, please go to The Guardian.
Control of the Korean peninsula or a peace treaty to ensure survival? Experts are split over Kim's aims
The mountains of North Korea are largely deserted places, limestone and basalt massifs that are covered in snow in winter and humid in summer. There are a handful of barely used official guest-houses that cater for the tiny handful of tourists allowed into the country who make it as far as ranges like the Fragrant Mountains from the capital of Pyongyang.
But it is what is happening beneath these mountains that caught the attention of the world this Christmas: the allegation that they hide vast factories and plants excavated secretly by night by armies of workers, thousands strong, and dedicated to North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
It is an enterprise that was described in detail for the first time in August of 2001 in the South Korean magazine, Shin Dong-A. According to the magazine, it had managed to lay its hands on a Chinese intelligence report, which had in turn been acquired by South Korea's own CIA, then leaked to journalists.
US-North Korea: A Training Plan Depicting Required US Forces For Korea Emergency
From Globalsecurity.com. Please visit site for more details.
[Editor: This document provides an explanation for why the United States currently speaks of diplomacy in resolving the North Korea nuclear crisis.]
ANNEX A TO COMJTF9518 OPLAN (ROLLING THUNDER) 9518-WW (FOUO)
TASK ORGANIZATION (FOUO)
ORGANIZATION
Joint Task Force 9518 (JTF 9518):
Army
Navy
Air Force
CJCS has released the following prepositioned assets that are further released to COMARFORKOREA
MARFOR JSOTF
Return To Top December 29, 2002
Indian Defense and Security News Indian Defense and Security News
BrahMos missile tests rescheduled
NEW DELHI: India is likely to conduct another test of the supersonic anti-ship cruise missile "BrahMos" in another day or two as part of the plan to begin commercial production and induction of these missiles by end-2003 or early-2004. Defence sources said a last minute snag in some sub-systems of the missile, which has been jointly developed by Russian and Indian scientists, on Friday has led to a slight delay in its flight-testing. This will be the third test of the 290-km-range missile which was successfully flight-tested from the interim test range near Balasore for the first time on June 12, 2001. India and Russia plan to begin the induction of BrahMos, which can be launched from a variety of land, sea, sub-sea or air-based platforms, into their armed forces after a few more trials. The two countries also plan to sell the air-breathing missile, which can fly at a velocity of up to 2.8 Mach, to "friendly third-world countries" which will be identified by mutual consent. While Pakistan does not possess such a missile, China has armed some of its ships with the 120-km range "Moskit" class cruise missiles procured from Russia. Defence officials say BrahMos, which operates on a "fire-and-forget" principal, is unique because all other current anti-ship missiles in the world either fly at subsonic speeds or have a much shorter range.
Indigenous LCA to be produced within 3 years NEW DELHI: India will start production of the multi-role supersonic light combat aircraft (LCA) in about three years and one of its models will be put up in an air show soon for the first time, Defence Minister George Fernandes has said. "We have developed two technology demonstrators (LCAs) which would be flown at the Aero Show 2003 at Bangalore in February. Five prototypes are planned... after prototypes have been test flown and completed the cycle of tests, we should be ready for production of LCAs in about three years time," Fernandes said. LCA is the world's smallest, light weight, multi-role supersonic combat aircraft. It has been designed to meet the requirements of Indian Air Force as its frontline multi-mission single-seat tactical aircraft. India began pursuing the indigenous aircraft project in 1983 seeking a lightweight, low-cost replacement for its ageing fleet of MiG-21 fighters. Fernandes said LCA would be used by both the Air Force and Navy. "In the first instance it (LCA) will be for the Air Force," he said but did not give the date of its induction. India would also manufacture 140 Sukhoi fighter aircraft soon, he said adding, LCA and Sukhoi, along with Jaguars, Mirage and the MiG variants would form a formidable air power. "It may take four to five years to roll out the first batch of indigenously produced Sukhoi aircraft," he said. The defence minister said technological aspects of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier have been finalised with Russia and price negotiations were on."Once pricing decision is finalised and work started, it would take 3-4 years for retrofitting the Gorshkov aircraft carrier," he said.
New Central Reserve Police Force Battalions To Be Raised
NEW DELHI: The Central Reserve Police Force is gearing up to become the country's largest central police organisation by going in for a major increase in the number of battalions along with modernisation of weaponry and equipment. Apart from specialised training in counter-insurgency and jungle warfare, the CRPF is also inducting modern equipment like medium machine guns, sniper rifles, automatic grenade launchers, Carl Gustaf rocket launchers, light bullet-proof vests and global positioning systems for communications. "The plan is to raise 64 battalions and 125 companies in the period between 2000 to 2005. Recruitments and training are already on. By 2005, CRPF will be the strongest central armed force," said the outgoing CRPF director general Trinath Mishra on Friday, in the run-up to the force's 63rd anniversary. This is in tune with the recommendation made by the Group of Ministers' report that CRPF should become the main force to handle internal security duties in the country. The government had already earmarked Rs 121 crore for expansion in the strength of the CRPF. "The GoM had recommended that counter-insurgency operations and internal security duties in Jammu and Kashmir and the NorthEast should primarily be handled by CRPF, Rashtriya Rifles and Assam Rifles so that other forces like BSF, ITBP and CISF can revert back to their original charter," said Mishra.
Two militant groups reject Mufti's peace appeal
SRINAGAR: Two major pro-Pakistan militant outfits on Friday rejected Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's appeal to lay arms saying such moves would not solve the Kashmir issue. "These appeals would not help in solving the Kashmir issue. It is surprising that some people have started pinning hopes on Mufti Mohammad Sayeed who is a bigger puppet than his predecessor Farooq Abdullah in the hands of Indian government", Hizbul Mujahideen and Jamiatul Mujahideen said in separate statements to a local news agency here. Operational chief of Hizbul Mujahideen, Saif-ul-Islam said, "If Sayeed wants to be the well-wisher of India, he should urge India to read the writing on the wall".
Return To Top December 28, 2002
Jamiat says it shot down MiG, Indian Air Force rejects claim Jamiat says it shot down MiG, Indian Air Force rejects claim SRINAGAR: Radical pro-Pakistan militant outfit Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen claimed that its cadre shot down the MiG-21 fighter plane that crashed near here on Thursday even as the Indian Air Force ruled out any such possibility.A person claiming to be the spokesman of the outfit said over phone that Jamiat's members fired a missile at the plane, bringing it down. He said the plane was shot down in response to Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's appeal to militants on Wednesday asking them to surrender arms."We will not lay down arms and every such appeal would be met with same reaction," the spokesman added. IAF spokesman Squadron Leader R K Dhingra said in Delhi that the possibility of the aircraft being hit by a missile or ground fire was ruled out.
Return To Top December 27, 2002
Russia to Be Outflanked through Great Silk Way?
From Pravda, analysis by Akhtyam Akhtyrov.
Oil and gas pipe line to China will be built from Kazakhstan
While Russia is considering all "for" and "contrary" as for its plans to deepen economical co-operation with China, China more and more actively looks for resource base for its economy and a direct (without Russian mediation) transport passage to Europe. Of course, there will be many variants. This was probably the subject of the conversation between the head of the oil company Yukos, Mikhail Khodarkovsky and President Vladimir Putin.
According to RusEnergy, the Chinese leadership confirmed its agreement to building the oil and gas pipe line from Kazakhstan to West China. This was reported December 25 by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev at the final press conference in Beijing, in the residence for official state delegation.
According to Nursultan Nazarbaev, this would allow to the republic to raise economical potential of the bilateral co-operation of Kazakhstan and China to a new level. Moreover, according to him, some agreements were concluded about building a railway on the Great Silk Way route. It will link China and Kazakhstan with Europe and South-East Asia.
Nursultan Nazarbaev is sure of economical co-operation between Kazakhstan and China have great prospects. "Economical and trade co-operation of our countries takes now a turn for the better. Our commodity turnover with China started from zero level and reached the level of 1,700-million level," - he said at the press conference.
From the President words one could conclude China has not refuse from its diplomatic methods in its relationship to Kazakhstan. Nursultan Nazarbaev said according to his information the Chinese leadership had taken a decision about apportionment of humanitarian aid of 10 million yuans to Kazakhstan.
Return To Top December 27, 2002
Outrage as India trains dolphins to mine ships
By Rahul Bedi in New Delhi, a story in The Telegraph. Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay.
Animal rights activists have condemned the Indian Navy's proposal to use
dolphins to plant mines on enemy ships and submarines.
"All nations must reject such use of animals, whether for warfare or for
chemical and biological tests," Poorva Joshipura of the People for Ethical
Treatment of Animals in Bombay said. Dolphins will become victims in a war
they did not choose, he added.
Other non-governmental organisations working to preserve marine life said
countries such as Russia and the United States had more or less abandoned
the use of dolphins as underwater saboteurs as they were unable to
distinguish between friend and foe.
"Western navies found that despite their stupendous intelligence, dolphins
were unable to tell the difference between ships and could easily end up
planting mines on those from their own side," Mitali Kakkar of Reef Watch
Marine Conservation in Bombay said.
She also appealed to the navy to abandon training dolphins for war. India is
possibly the only country that is persisting in pursuing this potentially
dangerous programme involving dolphins, Ms Kakkar said.
Defence officials said trials using trained dolphins to deposit mines on
ships over the past year off India's western coast had been "favourable" and
would eventually minimise the risk for naval divers during war.
"Naval divers are required to swim long distances to reach their target," O
P Yadav of the ammunition factory at Kirkee in western India that produces
the Maindeka limpet mine for the navy.
Highly skilled divers surreptitiously fix these magnetic-based mines that
weigh about 14lb at vulnerable spots on enemy ships. They run a high risk of
being detected by sensors and sensitive radar.
Naval officials claim that dolphins armed with mines will be able to break
"effortlessly" through enemy lines. Their ability to swim long distances
through choppy waters is another asset.
Return To Top December 27, 2002
Turkish Troops Set to Advance on N. Iraqi oil cities - Ahead of US Attack Turkish Troops Set to Advance on N. Iraqi oil cities - Ahead of US Attack
DEBKAfile Special Military Report from Debka [Abbreviated]
The conference held in Turkey on Tuesday, December 24, between Israel's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon and Turkish army chief Gen. Hilimi Ozkok, wrapped up the arrangements made by the US, Israel and Turkey for concerted action in the approaching war with Iraq. The operations of their air and missile defenses, as well as their air and naval forces, will be closely synchronized under arrangements that have also made provision against Syria and the Hizballah joining the conflict.
A second key visitor to Turkey Tuesday was Iraqi Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, whose Patriotic Union of Kurdistan-PUK fighters have been fighting tooth and nail in the past two weeks to fend off the bid by a pro-Saddam force made up of fundamentalist Kurdish Ansar al Islam, al Qaeda and Iraqi intelligence officers, for control of the Halabjah region in northeast Iraq. The pro-Saddam is effectively in control of the Halabjah-Suleimaniyeh highway east of the big oil city of Kirkuk, a circumstance of major strategic implications for the coming turn of events in northern Iraq.
DEBKAfile's military sources report that Wednesday, December 25, Talabani is to be joined in Turkey by his former rival and fellow chief of the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdish Democratic Party-KDP. Together with Turkish political and military leaders and US representatives, they will try and hammer out an historic Turkish-Kurdish accord based on a text drafted in Washington.
Its key elements are:
A. The Kurdish autonomous government of northern Iraq will grant 70,000 Turkish troops of the 2nd and 3rd Corps free passage through its territory for the Turkish push towards the big northern Iraqi oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul.
B. While transiting this enclave, Turkish troops will show every respect for Kurdish autonomy, thereby also conferring tacit recognition on the part of Ankara.
C. The Turkish contingents will seize control the two oil cities with the support of Iraqi ethnic Turkoman units, who will be said to have risen up against Saddam Hussein's domination of their region. For the moment, the Kurds will not press claims to Iraqi oilfields.
D. Turkey will then proceed to create an autonomous Turkoman entity stretching from northern to central Iraq up to the approaches to Baghdad.
E. The United States and Turkey will foster political, defensive and economic cooperation between the Kurdish and Turkoman self-governing provinces and guarantee their security. This clause indicates that a portion of North Iraq's oil revenues will be channeled to the Kurdish province.
In advance of this conference, the Turkish army was placed Tuesday, December 24, on a high state of preparedness and the 2nd and 3d corps deployed along the Iraqi border in battle array.
According to DEBKAfile's military sources, the successful outcome of the three-way parley on this document will open the way for a possible Turkish invasion of northern Iraq and its advance on the oil cities without waiting for the general American offensive to begin on other fronts.
A big question still hangs over Saddam Hussein's response to a Turkish invasion. Two options are evident: 1. Since, anyway, most of northern Iraq has been under Kurdish control for some years, the Iraqi ruler could ignore the Turkish invasion and concentrate on the defenses of Baghdad and Tikrit. He will then have to find a way of telling the Iraqi people that the North has fallen into the hands of "insurgents".
2. He could open up warfronts elsewhere, striking out for instance against American troop concentrations in the Persian Gulf, Kuwait, Jordan or Israel.
Gen. Yaalon's trip to Turkey on Tuesday was no doubt intended to buttress the western flank of the Turkish military operation. In this regard, keeping the Syrian air force on the ground is deemed of paramount importance. The Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's disclosure in a Channel Two TV interview Tuesday night, December 24, of information that Iraq is hiding some of its chemical and biological weapons in Syria to keep them from UN inspectors, is of relevance to this objective. Although he stressed that the information needs verifying, Sharon's choice of this moment to make the information public will be taken in Damascus as a hands-off warning against interfering with the Turkish advance into Iraq.
Return To Top December 26, 2002
Editorial from the Arab News: Afghan warlords
There is a good chance that the UN Security Council's unanimous endorsement of the "Kabul Declaration," in which China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan pledged to preserve peace, democracy and human rights in Afghanistan, may prevent that country from becoming once again a theater for proxy wars. Many of them had contributed to the conflict that went on for 23 years.
Their commitment, given on Sunday, may keep outsiders out of the country. But that need not mean peace for the land. There are enough insiders operating there. Shortly after the confirmation of Hamid Karzai as interim president, an Afghan journalist in Kabul wrote that there was only one price for peace that was not worth paying, and that price, he said, was more war.
The Soviet invasion unified large parts of the country. But when the invaders were finally ousted, the newfound unity quickly proved fragile. The warlords fought over the wrecked country, particularly the capital. Kabul, indeed, suffered far more damage after the Soviet evacuation than it had ever done in the war. Rival factions slugged it out in the streets with high-powered artillery.
Initially, the arrival of the austere forces of the Taleban came as a massive relief to ordinary Afghans, who were glad finally to see the back of the squabbling warlords, who put personal power before any consideration, not only of Afghanistan as a whole, but of their own supporters in particular.
They are back. Even those who had been driven out, like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, are now in action. He is a classic example of Afghanistan's old-style leaders who are unable to see that the way in which their country is run needs to be, and will be, changed. Chased out by the Taleban, Hekmatyar fled to Iran where, until his expulsion this spring, he nursed dreams of re-establishing his power base as a warlord. His party Hezb-e-Islami has since blown hot and cold about the Karzai administration. At one time, Hekmatyar announced that he would have nothing to do with Afghanistan's new political order because of the presence of foreign troops on the country's soil. Then his party's deputy said that Hekmatyar had been misquoted. But Hekmatyar has now said that he utterly rejects the Afghan peace process, not least because it involves foreign troops on Afghan soil. He is, therefore, allying himself with the surviving elements of the Taleban and Al-Qaeda, operating in the area along the Pakistan and Afghan borders.
Afghanistan does not need warlords jostling for political advantage as in the old days. There is a bigger, more important agenda. Afghans have a chance to shape their own future without foreign interference. Its independence is guaranteed by the whole international community. Massive amounts of aid have been promised to help the country, not only to rebuild, but to transform itself. Even though much of that money is still awaited, the offers are there on the table and cannot be withheld if Afghanistan proves it is succeeding in its struggle for stability.
Hekmatyar and his like are not part of this new Afghanistan. The noblest final gift that they could give their country would be to quietly withdraw from the political fray and instead cultivate their rose gardens.
Return To Top December 26, 2002
World News Summary Ukraine: Drawn Again To Moscow's Magnet?
Excerpts from Stratfor.com
The Financial Action Task Force, a grouping of 29 wealthy states, announced Dec. 20 that it would enact sanctions against Ukraine for its failure to curb money-laundering within its borders.
The move indicates that the United States has all but written off Ukraine as a geopolitical asset -- leaving the former Soviet republic floundering without capital, markets or a sponsor. That leaves Moscow, the only power likely to fill the gap, free to dictate terms to its former province.
Kenya Goes To The Polls
Extracts from Stratfor.com.
Kenyan voters will go to the polls on Dec. 27 to choose a new president, in only the second such transition of power since the East African nation gained independence in 1963. President Daniel arap Moi, who has held the position for the last 23 years, is constitutionally barred from running again.
The broad-based opposition alliance National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), led by 71-year-old Mwai Kibaki, is favored to win. Yet Moi's Kenya African National Union (KANU) presents a formidable challenge to the opposition, as it has all the powers of a ruling party at its disposal. The elections will be marred by violence, with the outcome determined by the tribal support each candidate can muster.
Indonesians roll up terror network
Martin Chulov, writing in The Australian; excerpts.
TWO weeks after finding a blueprint detailing the Jemmaah Islamiah terrorist network in the lair of one of its leaders, Indonesian police are on the verge of dismantling its hierarchy and disrupting a broader terror organisation across the troubled nation.
Six more suspects were named yesterday as a result of documents seized in the hideaway of Bali blast controller Mukhlas on December 5, bringing to 22 the number of alleged terrorists now linked to the Bali bombings.
Among them are two Malaysians, Dr Azahari, an alleged bomb-making expert, and Noor Din Moth Pop, who is alleged to have helped a third Malaysian academic, Wan Min, raise funds for the operation.
Documents found … have provided police with an unprecedented insight into Jemaah Islamiah JI's broad structure and its links to many shadowy groups throughout Indonesia and Malaysia - all of which support its broad ideology of the implementation of Sharia law and the establishment of an Islamic state throughout southeast Asia.
In a related development, Tamsil Lindung, a member of the Islamic group Laska Jandullah, which police initially suspected was behind the Bali blasts, has been taken in for questioning. He is being interrogated by police in the province of South Sulawesi. They are investigating the bombing of a McDonald's restaurant in the capital, Makassar, 10 days ago. Police have since said they strongly believe the Makassar blast was linked to the Bali attacks.
Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty said more needed to be learned about JI, but he said police broadly understood how the group's structure worked.
"It's a loose coalition of aligned teams, some of whom are known and some of whom are not," Mr Keelty said.
"It's not a hierarchical command and control structure that you might get with some organised crime syndicate, or indeed the IRA. "It's an amorphous matrix structure that has no beginning and no end, but has a lot of players who contribute to the overall ideology and philosophy of inciting fear that they should not be following the Western line."
UN readies for 900,000 Iraqi refugees
Extracts from a story in
The Australian.
THE UN is making secret contingency plans for a war that would halt all Iraqi oil production, "seriously degrade" the country's electricity system, provoke civil unrest and create 900,000 refugees, according to internal UN documents.
The documents predict that the worst fighting will be in the three central governorates around Baghdad, with the Kurdish-controlled north remaining largely free of conflict. But it will take a month after war breaks out before the predominantly Shia south is calm enough for UN humanitarian workers to operate there.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is trying to keep the preparations secret for fear of signaling to Iraq that weapons inspections are futile and a US-led attack is inevitable.
Confidential UN planning papers paint a grim picture of the effects of an attack against Iraq: they predict that production of oil will cease, the port of Umm Qasr on the Gulf will be shut down, and the bombing of bridges will cripple the railway network and make road travel difficult between the east and west of the country.
The electricity grid will be seriously disrupted, with collateral damage to water and sewage systems. Government stocks of commodities such as grain will also be hit.
Of the 900,000 anticipated refugees, the UN estimates that about 100,000 will need immediate help.
The Rome-based World Food Program said it had started to put in place sufficient food for 900,000 people for a month. The UN High Commission for Refugees has a stockpile of supplies for 250,000 people ready to move at 72 hours' notice but has only enough tents and blankets for 100,000 people. It could take 12 weeks and $US60 million to deliver enough supplies.
Ivory Coast Rebels lift curfew for Christmas
Extracts from an article in www.iol.co.za
Abidjan - Ivory Coast's main rebel group holding half the country since mid-September lifted curfew for a day on Tuesday to enable Christmas Eve celebrations.
The Ivory Coast Patriotic Movement (MPCI) said in a communique that the curfew, enforced on December 9 in zones held by rebels, would be lifted "on the night of December 24 to 25 across the entire area under our control.
But curfew will be in place in the southern half of the country held by the government, where it begins at 7:00pm (19h00 GMT) in the main city of Abidjan and at 9:00pm (21h00 GMT) elsewhere.
Christian parishes in government-controlled areas have announced that Christmas mass will be held in the afternoon, instead of midnight.
The government imposed curfew immediately after the September 19 uprising. - Sapa-AFP
Gaddafi is making Africa his playground
Extracts from an article in Zambia's newspaper The Mercury
Bangui - The soldiers Muammar Gaddafi sent to this African backwater speak no French or tribal languages - nothing the residents can understand.
When the Libyan troops want to make a point, they flick the safety catch off their AK-47s and let the "click" speak for them.
The Libyan leader who achieved notoriety for supporting terrorism and announcing grand political schemes to unify the Arab world is now putting guns and money into Africa, most visibly in the Central African Republic.
The stream of African heads of state travelling to Tripoli has surged in step with Gaddafi's African ambitions. Since September, 12 African leaders have made the trip.
Covert Gaddafi roles are also alleged by Ivory Coast government supporters and West Africa analysts, and denied by Libya and its partners, in the gravest wars now roiling Africa.
There are fears that a generation of African leaders who have fallen out with the West could turn to Gaddafi for money, guns and friendship.
Gaddafi's coveted returns: the respect denied him in the Arab world, a shot at a statesman's role and shares of the wealth knocking around unstable, resource-rich Africa.
The Libyan leader turned his back on Arab leaders in October after the Arab League refused to join African heads of state in condemning UN sanctions on Libya for the 1988 Lockerbie airline bombing.
Since deploying here in May 2001, Gaddafi's forces have saved the unpopular Central African Republic president, Ange-Felix Patasse, from coup attempts three times. Libya's prize: a monopoly on mining the country's gold, diamonds and uranium - although Patasse's
government has denied it.
The embattled Ivory Coast government complains of outside backing in a three-month-old rebellion shattering what was once West Africa's most stable and prosperous nation.
Leaders of Liberia and Burkina Faso, both Gaddafi proteges, are accused of funneling arms, cash - and in Liberia's case, fighters - to Ivory Coast rebels.
In Congo, where armed UN forces are trying to wind down a four-year, six-nation war, the Congolese envoy to the United Nations said recently that Libyan planes had flown in arms, ammunition and tanks to a pet rebel group there in recent weeks.
Return To Top December 25, 2002
Pakistan, Iran to hold wargames Pakistan, Iran to hold wargames
An article By Aslam Khan in the Jang of Pakistan.
[Your editor is generally an admirer of Pakistani diplomacy, but this move is baffling. It would not seem to currently be a good way of winning friends in Washington.]
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Iran have decided to hold joint military exercises to strengthen bilateral defence ties, official sources told The News here on Monday.
President Pervez Musharraf and his Iranian counterpart Mohamed Khatami will on Tuesday (today) hold official talks on holding the largest ever military exercises between the two countries, the sources said.
The joint exercises will be held early next year and both Musharraf and Khatami will finalise the dates when they meet for formal official talks on Tuesday. "The military exercises will help beef up bilateral defence cooperation," the sources said. Islamabad and Tehran have had mixed relations in the past, and previous military cooperation was limited to minor maritime exercises, some training and small-arms and ammunition sales.
Since the United States launched its war against terrorism, however, diplomatic traffic between Pakistan and Iran has increased, starting with President Pervez Musharraf's November 2002 stopover in Tehran on his way to New York.
Despite the divergent foreign policies - they supported different sides in Afghanistan, for example - they share a common concern: how to deal with the growing intrusiveness of the United States in the region.
Both Pakistan and Iran have experienced the military and political power of the United States, and neither can oppose or resist too much, according to sources. The natural consequence of Washington's growing show of force in the region, however, is that regional powers like Iran and Pakistan are drawing closer together, seeking to keep their footing in the ever-shifting environment, the sources added.
Return To Top December 24, 2002
An alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23
By Shawn Dudley.
AFI (Orbat Analysis Dec 23), gets the US strategic vision in the Mid-East half-right. The part it has right (and ground that's also been covered by StratFor.com) is that the action on Iraq is not simply about WMD, terrorism, or regime change. The goal here is to cement serious US control over the Mid-East, in the same way that occupying Germany cemented US control over Western Europe in 1945 (and stopped what might have been a half-dozen wannabes from capitalizing on the Nazi's downfall). In order to put forward a real change in the Middle East, the US has to work from a geographic basis of power, and that's not Israel (too small and not a Muslim country in any case). Iraq, on the other hand, has it all - 20 million population, borders on Turkey (NATO ally) and the Persian Gulf, has both oil and agriculture (the only country in the MidEast with both), and mostly without significant history of religiosity in at least the last 200 or so years. Iraq is as secular as they come in the Middle East, and that's what the US needs - an Arab version of Turkey.
Getting control over Iraq puts the US square in the center of a troubled neighborhood, and finally able to do something about it. Iraq borders not only troublemakers Iran and Syria, but also Saudi Arabia. It's more than likely the US will leave behind a force in Iraq to rival what we currently have in NATO (about 5-6 brigades of ground troops, with matching air and naval power). That's enough to do serious damage to anyone else we're annoyed with, and no doubt Iraq would also become the sanctuary for anyone else in the region who would rather put in governments we'd like (such as Asyrrians from Syria, secularists from Saudi Arabia, and anyone from Iran). I do agree with AFI also that Iran truly drives US policy in the MidEast, as it was Iran that made killing Americans in the name of Islam fashionable.
I see nothing wrong with us starting a chain reaction that would displace a number of bad apples in the region. For starters, the PLO has to go - whatever credibility they have left rests solely on their ability to martyr their own people. Ariel Sharon continues to be underestimated: if all of the predictions regarding him had come true by now, there would have been genocide in the West Bank. Instead PLO "soldiers" were faking their own deaths for European photographers in Jenin, such was the lack of carnage and degree of professionalism of the IDF. Rather than a reckless engine, Israel is the model of restraint, and quite well aware of how far they can push it. Also, a secular Iran can do nothing but help. Ironically, Iran is in better shape to change than anywhere else in the Mid-East, as they have perhaps the most stable constitutional system in the region. Just remove the Mullahs, and real democracy can (finally) begin.
Once the wind starts blowing, I think you'll find many other regional powers will suddenly "discover" democracy, or at least some degree of consent of the ruled will occur in any country that wants to avoid becoming a target of the US. This is already happening in the Gulf states and Yemen. Should the US conquer Iraq, and do so in a swift manner, Egypt and other "moderate" states might follow suit. Again, that's not a bad thing, is it?
Now to the other half of AFI's analysis, the comparison between the Roman Catholic Church and the "House of Islam" (for lack of a better term, as there's no equivalent of a Church in the western sense in Islam). The comparison suggests that Islam would resist a US "hegemony" in the same way that the Catholic resistance spawned the downfall of Communism, there are some very serious flaws in this analysis.
The first is that Catholicism and Islam are not even comparable in their approach. Nowhere in current Catholic thinking is there the "kill the infidels" mentality that is prevalent in fundamentalist Islam. Solidarity in Poland didn't start a counter-revolution in Poland by killing Russians, and ditto for the Czechs. The Hungarians tried that approach, and failed miserably. Conversely, one has a really hard time imagining Islamicists trying to practice non-violent resistance.
The second is that, unlike Eastern Europe, there's no equivalent of the KGB in America. Even the most cynical observer of the US doesn't envision the US Army bulldozing down mosques or executing imams, or driving all religious belief out of the schools and public square. The KGB did that in Eastern Europe, they did destroy churches, and kill and imprison religious leaders, and directly enforce a worldview that saw religion as the enemy of the people on those they conquered. The Americans, however, generally could care less about this sort of stuff - provided adherents of Islam don't kill Americans in return. Even Americans at their worst (see 1945 Japan) didn't attempt to wipe out Shintoism like the KGB tried to wipe out Catholicism in Europe.
Third is that the "Islamic groundswell" that so many critics are convinced will happen once we invade Iraq (and also when we did Afghanistan) is not as strong or as prevalent as they think. The Islamicists tend to get all the Western press, as is their intention, but they are hardly the majority of those in the Middle East. There are many, the majority of the Arab World in fact, that either don't take Islam as literally, have a moderate or even reformist view, or don't even follow it (such as the many Christian and minorities that can be found all over the Middle East). Create a sanctuary (what Iraq could be) where they can live and work without fear of reprisal or assassination, and the great antidote to fundamentalist Islam, reason, might actually take hold. The Arab world needs an example of a pluralist society that works (unlike Lebanon, the only other such example, and it was working until the PLO showed up). Success breeds success, and the vast majority of Arabs are more likely to ask "why can't we be more like them" instead of "why can't we get rid of them".
Such suggestions that all Arabs are somehow susceptible to "group-thought" religious mind control are incorrect, and perhaps also condescending. The Arab world has been in a continual storm of conflict since World War I, and many are just tired of it all. Provide a viable alternative (and provide physical security for those who choose it) and you will be surprised on how many will take it.
Return To Top December 24, 2002
A divided Middle East will be picked off one-at-a-time By Richard Bennett. This is a summary of a review by AFI [Armed Forces Intelligence], a subscription newsletter published from the United Kingdom. You may contact the Editor of analysis.orbat.com for details.
A US victory in Iraq is just the first part of a potentially stunning victory for Washington over the Islamic nations of the Middle East. A successful Army backed by impressive air and naval assets will control the Gulf, isolate Syria, Egypt and the North African Arab nations from the Gulf; destabilize Saudi Arabia and dragoon it back into Washington's pocket; allow the Israeli's a free hand to finally impose a solution on the Palestinians and destroy Hamas and Hezbollah, but perhaps most importantly surround Iran on all sides with American fire-power and client states.
The Islamic regime in Tehran is petrified of the mounting pressure Washington will exert once Saddam Hussein's regime has fallen and Baghdad is at last the American focal point for power projection in the very centre of the region. The Mullahs are wriggling on the hook right now and busily trying to buy themselves time by stabbing the Iraqi regime in the back, a gesture that merely increases the contempt in which they are held by many Pentagon and Administration Hawks convinced that though the focus at the moment is on the conflict with Iraq, the real threat and main target has been Iran ever since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979.
Iran and Central Asian oil are the real targets
Tehran's long range missile and weapons of mass destruction programs are far more advanced than Iraq's and have not suffered eleven years of bombing and sanctions. Her close co-operation with that other member of the 'axis of evil' North Korea has probably involved the testing of a 'trigger' for an Iranian nuclear bomb, while many terrorism analysts will privately admit that though Libya took the blame for the Lockerbie bombing, Iran was almost certainly the real culprit and her close connections to Islamic Terrorist movements including Hezbollah make her involvement in 9-11 and many other terrorist incidents a distinct possibility.
The present build-up in the Middle East is more reminiscent of a game of 'Risk' where though the attention is focused on Iraq it is in fact only a stepping stone to two enormous American goals; the destruction of Iran as a future threat to the West and the wresting control of the entire Gulf region from a hodge-podge of either hostile or weak regimes. The heady scent of an impending victory that brings with it the oil reserves, revenue and the economic power over other nations like India and Japan that such control will surely bring, is intoxicating Washington. This same game plan also further extends US influence throughout the former Soviet Central Asian Republics and restricts Moscow and Beijing's remaining opportunities to compete with Washington for the last great oil bonanza in the region.
Reagan-Bush Agenda Mark Two
The next few months are likely to see the opening stages of a war to control the very life blood of a modern industrialized world, the stakes are staggering and the fruits of victory are unimaginable wealth. Washington is being driven forward by the same crusading zeal that marked out the first great success for the Reagan-Bush agenda, the destruction of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of Communist Russia in the 1980's. Now the Islamic world is the number one target, and despite claims that it is Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction or Osama Bin Ladens terrorism that are the catalysts, the real truth is that a decision was probably made even before George W Bush won the Presidency that would require the United States to fundamentally restructure the Middle East by economic means and if necessary, by open war.
The United States achieved a stunning victory over Communism towards the end of the last century, and a defining moment in 21st Century history is now nearly upon us. While it is undoubtedly true that Washington has the determination and the military power to fight and win a series of wars in the Middle East, there is however just one major proviso. The Soviet Union had the military power to exert its will over Eastern Europe but was quite unable to destroy the Roman Catholic Church with eventually fatal consequences, Washington may also in the fullness of time come to realize that while its tanks and cruise missiles can destroy regimes, they will ultimately prove useless against a religion that may well prove far more resilient than political beliefs and nationalism. Turning a significant portion of some one billion Muslims into dedicated Islamic enemies may be the price the West will pay for short term military victories and the temporary control of the regions oil reserves.
Return To Top December 23, 2002
Pakistani May Have Offered Iraq Nuke Aid Excerpts from a story by DAFNA LINZER, Associated Press Writer UNITED NATIONS - A middleman claiming to represent the father of Pakistan's nuclear program offered Iraq help in building an atomic bomb on the eve of the Gulf War according to U.N. documents, diplomats and former weapons inspectors.
While there was no indication Pakistan's government was involved in the offer, former inspectors who spoke on condition of anonymity said Pakistani officials were uncooperative when the U.N. nuclear agency tried in the mid-1990s to investigate whether the scientist was really behind the proposal. U.N. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iraq didn't accept the offer and didn't mention it in its latest arms declaration. It also is not mentioned in a previous declaration which Iraq made in 1996 and which was recently seen by AP. U.N. inspectors discovered the offer in 1995 amid more than 1 million Iraqi intelligence documents they found at an Iraqi storage facility. Among the documents was a letter, dated Oct. 6, 1990 - two months after Iraq had invaded Kuwait - in which Iraq's secret service wrote to Iraq's nuclear weapons department: "We've enclosed for you the following proposal from Pakistani scientist, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, regarding the possibility of helping Iraq establish a project to enrich uranium and manufacture nuclear weapons." According to the letter, the Iraqis were told by a middleman that Khan was "prepared to give us project designs for nuclear bombs." The middleman would "ensure any requirements of materials from Western European companies, via a company he owns in Dubai," in the United Arab Emirates, it added. According to the letter, the motive was profit for the Pakistani nuclear scientist and the middleman. Such sales and help would have violated U.N. sanctions, imposed after the Iraqi invasion, and international nuclear controls. The U.N. atomic agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says it has never identified the middleman because Iraq would not provide more details on the offer. The IAEA tried to track down Khan and interview him after they discovered the letter. But former inspectors on the team, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Pakistan repeatedly frustrated those attempts. Instead, Pakistan said it had investigated on its own and determined that the letter was a fraud by an individual with no connection to the government.
Return To Top December 22, 2002
Afghan General: Army Is Poorly Equipped
Excerpts from an AP story by Noor Khan
A shortage of office space and up-to-date stationery in Kandahar, the
largest city in this barren region that was once a Taliban stronghold, has
made it difficult even to do the basic paperwork necessary to manage the
force, Khan complained.
Still, Mohammad said he was confident his men could defend southern
Afghanistan from any type of attack by Taliban or al-Qaida fugitives, or
from anyone else seeking to destabilize the fledgling government.
Mohammad said he had seen intelligence reports that the Taliban were linking
up with renegade warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, but said his men would act
aggressively and enjoyed the support of the people in Kandahar, once the
Taliban's main stronghold.
``We are ready with our coalition forces, and we have the support of our
nation,'' Mohammad said. ``The people don't want the Taliban.''
Return To Top December 22, 2002
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army From the Brookings Institute, an opinion by Peter W. Singer, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, and Anja Manuel, Attorney, Wilmer, Cutler & Pickering, appearing in
Foreign Affairs, December 2002
Nearly a year since U. S. forces helped topple the Taliban, attempts to build a functioning Afghan government remain in their infancy. This void, particularly in the security sphere, casts a shadow over the long-term prospects of Operation Enduring Freedom.
While attentions have shifted elsewhere, the international community has barely been able to maintain the status quo in Afghanistan. The new Afghan government remains essentially divided and powerless. Token U.S. and French efforts to build an Afghan army have trained only about 1,600 soldiers over the past six months. Moreover, the force's leadership is unrepresentative of the country's ethnic makeup and the pay is low, so roughly a third of the recruits end up quitting. Thus, there is still no substantial and representative Afghan national force, and security remains a major problem. Indeed, President Hamid Karzai must rely on an outside private security company to protect him from assassination. Resurgent Taliban and Al Qaeda forces operate with increasing temerity (averaging 50 attacks on U.S. forces every month), rival warlords continue to control most of Afghanistan, and the only flourishing trade is the illegal one in private customs duties and narcotics.
Despite this, the Afghan government still clings to the idea that it can build a centralized army of 70,000 and completely disarm the warlord forces - who by some estimates number 700,000 fighters - all in the span of the year. The United States, for its part, now estimates that the army will cost $350 million a year to train, equip and operate, and that this training can be completed in two years. Both plans are highly optimistic. Moreover, without a concept for integrating, rather than instigating, the warlords and making the Afghan army truly representative, they risk backfire.
This failure to think realistically about Afghanistan's future could undermine the overall goals of the U.S. in Central Asia. After its initial military success, the Bush administration reverted to its campaign rhetoric of avoiding "nation building," and shunned the lessons that the international community painfully learned in the interventions of the 1990s, including the need to build an international apparatus to help rebuild war-torn societies. As a result of this policy, U.S. military forces are ironically more involved in local politics and civil affairs than ever (i.e. "nationbuilding" by any other name), but do not have the backing of international institutions and NGOs better suited for these roles. The local government is no closer to standing on its own two feet.
This not only raises great worries about the prospects for long-term stability in Afghanistan, but also for what might happen in a potential post-war Iraq. While the U.S. has shown the capacity to eject malevolent leaders from power, it has yet to develop a blueprint on how build a successful and stable political system in their void. The U.S. failure to do so not only brings the problems that originally motivated intervention back full circle, but also risks ensnaring U.S. military forces in these troubled areas for the foreseeable future.
[We have to keep reminding our American readers: there is an Afghan army in place, but it is not the US-sponsored Afghan National Army. Instead, it is a loose coalition of the old warlord armies. Russia and India, among others, are deeply involved in reforming, reequipping, and retraining some of these forces. Oddly, we never read anything about this in American press. Our Afghan expert has, unfortunately, gone on to bigger things so we are without this person's unique insight into events. Nonetheless, our impression is the warlords, and the traditional outside players in Afghanistan, are quietly biding their time. The US is forcing everyone to behave. If President Karzai and the Afghan National army survive and grow, they will reassess their options. If President Karzai and the ANA fail, the players and the warlords know what they have to do.Editor]
Return To Top December 21, 2002
Blair puts forces on war-footing
LONDON: The British government on Friday urged its troops to be ready for war, while the US announced it was sending 50,000 men to the Gulf, just hours after the two countries accused Iraq of violating its disarmament agreement with the UN.
"The key thing at the moment is to make all the preparations necessary, and to make sure that we are building up the capacity in the region," British Prime Minister Tony Blair told the armed forces radio and television service. He was speaking after both Washington and London declared Baghdad in "material breach" of its UN weapons obligations. "At the moment we simply don't know whether the (UN weapons) inspectors will find the breach or not," Blair said and added "We will be prepared to use force in order to ensure that they (the Iraqi regime) are disarmed of all chemical, biological and potentially nuclear weapons."
"Sometimes the best way of avoiding war is to be prepared for war if you have to have it," he added. The London Times said Britain would seek the UN's explicit approval for war on Iraq in a second resolution at the end of January if arms inspections showed Saddam was in breach of UN Security Council resolution 1441.
Meanwhile, US President George W Bush said on Friday that Iraq's weapons report disappointed "those who long for peace." "We're serious about keeping the peace, we're serious about working with our friends in the United Nations" to disarm Iraq, Bush said as he met with US partners in the effort to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said: "The United States will continue to work with its allies through the consultative process in a deliberate way and a thoughtful way, but in the end, there should be no doubt about the outcome. Saddam Hussein will honour his commitments to the world, demonstrate that he is sincere about peace by disarming, or the
United States will lead a coalition that disarms him." A US defense official said Washington planned to send an extra 50,000 men and more military hardware to the Gulf by early January in readiness for a possible war.
"We want to be ready, but of course, it's up to the president to decide about a war and he has not made a decision," the official said on condition of anonymity. The deployment would include tens of thousands of reservists and give US President George W Bush the option to start combat operations against Iraq in late January or early February, the official said.
The United States declared on Thursday that Iraq was in "material breach" of its obligations, with Secretary of State Colin Powell warning the world would not wait forever for Baghdad to disarm. Powell spoke after chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Muhammad ElBaradei gave a first evaluation to the Security Council of the 12,000-page Iraqi arms declaration. Blix told the UN the world cannot be sure Iraq does not have weapons of mass destruction but also said that he could not "disprove" Iraqi claims to have destroyed all prohibited weaponry.
Blix complained on Friday that the United States and Britain were not providing enough intelligence to inspectors about sites in Iraq where they claim Baghdad is hiding weapons of mass destruction. The United States responded by saying that it would keep sharing intelligence with UN weapons inspectors in Iraq but will not provide secrets that risk "drying up" its sources for future data.
"It is entirely in the interest of the United States, of this government, to give the inspectors the tools they need to do their job," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters. Baghdad, meanwhile, urged the United Nations to stand up to the US and British "deceit".
Iraq's ruling Baath Party daily Ath-Thawra said the other "members of the UN Security Council ... should shoulder their legal and moral responsibilities and take a responsible stance against the injustice, the aggressions and threats aimed at Iraq." "The issue is not weapons of mass destruction or the return of the (UN weapons) inspections ... it is finding a pretext to attack Iraq," it said.
A top Russian official said on Friday that the threat of war against Iraq had not diminished following Blix's briefing but added that most Security Council members and Arab states were trying to prevent it. Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, whose country is one of the five permanent Security Council members with veto power, meanwhile, urged the international community not to make any hasty decisions.
Tang said Chinese experts were still assessing Iraq's weapons declaration but had not reached a conclusion on its contents. "At the present time there is no need to hastily pass verdict on the Iraqi report," he said.
Germany said on Friday it had agreed to help protect US bases in the country in the event of a war, following a US request. But German Defense Minister Peter Struck had stressed earlier that Berlin, which has refused to join military action against Iraq even with a UN mandate, expected Saddam to be allowed to "improve" his country's arms declaration.
The United States was also likely to seek Sri Lanka's permission to fly over its airspace and use its ports in the event of war with Iraq, US ambassador Ashley Wills said on Friday.
IAEA inspectors were working on Friday at the al-Tuwaitha site, the former heart of Iraq's nuclear program, an Iraqi official said. The large complex, 25 kilometers southeast of Baghdad, has been visited six times since UN arms experts resumed inspections in Iraq on November 27 after a four-year break.
Return To Top December 21, 2002
Israeli Army "Short of Men" Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay.
THE Israeli army has been "stretched to the limit" because of a shortage of
combatants over the past two years, a general has said.
"We lack combatants ... when the army has important and dangerous tasks to
undertake and complex and substantial fronts to defend," General Gil Rege
said.
Rege, who was speaking on Israeli public radio, is the human resources chief
for the army's Central Command, covering the reoccupied West Bank.
In March and again in mid-June, the army retaliated after a spate of
Palestinian suicide bombings with massive offensives into the West Bank in a
bid to dismantle Palestinian "terrorist infrastructure".
All West Bank cities apart from Jericho have been reoccupied since June 19
and the army carries out frequent incursions into the Gaza Strip, which it
also surrounds.
At the same time, troops remain deployed on Israel's borders, notably on its
northern border with Lebanon for fear of an offensive by the Shiite militia
Hizbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran.
The Jewish state is also planning its response should Iraq resort to
non-conventional weapons in retaliation for any US strike to topple Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein.
Baghdad fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War, killing
two Israelis and wounding scores more.
Return To Top December 20, 2002
50,000 US troops get order to mobilize
Excerpts from an article by Jon Dougherty appearing in Globalsecurity.org
In the first of what would become a massive mobilization of troops for war with Iraq, up to 50,000 soldiers, sailors and airmen will head to the Persian Gulf shortly after Christmas.
"Preliminary notification is being made to forces," said one unnamed administration official, the New York Post reported today.
Military officials said late yesterday that no final decision on whether to invade Iraq had been made. Nevertheless, large-scale mobilization orders are set to begin in January, which appear to support earlier reports that U.S. commanders prefer to battle Iraq during cooler months.
Sources told the Post that preparations are intensifying throughout the U.S. military. Some units have even had holiday leave canceled.
"The volume of the low-level ambient noise that we've seen over the past few months is going up," said Tim Brown, military analyst for the defense think tank GlobalSecurity.org.
Britain also is preparing for war, leasing a large merchant ship earlier this week to transport heavy armor to the Gulf by mid-January.
British Defense Minister Geoff Hoon said extra naval resources also would be sent to the region and that procurement of desert-fighting equipment had been accelerated. He also said some troops had been placed on high alert for short-notice deployments.
Britain plans to commit as many as 20,000 British troops to the operation. The U.S. has about 60,000 troops in the region.
Earlier report said the U.S. may amass up to 300,000 troops before striking Iraq. Baghdad's ground forces are said to number around 375,000 men, with 70,000 of those Republican Guard troops.
WorldNetDaily reported Wednesday that a decision to strike Iraq has been postponed until at least the end of this month to give United Nations weapons inspectors a chance to make their report.
Despite Iraq's vehement denials that is has no weapons of mass destruction, the Pentagon is already well aware of numerous arms violations by Baghdad. The U.S. has intercepted communications from Iraqi officials discussing the hiding of weapons of mass destruction and their components, sources told WorldNetDaily.
Those weapons are being hidden in steel mills, parts factories and even in weapons and ammunition plants, sources said.
Return To Top December 20, 2002
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week'
An article by Andrew Buncombe of the Independent, appearing in Globalsecurity.org
The American weaponry likely to be deployed in any military strike against Iraq is so advanced and hi-tech that some was not even ready to be used in the operation in Afghanistan just 12 months ago.
With an armoury including satellite imagery that can distinguish a tank from a bus, even through thick cloud, to microwave bombs that can destroy electrical and computer systems without hurting civilians, military planners preparing for war are confident that any strike would be completed in little more than a week.
"The first Gulf War was fought like the Second World War, with air dominance - pounding their defences, softening up the forces and then going in," said Daniel Gouré, a military analyst with the Washington-based Lexington Institute think tank. "This will be speedier, more precise - an effects-based operation. It will be much more surgical, both in the use of explosive force and in the overall operation."
While the present emphasis is on securing the evidence America would need to go to war - the UN wants a list of Iraqi scientists linked to arms programmes by the end of the month and is stepping up the pace of inspection, swooping on 11 sites yesterday - analysts agree that America's military dominance will ensure any assault on Iraq is brief.
Among the weapons Mr Gouré and others highlight are satellite-guided smart bombs known as Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs). While a number of these were used in Afghanistan, many more are likely to be deployed in Iraq.
The smart bombs available have also been upgraded. The GBU-28 "bunker-busters" have been upgraded by the BLU-31. Designed to penetrate hardened underground facilities, these have also been equipped with a new device called the hard-target smart fuse, which allows the bomb to "count" how many floors it needs to penetrate before detonating. A new category of bomb is the thermobaric device - only one was used in Afghanistan, and missed its target - which can penetrate indoor or underground spaces and then set off a blast of heat and pressure strong enough to destroy biological agents such as anthrax or smallpox.
One weapon that is completely untested in battle is the microwave bomb, which British and US experts have been working on for several years. Exploding in mid-air, these bombs release pulses of magnetic energy that seek out electrical systems and computers and burn them out - even if they are buried underground. These can also be used to create a fizzing sensation on a person's skin - something US law enforcement agencies have been testing for crowd control.
Chris Hellman, a senior analyst with the Centre for Defence Studies, said: "If it's available and we get into a situation where we are looking at urban warfare, it will definitely be used. They may not be man-portable, but having them on the back of a truck would not be a problem."
Other new or updated weapons include an improved battle tank, the Abrams MI A2, the Apache Longbow helicopter and a high-altitude version of the unmanned Predator drone, which can be used to carry satellite surveillance equipment or Hellfire missiles. Another is the Stryker, an armoured fighting vehicle offering great manoeuvrability. Planners believe it could be so important that - unlike the recent campaigns in Kosovo and Afghanistan - ground forces could play as important a role as bombers.
John Pike, director of globalsecurity.org, another research group, believes the supremacy of US technology will mean any military operation will last little longer than a week. "I think when this war is written up it will emerge as the re-emergence of the importance of land power," he said.
Return To Top December 20, 2002
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002
Indian Government says no to manpower reduction in Army Indian Government says no to manpower reduction in Army From the Times of India
NEW DELHI: The continuing proxy war has caused the government to hike the Army's strength, rather than reduce it. Also, there is to be no dilution of the Army's role in counter-insurgency operations. The government has told a parliamentary committee that it has had to revoke its earlier 1997 order of suppression of manpower as it had led to "unacceptable levels of deficiency". The order, under which 50,000 Army personnel had been disbanded, had been revoked since September 2001 in view of the emerging situation along the borders. It was imperative to have the Army in full strength to fight the proxy war and insurgency. "The revocation is to be implemented over a period of one to three years," the government told the parliamentary standing committee on defence in an action taken report tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. The committee, in its recommendations, had asked the government to chalk out a time bound plan for the Army's de-induction from counter-insurgency operations. The government also disagreed with the standing committee that the Indian Air Force's teeth-to-tail ratio was very high and that MiG-21 squadrons were overmanned by 20 per cent in comparison to Russian and Czech squadrons. The government said though some pruning had been undertaken, it turned down any further reduction saying this would have "serious repercussions" on the war fighting capabilities of the IAF. "Combat units in the Air Force are already operating below their optimal manpower strength and any further reduction would have serious repercussions," the government told the committee. The government said the Air Force standing establishment committee had conducted a review of these squadrons last year and reduced the strength of technical personnel from 370 to 320. "This is the minimum required manpower to meet the IAF's operational needs. In spite of this, the strength of technical manpower in MiG-21 remains below this strength. Other fighter units are also facing a similar situation," the report said. For improving the teeth-to-tail ratio, the manpower reduction, if at all, should take place in non-combat units, it said. As far as complaints by the committee on overmanning of radars units, the government said the IAF was operating P-18, P-40 and ST-68 Russian radars not only in stand-alone mode but also for limited ground control interception. Because of gaps in low level coverage, these radars were frequently moved from one location to another for operations and thus the manpower required was more than originally recommended by the manufacturers.
Return To Top December 18, 2002
Pakistan withdraws warplanes from forward locations
From Pakistan's Jang
ISLAMABAD: As part of recent de-escalation, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has withdrawn war assets from its forward operating bases (FOBs), said Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Mushaf Ali Mir.
"Yes, we have withdrawn our most of aircraft and resumed our normal training at the peacetime locations," he said while talking to newsmen after inaugurating a daylong seminar on "Self-reliance in military aviation", organised jointly by the ISSI and CAPS. "We are back to normal training and leave," he added.
On mass procurement of high-tech aircraft and avionics by India, the PAF chief said, "presently, our ratios are not very bad, but it is not denying the fact that if India continues to get more high-tech aircraft from the West or from the East then this balance will tilt in favour of our adversary".
"It is always our endeavour to get more high-tech aircraft and right from top to bottom, this is an acknowledged fact that PAF needs to be boosted with more strength, high-tech aircraft like Awacs and radars - they are required for the PAF," the PAF chief said.
When asked to comment on the proposed procurement of high-tech aircraft by the PAF, Mushaf said: "Right now the international political situation is not favourable for any country to sell expensive high-tech weaponry what to talk of the aircraft."
Brushing aside the impression that the manufacture of K-8 aircraft project has been shelved, the PAF chief said, "the project, during the last three years, has picked up instead of being shelved as is being misquoted through some media reports".
This being a joint venture by a Chinese firm (Ketic) and Pakistan, the Chinese firm is supposed to give us the share on its sale in the market which is being complied with accordingly, he said.
In Pakistan some major parts and components of the aircraft are manufactured, he said. "We are already booked for almost next two years," he said.
The chief of the Air Staff said the PAF has recently included six K-8 aircraft in its fleet and "we intend to increase the number of the aircraft by adding 18 more aeroplanes".
About the inaugural flight schedule of indigenously developed Super-7 medium- to high-tech aircraft, he said its prototype would be able to make maiden flight by the end of June next year. "It is a second tier aircraft and can be compared with Indian Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)," he said. "There can be unforeseen delays, but our all-out endeavour is to meet the deadline," he said. About the regular flights of the aircraft, he said it could take many more years.
Return To Top December 18, 2002
US to closely work with Jamali govt
From Pakistan's Jang and article by Shakil Shaikh & Mohammad Anis.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan handed over 400 terrorists to the United States since September 11 attacks in the US, said US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca here Tuesday.
On the second day of her visit to Pakistan, Ms Rocca, dealing with South Asia in the State Department, presented Interior Minister Syed Faisal Saleh Hayat more than 8,000 pieces of radio and communications equipment worth $ 4.5 million.
Ms Rocca called on President General Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali and discussed with them Pak-US relations, the regional security situation and the US desire to play a role in bringing peace and security to South Asia.
"Rocca and President Musharraf discussed matters of bilateral interest," said an official statement.
Rocca later said President Pervez Musharraf assured the US that Pakistan is not helping North Korea in its nuclear programme.
She said Musharraf had made the assurances by telephone to US Secretary of State Colin Powell.
"He has discussed this with President Musharraf, (and) President Musharraf has offered 400 percent that nothing is happening," Rocca told reporters.
Powell said on November 25 he had made clear to Musharraf that "any sort of contact between Pakistan and North Korea we believe would be improper, inappropriate and would have consequences."
Congratulating the prime minister on his election, the US assistant secretary of state expressed keen desire to work closely with the new government in Pakistan.
"I appreciate Pakistan's role in the war against global terrorism," said Ms Rocca, who was on her third trip to Pakistan, though it was her first visit since formation of the new democratic government.
The US official lauded restoration of democracy in Pakistan.
Talking to journalists at the Interior Ministry after handing over the equipment, Rocca termed Pakistan as a reliable ally in the war against terrorism.
"We fully trust the Pakistan government and they are very much with us in the war against terrorism," said the US official.
To a question, she said the Pakistan government is extending full cooperation to the US, which is appreciated by Washington.
Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat said, "FBI is not carrying out operations anywhere in Pakistan, but sharing intelligence with the Pakistani authorities."
He said the US has been assisting Pakistan by providing training to the policemen and technical assistance in the cyber crimes.
"We exchanged views on terrorism and enhancing cooperation in the field," said Faisal on his meeting with the US official.
He also said that Maulana Azhar Masood, Hafiz Saeed and Maulana Azam Tariq were released, as courts are independent and if somebody is given relief by the courts, the government has nothing to do with it.
"The government is in constant touch with the authorities at Guantanamo Bay to manage early release of Pakistani detainees," said the interior minister.
The US radio and communications equipment worth $ 4.5 million is part of the US government's $ 75 million programme to enhance Pakistan's security.
The equipment and training are designed to allow Pakistani law enforcement agencies to better coordinate their operations and will provide a vital security link for forces deployed in remote areas.
The latest communications equipment package compliments previous US administration-donated equipment that is, in some cases, the only communications equipment that those agencies possess.
Ms Rocca said this vital programme would give Pakistani law enforcement agencies additional tools to protect the community from those who would exploit the border region to pursue criminal aims.
"It will also help Pakistan to continue its commendable progress in eradicating opium poppy and will help prevent the inflow of dangerous narcotics that destroy lives here in Pakistan and overseas and I am proud today to be able to commemorate the delivery of a central component of that programme: A radio communications package that will total $ 4.5 million of equipment," she said.
Ms Rocca said what you see in front of you is a fraction of the over 8,000 pieces of equipment that are currently in Pakistan and ready for delivery to agencies, under the supervision of Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat.
This equipment, she said, will dramatically improve the communications capability of six major government agencies that share essential responsibilities for security and law enforcement in the border regions: the Frontier Corps, Home Departments of Balochistan and NWFP, the Coast Guard, and the Anti-Narcotics Force.
"The US government is very pleased to provide this assistance to a very important partner in the fight against terrorism, drugs, and other forms of criminality," said the US official.
Faisal thanked the US for handing over the communications equipment for safeguarding over 2,000 kilometre long porous western border with Afghanistan and Iran. He said the supply of these sophisticated equipment would certainly go a long way in preventing infiltration of terrorists, smuggling of narcotics and illicit arms from the countries on our western borders.
Return To Top December 18, 2002
A Piece of Bad News For Saddam A piece of bad news for Saddam
An editorial from the Arab News, written by Amir Taheri.
"Next year in Baghdad!" It is with this slogan of hope that the 350-plus delegates to the first ever conference of Iraqi opposition parties, held in London this week, parted after three days of intense formal and informal debates.
Most delegates believe that a war to topple President Saddam Hussein is now inevitable and most likely to come sometime next spring. Since they also believe that any war would be short - some say " just a couple of days" -, they feel confident that will be back home within the next few months.
The very fact that the conference was held must be regarded as a success. It brought together the representatives of virtually all shades of opinion in Iraq - from the nostalgics of the monarchy to Maoists, and passing by Shiite fundamentalists and pro-American liberals.
Also remarkable was the degree of support that the conference received from the international community. The Bush administration sent a special emissary in the person of Zalmay Khalilzad, the man who orchestrated the toppling of the Taleban in Kabul last year. The European Union also sent observers, as did Russia and China. More significantly, Iran and Turkey, two key neighbors of Iraq, sent emissaries to indicate support for the conference.
The Arab states, however, stayed away. But even they are reported to have expressed support "through private channels." "All the Arab states that count have said they support our initiative," a senior organizer of the conference told us. Not a single Arab state has indicated it would not work with a new government in Iraq."
The conference also succeeded in establishing such concepts as democracy, federalism, diversity and human rights as major themes in Iraqi politics. This represents a dramatic break with traditional Arab political discourse that has been dominated by concepts such as nationalism Third-Worldism and, in some cases, Islamism for the past four or five decades. The conference also offered Iraqi women a platform, sending a signal that post-Saddam Hussein Iraq will not reproduce the macho style of Arab politics.
Nevertheless, the conference suffered from a number of contradictions.
It emphasized the theme of separating religion from politics but ended up distributing seats in a coordination council - a kind of unofficial " government in exile" - on the basis of religious, even sectarian, affiliations. Organizers say they wished to sideline ethnic divisions. But choosing religious divisions, as demarcation lines is worse.
A wiser course would have been to distribute the seats in accordance with party affiliations, thus emphasizing the political factor. Since the parties indirectly reflect both ethnic and religious divides, the message would have been that such divisions should only be expressed in a political context.
The conference also missed an opportunity to influence the debate about how to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Some delegates made some noise about rejecting direct American military intervention. Others said they would be unhappy if the Americans imposed a military ruler on Iraq.
Nevertheless, the conference assumed that the task of removing Saddam Hussein is one for the US. The focus of the debate was about what happens after Saddam. This was unfortunate. Saddam's regime has become overthrowable, and could be toppled without a full-scale war effort led by the Americans.
Saddam maintains his hold on power thanks to three factors.
The first is his current monopoly of heavy weapons such as tanks, long-range artillery, aircraft, and helicopter gunships. If the US were to knock out these weapons, Saddam would become the leader of just another lightly armed faction in a country where there are dozens of such lightly armed factions.
Saddam also has a monopoly on the oil income. That gives him financial clout in a country where the normal economy has collapsed. Again if the Iraqi oil fields were to be wrested away from Saddam he would become one faction leader among many.
Saddam's third lever on power is the pathological fear he has instilled in a majority of Iraqis. That fear could evaporate quickly if and when Saddam suffers his first major defeat at the hands of his domestic opponents.
Thus a scenario in which the Iraqis themselves defeat Saddam, with the US providing heavy back-up support, is not excluded. The London conference, however, did not even consider it. How a regime falls is the key factor in determining what happens afterward. The conference did not understand that vital fact.
Nor did the conference make it clear that Iraq now is not what Germany and Japan were after their respective defeats in World War II. The Nazi and fascist regimes in Germany and Japan had had virtually no domestic opponents. Thus the victorious allies had no choice but to impose direct rule. In Iraq, however, virtually all Iraqi political forces oppose Saddam. Thus there is no need for direct American rule.
The conference made another mistake. It evoked the possibility of war crimes tribunals to judge Saddam and his key accomplices. This may be necessary at some point. But a proper representative government, not a group of opposition parties, must decide the issue. Iraqis have terrible memories of show-trials held by all regimes since the fall of the monarchy in 1958.
Nevertheless, the London conference must be regarded as a piece of bad news for Saddam Hussein. He now knows that he cannot play his usual tactic of bribing one Kurdish faction against another, thus splitting the opposition. He also sees the impossible happening in front of his eyes: Tehran and Washington acting as joint sponsors of a unified Iraqi opposition.
The struggle for Iraq is far from over. But the London conference has certainly made it that much more difficult for the present Iraqi regime to cling to power.
Return To Top December 17, 2002
Two Stories from Debka: Extracts
The full version of both stories can be found at .
US Diplomat Foley's killers were Palestinians
Jordanian information minister Mohammad Adwan fingered Saad bin Suwied and Yasser Ibrahim as the murderers who fired eight bullets from the silenced gun that slew USAID executive Lawrence Foley outside his home in Amman on October 28. Adwan described Suwied - a Libyan who entered Jordan on a Tunisian passport and Ibrahim, a Jordanian - as al Qaeda members who were paid $68,000 for the assassination.
According to the information reaching DEBKAfile's intelligence sources, the two assassins are not al Qaeda; they are in fact members of two Palestinian groups, who work in conjunction - the pro-Iraq Arab Liberation Front, whose leader Abu al Abbas is based in Baghdad, and the Jordanian wing of Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement. They were apprehended by Jordanian security forces in November in a sweep of the south Jordanian Islamic fundamentalist town of Ma'an. After a brief interrogation, the captured men admitted working for Palestinian groups operating in Jordan on behalf of Iraqi military...
Blix Is Too Late
UN Security Council resolution 1441 of November 8 gave the arms inspectors in Iraqi the right to interview in private any individual with information on the forbidden programs - if necessary by taking them and their families out of the country. However last week, Chief UN arms inspector Hans Blix declared flatly: "We are not going to abduct anybody, and we're not serving as a defection agency."
Saturday, December 14, Blix belatedly asked Iraq in writing to name the scientists associated with its chemical, biological, nuclear and long-range missile programs so that UN experts can interview them inside or outside the country. He gave Baghdad until the end of December to answer.
And Iraqi official said the list is in the works. But Saddam Hussein had no intention of allowing Iraqi scientists to be pumped for evidence of his unconventional weapons programs. Moving ahead of Blix, he had one group, whose members knew too much and were branded weak or unreliable by Iraqi intelligence,...
Return To Top December 17, 2002
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election From the Times of India Editor's Comment: Had the BJP lost Gujarat, the death-knell of the BJP led coalition at the Center might well have been sounded. The opposition Congress party rules 14 states, many more than the BJP. This victory, and its unexpectedly wide margin, will revive the BJP and elevate its fundamentalist wing, the VHP, to a key position of power within the party. If the BJP now seeks to heal the wounds inflicted by communal rioting earlier this year, the situation may still stabilize. If an anti-Muslim campaign is launched, then Gujarat will become, within five years, the next major Indian insurgency.
AHMEDABAD: Spearheaded by caretaker Chief Minister Narendra Modi and riding the crest of a Hindutva wave, the ruling BJP defied predictions of a modest victory by notching its best ever performance in Gujarat, winning 126 out of 181 seats in the 182-member Assembly This was a hat-trick of victories for the BJP in Gujarat, which had bagged 121 seats in 1995 and 117 in 1998. Though final vote percentages were not available, the BJP is believed to have got 51 per cent votes and the Congress 39. The BJP made a remarkable comeback from its rock-bottom position late last year, thanks mainly to the resurgence of Hindutva generated by the Godhra incident on February 27 and the clever harnessing of its potential by Modi himself. A shell-shocked Congress, which gave the impression that it had engaged the BJP in a neck-and-neck contest, came a poor second, winning only 51 seats. The Janata Dal (United) secured two seats while two were won by Independents. A triumphant Modi, who is credited with the incredible success, said later: "This was a victory of the five crore people of Gujarat, not just of the BJP." A bitter state Congress president Shankersinh Vaghela, whose son Mahendrasinh too lost the elections, said though he accepted the verdict of the people, the BJP's victory was "only because of the fact that it played upon the religious sentiments of the people". Though the Congress made some gains in Saurashtra and North Gujarat, these minor advances were not enough to offset the heavy losses it suffered in the riot-affected areas of Central Gujarat, including the adjoining tribal belt of Dahod, Panchmahals and Vadodara districts. In fact, the BJP made a clean sweep of all 26 seats in these three districts, where the Congress relied heavily on 'imported' workers from neighbouring Madhya Pradesh.Out of 65 constituencies that were affected by communal violence earlier this year, the BJP won 53, a clear indication of the influence of Hindutva in the riot zone even as the party and Modi himself made attempts to give credit to the government's performance over the last five years. Factors like anti-incumbency were in evidence in Saurashtra and North Gujarat but it was the influence of Hindutva which ultimately prevailed, it now appears. The Congress tried hard to focus on issues like water and power shortage in these areas, but succeeded only to a certain extent. In Saurashtra-Kutch, the Congress won 18 seats, up from just 6 seats in 1998, but fell far behind the BJP which won 39 seats. The only region that outrightly rejected the BJP was Kutch where problems relating to earthquake rehabilitation were of supreme importance. The BJP lost 4 out of 6 seats in the district. Modi himself won the Maninagar seat handsomely, by a margin of over 75,000 votes, and was set to remain the chief minister of the state. Modi went to the residence of Keshubhai Patel in Gandhinagar and sought his blessings by touching his feet. He visited the BJP headquarters in Ahmedabad later in the afternoon and was mobbed by enthusiastic supporters. There was despondency in the Congress camp which had dismissed the exit polls after polling on Thursday as a sham and attempts were already under way to find scapegoats for the defeat. On the other hand, there were huge celebrations at the BJP headquarters at Khanpur and at counting centres in all the 25 districts of the state. Victory processions were taken out by the BJP in all the district headquarters. Newly elected BJP MLAs will meet on Monday to elect Modi their leader. He would be sworn in on December 18 at a function likely to be attended by the PM and deputy PM.
Return To Top December 16, 2002
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists WASHINGTON: The Bush administration has prepared a list of terrorist leaders the CIA is authorised to kill, if capture is impractical and civilian casualties can be minimised, senior military and intelligence officials said. The previously undisclosed CIA list includes key al-Qaeda leaders like Osama bin Laden and his chief deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, as well as other principal figures from the outfit and affiliated terrorist groups, the officials said. The names of about two dozen terrorist leaders have recently been on the lethal force list, officials said. "It's the worst of the worst," an official said. President Bush has provided written legal authority to the CIA to hunt down and kill the terrorists without seeking further approval each time the agency is about to stage an operation. Officials said the terrorist list was known as the "high-value target list." A spokesman for the White House declined to discuss the list or issues involving the use of lethal force against terrorists. A CIA spokesman also declined to comment on the list. Despite the authority given to the agency, Bush has not waived the executive order banning assassinations, officials said. The presidential authority to kill terrorists defines operatives of al-Qaeda as enemy combatants and thus legitimate targets for lethal force. Bush issued a presidential finding last year, after the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, providing the basic executive and legal authority for the CIA to either kill or capture terrorist leaders. Initially, the agency used that authority to hunt for al-Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan. That authority was the basis for the CIA's attempts to find and kill or capture bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders during the war in Afghanistan. The creation of the secret list is part of the expanded CIA effort to hunt and kill or capture al-Qaeda operatives far from traditional battlefields, in countries like Yemen. The president is not legally required to approve each name added to the list, nor is the CIA required to obtain presidential approval for specific attacks, although officials said Bush had been kept well informed about the agency's operations. In November, the CIA killed an al-Qaeda leader in a remote region of Yemen. A pilotless Predator aircraft operated by the agency fired a Hellfire antitank missile at a car in which Qaed Salim Sinan al-Harethi, also known as Abu Ali, was riding. Harethi and five other people, including one suspected al-Qaeda operative with US citizenship, were killed in the attack.Harethi, who is suspected of helping to plan the bombing of the American destroyer Cole in 2000, is believed to have been on the list of al-Qaeda leaders that the CIA had been authorised to kill. After the Predator operation in Yemen, American officials said Bush was not required to approve the mission before the attack, nor was he specifically consulted. Intelligence officials said the presidential finding authorising the agency to kill terrorists was not limited to those on the list. The president has given broad authority to the CIA to kill or capture operatives of al-Qaeda around the world, the officials said. But officials said the group's most senior leaders on the list were the agency's primary focus. The list is updated periodically as the intelligence agency, in consultation with other counter-terrorism agencies, adds new names or deletes those who are captured or killed, or when intelligence indicates the emergence of a new leader. The precise criteria for adding someone to the list are unclear, although the evidence against each person must be clear and convincing, the officials said. The list contains the names of some of the same people who are on the FBI's list of most wanted terror suspects, although the lists are prepared independently.
Return To Top December 16, 2002
Dogs die to teach Peru's soldiers how to kill Forwarded by Gordon Angus MacKinlay, an article by David Harrison, Environment Correspondent of The Sunday Telegraph.
Barechested commandos brandishing knives take turns to charge towards a live
dog, tied and spreadeagled between vertical poles. They slash and stab the
helpless, yelping animal until it dies. Then, in a grotesque act of military
machismo, the soldiers eat the dog's heart and drink its blood.
The troops belong to the Peruvian army and the slaughter of the dog is the
climax of a series of "bravery tests" to train them to be ruthless killers.
The barbaric ritual has been uncovered by the World Society for the
Protection of Animals (WSPA), a British charity which last night expressed
disgust at the cruelty.
Jonathan Owen, a spokesman for the charity, said: "This is one of the worst
cases of animal cruelty we have ever come across. Unlike most other forms of
animal abuse, there is no commercial motive behind this.
"It is pure, unadulterated cruelty. They are using an animal that cannot
defend itself to practise killing. They call it war games but this game
always ends in the animal's death."
The cruelty was recorded by a cameraman who was invited to film the army's
Otorongo Command Group 125, near Lima, the Peruvian capital. Shocked by what
he saw, the cameraman passed the video to the WSPA.
The film shows the soldiers doing a number of other tests before they attack
the dog. These include running through a ring of fire, and standing in a
circle throwing a grenade to each other before one of them tosses it into
the middle and they all dive to the ground as it explodes.
For the final challenge the soldiers run 20 yards towards the suspended dog,
clutching an attack knife with an eight-inch blade. Some slash the animal
just once; the more enthusiastic stab it repeatedly.
The mongrel can move its head but is otherwise utterly defenceless. It can
only scream as the knives rip through its skin. Worse, the dog is a camp pet
that belongs to the soldiers, an extra detail to ensure that these killers
are rendered truly heartless, unhindered by emotion or sentiment.
Once the animal is dead and the soldiers have completed the test, they put
their hands into the open wounds, pull out the innards and heart, tear them
up and eat them.
The aim is to turn them into men who are not merely untroubled by the sight
of blood, but positively relish it.
The brutal ritual ends with one of the soldiers putting the dog around his
neck like a victory laurel and leading the troop on a "lap of honour" around
the training ground.
Maj-Gen Peter Davies, the WSPA's director general, said: "There is no
justification for such brutal training methods. Inflicting great suffering
on a helpless animal is unnecessary, unacceptable and has no place in any
civilised armed force."
The Peruvian government admits that live dogs have been used in military
training but claims that the practice has been banned since August. A
ministry of defence spokesman says that the exercise shown on the video took
place before the ban was introduced.
"The exercises shown on the video are currently strictly forbidden in all
Peruvian military institutions," the spokesman says. "At present no animals
are being used in exercises carried out during military training."
However, the WSPA believes the practice is still continuing. Gerardo
Huertas, the society's Latin America regional director, said: "Abuse of
animals by the military has been going on in Peru for decades and we believe
that it is also happening in other countries in Central and South America
and elsewhere.
"These images of young soldiers mutilating dogs until they die are
grotesque, a chilling reminder that we have to redouble our efforts to fight
against animal crimes all over the world.
"People who are trained to protect the civil, religious or democratic acts
of a nation should never be required to behave in such a way. It's
frightening to think what kind of people those soldiers will be when they
come out of the army."
Armando Lecaros-de-Cossio, Peru's ambassador to Britain, said that he was
shocked by the video. "No civilised person could condone what is happening
in that video," he said. Mr Lecaros-de-Cossio described himself as "an
animal-lover".
He had kept dogs for many years and was about to buy one for his 11-year-old
daughter Louise.
"Louise has been begging for a puppy from Scottie [a colleague's golden
retriever] and we hope that will be happening shortly. She adores dogs," he
said.
The Peruvian army is currently being investigated in connection with
atrocities committed during 20 years of fighting between security forces,
civilians and the brutal Sendero Luminoso - Shining Path - guerrillas.
Investigators belonging to a "Truth Commission" have exhumed the bodies of
dozens of villagers said to have been massacred by government troops and
guerrillas between 1980 and 2000.
The armed forces have so far failed to respond to the commission's
inquiries, even though 13,000 people have testified.
[We personally feel this last part of the article is unneccessary and irrelvant, a deliberate attempt to blacken the Peruvians further. The article adequately makes its point without invoking the investigations. We'd be interested to know if the Shining Path have also been summoned before the Truth Commission, and if so, how have they responded?]
Return To Top December 15, 2002
Two View of Pakistan and the US Two Views of Pakistan and the US
Both articles were forwarded by Ram Narayanan.
A US Ally: Valued Helping Hand in the Terror War
From the Washington Times, an article by Frank Anderson, a former chief of the Central Intelligence Agency's Near
East Division.
Mir Amal Kasi died more than a week ago in a Virginia execution chamber, rather
than surviving to gloat over his murder of CIA officers outside the Agency's
headquarters compound. Ramzi Yusuf, the mastermind of the first terrorist attack
on the World Trade Center, lives in the Metropolitan Corrections Center in New
York City, rather than being free to plot more mayhem. Senior al Qaeda leaders
Abu Zubaydah and Ramzi bin Al-Shibh and hundreds of their subordinates are in
U.S. custody, rather than planning for more terror. The government in
Afghanistan is friendly to the United States and does not harbor terrorist
organizations dedicated to our destruction. More strategically important, the
Soviet Union no longer exists as a threat to our very existence.
These are all unquestionably welcome developments that share a common
characteristic. None of them would now be true were it not for the efforts of a
little-known and less appreciated foreign intelligence organization, Pakistan's
Interservices Intelligence Directorate, "ISI."
We can't fight the war on terrorism by ourselves. Countering terrorism requires
forces in practically every nation in the world. These forces must have intimate
knowledge of local society and the kind of deep penetration of population that
only local police and intelligence organizations can develop. So, it is no
surprise that all the successes in the first year of our worldwide struggle
against terrorism have involved the effective and often courageous operations of
the intelligence and security services of other nations.
It is also no surprise that our cooperation with these services has aroused
controversy.
We Americans have a deep suspicion of "secret services" anywhere. International
cooperation, inevitably, involves engagement with states that are the rivals or
enemies of other nations that are also friendly to us. Greek-Americans or
Armenian-Americans are disturbed when we work closely with Turkey. Supporters of
Israel are uneasy about close ties between U.S. intelligence and the
intelligence services of any Arab states. American friends of India are made
uncomfortable by our cooperation with Pakistan.
There is no relationship in the war on terror that is more representative of
these uncomfortable realities than that between the ISI and U.S. intelligence
and military services. ISI is an intelligence service that is not subject to the
kind of open oversight that the we have come to expect over the CIA in the
United States. ISI has supported violence against India, as have the Indian
intelligence services supported violence in Pakistan.
Pakistan and India have been at war (sometimes declared, sometimes undeclared,
but always war) since the two nations were formed more than 50 years ago. Some
directors of ISI have had distinctly negative attitudes about the U.S. It is
certainly the case that ISI has never succeeded in winning friends in the
international journalist community. Yet, it is hard to identify an organization
anywhere in the world that has more positively contributed to U.S. aims in both
the Cold War against Soviet communism and, now, the war on terrorism.
ISI did the heavy lifting in our program to support the Afghans in their long
war to expel the Red Army from their country. That greatly accelerated the
collapse of the Soviet Union and of its evil empire.
ISI played crucial roles in the apprehension of Mir Amal Kasi and Ramzi Yusuf.
ISI provided critical support in the effort against Osama bin Laden and, after
September 11, in the destruction of the Taliban regime. ISI is now vitally
important to the ongoing fight against al Qaeda and Pakistani extremists who
support or shelter them.
Nevertheless, ISI is widely described as having favored extremists among the
Afghan fighters during the war against the Soviets, as being "rogue state within
a state" that supports extreme elements in Pakistan, as having been the "creator
of the Taliban."
None of these negative charges is, in fact, true. ISI, working with and closely
monitored by the U.S. during the war against the Soviets, distributed arms and
other support to Afghan groups on a roughly per capita basis. Afghan groups
received support in proportion to their size, not their ideology. ISI, rather
than being a "state within a state", is and always was led by officers who came
from and returned to the regular Pakistani military, whose orders ISI always
followed. The Taliban, to the extent that they were set up by any foreign
element, were not the creatures of ISI, but rather of Harvard alumna Benazir
Bhutto, her civilian police chief and financial backers in the Pakistani
trucking industry, who used the Taliban to secure shipping across Afghanistan.
One reason for ISI's negative image is, perhaps, their own reluctance to engage
the world press and present their "side of the story." As a result, journalists
and even U.S. and other diplomats get their "information" on ISI from sources
who are frequently hostile to ISI and always lack direct knowledge about the
organization and its activities.
Whatever the cause, it is important for continued success in the war on
terrorism and for the development of democracy in Pakistan that a more accurate
picture of ISI emerge.
ISI is one of the most competent and least corrupt institutions in South Asia.
We have to work effectively with it. That will be difficult if ISI's current
image isn't corrected and improved.
A US Enemy: Al-Qaida Suicide Teams Train in Pakistan
An Associated Press Story from the New York Times
Peshawar, Pakistan-- Suicide squads are being trained in Pakistan by
al-Qaida operatives to hit targets in Afghanistan and the bombers' families are
being promised $50,000, say Afghan and Pakistani sources.
The Pakistani government denies the presence of camps here. ``Nobody will ever
be able to either hide here or establish training camps in Pakistan,'' said
Interior Ministry spokesman Iftikar Ahmed.
But privately, some officials in Pakistan's intelligence community and Interior
Ministry say they believe there is such bomb training and that it is protected
by Pakistani militants and Taliban sympathizers in the Pakistan military.
The nephew of Maulvi Abdul Kabir, the Taliban's No. 3 man, says the training
camps are in Bajour and Mansehra, towns in Pakistan's North West Frontier
Province where support for the former Afghan regime runs strong.
The nephew asked that his name not be used, saying he feared retaliation from
both the Taliban and Pakistanis. He said he agreed to an exclusive interview
with The Associated Press on Tuesday because he believes suicide bombing is
wrong. He also seemed interested in getting U.S. attention and possibly a
reward.
There is a $10 million reward for Mullah Mohammed Omar, the deposed Taliban
leader, but not for most other Taliban officials. The nephew said he has not
talked to any U.S. official, and would not approach the Pakistanis because he
suspects they are in league with the Taliban.
Kabir's nephew had a video taken at a graduation ceremony in the southwestern
Pakistan city of Quetta where Kabir and several top Taliban leaders, including
former intelligence officials and governors, were present and some spoke. He
also had an audio cassette from speeches given at a mosque in Quetta in which
Kabir spoke on behalf of Mullah Omar, condemning the U.S. presence in
Afghanistan and calling on the faithful to wage a holy war against the
Americans.
During two weeks of training, would-be bombers are told by Arab instructors that
they are waging war on the Jews and ``will be martyrs and go straight to heaven
and their family will get $50,000,'' Kabir's nephew said.
They are trained in small groups and not all are told they must die, he said.
Some are taught to detonate bombs by remote control, and to drive
explosives-laden trucks into Afghanistan, he said.
So far two Afghans and one suspected al-Qaida operative trained at these camps
have infiltrated Afghanistan but have been arrested, the nephew said. He did not
know whether these were the same people whose arrest was announced by Afghan
authorities two months ago after they came from Pakistan in a car packed with
explosives.
The nephew said one of the men arrested was an Iraqi. Last month, an Iraqi man
was arrested in Kabul, the Afghan capital, but the nephew couldn't say whether
he was among those trained in Bajour, a tribal region bordering Afghanistan's
northeastern province of Kunar.
U.S. forces are scouring the mountains that crisscross Afghanistan's Kunar
province searching for Taliban and al-Qaida operatives, and for Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar, an Iranian-backed rebel commander.
A Western intelligence source in Pakistan also said training was going on in
Bajour and in Mansehra area. He said there had been reports that Hekmatyar
loyalists had purchased several vehicles for the purpose of carrying explosives.
Afghan, Pakistani and Western sources say Kabir has forged an alliance with
Hekmatyar, who is also being sought by the United States.
The AP also acquired books written in both Pashtu and Persian extolling the
virtue of carrying out suicide attacks. It cited verses from the Islamic holy
book, the Quran, to support suicide attacks. Most Muslim scholars, however, say
suicide is against Islamic teachings.
Reports of trained suicide squads surfaced last September when one of
Hekmatyar's military commanders, Salauddin Safi, told AP that some Taliban had
formed an alliance with Hekmatyar's followers, a view shared by Western
intelligence sources, who believe Kabir is working with Hekmatyar.
With money from al-Qaida and Iran, the two groups formed a new alliance called
Lashkar Fedayan-e-Islami, or the Islamic Martyrs Brigade, which Safi said would
target U.S. military installations.
In a separate interview, a man who served in the Cabinet of former Pakistani
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said Pakistan's army protects the Taliban.
``They have even given them their jeeps to get around safely. Why do you think
none of the top Taliban who came to Pakistan have been arrested?'' he said.
The nephew said Kabir is protected by Pakistan's intelligence and its military.
He travels freely throughout Pakistan, from its deeply Islamic tribal regions to
the southwestern city of Quetta and to Haripur, a city 35 miles north of
Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.
His entourage includes former Taliban governors, intelligence chiefs and, in
recent weeks, Maulvi Ghazi, special adviser to Mullah Omar, the nephew said.
Omar is high on the U.S. wanted list.
With the October election that gave religious hard-liners control of the
strategic provinces that border Afghanistan, fugitive Taliban have become
increasingly brazen, even launching fund-raising campaigns.
During the three-day Muslim festival of Eid al-Fitr that ended last weekend,
$50,000 was raised by former Taliban Maulvi Baram, the nephew said.
The Taliban even issue receipts, which say the money is for the Islamic Emirate
of Afghanistan, as the Taliban called the country.
Return To Top December 14, 2002
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption
From the Brookings Institute.
Building on a concept he articulated in a June 2002 speech at West Point,
President George W. Bush has adopted a new emphasis on preemption in his
administration's National Security Strategy (NSS), issued September 20,
2002. Preemption, defined as the anticipatory use of force in the face of
an imminent attack, has long been accepted as legitimate and appropriate
under international law. In the new NSS, however, the administration is
broadening the meaning to encompass preventive war as well, in which force
may be used even without evidence of an imminent attack to ensure that a
serious threat to the United States does not "gather" or grow over time.
The strategy also elevates preemption in importance, and visibility,
within the tool kit of U.S. foreign policy.
This policy brief examines the implications of this policy shift as well
as under which circumstances preemption, including the possibility of
preventive action, might actually be applied.
For a full copy of the policy brief, Return To Top December 13, 2002
From Stratfor.com, an Iraq analysis we can agree with. Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, who wonders if India is prepared for the momentous changes about to be wrought in the Middle East. The simple answer: the Government of India doesn't have a clue as to what's going on, leave alone be prepared. Editor.
The current struggle over the soul of the weapons inspection process in Iraq
must not divert attention from the primary strategic reality: The world's only
superpower has decided that the defeat and displacement of Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein's regime is in its fundamental national interest. That superpower
prefers that its allies and the United Nations concur with its position, but
this preference should not be mistaken for a requirement.
Washington is prepared to wait a reasonable length of time to procure that
support -- particularly since its own military strategy dictates that operations
should not begin until January. Nevertheless, regardless of the stance the U.N.
and U.S. allies have adopted, there is little doubt that the United States will
press forward and, in all likelihood, will defeat and occupy Iraq.
There are some negative reasons for this. It is no longer politically possible
for the Bush administration to abandon its quest. By this, we do not mean
"politically" in a domestic sense, although that is a consideration. Of far
greater importance are the political consequences the United States would incur
in the Islamic world if it did not carry out its threats against Iraq. Many have
pointed to the potential consequences of waging a war -- namely exciting greater
support for al Qaeda among the Islamic masses -- but public debate has neglected
to consider the consequences of inaction.
Al Qaeda persistently has argued that the United States is fundamentally weak.
From Beirut in the 1980s to Desert Storm, Somalia and now the Afghan war, the
United States, the argument goes, has failed to act decisively and conclusively.
Unwilling to take casualties, Washington either has withdrawn under pressure or
has refused to take decisive but costly steps to impose its will. Al Qaeda has
argued repeatedly that the United States should not be feared because, at root,
it lacks the will to victory.
Should the United States -- having made Iraq the centerpiece of its war-making
policy since last spring -- decline engagement this time, it would be another
confirmation that, ultimately, the United States lacks the stomach for war and
that increasing the pressure on Washington is a low-risk enterprise with high
potential returns. In other words, at this point, the political consequences of
failing to act against Iraq might reduce hatred of the United States somewhat
but will increase contempt for it dramatically.
Machiavelli raised the core question: Is it better for a prince to be loved or
feared? He answered the question simply -- love is a voluntary emotion; it comes
and it goes, but it is very difficult to impose. Moreover, it is an emotion with
unpredictable consequences. Fear, on the other hand, is involuntary. It can be
imposed from the outside, and the behavior of frightened people is far more
predictable. This is the classic political problem the United States faces
today. Washington cannot possibly guarantee the love of the Islamic world.
Therefore, it cannot guarantee that if it does not attack Iraq, Islamic hatred
for the country will subside. But it is certain that if it does not attack, fear
of the United States will decline. According to this logic, the United States
cannot decline war at this point.
War is the issue; voluntary regime change is not. It is not only important that
Hussein's government fall, it is equally important that the United States be
seen as the instrument of its destruction and the U.S. military the means of his
defeat. Given the logic of its strategy, the United States must defeat the Iraqi
army overwhelmingly and be seen as imposing its will. It must establish its
military credibility decisively and overwhelmingly.
The reasons go beyond transforming the psychology of the Islamic world. The
United States has direct military reasons for needing to defeat Iraq in war.
From Washington's viewpoint, any outcome must allow the United States to occupy
Iraq with its own military forces. This is not because it needs to govern Iraq
directly, although demonstrating control over a defiant Islamic country would
support its interests. Nor is oil the primary issue, although this would give
the United States some serious bargaining power with allies. The primary reason
is geography.
If we look at a map, Iraq is the most strategic country between the Levant and
the Persian Gulf. It shares borders with Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Iran, Kuwait
and, most of all, Saudi Arabia. If the United States were to occupy Iraq, it
would be there by right of conquest. Unlike any other country in the region, the
United States would not have to negotiate with an occupied Iraq. It would have
ample room for deploying air power in the heart of the region. More important,
it would be able to deploy a substantial ground force capable of bringing
pressure to bear within a 360-degree radius. Within a matter of months, the
United States would become the most powerful military force native to the
region.
Consider some of the consequences. For example, the Saudi royal family currently
is caught between two fears: the fear of al Qaeda sympathizers inside and
outside the family and fear of the United States. On the whole, officials in
Riyadh fear al Qaeda sympathizers somewhat more than they fear the United
States. They will attempt to placate the United States, but they are not
prepared to make the kind of fundamental, internal changes needed to act
meaningfully against al Qaeda sympathizers.
With several U.S. armored divisions on the nation's borders, however, the Saudi
calculus must change. When Iraq deployed forces against Saudi Arabia, Riyadh
relied upon the United States to protect its interests. If U.S. forces deploy on
its borders, who will come to Saudi Arabia's aid then? Riyadh's assumption
always has been (1) that the United States, concerned about Iraq and Iran, could
not turn on Saudi Arabia and (2) that the United States lacked the military
means to turn on it. All of that is true -- unless the United States has
occupied Iraq, has control of the Iranian frontier and perceives Saudi Arabia as
a direct threat because it has failed to control al Qaeda. The Saudi fear factor
then would change dramatically and so, one suspects, would its actions.
Similarly, the threat to Iran from U.S. ground and air forces also has been
extremely limited. Iran's western frontier has been secure since Desert Storm,
and the country has been relatively insulated from U.S. power. Domestic affairs
have developed in relative security from the United States or any external
threat. If the United States occupies Iraq, the Iranian reality will be
fundamentally changed. This does not mean that Iran will become pro-American --
quite the contrary, it might retreat into rigidity. But it will not stay the
same.
Following a war in Iraq, the United States would become the defining power in
the Middle East and Persian Gulf. It is difficult to imagine any coalition of
regional nation-states that could emerge either to oust or control the United
States. Even in the event that a tide of anti-Americanism ripped the region
apart, the objective strategic equation would not permit a coalition of regional
forces to mount a substantial challenge to the United States. To the contrary,
Washington would be in a position to manipulate the region on an unprecedented
scale. It also would be able to mount operations against al Qaeda throughout the
region much more effectively than it can today and, we should add, without
requesting permission.
The downside of this strategy is obvious and much-discussed. Hatred and
resentment of the United States will run deep, and this undoubtedly will
generate more recruits for al Qaeda, at least in the short run. Certainly, al
Qaeda will continue its strategy of striking at U.S. targets where and when it
can. If the United States attacks Iraq against European wishes, the Europeans
potentially might withdraw intelligence collaboration, thus increasing U.S.
vulnerability. These are not trivial concerns, and Washington takes them
seriously.
But ultimately, Washington appears to believe that the upside of an occupied
Iraq trumps the downside.
1. It is true that al Qaeda recruitment might rise, but al Qaeda does not have a
problem with recruitment now. Not only do its core operations not require large
numbers of operatives, but in fact, they cannot use large numbers because they
depend upon stealth and security, both of which make large-scale recruitment
impossible. It will be difficult to turn intensified hatred into intensified,
effective operations. Random attacks in region doubtless will increase, but this
will be a tolerable price to pay. Ultimately, al Qaeda already operates at its
structural capacity and cannot capitalize on increased sympathy for its cause.
2. Any government in the region will have to reassess the fundamental threat it
faces. With a U.S. presence in Iraq, Saudi leaders, for example, will
recalculate their interests. A pro-al Qaeda government would become the target
of a very real U.S. regional power. A neutral government would come under
tremendous U.S. pressure, including the threat of attack. Governments -- and not
only that in Saudi Arabia -- would find it in their interest to suppress the
growth of al Qaeda sympathies, in collaboration with the United States.
3. European states will not abrogate relations with the United States no matter
what it does in Iraq. Ultimately, al Qaeda and militant Islam are as much a
threat to Europe as to the United States. Ending intelligence cooperation with
the United States would hurt Europe at least as much as Washington. Moreover,
Europe is vulnerable to the United States in a range of economic areas. A
successful operation in Iraq, once concluded, would create a new reality not
only in the region but globally. The Europeans might accelerate development of
an integrated defense policy -- but then again, even this might not happen.
The U.S. view, therefore, apparently is that a post-war world in which U.S.
forces operating out of Iraq establish a regional sphere of influence -- based
on direct military power -- is the foundation for waging a regional war that
will defeat al Qaeda. The United States does not expect to obliterate either al
Qaeda or related groups, but it does expect to be able to further contain the
network's operations by undermining the foundations of its support and basing in
the region. Washington also would be able to control the regional balance of
power directly, rather than through proxies as it currently must. In effect, the
era in which Washington must negotiate with a state like Qatar in order to carry
out essential operations will end.
What is most interesting here is that, ultimately, it doesn't matter whether the
Bush administration has clearly thought through these consequences. The fact is
that no matter Washington's intent, the conquest of Iraq will have this outcome.
History frequently is made by people with a clear vision, but sometimes it is
the result of unintended consequences. In the end, history takes you to the same
place. However, in our view, the Bush administration is quite clear in its own
mind about how the region will look after a U.S.-Iraq war. We suspect that the
risks are calculated as well.
1. The United States might get bogged down in a war in Iraq if enemy forces
prove more capable than expected and -- facing high casualties in Baghdad --
Washington might be forced to accept an armistice that would leave it in a far
worse position psychologically and geopolitically than before.
2. The consequences of U.S. occupation might be the opposite of what is
expected. A broad anti-U.S. coalition could form in the region, and al Qaeda
might use the changed atmosphere to increase its regional influence and to
intensify anti-U.S. operations.
3. European leaders actually might shift from making speeches to supplying
direct military support for Saudi Arabia and other states in the region against
the United States.
4. Prior to an attack, U.S. public opinion might shift massively against a war,
making it impossible for the United States to act. Once again, the superpower
would appear to be all talk, no action.
Officials in Washington believe none of these things will happen. This view
ultimately will prove either correct or incorrect. But in understanding what is
transpiring with Iraq, this must be understood as the core U.S. perception. It
is what drives the United States forward. From Washington's point of view, this
is the clearest path to taking the initiative away from al Qaeda and reshaping
regional power in such a way as to deny it effective sanctuary -- even though
this strategy undoubtedly will spawn further hatred of the United States.
Return To Top December 13, 2002
Scuds and Dud Stories Yemen said it was the owner of the Scud missiles intercepted by the Spanish Navy and the United States agreed it had no right to prevent delivery. That put an end to speculation that an extra-governmental organization had bought the missiles. That leave only on thing to be explained, why North Korea shipped the consignment in a false-flag vessel, hidden under 40,000 bags of cement. Arab News reported that a Spanish official in Madrid said that 15 Scud missiles, 15 conventional warheads, 23 tanks of nitric acid rocket propellant and 85 drums of unidentified chemicals had been found hidden.
Return To Top December 12, 2002
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
All Skopje has become accustomed to seeing a 45-year old man clad in a long white robe and flak jacket pushing his cart around the food shelves of the big Vero department store almost every Wednesday or Thursday of the week. Two hand grenades are stuck in the jacket's front pockets and a Kalashnikov automatic rifle slung across his back. Most of Vero's customers and staff know him to be one of 30 wanted top al Qaeda and Hizballah operatives hiding in the Crna Gora mountains north of the capital, near the Kosovo border. The Macedonian army and NATO forces policing the Kosovo Macedonia frontier have thrown out an extensive dragnet for their capture. Yet none of the hunters has ever waylaid the frequent shopper or followed him to his hideout.
Again, the reason is simple. Those 30 terrorists are under the protection of Ali Ahmeti, formerly a key commander of the National Liberation Army (NLA), who went into national Macedonian politics by running for election on September 15 at the head of the new Albanian Democratic Party. The European Union-brokered Ohrid peace accord, signed in 2001 to halt ethnic Albanian insurrectionist violence, provided for its ringleader to enjoy a power sharing arrangement in Macedonia. In return, he pledged to renounce civil strife and turn his back on organized crime and his Islamist terrorist associations.
Ahmeti was also supposed to hand over the names of the 30 terror chiefs hiding in the hills.
The Albanian rebel chief, since gaining his seat in parliament, has not honored a single one of his promises. He did not disarm his militia and, while handing over 30 names, which still have to be checked, he claimed he never agreed to their detention.
Moreover, since the signing of the Ohrid accord, the guerrilla leader turned politician has opened the door wide to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda and allied terrorist groups from the Middle East. Neither Macedonian police officers nor international peacekeepers dare venture into parts of Tetovo and most of the villages strung along Macedonia's western frontier. The coalition of Islamist terrorists who rule that area pose a rising threat of extremist Muslim penetration to other parts of former Yugoslavia and their European neighbors, while turning Macedonia into their launching pad for terrorist attacks across Europe.
However, the European governments who brokered the accord are restraining NATO and Macedonian forces from going after the al Qaeda and Hizballah leaders, fearing the Macedonian government will fall and the country revert to civil bloodshed between Macedonian Slavs and militant Albanians.
In any case it might be too late for a limited operation. Local Skopjans report that the 30 wanted men have multiplied, joined in their Crna Gora mountain enclave by a small army of some thousand fighting men, who can be heard practicing in the use of automatic weapons, grenades and explosives.
Al Qaeda's reach from Skopje to Karachi, southern Pakistan, was highlighted on December 5, when the Macedonian honorary consulate building was blown up. The bodies of three Pakistanis were found, all murdered before the explosion. Their deaths are regarded as revenge for the deaths of seven Pakistanis suspected of plotting terrorist attacks on Western embassies in Skopje on behalf of al Qaeda. Macedonian police hunted them down last April and killed them in a gun battle north of Skopje.
Return To Top December 12, 2002
AHMEDABAD: Gujarat will not just be electing its 10th legislative assembly on Thursday. The 32-million voters of the state could well determine the course of national politics in a matter of nine hours, in what is being described as the most crucial state assembly election ever in Indian political history. The high-voltage campaign, which saw the who's who of politics down from the prime minister to a Congress sarpanch from faraway Bastar descend on this industrialised hub, will fructify by 5 pm on Thursday and hold people on the edge for another two days before the nearly 37,000 electronic voting machines rattle off the results in a jiffy on Sunday. Regardless of the fact that both the BJP and the Congress launched the campaign promising not to raise Godhra [the scene of an alleged attack by Muslims against Hindus on a train, triggering massacres of Muslims] , the issues of terrorism and security took centrestage throughout the campaign even as the Congress dragged it back to the BJP's performance over the last four-and-a-half years. Both the BJP and the Congress fought the campaign in unison with their 'B' teams - the VHP in the case of the BJP and the army of NGOs and Gandhians for the Congress. A high-voter turnout is guaranteed on Thursday with appeals coming from even religious outfits for 100 per cent voting in favour of one party or another. Police are not taking any chances, considering the emotive slant of the campaign and the possibility of huge crowds gathering at the booths which could spark off trouble, especially in areas which were affected by the riots earlier this year. Nearly 55,000 security personnel, many of them from the central paramilitary forces, have been deployed all over Gujarat with additional reinforcements in over 14,000 sensitive booths. In many riot-hit areas, special booths have been set up for communities afraid of venturing out too far from their homes.
Return To Top December 12, 2002
US naval commander visits Siachin Glacier
From Pakistan's Jang.
NEW DELHI: Admiral Thomas Fargo, chief of the US Pacific Command, on Thursday flew to the Siachin glacier, where Indian and Pakistan troops often trade heavy fire, an official said.
Commander Fargo is in India as part of a growing military-to-military relationship, which received a boost after India joined the US-led coalition against terrorism, the official said.
Atop snowbound Siachen, the admiral reviewed the Line of Control (LoC), the official said. The admiral was flown to a military base camp at an altitude of 20,000 feet on the Siachen, which is also described as the world's highest battlefield. "Fargo was given an extensive briefing on how Pakistan use the rugged mountainous terrain to sneak militants into Kashmir," an official from the defense ministry said in New Delhi.
Fargo's visit to the Siachen came amid critical negotiations between India and the United States for the supply of American-made ground sensors to track cross-border infiltrators in held Kashmir.
Return To Top December 12, 2002
British Expert Says Iraq Attack Inevitable
From the Islamic Republic New Agency
A [British] expert on Middle East Affaires Dr. Toby
Dodge predicted the timing of a military action against Iraq as early
as February next year.
Speaking at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in
London, Dodge said " There would be an air war in mid-January and
then an invasion in February. Violent regime change will involve an
intense aerial bombardment of Iraq for anything up to three weeks, an
invasion by 250 thousand troops and up to 20 to 30 thousand civilian
deaths"
The research fellow at the University of Warwick, predicting
the details of the war he believes would take place soon without
giving any specific reason or evidence to back his timetable.
In his lecture entitled "the imposition of sanctions against
Iraq" Dr. Dodge argued that from the very beginning that the West
through the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iraq, it was aiming to
change the regime in Baghdad and insisted that this objective still
remains a priority for the US and British government since the
sanctions didn't work out the way they were expecting.
The West, Britain and the US in particular were planning to
undermine and overthrow the regime from inside by imposing economic
sanctions against the country and therefore exerting pressure on
Saddam Hussein.
Not only they didn't reach their aim but also they prepared the
rounds for Saddam's growth of power. This was through Saddam's
monopoly over the distribution of food and goods which convinced any
Iraqi not to contemplate about rebelling against the unjust ruler if
he was not to loose his portion and ration of food coming to him from
that ruler whose overthrow was believed to be a risk to their
survival, argued the member of Economic and Social Research Council
(E.S.R.C).
He added, the sanctions that resulted in Saddam's growth of power
- both militarily and economically - even helped him to engage in
developing his weapons of mass destruction and stressed that Iraq is
the only country that despite the imposition of sanctions has managed
to boost its military capabilities.
Referring to the US policy and that regime change in Iraq has
always been a priority in Bush Senior, Bill Clinton and now Bush
Junior's administration, Dodge went on to say that since the
international law forbids regime change but on the contrary strongly
supports disarmament, the US has repeatedly concentrated on the issue
of disarming Iraq in the international community and the United
Nations rather than its main objective which surely is regime change.
Saddam is well aware of this fact and therefore sees no reason of
giving up its WMD. He then referred to his interview with Tariq Aziz
where he told him that "West's disarmament policy is just a pretext
for regime change and therefore we will not give up our weapons so
that at least we could defend ourselves in the event of an attack".
Toby Dodge further added that the US and Britain have no clear
idea of what they want to do with a post-war Iraq and as a result have
always refused to answer this question that what responsibilities they
are ready to take after they have conquered the country.
They know that Iraq unlike many other countries inhabits three
major homogeneous groups who oppose the rule of one another and
therefore a possible chaos in a post-war Iraq is not hard to see, Dr.
Dodge, the Middle East expert concluded.
Return To Top December 12, 2002
Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen
Excerpts from the Jeruslame Post, an Associated Press report.
WASHINGTON - A ship carrying a dozen Scud-type missiles from North Korea was intercepted in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday, US officials said. They said the missiles were believed to be headed for Yemen.
The ship was stopped and boarded about 600 miles (960 kilometers) east of the Horn of Africa, the officials said.
US intelligence had been tracking the vessel closely, said US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The ship contained about a dozen short-to medium-range missiles, similar to the Scud missiles used by Iraq in the Gulf War, the officials said. It also contained missile parts.
The ship "had another flag, but it was a North Korea ship," the official said.
The ship was held in the area while the search continued. Officials said the shipment did not appear to be headed for Iraq.
Additional Information
ABC-TV reports that a Spanish Navy vessel performed the actual interception. The US had been tracking the ship for three weeks. The missiles were found hidden under cement, the declared cargo of the ship. ABC speculated that since the missiles cost "a lot of money", someone with ample resources was involved.
CNN reports that the ship tried to flee and the Spanish frigate Navara fired shots to prevent it from doing so. "At least" a dozen missiles have been found, and the US is reported as "99 percent" sure the So San, a stateless vessel with a North Korean crew ship was bound for Yemen.
Yemen purchased six Scud launchers and 18 missiles in 1999-2000.
[If the cargo was intended for the Yemen Government, it would not need to be hidden. Yemen and the US are allies, moreover, no international sanction exists for anyone to stop arms shipments to Yemen. The US says it is certain the cargo was not Iraq bound. It would appear an extra-governmental agency purchased the missiles; if so, North Korea would appear to have put itself into major trouble with the US. Editor]
Return To Top December 11, 2002
Bharat-Rakshak, the leading discussion forum on Indian defense, reports that India has activated a new corps, XVII Corps. The person posting coyly refused to give a location as this would help the Pakistanis, which baffled us somewhat because both India and Pakistan are very quick to identify new formations on or near the border. The poster says the corps will have two divisions and two independent armored brigades, which indicates it will take over the Samba-Kathua-Pathankot area, reducing XVI Corps at Jammu to something approaching a normal corps frontage.
Your editor might have been the first to publicly call for this new corps in the late 1980s, though the need was evident to anyone looking at a map. When XVI Corps was raised in 1972, it had three infantry divisions and two armored brigades. By mid-2002, it had grown to four regular infantry divisions, two of them overstrength, three independent armored brigades, and two division sized counter-insurgency forces, equal to a strength of 8 divisions, plus additional troops dispatched from time to time depending on the ebb and flow of the insurgency in the Jammu region. In the 2001-2002 mobilization crisis, as always, India had to send in reinforcements, one corps HQ plus elements of two divisions, possibly three divisions.
The new corps would be the Army's thirteenth, coming after the raising of XIV Corps at Leh after the Kargil episode of 1999.
Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington
We were very curious as to what Debka might have to say the Ginossar scandal. Below is an article dated December 9 from Debka. Editor.
On instructions from attorney general Elyakim Rubinstein, the Israeli police have begun investigating the business dealings of former Shin Beit officer Yossi Ginossar with Palestinian leaders, to determine if there are grounds for a criminal investigation.
Ginossar says his business ties with Yasser Arafat's top officials, especially his personal financial adviser Mohammad Rashid, were public knowledge, entailed no illegal actions and were found useful by four Israeli prime ministers. "Muhammad Rashid never dealt in terrorism," Ginossar assured weekend interviewers.
The veteran secret agent turned businessman served as unofficial go-between with the Palestinian Authority for the late Itzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak. However, Rubinstein advised Ariel Sharon when he succeeded Barak in 2001 to refrain from using Ginossar's services except in extreme matters of life and death, because of a possible conflict of interests.
The primary allegation against him, published by Tel Aviv daily Maariv Friday, was that a company owned by Ginossar and his business partner, Ezrad Lev, advised Rashid (and therefore Arafat) on his business investments against commissions. Lev, who has turned against his partner, accused Ginossar of paying kickbacks to Rashid. He claimed that $300 million of Palestinian revenue was secretly transferred to a Swiss bank account of which $65 m had disappeared.
This missing sum has been the subject of investigations by the United States and the European donors.
The president's Rose Garden speech on June 24, as DEBKAfile was authoritatively informed at the time, signaled the exit of the Palestinian Authority under Arafat's leadership and, more than anything, a resolve to put an end to the corrupt financial structure through which Arafat personally funded his terror movement. The president's demand for reforms and transparency in Palestinian government also targeted the Israeli "business channel" to the Palestinian Authority, which hs been active since the 1993 Oslo peace accords. Rashid was singled out - not only as manager of Arafat's secret funds, but as the senior bankroller of his terror networks and directly involved in the arms smuggling shipment aboard the Karine-A arms smuggling that was aborted last January.
Detailed information on Rashid's role in the terror movement was volunteered to the US government, according to an exclusive account from DEBKAfile's Washington sources, by Muhammed Dahlan, former chief of Palestinian preventive security in the Gaza Strip and currently Arafat's national security adviser. Dahlan needs to buy immunity, according to the same sources, after American raids in Zagreb, Bosnia, turned up documents naming Dahlan as the live wire in exchanges between Arafat and Osama bin Laden that took place as early as 1995, when the al Qaeda leader was still operating out of Khartoum.
Dahlan has been relaying information to Washington ever since.
According to our sources in Washington, a decision was taken to make an example of Ginossar as a cautionary message to Israeli business interests to withdraw from dealings with the Palestinians - especially the partnerships in the monopolies supplying essential products to the Palestinian Authority that grew out of the Oslo accords.
The message from Washington came loud and clear: Drain the money swamp that sustains Palestinian terror. Break up the Israeli-Palestinian monopolistic partnerships.
DEBKAfile recalls that under the Oslo accords, those monopolies were set up as Israel government-approved partnerships between Palestinian entrepreneurs close to Arafat and Israeli business interests associated with the architects of those accords. They were to be the fulcrum for the Rabin-Peres leadership's vision of a new Middle East, where the prosperity shared by the former adversaries was to act as a disincentive for violence and increase mutual dependence on peace.
The revenues from monopolies on basic commodities like petroleum, flour, cement, paint, iron, foodstuffs, minerals and the now shuttered Oasis Casino in Jericho were - and still are - split between the two sides and also form the basis of a strong political alliance. Israeli entrepreneurs seeking to do business with the Palestinians had to channel their applications through Ginossar under an arrangement with his opposite number Rashid who was committed to blocking any direct approach. Four years ago, the attorney general began railing against the system of kickbacks that grew out of the shared monopoly structure. Some of those Israeli businessmen disappeared from the public scene; at least two left the country.
The police investigation ordered last week is aimed at getting to the bottom of how the Israeli-Palestinian monopolies system worked and who profited from them, a project that could jolt a few high-placed individuals and groups.
While the Bush administration will not damage Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon in the run-up to the Iraq War, the Ginossar case is also a signal to certain members of his close circle, who were drawn into the Oslo business channel and continue to sponsor Rashid and Dahlan. The most prominent is the Tel Aviv lawyer Dov Weissglass, who was appointed this year as head of staff in the prime minister's office and known to have been involved with Arafat's Austrian partner, Martin Schlaff, in the Oasis Casino. The casino was opened in Palestinian-ruled territory in 1998 as a money spinner. It was shut down two years later after Palestinian gunmen shot at Israeli civilians and troops from one of its windows.
According to DEBKAfile's Washington sources, the US government is particularly interested in the transactions that went on around the casino, and has begun discreetly investigating an unexplained discrepancy: While the gambling palace's revenues totaled $50-60,000 a day, the amount banked was ten times larger, between $500,000 and $800,000. The investigation wants to find out where did the unaccounted portion of those deposits came from? And where did it go?
Nonetheless, Weissglass continues to boast of his good relations with Rashid. On recent visits to Washington, he angered the president's national security adviser Dr. Condoleezza Rice by tipping Dahlan and Rashid as favorites for the reformed Palestinian government.
The former defense minister and Labor leader, Binyamin Ben Eliezer walked into the same pit on his only visit to Washington. He informed the White House that his plan for pacifying the Gaza Strip, then Bethlehem and later Hebron was based on understandings with Dahlan. He was not invited again and a short time later, his career drew to a close.
His successor as Labor leader, Amram Mitzna, may go the same way if he insists on negotiating with the Palestinians "as if there is no terror." Some of his most powerful sponsors belong to the Oslo group of entrepreneurs.
Arafat first tested his scheme for enmeshing his enemies in the toils of vested business interests in Lebanon of the seventies. He drew Christian Phalange leaders into joint business ventures in drugs, arms smuggling and protection racketeering, while at the same time kindling civil war. Those interests prevented the Phalange from finishing Arafat off and ended up wiping the Lebanese Christians out as a ruling power in the land. Arafat worked the same gambit in the rosy aftermath of the Oslo Accords, marking out his adversaries in Israel's security and intelligence services and drawing their superiors in civilian authority into lucrative monopolistic transactions that came to be controlled by Ginossar and Rashid.
While the terror war raged and ravaged the Israeli economy, huge amounts of cash poured into Arafat's war chest. Israel's good name was marred, while the Palestinian economy was starved of investors and business entrepreneurs who were put to flight by the monopoly system and rampant corruption. Hungry and bereft of means of livelihood, many young Palestinians are easily lured into Arafat's cycle of suicidal terror. They have nothing to lose and their families stand to gain from the lavish reparations offered by the Iraqi ruler and Saudi sources.
Return To Top December 10, 2002
Washington Gathers Own Evidence of Saddam's WMD
This is another Caveat Emptor sort of article by Debka.. As always, good fun, and some parts possibly even somewhat true. Editor.
Running circles around the UN arms inspection headed by Swedish diplomat Hans Blix, the Iraqi government dropped a massive pile of documents - its reply to the UN Security Council demand for a full accounting of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction - in the laps of the international media Saturday, December 7, before allowing Blix a peek. The presentation was accompanied by yet another formal denial that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction.
The 11,880 pages on CD-Rom, landing with a thud in Baghdad, will not reach UN Headquarters in New York before late Sunday, exactly on the dot of the Security Council deadline.
Saddam's demonstration of openness is in fact another exercise in obfuscation. It will take the world media and the world body days to digest the forbidding mass, particularly when parts are in Arabic and sections are historic and will need to be matched up. It also makes sly fun of Blix's solemn pledge to hold back sensitive nuclear, chemical and biological data that might be used as recipes for the proliferation of such weapons - even from Security Council members, including the United States.
Washington in any case had no expectation of substance from the UN inspectors.
Thursday, December 5, the White House declared it already had "solid evidence" that Iraq does indeed have weapons of mass destruction. Where did that evidence come from?
This project is in the hands of a special multinational task force made up of special elite units and armed with combat helicopters and aircraft, spy-planes and satellites. Unlike the Blix outfit, which is based in Baghdad, the alternative investigators are fanned out across the country. One well-placed source disclosed: "Our men in the field know where 90 percent of Saddam's missiles and unconventional weapons systems are located, even the mobile ones that are moved from place to place every hour. We are keeping them under tight, on-site observation because when the war begins we want to be there before Saddam orders his men to hit the triggers."
According to our sources, this highly sensitive, elaborate and secret inspection project has been going for more than three months. Its success could pre-determine the course of the war before it begins. Its members are drawn from the United States, Britain, Jordan and Turkey and possibly Israel. They operate under the Special Forces command at Al Udeid in Qatar and its sub-command in the Jordanian base of Mafraq.
For the purpose of the search, Iraq has been divided into 16 squares, each the province of an elite unit for a set period. The Talil air base complex in north Iraq, for instance, with its air fields, missile bases and air defense batteries, was assigned for the first three weeks of December to US special forces.
When these units end their tour of duty, they return to base and are replaced.
All the units on this mission are briefed down to the last detail on the unconventional weapons in their zone, their precise locations and the names of the Iraqi officers and men assigned to each site. They keep watch around the clock over the comings and goings inside those sites and are on the ready at all times to move in and seize the facility if ordered to do so.
Conscious of those watchful eyes, the Iraqis have made almost all their weapons systems mobile and shift them perpetually. Each of these elite units is afforded broad autonomy of action. They may call up reinforcements as needed, or air assistance from their home base. The Turkish northern Iraqi observation unit, for example, is in the care of the south Turkish military command. Any urgent medical aid requirement will therefore be supplied by the Turkish air force.
However, when aerial bombardment is called for to prevent the movement of weapons from one square to another, or air cover is required in the frequent cases of the special units coming under artillery or tank gun fire, the request for aerial assistance is routed through the US headquarters in Qatar or Jordan and US and UK warplanes scramble to raid Iraqi military targets.
Most of the dozens of "Western" or "allied" air sorties against Iraqi ground targets that are reported every few days are connected, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources can reveal, with Iraq's maneuvers for concealing its weapons of mass destruction.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources say that this invisible arms inspection project has a dual purpose: it locks suspected weapons of mass destruction in position under close observation; it harvests the data inaccessible to the UN inspection teams and holds it ready for the Bush administration whenever it is called for.
The White House is therefore able to call on General Tommy Franks, commander of the Iraqi sector, to produce the evidence needed to prove Iraq's mountainous declaration false. All the general needs do is to order the elite unit guarding any one of the 16 squares to seize a weapons system, possibly with its Iraqi crew.
Since no one has any notion of how Saddam Hussein will react to this denouement, all American and allied forces in the Middle East and the Gulf were put on a high state of preparedness as of Wednesday, December 4. General Franks' arrival at the Qatari rear base of Al Udeid on Friday, December 6, was timed accordingly.
The story going around the Gulf, according to DEBKAfile's sources, is that in the week since the UN inspection team started work, it has been well penetrated by Iraqi agents.The most disturbing aspect of this - and the reason for the sharp responses coming from the White House - is that the spies have managed to fit "electronic jackets" on the UN measuring instruments, which throw them off and make them emit false data. The technical assistants, some from Arab countries, are also thoroughly infiltrated by Iraqi intelligence.
Return To Top December 10, 2002
Think Before Jumping On Saudi-Bashing Bandwagon Think Before Jumping On Saudi-Bashing Bandwagon
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, an article in the Christian Science Monitor by Mansoor Ijaz.
Editor's Note. Mr. Mansoor Ijaz is a suave, good-looking, and rich unofficial spokesperson for Pakistan. Plus he speaks flawless American. He is quite the bete noir for the Indian community. Below he presents an interesting take on Saudi Arabia. Mr. Narayanan's main concern in forwarding this and excerpts from Mr. Bruce Riedel's paper [see below] is to say that Mr. Riedel nowhere says India was preparing for a nuclear strike, whereas Pakistan was. Given the amount of deliberate disinformation in Washington, used to beat India and Pakistan over the head and to expand American influence in the subcontinent, its hard to say how accurate Mr. Riedel - or Mr. Mansoor - are in their statements.
NEW YORK - The media firestorm that erupted last week over whether Princess
Haifa al Faisal, wife of Saudi Arabia's longtime ambassador to Washington and
daughter of the late King Faisal, channeled official Saudi government funds to
two of the Sept. 11 hijackers demonstrates the growing desperation in America to
find a Saudi scapegoat to replace the still-talking head of public enemy No. 1,
Osama bin Laden.
It also highlights a structural incompatibility in the US-Saudi relationship:
America's newfound, if somewhat hypocritical, need for transparency in political
and financial dealings with a tribal society characterized by opaque
paternalistic tradition.
Few caught up in the Saudi-bashing have paused to consider the constructive role
Riyadh has played - and can still play - in important geopolitical events.
America has precious few friends in Islam's inner circle today. And it can ill
afford to alienate those left at its side who understand US idiosyncrasies and
can comprehensibly translate them into policies that dismantle from within the
Islamist terrorism enterprise bent on destroying the West.
There has never been a time when the US needed Saudi Arabia's help more - nor a
time the US has done more to insure it does not get it.
I have firsthand knowledge of a couple of examples that illustrate Saudi
assistance in the least likely of circumstances. They were during the same years
Princess Haifa allegedly enriching the bank accounts of hijackers neither she
nor apparently anyone else knew were coming.
The Kargil Crisis, May 1999: When President Bill Clinton received intelligence
reports that India and Pakistan might be preparing to assemble and deploy
nuclear weapons at the height of the Kargil showdown in Kashmir, it was Saudi
Arabia's defense minister (and Princess Haifa's father-in-law), Sultan bin Abdul
Aziz, who went to Pakistan to talk some sense into Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Prince Sultan then did something no other foreigner had ever been permitted to
do: He toured Kahuta Research Laboratories, Pakistan's top-secret nuclear
enrichment and missile assembly facilities. Contrary to press speculation then,
he wasn't there shopping for bombs to blow Israel or Iran sky high (Saudi Arabia
is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty).
According to senior Pakistani officials I spoke with at the time, he was there
representing the only country Washington and Islamabad both trusted to verify
what the US could not verify for itself - that Pakistan had not readied its
nuclear warheads at the height of the crisis and was therefore not beyond the
breach of political intervention.
Mr. Clinton then proceeded to bring Mr. Sharif to Washington for a July 4
meeting that reversed Pakistan's adventurism at Kargil, and defused the very
real threat of a fourth, possibly nuclear, Indo-Pakistani war.
Kashmir, the Ramadan cease-fire, November 2000: One of the key components of the
cease-fire blueprint that I, as a private US citizen keenly interested in peace
in Kashmir, proposed to both the Indian government and Kashmiri mujahedeen
leaders, was the necessity to enlist Saudi clerical support for the proposal.
For decades, Saudi money has flowed into Muslim regions of conflict around the
world - Kashmir chief among them - to fund what the West views as terrorism but
the Saudis view as freedom struggles. But with that money came extraordinary
influence over the actions of men no Western authority could ever hope to
control or contain.
New Delhi agreed. I can attest that important Saudi fundamentalist (Wahhabi)
clerics - duplicitous as they were then and may still be today - called on
numerous Kashmiri leaders to give peace talks with India a chance. I
hand-carried an olive-branch letter from one of the key Mujahedeen leaders to
Clinton in August 2000 that had the approval of Saudi clerics. And I was present
in January 2001 on the Islamabad end of a phone conversation between a senior
Indian intelligence official and a high-ranking Pakistani Islamist leader with
close ties to the Saudis in Islamabad as the last components of the negotiations
were being put in place. India's hard-liners, led by Home Minister Lal Krishna
Advani, then scuttled the effort - not Muslim extremists or Wahhabi clerics.
There's no question Saudi Arabia's religious and political institutions have
played both sides of the fence in the rise of Muslim extremism. The US also had
use for these radicals once when it was combating communism in the frontline
states of the former Soviet Union.
But unraveling the complexities of radical Islam and its terrorist finances must
be done in a way that doesn't again inadvertently set the West's friends against
its own interests. The suffering of the families of Sept. 11 victims can't be
compensated by lashing out against and alienating Islam's reasoned voices.
Only bin Laden's extremists win when unsupportable, hastily drawn conclusions
mask the real debates needed to revitalize what is still one of the world's most
important bilateral relationships.
o Mansoor Ijaz, an American of Pakistani descent, is chairman of The Crescent
Partnerships in New York and foreign affairs/terrorism analyst for Fox News
Network.
Return To Top December 9, 2002
American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House
Bruce Riedel; Policy Paper Series;
Extracts from
www.sas.upenn.edu
The 4th Dawns [Editor: 4th of July 1999]
The President's advisers gathered early on the 4th to brief him on the meeting
ahead and provide advice. The mood was somber. Sandy Berger opened the session
by telling the President that this could be the most important foreign policy
meeting of his Presidency because the stakes could include nuclear war. He had
to press Sharif to withdraw while also giving him enough cover to keep him in
office to deliver the retreat. Strobe noted the importance of being very clear
with Nawaz and not letting the Prime Minister be alone with the President so
that he could later claim commitments not made. A record of who said what was
critical. Rick and I briefed the President on the latest information we had.
There was more disturbing information about Pakistan preparing its nuclear
arsenal for possible use. I recommended that he use this only when Sharif was
without his aides, particularly not when the Foreign Secretary, Shamshad Ahmad,
who was known to be very close to Pakistani military intelligence (ISI) was in
earshot.
Bandar called and told me the results of his discussion with Sharif. The PM was
distraught, deeply worried about the direction the crisis was going toward
disaster, but equally worried about his own hold on power and the threat from
his military chiefs who were pressing for a tough stand. I briefed the President
and the team. He said he was ready to go and we crossed Pennsylvania Avenue to
Blair House. ....
Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really
was? Did Sharif know his military was preparing their nuclear tipped missiles?
Sharif seemed taken aback and said only that India was probably doing the same.
The President reminded Sharif how close the U.S. and Soviet Union had come to
nuclear war in 1962 over Cuba. Did Sharif realize that if even one bomb was
dropped… Sharif finished his sentence and said it would be a catastrophe.
Return To Top December 9, 2002
We regret that because the editor was travelling, we were unable to produce updates for December 1 and 2, 2002.
Afghanistan's New Army Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay.
6th Afghan Battalion begins training
A story written by Staff Sgt. Rhonda M. Lawson, US Army Link News 7 Dec 2002
KABUL, Afghanistan: A record-setting day
wound up being just the jumpstart the 6th Battalion of the Afghan National
Army needed to finally begin training.
After months of waiting, the battalion inprocessed more than 270 recruits
who showed up at the Kabul Military Training Center on the morning of Nov.
25.
The group was the largest ever to sign up for the ANA at one time, according
to Sgt. Maj. Dan, Operations sergeant major, who is identified by rank and
first name only for security reasons.
The group -- coupled with a smaller group that inprocessed three weeks
prior -- put the 6th BANA over the top as the largest battalion in the ANA
with more than 700 soldiers. Before, the BANA was sitting at less than 300
soldiers, forcing them to put off training until the numbers increased.
Mostly consisting of Pashtun and Tajik ethnicity, the recruits ranged in age
from their late teens to early 40s.
Inprocessing took most of the day. The recruits were broken into groups and
taken into the center where they were interviewed, fingerprinted and given
medical evaluations. During this process, Dan said they tried to emphasize
to the group the reality of being a member of the ANA.
"They're told that they're joining the Afghan National Army as a soldier,
not as an officer or NCO," he said. "In their local command, they might have
been one of those items, but the (Ministry of Defense) actually picks the
officer staff for each BANA. If they don't like that, they're given a chance
to leave."
Dan added that he's not sure why so many people showed up in one day, but he
credits much of it to the Afghan government.
"The Karzai government is definitely putting pressure on the Ministry of
Defense to get a standing army," he said. "The Afghans see the standing army
as one of the vital keys to stability toward the Afghan transitional
government of President Karzai."
With the added troops, soldiers from the French army, which trains all
even-numbered BANAs, began training almost immediately after they were
outfitted. The team, part of the 16th Battalion de Chasseurs, of the French
2nd Armored Brigade, had been waiting nearly two weeks to get to work.
The 6th BANA just completed its first week of training, which included
general information, marching and weapons familiarization.
"The training is divided into two parts," explained Maj. Patrick Leurs, the
training team's executive officer.
"The first will last five weeks (and includes) general individual training,
and the second phase is certainly the most important because it will train
the platoons and companies in their specialties."
Leurs added that an important aspect of their training is incorporating
sports because it helps the soldiers to work better as a team.
"It is a tradition for the French to incorporate sports in all the
training," he said.
The fact that the team is now training the ANA's largest battalion hasn't
hampered any efforts for the French. Leurs explained that they assessed the
level of training by the soldiers' experience, many of whom had prior
military training.
"The soldiers want to learn, they want to be trained, they are very
motivated to receive information," Leurs said. "They tell us that they have
recognition for the French help we provide to their future Army."
However, he said the challenge for the instructors is to slow down the
training rhythm to break through the language barrier. All classes are
taught with the help of interpreters, who translate the lessons into Dari
and Pashtun.
"We are careful of differences between the soldiers who speak Pashtun
because we do not want to isolate them," Leurs said. "In all platoons, we
have some soldiers who are able to translate from Dari to Pashtun."
He added that they also teach with a hands-on technique to help the soldiers
catch on faster.
"We minimize theory and increase practice," Leurs said. "Practice is more
efficient above all with the soldiers who do not know how to write."
The center is now preparing to begin inprocessing for the 7th BANA.
"They don't start their training for almost a month or more, but the
government is afraid that if we're not inprocessing these soldiers," Dan
said, "that they're going to disappear and they're not going to come back."
In burqa or uniform, female Afghan general prevails
By Todd Pitman, Associated Press, 12/6/2002
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) When the only female general in Afghanistan browses
the ancient bazaars of the capital, she usually does so hidden under a
flowing blue burqa that covers her head to toe.
''I get a lot of attention when I go to crowded markets in my uniform.
People stare and sometimes I hear them laugh,'' Gen. Khatol Mohammad Zai
said. ''But I've heard them whispering too. They say they're very proud.''
Female soldiers are rare in Afghanistan. And female generals? Even rarer.
Only one other woman in the country has ever held the rank Health Minister
Suhaila Siddiqi but she no longer serves in the military.
Zai's drive to join the air force grew out of a childhood dream to become a
parachutist. Today, she's the only Afghan parachutist in the country male or
female.
Afghanistan has changed dramatically since Zai joined the armed forces with
hundreds of other women in the early 1980s to prop up the pro-Moscow regime.
During that earlier war, entire villages were flattened to stop civilian
support for U.S.-backed Muslim insurgents who eventually forced Soviet
troops to withdraw. As a woman, Zai was not allowed to fight.
Women's Affairs Minister Habiba Surabi said Kabul was mostly peaceful back
then, and women in the capital enjoyed basic freedoms. The burqa was not yet
ubiquitous though it was omnipresent outside the capital.
''When we were going to the university, we used to wear jeans with blouses,
or even the skirts short skirts,'' Surabi said of her 1980s education in
Kabul. ''At that time, it was accepted. Now ... it's not possible.''
After Islamic conservatives seized power in 1992, women had to wear
headscarves and attend single-sex schools.
The ruling Islamic factions then turned their guns on each other, killing
50,000 people the majority civilians. This paved the way for the takeover by
the hardline Taliban.
In 1996, the Taliban seized the capital and imposed harsher restrictions on
women. Adhering to their own strict version of Islam, the Taliban banned
girls from attending school and most women from working.
''There was an announcement on the radio telling women not to come to
work,'' Zai recalled. ''They said they would call us back, but they never
did.''
As a widow and the only breadwinner in a family of six, Zai was obligated to
find another way to make a living, albeit surreptitiously. The woman soldier
who had studied law at Kabul University was relegated to selling blankets
and handicrafts at home to get by.
All that changed last year when the Taliban were ousted in a U.S.-led war,
ushering in the current government.
Some of the same conservatives who ruled in 1992 returned to power. But the
presence of international peacekeepers and moderate President Hamid Karzai
have secured a more tolerant attitude toward women.
Girls have returned to school and thousands of women have gone back to work.
Zai took up her former job as physical trainer for the air force, and in
March she made her first parachute jump in six years.
In April, Karzai promoted her from colonel to general after she parachuted
into Kabul during a festival commemorating the 10-year anniversary of the
end of communist rule.
Despite the progress, Afghan women one million of them widows still face
enormous challenges. Girls' schools have been fired on by rockets and
burned. Maternal mortality rates are among the highest on earth.
Many women have chosen to keep wearing their burqas some because it's
traditional and others because they fear retaliation from religious
hard-liners. And, while many in Kabul are impressed with Zai, it's not hard
to find men who take offense at her military status.
''It's shameful. A woman's place is at home,'' said Abdul Satar, a
42-year-old tailor incensed by the image of a female officer parachuting
from a helicopter in black boots and military fatigues.
''It's wrong. A woman should not be seen without a burqa. How can she jump
without wearing one? Everybody can see her face, the outline of her body.''
Evidence of Zai's double life permeates her cold, tiny fifth floor
apartment. The living room, overrun with artificial flowers and dolls, has a
decidedly feminine touch, while Zai, ever the soldier, wears an outfit few
in this male-dominated country have seen on a woman: A maroon beret, an
olive-colored shirt and tie, and a camouflage uniform full of medals.
Asked if she does much cooking for her family, Zai flashed a beaming smile.
''I can do anything,'' she asserted. ''Inside the house, I'm a woman.
Outside the house, I'm a man.''
Return To Top December 8, 2002
We regret that because the editor was travelling, we were unable to produce updates for December 1 and 2, 2002.
Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money
From the Jerusalem Post, an article by Matthew Gutman.
Ginossar's ties to PA funds to be investigated
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has vowed to launch an investigation into allegations that Yossi Ginossar, a former Shin Bet official and senior envoy to negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, helped transfer $300 million in Palestinian funds to a Swiss bank and then managed the account for PA Chairman Yasser Arafat.
Israel has for almost two years accused the PA of gross financial mismanagement, rampant corruption, and the use of money from Swiss bank accounts to fund terrorism against Israel.
Ezrad Lev, an accountant and close associate of Ginossar, told Hebrew daily Ma'ariv and Israel Radio on Thursday that Ginossar's advisory role to Arafat continued even as the current violence raged. Lev and Ginossar worked with Arafat's chief financial advisor, Muhammad Rashid, advising him on investments. Ginossar, 56, profited handsomely from the connection, receiving over $10 million for his services.
The United States and European donors to the PA as well as the World Bank and PA Finance Minister Salam Fayad have been scrambling in recent months to locate the money that Rashid withdrew last year transferring it to an unknown location.
Ginossar, a 19-year Shin Bet veteran, admitted to having worked with Rashid accused by Israel of funneling money from secret slush funds to terrorist organizations but said that nothing he did was illegal.
Lev claims the opposite. "The money could have been used for personal needs, to form a shelter for Arafat and senior Palestinian officials, to pay salaries, or even, and I really hope not, for illegal activities," Lev said.
He and Ginossar, who served as a liaison to the PA for four prime ministers, first opened the account in Switzerland's reputable Lombard Odier & Cie Bank in 1997, using Arafat's personal documents (including a Palestinian passport, numbered "1"). The funds, at first listed as "monies of the Palestinian people," were transferred from a branch of the Arab Bank in Ramallah.
The Israeli financial advisors set up the account for a front company called Ledbury, but later changed its name to Crouper when they sensed that rumors of its existence were circulating.
The government, however, was aware of some of Ginossar's dealings well before Lev's confession. In November 2000, as Israel was conducting intensive negotiations with the PA, Attorney-General Elyakim Rubinstein petitioned the High Court of Justice to curtail the government's use of Ginossar as an emissary due to "conflicts of interests" stemming from Ginossar's close business associations with PA officials.
Then, in March of 2001, Rubinstein urged Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to use Ginossar "only in life-or-death situations."
Ginossar had served as an envoy to the PA for prime ministers Itzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Binyamin Netanyahu, and Ehud Barak.
Ginossar was also involved in an alleged cover-up of the 1984 Bus 300 incident in which Shin Bet officials killed two bound terrorists following their hijacking of the coastal bus. He was also accused of using excessive force in extracting a false confession of espionage from a Circassian IDF soldier.
Ginossar also has a long history of involvement with Palestinian businessmen and security officials. According to Palestinian sources he had a partnership along with former head of the Palestinian Preventive Security Service boss Jibril Rajoub, in the Oasis Jericho casino, among other business concerns.
Ginossar denies claims he knew PA money he managed funded terrorism
This is a Follow Up Article
Speaking to Channel One's Yoman Shishi Friday night, businessman Yossi Ginossar, 56, a former Shin Bet official and senior envoy to negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, denied allegations made against him Wednesday, that he helped transfer $300 million in Palestinian funds to a Swiss bank and then managed the account for PA Chairman Yasser Arafat.
"Since the publication (in Hebrew daily Ma'ariv), I have been subjected to a slanderous campaign," Ginossar said, stating he did not manage any account for Arafat, Arafat's chief financial advisor Muhammad Rashid, or any other PA official.
"I have nothing to hide," Ginossar said, stating that all business he had with the PA consisted of mediating between Palestinian officials and the Swiss banks where their accounts were held. "My business transactions (with Palestinians in the past) were common knowledge," he said.
Referring to the 65 million dollars which the Ma'ariv reports said were diverted to terrorist activity, he said: "The 65 million didn't disappear. It has simply been invested in other holdings."
Ginossar reiterated that he did open an account Swiss bank for Rashid, but denied having managed it. He claimed he was sure Rashid was not implicated in terror, and said chief Israeli politicians have had consistent relations with him. "Had I had any suspicion that he (Rashid) was implicated in terrorist activities, I would have reported it," he said. Asked whether he still had relations with Rashid, he said he did, but stressed they were "not of a business nature." He rejected as "nonsense" claims that he had received bribes from Rashid.
Asked whether he intended to sue Ma'ariv over the allegations he called "false", Ginossar did not answer.
Ezrad Lev, an accountant and close associate of Ginossar, in a phone conversation with the studio following Ginossar's interview, rejected Ginossar's claims, saying he and Ginossar's actively managed the PA accounts.
"We managed the funds and went to meeting in Switzerland every two weeks, as well as drawing up monthly reports," Lev told Channel One. "Accounts were opened and closed on our word," he added. Lev added that besides managing these accounts, they also jointly managed Rashid's personal account.
Referring to the allegedly missing 65 million dollars, he said he "vividly remembers the shock on his (Ginossar's) face when confronted a Swiss bank official's report that the money was used for terrorism."
He said although most of the money can be accounted for, more than 100 million dollars were still missing from up-to-date reports they were given by Rashid recently.
Lev had told Ma'ariv earlier that Ginossar's advisory role to Arafat continued even as the current violence raged. Ginossar, 56, reportedly profited handsomely from the connection, receiving over $10 million for his services.
The United States and European donors to the PA as well as the World Bank and PA Finance Minister Salam Fayad have been scrambling in recent months to locate the money that Rashid withdrew last year transferring it to an unknown location.
Ginossar and Lev set up the account for a front company called Ledbury, but later changed its name to Crouper when they sensed that rumors of its existence were circulating.
The government, however, was aware of some of Ginossar's dealings well before Lev's confession. In November 2000, as Israel was conducting intensive negotiations with the PA, Attorney-General Elyakim Rubinstein petitioned the High Court of Justice to curtail the government's use of Ginossar as an emissary due to "conflicts of interests" stemming from Ginossar's close business associations with PA officials.
Return To Top December 7, 2002
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004
Forwarded by Gordan A. MacKinlay, a report appearing the the Associated Press
Wednesday, December 4, 2002
BRUSSELS, Belgium -- NATO's anti-terrorism rapid reaction force will be
ready before 2004, the deadline set during the Prague summit last month, the
alliance's senior military officer said Wednesday.
German Gen. Harald Kujat said he was optimistic that NATO could put together
the 20,000-strong force ahead of schedule. He said implementation plan
should be ready by June.
"We could achieve operational readiness ... I think before 2004," Kujat
said. His comments followed a two-day meeting of NATO's military committee
of chiefs of staff, which he chaired.
NATO's 19 member nations approved the creation of the rapid response force
to buttress the alliance's capacity to fight terrorist threats wherever they
emerge. The decision was part of a strategy that breaks from the alliance's
traditional focus on Europe.
The lack of a quick reaction force was one reason the United States declined
NATO's offer of help in the campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan.
Kujat said many NATO nations had well-trained soldiers able to be used on
short notice. Countries are expected to contribute units from their own
rapid-deployment forces.
NATO military planners need to decide what each country should contribute
and how to equip and train the land, sea and air force, Kujat said.
He suggested the force could be ready for a U.S.-led war in Iraq.
The two-day military meeting also address plans for streamlining the
alliance's command structure and investing in new equipment, including
ground surveillance planes, smart bombs and electronic jamming gear.
Alliance defense chiefs also discussed whether to reduce NATO's troop
presence in peacekeeping missions to Bosnia and Kosovo. Officials said no
decision would be made until reviews of the missions next year.
Return To Top December 7, 2002
Germany slashes defence spending
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, extracts from a story by Kate Connolly in The Telegraph.
The German government yesterday announced sweeping cuts in its defence
spending in a move that will infuriate Nato and hamper plans to reshape the
army for modern warfare.
The defence minister, Peter Struck, said the German army, air force and
navy had to make drastic cuts in equipment and slim down their
organisational structures to save resources.
But Mr Struck resisted calls from within the government to scrap
conscription, saying it was "indispensable even under the new security
circumstances".
Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has staunchly resisted German participation in a
war against Iraq. But he has sought to counter criticism that Germany is not
pulling its weight in military action abroad, stressing that it has more
troops taking part in peace missions, around 8,700, than any country apart
from America.
But the peace missions have only reinforced how underfunded and outdated the
military is.
The government has been under pressure from Nato to increase its military
budget, which is 1.5 per cent of GDP compared to the Nato average of 2.3 per
cent.
Return To Top December 7, 2002
We regret that because the editor was travelling, we were unable to produce updates for December 1 and 2, 2002.
Headlines from Debka Israeli PM confirms al Qaeda has been present in Palestinian areas for some time - as well as in Lebanon, cooperating with both Hizballah and Palestinians
Jerusalem police braced for heightened Palestinian suicide terror threat Thursday, Muslim Eid el Fitr Festival
Israeli civilian flights halted to Cyprus because of inadequate ground security, following which Cyprus Airways will discontinue service to Israel from Sunday
Sharon's advocacy of a Palestinian state causes uproar on both sides of Israeli political spectrum. In White House, Adviser Rice slams Sharon speech
Wednesday, he came out in favor of fully demilitarized Palestinian state (after terror ends and reforms begin) with provisional borders on current A and B zones, except for security zones
Israel will control all passage points and air space and not allow alliances with its enemies.
Arafat will be relegated to a "symbolic role"
Right-wing leaders: Statehood would reward Palestinian terror. Left-wing: Likud leader is angling for centrist vote in January 28 election
DEBKAfile's political analysts: Sharon eyes second post-election unity government with Labor's leader Mitzna. But security and political conditions unlikely to be conducive to Palestinian state plan by end of January
Bush blames al Qaeda for attacks in Kenya, accuses terrorists of disrupting Israel-Palestinian peace process, declares: "I fully understand the Israeli government's attempts to stamp out terror."
Elliott Abrams, who as Reagan team member was involved in Iran-contra affair, is appointed special assistant to President Bush and head of National Security Council Middle East section
The appointment makes him White House point-man on Arab-Israel issues and US peace policy
Israeli Mossad chief Dagan warns security cabinet that Israel faces mounting nuclear threat, must weigh its responses accordingly, urges new methods for defending Israeli overseas targets
Al Qaeda forces fighting with Kurdish Ansar al-Islam and Iraqi intelligence officers launch offensive in N. Iraq Wednesday and capture pro-US Patriotic Union of Kurdistan positions 6m from Halabja.
DEBKAfile sources in Kurdistan: Fall of Halabja to al Qaeda-backed Kurdish forces would set back US Iraq war preparations
On October 19, DEBKAfile reported al Qaeda fighters in fundamentalist Kurdish Bayara after combat training with Iraqi intelligence officers
Wednesday, app. 15m NE of Mosul, Iraqis shoot at Western warplanes in northern no-fly zone. American F-16s respond by dropping 4 precision-guided bombs on Iraq air defense systems
Jordan's King Abdullah's envoy pays condolences visits Wednesday to families of 5 Beit Shean victims of last Palestinian terror attack, invites them to Jordan as royal guests
Return To Top December 6, 2002
Russia, India sign declaration to combat terror, bolster ties
Abbreviated, from Islamic Republic News Agency
New Delhi, Dec 5, IRNA
In a sign of growing strategic concord in international affairs,
Putin and India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee signed a "Delhi
Declaration" to enhance strategic cooperation and set up a joint
working group on combating terrorism.
They also issued a joint declaration on strengthening economic,
scientific and cultural cooperation.
Putin said Russia was willing to enhance its cooperation with
India on nuclear power generation within the framework of
international rules and regulations.
There was no official word on different defense deals under
negotiation, while the two sides appeared to avoid any reference to
the delicate talks on pricing.
While Putin called for a resolution of disputes between India and
Pakistan by "peaceful means"' in his joint news conference with
Vajpayee, a joint statement said Moscow backed New Delhi's position
on cross-border terrorism to the hilt.
"Both sides discussed in detail the current situation in South
Asia," it said, adding the two sides stressed that the "roots of
terrorism" lay in their common neighborhood.
India and Russia would take preventive and deterrent measures to
suppress terrorism, the statement said.
The joint declaration on economic cooperation recognized that
energy security had become an increasingly important component of
bilateral ties.
"The two sides indicated their common desire to intensify
long-term cooperation in this sector, which could be extended to other
areas, including the Caspian Sea, and to other aspects of the energy
sector."
On Iraq, the two countries spoke in one voice by strongly
opposing the unilateral use of force in violation of the United
Nations' Charter.
It was stressed that a comprehensive settlement of the Iraqi
crisis is possible only through political and diplomatic efforts in
strict conformity with the rules of international law and only under
the aegis of the United Nations.
India and Russia also noted the importance of continuing
intensive work with the Iraqi leadership in order to encourage it to
cooperate in good faith with the United Nations.
Russia reaffirmed its support to India as a "deserving and strong
candidate for the permanent membership of an expanded United Nations
Security Council. For its part, India supported Russia's early
accession to the World Trade Organization.
The two countries signed eight agreements that would strengthen
and enhance economic, scientific and technical cooperation between the
two countries. They also inked a memorandum of understanding on
combating terrorism and an MoU for cooperation in the field of
telecommunications.
Return To Top December 6, 2002
India's separatists set up agents in Southeast Asia to seek arms
From Islamic Republic news Agency
Guwahati, Dec 5, IRNA -- A number of separatist groups in India have
opened up front companies in Southeast Asia to serve as a smokescreen
for their agents to seek arms deals, officials Thursday said.
"Quite a large number of militant groups operating in the
northeast have floated front companies in Thailand and other Southeast
Asian cities for purchasing weapons from gunrunners," a top military
commander engaged in counter-insurgency operations in the northeast
told IRNA.
Among the frontline militant groups said to be operating incognito
in Southeast Asian cities include the outlawed United Liberation Front
of Asom (ULFA), the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), and the
National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT).
Top leaders of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN),
a banned group until recently, have been operating from Bangkok and
other Southeast Asian cities for years.
"Most of the militant outfits are having offices in foreign
countries under the banner of some human rights groups or other vague
organizations with support from forces inimical to India's interests,"
the commander said requesting anonymity.
India's porous and mountainous northeastern frontiers, bordering
Myanmar and Bangladesh, have become one of the world's busiest small
arms' bazaars, feeding insurgencies and rebellions across South Asia.
"The international borders along the northeast have always been a
gunrunners' paradise with illegal arms consignments arriving via
Bangladesh and Myanmar almost regularly," Mizoram Chief Minister
Zoramthanga said.
The chief minister was himself a top militant leader of the
outlawed Mizo National Front before the outfit surrendered in 1986
and entered the political mainstream.
The region's separatist groups have long purchased arms from the
port town of Cox's Bazaar in Bangladesh.
Most of the weapons, including AK-47 and AK-56 assault rifles,
mortars, 40mm rocket launchers, pistols, revolvers and grenades, come
via the Arakans -- a mountainous area in Myanmar -- from parts of
Thailand and Cambodia.
The arms consignments are often routed by sea through the Bay of
Bengal to its destination in the Arakan forest, which is across
Mizoram, before making their way to the 30-odd rebel armies operating
in the region.
Return To Top December 6, 2002
We regret that because the editor was travelling, we were unable to produce updates for December 1 and 2, 2002.
Articles from the Brookings Institute Articles from the Brookings Institute Editor's Note: For the Brookings Institute, the center of the universe is not just Washington, DC, it is the Brookings Institute. Non-American readers may get serious indigestion reading these articles. Nonetheless, we ask readers to reach for the anti-gas concoctions and keep reading. The articles provide a valuable insider's look into American thinking.
Will Iraq Inspections Work? Yes, Probes will Find Arsenals, Gain Allies
for Possible War
Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay write that although we will not know
for some time if weapons inspections will succeed, it is clear that by
going this route, President Bush has created an opportunity to achieve
America's key objectives in Iraq at a minimal cost. And if it becomes
necessary for the United States to fight, he will have wisely laid the
groundwork for a war that will enjoy substantial international legitimacy
and support.
The Use of Force in a Changing World: U.S. and European Perspectives
Ivo Daalder examines why the existing framework for deciding questions
about the use of force is less and less applicable to the vastly and
rapidly changing circumstances of today’s world.
Rumsfeld Forges a Smart War Plan
Even for those of us who often disagree with Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld's foreign policy views, his stewardship of the Pentagon is
instructive, writes Michael O’Hanlon.
Return To Top December 5, 2002
We regret that because the editor was travelling, we were unable to produce updates for December 1 and 2, 2002.
Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel
From Debka.com
Monday, December 2, five days after the event, Al Qaeda took formal responsibility for the two attacks against Israeli targets at Kenya's Indian Ocean resort of Mombasa last Thursday, November 28, in which 16 people died - 13 Kenyans and three Israelis.
Several hours before al Qaeda posted its admission, three prominent Israeli security figures suddenly found their voices on the dangers posed by al Qaeda and the grave implications as regards Israel's abilities to fight back.
For many months, Israeli spokesmen kept quiet about the international fundamentalist terror network's presence in Israel, first exposed by DEBKAfile last April, despite al Qaeda's advancing collaboration with Hizballah in support of Palestinian terrorism.
The brutal murder of 21 celebrants at the Park Hotel Passover feast in Netanya on March 27, 2002, provided cover for the first contingent of 15-20 heavily armed al Qaeda men to land on Netanya beach from the sea. The week before, an earlier group of Osama bin Laden's men poured across the Syrian-Israeli frontier on the Golan and stole south through the West Bank gulley of Wadi Kharmiyeh, until they reached prepared hideouts in Ramallah and the Nablus district.
Monday, December 2, under the impact of the attacks in Kenya, Defense minister Shaul Mofaz finally confirmed that the al Qaeda network had sent "octopus arms not only into countries on the other side of the ocean but also to our region."
Chief of staff Lt. General Moshe Yaalon was a little more specific. He told reporters that al Qaeda operatives had landed in this country and planned terror attacks that were foiled. He stressed that the network also used Palestinians, but insisted that the threats from al Qaeda, the prime suspect in the attacks in Mombasa, had been eliminated both at home and abroad.
The message acknowledging responsibility for the attack was monitored by Israeli TV Channel 2 on five pro-al Qaeda websites. It was signed unusually by the group's "political bureau" and noted: "This is the second time we strike from Kenya - after the US embassies bombings - but this time we hit the Jews in revenge for Israeli actions in Palestinian territories. Your women for ours, your old for ours, your children for ours. You have cast a siege of hunger around the Palestinians, we shall cast a siege of fear over you."
The message goes on to crow: "In the face of international persecution, we are able to carry out operations against the Jewish-Crusader Front." The Mombasa attacks were held up as "a slap in the face for the CIA and the Mossad in this part of Africa."
Al Qaeda never dignifies the Jewish state with its name - only "the Jews" in keeping with its all-round objectives.
DEBKAfile's experts on terror assert that al Qaeda terrorists are in this country at the invitation of Yasser Arafat and with logistical support approved by him in person. He imported the Hizballah first, then Osama bin Laden's Islamic fighters, to advance his single, never-changing goal, to fight Israel until it is destroyed. In the last six months, therefore, while the diplomats and politicians spun their plans, road maps and ceasefire schemes, Arafat surreptitiously turned this country into an international center for the most dangerous professional terrorists alive. He gathered under his wing an assemblage of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hizballah, JIbril's Popular Front - General Command, Iraqi military intelligence and the pro-Iraqi Arab Liberation Front, joined in April by al Qaeda.
The same crosscut of terrorist groups is present nowhere else but the United States, although there they are mostly sleeper cells. In the Israel-Palestinian areas, all the terrorist groups compete for a piece of the action and are eager to help Arafat terrorize Israel out of existence.
The year 2002 is therefore characterized by the leading Islamic fundamentalist and likeminded terror groups taking advantage of the Palestinian leader's "hospitality" to strike roots inside Israel's borders.
This year of terror falls into four parts:
1. Raising arms and personnel: From January to March, a river of terrorist weapons and explosive materials was smuggled into the Palestinian Authority from Jordan and Lebanon but mostly from Iran. The Karine-A arms ship was captured, but others certainly made it through to destination. The terrorists arrived in the trail of the arms, slipping in by secret routes through Jordan, the Golan, North Sinai and Israel's shores, to be picked up and hosted by Arafat's men. This influx consisted of between 150 and 250 trained terror operatives with heavy weapons, such as various types of portable missiles.
2. First operations: These incoming terror cells landed raring for action. DEBKAfile's military and counter-terror sources report that al Qaeda operatives were since discovered to have struck in March and April in some of the deadliest attacks Israel ever suffered. They targeted hotels in Netanya, wedding halls and restaurants in Haifa, Ashdod and Tel Aviv and West Bank roadblocks at Wadi Kharmieh and Adora. Their commanders in Iran, Syria and Lebanon, like Arafat, while rejoicing over the high Israeli death toll from these attacks, did not commend the newcomers' zeal. The imported al Qaeda terror experts had been told to go to ground until they were called out for the mega-attacks designed to finish Israel in the final stage of the conflict.
3. Summer inertia: From May to November, these foreign cells were quiescent, quietly improving their communications skills and gathering intelligence.
4. Back in action: In November, orders for the cells to return to action issued from al Qaeda's senior command posts in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Lebanon and from Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah. DEBKAfile's military and counter-terror sources report that the first attack in this cycle was the crafty ambush laid in Hebron on Friday night, November 15, in which 12 Israeli officers, troops and security men were gunned down.
Next came the bombing-attack at the Mombasa Paradise Hotel on November 28, together with the missile strike that missed an Israeli airliner carrying 260 passengers aboard. Later that day, gunmen went on a shooting-grenade assault on a Likud polling station in the northern town of Beit Shean, killing six Israelis.
That night, a mega-terror strike was rumored to have been thwarted in Jerusalem, although a court gag order prevented its publication.
This penultimate stage for the year 2002 is viewed by our experts as the prelude to a mega-terror offensive already in the works. External and Palestinian terrorists are expected to combine for an escalating cycle of attacks to culminate in one such mega-strike staged by al Qaeda or Hizballah terrorist cells.
This is what the former Mossad chief and current national security adviser, Efraim Halevy, was talking about in his lecture on Monday, December 2, several hours before al Qaeda owned up to the Mombasa strikes.
Halevy spoke of the mega-terror menace hanging over Israel as essentially one of "genocide" with the aim of destroying Israel to its very foundations. "To meet a threat on this scale," he said, "Israel possesses a broad and diverse array of capabilities, some of them not yet revealed." Inherent in Israel's national security balance, he explained, is the ability to countervail menaces of this kind. Should the danger come to pass, that ability will take the conflict to a new plane which, Halevy was sure, would be understood and accepted by world opinion.
DEBKAfile's military and counter-terror sources have no doubt that the Israeli prime minister's chief emissary for delicate foreign assignments was hinting darkly both at an unconventional threat to Israel, that could take the form of a large-scale massacre, and at the Jewish state's forceful retaliation by means of weapons and war tactics never yet brought into use. Such a counter-strike could well be pre-emptive. For Israel's policy-makers, the first danger signals flared in Hebron and Mombasa. On Monday, December 2, they published a dire warning as to their potential response.
Return To Top December 4, 2002
U.S. Grows Frustrated With Pakistan Coalition
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, an article by Ahmed Rashid from the Wall Street Journal
ISLAMABAD -- Despite Pakistan's support for the U.S.-led war against
terrorism and President Bush's public expressions of support for Pakistani
President Pervez Musharraf, U.S. diplomats and other officials are
increasingly dissatisfied with Islamabad, which they say is complicating
the antiterrorism effort and straining a crucial alliance.
"Musharraf has made so many unfulfilled promises and pledges to the U.S.
that his credibility here is at an all-time low," says a U.S. diplomat in
Washington. While few expect an open rift as Washington focuses on a
possible war in Iraq, the U.S. diplomat adds that "There are too many
contentious issues coming to a head, and the relationship is skating on
very thin ice."
President Musharraf, a general who seized power three years ago, has been
in a difficult spot since U.S. troops arrived in the region last year to
oust the Taliban rulers of neighboring Afghanistan and apprehend their
allies in the al Qaeda terrorist organization. The Pakistani leader is
torn between placating the U.S. and angering his country's many
anti-Western Islamic militants.
Today, U.S. officials express concern with Islamabad's behavior on three
fronts: Pakistan's testy relations with neighboring India, its protection
of Afghan figures the U.S. considers terrorists, and Islamabad's alleged
aid to North Korea. Because Washington's official position is support for
Pakistan, the officials asked not to be named.
Despite Gen. Musharraf's pledge in June to stop the flow of Islamic
militants into Indian-controlled Kashmir, the officials say Pakistan still
allows them into the tinderbox region, over which the two nuclear-armed
countries nearly went to war this year. Pakistan denies the charge,
although it has admitted before to hosting Islamic militants who have
perpetrated attacks in Indian Kashmir. U.S. officials have warned Pakistan
not to underestimate India's military reaction if there are further
attacks this winter.
U.S. officials say several Western intelligence agencies have also
determined that while Pakistan's military is helping arrest al Qaeda
militants in Pakistan, it is also harboring former Taliban leaders and
supporters of the renegade Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in
Pakistan's tribal belt along the border with Afghanistan. Mr. Hekmatyar
has called for a jihad, or holy war, against American troops and the
fledgling, Western-supported government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency is also proving a hindrance.
Even though Mr. Karzai, like the Taliban leaders, is a Pashtun --
Afghanistan's majority ethnic group -- his government isn't dominated by
the group. "There is strong resentment in the ISI of the huge influence of
India and Russia in Kabul and the loss of influence of the Afghan
Pashtuns, who are alienated and angry," says a retired Pakistani general
in Islamabad. "But it would be a very dangerous step to try and go back to
what we were doing in the 1990s," he adds, referring to Pakistan's earlier
support of the Taliban regime.
The emergence in Islamabad last month of an audiotape made by al Qaeda
leader Osama bin Laden didn't help Gen. Musharraf's credibility with the
U.S. The tape, which U.S. intelligence officials confirmed as authentic,
refutes the general's repeated assertions that Mr. bin Laden is dead and
that al Qaeda has little presence in Pakistan. U.S. officials now believe
Mr. bin Laden is either hiding in Pakistan's tribal belt along the Afghan
border, or has fled to Yemen from a Pakistani port. The officials also
believe al Qaeda maintains significant communications and logistics hubs
in Islamabad and the port city of Karachi.
Also causing concern in Washington and Kabul is that an alliance of
Islamic fundamentalist parties who support the Taliban and have never
condemned al Qaeda is set to take over the reins of government in
Pakistan's volatile North West Frontier Province, adjacent to Afghanistan.
The group has demanded that the military throw out American intelligence
and military officials from the province.
Relations are strained on yet another front the U.S. deems crucial to its
security: Pakistan's alleged assistance to North Korea's nuclear program
in return for missiles capable of reaching most of India. U.S. Secretary
of State Colin Powell warned Pakistan last week that it could face
consequences if Washington discovers that Islamabad is still transferring
nuclear know-how to North Korea. "In my conversations with President
Musharraf, I have made clear to him that any, any sort of contact between
Pakistan and North Korea we believe would be improper, inappropriate and
would have consequences," Mr. Powell said.
For the moment, a U.S.-Pakistani rift is unlikely. U.S. officials say Mr.
Powell is wary of alienating Islamabad when Pakistan faces renewed threats
from al Qaeda, the regional instability that could be worsened by a war in
Iraq, and continuing Indian-Pakistani tensions. For their part, Pakistani
officials have warned Washington that with anti-American feeling on the
rise across the country, Gen. Musharraf has no choice but to show some
independence from U.S. pressure.
Return To Top December 4, 2002
We regret that because the editor was travelling, we were unable to produce updates for December 1 and 2, 2002.
Afghan national army plan unveiled Afghan national army plan unveiled
Forwarded by reader Gordon A. MacKinlay, source unknown, possibly BBC. Extracts.
Plans for a 70,000-strong national army for Afghanistan have been outlined
by President Hamid Karzai.
Mr Karzai told a meeting of UN representatives and donor countries that the
safety of his citizens remained his top priority, and that the new army
would be a force loyal solely to his government and the only legal army
Afghanistan would recognise.
The creation of the new Afghan army will mean that all private militias will
now be banned.
But Mr Karzai's announcement came as the forces of rival warlords continued
to clash in Afghanistan.
Attempts to form a national army have been hampered by a lack of
non-partisan army volunteers and problems with convincing Afghanistan's
different ethnic factions on how much representation they should have in the
army.
Diplomats were given details of Mr Karzai's plans for his country's army of
70,000 troops, including:
The army itself will be largely paid for by the US and UK governments.
Mr Karzai said his government was also working to create a national police
force, for which Germany is helping to train officers.
UN special envoy for Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi told the conference that
insecurity - mostly generated by factional rivalry - was hampering
reconstruction efforts.
Mr Brahimi acknowledged that Mr Karzai's government did not have the
resources to exercise its authority.
The BBC's Baqer Moin says Western governments feel the only way to
consolidate Mr Karzai's power is to ensure he has a military force at his
disposal to assert the authority of his government.
A new Afghan army would face two major obstacles; the fact that
Afghanistan's warring factions would like to see their members as part of
the army - possibly in numbers disproportionate to the ethnic make-up of the
country - and the difficulty in attracting suitably neutral recruits
Return To Top December 3, 2002
Nuclear Duplicity From Pakistan: NYT Editorial
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, New York Times
Few countries have improved their standing in American eyes as dramatically as
Pakistan has in the past two years. Long shunned by Washington for its links to
terrorism, its nuclear weapons program and autocratic military rule, Pakistan
became a valued ally, mainly by abandoning its support of the Taliban leadership
in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States. Now Pakistan's
reputation is threatened once again. American intelligence agencies have
recently confirmed that Islamabad provided indispensable help to North Korea's
secret nuclear weapons program. That program threatens 100,000 American troops
in Asia along with the people of Japan and South Korea.
Pakistan secretly developed nuclear weapons in the 1980's and 90's, but lacked
the longer-range missiles required to threaten India's main cities and military
bases with nuclear attack. North Korea had such missiles, but it needed nuclear
bomb-making technology that could be easily concealed underground to prevent
American satellite detection.
Pakistan provided Pyongyang with the perfect solution by sharing design plans of
the uranium enrichment technology it had stolen from the West and used in its
own secret nuclear program. In exchange, Pakistan got North Korean missile
components, which Pyongyang also ships to Iran, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Egypt.
Neither country has shown the least hesitation about placing unconventional
weapons in the hands of dangerous dictators. Pakistan claims to have ended its
exchanges with North Korea, but the United States spotted a Pakistani plane
picking up North Korean missile parts as recently as last summer. The Bush
administration has warned Islamabad of unspecified "consequences" of this
reckless traffic.
Return To Top December 3, 2002
A Note On Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons
Forwared by Ram Narayanan.
Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V R Raghavan, who was the Commanding General of the Siachen
sector in the Indian Army, in his recently published book, says:
Reference: p.201, "SIACHEN:
Conflict Without End", Viking, 2002. The footnote cites Aziz Haniffa, in
'Compromised Security of Pak Nuclear Sites', The Times of India, 15 February,
2001.
Return To Top December 3, 2002
Poor in India Starve as Surplus Wheat Rots
An article by Amy Waldman, from the New York Times, forwarded by Ram Narayanan.
Editor's Note KHANNA, India - Surplus from this year's wheat harvest, bought by the government
from farmers, sits moldering in muddy fields here in Punjab State. Some of the
previous year's wheat surplus sits untouched, too, and the year's before that,
and the year's before that.
To the south, in the neighboring state of Rajasthan, villagers ate boiled leaves
or discs of bread made from grass seeds in late summer and autumn because they
could not afford to buy wheat. One by one, children and adults - as many as 47
in all - wilted away from hunger-related causes, often clutching pained
stomachs.
Sometimes, we ate half a bread," said Phoolchand, a laborer whose 2-year-old
daughter died during that period. "Sometimes, a whole bread."
More than two decades after a "green" revolution made India, the world's
second-most-populous country, self-sufficient in grain production, half of
India's children are malnourished. About 350 million Indians go to bed hungry
every night. Pockets of starvation deaths, like those in the Baran district of
Rajasthan, have surfaced regularly in recent years.
Yet the government is sitting on wheat surpluses - now at about 53 million
metric tons - that would stretch to the moon and back at least twice if all the
bags were lined up. Persistent scarcity surrounded by such bounty has become a
source of shame for a nation that has taken pride in feeding itself.
Advocates for the poor and those pushing for economic reforms ask how a country
can justify hoarding so much excess when so many of its people regularly go
hungry.
"It's scandalous," said Jean Drèze, an economist who has been helping to
document starvation deaths for a Supreme Court case brought by the People's
Union for Civil Liberties, an advocacy group, to compel the government to use
the surplus to relieve hunger.
The reason, experts and officials agree, is the economics - and particularly the
politics - of food in India, a country that has modernized on many fronts but
that remains desperately poor.
Critics say the central government, led for the last four years by the Hindu
nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, has catered to political allies and powerful
farm lobbies in a few key states by buying more and more grain from farmers at
higher and higher prices. At the same time, it has been responding to pressure
from international lenders by curbing food subsidies to consumers.
One result has been huge stockpiles going to waste, while higher prices for food
and inefficient distribution leave basic items like bread, a staple of the rural
poor diet, out of reach for many. Even though the surplus is supposed to be
distributed to the poor, politics and corruption often limit their access.
"It's not an economic issue anymore - it's a straightforward political issue,"
said Jairam Ramesh, the senior economic adviser to the Congress Party, the
country's main opposition party.
Answering such criticism, Asok Kumar Mohapatra, who was until recently a joint
secretary with the Department of Food and Public Distribution, said any system
trying to feed a billion people was apt to have inefficiencies. "It's easy to
find fault with this kind of organization," he said. But he, too, acknowledged
the politics involved. "The simple thing is they have lobbies," he said of the
farmers, "and lobbies work everywhere."
Both the glut in Punjab and the deprivation in Rajasthan reflect a government in
transition between a quasi-socialist past and a free-market future, and one that
at the local level especially seems deeply ambivalent about its obligations to
its poorest citizens.
After a devastating famine in 1943 that killed three million people and humbling
food scarcities in the 1960's, Indian central governments have been determined
to ensure that the country could feed itself.
A nationwide system was set up to distribute subsidized food via a network of
"ration shops" that today number 454,000. At the same time, India made great
advances in increasing its productivity, by developing high-yield seeds and
investing in infrastructure, like irrigation.
The green agricultural revolution quadrupled staple food production, from 50
million metric tons in 1950 to 209 million metric tons by 2000.
The fruits of those efforts can be witnessed nowhere more vividly than in
Punjab. Today it is India's only state (along, perhaps, with neighboring
Haryana, which was carved from Punjab), that derives more than 40 percent of its
income from agriculture; until recently it had the highest per capita income in
India. It has some of the country's best roads and, with only 2 percent of the
country's land, grows 55 percent of its food.
While farmers in poorer states have either no grain surplus or no mechanism by
which to sell it to the government, Punjab has 1,600 wholesale grain markets,
including the one here in Khanna, the largest in Asia.
But the same system that has built up Punjab has also run into trouble on almost
every front, and even the farmers here know it cannot last.
Over the past four years, even as advisory committees recommended stabilizing or
lowering the support prices paid to farmers, prices instead went up, and up - to
about $129 a metric ton, 2,200 pounds, for wheat this year from about $99 in
1997.
Punjab farmers, eager to cash in, are farming so much rice and wheat that they
are depleting the state's water and soil, creating a long-term threat to the
country's agricultural self-sufficiency.
"We know every year we take the water level down," said Bachittar Singh, 67, a
farmer with 125 acres near here. "But what alternative do we have?"
Then there is the effect of such policies on the price of grain itself. The high
prices paid to farmers by the government have inflated consumer prices, making
it harder for the poor to buy grain. In some cases, the government, wanting to
keep market prices in India high, has exported grain at lower prices than it was
selling it to its citizens.
By the mid-1990's, India was spending close to 1 percent of its gross domestic
product on food subsidies, with much of that lost to waste and theft. Under
strong pressure from the World Bank and other international lenders to curb
spending, the government decided in 1997 that only those below the poverty line
would be able to buy heavily subsidized food. Everyone else would have to buy it
only slightly below market price.
But with politics, indifference and corruption conspiring to limit the number of
those identified as poor, the amount of food being bought from ration shops
dropped significantly and stockpiles soared. The problem is compounded by the
fact that even many of those classified as poor are unable to buy the subsidized
grain because of inaccessible ration shops or dealers who steal the grain for
sale on the black market.
Today the government has run out of warehouse space and has taken to storing the
grain in fields rented from farmers. A recent report found that it was spending
more on storage than on agriculture, rural development, irrigation and flood
control combined.
Some of the wheat, often protected only by porous jute bags and black plastic
tarpaulins, is rotten; even official estimates concede that 200,000 tons are
"damaged," with the real total probably far higher. Inspectors have found
worm-infested wheat at schools where the state is supposed to provide free
lunch.
It is about 400 miles from the abundance here to the barren, scrubby landscape
of Baran, in the southeast corner of Rajasthan. This year was the third year of
drought, and the most brutal, with rainfall down by 70 percent.
In the village of Swaans, isolated by jolting dirt roads and dry riverbeds, one
man, Gobrilal, lost an 8-year-old son to hunger this fall. He sat recently
beneath the shade of a thatched shelter, surrounded by children who were all rib
cages and swollen bellies, and recounted two months of agony.
On good days they ate once a day, but many days they ate nothing. Gobrilal's son
began vomiting, even while asking for food, and died two days later. "If we had
money," his father said listlessly, "we would have bought him wheat so he
wouldn't have died."
Return To Top December 3, 2002
Arab News Editorial: Evil and stupid Arab News Editorial: Evil and stupid
From the Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia.
Yesterday's suicide bomb explosion at an Israeli-owned hotel in the Kenyan seaside resort of Mombasa and the double missile attack on an Israeli charter airliner taking off from the city's airport were not wholly unexpected. A month ago, Al-Qaeda said in one of its taped messages that it would go after Jewish targets worldwide; despite the claims of responsibility from a hitherto unknown Palestinian group, Al-Qaeda remains the likely perpetrator. Expectation, however, does not make what happened any less evil - or stupid.
It is bad enough when innocent bystanders are killed in military action, but civilians, Israeli or otherwise, must never be targeted. The fact that the Palestinians are at war with Israel does not alter that fundamental fact. In any event, what was the military objective here? Was the hotel a secret Israeli army base? Where the two children killed in the blast Israeli soldiers? Were the six Kenyans killed closet Israelis? The fact that the Israeli Army kills innocent Palestinians, even Palestinian children, is no justification. It is not for Israel's enemies to mimic its evil deeds.
To target and kill civilians is the worst of crimes against humanity. Killing Israeli holiday-makers, or those waiting for buses in Israel, is no different to Serbs slaughtering the innocents of Srebrenica, other than in scale. Those who organized the Mombasa attacks are on a par with the Milosevics and Karadzics of this world - just as cruel, vile and culpable.
Nor will such evil advance the Palestinian cause. It will set it back - which is why this coordinated attack, for all its apparent sophistication, was so insane. All that the Palestinians have is the moral high ground, based on the justice of their cause. That high ground is the only hope of a free Palestine being one day created. It is reinforced when the world sees pictures of Palestinian homes bulldozed and innocent Palestinian children killed. But it works the other way too. Every time a suicide bomb goes off in Israel, every time Israeli civilians are killed, at a club, at a bus stop, that moral high ground is eroded. Whether or not Palestinians were involved in the Mombassa action, they will, sadly, be tainted by it.
There is another reason why this attack sets their cause back. It and the bus attack in northern Israel are precisely the sort of action that frightens the Israelis into Ariel Sharon's bloodstained arms. He - and Netanyahu - alone gain.
There will be other victims too - Muslim victims - as a result of this insane action. Tanzanian and Kenyan Muslims still feel the weight of discrimination and suspicion as a result of Al-Qaeda's 1998 US Embassy attacks in the two countries. In Tanzania there has been outrage among Muslims at a new terrorism law which they believe discriminates specifically against them. This bombing will make matters immeasurably worse. It will be used by Tanzania to justify the new law and could be used by both states to clamp down even tighter. Not that Al-Qaeda will care.
Return To Top November 30, 2002
Britain, France, Indian forces conduct joint exercises in Desert
From the Islamic Republic News Agency of Iran.
New Delhi, Nov 29, IRNA -- The Indian Army and the Air Force are
conducting joint exercises with British and French Air Forces in
the desert, official sources said in Jodhpur in the western Indian
state of Rajasthan.
The sources said, the exercises in air and land coordinated
combats are being held at Salawas Air Field, near Jodhpur, reported
Press Trust of India (PTI).
The pilots of the three forces conducted exercises for dropping
combat troopers, equipped with arms and ammunition in the desert
battlefield.
The exercise also included carrying out operations in stark
darkness.
The chief of British Royal Air Force, Sir Peter Squire, arrived in
Jodhpur on a two-day visit on Thursday.
He was received by Air Commodore C S Gill at the airforce base.
Return To Top November 30, 2002
Jamali govt may review cases against Benazir, Zardari
Extracts from a story by Rauf Klasra in the Jang of Pakistan.
We had noted some days ago that President Musharraf, under US pressure, is prepared to let Mrs. Benazir Bhutto return to Pakistan and to dismiss corruption cases against her husband if he would agree to leave Pakistan. In turn, Mrs. Bhutto's PPP would support the President's party, which has formed a minority government at the center. The talks became stalled because Mrs. Bhutto's husband refused to leave Pakistan. The saga continues.
ISLAMABAD: The Jamali Government is to review cases against PPP leader Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari after Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat and Defence Minister Rao Sikandar sought details of all cases against the two from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB).
Although Prime Minister Jamali said in Lahore that Benazir would have to face these cases, sources said both Faisal Saleh Hayat and Rao Sikandar were trying to mediate between the Jamali government and Benazir Bhutto.
Benazir Bhutto has already indicated that she would review any 'solid' proposals which may come from the Jamali government or from President General Pervez Musharraf. Apparently the PPP has very tough stance against the dissidents, but insiders said Benazir was still interested in proposals if they come from the government. The sources said both Faisal Saleh Hayat and Defence Minister Rao Sikandar were trying to negotiate matters with the powers that be before formally contacting Benazir Bhutto.
They said earlier the interior minister had expressed his desire to go through all the details of cases filed against Bhutto and Zardari and see what kind of agreeable solution could be worked out.
They said the interior minister was trying to convince the powers that be that the cases were filed during the tenure of the Nawaz Sharif government and were politically motivated and thus contain little value in the eyes of public. [Editor's emphasis]
Return To Top November 30, 2002
MOMBASA, Kenya: Six Pakistanis and three Somalis were among 12 people held for questioning Friday in Kenya about the anti-Israeli attacks that left 16 people dead near Mombasa, police said.
Police spokesman King'ori Mwangi said the three others under detention were an American, a Spaniard and a Kenyan, but he did not say whether they were suspects in the attacks.
In Washington, a US State Department official said an American woman and her Spanish husband were "innocent backpackers and were just in the wrong place at the wrong time," and would be freed shortly. The official said the couple, who were not identified, were on vacation in Kenya at the time of Thursday's attacks and were among 12 people picked up by authorities in a sweep of Mombasa. The husband holds an American "green card" which entitles him to residency and employment in the United States, the US official said.
Meanwhile, Mwangi said that nine of those detained were picked up from two boats that were intercepted at sea apparently trying to leave Mombasa following the attacks. Kenyan investigators, joined by Israeli and US colleagues, were on Friday pursuing leads into the attacks amid growing suspicion worldwide they may have been carried out by Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network.
Police commissioner Philemon Abong'o said investigators had found the licence plates of the explosives-laden vehicle which blew up when it hit the hotel in the whitesand resort of Kikambala, just as a group of 140 Israeli tourists were checking in.
The plates were traced to a Kenyan company, which may have been the previous owner, although it was possible they might be fakes, he said. It was still not clear if any of the three people seen in the vehicle before it blew up had actually managed to escape at the last minute, he added. He said witnesses had reported that the people who fired on the plane had fled in a "white Pajero".
Return To Top November 30, 2002
Saudis may panic and sell US investments: Alwaleed
Extract from a story in the Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia.
LONDON, 30 November 2002 - The Times yesterday quoted Prince Alwaleed ibn Talal as saying some Saudi investors would panic and sell US investments because Saudi Arabia was portrayed by some Western media as not cooperating with the United States in its "war on terror".
Alwaleed's comments to the Times came after he denied a report in August of Saudi "panic selling" of US investments.
At the time, he did not see an outflow of Saudi funds from the United States in reaction to perceived anti-Saudi sentiment.
Alwaleed did not offer an estimate of the scale of any withdrawal of funds, but said a forecast in August of $200 billion was "far too high", the Times reported.
He said: "These investors will go to Europe or Japan or Latin America or bring back their money to the Middle East. But not in the amount that people have claimed, nothing like $200 billion."
Alwaleed has vowed never to sell a single stock of his US holdings for political reasons. He has a stake in Citigroup Inc. worth several billion dollars.
Alwaleed said he would not sell his US stock even if he believed the media companies in which he invests, including AOL Time Warner and News Corp, portrayed Arabs or Muslims in an unflattering light.
In London, the euro remained firm against the dollar in late trading yesterday, underpinned by concerns that Saudi investors may pull money out of the US economy, analysts said.
"The market is getting worried that Arab money would pull out of the States because they fear that their accounts would be frozen if there was another terrorist attack," said Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas. (R)
Return To Top November 30, 2002
Ahmed Rashid, writing in the Nation of Pakistan. WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD-Mir Zafrullah Khan Jamali, the 58-year-old Balochpolitician has pledged to continue President Pervez Musharraf's foreign andeconomic policies. Within the first few days of his new government takingoffice, that is already proving extremely difficult especially in the realm offoreign policy. The self-effacing Jamali faces a fractured ruling coalition andthe most aggressive anti-military opposition in the country's parliamentaryhistory. He also has to deal with an all powerful President who remains armychief and retains the power to dismiss the Prime Minister and parliament, anarmy dominated National Security Council and an uncertain regional andinternational situation. He also faces dealing with Musharraf's legacy inforeign policy which has seen Pakistan take twist and turn in the past 12months. Despite Pakistan's support to the US in the war on terrorism and PresidentGeorge Bush's continuing public expressions of support to Musharraf, Islamabadfaces mounting criticism from within the Bush administration. ''Musharraf hasmade so many unfulfilled promises and pledges to the US that his credibilityhere is at an all time low,'' says a senior US official in Washington. ''Thereare too many contentious issues coming to a head and the (US-Pakistan)relationship is skating on very thin ice,'' he adds. Members of the US Congress are demanding that Pakistan be punished for allegedlyaiding North Korea's nuclear weapons programme in exchange for receiving NorthKorean made nuclear capable missiles. Pakistan's public denials were coupledwith private assurances from Musharraf that no such cooperation took place onhis watch. That argument suffered a setback after leaks from the CIA appeared inthe US media that cooperation between the two countries was taking place asrecently as July. US Secretary of State Colin Powell warned Pakistan on Tuesdaythat it could face ''consequences'' if the US discovers that Pakistan continuesto make alleged nuclear transfers to North Korea. ''In my conversations withPresident Musharraf, I have made clear to him that any sort of contact betweenPakistan and North Korea we believes would be improper, inappropriate and wouldhave consequences,'' Powell said on a visit to Mexico. Since then a North Koreanspy now living n Japan has alleged there were Pakistani engineers working inNorth Korea as early as 1994. US officials also say Pakistan continues to allow infiltration of militants intoIndian Kashmir despite Musharraf's pledge in June to cease doing so a chargePakistan denies. US officials have warned Pakistan not to underestimate India'spossible military reaction if there are major terrorist attacks in IndianKashmir this winter. Last weekend some 50 people - militants, Indian securitypersonnel and civilians - died in violence in Indian Kashmir. There appears tobe little change in Pakistan's policy of backing militancy despite a newgovernment in Srinagar that has pledged to address Kashmiri grievances and talkto the militants. The need for a political strategy from Islamabad to deal withIndia and Kashmir has been profoundly lacking in the past few months. US officials also say several Western intelligence agencies have determined thatalthough the Pakistan military is still continuing to help arrest al-Qaedamilitants based in Pakistan, it is pursuing a more aggressive policy inAfghanistan by harbouring former Taliban leaders and supporters of the renegadePashtun militant Gulbuddin Hikmetyar who is a prime target for US forces inAfghanistan. Hikmetyar has issued a call to his fellow Pashtuns for a jehadagainst US forces and the government of President Hamid Karzai. Militaryofficers say there is strong resentment in the ISI of the huge influence ofIndia and Russia in Kabul and the loss of influence of the Afghan Pashtuns inthe Kabul government. Pakistan has always supported the Pashtun population ofAfghanistan although its clients over the past two decades have all been fromextremist Pashtun factions. Moreover, after an audio tape made by Osama Bin Laden was handed over to an Arabreporter in Islamabad in broad daylight on November 12, Musharraf faced severeinternational embarrassment. In the past Musharraf has repeatedly asserted that Bin Laden is dead and Al'Qaeda has little presence in Pakistan, but FBIofficials have said that the tape is real and that bin Laden is alive. USofficials now say that they believe Bin Laden is hiding either in Pakistan'stribal belt along the border with Afghanistan, while Al'Qaeda maintainssignificant communications and logistics hubs in Islamabad and Karachi or thathe may have escaped to Yemen from a Pakistani port on the Arabian Sea. In thepast few days Pakistani and FBI officials have arrested at least 16 suspectedterrorists in the past few days, who are suspected to be involved in handingover the tape. But with the ISI supposedly watching over the activities of Arabjournalists in Islamabad, especially those with well known contacts withAl'Qaeda, what the government has failed to explain is how such a tape could bedelivered in the nation's capital without the culprit being caught. For the moment an open rift between the US and Pakistan is unlikely. USofficials say Secretary Powell is trying to keep the nuclear issue and otherbones of contention with Pakistan under wraps because the State Department iswary of opening a front with Pakistan when it faces renewed threats fromAl'Qaeda, a war in Iraq and continuing Indo-Pakistan tensions. For its partPakistani officials have warned Washington that with anti-American feeling onthe rise across the country, Musharraf has no choice but to show someindependence from US pressures and demands. However the real fear is that the MMA which openly supports the Taliban and hasrefused to condemn Al'Qaeda for terrorism, will now step up the harbouring ofTaliban leaders hiding in the NWFP and also implement tough Islamic policiesincluding the imposition of Sharia law when it forms the provincial government.On Wednesday Bakht Jehan, an MMA candidate was elected as Speaker of the NWFPprovincial legislature in the first step towards MMA forming the government.Before the vote MPs led prayers condemning the US for its war in Afghanistan andprayed that America be ''ruined and destroyed.'' ''We have opposed thegovernment's pro-US policies particularly operations aided by the US,'' said MMAleader and MP Akram Durrani who is expected to be elected as Chief Minister ofthe NWFP. ''We will neither allow our land to be used for terrorist activities,nor will we allow any operation particularly involving FBI agents,'' he added. The advent of the MMA government is already creating grave apprehensions inWashington and Kabul. ''We are extremely concerned at the election victory offriends of Taliban in the Frontier province,'' says Zalmay Rassoul, the nationalsecurity adviser to Karzai who was visiting Washington. ''We want a declarationof non-interference from all our neighbours,'' he adds. President Karzai and theUN will hold a meeting of all the Foreign Ministers of countries neighbouring Afghanistan on December 22 in Kabul, in order to extract a pledge ofnon-interference in Afghanistan's affairs. However the MMA are likely to ignoresuch pledges and defy Islamabad by continuing support for the Taliban. Jamali's narrow majority and the debt he owes Musharraf for his elevation meanshe will have to depend largely on political support from the military ratherthan his own fragile political alliance. He has to take a vote of confidencefrom parliament in the next 60 days and both opposition groupings arethreatening to cooperate to bring his government down. The army's aim is to keepthe opposition divided which will imply its continued interference inparliament. Warns PPP's Shah Mehmood Qureshi, ''Jamali has to decide whetherpower lies with the elected parliament or with the army.'' Jamali's fragile majority and precarious grip on power has to be seen in thecontext of a worsening relationship with the world's only superpower and thefact that India and other adversaries will only try to take advantage of theemerging impasse which the new government is faced with. For the military it isconvenient to have a civilian façade to now defend its convoluted foreignpolicies which are now coming home to roost, except that the first casualty islikely to be the military's credibility both at home and abroad, as it is nosecret that the army continues to dominate all key areas of the nation's foreignpolicy. For the moment Musharraf remains in charge. A few days before Jamali waselected, Musharraf issued a controversial Ordinance which allows securityagencies to detain a terrorist suspect for up to a year without any charges oreven the need to produce him in court. The move was immediately denounced byhuman rights and lawyers groups, who said the law would be used to harass thepolitical opposition. Musharraf did not respond to their concerns as the movewas supported by Washington. What is at stake now is that for how long canMusharraf continue to depend on US support.
Return To Top November 30, 2002
Swiss institute concludes latest bin Laden tape is not authentic
ERICA BULMAN of the Associated Press reports [Extracts]:
GENEVA - Tests performed on the latest audiotape statement attributed to Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) showed the speaker was an impostor, though insufficient data rendered the test inconclusive, a Swiss research institute said Friday.
Herve Bourlard, director of Dalle Molle Institute for Perceptual Artificial Intelligence, said he tended to agree with the outcome that the tape does not feature the voice of the long-absent terrorist leader, but that the margin of error was too great to be absolutely certain.
"I'd have to say the test was inconclusive but I would lean toward it being an impostor," Bourlard, a voice recognition expert, said. "If I had a gun to my head and was forced to lean one way or the other, I'd say it wasn't bin Laden. But we can't be sure. We didn't have enough data."
The Swiss institute first created a computerized model of bin Laden's voice based on video recordings. To verify the model's reliability, scientists then tested that model with other recordings which were from bin Laden and others which were not.
The computer made one error in 20 tests conducted, Bourlard said, mistaking bin Laden's voice as a fake.
"That's a lot," said Bourlard. "We worry because there were so few samples to create the model with and only 20 samples to test with. One mistake in 20 is not very reliable."
On the final test conducted with the Nov. 12 recording aired on Al-Jazeera, the computer determined the voice was not bin Laden's. He said the recording was of very poor quality.
"The CIA may be sure but no scientist in the world will tell you that you can be 100 percent sure in this area. It's not possible," Bourlard said. "Politicians will always tell you they're certain, scientists will always say there is doubt.
"We are using state-of-the-art technology and methods. There are only about 10 of us (labs) in the world capable of doing these kinds of tests reliably and we're all using the same methods. I can't see how they can be so certain."
Bourlard said to increase reliability, more samples would be needed both to create the model as well as test it.
"There are rumors that bin Laden used to work for the CIA so maybe they have a lot more voice samples," Bourlard said. "If the CIA had 2,000 samples, then it might be more reliable."
Return To Top November 30, 2002
Pakistan begins troops pull-back Pakistan begins troops pull-back
From Pakistan's Jang
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has moved some troops to peacetime locations, said spokesman for military Major General Rashid Qureshi on Thursday.
Qureshi said the troops are being withdrawn from time to time as India pulls back its troops. India had mobilised some 700,000 troops to frontline positions along the internationally recognised border and on Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Pakistan followed suit and had deployed 250,000 to 300,000 troops. Many feared that the heavy militarisation almost erupted into a war and could go nuclear. An intensive international lobbying, led by the US and Britain, however, pulled back the countries from the brink of an all-out confrontation.
India announced on October 16 that it would withdraw troops from forward positions along the international border, while maintaining an estimated 250,000 troops on the LoC. Pakistan said it would reciprocate and start its troop withdrawal after New Delhi made the first move.
"We had already indicated that the moment the threat from India recedes, and as India withdraws troops, Pakistan would reciprocate," Qureshi said. India's defence minister George Fernandes acknowledged a day earlier that Pakistan had pulled some troops back to peace-time locations. Qureshi said the withdrawal process was "ongoing" but declined to go into detail about troop numbers and movements, saying they were operational areas. "Whenever the threat recedes, we reciprocate," he said.
Return To Top November 29, 2002
Bangladesh rejects India's terror charges A story from the Times of India by AUNOHITA MOJUMDAR
NEW DELHI: Bangladesh has reacted sharply to Indian charges that it is harbouring either al-Qaeda activists or ISI men, with its High Commissioner in New Delhi, Tufail K Haider, terming the allegations a "rather unfortunate and avoidable development." Speaking to The Times of India, Haider said that the charges being levelled both by the government and through the media had not been communicated to Bangladesh officially. "All issues between the two countries can be resolved through discussion and mutual accomodation. India's allegations must be verified through official channels and discussions and not through a war of words by media" he said. While Haider did not name External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, he responded to charges made by Sinha in Parliament on Wednesday, saying it was "baseless and untrue to state that Bangladesh had become a base for the al-Qaeda and the ISI". Bangladesh was party to UN and Saarc resolutions against terrorism and would never allow its territory to be used for any activities against its neighbour conciously and deliberately, he said. While Haider felt bilateral relations had not soured to the extent where they could not be pulled back, he said what was required for this now was political direction at the highest level. While Haider stopped short of blaming the government or attributing motives, Bangladeshi diplomatic sources said it was insulting to suggest that Bangladesh was becoming a new depot for al-Qaeda activities. Terming it "nonsense", the sources said India should deal with its neighbours with more sensitivity rather than "humiliating a smaller neighbour". The sources suggested that the entire problem had arisen with the assumption that the new government of Khaleda Zia was somehow more inimical to India. This had led not only to the recent statement but a spate of reports in the media that were obviously written on the basis of 'information' provided by the government. Most of this was insinuation and innuendo rather than any specific charge and if there were any reports compiled of specific terrorist acitivity in Bangladesh then this information was yet to be shared with Dhaka, the diplomatic sources said. The sources accused India of using the al-Qaeda card in a bid to play to the Western - especially the American - gallery, but stated that India should not smear Bangladesh in its attempt to fall into America's lap.
Return To Top November 29, 2002
Retrospective: Debka Article of November 25
November 25: In the last few hours DEBKAfile counter-terror sources report a heightened volume of traffic over the Arabic Internet forums frequented by al Qaeda and its partisans. Most of the last messages end: "The zero hour has come."
One particular release was aired three times today, all posted by "ARAMCO boy". The last one to reach our sources was issued at 12:28 EST, 19:28 IST.
"Today, at 6:20 hours, there will be a surprise program, one of the most beautiful I have ever seen over our Qatari channel. Anyone who knows what I mean must tell no one so as to keep the surprise whose content everyone will love. Only God knows what I mean. The program forced me to write these lines at great speed and I ask God to forgive me and reserve Paradise and not Hell for me. The zero hour has come."
According to DEBKAfile's sources, these messages may be red herrings designed to confuse and mislead outside monitors. However, the source who picked up the latest batch was the first to detect and correctly interpret at least two such enigmatic messages in recent months as presaging the re-appearance of Osama bin Laden and his lieutenant Ayman Zuwahri after many months out of sight. They were followed by pre-recorded statements over al Jazeera satellite TV. The timing too is suggestive: Thursday, November 28, is Thanksgiving Day in the United States.
Also worth noting is that while messages over these forums usually draw responses, the one cited here went unanswered.
Three days after this was received, two simultaneous terrorist attacks targeted Israelis in Mombasa, Kenya at a hotel and aboard an airliner. Three Israelis, including two young girls, were killed in a bomb blast that wrecked the Mombasa Paradise hotel and 80 were injured. The Arkia Boeing 757 escaped harm from two Strella missiles shot from a white minivan as it lifted off from Mombasa airport with 260 passengers.
DEBKAfile counter-terror experts note: The Mombasa attacks like the Bali bombing targeted exotic tourist spots frequented by Western vacationers - focusing on Australians in the first and Israelis in the second
Return To Top November 29, 2002
South Asia SMUGGLERS, SPIES MOVE AL-QAIDA IN, OUT OF AFGHANISTAN
Extract from a Wall Street Journal article forwarded by Ram Narayanan.
A murky network of smugglers,
politicians and spies is moving money to Taliban and
al-Qaida fugitives, secreting their operatives out of
the region and ferrying others in, according to
intelligence officials and a former Taliban commander.
Several al-Qaida men have left Afghanistan for Algeria
in recent days, Fazul Rabi Said Rahman, a former
Taliban corps commander, told The Associated Press in
an interview Tuesday. A European intelligence source
says others are slipping quietly into the region, and
the numbers are on the increase.
Another former Taliban official, who refused to be
identified by rank or name, said several al-Qaida
fugitives were smuggled out of Afghanistan in recent
weeks. They were taken out through Pakistan's Tirah
Valley, a deeply remote region ringed by towering
peaks.
The man who is said to have helped them escape, an
al-Qaida sympathizer named Anwarul Haq Mujahed,
himself eluded capture this month.
American and Afghan special forces in search of
Mujahed raided several places in eastern Afghanistan,
including the International Islamic Relief
Organization, where he was believed to have contacts.
They also raided his father's farm in Farmada,
according to Haji Zaman Khan, an ally of the U.S.-led
coalition during last December's assault on Tora Bora.
The farm, a well-known refuge for al-Qaida members
during and after the Taliban rule, was bombed several
times during the U.S.-led coalition's campaign.
Mujahed's father, Maulvi Yunus Khalis, was a
U.S.-backed commander during the 1980s Soviet invasion
of Afghanistan. He swore allegiance to the northern
alliance government, but Taliban in hiding say he has
remained close to his onetime al-Qaida friends.
"Mujahed helped at least 100 of the al Qaida men who
wanted to escape Afghanistan," Zaman told the AP
Tuesday. "Just in the last month I know he helped some
escape."
Before U.S. Special Forces could locate him, Mujahed
was spirited out of Nangarhar province, through
Dar-e-Nur in eastern Afghanistan, to Laghman province
and then to Kabul where he was flown aboard an Afghan
Ariana flight to Pakistan's frontier city of Peshawar,
assisted along the way by men loyal to Khalis. Some of
these men are allegedly part of the Afghan government,
including the Nangarhar military chief Hazrat Ali and
Nangarhar governor Din Mohammed.
Dr Amir admits treating Osama
From Pakistan's Jang
LAHORE: Dr Amir Aziz, who was recently released after being held for one month and questioned by US security officials said on Wednesday he saw Osama bin Laden last November and that the al-Qaeda leader was in excellent health.
"When I saw him last he was in excellent health," Dr Amir Aziz told The Associated Press. "He was walking. He was healthy." Amir, a British-trained orthopaedic surgeon, said he was summoned to a meeting in November, 2001 in Kabul, the Afghan capital. He was asked to treat top al-Qaeda leader Muhammad Atef. Bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, were present.
Amir said bin Laden showed no signs of the kidney failure that he is widely reported to suffer from. "I didn't see any evidence of kidney disease. I didn't see any evidence of dialysis," he said.
Amir said it was the second time he met bin Laden. The first time was in 1999 when Aziz said he treated the al-Qaeda leader after he hurt his back falling off a horse in southern Afghanistan. Bin Laden was in good health at both meetings, he said. He spoke to the AP at his clinic in Lahore. He admitted that he had treated al-Qaeda and Taliban members but said he knew nothing of the terrorist group's plans and rejected allegations he helped the organisation in its efforts to obtain weapons of mass destruction.
Reports of bin Laden's poor health, and his deteriorating appearance in video tapes released shortly after US bombing began in Afghanistan at the end of 2001, fuelled speculation that he might have died. But intelligence officials now say an audiotape released last month was recorded recently and was the voice of the al-Qaeda leader.
At the time of the last meeting with bin Laden, Amir was working in a surgical unit at the University of Jalalabad, near the border with Pakistan. Amir said his American interrogators grilled him on bin Laden's health, asked him for the names of those he treated, and accused him of helping al-Qaeda obtain weapons of mass destruction. He denied the allegations.
Sri Lanka's LTTE drops demand for independence
From Pakistan's Jang
COLOMBO: The leader of the Tamil Tiger rebels on Wednesday said that he was prepared to accept regional autonomy for his people within Sri Lanka, dropping a decades-old demand for independence.
Velupillai Prabhakaran warned that the separatist struggle would resume if negotiations for self-rule broke down. In a speech broadcast on the rebel radio, Prabhakaran said that he would "favourably consider a political framework that offers substantial regional autonomy and self-government to the Tamil people on the basis of their right to internal self-determination".
But he added: "If our demand for regional self-rule based on the right to internal self-determination is rejected, we have no alternative other than to secede and form an independent state."
The Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) entered a ceasefire in February and in their first round of peace talks in September the Tigers' top negotiator, Anton Balasingham, dropped the demand for independence and agreed to pursue regional autonomy. However, this is the first time the elusive Prabhakaran, who has not attended the peace talks himself, has commented on the issue.
Prabhakaran was speaking to mark "Heroes Day", which commemorates the more than 17,000 rebels who have died fighting to establish a homeland separate from the island's majority Sinhalese community. The rebel leader blamed the failure of previous peace bids on the "hardline attitude and deceitful political approaches" of previous administrations in Colombo.
"Now the government of Ranil Wickremesinghe is attempting to resolve the problems with the Tamils with sincerity and courage," the rebel leader said. But he demanded that the "urgent and immediate problems of our people" be resolved quickly during peace talks.
Specifically, he accused the Sri Lankan army of turning Jaffna into "an open prison" through a heavy troop presence and the continued displacement of some civilians. "Unless this problem is resolved there is no possibility for normalcy and social peace to be restored in Jaffna," Prabhakaran said. The government and LTTE are expected to hold a third round of Norwegian-brokered peace talks next week in Oslo.
The rebel leader said that it was "our deepest desire" that the peace process succeed. He said that the Tigers had maintained "rigid discipline and observed peace" under the nine-month-old ceasefire and accused "anti-peace racist forces" of trying to disrupt the peace process.
Despite the Tigers' guerrilla campaign, including 247 suicide bombings that have cost the lives of former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa, Prabhakaran said the rebels "have never shown any disinclination to win political rights of our people through peaceful means".
The rebels showed signs this "Heroes Day" that their suicide squad, known as the "Black Tigers", had not been disbanded. At least 27 Black Tigers marched in black uniforms, their heads masked to prevent identification, at a rally at Vadamarachchi district in the rebel-held north. This was the first "Heroes Day" openly commemorated in government-controlled areas. Hundreds gathered to mourn the Tamil Tiger dead in Batticaloa.
Return To Top November 28, 2002
US lets Pakistan off the hook on Korea ties US lets Pakistan off the hook on Korea ties
Extracts from a story by CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA writing in the Times of India
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Colin Powell has certified that there is no ongoing nuclear missile exchanges between Pakistan and North Korea, but warned that any future interaction would be "improper, inappropriate and have consequences".
While clearing the US "frontline ally" of current transgressions, Powell did not deny media reports that there was a nexus between the two renegade countries as recently as middle of this year, but indicated that all that was in the past and was forgiven.
"He (General Musharraf) has assured me on more than one occasion that there are no further contacts and he guarantees that there are no contacts of the kind that were referred to in the article," Powell, referring to a recent media report, told reporters en route to Mexico at the start of a two-day visit.
The multiple caveats and qualifications he invoked in his attestation, which obliquely confirm recent reports about the exchanges, lets Pakistan off the hook for now. Any direct confirmation of the reports would have by law enjoined the United States to impose sanctions on Pakistan.
However, even while glossing over reports of the nexus, Powell issued a subtle warning to Pakistan seemingly to appease the non-proliferation lobby that has been leaking the stories to the media.
"In my conversations with President Musharraf in recent months, I have made it clear to him that any, any sort of contact between Pakistan and North Korea we believe would be improper, inappropriate and would have consequences," he said. "President Musharraf understands the seriousness of this issue."
However, Congressional sources said the issue is certain to figure in the upcoming 108th session of the legislature scheduled for January.
Return To Top November 27, 2002
MMA govt to block al-Qaeda hunt in tribal area: Durrani
From Pakistan's Jang
PESHAWAR: The MMA, leading the NWFP's new parliament, vowed on Tuesday to block the manhunt for al-Qaeda in their tribal-dominated region, where the US military believe hundreds of the extremists are hiding.
"We have opposed the government's pro-US policies, particularly operations aided by (the US) and we shall maintain our opposition," Akram Durrani, the likely chief minister of NWFP, told AFP in an interview.
"We will neither allow our land to be used for terrorist activities, nor will we allow any operation particularly involving the FBI agents. People who voted for the MMA voted against such actions," he said, a day after the NWFP parliament took oath.
Durrani, from the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) and controls 68 seats in the 124-seat house, is the only candidate so far for the chief minister. The position would be chosen by the provincial assembly on Friday.
The MMA's clerics vowed to throw US troops off Pakistani airbases, where they have been based for operations in Afghanistan, and to expel US Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI) experts who have been tipping off and guiding Pakistani troops in flushing out al-Qaeda fighters.
Durrani's latest comments indicate a return to their campaign pledges, now the MMA has settled for an opposition role at the federal level. He said that the Islamic parties would also prevent foreigners from using Pakistan as their base and stop "foreign agencies" from operating in the country. "If they (foreigners) want to carry out activities, they should go to their respective countries," Durrani said.
Another leader from Durrani's Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam party, MNA Hafiz Hussain Ahmed said that there would be no backdown in pledges to thwart the al-Qaeda hunt. "People throughout Pakistan have voted for us in large numbers for our resistance against all such operations, and we will not withdraw from this stand," he told AFP.
The JUI leader said that the operation would face resistance from the NWFP's government, setting it on a collision course with the federal government. While, new Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali has promised to carry on Musharraf's cooperation with the US-led al-Qaeda hunt. "We will resist any such action both as the government in NWFP and as the opposition in the national assembly," Hafiz Hussain added.
[Editor: The new government of the NWFP is, of course, in no position to thwart either President Musharraf or the United States. Nonetheless, if one were to take these threats seriously, one would have to ask the MMA, the new Pakistani religious party, to carefully define what it means by "terrorist activities". For examples, does the MMA consider Al-Qaeda to be a terrorist organization?]
Return To Top November 27, 2002
Headlines from the Jerusalem Post
Two Palestinians killed in IDF airstrike in Jenin
UN worker phoned IDF officer minutes before he was killed
PA legislator threatens US with suicide attacks
Sharon's lead widens ahead of primary vote Prolonged drought projected for Middle East US team to grapple with Israeli aid request IDF captures Tanzim commander in Ramallah UNRWA legal adviser's husband investigated PA court expected to order release of 'Karine A' financer Fatah urges PA to confront Hamas Mofaz: Palestinians increasing violence to influence elections Mubarak invites Mitzna to Cairo for talks Return To Top November 27, 2002
In North Korea and Pakistan, Deep Roots of Nuclear Barter IN NORTH KOREA AND PAKISTAN, DEEP ROOTS OF NUCLEAR BARTER
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, a story by David E. Sanger, from the New York Times; November 24, 2002.
Editor's Note
Normally we would see no reason to impose such a long and wretchedly boring story on our readers. This story, however, is so full of examples of how subtly the American do their propaganda, that's its worth looking at. Now, a full analysis of the piece would take a few tens of thousands of words, quite aside from the question of how easy it really is to for fourth rate industrial powers to construct gas centrifuges using smuggled components. Today we will content ourselves with pointing out three instance of propagandizing.
SEOUL, South Korea, Nov. 21 - Last July, American intelligence agencies tracked
a Pakistani cargo aircraft as it landed at a North Korean airfield and took on a
secret payload: ballistic missile parts, the chief export of North Korea's
military.
The shipment was brazen enough, in full view of American spy satellites. But
intelligence officials who described the incident say even the mode of transport
seemed a subtle slap at Washington: the Pakistani plane was an American-built
C-130.
It was part of the military force that President Pervez Musharraf had told
President Bush last year would be devoted to hunting down the terrorists of Al
Qaeda, one reason the administration was hailing its new cooperation with a
country that only a year before it had labeled a rogue state.
But several times since that new alliance was cemented, American intelligence
agencies watched silently as Pakistan's air fleet conducted a deadly barter with
North Korea. In transactions intelligence agencies are still unraveling, the
North provided General Musharraf with missile parts he needs to build a nuclear
arsenal capable of reaching every strategic site in India.
In a perfect marriage of interests, Pakistan provided the North with many of the
designs for gas centrifuges and much of the machinery it needs to make highly
enriched uranium for the country's latest nuclear weapons project, one intended
to put at risk South Korea, Japan and 100,000 American troops in Northeast Asia.
The Central Intelligence Agency told members of Congress this week that North
Korea's uranium enrichment program, which it discovered only this summer, will
produce enough material to produce weapons in two to three years. Previously it
has estimated that North Korea probably extracted enough plutonium from a
nuclear reactor to build one or two weapons, until that program was halted in
1994 in a confrontation with the United States.
Yet the C.I.A. report - at least the unclassified version - made no mention of
how one of the world's poorest and most isolated nations put together its new,
complex uranium project.
In interviews over the past three weeks, officials and experts in Washington,
Pakistan and here in the capital of South Korea described a relationship between
North Korea and Pakistan that now appears much deeper and more dangerous than
the United States and its Asian allies first suspected.
The accounts raise disturbing questions about the nature of the uneasy American
alliance with General Musharraf's government. The officials and experts
described how, even after Mr. Musharraf sided with the United States in ousting
the Taliban and hunting down Qaeda leaders, Pakistan's secretive A. Q. Khan
Nuclear Research Laboratories continued its murky relationship with the North
Korean military. It was a partnership linking an insecure Islamic nation and a
failing Communist one, each in need of the other's expertise.
Pakistan was desperate to counter India's superior military force, but
encountered years of American-imposed sanctions, so it turned to North Korea.
For its part, North Korea, increasingly cut off from Russia and China, tried to
replicate Pakistan's success in developing nuclear weapons based on uranium, one
of the few commodities that North Korea has in plentiful supply.
Yet while the United States has put tremendous diplomatic pressure on North
Korea in the past two months to abandon the project, and has cut off oil
supplies to the country, it has never publicly discussed the role of Pakistan or
other nations in supplying that effort.
American and South Korean officials, when speaking anonymously, say the reason
is obvious: the Bush administration has determined that Pakistan's cooperation
in the search for Al Qaeda is so critical - especially with new evidence
suggesting that Osama bin Laden is still alive, perhaps on Pakistani soil.
So far, the White House has ignored federal statutes that require President Bush
to impose stiff economic penalties on any country involved in nuclear
proliferation or, alternatively, to issue a public waiver of those penalties in
the interest of national security. Mr. Bush last year removed penalties that
were imposed on Pakistan after it set off a series of nuclear tests in 1998.
White House officials would not comment on the record for this article, saying
that discussing Pakistan's role could compromise classified intelligence.
Instead, they noted that General Musharraf, after first denying Pakistani
involvement in North Korea's nuclear effort, has assured Secretary of State
Colin L. Powell that no such trade will occur in the future.
"He said, `Four hundred percent assurance that there is no such interchange
taking place now,' " Secretary Powell said in a briefing late last month.
Pressed about Pakistan's contributions to the nuclear program that North Korea
admitted to last month, Secretary Powell smiled tightly and said, "We didn't
talk about the past."
A State Department spokesman, Philip Reeker, said, "We are aware of the
allegations" about Pakistan, though he would not comment on the substance. "This
adminsitration will abide by the law," he said.
Intelligence officials say they have seen no evidence of exchanges since
Washington protested the July missile shipment. Even in that incident, they
cannot determine if the C-130 that picked up missile parts in North Korea
brought nuclear-related goods to North Korea.
But American and Asian officials are far from certain that Pakistan has cut off
the relationship, or even whether General Musharraf is in control of the
transactions.
Yet in the words of one American official who has reviewed the intelligence,
North Korea's drive in the past year to begin full-scale enrichment of uranium
uses technology that "has `Made in Pakistan' stamped all over it." They doubt
that North Korea will end its effort even if Pakistan cuts off its supplies.
"In Kim Jong Il's view, what's the difference between North Korea and Iraq?"
asked one senior American official with long experience dealing with North
Korea. "Saddam doesn't have one, and look what's happening to him."
A Meeting of Minds in 1993
Pakistan's military ties to North Korea go back to the 1970's. But they took a
decisive turn in 1993, just as the United States was forcing the North to open
up its huge nuclear reactor facilities at Yongbyon. Yongbyon was clearly a
factory for producing bomb-grade plutonium from spent nuclear fuel.
When North Korea refused to allow in inspectors headed by Hans Blix, the man now
leading the inspections in Iraq, President Bill Clinton went to the United
Nations to press penalties and the Pentagon drew up contingency plans for a
strike against the plant in case North Korea removed the fuel rods to begin
making bomb-grade plutonium.
In the midst of that face-off, Benazir Bhutto, then the prime minister of
Pakistan, arrived in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. It was the end of
December, freezing cold, and yet the North Korean government arranged for tens
of thousands of the city's well-trained citizens to greet her on the streets. At
a state dinner, Ms. Bhutto complained about the American penalties imposed on
her country and North Korea.
"Pakistan is committed to nuclear nonproliferation," she said, according to a
transcript issued at the time. However, she added, states still have "their
right to acquire and develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, geared to
their economic and social developments."
Ms. Bhutto's delegation left with plans for North Korea's Nodong missile,
according to former and current Pakistani officials.
The Pakistani military had long coveted the plans, and by April 1998, it
successfully tested a version of the Nodong, renamed the Ghauri. Its flight
range of about 1,000 miles put much of India within reach of Pakistan's nuclear
warheads.
A former senior Pakistani official recalled in an interview that the Bhutto
government planned to pay North Korea "from the invisible account" for covert
programs. But events intervened.
Months after Ms. Bhutto's visit, the Clinton administration and North Korea
reached a deal that froze all nuclear activity at Yongbyon, where international
inspectors still live year-round.
In return, the United States and its allies promised North Korea a steady flow
of fuel oil and the eventual delivery of two proliferation-resistant nuclear
reactors to produce electric power. That was important in a country so lacking
in power that, from satellite images taken at night, it appears like a black
hole compared to the blazing lights of South Korea.
But within three years, Kim Jong Il grew disenchanted with the accord and feared
that the nuclear power plants would never be delivered. He never allowed the
International Atomic Energy Agency to begin the wide-ranging inspections
required before the critical parts of the plants could be delivered.
By 1997 or 1998, American intelligence has now concluded, he was searching for
an alternative way to build a bomb, without detection. He found part of the
answer in Pakistan, which along with Iran, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Egypt was now
a regular customer for North Korean missile parts, American military officials
said.
A. Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, who had years ago stolen the
engineering plans for gas centrifuges from the Netherlands, visited North Korea
several times. The visits were always cloaked in secrecy.
But several things are now clear. Pakistan was running out of hard currency to
pay the North Koreans, who were in worse shape. North Korea feared that without
a nuclear weapon it would eventually be absorbed by the economic might of the
South, or squeezed by the military might of the United States.
In 1997 or 1998, Kim Jong Il and his generals decided to begin a development
project for a bomb based on highly enriched uranium, a slow and difficult
process, but relatively easy to hide.
Talking, but Not Changing
They did so even while sporadically pursuing a better relationship with
Washington. In the last days of the Clinton administration, the North negotiated
with Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright for a deal to restrict North
Korean missile exports in return for a removal of economic penalties, a
de-listing from the State Department's account of countries that sponsor
terrorism and talks about diplomatic recognition. The deal was never reached.
President Clinton even considered an end-of-term trip to North Korea, but was
talked out of it by aides who feared that the North was not ready to make real
concessions. The nuclear revelations of the past few weeks suggest those aides
saved Mr. Clinton from embarrassment.
"Lamentably, North Korea never really changed," said one senior Western official
here with long experience in the topic. "They came to the conclusion that the
nuclear card was their one ace in the hole, and they couldn't give it up."
American intelligence agencies, meanwhile, suspected that North Korea was
restarting a secret program. In 1998, satellites were focused on a huge
underground site where the C.I.A. believed Kim Jong Il was trying to build a
second plutonium-reprocessing center. But they were looking in the wrong place:
after American officials negotiated access to the suspect site, they found only
a series of man-made caves with no nuclear-related equipment, and no apparent
purpose. "World's largest underground parking lot," one American intelligence
official joked at the time.
Rumors of a secret enriched-uranium project persisted, however. The C.I.A. and
the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee evaluated the evidence but
reached no firm conclusion.
But there were hints. One Western diplomat who visited North Korea in May 1998,
just as world attention focused on Pakistan, which had responded to India's
underground nuclear tests by setting off six of its own, recalled witnessing an
odd celebration. "I was in the Foreign Ministry," the official recalled last
week. "About 10 minutes into our meeting, the North Korean diplomat we were
seeing broke into a big smile and pointed with pride to these tests. They were
all elated.
"Here was a model of a poor state getting away with developing a nuclear
weapon."
When the Clinton administration raised the rumors of a Pakistan-North Korea link
with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who succeeded Ms. Bhutto, he denied them. It
was only after General Musharraf overthrew Mr. Sharif's government, and after
Mr. Bush took office, that South Korean intelligence agencies picked up strong
evidence that North Korea was buying components for an enriched-uranium program.
The agencies passed the evidence along to Washington, according to South Korean
and American officials. It looked suspiciously similar to the gas centrifuge
technology used in Pakistan. "My guess is that Pakistan was the only available
partner," said Lee Hong Koo, a former South Korean prime minister and
unification minister.
A. H. Nayya, a physics professor at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, who
has no role in the country's nuclear program, agreed: "The clearest possibility
is that the Pakistanis gave them the blueprint. `Here it is. You make it on your
own.' "
Under American pressure, Dr. Khan was removed from the operational side of the
Pakistani nuclear program. He was made an "adviser to the president" on nuclear
technology.
Here in Seoul, nuclear experts working for the government of President Kim Dae
Jung say they were subtly discouraged from publicly writing or speculating about
the North's secret programs because the Korean government feared that it would
derail President Kim's legacy: the "sunshine policy" of engagement with North
Korea and encouraging investment there.
By this summer, however, the C.I.A. concluded that the North had moved from
research to production. The intelligence agency took the evidence to Condoleezza
Rice, the president's national security adviser, who asked for a review by all
American intelligence agencies.
Such a request is usually a prescription for conflicting interpretations.
Instead, the agencies came back with a unanimous opinion: the North Korean
program was well under way, and had to be stopped.
Telling the North, 'You're Busted'
After sending senior officials to Japan and South Korea in August to present the
new evidence, Mr. Bush decided to confront the North Koreans. On Oct. 4, James
A. Kelly, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs,
was in North Korea and told his counterparts that the United States had detailed
information about the enriched-uranium program.
"We wanted to make it clear to them that they were busted," a senior
administration official said.
The North Koreans initially denied the accusation, but the next day, after what
they told the American visitors was an all-night discussion, they admitted that
they were pursuing the secret weapons program, several officials said. "We need
nuclear weapons," Kang Sok Joo, the North Korean senior foreign policy official,
said, arguing that the program was a result of the Bush administration's
hostility.
Mr. Kelly responded that the program began at least four years ago, when Mr.
Bush was governor of Texas. The Americans left after one North Korean official
declared that dialogue on the subject was worthless and said, "We will meet
sword with sword."
Since then, the North Koreans have been more circumspect. They have talked
publicly about having the right to a nuclear weapon, even though they have
signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and an agreement with South Korea to
keep the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.
The Bush administration has been uncharacteristically restrained. President Bush
led the push for an oil cutoff, but also issued a statement on Nov. 15 saying
that the United States had no intention of invading North Korea. His aides hoped
that the statement would give Kim Jong Il the kind of security guarantee he had
long demanded - and a face-saving way to end the nuclear program.
Mr. Bush's aides say the way to deal with North Korea, in contrast to their
approach to Iraq, is to exploit its economic vulnerabilities and offer carrots,
essentially the strategy the Clinton administration used. Many here in Seoul
believe it may work this time.
"The North Koreans are a lot more dependent on us, and on the West, than they
were in the 1994 nuclear crisis," said Han Sung Joo, who served as South Korea's
foreign minister then.
But the reality, officials acknowledged, is that Mr. Bush has little choice but
to pursue a diplomatic solution with North Korea.
Kim Jong Il has 11,000 artillery tubes dug in around the demilitarized zone, all
aimed at Seoul. In the opening hours of a war, tens of thousands of people could
die, military officials here say.
"Here's the strategy," one American official said. "Tell the North Koreans,
quite publicly, that they can't get away with it. And say the same thing to
Pakistan, but privately, quietly."
End of story Editor's Note:
1. Can The NYT point to any original evidence that Dr. A.Q. Khan stole plans for gas centrifuges? Almost 17 years ago, your editor researched this very question. His papers are lying around somewhere and he will try and unearth them. There actually was never any evidence for this allegation, but it has been repeated endlessly for near two decades and so has become the truth.
2. Were the Pakistanis really using C-130s to subtly slap the United States? Look at the PAF inventory: if you need to send military cargo to North Korea or bring such cargo back, what else could Pakistan use?
3. Eleven thousand artillery tubes all aimed at Seoul? We thought the distance from Panmanjon to Seoul was 70 km - oh wait, the NYT said tubes. Now it becomes clear. It must be those centrifuge tubes Pakistan has been supplying which North Korea has modified into artillery.
Return To Top November 25, 2002
US troops in Afghanistan kill two armed assailants From Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency
Kabul, Nov 24, IRNA -- US troops in Afghanistan's Paktia Province in
the southeast of Afghanistan killed two armed assailants in the
course of a struggle on Saturday.
The US general claimed that the rockets shot by the assailants
had inflicted no material or personnel losses.
General King said, "the dead bodies of the assailants has been
transferred to US centers responsible for recognition of their
identities."
He refrained from giving any further clues about the identity, or
group to which the dead assailants belonged, but the US troops have
usually been quick to accuse the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces of
launching such attacks.
The United States has between seven to ten thousand troops in
Afghanistan currently that are positioned in southern and eastern
provinces of this country and are engaged in operations aimed at
spotting and arresting the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda
forces.
Also a probe by multinational peacekeepers into an explosion in a
residential district of Kabul concluded the blast was caused by a
small explosive charge, a spokesman said Saturday.
Thursday's blast came just days after police halted an attempt
to blow up the main power station supplying Kabul and hours before
security officials uncovered a plot to assassinate the Afghan
defence minister in the capital.
Kabul continues to be dogged by security problems following last
year's collapse of the former Taliban regime under a US-led military
campaign.
Many of the incidents, including a car bomb which killed 30 people
on September 5, have been blamed on the Taliban, its al-Qaeda terror
network associates or other anti-government forces.
Return To Top November 24, 2002
German anti-ABC tanks could be deployed in likely Iraq war
From Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency
Berlin, Nov 23, IRNA -- A German Defense Ministry official announced
here Saturday that six anti-ABC weapons reconaissance tanks, currently
based in Kuwait, could be called up for military operations in a
likely Iraq war.
"The camp in which the tanks are based, is American. Should it
come under direct (enemy) attack, it's regarded as an assault on an
ally. Our forces will then naturally be deployed," the parliamentary
state secretary of the German Defense Ministry, Hans Georg Wagner,
told the daily Braunschweiger Zeitung.
The reconnaissance tanks and some 52 German soldiers are currently
stationed in Kuwait as part of the international anti-terror mandate
'Operation Enduring Freedom'.
Wagner added that any tank deployment for the Iraq war could be
given a green light by the German Federal Security Council and would
not necessarily require a new parliamentary approval.
He hinted that German troop presence in Kuwait could also be
expanded up to 800 soldiers.
The German official's latest remarks come one day after German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced that the US had submitted a
letter with specific requests, regarding a planned war in Iraq.
Return To Top November 24, 2002
More Weapons Inspectors Arrive
US media reports say that five more UN inspectors have arrived in Iraq, along with several tons of equipment, to raise the total to 43. ABC-TV showed a C-130 in UN colors taxying in at Baghdad, and noted the equipment coming in was considerably more sophisticated that that available four years ago. The inspectors are getting set up, cleaning up their old headquarters, and preparing for inspections. Contrary to US wishes, the inspections will begin on a low key, with the teams seeking to avoid confrontations. CNN quotes UN inspectors as saying Iraq understands it has little wriggle room this time.
Click here for the story.
Return To Top November 24, 2002
New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay; a story by Michael Smith, Defense Correspondent
(Filed: 22/11/2002)
Nato spokesmen say the new "capability" developed for the Nato force would
reinforce the EU as well because many of the units would be "double-hatted"
for both forces. But, in reality, the Nato force will remove the spectre of
the embryonic EU force becoming a Euro army dominated by France.
The Nato "response force" will take all the best fighting troops Europe can
deploy. It, rather than the Euro-army, will carry out any serious mission
that the European nations believe they should mount.
There is no doubt that the French, who persuaded Tony Blair to join them in
the drive to set up the EU force, wanted it to be a rival to Nato, but they
appear to have been outflanked by the Americans.
The creation of the EU force was agreed at the Helsinki summit in December
1999. Its possible roles initially appeared limited. It would deploy to any
trouble spot in Europe, or possibly Africa and the Middle East, to carry out
operations ranging from provision of humanitarian aid, through evacuation of
civilians from a war zone to separation of warring factions.
Britain insisted that it would never be a "war-fighting" force. It was
entirely about peacekeeping and humanitarian aid. The French disagreed.
Privately, British officials said they would veto any such move and let it
be known that they had pushed the force so strongly to persuade the other
European countries to increase their defence capabilities.
To make the force operational by the target date of 2003, the Europeans had
to agree to contribute various capabilities that would allow the force to
deploy 60,000 men to a trouble spot within 60 days.
Britain agreed to offer up to 12,500 troops, 72 combat aircraft and 18 of
its 32 warships. Neither of the last two are seen as feasible options and
the other European countries contributions were similarly over-optimistic.
The Americans welcomed the idea of improved capabilities, without much
optimism that they could be achieved, but said they would never allow the
force to become a rival to Nato.
While their insistence now that Nato set up its own force is driven largely
by the need to force the improvement in capabilities that the British
struggled to achieve even for themselves, they have ensured that the EU
could never rival Nato on the military front.
The Nato force will be able to move much faster than its EU counterpart,
deploying about 20,000 troops within seven to 10 days for missions ranging
from the evacuation of civilians from trouble-spots to waging war. But,
because the troops the Europeans contribute will inevitably be those that
they contribute to the EU force, Nato will take the best first.
That will leave the EU force with what is left and confined to the tasks it
was only ever supposed to carry out - peacekeeping, humanitarian aid and
tidying up after Nato has done its work.
Return To Top November 23, 2002
Britain demands Israel 'fully investigate' killing of UNRWA official in Jenin
Extracts from the Jerusalem Post
Britain is demanding Israel fully investigate the death of a British aid worker killed Friday in a UN compound during a gunbattle between Israeli troops and Palestinian gunmen in the West Bank city of Jenin, media reports said.
Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu earlier said he was sorry for the killing of British UNRWA official Iain Hook, 50, who headed a UN project to rebuild homes in the battle-scarred Jenin refugee camp, earlier Friday, as IDF troops raided the hideout of an Islamic Jihad fugitive in the West Bank refugee camp. Hookis the first UN official to die in over two years of fighting.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said that Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed sorrow over Hook's death, and promised that Israel would fully investigate the incident.
The IDF has earlier said it was not yet clear whether the UN official was killed by Israeli or Palestinian fire, and that the incident was under investigation. The Director of Jenin Hospital, Mohammed Abu Ghali, however, has said the bullets retrieved from the victim's abdomen were of the kind generally used by the IDF.
IDF Spokeswoman said that an ambulance to evacuate Hook was quickly arranged for. The United Nations, however, said in a statement that IDF soldiers refused immediate access for the ambulance and that there appeared to have been a delay in getting Hook out. "It is not known at this time whether the delay resulted in the death," the statement said.
IDF preparing retaliatory strikes against Hamas
Extract from the Jeusalem Post
The IDF is poised to respond to Thursday's suicide bombing in Jerusalem with more pinpoint strikes on Hamas and other terrorist organizations.
Hours after the bus bombing, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon held an emergency session with senior security officials, including Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, to discuss a response. They reportedly agreed to a "wide and extensive operation" that will include sending troops back to Bethlehem the city from which soldiers withdrew on August 19, as part of an attempt by former defense minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer to encourage the Palestinian Authority to crack down on terrorism.
Soon after the attack, security forces entered Dura, south of Hebron, and arrested the uncle and brother of the Hamas terrorist who carried the bus bombing. The bomber was identified as Na'el Abu Hilayel, 22, whose family moved from Dura to El-Khader, near Bethlehem, several months ago.
Defense sources said there had been 151 specific warnings of attacks in the past six weeks, of which 85 had been thwarted by the security forces.
Terrorist organizations succeeded in perpetrating 33 attacks which involved casualties among Israelis. As of Thursday evening, the security forces were dealing with another 50 alerts of terrorist activity.
There was speculation that the IDF might be given the go-ahead to re-enter Bethlehem because it has become a haven for terrorists in the past few months. [Editor: Israeli forces have entered Bethlehem; the US has called for a swift end to the operation.]
It was considered more likely, however, that the current policy of pinpoint strikes on Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank would continue, rather than massive operations that could disrupt any US plans for an assault on Iraq.
In the meantime, IDF troops arrested Salah Keneh in Nablus on Thursday night. Keneh is believed to have planned the November 5 suicide bombing at a mall in Kfar Saba which killed two people, as well as another attack.
Editorial
The article above continues with a list of several terrorist incidents just for the day, November 22. Please note the article speaks of 151 specific warnings of attacks, of which 85 were thwarted, just in six weeks. That means 66, or ten a week, were carried through, and 33, or five a week, resulted in Israeli casualties. There would also have been attacks planned, not detected by the Israelis, and aborted. This in a population about equal to that of the Washington DC metro area.
This is not two snipers as paralyzed the metro area for several days, this is Everyperson Palestinian, aided in many cases by Arab Israelis. This is not a sniper shooting once and running, this is wholesale death being meted out.
The detailed lists of incidents caused by Israeli security operations against the Palestininians - the people killed, injured, arrested, houses destroyed, livelihoods at a standstill because of blockade and embargo, the simple act of shopping for food or going to the hospital rendered impossible, the huge numbers of unemployed, children starving - makes equally dismal reading.
Without affixing blame on either side, it is clear there is a full-scale war underway. Obviously, we have no solution to offer, any more than anyone else. We do suspect, however, that given the terrible price Israel is paying, it just may be a matter of time before it ethnically cleanses vast swaths of territory to ensure its security. Also obviously, the Arab nations will do nothing to help their brethren, and the west, after the ritual condemnations and perhaps even sanctions, will return to business as usual.
We do have one suggestion for the Palestinians. If you have to kill, kill soldiers. Do not kill civilians, women, children, old people. To say they are complicit in the repression of Palestine, that they are guilty, including newborns and infants, is to destroy your own cause. It is to justify the carnage the Israelis regularly unleash on your civilians. It is to turn the west against you. The Indians got the British to leave with remarkably little bloodshed thanks to passive and peaceful resistance.
Yes, the situation is different today. But that also works to your advantage: few things will make a westerner's blood boil as much as video of peaceful demonstrators being attacked by police or soldiers. Nothing turns the west against you as much as video of dead, deliberately targeted Israeli children. You cannot, in a hundred years, get what you want by physical force. Perhaps you should try moral force.
Return To Top November 23, 2002
Israeli army desertions rise An article by Conal Urquhart, writing in the Guardian of November 19, 2002. Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay.
The Israeli Defence Force has been hit by a sharp rise in the number of
desertions among its troops, according to an army report.
Military police are dealing with at least 40% more deserters than last year,
the result of increasing numbers of reservists refusing to perform military
service. One report put the increase as high as 67%.
Since the beginning of the intifada in 2000, the army has been forced to
call up tens of thousands of reservists every month to conduct operations in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
It consists of 186,500 regular troops supplemented by a reserve force of
445,000.
The regular army consists of men and women aged between 18 and 21 doing
national service and career soldiers. The reservists are mainly men aged
between 21 and 45.
A report in the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, quoted military sources saying
that as of last week, military police were dealing with 2,616 deserters
compared with 1,564 last year. It also stated that reservists are now forced
to serve an average of 33 days per year.
A spokesman for the IDF said yesterday that the rate of desertions had
increased massively since the beginning of the intifada. The rate of
desertion in 1999 increased by 7%, by 31% in 2000 and by 40% in 2002. He
added that the latest figures were still being analysed and refused to give
the numbers involved.
Although 208 members of the Israeli security services have been killed in
the intifada, the army believes that the majority of deserters are ignoring
the call up for economic reasons. Wages have fallen by 7%, the economy has
shrunk by 1% and unemployment stands at more than 10%.
Both reservists and conscripts have claimed that they deserted to earn more
money for their families while reservists feared losing their jobs because
of the prolonged absence caused by their military service.
The deserters also include conscientious objectors who refuse to serve in
the Occupied Territories although they are willing to serve within Israel's
international borders.
Return To Top November 22, 2002
Al Qaeda Persian Gulf operations chief Abd Al-Rahim Al-Nashiri is in US custody after being handed over by an undisclosed country last month
DEBKAfile Sources: Hadassah hospital reports Israeli victims of Jerusalem bus bombing Thursday suffered unusually excessive burns in view of brief bus fire. Palestinians terrorist suspected of using new type of explosive or lacing it with new chemical.
Palestinian suicide bombing in early Thursday rush hour left 11 Israelis dead, injured 47 - 8 seriously - on packed Jerusalem Bus No. 20 on Mexico Street in residential neighborhood of Kiryat Menahem
Many blast victims were children traveling to school
In last twelve days, 29 Israelis have been murdered by Palestinian terrorists
Egged Bus service files $120m damages suit against Arafat, Palestinian Authority for buses destroyed in 50 Palestinian terrorist attacks in two years
Asks Tel Aviv court for interim injunction to impound Palestinian deposits in Israeli banks
Bush phones Sharon with condolences, promises to continue working for Middle East peace
Jerusalem bomber identified as Nail Azmi Bin Hilal, 26, from al Khader near Bethlehem. Almost daily terror alerts continue. Scores foiled since last Jerusalem terror attack nearly four months ago
Alleged mastermind of Bali bombings, Afghanistan-trained Imam Samudra, is captured in West Java Thursday
Explosion rips through Lagos airport cargo wing Thursday leaving many casualties
Kuwait policeman shoots and injures two US Marines Thursday, flees to Saudi Arabia
In Lebanese town of Sidon, an American woman missionary is murdered outside her clinic Thursday
NATO Prague summit denies support Bush sought for offensive against Saddam, pledging only "effective action" to help UN disarm Iraq. Western Alliance opens door to seven new ex-communist states, resolves to establish rapid response force
Western warplanes Thursday bomb air defense radar 245 m south of Baghdad, after Wednesday raids of three air defense communications facilities in Iraq - between al Kut 100 m SE of Baghdad and Basrah, 245 m SE of Baghdad.
Israeli police minister Landau reveals preparations for mega-terror attack. He notes 237 deaths this year in 210 terror attacks. Return To Top November 22, 2002
"New Start": Arab News Editorial on New Pakistan Prime Minister
What Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, elected to lead Pakistan as its first civilian prime minister since the 1999 coup, has ahead of him is no easy task. His Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid party is seen by the opposition in Parliament as a puppet administration, which will allow President Pervez Musharraf to continue to exercise ultimate power. Since Musharraf has sought to institutionalize the political role of the armed forces, it seems almost certain that he intends to continue to keep many levers of government in his own hands, even though he hailed the elections as the moment when democratic government returned to Pakistan.
As a pure democracy, Pakistan may look unconvincing, but before the opposition parties set about seeking to undermine Jamali's administration, because they perceive it to be illegitimate and as they would also argue, elected thanks to rigged voting, maybe there is something that they should take on board. It could be argued that Musharraf's constitutional solution amounts to a compromise in a country where, historically, the lack of compromise has time and again led to political chaos. Pakistan's officer corps are professionals, most of whom do not much enjoy their interventions in politics. Unversed in the complexities and subtleties of politics, their solution has been to bang heads together and to try and inject some semblance of discipline into political life.
None of these interventions deserves approval but they should be seen for what they have been - attempts to stop what the military perceived as political rot which was destabilizing the country. Since Musharraf seized power in 1999, the economy has stabilized and begun to perform. The price of this stability was a clampdown on political dissent but many Pakistanis may not have been unhappy at this turn of events.
In its 54 years, Pakistan has failed to find enduring political stability, in part because political parties used the democratic process as a battering ram to suppress opponents and then foster the climate of patronage and corruption that has disfigured public life. The compromise that Musharraf has created could represent an opportunity to short-circuit the bad old ways. If the parties in the opposition choose to follow the classic democratic model, they will use their position constructively to challenge and question the government on its decisions and policies. In so doing they could win the respect and confidence of the electorate, not just in their own performance but in the institution of Parliament itself.
If, however, they choose to go head to head with the administration, denying its legitimacy and using their parliamentary platform to denounce anything and everything it does, the result will be continued instability. Only if all legislators dedicate themselves to creating a workable parliamentary process will the military be presented with an unarguable case that they should withdraw. With an angry India on its eastern border and elements of the Taleban and Al-Qaeda along its western border, Pakistan needs politicians who can act with calm and deliberation. This is a time for statesmanship, not protest. The return to democracy on Musharraf's terms may be hard to accept, but at least it is a start and for those who wish for full democracy in Pakistan, it is currently the only obvious way forward.
Return To Top November 22, 2002
Today's update was sent by Gordon A. MacKinlay
Letter to the Editor: PLAN Warship Purchases From Xinhui
Neither the Slava nor the Akula are confirmed. There is
no intention for PLAN to
buy these. Note that SLAVA class were offered to China during
a visit of Ukraine president, not the other way
around. Again, both Song program
and the 093 program is moving smoothy; two weeks ago,
the 3rd member of the song family entered service.
There are 3 to 4 new DDG building in Shanghai
shipyards, although not all the system can be identified at this point, but they "western" based weapon system,
such as French Creusot-Loire based 100mm main gun, and
Type 730 CIWS similar to Dutch Goalkeeper, those are
confirmed by pictures posted at CDF.
Both Luhu class DDG (112, and 113) upgraded with a new
SSM, most likely to be C-803, and DDG has a new Main
gun.
Older Luda class is being upgraded as well, from
photos, DDG 109, 165, 110, 132 are being upgraded
(some of them already complete) with C-802, and HQ-7
SAM.
This is in addition to the new Jiangwei II class being build.
Return To Top November 21, 2002
Antichemical troops fill a niche for Nato
By Brian Whitmore, Boston Globe, Page A10, 11/20/2002, Extracts
Since returning in September from a six-month tour in Kuwait as part of
Operation Enduring Freedom, the Ninth NBC Anti-Chemical Company has become
the pride of the Czech Republic's armed forces as they transform from a
lumbering communist-era dinosaur into a more nimble modern military.
''Without units like this, the world would be defenseless against chemical
and biological attacks,'' said Gajdos, 40, the commander of the NBC unit
that is based in this town, about 60 miles north of Prague.
The Czech effort to remake its army reflects a parallel process within NATO,
which is struggling to move beyond its Cold War mission of fighting a
conventional land war in Europe to meeting the more complex challenges of
the 21st century. The alliance needs fewer heavy tank brigades and armored
battalions and more mobile, flexible forces and specialized units like
Gajdos's, which Western officials call a model for NATO.
At the NATO summit tomorrow and Friday in Prague, the 19-member alliance
plans to admit as many as seven new members. At the same time, it plans to
establish a 20,000-troop rapid-deployment force. But if NATO is to become
more agile as it expands, officials say, the kind of specialization the
Czechs are undertaking must become the wave of the future.
Since taking office in May 2001, Defense Minister Jaroslav Tvrdik has pushed
to overhaul the armed forces. The government plans to phase out the draft by
2006 and reduce the country's armed forces from 50,000 soldiers, half of
whom are conscripts, to an all-volunteer force of 35,000. It also plans to
reduce the number of civilian employees in the military from 20,000 to
10,000 and close half of the nation's 150 bases.
Return To Top November 21, 2002
When it's suicide to join Russia's armed forces
(Filed: 20/11/2002) The Telegraph.
A teenage sailor who deserted in Russia's Far East more than a year ago has
arrived home with chilling tales of sadism, beatings and suicides.
Alexander Yevdokimov, 18, penniless and on the run, hitchhiked and walked
more than 4,000 miles across Russia to get away from his unit after seeing a
colleague hang himself.
At night he slept by the roadside or in cheap doss-houses. He spent the long
Siberian winter in a deserted logging cabin, selling cedar nuts he gathered
to pay for food. By the time he reached home - a village four hours from
Moscow - his mother was dead and his father had given up hope of seeing his
son alive again.
Bullying in the Russian army has been a problem for decades but since the
fall of communism, low morale and poor pay have made it endemic.
The Union of the Mothers of Russian Soldiers, formed to protest at
conditions in the armed forces, estimates that 3,000 recruits a year kill
themselves. On one day this week alone, a soldier in Russia's Far East
killed a guard and then shot himself and police hunted an armed deserter in
woods near Moscow.
Many mothers pay doctors huge bribes to declare their sons unfit to serve.
The current rate is about £3,500. Universities are crammed with students who
have little interest in their subject but find it is the only way to put off
military service.
Mr Yevdokimov has painted a picture of a regime so brutal that even
volunteers soon deserted or attempted suicide. Those who serve the mandatory
two years without carrying away deep psychological scars are the exception.
He signed up as a naval cadet in the spring of last year. "I could have
legitimately avoided the draft because my mother was an invalid," he said.
"But the navy said they would make me into a real man."
With other recruits he was transported across Russia to Vladivostok in a
train journey that took two weeks. There he was one of 15 recruits who
joined a submarine hunter in Russia's Pacific Fleet. The beatings began the
day the ship left port. The older sailors hit him with fire hoses and the
second-year recruits - "grandfathers" in Russian military parlance - joined
in with boots and fists.
Mr Yevdokimov said: "I had always dreamed of sailing but the reality was a
nightmare. I was beaten every day. They wanted me to serve them, they wanted
to make me a slave."
Within weeks one of Mr Yevdokimov's fellow recruits, a skinny boy from the
central Russian town of Kostroma, hanged himself with a length of rope he
found on deck.
Others wounded themselves to get a few precious days on shore in a military
hospital. Mr Yevdokimov said: "I saw a whole ward full of young soldiers and
sailors who had slashed their wrists." When recruits spoke to officers they
were told they had no right to complain.
Mr Yevdokimov escaped early one morning when the ship was in port. "I didn't
have a penny," he said. "But I had 16 months left and I knew I couldn't face
it. In normal conditions I would have been proud to serve. But the
conditions were not normal."
From Vladivostok he fled to Ussurysk, a few miles away. He said: "I began by
selling cedar nuts that I found in the forest. When I had collected a few
hundred roubles I would hitchhike with the lorries and then try to find
work."
In this way he travelled along the southern perimeter of Russia, past China,
Mongolia and Central Asia.
When summer came Mr Yevdokimov travelled the length of Siberia through
Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk and Novosibirsk to European Russia.
Back at home, he realised he would have to turn himself in. Without identity
documents he had no chance of getting a job or evading the police.
Last week the local military prosecutor ruled that he must return to serve
the 16 remaining months.
Return To Top November 21, 2002
Ready and Willing, but Are They Able?
By Robin Wright, Times Staff Writer, November 20 2002. Extracts.
SULAYMANIYAH, Iraq -- At an abandoned Iraqi army base beneath the voluptuous
brown mountains of Kurdistan, the rhythmic sounds of thudding boots and
military chants echo through the morning air. The only armed force in Iraq
not under Saddam Hussein's control is running daily drills.
After decades of fighting, the legendary peshmerga, or "those who face
death," are gearing up for what many here hope will be their last big
battle: ousting a regime that has victimized the Kurdish people perhaps more
than any other group in Iraq.
Many eagerly await American troops in hopes that, together, the world's most
powerful military and Iraq's most experienced opposition force can finish
the job the guerrillas started in the 1970s.
But the big question here is what role the peshmerga will play -- and
whether the rugged Kurdish force will get to participate at all.
Kurdistan, the northern Iraqi enclave that borders Turkey, is only one of
the routes the U.S. military might use if it ends up launching a land
invasion against Hussein's regime. Many of the roughly 50,000 Kurdish
fighters, with another 50,000 part-time volunteers, yearn to play the same
role in Iraq that the Northern Alliance played alongside U.S. troops in
ending the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan.
However, both U.S. and Kurdish officials concede the situation isn't quite
as straightforward as it might seem. From explosive regional political
issues to the practical realities of military cooperation, using the Kurdish
fighters is fraught with problems.
Although the Kurds have been gradually retraining their guerrilla force to
form a conventional army, they still don't have enough bullets for the
sniper team to practice.
The squads learn the principles of operating their dated Russian rifles
outfitted with scopes. They practice subterfuge, hiding for hours wrapped
head-to-toe in camouflage in the mountain flora. And they take aim.
But they don't shoot.
The Kurds have limited firepower and no air force. Most of their vintage
equipment has been captured in encounters with Iraqi troops, bought on the
black market or even cajoled for a price off poor, bored or sympathetic
Iraqi sentries at the demarcation posts between Kurdistan and the rest of
the country.
"The peshmerga do have a competent and credible infantry force and they can
defend in the right terrain. But to ask them to operate in areas outside
Kurdistan is well beyond their capabilities," said a senior Bush
administration official.
To upgrade the Kurds' capabilities, they would need, at least, ammunition,
communications equipment and logistical supplies, said Gen. Simko Dizayee,
head of the peshmerga general staff, who still wears the Kurds' traditional
baggy pants as part of his uniform.
Yet providing Kurdish troops with anything more than the aged artillery,
rockets and mortars they have could unleash a regional backlash -- and
potentially even intervention from other countries. Turkey, which may prove
to be the most pivotal partner for any U.S.-led attack on Iraq, deeply fears
the postwar existence of a well-equipped Kurdish force and the potential
spill over to its own restive Kurds.
Kurds, a non-Arab people estimated to number between 25 million and 30
million, are the world's largest ethnic group without a state. They span
Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria, and the dream of many Kurds is creation of a
formal homeland -- as they were promised after the Ottoman Empire collapsed
eight decades ago. In the meantime, they hope to begin by liberating Kirkuk,
the oil-rich center of Kurdish culture.
Turkey is sufficiently alarmed at the prospect of both a well-armed Kurdish
army and the Kurds' capture of Kirkuk, home also to thousands of ethnic
Turkomans, that it has hinted that it might intervene to block both
developments. The danger of a military operation in Iraq becoming a regional
war has led the Pentagon to make plans for U.S. troops to take and hold
Kirkuk early in any campaign. Then the Kurds would simply defend the turf
they now hold.
Return To Top November 21, 2002
Fourth Afghan battalion graduates
Sgt. Don Dees, [US] Army News Service, November 15, 2002.
KABUL, Afghanistan. More than 400 Afghan
soldiers graduated Nov. 13 after 10 weeks of basic infantry training
conducted by French soldiers at the site of the former Afghan Military
Academy in Kabul.
U.S. forces oversee the training, which has produced nearly 1,400 Afghan
soldiers since May, according to records at the center. More than 530
soldiers are currently in training under U.S. soldiers from 5th Battalion,
19th Special Forces Group, Fort Carson, Colo. Almost 270 more are waiting
for their training to begin with French soldiers.
During the graduation ceremony, Afghan troops' Defense Ministry's Chief of
Staff, Gen. Assef Delawar, said that a national army is crucial to the
transitional government under President Hamid Karzai's direction.
"Today, I see you in uniform and well trained with the help of our
international friends," Delawar said.
American and French forces provide the training. Medical personnel from the
Republic of Korea assist with medical care for Afghan trainees at the
center. Nearly 30 nations have contributed weapons, clothing, field gear,
vehicles, and equipment to assist in the training effort.
Return To Top November 21, 2002
Britain prepares 30,000 troops to answer US call for coalition force
From Michael Evans, Times London, Extracts.
THE three Armed Forces can officially start gearing up for war after the
United States formally asked for a British contribution to a "coalition of
the willing" to fight Iraq.
Detailed plans have been drawn up but ministers have yet to decide which to
select. The options range from a limited contribution involving special
forces and other specialist capabilities such as Tomahawk cruise
missile-armed submarines and RAF air-to-air refuelling tankers, to a
full-scale land force.
The Government is expected to go for a substantial ground force of up to
15,000 troops, as well as a carrier battle group, a Royal Marine commando,
deployed on HMS Ocean, the helicopter carrier, and RAF Tornado GR4 bombers.
While numbers have not been fixed, the total package could amount to between
20,000 and 30,000 personnel.
Intensive training is already going on in Germany, where the main elements
of the proposed ground force are based. The units are all from 7th Armoured
Brigade, known as the Desert Rats, and 4th Armoured Brigade, part of 1st
(UK) Armoured Division.
The
ground force envisaged is described as an "enhanced armoured brigade" - one
full brigade, the 7th, reinforced with elements from another, the 4th.
Regiments now preparing for war include the 1st Battalion The Black Watch,
The Royal Scots Dragoon Guards, 1st Battalion The Royal Regiment of
Fusiliers, 1st Battalion Irish Guards, 3rd Regiment Royal Horse Artillery,
26 Regiment Royal Artillery and 12 Regiment Royal Artillery.
Elements of 5 Regiment Royal Artillery and 32 Regiment Royal Artillery are
also engaged in warfighting training in Germany, and a substantial number of
signals, logistics and transport units have also been earmarked for Iraq.
Return To Top November 21, 2002
Tensions High As Inspectors Return Tensions High As Inspectors Return Extracts from a CBS News article. Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix and his charges returned to Baghdad Monday to begin organizing their search for the weapons of mass destruction Saddam Hussein says he doesn't have, but which the United States and others insist he does. The inspectors arrived in the Iraqi capital as allied warplanes bombed Iraqi air defenses in the northern no-fly zone after the U.S. military said the jets were fired on during routine patrols. Iraq considers such patrols a violation of its sovereignty and frequently shoots at them. At the White House, spokesman Scott McClellan said Monday the Iraqi anti-aircraft fire "appears to be a violation" of the U.N. resolution that sent the inspectors back to Iraq.It was unclear, however, whether other countries on the Security Council would consider incidents in the no fly zone serious enough to merit a response since those patrols were never explicitly authorized by the council. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, traveling in Chile, said the United States is waiting for a pattern of Iraqi misdeeds before going back to the council. [Editor: The UN Scretary General has says he does not believe the Iraqi incidents to be a violation of UN resolutions.] The return of the inspectors is widely seen as Saddam's last chance to avoid a devastating war with the United States. President Bush has warned Saddam that failure to cooperate with the inspectors will bring on an American attack and that Washington will pursue a policy of "zero tolerance" toward Iraqi infractions. U.S. officials say they will make available to the U.N. weapons inspectors one of this country's oldest spy planes, the U-2, and one of its newest, the Predator unmanned surveillance drone, reports CBS News National Security Correspondent David Martin. The U-2, which flies at 70,000 feet, can take pictures of large areas, watching for signs Iraq is moving equipment and weapons. The Predator flies at 15,000 feet and could be used to keep watch over a particular building. Both could send their pictures straight to the inspectors in Baghdad.
Return To Top November 20, 2002
US Aims To Regain Supercomputer Lead
An Associated Press Story, Extracts.
In a computing power struggle tinged with national pride, IBM Corp. says it hopes to regain the title for world's fastest supercomputer from Japan's NEC Corp. in 2004 when Big Blue delivers a machine that will model nuclear weapons for the U.S. government.
Japan's NEC jolted the computer world in April when its Earth Simulator, which knits together 5,000 processors to attain a theoretical speed of 40 trillion calculations per second, became the first machine built outside the United States to top the supercomputer speed list.
The Yokohama, Japan-based Earth Simulator not only took the lead, but did so by trouncing the then-fastest machine, IBM's ASCI White, by running almost five times as fast.
At the SuperComputing 2002 conference in Baltimore on Tuesday, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham was to announce a $290 million contract with IBM to build two new supercomputers, one of which, dubbed ASCI Purple, is expected to clock in at 100 teraflops, or trillions of calculations per second.
Like so many of America's fastest computers, ASCI Purple will be used to simulate the explosions and decay of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile without resorting to test detonations of the warheads.
In 2005, IBM plans to deliver a second supercomputer to the Department of Energy, dubbed Blue Gene/Lite, which will run 130,000 processors at a theoretical top speed of 360 teraflops - more than triple the speed of ASCI Purple.
Both of the mega-machines will reside at the DOE's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California.
All but a few of today's top supercomputers use a parallel processing system that interconnects thousands of mass-produced microprocessors.
The biggest exception is NEC's Earth Simulator, which uses a "vector parallel" construction of linked processors, an older method that handles computations one at a time.
Whether IBM's ASCI Purple becomes the first machine to knock NEC's Earth Simulator off the block remains to be seen.
Other companies are working toward the same goal, including Hewlett-Packard Co. - builder of the current No. 2 and 3 machines - Cray Inc., which is designing a pair of alternate systems for the Department of Energy, and NEC itself, analysts said.
About 90 percent of the top 500 supercomputers are U.S.-made, according to the Top 500 list, compiled by researchers at University of Mannheim, Germany; the Department of Energy's National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center in Berkeley, California. and the University of Tennessee.
Return To Top November 20, 2002
THE MUAV: SIX INCHES LONG AND DEADLY
Thomas Withington wrote this article, extracts are from Globalsecurity.org.
The American and British military now have something much smaller [than a Predator UAV] in mind. Most six-inch-long aircraft tend to arrive in small boxes and are glued together by model aeroplane enthusiasts. The military have found an application for a plane smaller than the average Airfix kit.
Micro Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (Muavs) are designed to be used by the individual soldier to conduct reconnaissance and surveillance or to detect chemical or biological weapons. In order to qualify as a Muav, the US Defence Airborne Reconnaissance Office (a key organisation in Muav development) insists that the aircraft must be less than six inches in length, height and wing-span. They must carry a "miniaturised payload", a tiny version of reconnaissance cameras, sensors or other military equipment; they must be simple to operate and they must carry a communications link for the transmission of information.
They are designed to be used by a soldier in the field who can conduct reconnaissance simply by unpacking a Muav from his kit, throwing it into the air by hand, then flying it by remote control over the surrounding area, while watching the television pictures that the Muav sends back to see if the enemy is nearby.
This may sound like science fiction; it is fast becoming science fact. The smallest military air vehicle to be developed is the Sender, an uninhabited aerial vehicle (Uav) with a wingspan of four feet and a weight of 4.5 kilograms. It is operated by the US Naval Research Laboratory, and despite its small size, it boasts a range of almost 100 miles.
It may soon be used as a reconnaissance aircraft for US warships and it can be configured to undertake several different missions, from directing anti-ship missiles to searching for hostile vessels.
It is not just the United States which is leading the Muav field. BAE Systems, in conjunction with Lockheed Martin, is developing Microstar, which weighs under one-third of a kilogram and can fly at altitudes of up to 300ft. A small electric propeller motor can generate speeds over 30mph. It will be able to stay aloft for over 20 minutes. Microstar will carry miniature TV cameras, communications relays or chemical/biological weapons sensors.
According to BAE Systems, Microstar is designed for individual soldiers to operate. All they will need to do is "unhook it from their web belt, create a flight plan using a digital map, hit the load button and hand launch" - almost as easy as throwing a paper aeroplane, a BAE Systems' executive explains.
Information collected by the Muav's TV cameras and sensors is then relayed back to the soldier in "real time". The soldier can then fly the aircraft back and repack it for use on another occasion.
According to defence expert John Pike, from the Washington DC-based think-tank globalsecurity.org, the greatest use of a Muav will be in urban areas. "The most obvious opportunity would be military operations in urbanised terrain. They might be useful for seeing what is around the next corner or on top of the roof," he says.
MUAVs could also be flown into buildings, providing invaluable intelligence for elite special forces in situations like the recent Moscow theatre siege.
It is not just the military that will benefit; there could be several important civilian spin-offs. BAE Systems believes that Microstar will have significant commercial applications, including traffic monitoring and border surveillance.
A Muav with cameras and sophisticated sensors could be ideal for detecting trapped people in burning buildings.
But how distant is the technology? It is closer than we think. Microstar took a test-flight in 2000, and according to Pike, we could see Muavs in service possibly by the end of the decade.
Return To Top November 20, 2002
Navies Overseas: China Buys Russian Vessels To Mount Naval Challenge To U.S.
An article by David Isenberg, extracts of a story from Globalsecurity.org.
The Taipei-based United Daily News said the People's Liberation Army plans to order Russian Akula nuclear submarines, as China's own efforts to develop new nuclear submarines is stalled by technical difficulties.
It said the Chinese navy (PLAN) also plans to buy two Slava-class cruisers armed with 16 P-500 anti-ship missiles, which, with a range of 550 kilometers (330 miles), could threaten U.S. battle carrier groups.
This year alone, China has ordered two new Project 956EM Sovremenny destroyers for $1.4 billion, eight Kilo submarines for $1.5 billion and two S-300F naval air defense systems for $200 million, according to media reports. The basis for this modernization dates back to the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, which raised military tension to a high level during a series of missile tests by the People's Republic of China.
.
Over the last decade, the Chinese navy has streamlined and modernized its forces by eliminating large numbers of older ships and replacing them with fewer, more modern units. Force modernization has emphasized the addition of new, indigenously built destroyers, frigates, supply ships, landing ships, and other smaller vessels.
In many respects, the Chinese navy is significantly inferior to U.S. navalforces. GlobalSecurity.org notes that it continues to have longstanding concerns about its capability to engage enemy aircraft, cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions.
This problem is becoming more significant as the navy strives to operate away from the protection of land-based air defenses. Chinese surface combatants have a limited, and primarily self-defense, anti-air warfare (AAW) capability. Only about twelve of its destroyers and frigates are outfitted with surface-to-air systems; the others are armed only with anti-aircraft artillery and possibly man-portable air defense systems.
In addition, Chinese warships lack the modern air surveillance systems and data links required for area air defense missions. The combination of short-range weapons and lack of modern surveillance systems limits the Chinese navy to self-defense and point-defense anti-air warfare only.
Consequently, except in unusual circumstances, no Chinese ship is capable of conducting air defense of another ship. Additionally, the Chinese could not reliably defend against either current or projected anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM).
Earlier this year, China ordered eight Kilo 636 submarines armed with Club-K surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs) from Russia. It is planned that the submarines will be delivered to China within five years. Because of this, Russia is planning to produce these submarines simultaneously in different shipyards.
Yet, these acquisitions may be less worrisome than many think.
Russia does not think its sales significantly change the military balance. In August, in an interview with Moscow Vremya Novostey, military analyst Chzhan Ikhun said, "But it's all relative: Russia sells weapons that are second-rate, by Western standards, to China, but by the standards of Taiwan, Japan, and Eastern Asia, they're first-rate. For example, Russia agreed to equip the new lot of Kilo submarines with up-to-date Klub-S anti-ship missiles with a range of 220 kilometers. In the sustainer phase, these missiles are subsonic, but shift to supersonic at approach to target. Japan and Taiwan are alarmed, but the U.S. is indifferent. Their Air Force and Navy simply wouldn't allow the Chinese submarines to approach their main naval forces within launch range of the Klub-S."
Nor are the Russians the only ones who think this sale is much ado about nothing.
Piers Wood, for example, is a Washington-based defense analyst, and co-author of an article in the Autumn 2001 Naval War College Review on how China might invade Taiwan. Reached by e-mail he wrote:
"Our analysis indicated that the [Chinese navy, or PLAN] surface fleet's capabilities were not as crucial to the success of a cross-straits invasion as air superiority and sea denial operations by PLAN submarines.
The PLAN's submarines operating with the inherent advantage of diesel/battery silence [operationally advantageous only in close-in "home waters"] present U.S. CVBG's [as currently configured] with a worrisome set of problems, full of nasty little decisions between unsatisfactory alternatives. If a U.S. fleet had to go up against a PRC force that had rapidly achieved air superiority over the Straits before the U.S. intervened, it would be even worse for them.
"It's hard to imagine [U.S. aircraft carriers] sailing into the [Taiwan] Straits under such conditions, and there are substantial disadvantages to operating at long stand-off ranges. Both of these contingencies are plausible, and even a great increase in quality/quantity of PLAN destroyers/frigates/ etc. would not seem to alter that basic equation very much.
PLAN surface fleet ships would be sitting ducks-even in port-for U.S. naval air wings [that] had any kind of air superiority or parity. Moreover, the capabilities and size of the U.S. attack-submarine fleet would dramatically shorten the life expectancy of any PLAN surface vessels [that] left the shallows of the Chinese coast-regardless of the balance in an air war. Actually, I have no idea what the PLAN hopes to gain by upgrading their surface fleet-at such great cost. It seems they are shooting themselves in the foot by forgoing wiser expenditures on much, much more useful weapons platforms like diesel/battery submarines and high performance ground attack aircraft. Perhaps the R.O.C. and their U.S. allies ought to encourage this foolhardy PLA investments in Chinese weapons that might look impressive, but have marginal utility in a cross-straits offensive operation."
Indeed, even U.S. governmental analysts are not overly alarmed by China's buildup. The Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, released this past summer, noted that despite major strides in improving its armed forces, China would still have trouble invading Taiwan.
In discussing the success of an invasion scenario, it stated, "Beijing would have to possess the capability to conduct a multi-faceted campaign, maritime area denial operations, air superiority operations and conventional missile strikes. The PLA [People's Liberation Army] likely would encounter great difficulty conducting such a sophisticated campaign throughout the remainder of the decade."
China, of course, is not the only state in the area modernizing its forces. Over the years since Aug. 2, 1992, when the United States decided to sell 150 F-16 jet fighters to Taiwan, the United States has sold several billion dollars' worth of weaponry to Taiwan.
In terms of naval systems that includes 18 S-70 anti-submarine helicopters, 10 S-70CM anti-submarine helicopters, four MSOs (minesweepers, ocean); six Knox-class escorts and two Newport-class landing ships, which Taiwan leased from the United States, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and MK-46 anti-submarine torpedoes
Return To Top November 20, 2002
US tells Damascus to close Islamic Jihad offices US tells Damascus to close Islamic Jihad offices
Excerpts from an article by Herb Keinon writing in the Jerusalem Post
The US has approached Syria "at the highest levels" to close down the headquarters of Islamic Jihad in Damascus, US officials said Monday.
Since Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for Friday night's ambush in Hebron that left 12 security personnel dead, the Prime Minister's Office and the Foreign Ministry have taken the diplomatic offensive, calling on countries to pressure Damascus to close the group's offices.
…the Syrians replied that the offices in question are not terrorist headquarters, but information offices, and asked the US to provide them with proof to the contrary.
The recent messages to Syria came amid reports that the IDF General Staff and the Intelligence Corps were asked to give their opinions about possible Syrian responses to an Israeli attack on terrorist organizations headquartered in Damascus.
Officials in the Prime Minister's Office said that Syria, with Iranian support, also continues to finance and supply Hizbullah in southern Lebanon, where Hizbullah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are believed to be in possession of some 10,000 Katyushas and other missiles.
Return To Top November 19, 2002
Israeli Airports Authority denies security flaw
Extract from a story by Debka: please click for full text.
Less than 24 hours after Tawfiq Fukra attempted to hijack El Al Tel Aviv-Istanbul Flight 581 in midair with the help of a penknife, Israel's airport authority gave itself a clean bill of health. The initial probe had established, said the authority's spokesman, that the 23-year old Israeli Arab from the Galilee village of Baina Najidat, west of Tiberias, had been screened by security officers according to the strictest criteria. Therefore, no faults could be attributed to pre-flight security procedures.
The Authority's Deputy CEO, Pinni Schiff, admitted he could not say how the would-be hijacker had spirited a penknife aboard the flight. He said an answer was to be expected from the Turkish security interrogation of Fukra, who was taken into custody at Ataturk international airport when the threatened El Al flight landed Sunday night, with 170 safe but very frightened passengers and crew.
DEBKAfile's security experts find a major security flaw in the speed with which the airports...
Return To Top November 19, 2002
Another Attempt for Pakistan Coalition Fails
This story is from the Jang but may have originated from the AFP.
MMA-PML-QA talks collapse
ISLAMABAD: The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA, the new Pakistani religious party - Editor) declared on Monday failure in talks to broker a coalition with the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam (PML-QA) after President Pervez Musharraf refused their demand to quit the Army.
The MMA said intensive week-long talks with the PML-QA, the chief pro-Musharraf party and the largest in parliament, had proven fruitless, on the eve of elections for a parliamentary speaker. "The MMA has tried its best through PML-QA to hold discussions with the government to create a formula under which they can restore the Constitution in its original form," the MMA alliance announced in a statement.
The "formula" involved the reversal of key constitutional amendments which give Musharraf and the military power over parliament, and "General Pervez Musharraf's readiness to give up his responsibilities as army chief of staff." The MMA had repeatedly demanded Musharraf quit his post as Army chief, which he has held since 1998, saying it would only support him as a civilian president.
"But these efforts were not successful and there has been no positive result," the MMA said in a statement. Consequently the Islamists were sticking to their own candidate for prime minister, to be elected in the days following Tuesday's Speaker elections. They have nominated Maulana Fazlur Rehman, whose party led violent protests in support of the Taliban during the US-led bombardment of Afghanistan late last year.
The dashing of PML-QA's hopes to bring on board the MMA, whom they had dubbed their "natural allies," sets the stage for a tight race for the premiership between anti-Musharraf and pro-Musharraf parties.
Only a few seats separate the two blocs in hung parliament, and without the MMA the pro-Musharraf parties must count on dissenting MPs from opposition parties to get the numbers to lead the government.
The pro-regime parties received a boost late Monday when Muttahida Qaumi Movement, which holds 17 seats in parliament, said it would support the PML-QA in voting for Speaker and Deputy Speaker nominations.
Elections for the powerful speaker's slot are being seen as a litmus test for prime ministerial elections later. No date has been set yet for the assembly's election of a prime minister. It normally follows the Speaker's election by one to three days.
Return To Top November 19, 2002
Two Warnings: Saddam's Forces No Pushover Two Warnings: Saddam's Forces No Pushover
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, from the Guardian of November 16, 2002.
Iraqi army is tougher than US believes
With just two days to go before the UN weapons inspectors arrive in Baghdad,
George Bush's administration is still beating the war drum. On Thursday
night, Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, confidently predicted that,
should a war erupt, the Iraqi army would soon surrender in the face of
overwhelming US force. He noted that in the first Gulf war, when allied
forces pushed Iraq out of Kuwait, ground combat had lasted only 100 hours.
"I can't say if the use of force would last five days or five weeks or five
months, but it certainly isn't going to last any longer than that," he said.
"It won't be a world war three."
You have always got to hope for minimum loss of life in any war, but Mr
Rumsfeld's prognosis about the speed of an Iraqi army collapse is
ideologically driven and strategically ill-informed.
In the event of an invasion, US forces will face an army that has been
thoroughly indoctrinated, with party commissars in every unit. In addition,
a ruthless system of surveillance and constant purges mean that the officer
corps has had to renounce political activity to survive. To quote President
Saddam Hussein: "With our party methods, there is no chance for anyone who
disagrees with us jumping into a couple of tanks and overthrowing the
government. These methods have gone."
It is true that Iraqi resistance in the 1991 Gulf war was negligible. The
troops that surrendered in their thousands to coalition forces were badly
trained, poorly led and had often not been fed for days. The war was a
one-sided affair, with the Iraqis overwhelmed by superior weapons,
technology and air power.
However, it is often forgotten that the Iraqi leadership made no serious
attempt to defend Kuwait City. The fortifications were half-hearted and
badly planned. They were primarily designed for propaganda, to convince
coalition forces that military liberation would be too costly. Despite the
portrayal of a heroic resistance in the "mother of all battles", once the
ground war began, President Saddam quickly withdrew most of the republican
guard, redeploying them around Baghdad to guard his regime. Substandard and
ill-prepared troops were left to face certain defeat.
After the Gulf war defeat, the Iraqi army was cut to less than half its
original size. The idea was to create a smaller, more disciplined force,
ideologically committed to defending the regime. For more than a decade
Washington has looked to this army for regime change. Today, the US
government still hopes a coup triggered by an invasion will save American
troops the high cost of fighting through Baghdad's streets to reach the
presidential palace.
Like Washington, President Saddam is also aware of the dangers the Iraqi
armed forces pose to his continued rule. To counter this he has staffed the
upper ranks with individuals tied to him by bonds of tribal loyalty or
personal history. Like him, most officers are Sunni Arabs, the country's
traditional ruling class. They are outnumbered by Shia Muslims and well
aware of the resentment towards them.
In addition, members of President Saddam's tribe, the Albu-Nasir, and those
hailing from his hometown, Tikrit, dominate the army and security services'
command, benefiting from regime patronage and enforcing his rule. They are
also more than aware of the anger that will be directed at them if he goes.
Because of this, those hoping for a coup may be disappointed. The regime has
created a "coalition of guilt" that underpins its continued rule with
corruption and great fear about what will happen when it is finally toppled.
Sanctions
In contrast to 1991, the battle this time will be not for a foreign land but
for the very survival of a regime many have spent their lives serving. An
invading US army will face 375,000 Iraqi troops and 2,200 tanks.
Analysts are right to point out that the army as a whole has suffered
greatly during more than a decade of sanctions. Beyond elite regiments,
equipment is old and badly maintained. Estimates suggest that the army is
only 50% combat effective, and regular troops may well behave as they did in
1991, fleeing the battlefield once war begins. On the other hand, President
Saddam has surrounded himself with a robust security system spreading out in
three concentric rings. The security services become more disciplined,
motivated and reliable the closer they are to the president.
The republican guard makes up the first ring of the regime's security.
Stationed on the three main roads to Baghdad, this parallel military force
totals between 50,000 and 70,000 men.
They are better paid than ordinary soldiers and much more likely to remain
loyal. Many stood by their posts during the Gulf war, losing a third of
their tanks. In the aftermath, they played the lead role in suppressing Shia
and Kurdish revolts in the north and south of the country.
The next ring of security is the special republican guard, formed in the
1980s when the republican guard became too large to be totally trusted.
Consisting of 26,000 men, they are the only troops stationed in Baghdad. The
loyalty of this force's officers is beyond doubt. About 80% of them come
from the same region as President Saddam, and they have been used as the
regime's main tool for policing Iraq.
Finally, surrounding President Saddam and the 50 or so people who rule Iraq
are a myriad of competing security organisations. Each one is charged with
overseeing the others, and they are headed by a small group of individuals
who are keenly aware that their continued health and prosperity is dependent
upon the rule of their boss. They too would fight to the last to defend him.
One of the main problems during the Iran-Iraq war was the army's inability
to act on its own initiative. To counter this, Baghdad has reportedly
decentralised its army command and control down to the lowest level
possible. Responsibility for each urban centre, from Basra in the south to
Mosul in the north, has been delegated to a trusted high-ranking soldier.
Each town has been garrisoned with troops, and stockpiles of weapons and
food have been built up.
Should hostilities start, martial law would be declared and troops brought
on to the streets. The ministry of information has developed a highly
efficient press handling system. Once bombing begins, with its inevitable
civilian casualties, the hope is that international press coverage will put
pressure on Washington to stop the war prematurely, as it did in 1991.
Baghdad will be key. It is within this sprawling city of five million that
US troops will have to hunt down the Iraqi dictator and his close
associates. With this in mind, all troops and security services loyal to the
government will in the last instance be massed in and around the capital.
Caught between a potentially hostile Iraqi population bent on revenge and an
invading army committed to regime change, those fighting alongside President
Saddam will have little choice but to remain loyal to the end. The result
could be the worst-case scenario for US military planners: an organised,
committed and disciplined force with nowhere to go, defending a highly
populated urban area. In front of the world's media, US troops would have
the unenviable task of distinguishing these forces from the wider, innocent,
civilian population.
If Mr Bush orders US troops to invade Iraq to topple the regime, it will not
only be the most important and risky decision of his presidency, but a
momentous event in world politics. The only thing certain about it is that
it will not be as simple as Mr Rumsfeld says.
[Dr Toby Dodge is an Iraq expert at Warwick University and an associate
fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs.]
Hussein Defenders Seen As Hard Corps Loyalists
An article by Verno Loeb in the Washington Post of November 17 makes much the same point. It gives Iraq's forces, arranged in rings, as:
The articles quotes US military sources on background as saying that while the regular Iraqi Army may not be much of a match for the US, the morale and fighting capability of the Republican Guard remains high and must be respected. It further details, with quotes from Scott Ritter, the former UN arms inspector, how Mr. Hussein's inner circle is fundamentally different from that of Mr. Slobodan Milosevic's. The latter was a crony group bent on usurping money and power. The former, however, is based on a network of tribal alliances with oaths sworn in blood, and enforced with the most brutal reprisals taken against individuals, families, and communities in case Mr. Hussien suspects betrayal. Mr. Ritter believes the 20,000 troops in the two innermost circles will fight to the death to protect Mr. Hussein.
Editor: Two obvious points
With every respect to Prof. Dodge and Mr. Ritter, we need to note that Secretary of Rumsfeld has not predicted a short war. He is a cheerleader for war, and what he says for the public is quite different from what he says in private. He has said he doesn't know if a war will last five days, five weeks, or five months, but he doesn't expect it to last more than five months. The upper figure gives no indication he feels the war will be short or easy. Now three points. The last time the US Army and the Republican Guard met, the Guard went down to a very rapid defeat, with single US tank brigades sequentially chewing up entire Guard divisions. It was not the Guard was bad, it was simply the Americans were an order of magnitude - at least - better. Now the gap between the antagonists has widened.
The real threat then becomes the two inner circles of 20,000 troops. Whether they really fight to the death or decide to settle old scores with Mr. Hussein's inner circle is, honestly, a matter of conjecture. No responsible war planner will avoid war just because these 20,000 may not easily surrender.
Dr. Dodge mentions that Iraq hopes images of civilian casualties will cause the world community to pressure the US to cease and desist. In the first US-Iraq, so many civilians were killed - according to one estimate 100,000 - that the US has never even officially released its own estimate, saying merely it doesn't measure these things. Where was the international outrage? The US controlled the non-Iraqi media, it will do so again, it will jam and discredit the Iraqi media, and that is all there will be to international outrage - nothing. And if anyone thinks international outrage will stop the Americans from doing what they think is right - well, they dont understand the American government or the public.
Return To Top November 18, 2002
News Update Report: Saddam Makes Deal With Libya
The Times of London says that Libya has agreed to give shelter to the extended family of President Saddam Hussain and 12 senior officials. In return, Libya will receive $3.5 billion. There is no commitment on asylum for Mr, Hussain or his two sons.
Still No Prime Minister in Pakistan
The Jang of Pakistan reports that President Musharraf of Pakistan was sworn in as president after the newly elected National Assembly met, but there is still no agreement on who the next Prime Minister of Pakistan is to be. The religious parties are not helping their case with President Musharraf by insisting he accept many restrictions on his power, such as resigning from the Army. Meanwhile, a splinter group of ten MPs from Mrs. Bhutto's party have split away and agreed to support the party that President Musharraf wants to come to power. More than a month has passed since elections on October 10.
India Again Rejects Route Of Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline
India continues to oppose the route of an Iranian gas pipeline between Iran and India because it will pass through Pakistan's territorial waters. The pipeline, to be built by Russia's Gazprom, was originally conceived of as an overland project; latest revisions, still unacceptable to India, call for it to be submerged to a depth of 2 km off the Pakistan coast for security reasons. India says that the route presupposes a degree of cooperation between India and Pakistan that cannot be justified by the present state of relations, and that India does not want to be held hostage by Pakistan stopping the flow of natural gas to India from Iran. The route has been accepted by Iran and Pakistan, and India in 2000 signed agreements with Russia for purchase of the natural gas.
President Chavez of Venezuela Federalizes Caracas Police
The Associated Press reports that President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has ordered a federal takeover of the Caracas police. There has been a six-week standoff between the police, supported by the opposition, and the President and his supporters: The President's supporters say the police stopped demonstrations by their people while allowing opposition demonstrators. The President ordered the police chief to leave office, but he has refused to do so.
Pakistan Newspaper Reports ISI Brokering Hekmatyar-ISI Alliance
The Jang of Pakistan reports that a former Taliban official says the Pakistan ISI is brokering an alliance between the Taliban and the renegade governor of Heart, Mr. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Mr. Hekmatyar is in hiding: he opposed the United States and the new Kabul government after the fall of the Taliban and is now a wanted man. Meanwhile, anti-US forces in Afghanistan told the Jang that 150 men had attacked two US bases in Paktika Province, suffering two wounded and inflicting many casualties on American troops. US news report say the US used air strikes to suppress positions from which the attacks were launched and report no US casualties.
Israelis Report 13 Killed in Hebron Ambush; Israeli Troops Occupy Hebron
The Jerusalem Post reports that 13 Israeli soldiers and police were killed in the recent ambush by three gunmen in Hebron, who were also killed. Israeli losses included a colonel, the highest-ranking officer killed since this intifada began two years ago. Israeli troops have taken over Hebron. They demolished the houses which the gunmen used, and are arresting many people. Other measures, yet undisclosed, are planned. The Palestinian Authority has so far not condemned the attack.
Return To Top November 17, 2002
US, Iran Move To Cooperate Over Iraq War US, Iran Move To Cooperate Over Iraq War
USA Today reports from Washington that "Despite a campaign of mutual vilification, the Bush administration and Iran are moving toward quiet cooperation in any war against Iraq."
Extracts from the story follow.
A Pentagon official on Thursday acknowledged "preliminary feelers" between the two countries dealing with military emergencies such as downed pilots or naval accidents in the Persian Gulf. A similar arrangement was reached for the Afghan war a year ago. The talks are taking place through Arab intermediaries in a small gulf nation, the official said.
Iran's Islamic regime has also approved letting a dissident group of Iraqi Shiite Muslims based in Tehran work with the U.S. military to oust Saddam Hussein, Tehran-based diplomats say. The group has several thousand armed followers in southern Iraq.
Iran's leaders seek:
· To gain leverage in a post-Saddam Iraq. U.S. motives also are complex. Both countries backed the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. But in January, when most of the Afghan fighting was over and Israel intercepted a Palestinian ship laden with Iranian arms, President Bush labeled Iran a member of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and North Korea. In July, Bush issued a statement that appeared to call on Iranians to overthrow the clerical regime.
In an interview on Friday, Secretary of State Colin Powell called the death sentence [imposed on an academic for criticizing clerical rule] "outrageous" and voiced support for thousands of Iranian students who have been holding protest demonstrations this week. "Sooner or later we will have better relations with Iran," Powell said. But he added, "We believe that this government had better start listening to its people."
Return To Top November 16, 2002
Hunters trying to exploit disarray within al-Qaeda
Extracts from a story in USA TODAY
WASHINGTON - U.S. clandestine officers and commandos are exploiting discord within al-Qaeda's ranks and using electronic surveillance and foreign undercover agents to cut into the terrorist organization, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
Despite some recent successes, however, al-Qaeda members still on the wanted list and at large include leader Osama bin Laden and several of his top operatives. Bin Laden sits atop the pyramid of senior al-Qaeda members being sought more than a year after the Sept. 11 attacks.
U.S. intelligence officials say they believe bin Laden is alive based on an audiotape broadcast by the Al-Jazeera satellite TV network this week, as well as other intelligence from U.S., French and German sources. The tape led to new criticism this week about the progress in the war on terrorism.
Beneath bin Laden are extremist Islamic philosophers who have helped shape al-Qaeda's message; nuts-and-bolts operatives whose skills run to bomb-making and hijacking; and financiers, recruiters and planners who may be in hiding now but whose next round of terror plots may already be in motion.
"They remain dangerous, but they are spending some portion of their time, a large chunk of it, trying to stay alive themselves," said a senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Given the scope of the organization and the fact that they may have had other large plots underway for some time, there is no reason to rest easy."
The hunt for al-Qaeda members, which stretches from U.S. cities to Pakistan's mountains to the jungles of the Philippines, benefits to some extent from internal disarray in al-Qaeda. The organization remains able to carry out attacks, as demonstrated by the recent nightclub bombing in Bali, which killed nearly 200, the suicide bombing of a French tanker off Yemen and the shooting of a U.S. Marine in Kuwait. But the war on terrorism has also led to internal power struggles in the organization.
A defense intelligence official said U.S. counterterrorism operatives have been helped significantly by information that has leaked out as a result of dissension in the al-Qaeda ranks, including tips to authorities in Pakistan, Yemen and elsewhere.
Another intelligence official said the tips, leaks and instances of lax "operational security" on al-Qaeda's part would be expected of any organization under intense pressure from U.S. and allied law enforcement, intelligence and military forces.
Return To Top November 16, 2002
150 feared dead as Maoists launch attacks in Nepal
From the Jang of Pakistan.
KATHMANDU: Over 150 people were feared dead on Friday when Maoist rebels mounted an offensive in two districts of rural Nepal as they pressed the government to agree to peace talks on their terms, officials said.
Some 3,000 Maoists, most of them armed, overnight marched onto the headquarters of the northeastern Jumla district, briefly taking over the town and trashing government offices before being driven out, police said. The rebels completely destroyed Jumla's small airport and set fire to the government buildings in the Khalanga area of the headquarters, a police official said.
The Maoists ransacked a major police station, killing 33 policemen, four soldiers and three civilian officials, including a judge, who may have sought shelter there, a defence ministry official said. The army sent in reinforcements as the sun came up, barraging the rebels with helicopters. "The bodies of some 52 Maoists were found scattered along the ground of the town when the army moved back in after 6:00 am," the defence official said in Kathmandu.
The death toll in Jumla, a Himalayan district of about 70,000 people, was impossible to verify independently. Most phone service out of Jumla was cut off. The leftist guerrillas already hold at least six of the kingdom's 75 districts and have launched attacks in nearly all of them.
The rebels also launched an offensive early on Friday in the western district of Gurkha, the ancestral home of King Gyanendra, where they bombed a security post at Takukot and then opened fire with machine guns, killing 24 policemen, a police official said. Eight more policemen were injured and rushed to hospital. "At least 50 Maoists are also feared dead in the attack," he said.
Return To Top November 16, 2002
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable PASADENA, California - Former United Nations weapons inspector Scott Ritter says the U.N. resolution on disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction makes war inevitable.
"We're going to war, and there's not a thing the inspectors can do to stop it, and that's a shame. Inspections worked once and they can work again," Ritter said Wednesday night during a speech at the California Institute for Technology.
The wording of the U.N. resolution will allow the United States to attack by mid-December, said Ritter, who was chief weapons inspector for the U.N. Special Commission in Iraq from 1991 to 1998.
"The U.S. has a policy regarding Iraq of regime removal. The last thing Bush wants is a weapons inspection regime that works. That would mean lifting economic sanctions and Iraq coming back into the fold with Saddam Hussein still at the helm," Ritter said.
He said the U.N. resolution carries a hidden trigger allowing Bush to attack after the Dec. 8 deadline for a weapons declaration from Iraq, and noted that there will be four U.S. aircraft carriers in the region in December.
If Iraq does not declare any weapons on Dec. 8, it will constitute the false declaration described in the resolution. Ritter said this would trigger a Security Council meeting to consider serious consequences.
Under the resolution, however, false statements or omissions alone would not constitute a new "material breach" for the council to consider. During negotiations, France, Russia and others demanded that an Iraqi failure to cooperate also be required for a new "material breach."
The resolution adopted unanimously last Friday says "false statements or omissions in the declarations submitted by Iraq ... and failure by Iraq at any time to comply with, and cooperate fully in, the implementation of this resolution shall constitute a further material breach of Iraq's obligations and will be reported to the council for assessment."
During his years as a weapons inspector specializing in forensic archaeology, Ritter said the Iraqis lied at every turn, leading inspectors to dig up demolished ballistic missiles and track the serial numbers to their Russian manufacturer for confirmation that all existing missiles were destroyed.
With such detective work, inspectors confirmed at least 95 percent of all weapons were destroyed by 1996.
Return To Top November 15, 2002
Australian to lead UN weapons inspection team Australian Broadcasting Corporation
A South Australian man is to lead the first team of UN weapons inspectors into Iraq.
Dr Bill Jolley is a former research scientist with the Defence Science and Technology Organisation at Edinburgh, north of Adelaide, and was seconded to the UN weapons inspection program 18 months ago.
As chief of its ballistic missiles section, Dr Jolley's role will be to lead the UN inspection teams in Iraq and liaise with Iraqi authorities.
He actually took on the role in May last year, when inspections were expected to resume in Iraq within months.
But in a letter to South Australian colleagues, Dr Jolley says for him the delay has been a blessing in disguise because it has given him extra time to prepare for the role.
He says he hopes the inspections will bring an end to a sad chapter in human history and rid the world of weapons of mass destruction.
Return To Top November 15, 2002
First phase of Indian troops'pull-back to be over by December
Jang fromPakistan.
The Indian army on Thursday said it will pull back majority of its hundreds of thousands of troops from its borders with Pakistan by the end of next month.
Lt-Gen JBS Yadava, the deputy chief of India's million-plus army, however, said the pace of the redeployment would depend on a reciprocal pullout by Pakistan. "The first phase of redeployment of offensive formations will be over by the month of December. But further redeployment will depend upon matching Pakistani moves," Yadava said. The offensive formations comprise the bulk of combat troops, massed tanks and heavy artillery of the Indian army. "A review would be conducted by the cabinet committee on security and if it feels that the security situation is conducive more troops will be redeployed," he said.
Yadava also said the marathon deployment had honed the combat skills of the frontier forces. "Deployment benefitted the army to a large extent because it was live training in an operational environment... It was a learning experience," he said, adding the army would begin exercises after the pullout in December.
The Indian army's Western Command, meanwhile, on Thursday announced the launch of a massive operation to demine thousands of acres of border farms in its food-growing frontier states of Rajasthan and Punjab. "The demining operation is going to be very deliberate and time-consuming as it has to be carried out manually with utmost caution," a Western Command spokesman said in a statement. "The army maintains extensive records of the position of each mine."
Return To Top November 15, 2002
CAR Ruling party Accuses Opposition in October Attack
The ruling party in the Central African Republic (CAR) has accused an opposition alliance of 13 political parties of complicity with former soldiers who invaded the capital, Bangui, in October, in an unsuccessful attempt to oust President Ange-Felix Patasse.
In a statement read over state radio on Sunday, the administrative secretary-general of the ruling Mouvement pour la libération du peuple centrafricain, Jean Joseph Tchendo, condemned the alliance - the Groupe des partis d'opposition (GPO) - for issuing a communiqué on 7 November criticising Patasse. The communiqué accused him of "violating his constitutional oath by allowing foreign air and land forces - namely Libya - to bombard the northern suburbs of Bangui".
Some 200 Libyan troops were sent to CAR, in the wake of a failed coup bid launched in May 2001 by former President Andre Kolingba, and are still in Bangui.
The ruling party's executive board said the alliance's statement was proof of its sympathy for and complicity with the attackers, whose leader was the CAR's former army chief of staff, Gen Francois Bozize.
Through its spokesman, Paul Bellet, the opposition alliance denied involvement in the coup. However, he told IRIN on Thursday, "Patasse's refusal to hold political talks could only lead to what is happening."
Apparently in no way intimidated by Patasse's expressed intention to prosecute some opposition leaders, Bellet said: "We are an opposition and we are not here to applaud the regime."
[Separately] In an attempt to head off a widening and deepening crisis between [Chad and the CAR] the two countries, the Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (known by its French acronym CEMAC) has decided to send a monitoring force of between 300 and 350 soldiers to the CAR. They are expected to be deployed this week.
Other African News
Rebels in the Ivory Coast have rejected a peace deal proposed by an international mediator, saying the deal favors the Government.
Fighting intensifies in Eastern Congo despite ceasefire.
With 4 million internally displaced persons, Sudan has the largest refugee population in the world today.
Return To Top November 15, 2002
New Briefs Israeli armor hits Nablus in search for terrorists
Israeli armor and infantry in approximately at least two-battalion strength struck Nablus, searching the town for terrorists involved in the kibbutz killing of five settlers. Israeli sources say the troops will stay as long as necessary. Eyewitnesses say the soldiers have sealed off the Casbah area, the old city, and explosions could be heard as Israeli troops blew down doors to search houses. ABC-TV showed, without comment, one of two tanks hit by a Molotov cocktail thrown from a multi-story building as they advanced along a street, and residents throwing objects at an M113 APC. One man jumped on the back of the heavily sandbagged APC to plant a Palestinian flag without any apparent reaction from the Israelis.
Bin Laden Tape Likely Fake, says Expert
An expert of Arab origin, whose name we did not catch, and who has met with Mr. Bin Laden in the past, when interviewed on US National Public Radio yesterday was skeptical the new Bin Laden tape is genuine. He particularly deprecated the reference to Bush as a Pharaoh - he saw this a biblical reference, not an Arab one; he said that the reference to Rumsfeld as the Butcher of Vietnam was meaningless because as far as Bin Laden is concerned, the Vietnamese and Americans are both infidels and he would have no concern for the Vietnamese.
[We found the purported Bin Laden reference to Secretary Rumsfeld and Vietnam a bit obscure. Mr. Rumsfeld, born in 1932, served as a US Navy aviator 1954-57. From 1962 to 1970, he served in the House as a representative from Illinois. In 1975-77, he was President Gerald Ford's Secretary of Defense. As such, he has no association with Vietnam. If one's political inclination lay in that direction of criticizing the US involvement in Vietnam, terming Robert McNamara the Butcher of Vietnam would seem more appropriate.]
US officials, however, have reacted in a manner suggesting that the tape is authentic, and that confirming Mr. Bin Laden's voice is a mere technicality. As happens in these confrontations, we should note that right now the United States needs Mr. Bin Laden as much as Mr. Bin Laden needs the United States.]
Colombia Coca Spray Program Biting Into Crop
The Washington Post reports that with the arrival of spray aircraft and escort helicopters from the US, and with the determination of President Uribe to wipe out the coca crop, already 115,000 acres have been sprayed with herbicide and 300,000 more will be sprayed next year. The plan to eradicate the crop seems to be working, though the Post notes in the past destruction in one area has merely pushed the growers to plant other areas.
A Post story would not be complete without its readers wringing their hands over some heart-breaking personal story, and this report is no exception. To no one's surprise, the spraying is also killing farmers' legitimate crops and forcing farmers out of villages that have depended on coca cultivation. We are left in tears at the conclusion of the story, where a farmer sells his chain saw for $80 after his 12 legal acres crop is destroyed along with his four coca acres. Its the only way he can pay for his daughter to finish high-school. "I have nothing", he says after the saw is sold, "nothing at all." Is there no end to the injustice in this cruel world?
Student Demonstrations Continue In Teheran
The Iran Daily reports a fifth day of demonstrations by Teheran University students, with 4,000 protesters participating, against the death sentence given to a professor by the conservative clergy. The clergy believed he had defamed Islam. President Khatami has said he believes the sentence is wrong.
Return To Top November 14, 2002
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration
Reported by the Islamic Republic News Agency
IRNA -- At last seven students have got killed and some
35 others seriously injured during two consecutive days of student
demonstrations that started on Wednesday by hundreds of angry Kabul
University students.
Afghanistan's Ministry of Higher Education on Wednesday night
issued a communique in which the previous two days' bloody student
demonstrations are referred to as "a pre-planned plot against
Afghanistan's national security," without mentioning by whom the
plot might have been hatched.
The university students' demonstrations were originally aimed at
protesting to unsatisfactory academic conditions, as well as the
inappropriate dormitories' status.
In Ministry of Higher Education's communique we read, "although
the demonstration was originally self-propelled, and comprised
merely of angry students, a group of anarchists later joined them
and tried to disturb the stability and security of the country's
academic centers."
Referring to the point that the bloody student demonstration
in Kabul coincided with the anniversary of Taliban regime's final
defeat, the communique expressed surprise that simultaneously many
university professors received threatening letters from anonymous
figures, hand made bombs were found here and there in the Kabul
University campus, some university students were armed with guns
and knives, and some of them chanted slogans in favor of Osama bin
Laden.
The accusation of supporting Al Qaeda and Bin Laden is raised by
the central government against the protesting students under such
conditions that they have repeatedly rejected such accusation and
condemned the previous regime and its supporters.
Confirming the existence of "certain deficiencies and problems"
at the Afghan Hi-Ed ministry has accepted to shoulder the
responsibility of eliminating them as best it could, while requesting
the students to introduce those responsible for the deaths of their
friends, and the anarchists to the government to be put to trial
and receive appropriate punishment.
It also calls the riot-like student demonstrations "new
adventurism" asking the Kabul University students to get back to their
classes as soon as possible and to permit the disciplinary forces to
restore peace and stability in the city.
Return To Top November 14, 2002
Netanyahu says he would expel Arafat if elected PM From Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency.
The Zionist regime's new foreign minister
and former premier, Benyamin Netanyahu, has called for the expulsion
of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, saying he would
banish the Palestinian leader if he won the upcoming Israeli general
elections.
Speaking to the Israeli-state run radio Tuesday, Netanyahu
reminded his listeners that he had always been in favor of "the
expulsion of Arafat's terror regime."
"I would find the proper time to do so," said Netanyahu, adding
that "such action would depend on international developments currently
under way," an obvious reference to American preparations for a
possible war on Iraq.
The new Israeli cabinet, described by many Palestinian and Israeli
commentators as the most extremist ever in Israeli history, is drawing
negative and hostile reactions from Palestinian officials and the
Palestinian public at large.
PA officials have sought to portray the Sharon-Netayahu-Mofaz
regime as "a fascist, expansionist, bellicose and anti-peace junta
intent on crushing Palestinian hopes for deliverance from 35 years of
Israeli military occupation and domination."
Some Palestinian leaders have entertained the hope that with the
Labor Party no longer part of the Sharon regime, the world community
might now exert pressure on the right-wing government which could at
least deter its army from carrying out acts of extreme savagery and
repression against Palestinian civilians especially in the 75 days
leading up to the Israeli general elections, due to take place on 28
January.
Return To Top November 13, 2002
[Debka has headlines that are updated every day, usually without any accompanying story. Editor]
Bin Laden hails anti-Western attacks in Bali, Kuwait and Yemen and Chechen hostage-taking in Moscow in new audiotape due to air Tuesday night over Arabic satellite TV al Jazeera
Al Qaeda leader also issues warning to citizens of countries allied to US
Sirhan Sirhan is the Palestinian terrorist who murdered five Israelis, including a mother and two children, in Kibbutz Meretz Monday
An operative of Arafat's Fatah, he belongs to same Sirhan family and carries same name as man who murdered Robert Kennedy on June 5, 1968
Military sources: His dispatcher Naifa has close ties with European Union Representatives
EU FA Commissioner Patten of UK has rebuffed probe to find out if European funds are diverted to terror by Palestinian Authority
Jordan's Abdullah makes surprise trip to Riyadh
DEBKAfile's Mid East sources: King seeks Saudi promise to rein in fundamentalist subversives in Jordan during Iraq war
In Ma'an, Jordanian siege troops round up Iraqi agents, Palestinian terrorists suspected of complicity in Foley murder
The Palestinian detainees are members of Baghdad-based Arab Liberation Front - the conduit between Iraqi military intelligence and Arafat's Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades
Return To Top November 13, 2002
Report: 48,000 to 260,000 could die if Iraq is attacked
From Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency.
An evidence-based report on the
consequences of a possible US-led attack on Iraq, published by
Medact, a British affiliate of the International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), was simultaneously released in 14
countries Tuesday, warning that between 48,000 and 260,000 could die
in the first three months.
Medact is an organization of doctors, nurses and other health
professionals undertaking education, research and advocacy on the
health impacts of violent conflicts, environmental degradation and
poverty.
Malaysia's IPPNW President Dr Ronald McCoy said that the report
analyzes the health and environmental costs of war on Iraq.
"The report is timely and sobering, coming at a time when (United
Nations) Security Council Resolution 1441 provides for tough weapons
inspections in Iraq, which could be manipulated by the US to initiate
an attack on Iraq," he told a news conference here Tuesday.
The report, entitled `Collateral Damage: The Environmental and
Health Costs of War on Iraq,' says that between 48,000 and 260,000
deaths would result during the first three months of the conflict.
"In the aftermath of the war, an additional 200,000 lives could
be lost," he added.
Return To Top November 13, 2002
Update November 12, 2002 We regret that due to a software glitch, we lost the entire upload for today and were unable to recover any part of it.
The five stories we covered were:
The Times of India reports that Iraq's parliament has rejected the UN ultimatum on inspections.
The Jang of Pakistan reports that the Jordanian Army has the terrorist Abu Sayyaf surrounded.
The Jang of Pakistan also reports that for the first time Indonesian authorities have named the militant Mullah Bashir as leader of the terror group the JI. He is under arrest for a matter other than the Bali bombing, to which he has been linked because a student of his has confessed to the bombing. Mullah Bashir, however, has not been directly linked to the bombing.
The Jerusalem Post reports that the Israeli Government has authorized a massive and immediate response to the killing of five Jewish settlers and that action appears imminent.
Debka has a two-part article on how US and British forces are tightening the noose around Northeast Iraq in preparation for a full-scale war.
Return To Top November 12, 2002
Two Indian Views of how the US Sees India Two Indian Views of How the US Sees India
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan.
By Chidanand Rajghatta: US Understands India on Kashmir - Ram Jethmalani
WASHINGTON: There is now a sea change in the way the United States views the
Kashmir issue including an implicit recognition of India's position, according
to Ram Jethmalani, Chairman of the Kashmir Committee.
Jethmalani, who is currently in the United States discussing the issue with a
wide range of American experts and analysts, including state department
officials, told Times News Network in an interview that Washington's
understanding of the issue and developments on the ground suggested that it was
now a propitious time to resolve the dispute.
"As far as India and the United States and India are concerned, we are in a
state of mutual agreement," Jethmalani said, while declining to elaborate over
how and in what way Washington had changed from its traditional position that
all of Jammu and Kashmir, including parts held by Pakistan, is disputed
territory.
The Kashmir Cell chief held informal discussions on Thursday with state
department officials, including Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca,
and soon after said he "sensed a change in the administration on Kashmir."
Little has changed in the State Department's guidance books about Jammu and
Kashmir (being a disputed territory), but US officials lately have openly backed
elections held there, endorsed the process and the results as free and fair, and
urged New Delhi to build on it to arrive at a permanent settlement.
While the administration has not disavowed Pakistan's claim to be a party to the
dispute, there is noticeably less enthusiasm about Islamabad's stand following a
sharp decline in its credibility because of repeated transgressions.
Jethmalani said he urged administration officials and experts to impress upon
Pakistan that "India's title deed on Jammu and Kashmir, both legal and moral,
are impeccable."
"A dictator cannot use democratic arguments like plebiscite and referendum,"
India legal light who is now acting as a political broker said. "India has
restored democracy in J&K."
"Musharraf also cannot get at the peace table what he could not win by war," he
added.
Jethamalani said the time was now ripe for a solution that abjured extreme
positions on all sides. That meant giving up ideas like secession and also
abrogation of article 370 that gives the state special privileges.
New Delhi on its part should also declare a general amnesty to release all
prisoners who publicly eschew violence and hold direct talks with those who took
part in the elections and also those who did not.
[Mr. Jethmalani is a lawyer by profession and a well-known fighter for civil rights. He is one of the persons appointed by the Government of India to help open a dialog with Kashmiri moderates and exteremists. Editor]
By Jyoti Malhotra: What the United Thinks of Us
THE Wonder that is India may be finally casting its long imprint on the
consciousness of the most powerful country on earth. From the golden-green
colours of Kerala to the Kamasutra to the nuclear reactor city of Kalpakkam, the
only democracy in the wide arc of Asia - between Japan and Israel, unabashed
allies of America - has, a whole decade after the end of the Cold War, firmly
intruded into the umbra of a country forever obsessed with its own manifest
destiny.
To be fair to the moment, actually to the horrific moments of September 11, the
long-delayed recognition of the Indian idea is part of the irrevocable changes
that have taken place in the geopolitical landscape in the last 14 months.
Or as a new survey conducted by the prestigious Chicago Council on Foreign
Relations (CCFR) put it, ''The September 11 terrorist attacks have accentuated
the worst nightmare of the new century: direct assault upon the United States
from weapons of mass destruction in the hands of newfound enemies around the
world.'' The wide-ranging study from the Chicago Council, a collation of
detailed perceptions, attitudes and analysis of how the American public as well
as its leadership looks at the world, is every bit an eye-opener. With the
aftereffects of September 11 refusing to die down, ''international terrorism''
as a ''critical threat'' to the vital interests of the US tops at 91 percentage
points.
''Islamic fundamentalism'' is up in the last four years, from 38 to 61 per cent.
While, China and the ''tension between India and Pakistan'' are neck and neck at
56 and 54 per cent respectively.
Analysts point out that the American obsession with statistics is as much a
function of the ''clarity'' Washington seeks from the global picture - so as to
be able to drive its own national interest - as much as ''control''. There's
little room for self-doubt in the collective American subconscious, especially
after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Figures and percentages, graphs
and charts are the only relevant ingredients in the crucible of truth.
Certainly, they serve to demolish the delicate ambiguity of indecision or the
indistinct nuance of the twilight zone.
The Chicago study's central feature, then, is a ''thermometer of nations'', to
measure America's ''warm feelings'' and ''cool feelings'' towards the world.
Right on top, in the ''hot'' category is Canada at 77 degrees, followed closely
by UK at 76 degrees. Russia, after its economic decay, is at a surprisingly warm
56 degrees, along with close ally Israel, Brazil and France. But just look at
these figures: India and South Korea, Washington's closest pal in South-East
Asia, are together at 46 degrees. North Korea, one arm of America's ''axis of
evil'', at 34 degrees is higher than Pakistan which is at 31 degrees. That last
figure for Islamabad was a whole 11 degrees higher only four years ago.
Only Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq - against whom the US persuaded the entire
Security Council, including Syria, to vote on Friday - are lower at 29, 28 and
23 degrees respectively.
For the first time, the tension between India and Pakistan has surfaced in the
Chicago study, conducted every four years. Startling results on America's
perception about Pakistan continue: Pakistan (50 per cent of the population) is
ranked as the second most ''unreliable ally'' in the public's mind after Saudi
Arabia (at 61 per cent). Nevertheless; 76 per cent felt that Pakistan had a
''vital interest'' for America while 65 per cent felt the same about India.
Kayatyani Shankar Bajpai, a former ambassador to the US who keeps in touch with
current events, says he is hardly surprised. ''This reflects the change which
9/11 has introduced into US. Before, a genuine interest was putting content into
the Indo-US relationship, both economically promising and strategically
useful... In the long run, India is a potentially sound asset to stability in
the world.''
Bajpai feels that the Republican party's interest in India is to a large extent
also driven by the fact of India's ''counterpoise'' to China. ''It is not in
America's interest to see a weak India,'' he adds.
The contradiction between America's ''warmth'' for Pakistan and its
''unreliability'' as an ally also doesn't surprise many people. The general
refrain, that America needs General Pervez Musharraf's Pakistan as a frontline
state in its war against terrorism is also reflected in the Chicago study.
''Pakistan - once a supporter of the Taliban, now a frontline state in the war
against terrorism and itself threatened by Islamic radicalism - has also leapt
to the forefront of American concern,'' it says.
Nevertheless, America also feels that the Pakistani people are more sinned
against than sinning. As many as 61 per cent favoured the use of US troops to
save the Pakistani government against a radical Islamic revolution - more than
those (54 per cent) who would help out Saudi Arabia if an overthrow attempt was
made.
Speaking of radical Islam, the American public seems to have logged on to
Islamic fundamentalism as a critical threat (61 per cent, jumped 23 points after
9/11), but reject the idea of a clash of civilisations. Only 23 per cent said a
clash between the West and Muslims was ''inevitable.''
Meanwhile, India has for the first time breached the coveted ''influence
scale'', usually reserved for the rest of the West. Here, India remains at the
bottom of the scale at 4.7, but interestingly enough, France is only marginally
above at 5.4. America tops in the imagination of its own people at 9.1,
strategic ally UK is second with 7.0 and China third at 6.8.
While 9/11 might have altered the Americans idea of India, we have surely a long
way to go.
Return To Top November 11, 2002
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq Excerpts from a story by ROBERT BURNS of the Associated Press; November 9, 2002.
WASHINGTON (AP) - A Pentagon plan for invading Iraq, should the new U.N. arms inspection effort fail, calls for a land, sea and air force of 200,000 to 250,000 troops, officials said Saturday.
The president has not, however, ordered the Pentagon to carry out the plan. He will wait to see whether Iraq accepts and abides by the terms of the U.N. resolution. If arms inspections go forward without interference, a decision to go to war could be put off for several months, officials have said.
Pentagon planners had considered an approach that would have used 100,000 or fewer troops, but they settled on a much larger force favored by Gen. Tommy Franks, head of the Central Command that would run any war in Iraq, said defense officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Times report said Pentagon officials are still working on some details of the war plan, but the basic approach is to begin with an air campaign, then quickly seize bases in northern, western and southern Iraq from which U.S. and allied forces could operate. A key early objective would be to cut off the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad in hopes of a rapid collapse of the government.
As previously reported, a major strategic aim of a war in Iraq would be to avoid causing major damage to civilian infrastructure such as water and electricity supplies. The United States hopes that by focusing the war on Saddam's ruling elite it can avoid an anti-U.S. backlash.
The Times reported that Saddam is preparing thousands of civilian volunteers to fill "martyrs' brigades" and sacrifice their lives to bombs and advancing troops. Some of these volunteers would hope to slow the American-led offensive by acting as suicide bombers or fighting in neighborhood defense squads, but their true strategic goal would be to generate anti-American feelings in the region.
[End of excerpts]
Meanwhile, JACK DORSEY of The Virginian-Pilot; November 8, 2002; reports that the rarely deployed USS Whitney has been ordered to the Red Sea. Excerpts follow:
NORFOLK -- The amphibious command ship Mount Whitney has been given orders to ship out next week to support the war on terrorism.
The Norfolk-based ship will be used as a floating headquarters off the coast of Djibouti, in northeast Africa at the junction of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Mount Whitney and a crew of about 600 are scheduled to leave Tuesday and will deploy with [400] troops from the 2nd Marine Division at Camp Lejeune, N.C.
The Americans will join a multinational force of thousands already in Africa -- including some who have been trying to catch terrorists there since al-Qaida began fleeing Afghanistan a year ago. Several months ago, 700 to 800 Americans were deployed to a French military base in Djibouti for what defense officials would describe only as ``training and contingencies.''
It is rare for the Mount Whitney to make transatlantic trips. Normally, it serves as the floating home to the U.S. 2nd Fleet, basically as a training command that prepares carrier battle groups for deployment. The 636-foot, 18,646-ton ship is loaded with communications gear.
Return To Top November 10, 2002
Pakistan Political News
Pakistan's Jang newspapers reports that:
Zardari, a former senator and former minister in his wife's cabinet, has been in custody for the past six years on corruption and criminal charges. He told AFP on Friday before being flown from Islamabad to Karachi: "A dialogue is definitely on and there are certain proposals under discussion between the two sides." He said PPP parliamentary leader Makhdoom Amin Fahim was in touch with the "powers-that-be and talked with me about their proposals".
Zardari did not elaborate but broadly hinted that the proposals related to the formation of a PPP-led coalition government. He rejected suggestions that a deal regarding his release was in the works, saying that negotiations were in the nature of "accommodation and a policy of co-existence". "I will have nowhere to go if I strike any clandestine deal with the powers-that-be and I don't want to put myself in a situation where whatever I have sacrificed in the past six years goes to waste," he said. "I don't say I don't want to be released. Every caged bird wants to be free and flying, but I will think twice if foxes are outside."
Although the government is silent, other politicians who asked not to be named said the offer extended to the PPP leadership involved freeing Zardari on medical grounds in return for agreeing to a coalition.
The Jang further reports that the officially-backed party, the Pakistan Muslim League [Qaid-e-Azam] is trying to make a deal with the coalition of religious parties because it does not want to ally with Mrs. Bhutto's party. All sides are encouraging defections to strengthen their hand. The PML [AQ] is worried that if it does not quickly make a deal with someone, anyone, the Government may order it to get n together with Mrs. Bhutto.
Return To Top November 10, 2002
U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. So President Bush has rolled over the United Nations, and all the pathetic protestations by Russia and France that they are independent actors and will vote on Iraq as they see best have been exposed as hollow. Your editor would like some clarity on the subject of the UN and Iraq. Either UN resolutions are meant to be respected, or the UN is a farce. Your editor agrees that from an Arab's viewpoint, the UN is a farce, because scores of resolutions directed against Israel have been ignored by Tel Aviv because America backs Israel. The US's selectivity when it comes to UN resolutions is, indeed, a serious matter, but right now the issue is Iraq and not Israel. The UN passed several resolutions that Iraq has failed to comply with. Is the world going to let its personal pique against the Mad Texan, Mr. Bush stand in the way of what is right and wrong? Either those resolutions should not have been passed; once passed, they must be enforced, and that in enabling the US to enforce them, the UN is playing into Mr. Bush's agenda is quite irrelevant. Russia, France, etc should either display sufficient force to stop the US agenda or they should come up with an agenda more in line with Washington's. Anything else is simply more of the pathetic moaning and whining anti-Americanism the world is so used to. Your editor firmly believes the UN should not have authorized war against Iraq on the issue of Kuwait, and that its members were talked into giving permission for war by Washington and London. That is beside the point here. Resolutions were passed. They must be enforced. If they cannot, please lets get the UN out of the war and peace business and let some other mechanism be created for these functions. Back to Israel and the Arabs. If everyone pulls together to enforce the UN's resolutions on Iraq, the world is going to have a much better moral case when it asks the US to enforce UN resolutions on Israel. Of course, presently the United States is blatantly saying its national interest is what counts; enforcing UN resolutions against Iraq is in the US interest, against Israel is not. Nonetheless, even the US is not quite impervious to moral arguments. Lets not have any more quibbling about what constitutes or does not constitute a violation of the Iraq disarmament resolutions. This is all too reminiscent of another US President's statement that it all depends on what the definition of is is. As a child, your editor clearly remembers his father flatly stating, in another context, that either one was a virgin or not a virgin. There is no in between state. So with Iraq and disarmament. Extracts from an AP story on US preparations for war with Iraq Please Click here for the full story. The Bush administration warned Iraq on Friday that it will have "zero tolerance" for any attempts to thwart U.N. weapons inspections, as the Pentagon prepared for fresh troop call-ups and a possible invasion to topple Saddam Hussein.
The Pentagon, quietly gearing up for war, already has tens of thousands of troops in the region as well as hundreds of planes and other military equipment. Two aircraft carrier battle groups are within striking distance of Iraq, and two more are heading to the region. About 58,000 National Guard and reserve soldiers are now on active duty for the war on terrorism. Thousands more would be needed for an attack on Iraq, possibly as many as the some 250,000 activated for the 1991 Persian Gulf War Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said this week that new call-ups for an Iraq campaign could come at any time. Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clarke would not discuss a potential U.S. military role in supporting the U.N. inspection program, except to say any U.N. request would be considered. She said she did not believe the Security Council resolution gives the U.S. military any additional authority in patrolling "no fly" zones over northern and southern Iraq. A senior administration official, talking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the United States would be obliged to participate in a debate over violations but that does not limit Bush's right to act without the U.N. if he chooses to do so.
Return To Top November 9, 2002
Debka says in its headlines for today that Interpol confirms Bin Laden is alive. He is in Saudi Arabia, working "closely" with Baghdad. Now while this may be true - certainly we are in no position to say one way or the other - this headline neatly implicates two of Debka's three favorite "love-to-hates" - Saudi Arabia and Iraq, wit Mr. Arafat being the third. We freely admit that Israelis have every reason to hate them; we simply wanted to remind readers that Debka is not an impartial academic journal but has its own agenda.
Return To Top November 9, 2002
More Developments on Mrs. Bhutto's Husband
We are not going to pretend we understand all parts of the following story. As nearly as we can understand it, Mrs. Bhutto's husband looks set to be released and allowed out of the country. Our readers will recall that two days ago Pakistan's Jang reported that Mrs. Bhutto's party would join President Musharraf's nominated party to form the government in Pakistan, forestalling religious parties from forming the government. As part of the deal, Mrs. Bhutto would stay away from Pakistan for two more years and her husband would be released. It seems, from the story below, that to strengthen her hand with President Musharraf's party, Mrs. Bhutto herself opened negotiations with the religious parties to form the government, just to remind the President she has alternatives. Of course, we cannot see the US approving her allying herself with the religious parties and this is only a negotiating ploy. Now, the story:
Asif Zardari shifted to Karachi
By Asim Yasin, writing in the Jang of Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD: In a major development on Friday evening, jailed spouse of Benazir Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari was shifted to Karachi from Islamabad to visit his ailing mother in a local hospital.
Zardari was taken to the airport from Pakistan Medical Institute of Sciences (PIMS) Islamabad, to board an evening flight to Karachi. There were speculations in Islamabad over his shifting amid rumours of under-hand deal with the government for releasing Zardari on medical grounds.
It is to be mentioned that Asif Zardari has become the central point of politics because the government reportedly does not favour the PPPP's joining religious parties to form the next government.
PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar stated that Zardari was shifted to Karachi on Friday evening to see his mother, admitted to Ziauddin Hospital. To question regarding any deal with the government, he debunked the rumours, saying: "Zardari's mother is in serious condition and we repeatedly asked the government to let him see his mother."
Talking to The News, acting Secretary-General of PPP Mian Raza Rabbani also denied any deal over shifting Asif Ali Zardari. He said: "There is nothing special in it. His mother is seriously ill and is in intensive care unit for last three days."
Sources here said earlier, Makhdoom Amin Fahim met some senior government officials, appealing them to allow Zardari to see his mother. Responding to the appeal, the government allowed Zardari to shift Karachi.
Some senior leaders of the party, including Naheed Khan, Syed Naveed Qamar, Raja Pervez Ashraf, Nayyar Bokhari, Masood Sharif and Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani met Asif Zardari prior to his shifting to Karachi.
The sources said Zardari's departure to Karachi was known to Fahim and Zardari only and the rest of the party leadership came to know about it through media.
Rauf Klasra adds: The shifting of Zardari is seen as the first part of the deal with the government as according to the sources, he was given no such relief in the past by the government. This reliefs, the sources said, was given on Makhdoom's personal request.
The sources said Zardari had refused to fly out of country directly from Islamabad and reportedly had put certain conditions to the government negotiators that includes, staying with his family in Sindh for some time before leaving the country.
Tahir Hasan Khan adds from Karachi: Talking to newsmen at the hospital, where his mother Bilqees Zardari, (70), is under treatment, Zardari said she had a heart attack and is in coma in the ICU.
Earlier, Zardari was brought to the hospital under tight security. He denied that his shifting to Karachi was part of any deal. "I am upset due to ailment of my mother. Please do not ask questions,' said a very sad-looking Asif. The authorities have declared the hospital as a sub jail, deploying police contingent around. No visitors were allowed to enter the hospital.
Talking to news reporters Hakim Ali Zardari, father of Asif, rejected the impression that Asif was released. Asif's shifting is not part of any deal neither Asif compromised for his release, he added and informed that other family members, including Faryal Talpur had already reached the hospital.
Asif's close friend Agha Siraj told The News at the hospital that the jailed PPP leader was allowed to stay at the hospital for two days to see his mother. It was not confirmed whether party leaders would be allowed the to meet Asif, he said.
Return To Top November 9, 2002
Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel
Apropos yesterday's story from Pakistan's Jang newspaper, also obliquely confirmed by the Dawn of Karachi, today there seems to more jockeying between rapidly shifting coalitions of Pakistani political parties. Unfortunately, we have no experts on the Pakistan political scene, and the huge numbers of parties with different interests, agendas, alliances, is defeating our attempts to understand what is happening. Regarding Mrs. Bhutto's husband, we know only his court date for Thursday was postponed, as his attorney was busy elsewhere; he remains in jail. Mrs. Bhutto's party is worried about defections that could weaken her; simultaneously she is also in talks with parties other than the official government-backed party.
Meanwhile, we turn to a political scene just as confusing, that of Israel. Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sharon are busy attacking each other, even as both of them are officially part of the same government.
Netanyahu edges Sharon in poll
The Jerusalem Post reports:
The campaigns of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu both claim to have taken the upper hand in the race since Sharon appointed Netanyahu foreign minister.
An exclusive poll by Midgam Research shows Netanyahu defeating Sharon 40.9 percent 40.5%, an 11-point swing in favor of Netanyahu since last week, when a poll by the same company showed him down by 9%. The rest favored neither or were undecided.
In response to the question: "Who will better handle the economy for the next four years?" 56 percent said Netanyahu, 18% said Sharon, and 19% were undecided. The rest said neither or both equally.
However, a Marketwatch poll to be published in today's Ma'ariv found Sharon maintains a double-digit lead, 48% to 38%.
Both polls were taken among representative samples of the 305,000 Likud voters eligible to vote in the race, and have a margin of error of 4.4% 4.5%.
Please Click here
Return To Top November 8, 2002
Religious Parties Not to Form Pakistan Government Religious Parties Not To Form Pakistan Government
While most of our readers have been understandably concerning themselves with the US, Israeli, and Turkish elections, a critical development has taken place in Pakistan. The religious parties are not to form the government as had earlier been expected. The report below, from Pakistan's Jang, says under US pressure a party promoted by the Government will tie up with Mrs. Benazir Bhutto's party to form a government of national unity. Mrs. Bhutto's and her husband will get amnesty; he will be released, and she will be permitted to return to Pakistan after two years.
We had earlier privately predicted the US would ensure the return of Mrs. Bhutto to the leadership of Pakistan, and were quite baffled when the decks were not cleared for her to land in Pakistan and take direct charge of her party. We were even more baffled when the US seemed to accept, with no protest or expressions of dismay, the probable accession of religious, pro-Taliban, anti-American parties to Pakistan's leadership. Now it appears the US was simply working quietly and rapidly behind the scenes, and that Mrs. Bhutto will indeed return to take over Pakistan, but not just yet. Where this leaves President Musharraf we cannot say. He has bought himself more time: the religious parties, while quite aware of the Pakistan Army's ability to squash them without a second thought, had put President Musharraf as their Public Enemy Number 1, even ahead of the United States. Nonetheless, we see no manner in which Ms. Bhutto and President Musharraf can coexist inside Pakistan: neither will sleep through a single night without worrying the other is planning to depose them. So let us see what happens.
We remind our readers that while the very charming, intelligent, and clever Western-educated Ms. Bhutto may be much preferable to a bunch of fanatical mullahs, and even to President Musharraf, she and her husband are no angels. She ran what passes for democracy in her parts, but by means that would ensure the arrest of herself and her husband within days were they to behave in a similar manner in a real democracy. The means included massive, high level corruption that put even Mr. and Mrs. Rajiv Gandhi of India to shame. Till the accession of Ms. Bhutto and her husband, Mr. Zaradari, to power, Mr. and Mrs. Gandhi held the all-time record for scale of corruption in South Asia. Of course, as the Indian economy is five time bigger, in sheer money amounts Ms. Bhutto and her husband ran a poor second. But some Pakistanis dispute even that.
The Jang Article
By Mayed Ali and Ziaullah Niazi
LAHORE: A `government of national unity', with Makhdoom Amin Fahim as prime minister, is in the offing as the government-PPPP deal has materialized because of the US intervention, The News has learnt.
Sources in the government have revealed six ministers will initially take oath -- three from the PML-QAA, one from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and two from the PPPP. It is learnt Ch Aitezaz Ahsan will get an important portfolio in the cabinet. It is also learnt the government is working on the PML-QA, especially Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, to settle him for the speakership of the National Assembly.
The political wheeler-dealers are busy finalizing the shape of the next government. Apart from Islamabad, a few important meetings were on in Lahore as well for drawing the sketch of the next Punjab government. Sources say the MMA and PML-N will sit in the opposition, though MMA taking the control of the NWFP.
The PPPP will form a coalition government with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-A and the PML-QA in Sindh, while the PML-QA will form the government in Punjab. It is learnt the PPPP will get an important slot in Punjab as well. The fate of Balochistan has not yet been finalized.
The important part of this deal is the possible release (on bail) of Asif Ali Zardari, who is expected to be released on Thursday (today). It is important to note Ms Bhutto has succeeded in forcing the government to accept the terms she set forth in the proposed deal. Sources say the PPPP will be given the relief in the shape of legal amnesty to the party stalwarts, including Ms Bhutto. The course of such an arrangement, that is legal amnesty, will be properly chalked out. However, sources say, Ms Bhutto will have to stay away from Pakistan for two years, at least. It is a very important part of the deal.
This deal has been made possible after the US intervention. The US Under Secretary of State Ms Christina Rocca had held an important meeting with Ms Bhutto in Washington early this week. It is learnt the 'displeasure' of the US government over the PPPP's support to a 'hardliner' from rightwing was passed on to Ms Bhutto in this meeting. The PPP Chairperson's cordial relations with the US came under skepticism in this meeting as the PPPP was working against the US interests by creating problems for 'Uncle Sam's man' in Pakistan. Sources said Ms Bhutto complained against the political arrogance of President Musharraf. Nevertheless, the US convinced her to enter into the said deal on the give-n-take basis.
This deal has been confirmed by some top PPPP men, who preferred not to be named. A central PPPP leader told The News the deal would be a strong blow to the ARD. He was of the view this deal would blemish the PPP's image, especially in the eyes of the seasoned politician, Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, who had struggled for democracy's revival all along. This deal will also widen the gap between the PPPP and the rightwing bloc, which would be ditched in case of the formation of a government of national unity. The PML-QA central leader Ch Shujaat Hussain and Amin Fahim were scheduled to meet late Wednesday night in Islamabad to thrash out the contours of the new national government.
Return To Top November 7, 2002
Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf
We've been saying for close on nine months now that war against Iraq cannot be considered imminent unless the US Military Sealift Command's big cargo ships sail. Reuters, quoting an MSC spokesperson, reports that the USNS Bellatrix, the USNS Bob Hope and the USNS Fisher have left US ports in the last two weeks. A war early next year may now be in prospect.
According to MSC, Bob Hope and Fisher each can carry of carry 58 Abrams battle tanks, 48 track vehicles, such as armored vehicles, and 900 other trucks. The Bellatrix, one of the fastest big cargo ships built, can carry 1/8th of a mechanized division by itself, and left from the US West Coast with US Marine Corps equipment, presumably for the 1st MEF.
There are another six fast sealift ships and seven LMSRs berthed at U.S. ports awaiting orders according to the MSC. In addition, says Reuters, since August the Pentagon has chartered at least eight large vessels from the trade. On Friday MSC confirmed to Reuters it had chartered two ships to move a massive quantity of ammunition and a smaller quantity of armor to the Gulf and the Red Sea.
Please visit MSC's prepositioned forces and other sealift forces for details of US sealift capabilities.
Return To Top November 6, 2002
U.S. Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force
The Associated Press reports that the US is
To coordinate U.S. military operations against terrorists in Yemen and elsewhere in the vicinity, the Pentagon is establishing a Joint Task Force Horn of Africa, to be based in the tiny country of Djibouti, between Somalia and Ethiopia. A headquarters element of the 2nd Marine Division, numbering about 400 troops, will head the command, officials said. It initially will operate from a Navy ship in the Red Sea, probably the command ship USS Mount Whitney, for the 60 to 90 days it likely will take to build a command post ashore.
There already are about 800 Army Special Forces soldiers in Djibouti. More Marines could be added later, officials said. They described the arrangement as a significant step forward in the global war on terrorism, likening the task force to a similar command running operations in Afghanistan.
Djibouti, a sleepy Muslim nation that lives off port fees, base rentals and foreign aid, has worked closely with the United States since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and has welcomed U.S. and other foreign troops that have trained in Djibouti. For a period during the Cold War, the U.S. Army used a Djibouti base as a listening post to collect intelligence.
Return To Top November 6, 2002
Robotic warfare leaves terrorists no hiding place The Times of London analyses the military and political implications of the US strike against Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The following is an extract. A new era of combat has dawned, where death is delivered by an unseen hand from hundreds of miles away
THE CIA is deciding where next to deploy its lethal robot technology after the spectacular success of its operation against a top al-Qaeda terrorist ambushed in the Yemeni desert. Military experts say that, when the CIA used a remote-controlled unmanned aircraft to fire Hellfire missiles at a vehicle carrying six suspects, America was pursuing a revolutionary new form of warfare in which no terrorist will be safe anywhere in the world. The Predator can range over hundreds of miles. It strikes without warning. In America's no-holds-barred War on Terror, distant operators, hunched over computer screens, act as judge, jury and executioner. As the al-Qaeda gang bumped across the desert in a black Toyota Land Cruiser on Sunday afternoon, they had no idea that they were being watched by a team of CIA agents hundreds of miles away, manoeuvring a camera on the nose of the Predator drone 25,000ft overhead. The vehicle carried Ali Qaed Sunian al-Harthi, who allegedly masterminded the attack on the USS Cole. Minutes later he became the first victim outside Afghanistan to be killed by what the CIA are calling their "robo-assassin". The identity of the man who launched the missile will never be revealed, nor where he was based. He could have been at a military base in Yemen, across the Red Sea in Djibouti or working from the control room at US Central Command in Tampa, Florida. Return To Top November 6, 2002
Netanyahu joins Israeli government
The Times of London reports that: "Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted his successor Ariel Sharon's offer to serve as foreign minister in a transition government. The announcement comes hours after Sharon was forced to call early elections for January 28 after the Labour Party quit the coalition government. Netanyahu had made the early elections a condition of his support for joining the coalition after the centre-left Labour party quit rather than support increased funding for Jewish settlements in Palestinian territory.
Return To Top November 6, 2002
Deatails of Other Predator Attacks This is an extract from an Associated Press story on the Yemen attack, probably carried out by a Predator, though some eyewitnesses say they may have seen a helicopter in the area at the time.
Since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, the CIA has used remotely operated Predator drone aircraft to make pinpoint strikes on al-Qaida leaders and do reconnaissance.
Mohammed Atef, bin Laden's military chief and a Sept. 11 organizer, was killed in November near Kabul in a joint airstrike by a Predator and U.S. military aircraft.
A Predator targeted Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar at the start of the war on Afghanistan, but military lawyers could not decide whether he could be struck, officials have said. Its missiles were ultimately fired near him, but not to kill him.
In May, a CIA Predator attacked Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar near Kabul, missing him but killing some followers. Hekmatyar had offered rewards for those who kill U.S. troops. The former Afghan prime minister is said by U.S. counterterrorism officials to be loosely associated with al-Qaida.
The only previously acknowledged U.S. successes against al-Qaida were in Pakistani cities. This year, al-Qaida's operations chief, Abu Zubaydah, and a Sept. 11 planner, Ramzi Binalshibh, were taken in raids conducted jointly by U.S. and Pakistani authorities. Both are in U.S. custody.
Return To Top November 5, 2002
Senegalese president dissolves government
Story from the Jang of Pakistan.
DAKAR: Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade has dissolved the government and plans to name a new prime minister, national television announced Monday."Prime Minister Mame Madior Boye has been relieved of her functions as have, in consequence, the members of her government," RTS television said during its midday news broadcast, quoting a presidential decree. "Boye and the other members of the government will continue to oversee current business until a new prime minister has been named," RTS said. No official explanation was given for the dissolution but the Senegalese press had hinted in the past few days that a reshuffle was imminent in the wake of a devastating ferry disaster.
Nearly 1,000 people drowned when the overcrowded Joola, a ferry that plies the route between the southern province of Casamance and the capital Dakar, capsized in rough weather on September 26. Only 64 people survived the accident, the worst in African maritime history. On October 1 Wade accepted the resignations of the two ministers most closely associated with the catastrophe, Transport Minister Youssouph Sakho and Armed Forces Minister Youba Sambou. Boye and Mining Minister Macky Sall took over their portfolios.
Two weeks later the head of the Senegalese navy, which managed the Joola, was fired. Boye became Senegal's first woman prime minister in March 2001 when Wade sacked his erstwhile ally Moustapha Niasse. She was re-appointed prime minister by Wade in May 2001 after the president's coalition scored a resounding general election victory.
Return To Top November 5, 2002
Editorial from the Arab News on Turkey's Election: "Electoral justice">
Turkish election results are stunning, not so much for the clear victory of a moderate Islamic party, as for the unequivocal rejection by the voters of the crop of bickering politicians, who have failed so spectacularly to steer their country for the last twenty years.
Just two parties, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Republican People's Party (CHP) of Kemal Dervis, (the finance minister whose resignation led to the collapse of the failing Ecevit coalition), have passed the ten percent threshold to secure parliamentary seats. Also wiped out are nine other parties, including the once-dominant Motherland (Anap) and True Path (Doru Yol) parties, whose leaders, Mesult Yilmaz and Tansu Ciller have both promptly quit politics.
On the face of it, Turkey now has its first strongly-mandated government since 1983, when Turgut Ozal's Anap won overwhelming support after the military ended their third intervention in Turkish politics since the republic's founding in 1923. Ozal unleashed a wave of economic reforms but lacked the political will to decimate the state's overwhelming and hugely costly presence in the productive economy. No subsequent government ever had the clear majority, let alone the determination, to pick up that ball so tragically and short-sightedly dropped by the Ozal administration. The deadly result was structural inflation which seized-up the banking system, destroyed investment and left all governments spiraling ever-deeper into debt.
There is however a big difference from 19 years ago; confidence. Ozal's reforms unleashed the pent-up economic energy of a country which had long locked itself away from the outside commercial world, whose biggest exports were hazelnuts. Today Turks are far from confident. They are cynical and weary and many of them have become distinctly poorer in the free market society. They ache for leaders who can be trusted to put their country and not political and sometimes financial interests first.
Erdogan is no political novice. A former mayor of Istanbul for an earlier and banned incarnation of the AKP, his administration was notable for its competence and lack of corruption. If track record alone were enough, he fits the bill. Unfortunately it is not. Though in the hustings, Erdogan accepted the stringent terms of the latest IMF $16 billion bailout following the 2000-2001 banking crisis, has committed himself to Turkey's secular constitution and has reversed the long-standing rejection by Islamic parties of EU membership, he remains an object of deep suspicion for Turkey's military, who remain powerfully behind the scenes. Indeed, thanks to a military-inspired prosecution, Erdogan was convicted in 1998 of inciting religious hatred and is thus constitutionally barred from holding any public office. It must be hoped that lawyers working under human rights legislation, recently accepted by Turkey, will be able to overturn this ban. It is not only unjust but, if upheld, will represent an extremely dangerous rejection of a ground swell of popular opinion.
Turkey's new government should be given a clean and unencumbered start, because it has serious political as well as economic issues to address. The question of the US use of Turkish bases for an attack on Iraq may be one of the earliest. The new government also has a unique opportunity to bring peace at last to the Kurds in the east of the country. Oddly, although there are 12 million Kurdish voters, the three-party alliance of pro-Kurd politicians failed to gain any MPs. Erdogan will be wise to ensure that the Kurds do not feel disenfranchised and unrepresented in the new Parliament.
The confidence that greeted the 1983 Ozal victory has, with Erdogan's outstanding success, been replaced by a fervent hope. Turks want leaders who will empty out the corrupt soup that Turkish politics has become and act with justice and honesty. If they can trust their government, they may even accept the substantial pain of closing down unproductive government industries, which have long been such a powerful source of political patronage at the taxpayers' expense.
Return To Top November 5, 2002
The United States and India If, as seems possible, the deepening relationship between the United States and India replaces the American fascination with China, the world balance of power could shift. Here are two articles on the United States and India, sent to us by Mr. Ram Narayanan.
How India Rebuilt its Relationship with the US After Pokharan II
In an exclusive interview to INDIA ABROAD, former Indian Ambassador Naresh
Chandra provides an insightful glimpse of how India won over the United States
after the post-Pokhran nuclear tests.
The interview appeared in two parts in the print editions of INDIA ABROAD dated
October 25 and November 2, 2002.
Excerpt:
"Within an hour, Talbott and Jaswant Singh were on the same wavelength."
Please log on to US India Friendship
and turn to the top right hand corner.
US Enthusiastic About Closer Naval Cooperation With India
A Washington-based consultant, John E. Carbaugh, Jr., who advises American
corporations on trade and political issues, prepares an independent monthly
report on political, trade and defense issues affecting India.
The following report dated October 31, 2002 focuses on closer U.S.-India naval
cooperation which it says is being increasingly touted in U.S. policy circles,
particularly with the threat of maritime terrorism becoming a greater concern.
"The Bush Administration has consistently made it clear that it views deeper
bilateral naval cooperation as a major part of improving defense ties with
India, and more broadly, of boosting the strategic relationship between the two
nations. Indeed, the U.S. and India recently completed what was viewed as a
highly successful joint naval exercise off the western coast of India. However,
increasing fears of maritime terrorist attacks have given the prospect of closer
U.S.-India naval cooperation even extra impetus".
"Although a concern over terrorism is one of the reasons for closer U.S.-India
naval cooperation, some observers have speculated that such moves as joint naval
patrols of the Malacca are also partly intended to send an implicit signal to
China of New Delhi's military prowess".
The report quotes a US analyst who says:
"India, which from a geographic standpoint naturally should be the dominant
power in the Indian Ocean basin, is working to become so and to extend its power
outward to the South China Sea, the Arabian Sea and down the coast of Africa.
New Delhi wants its navy to serve as a means of power projection through the
Indian Ocean and reach to the South China Sea. This move underscores India's
strategy to become an Asian power."
Another US observer is quoted as saying that India's plans are aimed at
enhancing its strategic standing in the face of Chinese rivalry. "Over the next
decade, India intends to produce weapons systems China cannot, including an
indigenously developed air defense ship -- basically a small aircraft carrier.
Through subsidies, loans and higher technology, New Delhi hopes to supplant
China as a major regional arms supplier. It also can take advantage of
underlying concerns about China within Southeast Asia, touting Indian weapons
systems as free from the risks of being swallowed by an aggressive China in the
future."
[Much as we would have liked to reproduce the full report, it appears to be from a private subscription service and is not open source in the way a newspaper report would be. We did not feel reproduction would be appropriate. Editor]
Return To Top November 4, 2002
Report: Iran Detains Bin Laden's Son Extracts from a story in the Associated Press
Iranian security forces have detained one of Osama bin Laden 's sons among several hundred people suspected of links to the al-Qaida terror network, the Financial Times reported on its Web site Saturday.
The newspaper said Iran had handed bin Laden's son over to authorities in either Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.
Bin Laden has at least 23 children by several wives. One of the oldest, Saad bin Laden, who is about 22, has emerged as an al-Qaida leader and one of America's top two dozen targets in the network. Mohammed and Ahmed bin Laden also support their father's efforts, U.S. officials say. [The son in question was not identified.]
The paper quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi as saying the group numbered about 250 and that all the suspects had been returned to their home countries. He did not identify any of them.
The anonymous official was also quoted as saying he believed bin Laden was dead. U.S. officials have repeatedly said they do not know if the alleged architect of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on America is dead or alive.
Return To Top November 3, 2002
Even as two wars in Africa have ended and troops withdrawals have begun, fighting continues in the CAR and Liberia. In the Ivory Coast, talks are underway and an uneasy truce seems to be holding. Two thousand West African peacekeepers from 8 countries are expected to start arriving. Congo Sends Off Military Allies Extracts from an Associated Press story. Congo bade farewell Wednesday to its military allies in a devastating four-year war, a day after the government and rebels came to a tentative agreement to share power before elections.
A closed celebration at the presidential palace in Kinshasa marked the end of the military involvement of Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia. They were backing the shaky government of the mineral-rich nation in a complicated conflict, in which rebels had the support of forces from Rwanda and Uganda. The United Nations has said that troops from Rwanda and Uganda have left Congo, except for 1,000 Ugandan troops that remain in the northeastern town of Bunia at the request of the U.N. observer mission to quell tribal fighting. Fewer than 1,000 remaining soldiers from the three outside allied nations were due to board planes home after the ceremony. Upon their departure, "there will not be a single Angolan, Zimbabwean or Namibian soldier in Congo," Congo Defense Minister Irung Awan said. At peak deployment, the three allies had 18,000 soldiers in Congo, Awan said. On Tuesday, the government and two rebel groups agreed in principle on a power sharing deal, mediators and rebel leaders said, though details still needed to be worked out. The peace talks are taking place in Pretoria, South Africa. Under the proposal, Congolese President Joseph Kabila would remain head of a transitional government with four vice presidents: one from the government, the opposition and each of the two rebel groups. Namibia and Angola already had withdrawn all or most of their troops, though a token Namibian force returned to take part in Wednesday's ceremony. Zimbabwe, which had about 12,000 troops fighting alongside the government of Africa's third-largest nation, began pulling out troops weeks ago.
U.N. Troops Begin Sierra Leone Pullout
Extracts from a story in the Associated Press
U.N. troops have started pulling out of Sierra Leone, in a step cited by the government Thursday as proof peace had returned after one of Africa's longest and most vicious wars.
A group of 70 Nigerians soldiers this week became the first to leave since the U.N. Security Council voted in September to reduce the 17,000-member U.N. force by 4,500 before June, said Masimba Tafirenyika, a spokesman for the peacekeeping mission.
The Security Council based its decision to partially withdraw on the West African country's successful elections and improvements in security since the rebels agreed to disarm.
The rebels, who were known for hacking off civilians' arms, legs, and noses, ignited the 10-year war in 1991 when they tried to overthrow the government and seize the country's diamond mines.
The U.N. and British forces pressured the rebels into signing a cease-fire in late 2000 and started disarming the rebels the following year. The war was formally declared finished in January.
Rebel representatives competed in parliamentary elections held in May, but failed to win any seats.
Return To Top November 3, 2002
US Military News CBS: Homeland Security Director Says More Terrorist Attacks Inevitable
It will be years before the United States is fully prepared to deal with the inevitable next terrorism attack, homeland security director Tom Ridge says. America would be "far, far better prepared tomorrow" than it was a year ago if terrorists attacked with, for example, biological agents, Ridge said Wednesday. But, he said, "I'm not going to tell you that we would be prepared to the level that both the president and the country desires. "It is going to take us several years to develop the capacity that we always will have to sustain in terms of being able to equip all of our major metropolitan areas with the kind of response capacity that they need to go forward," he said. Asked whether another terror attack is inevitable, Ridge said, "The answer is yes."
For the rest of the story, please click here
Associated Press: US Sends Team to Central African Republic [Extract]
The Pentagon sent a team Thursday to the Central African Republic to assess the safety of Americans as rebels battled to topple the nation's president, defense officials said. The small assessment team from the U.S. European Command went to look at security, infrastructure and other factors "in the event that we may need to take any action to evacuate or protect U.S. citizens," said Army Maj. Bill Bigelow, spokesman for the command in Stuttgart. Rebels supporting the ousted army chief, Gen. Francois Bozize, have been trying to overthrow President Ange-Felix Patasse. In November, the 65-year-old president accused Bozize of attempting to overthrow him and ordered his arrest. But Bozize fled to Chad and later moved to Paris at the insistence of regional leaders.
San Diego Union Tribune: USS Constellation Battlegroup Deploys to Mideast
While the deployment of the aircraft carrier Constellation and five escort ships has been planned for more than a year, the war drums over Iraq and Saddam Hussein make their departure anything but routine.
The Constellation battle group includes the carrier, an air wing of 72 aircraft, the cruisers Bunker Hill and Valley Forge, destroyers Higgins and Milius, and frigate Thach, all from San Diego.
Joining the warships will be aircraft and crew members from North Island Naval Air Station and Miramar Marine Corps Air Station. The submarine Columbia from Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, and the support ship Rainier from Washington state will join up in coming days.
The Constellation will relieve the carrier Lincoln and its planes and escort vessels, which are flying patrols over southern Iraq's no-fly zone and intercepting ships trying to smuggle oil despite United Nations sanctions.
For rest of the story please click here
Washington Times:Pentagon agrees to Navy's new generation of carriers
The Navy has won a budget battle within the Pentagon to build its futuristic aircraft carrier, and is now negotiating when the first big-deck CVNX can be constructed.
The CVNX has been viewed as a vulnerable program that might be canceled by the Pentagon in favor of smaller, faster ships as it seeks to transform the armed forces.
But defense sources said yesterday that key Rumsfeld aides have agreed to fund the next generation of supercarrier to replace Nimitz-class ships now at sea. With the future of big-deck carriers now assured, the debate is over the timetable.
There are two main options. Some Pentagon civilians want to cancel the first ship, the CVNX-1, which will use the hull of the Nimitz-class carrier and cost about $10 billion. Construction on the CVNX-2, a more advanced ship with a new hull design and $11 billion price tag, would start in 2009, not 2007 as planned for CVNX-1.
The Navy has countered with a different plan. Cancel the CVNX-1, but start CVNX-2 in the same time slot - 2007.
For rest of the story, please click here
Associated Press: Troops Ready for Iraq [Extract]
Better weapons and training will help Americans if they are drawn into an urban war against Saddam Hussein, but averting civilian casualties among Iraqis will be hard, Army Secretary Thomas E. White said Thursday. "You can look back through history to see that civilian casualties are very difficult to avoid, just because of the proximity of the combat activity to where people are living in these urban areas," he said. Urban warfare may be necessary to meet President Bush's goal of removing Saddam from power. The Iraqi president has promised to take any war with the United States into his cities, and U.S. military and intelligence officials acknowledge that combat in Baghdad's neighborhoods may be Saddam's best chance to counter some of America's military advantages. In a meeting with reporters Thursday, White declined to talk specifically about U.S. war plans for Iraq. "I'll just say the Army's ready," White said. "That's our job, to be ready, and the Army's ready."
Return To Top November 2, 2002
Catching Up On Afghan News · Press reports say 4 Afghan girls' schools were attacked by rockets or by arsonists.
· Meanwhile, reports say the ISAF has withdrawn its supporting forces from Karachi after credible threats of terrorist attacks.
· Pakistan State Oil is to sell 60,000 metric tons [60 million liters] of aviation fuel to coalition forces in Afghanistan in 2003. This comes after sales of 38,000 tons, plus 10,000 tons of high-speed diesel.
· One hundred and fifteen US troops departed Pakistan from Chaklala AB outside Lahore after completing a two-week exercise with Pakistan forces.
· Pakistan's newspaper Jang reports that the 60-year old detainee released from US custody in Cuba and returned to Pakistan has been detained again, this time by Pakistani authorities, without any given reasons. This is a common practice: several returnees from Afghan custody have been held for months before their release.
· The three Afghan returnees say they were reasonably well treated, but were not given eggplant and okra. They also did not like the Americans because the latter were not Muslims. [We know Afghanistan is a poor country, but did not think even the Afghans could confuse the Guantanamo Bay detention facility with the Hilton hotel. Editor]
· The Frontier Post of Peshawar reports that 12 British soldiers from the SAS have been decorated for gallantry in Afghanistan.
· Ariana Afghan Airlines resumed service September 18 between Europe and Afghanistan with its 20-year old Airbus. It has two B-727s, the three aircraft constituting the remains of its previous 17-aircraft fleet. Two donated Airbus from India are expected to arrive soon. Air India is taking over training and other functions for Ariana.
· The Asian Development Bank is to lead in an $830-million reconstruction of 1770-km of Afghan highways, including the key Kabul-Herat-Kandahar road. The United States, Japan, and Saudi Arabia are also participating. Among the projects to be undertaken and now in the design phase is a link from the Arabian Sea to Central Asia. A 483 km segment of this road is expected to be complete by 2005. [Highway reconstruction is, of course, the heart of Afghan recovery and the announcement is indeed good news. In the north-south highway, however, we can discern the larger hand of American geopolitics. Editor]
· SANA reports that 56,000 Afghans have left Karachi city and returned to Afghanistan. In all, the UNHCR has resettled 1.55 million Afghans in the last year. Nonetheless, the returnees are anxious and worried about conditions in their native land. They had very little in Karachi, but had security. Meanwhile, there are reports that well-to-do Afghan expatriates from the west, hoping to invest in their homeland, are discouraged by the corruption and maze of senseless rules that greet them when they return. Many are going back to Europe and the United States.
· NNI reports that: "Despite an agreement reached between the Hezb-e Wahdat-e- Islami and Jonbesh-e Melli Islami to disarm their fighters in northern Afghanistan, local military commanders may prevent the restoration of stability in the volatile region. Only a cessation of hostilities could make possible the return of thousands of ethnic Pashtun families who fled the area after being subjected to intimidation and harassment following the fall of the Taliban late last year." The US envoy to Afghanistan helped negotiate the agreement. Observers say that while the local warlords may agree to cooperate [given US pressure and threats from Kabul to remove them if they do not agree], local commanders often do not honor agreements made by their nominal overlords. [Nonetheless, it is a good sign that the United States has begun to move again the warlords. This is yet another sign the US does understand it will have to involve itself in the messy business of nation building. Editor]
Return To Top November 1, 2002
Opinion: American Homeland Security and the Haitians Have Come Ravi Rikhye expresses his personal opinion and does not speak for anyone else at Orbat.com.
While our bete noir the Washington Post, has had a field day hammering the Russians over their secrecy and the civilian deaths in the Moscow hostage crisis, most media understands the tough choices the Russians had to make. Now that we learn the deaths mostly came after people were rescued because of shortcomings in Moscow emergency services, the accusations of incompetence take on another dimension.
Meanwhile, the Post don't seem to have much to say about an amazing spectacle Americans were treated to a couple of days ago, where anyone with a TV could see two hundred Haitian refugees simply jump ashore in downtown Miami from their vessel and then make a dash for it along a freeway. The United States is spending tens of billions of dollars on so-called Homeland Security; we will not be surprised if the extra money allotted after September 11, 2001 is of the magnitude of the entire Russian federal budget. This is a country that can send a missile to shoot down another missile, put men on the moon a generation ago, track via remote sensors individual vehicles around the world, and if needed send a remote aerial robot to kill them, defeat big armies with the loss of a few dozen combatants, but it cannot protect its coast against a rickety refugee boat that chugged its way across the Caribbean.
We are told a US Coast Guard cutter chased the boat for several hours, trying to foul its propeller without success; the Coast Guard then ended up saving people in the water who could not swim. We suspect the late Mr. Peter Sellers, the comic actor, would have seen movie possibilities in this episode.
The least one would expect is suspensions of senior American officers while investigations are made as to how this fiasco came about. Instead, nothing. If this is American Homeland Security, then America's enemies are wasting their time devising ever increasingly elaborate deceptions to get terrorists and weapons into this country. They should be making their way to Port au Price, and learning to swim. No need to bother with infiltrating remote coasts, just head straight for downtown Miami. Oh, and be sure to wear clown suits to fool Homeland Security.
Return To Top October 31, 2002
Two Views On the Israeli Government Crisis
Debka: Sharon's Minority Government Will Survive Labor's Walkout
Ariel Sharon shows no sign of knuckling under to the demand from his resigned defense minister, the Labor leader Binyamin Ben Eliezer, for an early election next March or April. Labor's walkout from the unity government leaves Sharon with a minority government of 55 out of 120 Knesset seats instead of the handy 80 his unity government enjoyed for one year, ten months. But he has prospects. The prime minister achieved his first victory one hour after his government was whittled down when he rallied a majority of 67 Knesset members for the passage of the 2003 State Budget against 45 nay voters led by Labor and 2 abstentions.
Winning over the Mahane Leumi-Israel Beitenu and other hawkish factions to take his government past the 61 barrier will be his next order of business.
The formal pretext for Ben Eliezer's decision to quit was his party's ideological controversy with Sharon's Likud over funding for Jewish communities across the Green Line in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
For the rest of the story, Click Here.
Herb Keinon in the Jerusalem Post: Political, not diplomatic, earthquake
One frequently asked question when Israeli governments fall is what impact it will have on the diplomatic process.
The answer this time is simple: none. The reason is equally simple: this time there is no diplomatic process to speak of.
It's not as if Labor's decision to pull out of the government will put an end to some new initiative, block some major breakthrough. There are no new initiatives, and there have been no major breakthroughs.
The government's position has been consistently that there will be no diplomatic process unless there is an end to violence and the beginning of true Palestinian reform neither of which are dependent on internal Israeli politics.
It's not as if the Palestinians are now going to stop fighting terror because Shimon Peres is no longer foreign minister. They weren't fighting terror before, and won't be fighting terror now.
For rest of the story, Jerusalem Post
Return To Top October 31, 2002
Russian Economic News from Pravda World Bank gives estimate for capital flight from Russia
Capital flight from Russia decreased in the first six months of 2002 and reached $5bn, the chief economist of the Moscow office of the World Bank declared today at the presentation of the Fourth Economic Report on Russia, prepared by the World Bank. According to him, the inflow of capital to Russia increased mainly due to the return of Russian money from Cyprus. These funds mainly go to the private sector "in the form of commercial loans and bonds."
As it was reported earlier, the Finance Ministry of Russia estimated the volume of capital flight from Russia in 2002 at $9bn-10bn. The corresponding figures for 2001 and 2000 were $17bn and $25bn respectively.
World Bank posts data on investment growth in Russia
The growth of investments in fixed assets in Russia was 2.5 percent in the first nine months of 2002 as compared to 7.5 percent in the corresponding period of 2001, the World Bank's chief economist for Russia Christof Ruhl reported at a presentation of the bank's fourth economic report on Russia today. According to him, over 60 percent of these investments were made in the fuel and energy industry, transportation, state construction and housing facilities.
This year, the Russian government is forecasting economic growth at 4 percent annually; according to the forecast of the World Bank, this level will be reached. At the same time, Ruhl pointed out that if the growth of investments remained at 2.5 percent next year, economic growth would decline and would not reach the level of 5 to 10 percent by 2010, as the government forecasted, even in the event high oil prices were preserved. In order to reach an economic growth rate as high as 5 to 10 percent, it is necessary to have a 17-percent growth in investments. However, this is an approximate figure, as it depends on many factors, including oil prices, the rate of return of Russian money to the country and other indices, Ruhl stressed.
Return To Top October 30, 2002
Liberian Opposition Editor to be Released on Conditions
Story by James B. Bleetan II from Allaboutliberia.com
The Ministry of National Defense in Monrovia is working out appropriate modalities leading to the conditional release of Prisoner of War (POW) Hassan Bility and others arrested by the government of Liberia for "operating terrorists cells" in Monrovia.
Assistant Defense Minister for Public Affairs Philipbert Browne told journalists that had gathered at the National Defense Headquarters Tuesday to witness the "conditional release" process that the accused were not in the custody of the Ministry.
He said the Ministry of National Defense has already written the appropriate security agencies of government and some international organizations including the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to turn over Bility and others to its custody to make the process easier.
Assistant Minister Browne said his Ministry has also drafted the agreement under which the accused are to be delivered to the National Association of Islamic Opinion Leaders of Liberia.
He said the process to release Bility and others to the Islamic Opinion leaders has began and that he (Bility) and others are expected to be conditionally freed before Friday of this week.
President Charles Ghankay Taylor at news conference Monday at the parlous of the Executive Mansion said the move by government to consider the release of Bility and others was a "reconciliatory gesture", and warned that people must refrain from acts of terrorism, which continues to subject the people of Liberia to hunger, diseases, death and poverty.
At that conference, the Liberian leader made it emphatically clear that "no amount of pressure can make his government do things against the laws of Liberia", and cautioned that anyone who desires to test the resolve of his government would feel the weight.
Return To Top October 30, 2002
Extracts from a story by Nazir Majally in the Arabnews.com
OCCUPIED JERUSALEM, 30 October - The Palestinian Parliament yesterday approved Yasser Arafat's new Cabinet. Arafat's old foe, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, faced a battle to save his coalition government in Parliament today.
Legislators voted 56 to 18 to ratify the Palestinian president's ministerial roster in what was at times a stormy session at which critics accused Arafat of failing to make any real changes to a government they view as tainted by corruption It was a new Cabinet Arafat had pledged would overhaul his Palestinian Authority but which was packed mostly with old faces.
But the vote in the Palestinian Legislative Council marked a victory for Arafat after his warning that a "no" would cause a collapse of the Palestinian Authority and with it hopes for statehood.
There are five new faces in the Cabinet, which has been reduced from 21 to 19 members. In a move likely to raise eyebrows in Washington, Arafat replaced his interior minister, Abdel-Razzak Al-Yahya, regarded as a US favorite. Yahya had been in charge of reforming security services. Yahya was replaced by Hani Al-Hassan, a Fatah member.
[Meanwhile, in Israeli] Labour, led by Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, plans to defy the right-wing Sharon and oppose the 2003 state budget in the Knesset (Parliament) today over funds allocated to Jewish settlements in occupied territories. Labour has demanded some of the funds earmarked for settlements be reallocated to the poor and the elderly.
Sharon, riding high in opinion polls, vowed to eject Labour from his 19-month-old coalition if it voted against the budget, a move that would leave him without a parliamentary majority and possibly lead him to declare new elections for January. The loss of Labour's 25 seats in the 120-member Parliament would leave Sharon in control of only 55 votes. [General elections are due November 19, 2002.]
Return To Top October 30, 2002
October 29,
2002
Stratfor On Moscow Theatre Crisis and Chechnya Russia Likely To Respond To Chechen Crisis With Half-Measures
Summary
Following the recent takeover of a Moscow theater by Chechen militants, the Kremlin is likely to opt for more offensive battles in Chechnya, including possible cross-border attacks. But without a serious crackdown on the Chechen criminal network in Russia, such an offensive will not significantly improve Russian security.
Analysis
Following the violent end to the hostage-taking crisis in Moscow last week, the Kremlin is facing a tough challenge about what to do regarding its 3-year-old war with Chechen militants, who both Moscow and Washington now believe enjoy support of foreign Islamist groups including al Qaeda.
A continued war in Chechnya and possible new attacks on civilians in Russia could threaten both the current pro-Western regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the country's integrity as a whole. For the government, the most ideal option -- though not necessarily in terms of human rights -- would be a combination of major military strikes in Chechnya, the introduction of martial law in the region and the expulsion of all Chechens from Russia into Chechnya and abroad.
Although likely brutal, this would guarantee a much higher level of security for Russian citizens and foreigners outside Chechnya, and it could help Moscow's chances of winning the war. Chechen militants expelled from Russia would find it hard to penetrate more strictly controlled borders and commit attacks on civilians, such as the recent hostage-taking. Thus, martial law or emergency rule would drastically limit the ability of Chechen militants to conduct the war.
Another solution could be a combination of major military strikes in Chechnya, a declaration of martial law and a massive crackdown on Chechen organized crime and shadow businesses elsewhere. This option would help Moscow reduce international outcry following an expulsion of Chechens.
Though the West still might see a tough crackdown on alleged Chechen mafia members as a human rights violation, Moscow would have to choose between this disapproval and the fate of its security and integrity. Thousands of Chechen criminal organizations control tens of thousands of Russian state and private businesses, including some major firms in energy and other strategic industry sectors, Russian law enforcement agencies report.
Such a network amounts to a militant fifth column in Russia, making rebel attacks such as the recent hostage-taking in Moscow more effective. For example, it is already established that some Chechen "businesses" have a few cafes in the basement of the theater where the hostages were taken, and that much of the explosives the rebels used had accumulated in those cafes for several days undetected.
For the Kremlin, yet another option could be an intensification of the Russian army's current operations in Chechnya -- with no major strikes and without martial law -- along with an attempt to crack down on the fifth column that falls short of taking on the Chechen mafia.
A fourth option could be increased rhetoric against Chechen Islamists and stepped-up operations on the ground. In short, this option would imply the continuation of the war as it is being conducted now.
For instance, reports that the Russian army was launching a large-scale operation against Chechen fighters on Oct. 26 turned out to be untrue, according to Stratfor sources on the ground. Since the beginning of the hostage-taking drama, the pace of operations in Chechnya has not wavered. Russian special forces killed several militants, while the latter killed several Russians and detonated a mine, causing an oil train to derail.
The only noteworthy development on the ground is that Russian troops encircled four refugee camps in neighboring Ingushetia -- which contain not only civilians but also hundreds of Chechen fighters -- but have not installed checkpoints around the areas. Putin previously ordered that such camps remain untouched because he feared international outcry. Now Moscow apparently is trying to deal with the problem.
The final option -- one that an influential segment of the Russian elite, including pro-Westerners, are demanding -- is that the Kremlin end the war in Chechnya and start talks with Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov. But Putin will not take this route, no matter how pro-Western he is: It would be almost politically impossible after the hostage crisis and would put his power over Russia in danger. Ordinary Russians would not forgive him for capitulating.
What then is Putin likely to choose? On Oct. 28, he instructed the Russian General Staff to "bring about the changes in the plans of deployment of the armed forces," while warning that if militants try to seek or use weapons of mass destruction, Russia would take all necessary measures in all places where "the terrorists, the organizers of their crimes, and their ideological and financial inspirators are located," ITAR-Tass reported.
This is, in effect, a declaration of Putin's intention to conduct cross-border attacks on militants and their foreign backers far beyond Russian borders. Putin implies that he wants to follow the tactics that the United States and Israel, his new allies, long have used against Islamic militants across the globe.
The first obvious target could be rebel bases in Georgia, which Moscow claims have been used for years by Chechen and international militants for attacks on Russia and as a rear base. In the future, such a campaign could prove useful for the United States if some Russian special forces and air force personnel were to use the bases to strike al Qaeda-associated targets in the Middle East. This would help Washington reduce possible losses in its global anti-terrorism campaign, but it is unlikely to be used in the planned U.S. attack on Iraq because Russia says there is no link between Iraq and Islamic militants.
However, cross-border attacks would not eliminate the need for major strikes in Chechnya. In order for these to be effective, Putin would have to agree to introduce at least emergency wartime rules for Chechnya and combine major military strikes there with a crackdown on militants in Russia, and especially in Moscow. But this would not be effective unless Putin hit back at the Chechen mafia, which he is unlikely to do for two reasons.
First, too many Russian government officials and business leaders who support Putin have ties to Chechen organized crime, and they likely would sabotage any anti-mafia campaign. Second, Putin would fear Western criticism, since the liberal factions of the Russian and Western media likely would portray such a campaign as an attack on all Chechens.
This may leave Putin seeking an intensification of current Russian army operations in Chechnya without declaring martial law, and an attempted crackdown on the militants' fifth column without taking on the Chechen mafia. It does not appear that Putin can or is willing to proceed beyond this option.
He wants to accommodate all sides, both in Russia and in the West. He would not withdraw troops in Chechnya but, due to fears of a backlash, he would not take measures that would significantly increase Russia's chances to win this war either. Putin's hope likely lies in the fact that there currently is no well-organized and powerful opposition to him in Russia. He may hope that some offensive launched in Chechnya, along with cross-border operations, will defue the anger among Russians who believe their government is unable to protect them.
But he still might miscalculate, because the dissatisfaction with Putin's half-measures increasingly affects the Russian army and other power structures, including some active-duty generals, according to various Stratfor sources. But Putin's power will not be threatened in the near future, nor will he be forced to conduct a stronger U.S.-style war against the militants due to the lack of political opposition
Return To Top October 29, 2002
Debka On Recent Terror Attacks
We remind those of our readers that might be unfamiliar with Debka that this is a very much Caveat Emptor type of newsletter. It is heavily involved in domestic Israeli politics, and a lot of what it says makes no sense unless one is aware of what's happening domestically. We are the first to admit we have little understanding of this area. Nonetheless, Debka is an uncommonly good source of information on what's going on behind the scenes in the Mideast.
The assassination early Monday October 28 of USAID staffer Lawrence Foley in Amman was carried out the day after a bomb belt carried by a Palestinian suicide killer murdered three Israeli officers and injured 19 Israelis just outside the town of Ariel on the West Bank.
Not only did the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat hold back his ritual condemnation of bloodshed on all sides, but his own Fatah group together with the Islamist Hamas claimed the killings. Israeli security authorities report that the murder-squad was made up of two suiciders and one was still at large in search of another target. Israeli investigators discovered that the squad was put together, armed and briefed for its mission by Mahmoud al-Elul, governor of the big West Bank Nablus district and a close crony of Yasser Arafat, after he received a hand-delivered message from Arafat's headquarters.
DEBKAfile's military sources add: The large-scale bombing atrocity in Bali, Indonesia, on December 15, in which 180 mostly Western victims were killed, prompted a strategic decision by Arafat not to let Osama bin Laden steal the world terror show. The Palestinian leader is not averse to cooperating with bin Laden's operatives but refuses to play second fiddle to the Saudi-born terrorist on the world stage, and has resolved to cap every major hit by the international Islamic network with a multi-casualty Palestinian operation.
Six days after Bali, on Monday, October 21, a jeep loaded with explosives and driven by a Palestinian suicider torched an Israeli bus at Karkur Junction, creating a deadly inferno in which 14 trapped passengers were burned alive.
Some Israeli politicians, including members of the Sharon unity government, continue to advocate dialogue with the Palestinian leader. Some security circles also refuse to see the link between Bin Laden's terrorist actions and those of Arafat - even though a complicated NATO-Israeli hunt is still on in the eastern Mediterranean for the missing Cristi, a cargo vessel aboard which a large group of al Qaeda terrorists is believed heading for Israeli shores to attack a strategic target.
More recent intelligence information reports boats packed with explosives lurking in hidden south Lebanese anchorages ready to crash into Israeli warships or commercial vessels in the eastern Mediterranean, mirroring the attack on the French Limburg tanker in Aden harbor on October 6. This would be an instance of a joint operation mounted by Arafat's men and al Qaeda, some 200 of whose Afghanistan fugitives are hiding out in the Palestinian Ein Hilweh refugee camp opposite the Lebanese port town of Sidon.
Word of the Chechen hostage-taking siege of close to 800 spectators in a Moscow theater is reported by sources keeping track of Arafat's government headquarters in Ramallah to have set off heavy traffic of comings and goings, galvanizing Arafat into a fresh spurt of terror. Israeli defense authorities fixed on Jenin as the designated launch base for that strike, and therefore sent the troops and tanks back to the West Bank town as a preventive measure two days after the IDF evacuated the town.
That military presence may account for the suicides in the Ariel operation of Sunday October 27 coming from Nablus, not Jenin.
The Ariel operation was designed as a mega-terror strike. Its target was a fleet of buses picking up scores of soldiers at the shopping center, hotel and gas station just outside Ariel. The death toll would have been horrendous were it not for the heroic action taken by the late Maj. Tamir Massad, who ran forward and held the terrorist down to stop him igniting his bomb. Shahar Keshet, who happened to stop by for petrol, hearing the shout: "I see an explosives belt", ran up and shot the Palestinian in the head. At that moment the belt exploded killing the major and two other officers.
According to DEBKAfile's military and counter-terror sources, Israel security authorities are beginning to suspect that Arafat may have got hold of the target list drawn up by al Qaeda and its affiliated groups around the world and is adjusting his own terror timeline accordingly. What they fear most is that the two groups will coordinate their campaigns of violence against Israel and bring them to a fresh, simultaneous climax.
The controversy dividing the Sharon government over funding for the Jewish communities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip continues amid the bloodshed and specter of more to come. It is hard to see how the ministers find time to handle the looming threat. The prime minister faces a walkout by his left-of-center Labor partner if the "settlement" allocation clause in the austerity budget is not slashed. Spending is already severely reduced by higher defense costs and falling tax revenues from Israel's heavily recessed economy. Sharon promises any ministers voting against the state budget at its first reading Wednesday, October 30, will be deemed to have resigned.
If the prime minister gives way on the settlement allocations, he will have trouble with his own Likud, granting points to his rival former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Both Likud and Labor are talking about an early election, which Likud is confident of sweeping.
Defense minister Binyamin bin Eliezer is engaged in a battle to retain the Labor party's primacy against his articulate left-wing rival Haim Ramon, who wants Labor to quit the unity government and bring it down. Ben Eliezer, boxed in between Sharon and Ramon, is fighting for time. He suggests postponing an early election to March or April next year, six months ahead of full-term.
Arafat is meanwhile skillfully exploiting the squabbles in Sharon's government for fresh terror initiatives to prove how relevant he can be.
Twenty-four hours after the Ariel murders, Monday, October 28, a Palestinian assassin gunned down United States Aid Agency USAID official, Lawrence Foley, outside his home in Amman. DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report the murder was set up by one of the Palestinian terror cells operating in the Jordanian capital under Iraqi military intelligence controllers.
USAID has been entrusted with overseeing the democratic reform process of the Palestinian government, including the overhaul of its financing and security branches in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Arafat boycotts USAID and uses Palestinian media to incite against the organization and discredit its activities.
The murder of Lawrence Foley is also a step in Arafat's campaign to discredit Ben Eliezer. The defense minister has been bidding for support in his party's left wing by pulling Israeli troops piecemeal out of Palestinian trouble centers and handing security over to Palestinian forces. These projects were labeled "Gaza Strip - first", "Bethlehem - first" and now
"Hebron - first". According to his plan, local Palestinians forces were to combine with such international aid agencies such as USAID to ease the local population's economic distress and get health, jobs and education institutions running.
Arafat's unaltered rationale for striking against USAID has not changed since he launched his Intifada in September 200: Easing the Palestinian population's wretched lot would lower the level of his reservoir of suicides, many of whom act in a desperate bid to bring succor to their families - whether from Arafat's coffers, Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
However, Arafat now harbors an additional short-term objective: By keeping up the level of terror and extending it to a USAID director based in Amman, Arafat hopes to show the defense minister up as a failure on two scores: He is incapable of either protecting Israeli lives or bringing his Palestinian pacification project to fruition. The fresh upsurge of Palestinian terror leaves him no choice but to intensify military action against the Palestinians, a policy that will put paid to his military withdrawal-for-peace on the ground plans and hopes of re-election as Labor party leader.
Ben Eliezer's downfall is expected by Arafat to topple the Sharon government and force an early general election. That way, the coming US military offensive against Arafat's friend, Saddam Hussein, will find America's leading Middle East ally in deep disarray.
Return To Top October 29, 2002
Moscow Theatre Siege II From Pravda
The successful operation by the Russian Special Forces resulted in 750 hostages being freed, while unfortunately 118 died, most due to inhalation of a sleeping gas. 646 hostages are hospitalised, 180 of whom are on the critical list.
All the terrorists, 32 men and 18 women, are reported dead. Many refugees are being treated in hospital, showing signs of poisoning from the gas used by the special forces, who reacted when the terrorists started to kill the hostages.
From Debka
All but one of 118 hostages killed in special forces assault on Moscow theater died of gas poisoning - Moscow health director
Of 650 still in hospital, 150 in intensive care, 45 critical as Russians refuse to name gas
Russians investigate Chechen-al Qaeda links after Arabs of Saudi, Yemen origin reported among hostage takers
From the BBC
One Russian expert said the gas used was a chemical weapons agent and blamed the high number of deaths on delays in administering the antidote.
Lev Fyodorov, president of Russian's Union for Chemical Safety, told the BBC: "This was a military operation using non-lethal chemical weapons developed during the Cold War.
"They would have been intended for a military opponent."
As such, Mr Fyodorov said the authorities would be unable to prevent deaths of civilians in an enclosed space like the theatre.
The Russian refusal to say which type of gas was used has irritated several western embassies in Russia. The United States has officially asked for more information, insisting it is crucial for the treatment of casualties.
More claims have meanwhile emerged that international guerrillas had a hand in the hostage-taking.
The Russian authorities in Chechnya have said that a substantial number of the female rebels were of Middle Eastern origin.
This echoes President Vladimir Putin's recent suggestion that there were Arabs and Afghans among the hostage-takers.
The Russian security service later said that it had intercepted intensive exchanges over mobile telephones between the hostage-takers and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.
According to reports, Russian officials have instructed doctors not to let survivors out of hospital in case there are some hostage-takers hiding among the victims.
The special forces stormed the complex after pumping in the potent gas to disable the Chechen rebels.
The gas also incapacitated many of their hostages, leaving some unconscious, with breathing problems and memory loss.
Distraught families have been clamouring for information about relatives who are being held at medical facilities across Moscow, but so far they are not being allowed inside.
Police believe some of the Chechen rebels might be posing as civilian victims and they want to screen all the patients.
The Russian authorities often react with irritation to foreign - especially western - criticism of the war in Chechnya.
And the information about the suspected origins of the hostage-takers is likely to boost their demand for understanding from the West, says our correspondent Steven Eke.
But there are also serious questions to answer. about how the rebels managed to occupy the Moscow theatre.
Russia's borders are not open. The country allows foreigners to enter only after they complete strict visa formalities.
Foreigners living in Russia have to register with the police and may have their identity checked at any time.
From CNN:'Tantrum' sparked theatre raid
MOSCOW, Russia (Reuters) -- A tantrum by a frightened little boy prompted Chechen rebels to open fire in the Moscow theatre where they held hundreds of hostages, sparking a raid by Russian special forces, Chernyak [a survivor] said.
…on the third night of captivity, with tensions inside the theatre rising as conditions became ever more squalid, one young boy in a rear seat snapped, said [a survivor].
He threw a bottle at the rebels and ran down the aisle.
"He dashed towards the exit, shouting: 'Mummy, I don't know what to do.' They opened fire on him, but missed and hit seated people instead," she told Russian television from her hospital bed late on Saturday.
"They hit a guy in the eye. There was a lot of blood, bubbling blood. And a girl was hit in the side. Then they told us: 'Don't worry. Everything's all right."
Hearing the gunfire, commanders of hundreds of elite stormtroopers who had surrounded the theatre believed the guerrillas had acted on a threat to start shooting hostages if demands for a Russian troop withdrawal from Chechnya were ignored.
Fearing the rebels would detonate large quantities of explosives rigged inside the building, the security forces pumped large quantities of gas into the theatre, knocking out the rebels before sending in special forces squads.
In the ensuing mayhem most of the rebels, including their commander Movsar Barayev, were killed. A handful were taken into custody for interrogation.
Throughout the siege the guerrillas kept threatening hostages with imminent death, telling them the building was rigged with explosives and nobody would escape.
Before the raid early on Saturday a man stumbled in, saying he had managed to get past the security cordon outside the theatre and that he was looking for his son who was among the hostages.
"They did not find the boy. So they started to beat him up in a terrifying manner,
Before that in the same way they beat up a guy who had left the toilet -- the orchestra pit -- the wrong way, just climbed out of it," she said. "He was beaten, kicked, it was awful."
The presence of 18 female suicide fighters with explosives strapped to their waists among the hundreds of frightened theatregoers added to the atmosphere of fear and violence, Chernyak said.
"These Chechen girls, they were so happy that finally they were about to be free, that finally they were about to blow themselves up,".
She said the women -- each carrying up to two kilos (4.4 pounds) of explosives stuffed with ball-bearings and nails -- repeatedly told terrified hostages they were looking forward to dying and taking others with them.
"When they heard a noise from outside -- some eight hours before the storming -- they immediately dispersed among the audience," Chernyak said.
After the siege was over, Russian television showed the women's bloodied black-clad bodies sprawled or slumped in their seats, still attached to their explosive devices.
None of the "black widows," so named by some local media because three of them were married to Chechen field commanders killed by Russian forces in Chechnya, managed to detonate their bombs.
Return To Top October 28, 2002
Moscow Theatre Siege I From Pravda
Terrorists had strongly mined the theatre
The terrorists who held hostages in the Moscow theatre, laid about 30 strongest mines in the building, a spokesperson for the operative headquarters told Interfax Saturday.
In his words, two devices were especially strong: 50 kg in TNT equivalent each. What is more, each of the 18 female kamikaze had from 0.8 to 2.0 kg of plastid with detonator strapped to the bodies. Other explosives with the strength of 3-4 kg in TNT equivalent each were laid in different parts of the building, including the roof.
The spokesperson for the operative headquarters stressed that if the explosives were detonated, all hostages would die. It is supposed that victims might amount to about one thousand.
Special Operation Brings Popularity to Putin
The first responses to the special operation held in Moscow last night appear. Head of the Chechnya administration Ahmad Kadyrov expressed his strongest approval of the actions of the Russian leadership. In his words, "the world has no examples of special operations held so competently and effectively as the recent hostage release operation in Moscow."
Ahmad Kadyrov says he never doubted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would pass "the most adequate and correct decision to save the people." NEWSru.com informs that the head of the Chechnya administration is sure that the last night's events will rally the Russian population around the president even closer.
"The terrorists have made the grossest mistake. They expected to slap Russia in the face; however, on the contrary, the authority of the country on the international scene has increased many times. Russia demonstrated that it was resolute in its struggle against terrorism, and neither the president, nor the government will give this hard line up," Ahmad Kadyrov says.
Terrorists seized during the storming are currently being interrogated at the Prosecutor's Office; the identities of the terrorists, those killed and alive, are being established now. Witnesses, hostages, and the terrorists themselves are giving testimonies concerning all events starting with the hostage taking and finishing with the storming.
Fifteen shocked people have been delivered to Moscow hospital #15. MK-Novosti correspondents inform that one girl died in the hospital; she hasn't been identified yet. Two boys and one girl were delivered to Moscow's Filatovskaya hospital; one boy is in a grave condition.
It was reported earlier that two men and a young woman died on the way to hospital; it is very likely that these people became poisoned with the gas used in the storm.
Russian radio Echo Moskvy informs with reference to the press-service of Nord Ost musical (the musical was performed on the night when the theatre was attacked) that the administration of the musical has exact information only about 24 actors of the total number of the 97 actors acting in the musical. They are Director General of the Nord Ost project Georgy Vasilyev, 11 children acting in the musical, two coaches, and ten male actors. They are all alive. Information about musicians and technical personnel of the theatre is being ascertained.
To receive psychological help, relatives of the hostages can call +7 (095) 201-7070; for information about the state of the people taken to hospitals, please call +7 (095) 375-1302.
ITAR-TASS informs with reference to sources in the United Group of Troops' headquarters, a large-scale special operation has been launched in Chechnya. "Special forces of the army are searching the republic for all kinds of terrorist groups." Three terrorists have already been killed near the settlement of Novogroznensky after they attempted to put up resistance to the special forces. Servicemen say that food supplied by the Danish charitable organization to the republic was found near the place where the three terrorists were killed. Documents, weapons, explosives, and drugs were withdrawn from the terrorists.
Some time earlier, a video tape was demonstrated, in which Aslan Maskhadov actually claimed responsibility for the terrorist act in Moscow.
Soporific Used During Special Operation
It's likely that the special forces that stormed the theater building where Chechen terrorists held hostages used soporific to neutralize the terrorists, according to NEWSru.COM commenting on the video shot on the attack scene and demonstrated on the Russian ORT television.
The video demonstrated the terrorists, camouflaged men and women of Caucasian appearance, strapped with explosives. Judging by the poses of their bodies, the terrorists were killed while asleep.
Straps with explosives were taken off the terrorist women; to strengthen the effect of the explosive devices, they had been filled with bearing balls.
However, the operative headquarters give no comments concerning the use of soporific during the storming of the theatre.
Interfax informs that when troops from the Russian Ministry for Internal Affairs entered the theater hall half an hour after the storm, they saw dozens of unconscious people in the booths, the dress circle, and everywhere in the hall.
Commander of the operative rescue service from the Russian Ministry for Internal Affairs Anatoly Belousov says: "The people are shocked because of the stress and fatigue; their faces are white."
It is also reported that all hostages were evacuated from the building at about 9:00 a.m. All people have been sent to Moscow hospitals for treatment. According to Anatoly Belousov, there are no remaining explosives inside and around the theater.
Terrorist Leader Died Drinking Cognac
The dead body of terrorist leader Movsar Barayev was found with a bottle of cognac clutched in his hands in the hall of the Moscow theatre, where Chechen terrorists held hundreds of hostages for the past three days. Dead bodies of the terrorist women were found under the columns of the balcony, where children were seated. From 0.8 to 1.5 kg of explosives were strapped on the women's bodies; syringes were found near the dead bodies.
According to recent information, 32 terrorists were killed during the special operation. It is reported that no soldiers of the special forces were killed. A search operation for explosive devices is currently being carried out in the theatre building, a source in the operative headquarters informs. It is believed that more booby-traps will be found in the building. Experts with dogs have already arrived to search the theatre building, which is cordoned off by soldiers of the internal troops and the Defense Ministry.
Return To Top October 27, 2002
Massive Multi-National Naval Hunt for al Qaeda Ship
From Debka.
NATO, Greek and Israeli navies are scouring three seas - the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Aegean - for a cargo ship, the 1,600-ton Tonga-flagged Cristi, which is believed to be carrying a band of al Qaeda terrorists to a fresh targetGreek and Israeli authorities are on high alert.
DEBKAfile's maritime and counter-terror sources report that the Cristi , like the Sara, which was detained in Italy carrying suspected Pakistani terrorists, and another suspect vessel, Twillinger, is owned by the Greek ship-owner, Dimitris Kokkos, and a Pakistani-American, Rifat Muhammed.
Kokkos, who also owned the Palestinian arms-smuggling ship Karine-A captured last January by the Israel Navy, is said to live in Romania. He is wanted by the Greek authorities for smuggling.
Our investigation reveals that the pair head Nova Spirit Inc., a company registered in Delaware, US, which runs al Qaeda's shipping operations from the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanza and Nador on Morocco's Mediterranean coast.
Kokkos and Muhammed both vanished after the true functions of their known fleet of four vessels came to light.
But these ships appear to be only a fraction of the clandestine terrorist naval force prowling the region. Our maritime expert has so far uncovered another at least eight made-over terrorist vessels owned by different Middle East owners, some traced to Syria, which elude discovery by constantly changing flags and identities. They are believed to be bound for terrorist missions on European and Israeli shores, as well as American naval and military targets.
The Twillinger was detained on February 19 at Trieste with 8 al Qaeda operatives aboard posing as Pakistani crewmen. American and Italian investigators are still not sure if they laid hands on the entire ring. According to certain intelligence reports, twice that number secretly disembarked before the ship docked, and is now hiding out somewhere in Europe.
Six months later, on August 5, the Sara was intercepted off the shores of Sicily. Its original name Ryno had been clumsily painted over. The 15-man crew again turned out to be an al Qaeda cell equipped with fake Pakistani papers. They also had $30,000 in cash and detailed maps of Italy's main towns and the Vatican. DEBKAfile reported this incident on September 24.
The ship was towed to Sicily when it sent out distress signals.
Counter-terror agents now suggest the incident was staged to allow members of the terrorist cell to slip off the boat and make for their next targeted destinations. Later, the captain of the Sara reported hearing one of his "passengers" conversing with a member of the ousted Taliban in which they discussed the war against the "American Satan".
Return To Top October 27, 2002
October 26,
2002
Editorial from Arab News: Libya's Decision to Quit Arab Leauge 26 October 2002
Libya's reported decision to quit the Arab League is not new. Ever since the 1990s, when Libyan Leader Muammar Qaddafi bitterly attacked it because it would not break UN sanctions imposed on his country following the Lockerbie bombing, there has been a stream of anti-Arab rhetoric flowing from Tripoli. The Arab world has been accused of not supporting the Palestinians, of not standing up to the Israelis and the Americans. Last March, Qaddafi threatened to quit because the Saudi Mideast peace initiative was not to his liking, even though it had the backing of everyone else; only the last-minute intervention of the League's Secretary-General Amr Moussa, who flew to Tripoli to reason with the Libyan leader, averted the walkout. The Libyans said they would put the matter on hold. But it has not been on hold very long: just six weeks ago, Qaddafi was again musing aloud about leaving, this time accusing the League of "cowardice" in confronting Israel and the United States. Now he accuses it of inefficiency in dealing with the crises over Iraq and the Palestinians.
There is no denying that divisions have done great damage the Arab cause and to the Palestinians in particular, and that unity of purpose is a prerequisite if the Arab voice is to be effective. But Libya has itself contributed in no small way to those divisions. Nonetheless, if Qaddafi has a point about Arab weaknesses, he takes it to extremes. His present position is that Libya must turn its back on the Arab world and develop its Africa side.
Libya pulling out of the Arab League is not going to make it more, or less, effective in dealing with political issues. In any event, the League is about much more than the Palestinians or politics; it is about a pan-Arab vision. It is as much social, economic and cultural as it is political. It is all very fine for Libya to look at its African links, but it cannot be at the expense of its Arabness. Libya is an Arab country. That is its culture, its identity, its past, present and future.
Conversely, what are the grounds for embracing Africa and demanding a single Africa state? What is Africa's culture? Is it Swahili or Amharic or Hausa or Zulu? Arabs may be divided politically but they know they are united as a nation. Africa is not a nation, it is a continent - a richly diverse continent, but simply being part of the same megalandmass is no automatic basis for political fusion. In any event, the new African Union, like the old OAU, has already proved itself just as incapable of resolving political crises as the Arab League: the latest conflict, in Ivory Coast, is testimony to that; it is not the AU that prevents it spreading, it is French troops.
On occasions, every Arab government has been exasperated with the others in the League, but it has never been a reason to walk out. The Europeans squabble incessantly about almost everything; the EU itself failed lamentably to act on Bosnia and Kosovo until propelled by the US. But none of them thinks of upping and leaving. Quitting the League will not diminish it or the Arab world; it is Libya that will be diminished - and it is a move that will not be popular with the Libyan people. Hopefully Amr Moussa, who is much respected in Tripoli, will persuade Qaddafi to reconsider.
Return To Top October 26, 2002
American Muslims disturbed sniper suspect was convert
Extracts from a story by Barbara Ferguson Arab News
Muslim Americans were greatly disturbed with the news that the sniper arrested early Thursday morning was a convert to Islam.
John Allen Muhammad, formerly known as John Allen Williams, 42, converted to Islam 17 years ago. That is, he converted to the brand of Islam associated with Minister Louis Farrakhan's Nation of Islam, and legally changed his name to Muhammad one year ago.
[The Nation of Islam was founded in 1931 by Elijah Muhammad as a black separatist organization. The group changed direction in 1975 in an attempt to be seen a more mainstream, it renamed itself the American Muslim Mission.]
Police sources say John Allen Muhammad was connected with the Islamic Community Center in Laurel, Maryland, where he may have served as a guard.
John Esposito, professor of the Islamic studies at Georgetown University, said by choosing the same name as its founder, the sniper may have favored this strident version of Islam.
"There's no formal connection we know of to groups like Al-Qaeda, but his last name is Muhammad," Esposito said. "I am leery as to what one can say about this. It's the last thing Muslims need right now. This is their worst nightmare."
American Muslim groups were quick to distance themselves from any connection with John Allen Muhammad.
Nihad Awad, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, CAIR, said the public should not stereotype Islam because of the last name of this suspect. "We are concerned that because a suspect in this case has the last name of Muhammad, American Muslims will now face scapegoating and bias," he said. "Police reports indicate the suspects acted alone, based on their own motivations. There is no indication that this case is related to Islam or Muslims.
Awad said he asking journalists and media commentators, he said, "to avoid speculation based on stereotyping or prejudice. The American Muslim community should not be held accountable for the alleged criminal actions of what appear to be troubled and deranged individuals."
"There is no doubt that these types of incidents are having a cumulative effect on anti-Muslim feelings in this community. And it certainly did not help to have a man with the last name of Mohammad involved in this incident," said Khalil Jahshan, executive vice president of the Washington-based American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee.
"Prison ministries, in particular, need to be reassessed in a serious manner. Because, with all due respect, many of the converts and their activities, have not been good, particularly as they adopt Muslim names, and then drop out of the Muslim community. This ends up coming back to haunt us, and the net result is a defamation of Islam," said Jahshan.
"Personally, as we lived within one mile of the shootings that happened in the first and last two days, we were extremely relieved because our children were safe with no great impact on their lives. We also tried to tell them not to feel so full of anxiety, so we're greatly relieved," said Lobna Ismail, Executive Director of Connecting Cultures, a company that develops and delivers training programs on Islam, Muslims and Arab Culture throughout the United States.
"But I must say, what is painful about the relief is that the man is named Muhammad. I refuse to say that he is a Muslim, what he is - is a criminal, and has caused great terror in our lives. One of the challenges of being a Muslim in America today is that it is as though our religious identity defines our being. This person is an American, he's a former Gulf War vet, he's black, he's a criminal and he also may be mentally ill - and yet all those factors suddenly can be minimized and the Muslim name Muhammad rises above all these other realities of who he is," said Ismail.
Return To Top October 26, 2002
Abu Qatada says Sept.11 attacks jihad
From the Arab News
LONDON, 26 October - Radical activist Omar Mahmoud Omar Othman, also known as Abu Qatada, has denied having struck a deal with the British security forces. In the first-ever interview with the Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat since his disappearance more than a year ago, Abu Qatada said the charge of treason is one of the easiest and dirtiest for an enemy to make.
Special British anti-terror units swooped on a house in south London on Wednesday and arrested Abu Qatada. He is wanted by seven European countries in addition to Jordan, which wants to try him on charges of funding terrorism. Spanish investigators accuse him of being Osama Bin Laden's right-hand man. Abu Qatada, who received political asylum in London, declared great admiration for Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an ally of Bin Laden. He denounced the leaders of the Jama'a Islamiya of Egypt for their call to end violence. He said their admission that the terrorist attacks they unleashed were motivated by revenge and not as part of a jihad shocked him beyond words. Describing the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington last year as acts of jihad, he said, "What occurred in America has its positive elements...this outweighs its viciousness." He said he felt it an honor to be considered an enemy of America.
Additional Material From the BBC
A Muslim cleric suspected of links with Osama Bin Laden has been detained under UK anti-terror laws introduced after 11 September.
London-based Abu Qatada, who is accused of being a senior figure in the Al-Qaeda terror network, is thought to have been arrested on Wednesday. Mr Qatada, who had disappeared shortly before the laws came into force in December, was named on a UN list of suspected terrorists with links to Bin Laden.
Home Secretary David Blunkett announced on Thursday that a suspect had been held under emergency terrorism powers. He refused to identify the detainee, but it is understood to be Mr Qatada - a Jordanian-born Palestinian who was granted asylum in Britain in 1994.
Mr Qatada is a wanted man in Jordan, where he was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment in his absence for alleged involvement in a number of explosions in 1998. US and Spanish investigators have described him as "Osama Bin Laden's ambassador in Europe".
He is alleged to have links with shoe-bomber Richard Reid and Zacharias Moussaoui, who is being held under suspicion of involvement in planning the 11 September attacks.
A document was recently published on the internet under his name justifying the 11 September attacks on moral grounds.
Mr Qatada is the 12th suspect to be detained under the new Terrorism Act, although two have since left the UK, it emerged on Thursday. The other 10 remain in custody. The authorities have never named those they are holding.
In a written statement to the Commons on Thursday, Mr Blunkett said all the detainees were being held for immigration violations and did not face criminal charges. The law allows foreign nationals who pose a security threat, but cannot be deported or prosecuted, to be kept in custody indefinitely without charge or trial.
Mr Qatada was briefly arrested in connection with terrorism and released without charge in February, 2001. After the 11 September attacks, his passport was seized and his assets frozen. He was ordered to stay in his house. But in December he vanished just before the new terror laws came into force. After his disappearance, it was rumoured he had been recruited by the UK security services, a claim that was denied.
The Times newspaper reported that the radical 42-year-old - real name Sheikh Omar Mahmood Abu Omar - was arrested at a council house in Bermondsey, South London, in a joint operation by Scotland Yard anti-terrorist officers and MI5 agents. He is now in Belmarsh top security prison, according to the paper.
Return To Top October 26, 2002
October 25,
2002
American Risks Being Dragged into
Chechen Terror Crisis DEBKAfile's sources in Moscow are convinced that Russian president Vladimir Putin, known for his hardnosed approach toward Islamic extremists, will, in a matter of hours, order his Alpha forces to storm the Moscow theater where some 30 to 50 armed Chechens took 700 theater-goers hostage Wednesday night, October 23.
The hall, still known by its Soviet-era name, Hall of Culture of the State Ball-bearing Factory, was showing a popular Russian musical when the Chechen assailants burst in firing in the air. The armed band, led by Mosvar Marayev, brother of the notorious Chechen warlord and including widows of fallen Chechen rebels, released Muslim spectators and 17 children, before planting explosives around the hall.
Heavy casualties are almost inevitable if the Russians storm the hall - both among the hostages and their captors, some of whom are reported to be wearing bomb-belts.
The gravity of the situation is such that Putin has cancelled planned visits toGermany and Portugal.
He is also likely to put off his scheduled weekend meeting with US president George W. Bush in Mexico at a conference of leaders of Asian and Pacific nations.
The international fallout of this episode needs limiting quickly. The way the Moscow hostage crisis develops could not only exacerbate the conflict in Chechnya, it could also produce a cross-border Russian attack against Georgia, which Moscow accuses of harboring Chechen rebels and failing to prevent them from attacking Russia from Georgian territory, mainly the Pankisi Gorge. The precipices and deep, narrow defiles of this Georgia-Chechen border region recall the Tora Bora mountain region of Afghanistan.
After Putin threatened to send Russian troops to Georgia to root out the Chechens, the Tbilisi government finally went into action. In the past two weeks, Georgian special forces have been flushing Chechens out in operations in which US Green Beret special forces have also taken part. They have netted several dozen Chechen captives, most taken in the Pankisi Gorge. Among the captives was a group whom the Georgians call "Arabs", a local euphemism for Saudi, Yemeni or Egyptian al Qaeda operatives attached to the Chechen rebellion. This group was handed over to the American contingent and has since been flown out of Georgia to US detention facilities, including CampX-Ray in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
For now, the Chechen terrorists in the Moscow theatre have made only one demand: to end the war in Chechnya and pull Russian military forces out of the breakaway province. But counter-terrorism elements involved directly in the standoff expect further demands that may include the release of the Arab fighters Georgia turned over to the United States. That would bring America directly into the standoff in the Russian capital.
DEBKAfile's military and counter-terrorism sources say the Chechen theater attack sets up a new hurdle for Washington's planned war on Iraq. The Bush administration may be called upon to countenance a massive Russian attack on Chechnya, which it has thus far opposed. It is not clear yet whether Washington will reverse itself to this extent. However, the Bush administration has gone to enormous trouble to de-escalate tensions in flashpoints all over the world so as not to detract from the main thrust against Iraq. US diplomats have succeeded in the past few weeks in pacifying the Indian-Pakistani border from which both armies have begun to withdraw troops; it has kept the lid on Israeli-Lebanese border violence and delayed the imminent danger of a military clash between the Israeli and Syrian armies; Washington is also working hard to lower the level of violence between Israel and the Palestinians.
Similar efforts have been underway in Russia and Georgia, which borders Chechnya. But the Chechen terror attack in Moscow shows that Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and other terrorist elements are determined that make sure that Washington will not be allowed to make war on Iraq without being harassed by political and political complications, including terrorist action across the world.
The Chechen rebels' ability to take over a theater in the center of Moscow right under the noses of Russia's intelligence services and US intelligence and special forces in Georgia has set alarm bells jangling in Washington. Further large-scale terror attacks are to be expected to flare in various European capitals and in the Middle East in the coming weeks. A mega-attack in a major city in North America, including Washington, is also possible.
Return To Top October 25, 2002
Political Impasse in Kashmir May Be Solved
From IRNA
In a dramatic turn of events after some hardline positions, Indian main opposition Congress reopened the door for talks with People's Democratic Party (PDP) to form a coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir after two weeks of deadlock. [The PDP is the local Kashmir party that was in great part responsible for the defeat of the Abdullah dynasty. While the grandfather was considered a savior of Kashmir, his son, now defeated at the polls, was hated as a toady of the Central Government. The son wanted to pass power to his son, but the third generation Abdullah was personally defeated at the polls along with the National Conference, his party. Editor] A day after deciding to virtually bypass the PDP, the Congress on Wednesday announced that its Chief Mufti Mohammad Sayeed will head to New Delhi on Friday for parleys with Congress leaders. Congress sources said the PDP, which had earlier rejected the idea of rotation of chief ministership, has given some indication that it had a second thought. The ice-breaker came when Congress party President Sonia Gandhi got a telephone call from PDP Vice President Mehbooba Mufti Thursday morning, proposing fresh talks to break the deadlock that was quickly followed with Gandhi convening a meeting of top leaders. Senior Congress leader Manmohan Singh, who also had a telephonic talk with Mufti Sayeed, told reporters after the 90-minute meeting that Mehbooba had made "fresh suggestions" to break the impasse, which would be discussed at the Friday meeting. The 20-member Congress in a house of 87 claims support of majority of about 15 independents and six other parties. India brought its sector of disputed Kashmir under direct federal rule last Thursday after the failure of local political parties to form a government [the PDP does not have a majority either - Editor]
Return To Top October 25, 2002
October 24,
2002
The Indian Air Force in Decline The Indian Air Force in Decline
Ravi Rikhye
Yesterday we carried a report on the reequipment programs of the Indian Air Force (IAF) to 2007. Anyone not familiar with the situation might see the programs as a sign of progress, whereas they are a sign of the IAF's decline.
In 2001, according to the IISS Military Balance, India had 40 combat squadrons. While not entirely accurate, this is a good working figure. Of these 40, twenty-two are slated to have their aircraft retired; in their place, just five new squadrons worth of aircraft will arrive.
Twenty squadrons of Mig-21s form the backbone of the IAF, with units well below UE, leave alone attrition and maintenance and reserves. This fine aircraft has long outlived its utility. Ten MiG-21FL/M squadrons are being immediately withdrawn, as are 3 MiG-23BN and the Canberra ECM squadrons. Of the remaining 10 MiG-21bis squadrons, six will get upgraded aircraft in a program that is well behind schedule. Going into the future, two squadrons of upgraded MiG-27s will be left from the present six. The Jaguars and Mirage 2000s being purchased will compensate for the relentless peacetime losses the IAF has endured - 200 aircraft in 1990-2000, with 100 pilots killed, the bulk of which were Mig-21s. In addition to 17 Jaguars, India is to build another 20 by 2010. These might form another squadron, more likely they will also go mostly for attrition.
By 2007-08, the IAF will be down to two Su-30, two Mirage, five or six Jaguar, two MiG-27, three Mig-29, and six Mig-21 squadrons, for a total of about 20, or about the strength it had in 1962, before it began a buildup subsequent to the China war. The 140 Su-30s to be built will start entering service in 2008, and in theory, the Indian Light Combat Aircraft will also be in squadron service by then. There are, however, questions as to if this program will survive. At any rate, out to 2008 the IAF is going to be about half of what the IISS Military Balance says is the case today.
When almost all the world is reducing its air force in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet empire, should it matter that the IAF is also coming down to 60% of its peak strength?
Yes, because the threats to India have grown, not reduced. By 2008, the Pakistan Air Force will have about 300 later model F-7s, F-16s, and the new Sino-Pakistan light fighter. True that India will have an advantage in its Mirages and Su-30s. In 1965 and 1971, when the IAF fought the PAF, it enjoyed a numerical superiority of 3-1; whether 100 Mirage 2000s and Su-30s will compensate for a ratio of less than 1-1 may be debatable.
Moreover, China is the real problem. We cannot say what the PLAAF will look like in 2008. It already has about 100 Flanker family aircraft, more than India's Mirage 2000 and Su-30s. Suffice it to note that in the early 1980s, when the IAF was at its peak, an air war over Tibet would have resulted, according to the few Indian analysts that studied the air balance, PLAAF losses of 10-1. In 2002, the IAF would be hard pressed to hold its own. The issue here is not just the continuing, major increases in top-of-the line and modern PLAAF fighters, but the continuing improvements in its Tibet infrastructure, SAMs, missiles, raiders, and air refueling ability. In 2007, the IAF's combat power will irreversibly start declining within days because the PLAAF will have the advantage in numbers and aircraft quality.
Return To Top October 24, 2002
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade Today's update by Gordon A. MacKinlay
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade
By Isambard Wilkinson in Madrid, publication not cited.
Spain's pride in its military prowess was dented yesterday when it emerged
that a tank given a starring role at a national day parade was borrowed from
Germany at a cost of nearly £100,000.
The event in Madrid last Saturday, watched by 200,000 people including King
Juan Carlos, featured a Leopard 2E tank.
The media and military trumpeted it as a "glorious display of our country's
modern armed forces".
But yesterday El Pais newspaper disclosed that the tank was a prototype
hired from its manufacturers, Krauss Maffei, and flown from Greece, where it
was on display at a trade show.
Spain has ordered 219 Leopards for its restructured army but they will not
be in service until 2004.
Return To Top October 23, 2002
Journal of Aerospace and Defense Industry News Oct. 18th, 2002
Written by by Don Sharp
From New Delhi comes a report that the Indian Air Force has begun a sweeping
modernization with its plan to upgrade more than 200 aircraft.
It also intends to buy 100 more over the next five years. The report was
issued by air force chief, Air Marshal Shriniwaspuram Krishnaswamy.
Besides purchasing 32 Sukhoi Su-30MKI multi-role aircraft, the air force
intends to buy 10 Dassault Mirage 200s and 17 Jaguars in the next two years.
The air force is also upgrading 125 MiG-21 bis fighters, 40 Jaguars and 40
MiG-27s.
Krishnaswamy pointed out that aircraft upgrades will include adding mid-air
refueling capabilities to the Mirages, Jaguars, MiG-21s and Su-30MKIs.
The air force is also considering acquiring airborne early warning systems,
such as the Phalcon from Israel's Elta Electronics Industries Ltd. The
choice is between two technologies - the phased-array and rotting radar.
Aero Vodochody, Czech aircraft manufacturer, was encouraged by the
announcement. Aero is of the opinion that the company's L-159 subsonic
trainer could be gaining ground as India's choice for a new trainer. Some
Indian pilots have trained on earlier versions of the L-159.
Last August, high-level talks were in held in India between Indian
government and air force officials and a Czech delegation including the Aero
president, representatives of U.S. companies Boeing and Honeywell and Jiri
Rusnok, the Czech industry and trade minister. Aero later reported that
Indian officials assured the delegation that a decision had not been made on
the purchase of aircraft.
Return To Top October 23, 2002
Ethiopia condemns UN 'threat' claims Today's update by Gordon A. MacKinlay
From the BBC Saturday, 19 October, 2002, 17:59 GMT 18:59 UK BBC
By Nita Bhalla
BBC correspondent in Addis Ababa
Ethiopia has reacted strongly to United Nations assertions that the security
of peacekeepers stationed in the region has been seriously threatened by
Ethiopian villagers and militia.
The Ethiopian ministry of information issued a statement accusing the UN
peacekeeping mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (Unmee) of putting out
one-sided and distorted information.
Unmee publicised the incident selectively and in an exaggerated fashion
Ethiopian statement
Officials were angry about reports earlier this month that UN troops
overseeing the ceasefire that ended a 30-month territorial war were
threatened by armed villagers and militia along the disputed border with
Eritrea.
The UN said its peacekeepers working in Aromo were surrounded and threatened
by 50 to 60 armed villagers and some 10 militiamen.
In their statement on Saturday, Ethiopian officials said: "The Unmee office
has distortedly revealed to the media what should have been initially dealt
with between the pertinent Ethiopian authorities and Unmee."
The UN said Ethiopian militiamen tried to get into Eritrean villages
Last week, Unmee revealed that a letter of protest had been delivered to the
Ethiopian Government over security threats made to their peacekeepers in the
Aromo area on 4 October.
The organisation said armed Ethiopian villagers and militiamen entered the
buffer zone - which separates the Ethiopia and Eritrea armies - and tried to
enter Eritrean territory.
Unmee said the Ethiopians were carrying sticks, axes, and daggers and were
trying to reach Eritrean villages.
It added that when the UN's Indian peacekeepers stationed in Aromo tried to
intervene to prevent a violation of the peace agreement and to stop clashes,
there was a serious confrontation.
Unmee said militiamen carrying AK47s fired two rounds in the air and,
together with the villagers, surrounded the six peacekeepers.
The UN expressed concern, claiming that the incident was "a serious threat"
to the peacekeepers and to the peace process between Ethiopia and Eritrea,
still emerging from their bloody conflict.
But Ethiopia has now said that it had repeatedly notified Unmee that
Eritrean militia had rustled cattle and abducted Ethiopian citizens on
several occasions.
Addis Ababa said that it had long suspected that such actions might lead to
a problem in Aromo.
The ongoing peace process been Ethiopia and Eritrea has been dogged by what
Unmee call "hiccups".
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought their border war for two-and-a-half years
In April, Ethiopia closed its borders to UN peacekeepers for 10 days and
demanded the removal of the head of military wing of mission, Major-General
Patrick Cammaert, accusing him of "political bias" in favour of Eritrea.
Unmee has repeatedly denied that assertion.
Since then, Addis Ababa has also imposed airport restrictions on all Unmee
staff who come to Ethiopia by demanding that they show their passports, are
subjected to luggage checks and use the international terminal instead of
the domestic terminal at the airport.
The UN says Ethiopia is violating some parts of the State of Forces
Agreement signed between Ethiopia and Unmee, which allows for freedom of
movement and no restrictions for all Unmee personnel.
The 4,200 strong UN peacekeeping force has been stationed in the region
since September 2000, to ensure that a ceasefire agreement signed between
Ethiopia and Eritrea is respected.
Return To Top October 22, 2002
Friday, 18 October, 2002, 16:29 GMT 17:29 UK BBC
Sudan's rebels are claiming to have killed 300 government soldiers in
fighting on Thursday in the north-east near the border with Eritrea.
Speaking from the Eritrean capital, Asmara, SPLA spokesman Yasser Arman said
that government planes had been bombarding the opposition in Old Rassai.
There is no independent confirmation of the claims.
The rebels accused government force of launching an attack just 10 minutes
after agreeing a truce across Sudan
The agreement to suspend hostilities was signed two days ago and came into
force on Thursday at 0900 GMT, as peace talks resumed in the Kenyan town of
Machakos
The two sides have begun discussing a political settlement to end 19 years
of conflict between the Arab and Muslim dominated north and the mainly
Christian and animist south.
An estimated two million people have died in the conflict, and negotiators
believe a ceasefire must be in place if progress is to be made with the
overall peace process.
The first truce ever agreed between the two sides, which lasts as long as
the peace talks continue, covers all parts of Sudan, despite government
attempts to exclude eastern areas, where rebel forces have recently made
gains.
In July, the two sides made a breakthrough on the political front, when the
government agreed to hold a referendum on secession for the south, and also
accepted not to impose Islamic Sharia law on the south.
The peace process was then held up as both sides launched major offensives.
The SPLA took the key southern garrison town of Torit in early September,
prompting the government to withdraw its negotiators from Machakos.
The army retook Torit last week.
Return To Top October 22, 2002
Fighting in Eastern Congo Endangers Peace Process
Extracts: October 19, 2002 04:09 PM ET Reuters By Finbarr O'Reilly
BUKAVU, Congo (Reuters) - Congo's Rwandan-backed main rebel group said
Saturday it had retaken the strategic port town of Uvira after fighting in
which scores of civilians and soldiers died, reigniting the war in eastern
Congo.
Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused Congo's President Joseph Kabila of
backing militias in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and
undermining efforts to bring peace to the country.
The rebel advance triggered the flight of more than 30,000 inhabitants of
Uvira toward the Burundi frontier.
The rebel group, the Rwandan-backed Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD),
said it had recaptured Uvira, which pro-government tribal Mai-Mai militias
had taken six days ago.
Under a peace accord between Rwanda and the DRC in July, most foreign troops
withdrew from the vast central African country this month, but violence has
flared in the power vacuum left by retreating armies, causing renewed
tension.
"There is outright violation of the peace treaty by Kinshasa," Kagame told
Reuters at Kigali airport on arrival from a trip to London.
"We have fulfilled our part but Kabila has instead worsened the security
situation in eastern Congo," Kagame said. "Kinshasa assisted the militias to
take our formerly held positions and certainly if the situation worsens we
will not sit back."
The RCD had vowed to retake the key port town this weekend and foreign
observers said late Friday that Rwandan troops were seen crossing the border
into Congo to help them.
"More than 30,000 inhabitants of Uvira fled Saturday morning toward the
Burundi frontier, fleeing the return of the RCD," Burundian army spokesman
Colonel Augustin Nzabampema told Reuters. "The President of RCD himself,
Adolph Onusumba, came to pacify them and they quickly returned."
Return To Top October 22, 2002
October 20,
2002
Bin Laden Is Back in Saudi Arabia - Is Working Closely
with Baghdad
Today's update by KB.
Bin Laden Is Back in Saudi Arabia - Is Working
Closely with Baghdad
19 October: DEBKAfile reveals that the long-lost al Qaeda leader, Saudi-born
Osama bin Laden, is alive and inSaudi Arabia. He is believed to have landed
secretly at the end of September, shortly before the latest upsurge of
international terrorist attacks against the French oil tankerLimburg, the
shooting of American Marines in Kuwait, the Bali bomb disaster.
Two sightings of the elusive terrorist chief have now been reported
- both in the wildest, most inhospitable regions of Saudi Arabia, the Rub
al Khali, the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula, and Najran on the
Yemen frontier.
Here, the al Qaeda chief was seen on horseback - the way he was often
depicted in Afghanistan before the American 2001 invasion - reportedly
riding through the barren lands of the nomadic Al Murrah tribe, about
100 m southwest of the Al Ghawar oil fields.
No signs of disability or ill health were on view.
The Al Murrah, renowned as first rate field scouts, are among the fiercest
elements of the extremist Muslim Wahabi sect, Saudi Arabia’s state religion,
and number some of Bin Laden’s most fervent followers. Without friends
in the Al Murrah, this empty wasteland is impassable and uninhabitable.
The second bin Laden sighting took place in the Najran, a region lying
across the frontier between the south Saudi province of Asir and Yemen.
Here, he was observed on Saudi Bani Yam Saudi tribal land opposite Oman
on the fringes of the Empty Quarter. The Bani Yam are close allies of the
neighboring Yemeni tribes of the Hadhramauth, the Saudi-born terrorist’s
ancestral homeland.
In the Najran, Bin Laden is not only within reach of his Yemeni friends
and kinsmen, but in a position to control and deploy the 700 al Qaeda fighters
who escaped Afghanistan at the end of 2001 and early 2002 and set up base
in the Asir province.
His presence in Saudi Arabia explains the easy flow and frequency of
statements and messages reaching the Arabic satellite TV station al Jazeera
and other media in the region this month from Bin Laden and his lieutenant,
that were succeeded in rapid succession by fresh terror outbreaks. Some
even speculate in Washington that the mystery sniper who has murdered 9
in the Washington area this month may be an al Qaeda operative.
The most intriguing question is this: How did the Islamic terror master
manage to slip into Saudi Arabia? What political and intelligence elements
lent him a hand? The American and British maintain an extensive military
intelligence presence in the Gulf region for the buildup to the war on
Iraq. Without a helping hand from some governmental body or official, Bin
Laden and his top staff could not have touched Persian Gulf soil, let alone
Saudi Arabia.
How he manages to move in the dark was indicated in the testimony presented
by National Security Agency Director Michael Hayden at a Senate hearing.
He admitted that these terrorists have learned how to evade US interception
technology (first reported by DNW on September 6: Al Qaeda Messages
Still Invisible.) While the terrorists are able to feed disinformation
to the NSA, US intelligence has virtually no clue that any attack is coming.
What US intelligence has picked up is the deadly partnership taking
shape between Iraq and al Qaeda, whose potential for damage gives its heads
sleepless nights.
It enables Saddam to vicariously hit US Gulf forces, including
warships and carriers and strike at US targets outside the region, as well
as giving him the power to manipulate oil prices by sabotaging oil installations
and routes, using al Qaeda as his proxy.
And there is more. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources report the
al Qaeda’s return in the last two weeks to their previous training bases
at Bayara and Tawalla in northern Iraq. Some 150-180 fighting men are assembled
no more than 200 km from the US-Turkish special forces vanguard in the
north. They have been joined by a large group of Iraqi military intelligence
officers.
Together, they have set up a new pro-Saddam enclave of al Qaeda, Iraqi
intelligence and Kurdish Islamic extremists in northern Iraq to serveBaghdad
as a thorn in the side of the American campaign.
Our intelligence source comments: If Iraqi intelligence and al Qaeda
work so well together, there is nothing to stop them from expanding their
joint operation to other places, even the United States itself.”
This is what the CIA director George Tenet may have had in mind when
he said to the same Senate committee hearing on Thursday, October 17, that
the danger of a terrorist attack being attempted on American soil was as
acute today as it was before September 11, 2001.
Bin Laden’s return to Saudi Arabia and the bracketing together of al
Qaeda and Saddam Hussein confront the Bush administration with new and
pressing dilemmas, such as: Whom to go after first? The top al Qaeda command
which eluded capture in Afghanistan, or the Iraqi ruler?
Return To Top October 20, 2002
North Korea: Admission Aimed at Drawing U.S.
Into Talks
Summary
North Korea's reported confession about its ongoing nuclear program
is part of a broader strategy to push Washington into final peace talks.
Pyongyang has successfully used crises in the past to force dialogue with
Washington, and North Korea's leadership has been building up to a confrontation
in 2003, the 50th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
Analysis
North Korean officials reportedly admitted to U.S. Assistant Secretary
of State James Kelly during his Oct. 3-5 visit to Pyongyang that Pyongyang
has an active nuclear program. According to a U.S. State Department report,
North Korea blamed the United States and said U.S. actions had nullified
the 1994 Agreed Framework that promised internationally financed light
water reactors in exchange for Pyongyang's pledge to end its nuclear program.
STRATFOR's Russian diplomatic sources added more detail to the recent exchange,
claiming Pyongyang said it was natural for North Korea to have a nuclear
program since Washington had labeled the country part of the axis of evil.
North Korea's confession has sent shockwaves throughout Northeast Asia
and beyond. Japan and South Korea have called on Pyongyang to adhere to
previous nuclear accords, and both countries now face a serious domestic
dilemma in their ongoing negotiations with North Korea. The European Union
is questioning its commitment to fund the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO), the consortium overseeing the construction of light
water reactors. And the United States is pointing to North Korea's ongoing
nuclear program to bolster its case for an attack on Iraq.
For North Korea, however, the admission of having an active nuclear
program was not an isolated event but part of a carefully orchestrated
strategy to push Washington into talks. Pyongyang has successfully exploited
security crises in the past to extract international benefits: The initial
1994 Agreed Framework followed a standoff that nearly led to another war
on the peninsula. By raising the specter of a nuclear-armed North Korea,
one with an active and developed weapons program, Pyongyang intends to
leave Washington little choice but to come to the negotiating table.
North Korea's leaders have been building up to a confrontation in 2003,
a symbolically important year which marks the 50th anniversary of the armistice
that ended the Korean War. Pyongyang already has claimed that, because
2003 was the original date set for the completion of the light water reactors,
the United States is in default on the deal because little progress has
been made in the construction of the reactors and the project already is
running years behind.
Pyongyang has implied that the collapse of the reactor deal would leave
North Korea a de facto nuclear state, something the latest revelation about
its weapons program seems to verify. And with its self-imposed moratorium
on long-range missile tests ending in 2003, Pyongyang, by extension, also
would have an available delivery system for its nuclear weapons.
Pyongyang has carefully monitored the actions of the current U.S. government
and feels that the Bush administration's "hard-line" stance may in fact
make it an easier negotiating partner since it is more predictable than
previous administrations. And, as the United States has tacitly revealed
that it does not consider a pre-emptive military strike an option for dealing
with a state already in possession of nuclear weapons -- as opposed to
one still developing them like Iraq -- Pyongyang is fairly confident that
Washington will engage in negotiations rather than military brinksmanship.
Return To Top October 20, 2002
Yemen feels the backlash
Yemen's support for the USA's 'war on terrorism' may be having a negative
effect on the peace and stability of the country - as evidenced by the
attack on the French tanker Limburg.
In the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, the
government of Yemen initiated steps to seriously confront Al-Qaeda and
other Islamic militant groups active in the state - an initiative actively
supported by the US government.
A French Foreign Ministry satatement on 10 October that the explosion
on board the French oil tanker Limburg off the coast of Yemen on 6 October
was the result of "an attack" indicates the fight is far from won. The
attack may also indicate that militant groups in Yemen feel threatened
and are acting to undermine the crackdown by Sanaa.
Joint US-Yemeni co-operation, however, has been problematic, especially
given that Washington's popularity is at an ebb in the Arab world. Yemen's
decision to support the US-led war on terrorism - although Yemen had little
other choice - may have served to encourage the militant groups to confront
the government. In fact, leaflets distributed on the streets of Sanaa by
supporters of Al-Qaeda over the last few weeks promised attacks against
both US and Yemeni targets.
To avert the burgeoning threat, US special-forces trainers have deployed
to Yemen in the past year for a continuing training programme to assist
the government in the creation of a counter-terrorism unit. A Yemeni official
told Jane's Defence Weekly that teams of 20-30 trainers from US Special
Operations Command have worked in Yemen, training local soldiers on 2-3
week courses before returning to bases outside the country. The official
said, however, there are no US forces based in Yemen. A permanent US presence
would not be accepted by Yemen's powerful tribes.
While the exact nature of the US-sponsored training has not been revealed,
diplomatic sources say to date some 150-200 soldiers have graduated from
the programme. Washington is believed to have spent about some $100 million
to aid the Sanaa government combat extremism over the past year.
Return To Top October 20, 2002
War Diary: Friday, Oct. 18, 2002
Today's update by KB.
War Diary: Friday, Oct. 18, 2002
The most important news about Iraq on Thursday came from North Korea.
The Bush administration's decision to reveal the fact that North Korea
is actively pursuing nuclear weapons directly intersected with U.S. plans
for Iraq in two ways. First, according to U.S. doctrine, North Korea's
development of nuclear weapons is as much of a threat to U.S. national
security as is Iraq's. Any attempt to launch a campaign in Iraq must take
into account resources that might potentially be needed in North Korea.
Although the United States undoubtedly has the capability of taking out
nuclear development sites from the air, there is the inevitable possibility
of some counteraction by Pyongyang. The United States must now calculate
whether it has the appetite for two simultaneous crises, whether it has
the resources or whether it wishes to deal with the matter either sequentially
or by non-military means.
This brings us to the second intersection. If Washington chooses to
deal with the North Korean situation through diplomatic channels, it will
strengthen the hand of European and Islamic countries that argue that the
Iraqi situation should also be handled by non-military means. Although
the U.S. government is not obligated to be consistent, an inconsistency
will weaken the diplomatic hand it has been playing. In particular, it
will provide a new set of arguments for countries like Saudi Arabia, which
would be important to a U.S. operation against Iraq but which thus far
have declined involvement. Viewed in this way, the revelation about North
Korea represents a non- trivial complication to Washington's Iraq policy.
It was in this context that U.S. President George W. Bush said today:
"My hope is that we can achieve a disarmament of the Iraqi regime peacefully.
We have no plans to use our military unless we need to." While this has
been the basic U.S. statement of policy from the beginning, the emphasis
was shifted slightly away from the need to deal forcefully with the Hussein
regime to both the use of force as a last resort and to the willingness
of the United States to "listen to the arguments and to hopefully come
together soon to get a resolution which will achieve the objectives" in
the United Nations. With U.S. policy and strategy facing a more complex
set of challenges than before, the tone can be understood. Certainly, there
is no clear shift in policy nor any indication of one. There is only a
slight shift in emphasis.
Not making the job of the Bush administration any easier, the Iraqi
opposition expressed a new oil policy. In an interview with Reuters, Sharif
Ali bin al-Hussein, the spokesman for the main Iraqi opposition group the
Iraqi National Congress, said that following the overthrow of Hussein and
the INC's installation in power, "We would have to review all (oil) contracts
which have been signed by this regime to make sure it is in the interest
of the Iraqi people and not just for Saddam Hussein. We would review the
Russian and French contracts in particular although it is not an automatic
revocation. You have to bear in mind a lot of the deals were done by a
dictator." He also emphasized that Iraq's oil resources would be opened
to U.S. companies.
At a time when it is trying very hard to woo Paris and Moscow, Washington
could not view this statement as helpful. In fact, given the campaign in
the Islamic world to paint the U.S. motivation as a desire to gain control
of Iraq's oil supplies, the statement was quite harmful. The INC, whether
viewed as pro-U.S. or as a U.S. invention, will be construed as speaking
for the United States in many quarters. It could be supposed that the motive
behind the statement was to try to put pressure on France and Russia to
cooperate with the Washington, but neither is so unsophisticated as to
be blind to the potential implications of a U.S. victory without their
help. The INC statement may or may not have increased pressure on France
and Russia, but it certainly gave ammunition to opponents of U.S. policy
toward Iraq.
The Council on Foreign Relations, the organization that more than any
speaks for the conventional wisdom of the foreign policy establishment,
published a report today deeply critical of Saudi attempts to control the
flow of money to al Qaeda. Normally, the CFR would be much more circumspect
in its handling of a sensitive issue with a key U.S. ally. The focus and
the tone of the study is a strong indication of how far the U.S. foreign
policy establishment has moved on the Saudi question and how far the center
of gravity of U.S. foreign policy in general has shifted.
Oct. 17 was, therefore, an extremely significant day in the U.S.-Iraqi
confrontation. Depending on how the North Korean situation plays out --
and there is no clear path there yet -- there could be a serious effect
on U.S. policy toward Iraq. At the very least, the focus of U.S. attention
could shift or be split by this event. This points, at this moment at least,
to the likelihood of a later rather than earlier commencement of operations.
Return To Top October 19, 2002
Sharon returns upbeat after US assurances
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon returned home from Washington Thursday,
upbeat after receiving assurances the US would take adequate steps to minimize
the threat to Israel in any Iraq war, and having faced less pressure than
expected to ease the humanitarian plight of the Palestinians in the West
Bank and Gaza Strip.
He also persuaded President George W. Bush to publicly affirm the strength
of Israel's economy and express his confidence in its long-term potential.
Concerns about the potential problems a response to an Iraqi attack
could pose for any US-led offensive against Saddam Hussein having already
been aired, this week's talks consisted of "deep strategic coordination"
that will be necessary in any war, an Israeli official said.
Both US and Israeli officials are reluctant to detail that coordination,
which will include early warning of a US offensive.
Vice Adm. James Metzger, charged with coordinating the US-Israeli wartime
dialogue, could visit soon, Israeli sources said. But no date has been
set. While the US would prefer no response to an Iraqi attack, US officials
did not dispute Israel's right to self-defense during the meetings.
In a meeting with Secretary of State Colin Powell Thursday morning,
Sharon said there are currently 51 warnings of terrorist operations, and
he specified from which cities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip the threats
are coming.
Powell and Sharon discussed humanitarian issues in the Palestinian Authority
areas, including the best way to transfer Palestinian tax revenues to the
PA in a transparent manner, and broader issues including North Korea's
confession regarding its nuclear weapons program, State Department spokesman
Richard Boucher said.
But Israeli officials said Powell, while indicating he is eager to see
steps to improve living conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, acknowledged
the dangers loosening restrictions sometimes entails.
Powell and Sharon also discussed Assistant Secretary of State for Near
Eastern Affairs William Burns's two-week trip to the Middle East, designed
to drum up support for PA reform and fresh peace moves.
Burns met with other members of the Quartet the UN, EU, and Russia yesterday
to discuss a road map for implementing Bush's vision of Palestinian reform
and statehood within three years.
The discussions are based on a six-page document, "Performance-Based
Road Map to a Permanent Two-State Solution," which is similar to a Quartet
plan drafted in New York in September. A senior Arab official in the region
said all sides hoped to have one final plan completed by the end of the
month.
The Quartet's road map calls for discussions on provisional statehood
to begin in the middle of next year.
Burns will be traveling to Arab capitals and to Israel to garner support
for the plan and to discuss a possible war with Iraq.
The government has not yet formally responded to the plan. One official
said it is troubled by some of the dates contained in the plan.
Sharon also met Thursday with Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and
Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott on Capitol Hill. He thanked them for
Congress's support and enquired about $200 million in supplemental aid
that is stuck in the budgetary process.
Daschle said that when it comes to Israel, there are no Democrats or
Republicans, "only Americans." Sharon wished both parties good luck in
the November 5 elections.
Return To Top October 19, 2002
Indonesia: Too little, too late against terrorism
JAKARTA - The deadly bomb blasts in Bali last weekend prove that terrorist
groups - be they international or home-grown - do exist in Indonesia, but
whether the attacks will invigorate the country's resolve to fight against
terrorism remains a big question.
While the police have declared Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir a suspect
in a string of bomb attacks against churches in Jakarta and some other
cities on Christmas Eve, 2000, speculation is running high that the move
was merely a smokescreen in reaction to strong international pressure for
President Megawati Sukarnoputri to act against religious leaders or groups
suspected as terrorist agents or networks.
Ba'asyir, who is also chairman of the Indonesian Mujahidin Council,
has been identified as the founder and leader of Jemaah Islamiah, which
had been declared a regional terrorist network by neighboring countries
Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia. The Philippines and the United States
have also put Ba'asyir on their terrorist lists.
The government was also scheduled to issue a regulation on anti- terrorism
on Friday that will provide law enforcers with legal grounds to detain
or question suspected terrorists. But the draft of the regulation suggested
that it will be inadequate to combat a terrorist network that has proved
itself capable of wreaking havoc in the world's biggest Muslim country.
The draft, for example, does not make any concrete definition of terrorism
and excludes politically-motivated crimes, allowing terror perpetrators
to hide behind political issues to elude prosecution.
The draft is also full of loopholes for human-rights violations. Suspected
terrorists, for example, can be detained for three days without charge
and are not allowed to bring in lawyers during interrogations.
Given the government's poor track record in fighting terrorism and the
high political cost Megawati has to pay if she goes after Muslim clerics
suspected as terrorists, there is no reason to believe that perpetrators
of last weekend's attacks will ever see justice or their networks
be destroyed.
Evidence of the presence of terrorists in the archipelago was plentiful
before last Saturday's terrorist attacks but the government chose to ignore
it. Neighboring countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines,
and Australia as well as the United States have constantly reminded Indonesia
of the presence of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda in the country, but their
warnings went unheeded.
Instead of following up intelligence reports supplied by these friendly
countries, some government officials, including Vice President Hamzah Haz,
denied the presence of any terrorist groups. They also consistently opposed
moves by Megawati to arrest Ba'asyir, who was already suspected as a terrorist
by Malaysia and Singapore. At one point, Hamzah, who is also chairman of
the Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP), said "over my dead body"
when the Megawati administration wanted to arrest militant Muslim leaders
such as Ba'asyir, chairman of Islamic Defense Front (FPI) Habib Rizieq,
and Laskar Jihad commander Jaffar Umar Thalib.
Foreign pressure is now mounting for Megawati to take stern action against
certain Muslim clerics suspected of belonging to groups such as the Jemaah
Islamiah, with Ba'asyir as a special target.
Megawati, who assumed the presidential post in July 2001, is now challenged
to confront Muslim groups that have never come to terms with her being
the president because of her gender. And to make things worse, those Muslim
groups have successfully redefined the anti-terrorism campaign as an anti-Islam
drive.
Taking stern action against militant clerics will certainly further
reinforce perceptions among Muslims that Megawati, hailing from the nationalist
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), is anti-Islam.
This certainly does no good for her presidency now or for her re-election
bid in 2004, when the country holds its first direct presidential election.
Economically, the bomb blast will deprive Indonesia of much- needed
foreign-exchange earnings, especially Balinese who count on the tourism
industry for their living. Countries around the world have warned their
citizens to delay indefinitely trips to Indonesia and tour operators worldwide
have also suspended their trips to Indonesia. The US, Australia, and New
Zealand have even encouraged their citizens in Indonesia to leave the country.
Donor countries belonging to the Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI)
have decided to delay their annual meeting, scheduled for this month, until
early next year. Though loans from its member countries have consistently
fallen in the past few years, CGI serves as a barometer for foreign lending
agencies and investors to put their money in the country.
Indeed, if the New York World Trade Center's twin towers were symbols
of economic power, and the Pentagon of military might, Bali was a symbol
of security and peace. The deadly bomb blast has shattered that image,
and peace and tranquillity have vanished from the island.
The blasts have also created suspicions and animosity among ethnic and
religious groups in Bali, once considered the most tolerant and peaceful
place in the crisis-stricken country. Rumors have been circulating in Bali
that a massive sweep would soon be launched against certain ethnic and
religious groups as retaliation for the Bali bombing. While no such sweep
has been launched so far, the rumors reflect the level of distrust the
bombings have created among ethnic groups on the Island of the Gods.
Return To Top October 19, 2002
US jets bomb Waziristan Agency
PESHAWAR: After missile attacks on the US camp in the Urgoon area
of Afghanistan, the US bombers retaliated to target Pakistani tribal areas
of Damasar and Lowar Mandi in North Waziristan Agency.
Reliable sources told The News that on Wednesday night, unknown assailants
targeted the US air base of Urgoon with five missiles, which caused huge
losses to US troops present in the camp. According to tribal and official
sources, after the missile attacks on the US camp at 2 am, two US helicopters
arrived the area and taken the injured and alleged slain troops to some
unknown place. However, it was not confirmed that how many troops were
died and injured in the missile attack.
Later, US fighter planes B-52 were seen while heavily bombarding the
area bordering Damasar situated at distance of 45 kilometres from Miran
Shah, headquarters, North Waziristan Agency.
The area, occupied by paramilitary troops, known as Tuchi Scouts while
for the first time in the half century old history of the country, Pakistan's
regular army has also been deployed there recently after the Bush administration
asked its ally to do so.
Instead of targeting their desired areas in Afghanistan, the US B-52
planes targeted Pakistan's Damasar and Lowara Mandi areas with five missiles.
According to official sources in Miran Shah, these attacks on Pakistan's
tribal areas, have sent a wave of shock among the already charged tribesmen
against US and its allies engaged in their so called war against terrorism
in Afghanistan.
Official sources also told The News that Major Izhar Ahmad Bajwa of
Pakistan Army has collected devices, which were dropped by the US fighter
planes in night. Bajwa was reported to have visited the affected area and
met people.
However, no loss of life was reported due to these missile attacks as
four missile were said to have fell on the area at the distance of 100
meters of Tuchi Scouts camp while the remaining two were fell about 800
meters of the camp.
Despite several attempts by this scribe, none of the officials of political
administration North Waziristan Agency were available for their official
version.
Return To Top October 19, 2002
October 18,
2002
Letter on $13 Oil
I had previously read the report about $13 oil as the U.S goal from
potential regime changes in the Middle East and then saw it repeated at
Orbat.
I live in Houston and the concept does not sound plausible because
President Bush is from Texas and $13 oil is extremely bad for U.S.
domestic oil production. The Texas economy would take an extremely hard
hit and it is difficult to imagine the Bush Administration planning that
type of situation. It is probable that oil in the range from $22 to $28
(maybe $30) is something that the U.S economy (and world economy) has
accepted in various economic scenarios. Bargain oil might be a cure to
the doldrums of the world economy, but have serious doubts about the U.S.
domestic oil industry being sacrificed for that.
Signed, David [Editor's comment. Reader David is, of course, absolutely right. The article, however, is typical of the way a surprisingly large number of non-Americans - and Americans - think. People forget that the US is itself one of the three major oil producers, and that American oil is expensive to extract. US foreign policy always involves a fine balance between the need to keep oil prices up and simultaneously push them down. The Russians do tend to see deep conspiracies everywhere. Washington would have a simple answer to their concerns with respect to Iraqi oil. Come on board with the regime change operation, and you can guarantee your interests are looked after. Moscow would have a simple answer to that: we have been on board, again and again, and all Washington has done is to give our interests about the importance it gives - say - Jamaica. Washington would answer that it holds not just the four aces, but all the cards except for perhaps the 2s and maybe a couple of the 3s, and that a few crumbs are better than nothing. ]
Return To Top October 18, 2002
Election Results Spell Trouble for Pakistan
This article, by Ahmed Rashid was forwarded to us by Ram Narayanan, and seems to have appeared in both the Wall Street Journal and the Far Eastern Economic Review.
THE SUCCESS OF a new alliance of six conservative
Islamic parties in Pakistan's general election on
October 10 may have come as no surprise to military
ruler President Pervaiz Musharraf. In fact, his army
and Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI,
engineered the victory of the fundamentalists like
much else in the polls.
In the past, the military has supported religious
parties as a bulwark against the mainstream political
elite and to help the army carry out its foreign
policies of maintaining hostility towards India,
regaining the mutually disputed territory of Kashmir
and supporting Pashtun allies in southern Afghanistan.
That equation has not changed, despite Musharraf's
need to maintain a strong alliance with the United
States. The religious parties' platform of
anti-Americanism did not deter Musharraf: In fact, it
appears that the army and the ISI sponsored the
religious leaders, or mullahs, to ensure that the West
does not question the need for continued military rule
to contain the religious parties. And by keeping
Kashmir on the boil, the election ensures a
predominant role for the army in the new political
set-up.
"Strategically the military want to hold a red rag up
to the West and say 'Look, West, you need a military
dictatorship because if there is not, then pro-Taliban
parties are going to come to power," opposition
politician and exiled former Prime Minister Benazir
Bhutto told reporters in London.
While the army imposed a raft of obstacles preventing
Bhutto and other potential candidates from the two
largest secular democratic parties from standing in
the elections, the path was cleared for mullahs. For
example, secular politicians were barred from running
if they did not have bachelors' degrees, while mullahs
were only required to have degrees from religious
schools.
The result will be a continuing state of crisis for
Pakistan, beginning with the current hung parliament.
The largest block of seats went to the pro-army
Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam, or PML-Q, with 78
seats. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party took 62 seats
and the alliance of six religious parties, the United
Council of Action (UCA), won a remarkable 50 seats --
the highest for any Islamic grouping since Pakistan's
inception. The opposition faction of the Pakistan
Muslim League led by former Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif won 14 seats. Another 100 candidates will be
chosen from religious minorities and women, bringing
the total to 392 MPs.
The European Union called the election "seriously
flawed," and strongly criticized the army's
interference in the pre-poll electoral process. The EU
raised serious doubts about whether there would be a
real transfer of power from the army to civilians.
In a not-so-surprising contrast the Bush
administration in Washington had little to say about
the election, describing it as "a milestone towards
democracy."
Bush and Musharraf appear to be the only leaders to be
so optimistic. Whether the UCA joins hands with the
PML-Q or remains in opposition, it will pose immense
problems. The UCA will demand greater Islamicization
and changes to the constitution at home while
questioning the country's alliance with the U.S.
Furthermore, Musharraf has in the past described the
religious parties and their militias as the first line
of defence in any war against India. With the hardline
mullahs in parliament, it will be inconceivable that
the next prime minister will be able to hold
meaningful talks with India. The mullahs' victory will
also push to the back burner the pledges made by
Musharraf to reform Pakistan's religious schools,
which have spawned Islamic militancy.
The UCA will certainly control the provincial
governments of Baluchistan and the North West Frontier
Province bordering Afghanistan. This could weaken
Afghanistan's leader, Hamid Karzai, as the UCA leaders
have close links to the Taliban and to renegade
commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Western diplomats say
Hekmatyar is already getting support from Pakistan.
"All of Pakistan's neighbours will see the UCA as a
threat, and that will increase the army's leverage
with the Americans," says Rashed Rehman, editor of the
Frontier Post newspaper in Peshawar.
Return To Top October 18, 2002
October 17,
2002
France Offers Compromise on UN Resolution on Iraq David R. Sands of the
THE WASHINGTON TIMES reports that [extracts]:
France proposed yesterday that the United Nations authorize force if Iraq fails to comply with a resolution requiring that it eliminate its weapons of mass destruction.
The United States and Britain, who have circulated a joint draft, favor a single resolution spelling out the demands on Iraq and authorizing the use of force against Baghdad if Saddam fails to comply. [There appears to be little chance this resolution would pass; thus the significance of the French approach. Editor]
France, one of the five veto-wielding members of the council, has led the push for two resolutions - one spelling out what Iraq must do and a second outlining the consequences in the event of Iraqi defiance.
"The Americans want strong language," said a diplomat, "so fine. The Security Council will decide any measure, including the use of force."
The language surpasses that of the U.S.-British draft, which calls only for member states to use "all necessary means" to enforce U.N. mandates against Iraq.
Passage of a council resolution requires nine "yes" votes from its 15 members and no vetos from its five permanent members - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.
Diplomats said the U.S.-British resolution would not get the majority needed, but that an agreement between Paris and Washington would probably clear the way for full council approval.
"The Americans have given an inch, the French have given an inch," the U.N. diplomat familiar with the backroom negotiating said yesterday. He acknowledged that the two sides "are still this far apart," holding his hands about a dinner plate's width apart.
Hans Blix, the chief U.N. weapons inspector, said after briefing the council yesterday that his team would not return to Iraq, where they have been barred since 1998, until a new resolution is approved.
Return To Top October 17, 2002
Borzou Daragahi writes in the
THE WASHINGTON TIMES [Extracts]:
DOHUK, Iraq - Soldiers of the Kurdistan army march in circles to martial music on a cracked, weed-choked asphalt parade ground. The band can't keep a beat, and the cymbal is cracked and bent. But the soldiers can't help but smile at the handful of visitors here to watch.
They may be poorly trained, ill-equipped and upset at receiving little or no help from the United States, but they have a front-row view of Saddam Hussein's war preparations.
Even the Kurds' U.S.-made camouflage uniforms were bought on the open market.
"They haven't given us anything," says Babekir Zebari, commander of the army in the Kurdish Iraqi province of Dohuk. "And there has been no communication or any word." Unlike the neighboring countries, "Kurdistan" has no draft, and military service is voluntary.
The combined Kurdish forces total 75,000 men (and a few women) and control three of Iraq's 18 provinces in an area populated by 3.5 million of Iraq's 22 million inhabitants.
The Kurds fought Baghdad on the ground for most of the 20th century.
The Iraqi positions today are just a few hundred yards from the Kurdish villages, a clear violation of the three-mile U.N.-mandated demilitarized zone along the 36th Parallel separating northern Iraq from the rest of the country.
The Kurds say Saddam has pulled back his forces from the front toward the center of Iraq, fortifying positions around the oil-rich cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, which the Kurds claim.
"Lately, it seems [the Iraqis] don't know what they're doing," said Barzan Ahmad, a Kurdish intelligence officer stationed near the city of Kalak, near the Iraqi front. "Activity has increased. They keep moving their heavy equipment back and forth. Occasionally they fire their weapons into the air."
Disappointed by their experience in Afghanistan - where ethnic Tajik forces of the Northern Alliance occupied the capital, Kabul, despite U.S. orders not to - American commanders appear to be shying away from a battle plan that relies on an ethnic minority as a ground force.
Washington also faces the prospect of upsetting Turkey, which is home to U.S. military bases needed for an air assault on Baghdad.
Return To Top October 17, 2002
US Anti-Missile Test Successful
From the WASHINGTON TIMES:
The latest test of America's missile-defense system was a success Monday night, as an interceptor rocket destroyed a Minuteman II missile high above the Pacific Ocean. It was the seventh test for the Missile Defense Agency and the fourth consecutive success, said Lt. Col. Rick Lehner, a spokesman for the agency in Washington. Of the seven tests, five have succeeded.
The modified Minuteman II, carrying a mock warhead and an unspecified number of decoys, was launched from the California base at 7 p.m. Monday, sent on a 4,800-mile path toward the Kwajalein atoll in the Marshall Islands.
At 7:22 p.m., an interceptor missile was launched from the Kwajalein atoll, and it hit the Minuteman six minutes later.
"It directly collided with the Minuteman," Col. Lehner said.
Sensors aboard the kill vehicle were able to successfully select the warhead from among five objects in the target area, including three decoys, Pentagon officials said.
When President Reagan proposed building a national missile-defense system two decades ago, critics scoffed and dubbed the idea "star wars." But the concept gained momentum recently with the Bush administration's decision to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which had banned such systems.
Withdrawing from the ABM Treaty meant the United States was for the first time able to use a Navy Aegis destroyer, the USS John Paul Jones, in the missile tests. The ship was positioned "somewhere between Hawaii and California" and used its SPY-1 radar system to track the warhead, according to Pentagon officials.
"It's a very valuable addition," Col. Lehner said. "Possibly in the future we can incorporate that radar in the missile-defense system. It gives us an alternative we could not test under the ABM Treaty."
Construction is under way in Alaska on a simple version of the system, which the administration hopes to complete by fall 2004.
Return To Top October 17, 2002
October 16,
2002
Iranians reject anti-US policy From the Jang of Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD: Reports emanating from Iran indicate that some 75% of the total population of Tehran reject policy of hostility with the United States and support normalisation of relations with Washington.
According to a recently-conducted survey, the residents of Tehran have asked the Iranian government to better its relations with the USA and readjust its stance on US-Iran relations in the light of changed scenario.
The survey is also reflective of the fact that there existed a gap between the common Iranians and clergy who apparently not only opposes the relations with US rather have banned (both print/electronic media) to print or broadcast anything in favour of dialogue with Washington. Meanwhile, reports also indicate that during a meeting with US congressional members, Kharazai assured them that Islamic Republic of Iran would not oppose the US-led attack over Iraq.
Furthermore, the government spokesman has also confirmed that Iranian government was ready and willing to re-open dialogue with the US administration. Moreover, in the backdrop of the Kharazai's meeting in New York with Jack Straw, the later discussed normalisation of Washington - Tehran relations during his recent visit to Tehran.
Return To Top October 16, 2002
Iraqi War Price $13 per Barrel
Hong Kong's online newspaper Asia Times, one of the key Internet editions in Asia, informs that the war against Iraq will cost 13 dollars per barrel. It is also said that Russia's economic interests will be damaged even more than forecasted, which is why the Russian leadership is unlikely to approve of any hostilities against Iraq.
Asia Times forecasts that, following the overthrow of the Iraqi government, the USA will launch a similar war to establish American control over Iran, which will maintain stable and low oil prices.
The newspaper informs with reference to "a Moscow politician who recently visited the USA" that officials from the US State Department reported the price that the US Administration wants to maintain: 13 dollars per barrel.
Russian Minister of Energy Igor Yusufov said during his visit to the USA at the Russia-America Houston Summit that Russia would like the price of oil to be within the limits of 20-25 dollars per barrel. President of Russia's Yukos oil company Mikhail Khodorkovsky informed at a recent investment conference in New York that 14 dollars per barrel was the lowest possible limit his company can withstand.
If the information from the Asia Times is true, the consequences of the US war against Iraq might be even worse than the cessation of Russian oil exports to the US market. Russian oil exports will no longer be needed, and Russia will suffer deadly losses from the decline in oil prices.
In this case, the intentions of Russian oil companies to enter the NY Stock Exchange with a view to abruptly increase their worth will be frustrated. This means that American investors, who pay little attention to the Russian energy sector under the present-day high prices, will hardly like to invest in long-term projects with a vague prospect of return under conditions of unprecedented low prices.
The online newspaper informs that "no matter how the USA estimates the cost of Russia's interests in Iraq, and it doesn't matter to what extent the actions of the US administration can be unpredictable and unreliable; the price Russia's economy is to pay for the landslide of oil prices will be much higher than predicted. It is reported that no extraordinary measures designed to save the Russian energy sector will help if Bush overthrows Saddam and lowers price of oil."
Return To Top October 16, 2002
Indonesia is considering an emergency anti-terrorism decree which would endow police with radical new powers following a devastating car bomb attack on the holiday island of Bali. It is thought that the decree would allow police to detain people without any evidence of a crime as part of a major crackdown on radical Islamic groups.
The country is under immense international pressure to find those responsible for Saturday's bomb blast outside a packed nightclub which killed nearly 200 people - mostly young Western travellers.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell stepped up the pressure on Tuesday, warning the country that it had to act against the groups which Washington believes are linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network.
The government of Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri has in the past been criticised for failing to take action to combat the threat of terrorism.
"We can see now that you are not exempt from this, you cannot pretend it does not exist in your country," said Mr Powell. "I hope this will reinforce Indonesian determination to deal with this kind of threat."
Earlier, Bali police detained for questioning two Indonesian men, saying they had found the identity card of one of them in the vicinity of the blast.
Indonesian police chief Da'i Bachtiar said his team were currently checking the alibis and "other information" provided by the two detainees, and that nothing had been "finalised".
Police say they have also found traces of plastic explosive at the bomb scene - suggesting a sophisticated operation.
Several countries - including Indonesia itself - have pointed to the possible involvement of Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, held responsible for the attacks last year on New York and Washington, in Saturday's blast.
But the BBC's Richard Galpin in Jakarta says that President Megawati, leader of the world's most populous Muslim country, cannot appear to be caving in to international pressure for a general crack down on radical Islamic groups. If she does go ahead with the emergency decree, our correspondent says, she will have to be absolutely sure that she is targeting the right people.
Despite the strong words from the US, the foreign minister of Australia - where many of the victims are thought to be from - has said he does not want to get into a game of international criticism of Indonesia over its efforts to deal with terrorism.
Suspicion has fallen on a radical Islamic group in Indonesia, Jemaah Islamiah. The Australian Prime Minister said his country will call on the UN to list Jemaah Islamiah as a terrorist organisation, and on Tuesday UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said he was considering a ban on the group.
However, in an interview with the BBC, the group's alleged leader Abu Bakar Bashir denied Jemaah Islamiah or al-Qaeda were to blame for the attack.
Return To Top October 16, 2002
Letter from Mr. John Larsen Your update in Analysis for Australia makes chilling reading. The bombing in Bali must have happened just hours after. At this stage, it appears the majority of the 190 odd dead will be Australians. Whether we were targeted specifically is hard to say. Frankly, I believe our support for the US anti terrorism war is generally unknown in the wider world. We are such a small country and our contribution to date so meager that I'd be surprised if it warranted retribution ahead of say Britain. It would appear that it was Westerners in general, conveniently located amongst the area's extremists that were the target. If the casualties mount as expected this will be Australia's deadliest day since World War II.
Return To Top October 15, 2002
Oped by Isabel Hilton Elections, as General Pervez Musharraf knows, can be unpredictable things. That is why he took such pains to ensure that yesterday's elections in Pakistan - the first since he seized power three years ago - produced no unpleasant surprises.
He has spared no effort to ensure that no civilian leader could be elected to challenge his power. Both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto - Pakistan's two most popular politicians, despite their dubious records - were banned from standing. And just in case, he has sewn up power in Pakistan so completely that it hardly matters who wins at the polls. So far so good.
But the election result that has given Musharraf a nasty surprise is not in Pakistan but in Kashmir. There the Indian government also had something to prove - that after more than 50 years of rigging the polls, they were prepared, at last, to conduct an honest election in that part of Kashmir it controls. And this was borne out by the astonishing news that Omar Abdullah, leader of Kashmir's pro-India ruling party the National Congress, has lost his seat.
Abdullah is not only Delhi's man in Kashmir. He is the third generation of Kashmir's foremost political dynasty, grandson of the legendary Lion of Kashmir, Sheikh Abdullah, imprisoned for many years for challenging India's rule, and son of Farouk Abdullah, who has cheerfully done Delhi's bidding as chief minister in Kashmir. That Delhi should have permitted the suffering Kashmiris to unseat such a crown prince wins them propaganda points.
Abdullah's defeat does not render the Kashmir elections perfect: the parties most likely to win in the disputed Kashmir Valley - the members of the all-party Hurriyat conference - refused to stand on the not unreasonable grounds that they had been cheated once too often. But the Abdullah result will add much-needed credibility to India's offer to negotiate both with the Hurriyat and with the militants.
Why should General Musharraf care about the defeat of a man he sees as Delhi's poodle? Because it will both weaken Pakistan's case on Kashmir and point up the flaws in Musharraf's own electoral exercise.
When Musharraf took power - with the user-friendly title of chief executive - he promised an end to corruption and a swift return to democracy. It was hardly the first time an incoming military dictator had made those promises, but the people seemed willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
The anti-corruption campaign, though, ran into the sand after barely a year when it came too close to the inflated bank accounts of the military. As for the swift return to democracy, suspicions that Musharraf was afflicted by a creeping sense of destiny were confirmed when he assumed the title of president, then staged a referendum to give himself five more years in the post. Despite the manifest indifference of the electorate, the referendum result was declared a resounding victory. It only needed a new constitution to complete the window dressing.
The last military dictator in Pakistan to stage a similar exercise was the late General Zia-ul Haq, a man more adept in many ways at managing Pakistan's competing power centres than Musharraf. Zia's grip on power was assisted by the fact that he was useful to the US in mounting and running the jihad in Afghanistan. Musharraf is useful to the US in his willingness to address the legacy of that misconceived exercise.
But at home, outside the armed forces, he is now almost friendless. In an attempt to bring stability to a country plagued by military coups, he gave the army so much constitutional power that coups were no longer necessary. General Musharraf can dismiss any government that is elected in Pakistan this week, through his control of the new - and permanent - national security council. There is no sign of him loosening his grip on the armed forces, or of vacating the presidential chair, but whether this will add up to stability is another question.
When General Musharraf was a much younger man, he wrote a thesis in London on the arms race on the sub-continent. In it, he pointed out that development in both India and Pakistan was hopelessly impeded by the huge sums spent on defence, justified by their continuing hostility over Kashmir. History, sadly, suggests that those tensions have been much worse whenever there has been military rule in Pakistan. Only a civilian can change Pakistan's policy on Kashmir - and only a civilian whose power is unchallenged by the military.
Long-term stability in Pakistan will not be achieved by military rule, however it is disguised. It might be achieved by a credible democracy that was prepared to divert funds from the military to education, health and development. The young Musharraf knew that. It is a lesson that the Musharraf of today has forgotten.
Return To Top October 15, 2002
India to cut troops in held Kashmir: analysts
Story from the Jang of Pakistan
NEW DELHI: India is likely to pull back some troops from its mountainous Kashmiri frontier with Pakistan to the north, while keeping defences high along its western desert border, analysts said Monday.
Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani announced on Sunday that India's National Security Council advisory board was to meet on Wednesday to review the deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops. "There is no surprise in Advani's announcement as a de-escalation of troops was on the cards after the (held) Kashmir elections," said Rahul Bedi, an expert from Jane's Defence Weekly.
Defence Minister George Fernandes had repeatedly said the troops would remain in held Kashmir at least until the end of elections. "However, India is unhappy with the fact that there has been no let-up in militant activity on the ground as borne out by the violence seen during the elections," Bedi added.
Other analysts believe India would now begin withdrawing troops from held Kashmir to show its commitment to de-escalating tensions with Pakistan. They also pointed out that with winter starting to set in, the ability of militants to use mountain routes to infiltrate would be reduced, enabling a lesser deployment of those trying to keep them out.
Officials in Jodhpur in the desert state of Rajasthan said the attack on a temple and upcoming polls in Gujarat would ensure the army "kept a vigil" on India's 1,050-kilometre western border with Pakistan. "The army is likely to stay put (along the western border).
While reviewing troop deployment the security council has to factor in the terrorist attack on the Akshardham temple," said a senior army official. "These terrorist attacks could increase with elections in Gujarat."
Troop reduction along India's western border looks highly unlikely as the army has planned military exercises in Rajasthan in November to involve thousands of combat troops. An army spokesman told AFP the army would conduct war games with support from the air force in Rajasthan's Thar Desert but would remain 90 to 150 kilometres from the Pakistan border. "India is planning to conduct the fourth phase of its military exercises code named Operation Parakram (Bravery) in November for 10 days," said the spokesman.
"The war games will test some of the army divisions deployed along the border with Pakistan since December. Leave is being sanctioned for soldiers and officers in small batches but they have to report back for duty on the border."
Return To Top October 15, 2002
October 14,
2002
China versus India: A Letter from R. Narayanan We depart from our usual focus on immediate news with a letter Mr. Ram Narayanan sent to several people on his list, along with the article that provoked him to comment.
The Letter
What explain's China's reverberating success and India's reverberating failure
as a world supplier of manufactured goods?
China, the world's fourth-largest industrial producer behind the United States,
Japan and Germany, makes:
-- more than 50% of the world's cameras;
-- 30% of the world's air-conditioners and televisions;
-- 25% of the world's washing machines;
-- nearly 20% of all refrigerators.
Here are more excerpts from the FAR EASTERN ECONOMIC REVIEW article of October
17, 2002:
And while China for decades has sent mostly low-end products like textiles and
toys to the U.S., it's now starting to sell more sophisticated goods to American
consumers, like computers and DVDs. In June, exports from China of electronic
products to the U.S. hit $1.2 billion, up 12.3% from May. China's hi-tech
exports to the U.S. are now growing faster than any other export, up 47% in the
first seven months of this year from a year earlier.
"China's rise as a manufacturing base is going to have the same kind of impact
on the world that the industrialization of the U.S. had--perhaps even bigger,"
says Andy Xie, an economist with Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.
Since 1996, Chinese export prices have slid 15%, according to BCA Research, a
Montreal market-research firm.
Driving all this is a jumble of forces that have spawned one world's most
competitive markets. A tidal wave of foreign investment worth more than $600
billion over the last two decades has taught the country some of the most modern
manufacturing techniques. A ferocious appetite for foreign technology has
powered productivity gains across the economy, while a nationwide
entrepreneurial zeal has sprouted from the shambles of its once centrally
planned system.
China's impact on world prices and corporate strategies is likely to increase.
Its entrance into the World Trade Organization is breeding lean and
hyper-competitive private Chinese companies turning their sights overseas to
alleviate price pressure at home.
Would Indian politicians, bureaucrats and corporate heavy weights care to read
the following article?
At least NOW would Indian politicians and bureaucrats start to think in terms of
discarding their self-serving demeanor that's destroying the nation, refocus
their priorities and work unitedly with single minded determination to get on
with the job of galvanizing the billion strong talented nation on the path of
growth?
I am NOT optimistic. I think the Chinese will continue to move up and up. India,
while making progress in software and a few other hightech and non-hightech
service areas, will continue to slide, relative to China.
Ram Narayanan
The article is from the Far Eastern Economic Review.
Return To Top October 14, 2002
October 13,
2002
Iraq: With Moscow Standing Firm, Will U.S. Go It
Alone?
Iraq: With Moscow Standing Firm, Will U.S.
Go It Alone?
British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Russian President Vladimir Putin
went out of their way to demonstrate cordiality during Blair's Oct. 10-11
visit to Moscow. But the message Blair brings back to U.S. President George
Bush is that Russia is unlikely to support a U.N. Security Council resolution
authorizing a war against Iraq.
With France and China, the other two permanent Security Council members,
objecting to such a resolution as well, the best Washington likely can
hope for during voting in the United Nations next week is a French-authored
two-resolution compromise. Under this plan, one resolution would set out
conditions for Iraqi cooperation with weapons inspectors and a second would
threaten force if those conditions are not met.
But since the first resolution is not as tough as Washington wants,
the Bush administration -- determined to attack Iraq and with Congress
on its side -- may opt for unilateral action in the end.
During a press conference following the meeting with Blair, Putin suggested
a shift in Russia's position on Iraq when he said, "I do not rule out reaching
a joint position, including a U.N. resolution," the BBC reported. But this
shift is not nearly as dramatic as it should be for Washington to get Security
Council approval for an attack on Iraq. Putin also repeated that there
are no legal grounds for military action against Baghdad and that Russia
"does not have in its possession any trustworthy data which would support
the existence of nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction
in Iraq."
Putin's statements suggest Russia probably will support the French compromise.
And although Moscow is not likely to veto a U.S.-British war resolution,
Russia's vote probably would help push the French measure through -- since
China, as well as a majority of the 10 non-permanent council members, also
are likely to support France. This might have turned another way had Moscow
given Blair support for force against Hussein.
An hour or so after the talks ended, Russia's deputy foreign minister
said what Putin likely did not want to, so as not to offend Blair: "The
U.S. draft resolution cannot be accepted as a basis for a future U.N. Security
Council resolution on Iraq, as it contains clearly unfulfillable demands."
Moscow's position will encourage France, China and other Council members
to further resist U.S. plans to attack Iraq. Had Moscow given in, Paris
and Beijing would find it much more difficult to resist U.S. pressure,
but since Moscow still opposes the use of force and the French resolutions
will not subject Iraq to the kind of conditions that the United States
wants, Washington still could decide to sidestep the United Nations altogether.
Return To Top October 13, 2002
War on Iraq pays no Russian dividend
MOSCOW - Russian oil producers, pipelines and ports are certain
to be badly hit if the United States forces a regime change in Iraq, and
if world oil prices fall sharply. And that's only scratching the surface
of the threat to the Russian economy from an American war against Saddam
Hussein, and all that would follow.
Understanding this should be an antidote to a spate of recent reports
in the Anglo-American press. These claim that, behind the curtain of the
United Nations Security Council, the Russian government is negotiating
a secret deal with the US to trade Moscow's concession for war to start,
for Washington's guarantee to secure Russian oil company concessions in
Iraq, or to pay a matching indemnity. No matter how the value of Russia's
interests in Iraq may be totted up, and never mind how unreliable and unpredictable
Bush administration undertakings are understood to be, the cost to the
Russian economy of a collapse of the oil price is certain to be greater
than any promised indemnity.
The Russian parliament has so far failed to analyze and debate this.
But already Russia's oilmen have begun to admit it. Mikhail Khodorkovsky,
chief executive of Yukos, the second largest of Russia's oil producers,
told an investor conference in New York last Friday that until now oilfield
and refinery output in Russia had been growing faster than the country's
transport infrastructure had been able to manage. This is why, he said,
Yukos was publicly backing massive investment on new export routes to China,
and the Mediterranean through Croatia and Murmansk.
Asked what he thinks may happen to those plans if the US takes military
action to topple Saddam, Khodorkovsky said his view was bearish, but that
Yukos was prepared for a fall of oil prices to $14 per barrel. He claimed
that Yukos could withstand even lower prices, but added that if there were
a sharp decline of oil prices, spending on Russian oilfield development
would slow, and on transport infrastructure as well. Khodorkovsky didn't
say it, but LUKoil, the biggest of Russia's oil producers, is much more
vulnerable than Yukos.
A Russian foreign policy maker said this week in Moscow that he had
been told by State Department officials recently that US policy is to establish
and hold an oil price of $13 per barrel. Everyone in the oil business understands
that if this is true, and if the policy succeeds, the much publicized monthly
shipments of Russian oil to Houston, which began in July, are bound to
stop abruptly; losses set in at around a price of $20 per barrel.
If oil this cheap is indeed a US objective, then a regime change in
Iraq, possibly to be followed by regime change in Iran, and unremitting
pressure on Saudi Arabia, look to be the means that the Bush administration
will pursue, overriding whatever coziness that has developed between Presidents
George W Bush and Vladimir Putin.
The immediate reason that US energy officials have been courting the
Russian oil majors is that the Bush administration wants them to lobby
the Kremlin for support of the attack on Iraq. The reason the Russian majors
want to cozy up to the Americans is that they would like to list their
shares on the New York Stock Exchange and sell off minority blocs of stock
to US investors, raising the share price to a multiple of the current level,
and adding vastly to the wealth of the Russians, like Khodorkovsky, who
control the companies. TNK has been negotiating quietly to sell a billion-dollar
stake to Chevron-Texaco and others. Yukos was planning to list in New York
by December, but has now postponed the move. That relieves Khodorkovsky
of some of the strain he might otherwise be feeling between his public
relations objectives in New York, and his appreciation of the realities
in Moscow.
The Russian oil majors would also like to attract American funds for
investments that are risky, and take longer than a year to pay back, such
as new pipelines, refineries, oil ports, even tankers and the icebreakers
to assist them. As Khodorkovsky has now acknowledged, the post-Saddam oil
price would destroy the rate of return for virtually all those projects,
deterring all investment. The multiplier effect for the Russian steel,
pipe, and machine-building industries would carry the negative impact deep
into the heartland of the economy.
For the time being, it is necessary to make hay while the sun shines.
The major Russian outlets for oil exports say that they are expanding as
fast as they can. The St Petersburg oil terminal, for example, the leading
outlet for refined oil products, says that it has expanded its throughput
capacity by 33 percent this year, and is planning to double this again
by 2005. Transneft has begun laying new pipes for transporting double the
volume of crude oil that Primorsk, the new crude oil outlet in the Leningrad
region, can export. These are costly but necessary measures for the oil
economy to grow in future. But they won't suffice, nothing will suffice,
if Bush drives Saddam and the oil price into the ground.
Return To Top October 13, 2002
'Kuchmagate' and Iraq
On 20 September, US President George W Bush unveiled the new US national
security strategy. It calls for a first strike against rogue states that
possess weapons of mass destruction and strive to "acquire dangerous technologies".
Three days later, Washington accused Ukraine of violating UN sanctions
against Iraq by selling it four sophisticated Kolchuga radar system units.
At the centre of the Iraqi arms scandal stand the hundreds of hours
of tapes made illicitly in the office of Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma
by security guard Mykola Melnychenko. The portion of the tapes dealing
with Iraq was only released in March on the eve of the Ukrainian elections.
The existence of the tape of the Iraqi radar sale was reported earlier
in the year but at that stage the US still did not publicly back up the
accusations. In March, shortly before the Iraq allegations surfaced, Valeriy
Malyev, head of the arms export company Ukrspetseksport, died in a mysterious
car accident.
The tape, which has been authenticated by the FBI, is of a conversation
between Kuchma, Malyev, and then Security Service chief Leonid Derkach
(who is accused of other illegal arms sales) which took place in July 2000.
In April 1999, US intelligence sources discovered that Ukraine had signed
a secret agreement for military co-operation with Iraq in November 1998.
In January 1999, a Ukrainian delegation led by a deputy minister visited
Iraq. During the first stage of the agreement equipment identified for
customs as 'agricultural' was sent to Iraq.
On the Melnychenko tape of the July 2000 meeting, Kuchma is heard giving
the go ahead to sell four Kolchuga units to Iraq for $100 million. Melnychenko
claims to know the name of a "high-ranking Russian official" who was also
alleged to be present. If this turns out to be true, the US-Russian alliance
against international terrorism could come under serious strain.
The scenario of events after the meeting follows a clear pattern that
seems to confirm the Kolchuga units were indeed dispatched to Iraq. Only
four days after the conversation, the government released the Kolchuga
system from any export restrictions. On 9 October 2000, an agreement on
trade and scientific and technical co-operation was signed with Iraq. This
was ratified by the Ukrainian parliament on 15 November 2001.
After recent US pressure, Ukraine's Security Service chief Volodymyr
Radchenko conceded that the conversation had occurred but denied that the
sale had actually gone ahead.
Return To Top October 13, 2002
Australia on high terror alert
Authorities are on high alert after the United States warned Australia
of a possible threat by terrorists to blow up power stations and electrical
transmission lines.
The warning, relayed by Washington to federal Attorney-General Daryl
Williams, was received by several countries.
But Mr Williams said while there was no specific information about a
strike on Australian soil, no country could afford to be complacent.
A public statement by alleged terror mastermind Osama bin Laden on October
6 could foreshadow another major terrorist attack, he said.
"Recent statements by al-Qaeda raise concerns about the possibility
of another major terrorist attack and are another reminder that we cannot
be complacent and are not immune to such threats," Mr Williams said.
The attorney-general said authorities remained on high alert and the
government had advised power and energy companies of the threat.
"On receipt of the information the usual steps that are taken in this
sort of circumstance were taken and there was a meeting of the Security
Incident Task Force as soon as it could be had," Mr Williams said.
"We have of course advised the state and territory authorities and they
have had the role of informing those agencies that are involved in energy
production and transmission infrastructure."
"We're trying not to be alarmist," Mr Williams said.
"I think it's important that the Australian public understands Australia
is not immune from the possibility of terrorist attack."
He also said the arrest in Singapore of Islamic fundamentalists targeting
the Australian High Commission and recent threats against the embassy in
East Timor highlighted the fact Australia was not immune from attack.
Prime Minister John Howard earlier this week said he had not received
any evidence in recent months suggesting the risk of terrorism was greater.
Allegations al-Qaeda cells had been tasked to enter Australia emerged
when terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna urged the government to step up anti-
terrorism efforts.
Mr Gunaratna, the author of the book Inside al-Qaeda, said Australia
featured on the al-Qaeda target list.
Labor foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd said Prime Minister John
Howard should make a statement to parliament outlining the full nature
of the terrorist threat to Australia.
"This warning about power stations comes on top of a number of recent
warnings, firstly about al-Qaeda operatives trying to target Australia
and secondly, from the defence minister (Robert Hill) himself, a statement
the other day that there were still several Australian al-Qaeda operatives
unaccounted for," he said.
Return To Top October 13, 2002
Militants urge EU to reject 'terrorist' tag
on CPP
Two militant groups on Saturday urged the members of the European parliament
to turn down requests by the United States for it to declare the Communist
Party of the Philippines a foreign terrorist organization.
"In the name of peace ... we ask the European community to uphold the
sovereign rights of their people and resist pressures from the United States
to consider the CPP as a foreign terrorist group," said the peasant group
Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya ng Pilipinas and its network
Nnara-Youth.
Foreign Affairs Secretary Blas Ople will head the team that will be
composed of the members of the government peace panel and presidential
adviser Silvestre Afable.
Gerry Albert-Corpuz, Pamalakaya information officer, said the move could
further impede peace efforts between the government and communist negotiators.
Peace talks between the government and the communist umbrella organization,
the National Democratic Front, have been suspended since last year.
"The government has been misleading foreign states about the real situation
in the country ... what it should do instead is to exert efforts to resume
the talks and arrive at a comprehensive agreement with the NDF," Corpuz
said.
Return To Top October 13, 2002
October 11,
2002 Zinni: Israeli retaliation to an Iraqi attack would
be 'disastrous'
Zinni: Israeli retaliation to an Iraqi attack
would be 'disastrous'
Middle East envoy Anthony Zinni said Thursday that Israeli involvement
in any war with Iraq could have "catastrophic" consequences and that he
does not think the US could persuade Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to refrain
from responding to any Iraqi attack.
Sharon has said that Israel reserves the right to defend itself but
that a response would not necessarily be automatic.
Zinni told the Middle East Institute's 56th annual conference that he
does not believe the US needs to make war on Iraq now and that the US has
several more pressing problems to contend with, including the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. It is a point he has made repeatedly recently.
Zinni is still US special envoy to the Middle East, although he has
not visited the region on official business since June; he is more busy
these days trying to defuse tensions in Indonesia. After speaking Thursday
morning, he met with US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
William Burns at the State Department.
Zinni listed 10 conditions for a successful military campaign against
Iraq. One condition, he said, was that Israel must sit it out. Asked what
Israel should do if it is attacked with non-conventional weapons, Zinni
said every country has a right to defend itself, but that the consequences
would be grim if Israel does so.
"I was in Israel when the Scuds came in the last Gulf War. I doubt seriously
that we're going to be able to convince the [Israeli] leadership to sit
it out if that occurs again. If weapons of mass destruction are used in
any way, even in a way that doesn't generate a lot of casualties, I think
it will be tremendously explosive.
"And the reaction will play into the hands of extremists that will want
to draw out that kind of response. And it will be I think catastrophic
for the entire region when it happens." Zinni said that Saddam Hussein
could be contained and that war is unnecessary.
"I'm not convinced we need to do this now. I am convinced we need to
deal with Saddam down the road. But I think that the timing is difficult
because of the conditions in the region, all the other events that are
going on. I believe that he is deterrable and containable at this moment,"
he said.
"My personal view, and it's just personal, is I think this isn't [priority]
number one. It's maybe six or seven. And the affordability line needs to
be drawn around five," he said.
Higher priorities for the US, Zinni said, include reviving the Middle
East peace process, working with Iranian reformers, supporting Afghanistan,
patching up relations with Middle Eastern allies, "and fifth is to connect
with the people, reconnect. We are talking past each other."
He predicted Saudi Arabia would support a US attack if a strong case
is made and a UN Security Council resolution passes. And he suggested that
the Bush administration has underestimated the difficulties of creating
a stable political system after a war in Iraq. He also said the war needs
to be short if it is to be successful.
"There's no doubt that any coalition or any forces we put in would prevail.
But you know, war is never predictable... We [generals] can give you a
general idea of how we feel, based on analysis, things might turn out.
But in war, shit happens and it happens often." "If this war drags on,
if the combat drags on, it's going to become messy," the former US Marine
general said.
Return To Top October 12, 2002
Saudi Arabia warns of inciting terrorists
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud,
said Thursday that an attack on Iraq by the United States would anger the
Arab world and spawn more terrorism.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Saud pointed to an attack
this week in Kuwait -- in which two gunmen killed a U.S. Marine -- and
said more like it would follow if military action were launched against
Iraq without destroying terrorist groups first.
The gunmen, who were shot dead, were "connected to terrorists," said
Saud. "You're adding something new for the terrorists to target in doing
this (attacking Iraq) before you finish the war on terrorism."
Asked whether he believed Saddam has weapons of mass destruction, Saud
said: "I think the threat is there and ... the way to remove that threat
is to have the inspectors back to do their job."
The U.N. Security Council is debating whether to adopt a new resolution
to toughen weapons inspections after Iraq agreed to allow inspections to
resume after nearly four years. Washington also wants to include a threat
of force if Baghdad does not comply.
Saud said that if a new resolution authorizes force under Chapter 7
of the U.N. Charter, "then every country is obligated to cooperate with
the United Nations in this."
When asked if Saudi Arabia would send a clear "no" to the United Nations
if asked for the use of its territory in a strike against Iraq, Saud said:
"We are not going to join in the military action, but if the United Nations
takes a decision in this, we will cooperate with it."
"We will cooperate with the United Nations actions like every other
country, (but) not as a member of the forces that will be undertaking missions
for the United Nations," he added.
He noted that emotions in the Arab world already are running strong
against U.S. policy in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which Arabs generally
consider biased.
"Terrorists will be able to utilize the war on Iraq to add to the number
of issues they will raise against the United States and the West," the
prince said.
"Undoubtedly al-Qaida's efforts have been affected by the war on it
so far," he said. "But lately, since the talk about an attack on Iraq,
we have seen a rise (in attacks). ... This bodes ill."
Return To Top October 12, 2002
US soldier shoots at Kuwaiti car
WASHINGTON/KUWAIT, 10 October - A US soldier in a military vehicle shot
at a civilian vehicle in
The military vehicle, a Humvee, was overtaken by the civilian car on
Kuwait’s Highway 80 north of Camp Doha around 1600 GMT, said the official.
"As the car pulled in front, one of its occupants drew a weapon and pointed
it at the occupants of the Humvee," the official said. "At this point,
the occupants of the Humvee shot and hit the hood of the civilian vehicle,
forcing it off the road," the official said. The Humvee continued on its
way without stopping.
Earlier, Kuwait said that it had arrested a number of people suspected
of aiding two Kuwaitis who killed the Marine and wounded another on Tuesday.
The attackers, killed by the Marines, were buried in Kuwait yesterday in
what witnesses said turned into an anti-Western rally amid loud chants
of "Allahu Akbar".
"There are numerous people under arrest," Kuwaiti Minister of State
for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammad Al-Salem Al-Sabah told reporters. He
added "the numbers are changing by the minute".
The two Kuwaitis approached the Marines in a pick-up truck on Tuesday,
stepped out of the vehicle and opened fire on troops during an annual military
exercise on the Kuwaiti island of Failaka in the Gulf. Marines killed the
two assailants after they had sped away in the truck.
The Al-Watan newspaper said that the two men had rented the pick-up
from a Bangladeshi living on the island and that they had hidden in a mosque
on the island before carrying out the attack.
The Pentagon identified the dead Marine as Lance-Corporal Antonio Sledd,
20, of Hillsborough, Fla.
Kuwait named the dead attackers as cousins Anas Ahmad Ibrahim Abdel-Rehim
Al-Kandari, born in 1981, and Jassem Hamad Mubarak Salem Al-Hajri, born
in 1976.
Writer Mohammad Al-Mulafi, who attended the burial of the two Kuwaitis,
said that some mourners chased away news photographers at the scene. Mulafi
quoted a man, addressing hundreds of people at the burial, as saying that
"the Jews and Christians must exit from the peninsula of the Arabs" and
that "what the attackers did was their duty".
Mulafi said he knew the men who attacked the Marines and believed they
were motivated by opposition to a new US law requiring government documents
to state that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. Mulafi said one of the
attackers called him after President George W. Bush signed the law this
month and said: "I believe that fighting the Americans is more of a priority
than fighting the Israelis." A Western diplomat said the apparent motive
was credible. The Interior Ministry did not say if Tuesday’s attackers
were militants, but security sources said they were probably linked to
anti-American Islamic groups.
Return To Top October 12, 2002
On TV, Castro denies sabotaging antiterror
effort
The United States is lying when it charges Cuba is deliberately trying
to sabotage antiterrorist efforts and is involved in the production of
bioweapons, President Fidel Castro tells ABC's Barbara Walters in an interview
to be broadcast tonight.
Castro also says the Cuban Missile Crisis was the result of Soviet Premier
Nikita Khrushchev's lies -- not Castro's willingness to participate.
And he says organizers of an unprecedented petition drive for democratic
reforms on the island will receive a response from the Cuban government
``in due course.''
Those are among the highlights of the Walters interview with Castro,
which will air at 10 p.m. today on ABC's 20/20.
The taped interview is the first lengthy televised exchange with Castro
since Walters last spoke with him in 1977.
It is being aired as Cuba marks the 40th anniversary of the Cuban Missile
Crisis with a conference in Havana that includes key members of former
President John F. Kennedy's administration.
Walters peppers Castro with a variety of questions that begin with Cuba's
alleged involvement with terrorism and ends with a synopsis of the Elián
González saga and its effect on U.S.-Cuba relations.
On the U.S. allegations that Cuba has tried to sabotage antiterrorist
efforts by providing false leads and that scientists are experimenting
with the production of biological weapons, Castro said, ``all those accusations
are absolute lies.''
Castro tells Walters that Cuba has never taken aggressive action toward
the United States and that ``not one drop of American blood has been shed
by this government.''
Walters also asks Castro what important new information has been gained
from the release of classified information on the Cuban Missile Crisis,
which erupted in mid-October 1962 when Kennedy learned that there were
Soviet nuclear warheads in Cuba.
''We would not have accepted the missiles if they had said it was related
to the balance of power,'' Castro said, adding that Khrushchev ''misled
Kennedy'' and also ``lied to Cuba.''
In the interview, Castro also briefly discusses the Varela Project,
an initiative that calls for a referendum on sweeping democratic reforms.
Castro acknowledged that the Cuban Constitution guarantees citizens a right
to gather signatures but he stopped short of legitimizing the unprecedented
effort.
''Yes, they have the right to present a petition but not to change the
constitution,'' Castro said. ``Anyone has the right to present a petition
. . . yes, and they will receive the response from the National Assembly.
They will have their response in due course.''
Return To Top October 12, 2002
October 11,
2002
Kashmir Vote Demolishes Dynasty SALEEM PANDIT & SIDDHARTH VARADARAJAN writing in the Times of India
SRINAGAR: With the ruling National Conference (NC) making it clear that it will not attempt to form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir, all eyes are now on the Congress and the People's Democratic Party (PDP).
[The National Conference won 28 seats, the Congress party of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi won 20, the PDP, a local party, won 16, and other parties won 23. The BJP, India's ruling party, one exactly one seat.]
Though the arithmetic favours a coalition between them and smaller parties and independents, there are several issues the two need to sort out, before they can establish a stable, coherent government.
Contrary to predictions, the NC suffered severe reverses in the assembly elections, the results of which were announced on Thursday.
Even though it emerged as the single largest party in the 87-seat assembly, its tally of 28 seats is way short of the magic figure of 44. The Congress made a huge impact, winning 20 seats, while Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's PDP won 16. Interestingly, the NC managed to win most of the seats where the separatists' boycott call was effective. The BJP and the BSP managed just one seat each, while the CPM bagged two.
For the NC, which has ruled the state for more than two decades, the results proved to be a bitter pill. NC president Omar Abdullah - the party's chief ministerial candidate from Ganderbal - lost by a margin of 2,000 votes to PDP's Mohammad Afzal. Several other senior NC leaders lost.
Having won more seats than the PDP, thanks mainly to its showing in Jammu, the Congress would be keen to assume the chief ministership. And having spearheaded the Congress' resurgence in the state, Ghulam Nabi Azad would be the logical candidate for the top job. The state has never had a chief minister from Jammu, but party workers here say someone like Azad - who hails from the Chhota Kashmir region of Doda - would be equally acceptable in the Valley.
However, PDP leader Mufti Mohammed Sayeed - a former Union home minister in the VP Singh government - is also a strong contender. The PDP's spectacular showing in the Valley - largely responsible for NC being shunted out - has put the party in a commanding position. Mufti's supporters also argue that as a regional rather than national party, the PDP is well placed to deal with the grievances of the people in Kashmir.
Analysts and officials say if Azad does become CM, it is almost certain that Sayeed's daughter Mehbooba Mufti, who has been instrumental in building up the PDP, would be deputy CM, ''with well-defined powers''. And if Sayeed emerges as head of the coalition, Azad would want Mangat Ram Sharma, the senior Congress leader from Jammu, to be the deputy CM.
The Congress and the PDP will also have to evolve a common policy framework since the two are ideologically and politically quite distinct. Though the Congress attacked the NC on the human rights issues, the PDP's campaign was rather more strident. The party wants the Special Operations Group (SOG) disbanded, it favours an immediate dialogue process with Pakistan and the militants and also describes the Kashmir problem as an international dispute.
And then the PDP and the Congress will also have to reckon with a very diverse set of independents. Conscious that the issue of dialogue with militants should not become a roadblock, Azad said on Thursday that just as Laldenga and other separatists had been engaged with in the past, there was no reason this should not happen in Kashmir.
Times of India Comment
The reversal of the National Conference was on expected lines. The average Kashmiri was disillusioned with the Abdullahs and the poll outcome has only reflected that trend. As per the current trends, a hung Assembly seems to be a certainty because the Congress-PDP combine is unlikely to muster a complete majority in the J&K Assembly. That leaves the field open for the Independents and perhaps some hectic sessions of horse-trading.
While the trends show Congress-PDP combine to get 36 seats, well short of the magic number of 44, the National Conference may emerge as the single largest party with 26 seats. Independents and other small parties have won 17 and are leading in 4 seats.
However, for a state ravaged by decade-old militancy and violence, the question remains: Will the new government be able to ensure a better life for the Kashmiris?
Return To Top October 11, 2002
Israel: Which Is Lesser Evil -
Hamas Or Arafat?
From Debka.com
The first serious inter-Palestinian clashes since Yasser Arafat proclaimed his confrontation withIsrael two years have not lightened Israel's security cares and dilemmas. While fighting each other in the Gaza Strip, the two Palestinian factions - his loyalists and the Islamist Hamas - are also vying for primacy as wielder of terror against Israel.
Northern Israel's police chief, Yaacov Borovsky, warned Wednesday October 9 that the short lull in terrorist strikes from the West Bank into Israel of recent weeks was deceptive and his forces were arrayed for the next bout of violence.
His voice was drowned out by the clamor of criticism pouring out of Israel's political opposition. One Knesset member wanted all unauthorized settlers' outposts dismantled on the West Bank - an operation ordered by defense minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer to begin Wednesday, October 9; another demanded a state inquiry into Palestinian civilian deaths among the 16 casualties in this week's IDF raid of a Hamas stronghold, inside a densely-populated slum in the south Gaza Strip town of Khan Younes.
The raid was widely condemned. The White House voiced "deep concern", adding that while supporting Israel's right to self defense, the risks to civilian population in areas in which the IDF operations should be minimized. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, while expressing remorse for civilian casualties, stressed the operation was essential and promised more to come.
Israel's defense authorities are clearly braced for trouble. That is because of intense, ominous rumblings under the surface.
DEBKAfile 's counter-terror sources have received information that the Palestinians are busy plotting a whole new vista of anti-Israel violence on three separate levels:
Level 1: The Palestinian terrorist groups subject to Arafat and his lieutenants have been directed to start using missiles - specifically, shoulder-launched LAW anti-tank missiles and SA-7 air-aircraft Strellas.
Evidence of this turned up in the last week of September, when two LAW missiles were discovered by chance in a stolen vehicle in the industrial zone of Lod, near Ben Gurion international airport. On the same day, two large explosive devices were found in the same town near the municipal tip. The police initially attributed these discoveries to criminal activity, until security authorities came to the conclusion that a major terror strike had been aborted against the international air port, the air industries located there or one of the many military and air bases clustered grouped in the Lod area.
Level 2: Indications are accumulating of a Palestinian plot to shoot down a plane carrying an Israeli VIP - an operation for which precise intelligence is required. This is thought to be at the information-gathering stage.
Level 3: Tuesday, October 8, a Red Magen David ambulance was stolen in Hadera, north of Tel Aviv. It was not the first. Several have gone missing in recent months. Even though Israeli armed forces control most West Bank Palestinian towns, the missing ambulances are believed to have been transferred to the territory and rigged for a large-scale terror attack.
Such an attack, security services believe, would be staged by stolen Israeli ambulances packed with hundreds of kilos of explosives and activated by suicide killers or remote control. One or more would creep up after a major terror attack in a town center and explode in the middle of the carnage and rescue efforts. Alternatively, an ambulance could serve Palestinian terrorists as a mobile gun position for firing off in all directions, or to gain entrance to a hospital and detonate amid crowds of patients and medical personnel.
This threat is judged real enough for a decision to fit Magen David ambulances soon with GPS (Global Positioning Systems), for positioning and navigating by satellite, as well as a new, secret type of armor.
As for the widely condemned Khan Younes operation, Israeli combat personnel do take care to differentiate clearly between armed Palestinian terrorists and civilians. Israel's left-wing opposition leader Yossi Sarid, is aware of this. He will also know that the IDF did not send tanks, bulldozers, men and helicopters into the Hamas lion's den of this Gazan town early Monday, October 7, on a routine hunt for terrorists. Their objective was quite different.
The Palestinians make no bones about admitting that an inter-faction showdown has begun for control of the Gaza Strip. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad have raised a challenge to Arafat's authority in the territory.
Some hours after the Israeli incursion, Monday, October 7, masked Hamas killers kidnapped and shot dead the chief of the Palestinian riot police, Col. Rajeh Abu Lehiya, settling accounts with an Arafat operative a year after he gunned down pro-Osama bin Laden Hamas demonstrators. When Palestinian police demanded the handover of the chief suspect in the killing, Emad Akel, the Hamas helped him escape. Four people were killed in the ensuing Hamas-pro-Arafat partisan clashes Monday and Tuesday.
Despite reports of peace talks between the warring sides, the Hamas has made plain its determination to pry loose Arafat's hold on the Gaza Strip. This extremist Islamic terror group is now bent on gaining full control over the Strip and make it the second - or even first - Islamic terror base in the Middle East, after Hizballah-dominated south Lebanon.
On April 1, Israeli forces drove into the Jenin refugee camp to break up the Hamas-Jihad-Hizballah's West Bank bastion before it extended its hold on the territory. Its war stockpile was considerable - as revealed this week by candid Palestinian spokesmen: 15,000 explosive devices. Monday's IDF Khan Younes operation was the first in a series aimed at the same goal of diminishing the Hamas domain, this time in the Gaza Strip.
DEBKAfile's military experts explain there is no way to hit Hamas and Jihad Islami strongholds in the Gaza Strip without collateral harm to civilians. Quite simply, those groups locate their command posts, operations bases, armories and explosives dumps in residential districts and public institutions, like schools and hospitals, which provide a supportive environment and act as a vital element of their operational logistical system.
Israeli military planners think very hard before attacking such Islamic strongholds in the Gaza Strip - and only then when seriously provoked by non-stop rocket, mortar, bomb, firing and grenade attacks on Israel targets in the Strip and across the border into southern Israel.
In addition to the risk of civilian casualties, a strategic dilemma raised its head this week: Any assault on Hamas strongholds weakens this violent group; it also plays into the hands of Yasser Arafat and his men, at a time when they are deep in the planning of the a/m upsurge of terror.
The question is: Why should Israel help Arafat subdue his enemies in the Gaza Strip?
[Given Debka's adamant opposition to and constant vilification of Mr. Arafat, the above sentence must have been a difficult one to write. Now Debka is having to say that Mr. Arafat may not be be th greatest evil; there may be even greater evils than just him. Editor]
Return To Top October 11, 2002
Two articles from Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia
A clash of cultures, not civilizations
Abdullah Bajubeer
I have read a good deal about Samuel Huntington's clash of civilizations. I have written about the man and his theory commenting on leading articles by some of those who discussed the theory. His idea is that history itself is a conflict of civilizations and that there will always be civilizations that rise and triumph and others that fail and fall. Huntington cites examples from history but he keeps emphasizing history while forgetting geography altogether.
It was possible in the past for civilizations to flourish in different parts of the world but mountains, rivers and vast swathes of land separated them. A civilization may flourish in China, for example, but its influence would not extend to Europe. Another may rise in India but would not extend its influence to affect other civilizations, for example in North Africa. There were genuine barriers that separated civilizations from each another. If two civilizations met and came together, then clash was inevitable. Nobody knew much about the other who was viewed as an enemy.
I, however, consider that all civilizations merged into one in the 20th century and maybe some decades earlier. That was when the means of communication made it possible for civilizations to come together, when boundaries fell apart and language barriers collapsed. Civilizations were built on the one and same technology; a Chinese plane flies using the same technology as an American, Indian or Russian plane. Cellular phones make use of the same technology all over the world and with the Internet it has become much easier for civilizations to come together and eventually merge. Accessing information about one other is now much easier and nobody would dare to say that Western civilization is detached from the Eastern variety. The world has been turned into a small global village. Whatever happens in one part of the globe, say in Madras in India, is immediately transmitted by satellite to Dublin in Ireland and everywhere else. If Wall Street crashes, there will be shockwaves around the world resulting in the collapse of share prices in Zurich, Tokyo and London.
Influencing others and being influenced by them is a continuous process but each civilization has its own differences and characteristics. Civilization is contagious with its influence affecting everyone who comes in touch with it. Reacting to civilization is like reacting to an illness where people have their own way of dealing with foreign elements which attack and where the medicine applied by some may not be effective with others. If there ever has to be a conflict, let it be one of cultures and not of civilizations. The difference is enormous.
Reply to a letter from a Saudi lady upset her husband has divorced her
I cannot blame a man marrying a second wife if his first one is unable to bear children. At the same time, he should marry for the second time only after all possible medical efforts to make the first wife fertile have failed. I know several men who prefer to live with their beloved wives despite their inability to have children.
This was the topic of Wafa's two letters. She was divorced on grounds of infertility without any attempt to remedy the problem. She was married at 25 and her husband was 32. She looked forward to a life of love and stability. Soon after the marriage, she became very upset when she, with a science degree from a local university, discovered that her husband was a relatively uneducated man though he had said earlier that he was a secondary school graduate. She did not complain and two years later, when she had not conceived, her husband took her to a doctor who found that there was a blockage in the fallopian tube that could be surgically corrected. Surprisingly as soon as her husband learned of her problem, he declared his intention to marry another woman who could bear children. When Wafa objected and asked him to take her to a specialist, he refused and divorced her. She then learned that he had been looking for a second wife even before he found out about her problem. In her letter she sought advice as to what she could do in these very depressing circumstances.
It is evident from the beginning that her former husband is a liar, a coward and a fraud. Why else should he pretend to be a secondary school graduate? Their marriage was on a weak foundation from the very beginning. She should not grieve over the end of a marriage with such a man who is apparently incapable of reciprocating love and affection. If he had the least consideration for her, he would have taken her to a specialist and agreed to the surgery. Or she should have arranged for the surgery with the help of her relatives.
She should thank God for revealing her husband's ugly character and saving her from him. Let us hope that God will provide her with another loving and kinder husband. In the meantime, she should have the operation and be physically ready to become a mother.
Return To Top October 11, 2002
October 10,
2002
More on Kuwait Incident
More on Kuwait Incident Return To Top October 10, 2002
Rebel Raid Caps Bloody Elections in Indian Kashmir
Return To Top October 10, 2002
Pakistan Tests Second Missile Just Ahead of Poll
Extracts from Reuters report
by Mike Collett-White Return To Top October 9, 2002Pakistani Raid Refugee Camps Return To Top October 10, 2002
October 9,
2002
17 die in Afghan factional fighting From Pakistan's Jang a story by Mushtaq Yusufzai.
PESHAWAR: As many as 17 Afghans were reportedly killed and five injured in the two-day fierce fighting between Khost administration and rebel Afghan warlord Badshah Khan Zadran, reliable sources informed The News from Khost on Tuesday night. According to these Afghan sources, on Monday heavy contingents loyal to Badshah Khan stormed mountainous Nadirshah Kot area near Khost and after brief resistance by the local administration Zadran's people captured the strategically important area.
During fighting, people of Zadran killed two fighters of the Khost administration and made 13 captives besides seizing a large number of weapons. The sources said that Zadran led the fighters and took part in the fighting.
On Tuesday morning, the Khost administration backed by US troops has sent large number of fresh contingents to the troubled region and after heavy fighting they recaptured Nadirshah Kot from Zadran.
During ferocious fighting in which both the sides are said to have used heavy artillery, Zadran is reported to have lost 15 of his men. The Khost authorities also claimed to have captured five fighters of Zadran and shifted them to Khost. According to the sources US gunship helicopters were seen flying over the area continuously and firing on the mountains occupied by Zadran's men.
They claimed to have seen US troops while traveling towards Nadirshah Kot to assist local administration against Zadran. Till filing this report the sources said that fighting was still going on while Badshah Khan was reported to have left the area.
Italian troops to man Pak-Afghan border
From Pakistan's Jang a story by Aslam Khan .
ISLAMABAD: About 1,000 Italian troops specialised in mountain warfare will be shortly deployed along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to restrict alleged cross-border traffic of terrorists, well-placed sources disclosed to The News here on Monday.
"The Italian alpine troops will be deployed to patrol the Afghan border with Pakistan to detect and detain Al-Qaeda and Taliban elements and their allies, including former mujahideen leader Gulbadin Hekmatyar," a source said while requesting anonymity. "The contingent of alpine troops will number between 800 and 1,000," he added.
The alpine troops, who are trained in mountain warfare, have been chosen on American request, he said, because most of the territory where the alleged cross-border movement was taking place was treacherous mountainous area.
"Their mission will last for about six months during which they will supplement the American presence in the region and will be guided by US intelligence and search and arrest operations," the source told The News.
He, however, refused to say how many American troops were involved in patrolling and monitoring the mountainous parts of the Pak-Afghan border.
According to the source, the decision to buttress the American operations by the Italians had been taken because of the US estimate that the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan would not be completed before two years.
"Until all surviving pockets of terrorism are neutralised, possible logistic bases and recruitment centres of the terrorists destroyed, the military operations will continue," the source said. "It has been estimated that these goals will not be achieved before the end of 2004," he added.
US Marine dies in attack by Kuwaitis
From Pakistan's Jang
KUWAIT: Two Kuwaitis opened fire on US troops engaged in a military exercise on a Kuwaiti island in the Gulf on Tuesday, killing one Marine in what officials described as a "terrorist" attack.
The Kuwaiti Interior Ministry named the dead attackers as Kuwaitis Anas Ahmad Ibrahim al-Kandari and Jassem Mubarak al-Hajri. "This is a terrorist incident," it said. The ministry did not say if they were militants, but security sources told Reuters they were probably linked to such groups.
US officials in Kuwait said investigators found three AK-47 assault rifles and ammunition in the pick-up truck used by the assailants. "This was an unprovoked attack," a US source said. The incident occurred while Marines were participating in the annual Eager Mace live-fire training exercises on Failaka Island off the coast of Kuwait City.
The Pentagon and security sources in Kuwait said two men in a pick-up truck approached the Marines and opened fire. "The Marines were under fire. They returned fire and did their job," said Captain Bradley E Johanson on board the USS Denver in the northern Arabian Gulf.
Millie Tamber, a spokeswoman for the US Navy Fifth Fleet on the USS Denver, said one US Marine was shot in the chin and stomach and one was hit in the arm. The Marine with multiple wounds died during surgery. The other is listed in stable condition after surgery.
The two Kuwaiti assailants died in the gun battle. Sources in Kuwait said 32 people were detained as material witnesses by the Kuwaiti police as part of the investigation.
A Marine unit of some 1,000 started a two-week exercise in Kuwait earlier this month as part of the annual Eager Mace training programme which involves an amphibious assault landing and a variety of heavy weapons and warplanes.
The US maintains a year-round military presence in oil-rich Kuwait, with a current deployment of around 10,000 soldiers, including Marines and members of the air force engaged in enforcing a no-fly zone over southern Iraq.
[Editor's note: US reports say that the Marines were using blank ammunition and were therefore unable to fire back at the scene of the incident. The two Kuwaitis killed plus four more arrested are said to be from important families. Meanwhile, ABC-TV showed video of the French oil tanker that was on fire off Yemen; a large hole at the waterline and the inward buckling of the hull plates seems to provide conclusive proof that the attack was indeed a terrorist incident.]
Return To Top October 9, 2002
October 8,
2002
Ivory Coast Forces Penetrate Rebel Stronghold
Ivory Coast Forces Penetrate Rebel Stronghold At Least 14 Dead in Violence Ahead of Kashmir Vote
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam IDF: Most casualties in Gaza raid were terrorists Return To Top October 8, 2002
October 6,
2002
Letter from Major A.H. Amin on the Pakistan Army Major AH Amin is a prolific writer on Pakistan's military affairs, and a controversial one too. When in the mood, he writes on military history for us. Since September 11, 2001, like many patriotic Pakistanis in the military establishment, he has been deeply depressed by what he sees as America's colonization of Pakistan just fifty years after the country won its independence from India and the British. This letter was written as an article which he sent to the Friday Times in Pakistan, rebutting an up and coming Pakistani writer on defense, unusually a woman, Ms. Ayesha Siddiqa Agha. His rebuttal was not published.
We carry the letter without editing. It will be hard reading for any non South Asian and for any one not reasonably familiar with Pakistani affairs. Nonetheless, our experience is that Major Amin does speak for a number of Pakistani officers, serving and retired, who are almost never heard from for a variety of reasons. We feel any reader who takes the trouble to go thorough the letter will learn a great deal of the thinking of the ordinary Pakistani officer. We need not make the obvious point that in their day General Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, and Pervaz Musharraf were just ordinary officers who one day felt compelled to leave the debating benches and to act…
Major Amin's Letter Lately since 9/11 many apologists have been proclaiming that Pakistan Army does not have extremist elements or is not dominated by them . The debate is Utopian and rather pedantic at best .
The fact that Pakistan's military is not secular or secular is again of little consequence in the final reckoning at the grand strategic level once it comes to the "Final Round" which will be fought in this region termed by US Think Tanks as "Belt of Strategic Instability" .
In the past fifty years the armed forces has been transformed from a relatively simple and spartan fighting machine into a hole punching , whiz kid dominated fraternity where careerism is more important than professionalism .Careerism in this discussion is referred to as personal self advancement based on motivation related to personal progress .
This army began as a relatively motivated fighting machine with indomitable men like Akbar Khan DSO (Distinguished Service Order) , Latif Khan (MBE) , Abrar Hussain (MBE) , Ishaq Khan (MC) etc . Unfortunately within two years of independence it was overtaken by social climbers . Men with records of tactical incompetence and tactical timidity in Burma like a unique man who promoted himself to Field Marshal in peace many years after a war in which he was sacked with an adverse report and packed off to a Chamar Battalion which was disbanded after the war (Refers-Behind the Scenes - Maj Gen Joginder Singh-Lancer-Delhi-1990) . Naturally this man was averse to all fighting soldiers . Thus he packed off many professional soldiers from the army in the witch hunt which followed the aftermath of Pindi Conspiracy .
While great armies of modern military history were creation of nationalist wars and led by the nobility or by an ideologically motivated officer cadre the Pakistan or Indian Army had nothing to do with the Indian Freedom Struggle less the Navy who launched the famous Naval Mutiny of 1946 .
The army thus consisted of social climbers who got commission in WW Two . It had not defied the occupiers of this land. As a matter of fact it had collaborated with the British as now it collaborates with USA. Those who were nationalistic were sidelined as earlier discussed in 1950s. Whatever Urdu speaking civil servants like Hassan Zaheer who came here from India for cushy CSP jobs since they could not compete with UP Hindus in India, may rationalized about conspirators and webs of Pindi Conspiracy .I
In the past fifty years the army was turned into a semi commercial organisation like WAPDA or PIA . While mission oriented disobedience known as Auftragstaktik was encouraged in the Imperial German Army and the Cross of Maria Theresa was presented to a commander who won a battle by disobedience in battle in WW One Pakistan's military top brass inculcated a culture of clerk type obedience and slavishness in line with British traditions. The same traditions which had led General Mellenthin of German Army in WW Two to describe British officers as mouth pieces and clerks of their higher commanders .
It is important for civilians to understand that over the past fifty years the army has emerged as a generals trade union . A trade union of the elite . Where a general can be excused for selling Stingers while a lieutenant like Babar Majeed can be dismissed for taking one 100 Watt bulb from his office .
Erratic behavior is classified as upright behavior . Back in 1986 one Brigadier named Naseer Akhtar then Chief of Staff of 5 Corps Karachi placed a colonel under arrest for presenting a mess bill to then Vice Chief Arif's ADC .
There is no denial of the fact that Pakistan was created because the Muslim elite both UP Punjab or Sindh could not compete with the non Muslims whether it was officer rank in army or civil . As per one study from 1911 to 1944 out of 87 Muslims selected in ICS only 29 passed the exam while 58 were nominated or were best failures .So an elitist society emerged. Initially the civil servants and politicians fought for evacuee property. Later the army under Generals Ayub, Habibullah and Barki entered the scene .The race goes on to date.
Somewhere in the middle Pakistan's Nuclear Program was created by Mr Z.A Bhutto and a large team of many known and unknown men. Needless to say the motivation was ideological whether Bhutto drank Black Dog [a famous Scotch - Editor] or Qadeer Khan prayed . That Nuclear program survived Mr Bhutto's fall was not because the military usurper Zia was a greater patriot but because the USA needed Pakistan in the Soviet Afghan War . Since that war ended in 1988 it is an unwritten US objective to dismantle Pakistan's Nukes whether Pakistan Army is extremist or not.
That the armed forces is involved in commercial ventures and that it provides its members great benefits is also a myth . This scribe retired as a major in March 1994 and is drawing Rs 2248/- per month as a pension. Many majors and colonels are doing jobs with salary packages of 8,000/- per month. No crib with this country who has given 75 % of its blood to the Khaki. There is a difference at this point . There are classes in the army. The Brahmans who are above brigadier and the Shudras who are below major general unless some selective shudras are luckier in terms of personal relations or blood relations.
Lucrative opportunities are provided only to the In-laws not the outlaws . Even in this regime, hardly 1 % of officers have benefited. That's not the point .The point is why should anyone benefit after retirement. Why. For losing East Pakistan. For losing Kargil. What have we done . Who hunted the Hurs like partridges in 1942. The Marris in 1974. The Mahsuds and Waziris in 2002.
The profession of soldiering is for those who seek privation . Who seek self-denial. Who are motivated by honor glory and nationalism. This is not the case with sub continental armies from brigadier plus.
The only ideology of individuals who advance beyond brigadier is self-interest. Those who had an ideology either died in 1965 , 1971 in Siachen like Brigadier Anwari or in the valleys of death at Kargill . How many above major died at Kargil? Nil. How many above captain less Major Sloan of Engineers died in 1947-48 War ? Nil . And even Sloan died while not facing fire. The layman may note that 335 German generals died in WW Two.
Yes people are focused . About career planning. About getting good grades. Good ACRS. [Annual Confidential Reports - Editor] Careerism par excellence.
That spying is good and reporting is good in detecting so called conspiracies inside Pakistan while Intelligence was a miserable failure in detecting Indian amour location in 1965 or Indian presence inside 35 miles Pakistan territory is no compliment to the operational efficiency of a military machine .
In my service I was always at logger heads with Hamid Gul , but there is no denying the fact that he was better than most I saw , intellectually , ideologically and professionally. Similarly whatever the drawbacks of Abbasi , he was not a Yes Man , he was not a careerist . He was a man of conviction.
If Hameed Gul's daughter runs a business this is no reason to doubt Hamid's abilities as a professional. If Musharrafs' daughter is a landscaper with DHA is it a reason to multiply Musharraf's ability by zero?
The military establishment has been unable to attain a positive image because its leaders have usurped power , destroyed constitutions, lost wars if not tactically then strategically . No lady even a triple Phd can restore that image. [We presume Major Amin refers to Ms. Agha and her article - Editor] The image can be improved only in a crisis.
Now, it is vital for the armed forces to prepare for the worst. That Musharraf is a pragmatist or a sharp man is no guarantee of defense of this country. Liaquat Ali Khan was gunned down just a few minutes before he wanted to announce a Muslim alliance of Iran, Palestine, Egypt (See from Martial Law to Martial Law-Nur Shah-Vanguard). Bhutto was removed in 1977. In grand strategy, images don't count. We have to prepare for the worst. The USA will not let an Islamic state have Nuclear weapons whatever image we make of ourselves. It's time that we stop this self-deception.
Return To Top October 7, 2002
October 6,
2002
Iraq after Saddam: what next?
Iraq after Saddam: what next?
The violence in Afghanistan following the routing of the Taliban is
a salutary lesson for George W Bush and those in his administration who
are champing at the bit to get rid of the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein.
The simmering divisions of Iraq's splintered Sunni, Shi'a and Kurd tribal
society may well explode once Saddam is overthrown or killed by the Americans
and its allies.
The problem of what to do once the regime has been removed is one that
is only now being addressed. It would be unwise in the extreme to proceed
with a military campaign before these crucial questions have been resolved.
This was the main topic at a recent gathering in London of disparate
Iraqi opposition figures and their prognosis was not good. The destruction
of civil society by Saddam Hussein and the lack of any viable institutions
outside the military and the security apparatus, leaves a gaping hole in
the future infrastructure of the country.
Hearings on the subject held by the US Senate in August provided a gloomy
assessment of what is likely to happen.
Rend Rahim Francke, director of the Iraqi Foundation, backs up 'Obeidi:
"The system of law and order will break down, endangering public safety
and putting people at risk of personal reprisals. There will be no police
force, no justice system, no civil service and no accountability. In this
confusion, people will take justice into their own hands."
Fight for the future
The Bush administration's distaste for nation-building and its performance
in Afghanistan offers little encouragement to democratic change in Iraq,
Francke says.
"In some respects, Afghanistan is a case study in what not to do. The
United States cannot take the path of least resistance and regard Iraq
exclusively as a military campaign, to be quickly wrapped up. For both
Iraqis and the United States, this must be a fight not just against Iraq's
past, but also for its future."
With the Bush administration under mounting domestic and international
pressure to spell out what its plans for Iraq are, and whether or not it
has an exit strategy, some US political leaders are demanding answers.
US allies, reluctant to endorse an attack on Iraq and fearful of the
regional consequences, have also been demanding answers to some fundamental
questions about Bush's plans:
Who would guarantee Iraq's territorial integrity after the war? How
does the administration expect to prevent the country from fragmenting
into a Kurdish north, a Sunni centre and a Shi'a south?
US special envoy in top level talks with N
Koreans
SEOUL: US special envoy James Kelly held a second day of landmark
talks with North Korean officials here Friday amid hopes of a new phase
in US relations with the Stalinist regime.
Following a relaxed session on Thursday that included dinner with North
Korean Foreign Ministry officials, Kelly's negotiations on Friday were
scheduled to touch the core issues of US-North Korean ties, according to
South Korean officials.
In a sign that talks may be progressing, the US assistant secretary
of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs made a courtesy call on Kim
Yong-Nam, the titular head of the Stalinist state who is second in rank
to leader Kim Jong-Il.
A former foreign minister, Kim Yong-Nam heads the standing committee
of the Supreme People's Assembly, and is number two in the ruling politburo.
The meeting was reported by North Korea's Central News Agency which otherwise
was silent on the first high-level US visit here in two years. Kelly met
with Kim Gye-Gwan, one of several vice foreign ministers in Pyongyang,
on Thursday, and would likely see the more senior First Vice Foreign Minister
Kang Sok-Ju on Friday, according to a South Korean Foreign Ministry official.
The US delegation is holding three days of talks with the North Korean
regime, the first high-level dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington
in North Korea since the United States severed contact nearly two years
ago.
Kelly's mission is being billed as a chance to lay out the US negotiating
position, and to gauge whether Pyongyang is serious about discussing a
long list of US grievances.
On taking office early last year, President George W. Bush adopted a
hard-line policy towards the North, which he included in his "axis of evil"
along with Iran and Iraq. The delegation appears unlikely to table any
new proposals in Pyongyang, but to stress a US agenda which targets Pyongyang's
missile sales, nuclear program, vast conventional forces, human rights
performance and possible links to terrorists.
Few observers expect a repeat of the accelerated dialogue pursued in
the waning days of the Clinton administration which saw then secretary
of state Madeleine Albright visit Pyongyang in October 2000.
However, some South Korean officials are looking for a breakthrough
development similar to the stunning acknowledgement recently by North Korean
leader Kim Jong-Il that the North had abducted Japanese citizens.
That admission came about during Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Kozumi's
visit to Pyongyang last month. "We expect that Kim Jong-Il will make some
gesture to the United States as well," a top official of South Korea's
ruling party said.
Saddam's Web of Lies Conceals Iraq WMD Program
WASHINGTON, Oct. 4, 2002 - Before making any judgments about Iraq, it
is important for the American people to know that Saddam Hussein's regime
lies to further its aims, Pentagon spokeswoman Torie Clarke said Oct. 4.
She said Pentagon officials would present a briefing in the next few
days on the Iraqi dictator's denial and deception operations. She said
the operations are very organized, comprehensive "and clearly intended
to hide Iraq's weapons of mass destruction."
As the American people, the Congress and the United Nations confront
issues on Iraq, Clarke said they should remember that it has been Iraqi
policy to lie to their own people, neighboring countries and the world.
"People should consider that fact very carefully as they weigh their decisions
on how to deal with Iraq," she said.
Clarke called the Iraqi denial and deceit campaign a sophisticated program
directed by the highest level in the government. She said there is already
evidence that Iraq is trying to conceal its weapons of mass destruction
program in anticipation of the return of U.N. arms inspectors.
Joint Staff spokesman Navy Rear Adm. David Gove told reporters that
operations continue in Afghanistan. He said U.S. service members yesterday
destroyed the largest cache of weapons yet found in the country. American
troops had found the 420 500-pound aerial bombs buried near Kandahar several
weeks ago.
Gove addressed the leaflet-drop operation Oct. 1 over Southern Iraq.
A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft dropped about 120,000 leaflets on Iraqi anti-aircraft
sites. The leaflets warned the Iraqi gunners not to fire on coalition aircraft
patrolling the Southern No-fly Zone. If the Iraqis continue to fire, coalition
aircraft will attack, the leaflets said. Gove said the leaflets are a continuing
operation done at the discretion of the Southern Watch commander and added
there may be further drops.
Gove said there were two such missions last year. He said there does
not appear to be any difference between incidents against coalition aircraft
before and after the drops. "The firing activity that we've seen over the
last three years and so far this year is relatively consistent," Gove said.
"On average it is about the same."
Clarke said the leaflet drops send a very clear message to the Iraqi
gunners "who for 10 years, have been firing on our pilots … trying to bring
those planes down."
"This is a very bad thing to do and there (are) going to be consequences,"
she said.
Return To Top October 6, 2002
October 5,
2002
Military Operations Against Iraq - One Possible Scenario
Military Operations Against Iraq - One Possible
Scenario
Although it is impossible to know what the military planners in both
the Pentagon and Whitehall are actually thinking with regard to possible
future military operations against Iraq, one or two things are becoming
a little clearer. The following is one possible scenario as to how the
situation might develop over the next few months, and it is highly likely
that events might proceed along a three-phase operational path:
UN Inspection teams enter Iraq during mid-October and prepare for work,
with actual inspections starting from about 1 November.
At the same time as the UN Inspectors start work, large numbers of coalition
troops arrive on the borders of Iraq to increase the military and diplomatic
pressure on Saddam Hussein.
Should the Inspectors decide that Saddam Hussein is not co-operating
they would leave and the coalition would move into Phase 2.
With the Inspectors withdrawn, Phase 2 might start at the beginning
of December, and would consist of a series of forced inspections on Saddam
Hussein's suspected weapons of mass destruction facilities.
These inspections would probably involve large numbers of aircraft flying
'top cover' and air assault troops with attack helicopters. The troops
would fly into the area in support helicopters and carry out the inspection
required. Iraq would be warned that any military units attempting to interfere
with the inspection would be destroyed by coalition air power.
In parallel with Phase 2 the preparations for a possible Phase 3 would
take place, involving the movement of thousands of troops, vehicles and
logistic supplies to the area.
Phase 3 might involve an attack by upwards of 250,000 personnel, with
all their associated armoured vehicles and supporting aircraft.
Iraq: Use of force is unavoidable
In two days of sometimes hectic and contentious negotiations,
a bipartisan group of US congressional leaders and White House aides on
Monday and Tuesday hammered out a resolution (click here for full text)
authorizing US President George W Bush to use military force against Iraq
should diplomacy fail. There may be some modifications as debate in the
US Senate and House of Representatives continues. But it is certain that
at the end of the day the Congress (early next week) will pass a resolution
with large majorities in both houses giving Bush a free hand to launch
military action against the regime of Saddam Hussein - unilaterally if
needs be.
Contrary to apparent majority opinion in Europe and Asia, Bush has a
strong case for taking Saddam out by force, and for doing it now. Iraq
has attacked two of its neighbors without provocation. To find examples
for the brutality of Saddam's domestic rule in contravention of any and
all UN human rights standards one must look back all the way to Hitler's
Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union or Mao's China. After a broad UN-authorized
coalition chased Saddam's troops out of Kuwait in early 1991 in what the
grandiloquent Iraqi dictator had termed the "Mother of all Battles", Iraq
signed surrender terms laid out in UN Security Council Resolution 687 (April
3, 1991) which unambiguously stated that,
(Section 8) "Iraq shall unconditionally accept the destruction, removal,
or rendering harmless, under international supervision, of: (a) All chemical
and biological weapons and all stocks of agents and all related subsystems
and components and all research, development, support and manufacturing
facilities; (b) All ballistic missiles with a range greater than 150 kilometres
and related major parts, and repair and production facilities;" and
(Section 12) "Iraq shall unconditionally agree not to acquire or develop
nuclear weapons or nuclear-weapons-usable material or any subsystems or
components or any research, development, support or manufacturing facilities
related to the above; ... [and] accept ... urgent on-site inspection and
the destruction, removal or rendering harmless as appropriate of all items
specified above; ..."
To all but Iraqi government spokesmen it is as unambiguously clear that
Iraq is in flagrant material breach of the 1991 surrender terms. The only
serious questions are 1) why the UN did not act decisively at any time
over the past 11 years to rectify obvious Iraqi breaches; and 2) why the
US did not prior to the past several months adopt a pro-active attitude
to prod the UN to do so.
The 1991 surrender terms as explicated in Resolution 687 could be construed
as a contract under international law. In commercial law, there exist the
concepts of "estoppel by laches" and "estoppel by conduct" - the notions
that undue delay to take legal action to enforce a right and, respectively,
inducement by course of conduct and dealings of the belief that certain
contractual clauses cease to be valid "estops" or bars future action. But
the 1991 "contract" between Saddam and the UN was hardly commercial in
nature. Nor, of course, did the contract contain a statute of limitations,
a specific date beyond which the UN could not pursue its aims. Further,
the US and UK have continued to enforce no-fly zones (and been illegally
shot at), so that no Iraqi claim of de facto lapse of enforcement of UN
resolutions could hold water.
But legalisms aside, why now and why, critics say, with undue haste
and lethal force? And where, critics ask, is the "smoking gun"? The latter
question, a take- off on 1974 US Senate Watergate hearings into President
Nixon's misconduct, is an uncautious one and has too easy a devastating
answer: A smoking gun is one that has been fired, and we can't wait for
that to happen. The Bush administration argues that September 11 proved
that there exist terrorist organizations and states supporting them and
their aims and that this unique and uniquely horrifying event imparts the
urgency to its pursuits and the need to go to war if unfettered inspection
and destruction of Iraqi weapons-of-mass- destruction capabilities is not
complied with by Saddam. Bush's insistence on a new UN resolution giving
greater powers and enforcement capabilities to UN weapons inspectors follows
the same logic and, of course, references numerous 1991-98 efforts of Iraqi
obstruction.
Former US vice president Al Gore, who criticizes Bush's course, has
said that "Iraq does, indeed, pose a serious threat." Senator Edward Kennedy,
another nay-sayer, says that Saddam Hussein "must be disarmed". They both
said, too, that "we may reach the point where our only choice is conflict"
(Kennedy), and that UN authorization is not absolutely necessary since
"there's no international law that can prevent the United States from taking
action to protect our vital interests" (Gore). Thus, in principle, neither
of these two leading Democrats disagree with Bush. The only alternative
to Bush's policy they propose is a "go slow" approach and a return to the
Clinton days of looking the other way when facing clear and present danger
proves somehow politically inconvenient.
This will not happen. "Delay, indecision and inaction could lead to
a massive and sudden horror," said Bush in his Rose Garden address. The
great majority of the US Congress agrees with him. Bush has also challenged
the UN to either act decisively or find itself consigned to the role of
the ignominious League of Nations in the period between the two world wars.
At this juncture, there are only two possible outcomes: Either the UN Security
Council significantly tightens the weapons inspection (and destruction)
regime and Saddam fully and unconditionally complies with that regime,
or the US (and UK) will go it alone and remove Saddam from power.
US denies encouraging Israel-Iraq comparison
US officials assured Israeli diplomats on Thursday that the US had not
asked British Prime Minister Tony Blair to link UN resolutions on Iraq
to UN resolutions related to Israel. Israeli officials in Jerusalem had
speculated that the US had encouraged Blair to make the comment Tuesday
in order to curry favor with Arab states ahead of a potential attack on
Iraq.
But one Israeli diplomat said yesterday, "US officials told us unequivocally
that they absolutely did not coordinate with Blair on this." The US, in
fact, has done it's best to keep Iraq plans and the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict separate issues.
In Cairo yesterday, State Department Director of Policy Planning Richard
Haass, was quoted by Agence France Presse as saying after meeting Egyptian
Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher: "The situations are very different. Iraq
has used its weapons of mass destruction twice, against Iran as well as
against its own people."
A White House official told The Jerusalem Post yesterday: "It's a statement
of fact that we think UN Security Council Resolutions should be implemented."
"In our view, the implementation process (of Resolutions 242 and 338) has
already started. There is a political dialogue to resolve the outstanding
issues," the official said.
UN Security Council Resolution 242 calls for "the establishment of a
just and lasting peace in the Middle East," a "withdrawal of Israeli armed
forces from territories occupied" during the 1967 war, a "just" settlement
of the Palestinian refugee issue, and "acknowledgement of the sovereignty
of every state in the area and their right to live in peace within secure
and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." UN Security
Council Resolution 338 calls for implementation of 242 and negotiations
"aimed at establishing a just and durable peace in the Middle East."
In Blackpool yesterday, Blair said working to restart the Israeli-Palestinian
peace process is a crucial goal, and Britain must emphasize in doing so
that there is no double standard for those who violate UN resolutions.
He said Britain's interest in defusing the Middle Eastern conflict did
not stem from a desire to quiet things there before confronting Iraq over
its weapons of mass destruction. "We shouldn't be doing the Middle East
peace process because of issues with Iraq. We should be doing it because
it's right anyway," he said.
"However, it is important to emphasize our commitment to doing it to
assuage the fear, or claims that there are, that we operate a double standard,"
he said. UN resolutions have urged Israel to leave Palestinian territories
of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
"What we've got to do is find a way through the Middle East peace process
to bring peace to the Israelis and the Palestinians based on the two-state
solution," Blair told a news conference in Blackpool, where his governing
Labor Party was holding its annual conference.
Blair said US President George W. Bush had set out the right principles
for Middle East peace and was moving ahead with them political reform on
the Palestinian side and the goal of a viable Palestinian state, and a
secure Israeli one.
Return To Top October 5, 2002
Indo-US joint military exercise begins From the Times of India.
NEW DELHI: The Indo-US joint military exercise, ''Geronimo Thrust'', kicked off in Alaska this week as one more step towards enhancing ''inter-operability'' between the defence forces of the two sides.
This is the first time Indian forces are taking part in a military exercise in North America. ''The exercise is designed to familiarise Indian troops with some US training techniques and equipment, as well as give US soldiers the opportunity to interact with them,'' said a US embassy official.
Another thing unique about this exercise is that the around 100 Indian paratroopers and IAF personnel have flown to Alaska in their own aircraft, an IL-76 transport plane.
Return To Top October 4, 2002 ISLAMABAD: Pakistan demands of the United States to give more economic, trade and security assistance, as the country was a frontline ally in the war against the terror, Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz said on Thursday.
With Saudi Arabia, Aziz said, Pakistan will hold threadbare talks in Riyadh later this month. Aziz will visit the kingdom after October 10 polls. Pakistan will discuss possibility of extending Saudi oil facility (SOF) beyond 2002-03. The Saudis have offered this free oil facility of around $800 million per annum after the nuclear tests of May 1998, when international sanctions exposed Pakistan's external sector vulnerabilities. Initially, this facility was for two years, but later on, it was extended on the request of President General Pervez Musharraf. The government wants more extension in this facility, which had greatly helped stabilise Pakistan's external account.
Regarding Pakistan's latest reserve position, Aziz said official foreign exchange reserves were close to $8.2 billion. These reserves, he said, would surely touch $10 billion mark by end of the current fiscal year, if the flow of remittances continued and exports maintained growing trend. "The government intends to maintain stability of exchange rate through interventions in the inter-bank market," he said.
[This report would seem to strengthen speculation about Saudi Arabia's financial involvement in Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. The more than tripling of foreign exchange reserves in the last year indicates a big change in confidence in Pakistan on the part of overseas and resident Pakistanis who are sending money back instead of stashing it overseas. Economic assistance from the US had also contributed to the increase. Editor.]
Return To Top October 4, 2002
Ben-Eliezer: US will attack Iraq in November
Excerpts from an a rticle by TOVAH LAZAROFF AND HERB KEINON in the Jersualem Post
Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said last night that he expects an American attack on Iraq by late November. "It's possible it will begin toward the end of November," Ben-Eliezer told Labor Party ministers in Tel Aviv.
Ben-Eliezer stressed that Israel is ready for any eventuality.
He spoke after military sources told Israel Radio they now do not expect Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to launch Scud missiles carrying non-conventional warheads at Israel because this would prove to the world that the Americans are right in claiming he has such weapons.
The potential nuclear threat from Iraq is a more serious and immediate danger to Israel than its conflict with the Palestinians, Foreign Minister Shimon Peres told the World Jewish Congress biannual meeting in Jerusalem yesterday.
Peres said there are only a few years to react to this threat, after which it will be too late. At the same time, he said, the decision to go to war with Iraq can only be made by the United States. Israel has no role in making this decision, nor should it seek one, he added.
Iraq's decision to readmit UN arms inspectors is a transparent delaying tactic aimed at giving Saddam Hussein time to sow dissension between the US and Europe, a senior Israeli official said yesterday.
Saddam's tactic is to play for as much time as possible, the official said, adding: "He wants to stall and sow seeds of discontent in the UN Security Council, and in Europe, towards the idea of an American attack." The official said Saddam believes delaying the attack will also increase voices of opposition in the US itself.
Recent comments by Iraqi officials that Iraq has no intention of attacking its neighbors must be seen in the context of Baghdad's not wanting to say anything at this point to give the US a pretext to launch the attack, the official said.
"Iraq is now under a microscope," the official added, "and will say anything that will help create the impression that it does not have weapons of mass destruction. If they would now threaten to use chemical or biological weapons against us, it would confirm the worst that everyone believes, and give the US an excuse to attack."
The official, closely monitoring the situation in Iraq, said Israel is not keen on becoming involved in the impending war, and that Israel will not get involved if it has no overriding interest in doing so. The Americans also understand this, he said, intimating the US would likely cripple Iraq's capability to strike Israel in the early stages of the war, in order to make IDF military involvement unnecessary.
Return To Top October 4, 2002
October 3,
2002
U.S. To Stay In Afghanistan MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. - American troops will remain in Afghanistan "for the foreseeable future" to prevent an al-Qaida resurgence, the four-star general in charge of the military campaign there says. "Having destroyed all the terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan, what we want to be sure of is that we do not leave a condition inside Afghanistan where terrorism and terrorist training camps and so forth can be reintroduced," Army Gen. Tommy Franks told The Associated Press. He said American forces in Afghanistan, now numbering about 9,000, will assist in improving security and enabling the government to fend for itself. He said he was looking for ways to accelerate the training of an Afghan national army. Franks said he was pleased by progress in ridding Afghanistan of its terrorist elements. "I don't believe that we are seeing groups of al-Qaida cells operating in Afghanistan, even in the southeast" part of the country where security is weakest, he said. Still, it is too early to think about pulling out U.S. forces. "I'm not nearly satisfied that it's time for the United States of America's military formations to pick up and leave. We have a lot of work to do," he said.
Return To Top October 3, 2002 TEHRAN - Ayatollah Sayed Mohammed Baqir al Hakim, an Iraqi opposition leader with 8,000 armed fighters, has plenty of reasons to overthrow Saddam Hussein, but he refuses join the United States in doing so.
"We get no support from America. Neither in the past, nor nowadays," the white-robed, black-turbaned 63-year-old cleric said in an interview at his Tehran compound.
"If the U.S. offered help, we'd refuse it," he said as a half-dozen armed bodyguards looked on.
As the spiritual and political leader of the Iran-based Supreme Council for the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, or SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim has been battling the Iraqi regime since at least 1972, when the Baghdad government jailed and tortured him.
He was released, but Saddam jailed him again five years later, and over the years Saddam's government has killed five of Ayatollah Hakim's brothers, seven of his nephews and nearly 35 other relatives.
Speaking in Arabic and Farsi, Ayatollah Hakim said his group would continue its fight against the Baghdad government.
"We're working against Saddam now," he said. "We've always been fighting against the Iraqi regime. We were doing it before America. America's just arriving."
Indeed, said Ayatollah Hakim, America stood by and did nothing while Saddam Hussein's forces crushed a Shi'ite uprising in southern Iraq following the 1991 Gulf war.
"The Americans have only worked against us in the past," he said.
In 1998, President Clinton, recognizing the potential of the Iraqi opposition groups, offered to help SCIRI, which has been financed, armed and supported by Tehran since its founding. The Ayatollah Hakim turned Washington down.
The failure to recruit Ayatollah Hakim into an anti-Saddam coalition shows how poor relations between the United States and Iran have complicated the effort to replace the Iraqi government.
The U.S. government has begun circulating a draft of its proposed resolution on Iraq, Reuters reports. The resolution would give Baghdad seven days to accept every provision if adopted -- including demands that Iraq give a full count of its weapons of mass destruction within 30 days and allow any U.N. member state to use force if Baghdad provides false information. The resolution also calls for access to all sites and witnesses for weapons inspectors. The document is expected to be introduced to the Security Council later in the week, and still faces potential opposition from China, Russia and France. For the resolution to pass, the United States must gather nine "yes" votes among the 15 council members, but a veto from any of the five permanent council members could scuttle it. 1700 GMT
The Iraqi government has asked Indonesia to participate in the U.N. weapons inspections process, Reuters reports. Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda announced the plan after a meeting between President Megawati Sukarnoputri and an Iraqi minister. Jakarta is waiting for more details.
Return To Top October 3, 2002
October 2,
2002
The President's Real Goal in Iraq Next, while your editor claims no expertise in international affairs, it was clear to others and to him more than twenty years ago that a new global empire was being born, and that spurred by the defeat in Vietnam, Americans were planning not just to unequivocally make the 20th Century the American Century, but were planning to remake the world in their image for several more centuries. Your editor distinctly recalls many a discussion with the fellows of the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi along these lines, and he is certain he put down some elements of this thesis in an article published by the Journal of the India International Center somewhere around 1979. Probably the thesis was stated with more circumspection than here; nonetheless, your editor cannot imagine his old friends at IDSA will be the least bit surprised by Mr. Bookman's very informative article.
Now, even your editor eschews any claim to prophecy. He cannot say how the American Global Empire will work out. Nonetheless, he can say he is not with the doubters and the naysayers. America has done extraordinary things to change the world in the last hundred years; your editor feels for the better. If now the Americans want to formally announce their new empire, well, he is not about to begrudge them the glory. They have earned it. A word to the doubters and naysayers, however. If you wouldn't persist in underrating the Americans, you wouldn't be caught by surprise at what's been happening for at least the last 20 years.
Jay Bookman"s Article
The official story on Iraq has never made sense. The connection that the Bush
administration has tried to draw between Iraq and al-Qaida has always seemed
contrived and artificial. In fact, it was hard to believe that smart people in
the Bush administration would start a major war based on such flimsy evidence.
The pieces just didn't fit. Something else had to be going on; something was
missing.
In recent days, those missing pieces have finally begun to fall into place. As
it turns out, this is not really about Iraq. It is not about weapons of mass
destruction, or terrorism, or Saddam, or U.N. resolutions.
This war, should it come, is intended to mark the official emergence of the
United States as a full-fledged global empire, seizing sole responsibility and
authority as planetary policeman. It would be the culmination of a plan 10 years
or more in the making, carried out by those who believe the United States must
seize the opportunity for global domination, even if it means becoming the
"American imperialists" that our enemies always claimed we were.
Once that is understood, other mysteries solve themselves. For example, why does
the administration seem unconcerned about an exit strategy from Iraq once Saddam
is toppled?
Because we won't be leaving. Having conquered Iraq, the United States will
create permanent military bases in that country from which to dominate the
Middle East, including neighboring Iran.
In an interview Friday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld brushed aside that
suggestion, noting that the United States does not covet other nations'
territory. That may be true, but 57 years after World War II ended, we still
have major bases in Germany and Japan. We will do the same in Iraq.
And why has the administration dismissed the option of containing and deterring
Iraq, as we had the Soviet Union for 45 years? Because even if it worked,
containment and deterrence would not allow the expansion of American power.
Besides, they are beneath us as an empire. Rome did not stoop to containment; it
conquered. And so should we.
Among the architects of this would-be American Empire are a group of brilliant
and powerful people who now hold key positions in the Bush administration: They
envision the creation and enforcement of what they call a worldwide "Pax
Americana," or American peace. But so far, the American people have not
appreciated the true extent of that ambition.
Part of it's laid out in the National Security Strategy, a document in which
each administration outlines its approach to defending the country. The Bush
administration plan, released Sept. 20, marks a significant departure from
previous approaches, a change that it attributes largely to the attacks of Sept.
11.
To address the terrorism threat, the president's report lays out a newly
aggressive military and foreign policy, embracing pre-emptive attack against
perceived enemies. It speaks in blunt terms of what it calls "American
internationalism," of ignoring international opinion if that suits U.S.
interests. "The best defense is a good offense," the document asserts.
It dismisses deterrence as a Cold War relic and instead talks of "convincing or
compelling states to accept their sovereign responsibilities."
In essence, it lays out a plan for permanent U.S. military and economic
domination of every region on the globe, unfettered by international treaty or
concern. And to make that plan a reality, it envisions a stark expansion of our
global military presence.
"The United States will require bases and stations within and beyond Western
Europe and Northeast Asia," the document warns, "as well as temporary access
arrangements for the long-distance deployment of U.S. troops."
The report's repeated references to terrorism are misleading, however, because
the approach of the new National Security Strategy was clearly not inspired by
the events of Sept. 11. They can be found in much the same language in a report
issued in September 2000 by the Project for the New American Century, a group of
conservative interventionists outraged by the thought that the United States
might be forfeiting its chance at a global empire.
"At no time in history has the international security order been as conducive to
American interests and ideals," the report said. stated two years ago. "The
challenge of this coming century is to preserve and enhance this 'American
peace.' "
Familiar themes
Overall, that 2000 report reads like a blueprint for current Bush defense
policy. Most of what it advocates, the Bush administration has tried to
accomplish. For example, the project report urged the repudiation of the
anti-ballistic missile treaty and a commitment to a global missile defense
system. The administration has taken that course.
It recommended that to project sufficient power worldwide to enforce Pax
Americana, the United States would have to increase defense spending from 3
percent of gross domestic product to as much as 3.8 percent. For next year, the
Bush administration has requested a defense budget of $379 billion, almost
exactly 3.8 percent of GDP.
It advocates the "transformation" of the U.S. military to meet its expanded
obligations, including the cancellation of such outmoded defense programs as the
Crusader artillery system. That's exactly the message being preached by Rumsfeld
and others.
It urges the development of small nuclear warheads "required in targeting the
very deep, underground hardened bunkers that are being built by many of our
potential adversaries." This year the GOP-led U.S. House gave the Pentagon the
green light to develop such a weapon, called the Robust Nuclear Earth
Penetrator, while the Senate has so far balked.
That close tracking of recommendation with current policy is hardly surprising,
given the current positions of the people who contributed to the 2000 report.
Paul Wolfowitz is now deputy defense secretary. John Bolton is undersecretary of
state. Stephen Cambone is head of the Pentagon's Office of Program, Analysis and
Evaluation. Eliot Cohen and Devon Cross are members of the Defense Policy Board,
which advises Rumsfeld. I. Lewis Libby is chief of staff to Vice President Dick
Cheney. Dov Zakheim is comptroller for the Defense Department.
'Constabulary duties'
Because they were still just private citizens in 2000, the authors of the
project report could be more frank and less diplomatic than they were in
drafting the National Security Strategy. Back in 2000, they clearly identified
Iran, Iraq and North Korea as primary short-term targets, well before President
Bush tagged them as the Axis of Evil. In their report, they criticize the fact
that in war planning against North Korea and Iraq, "past Pentagon wargames have
given little or no consideration to the force requirements necessary not only to
defeat an attack but to remove these regimes from power."
To preserve the Pax Americana, the report says U.S. forces will be required to
perform "constabulary duties" -- the United States acting as policeman of the
world -- and says that such actions "demand American political leadership rather
than that of the United Nations."
To meet those responsibilities, and to ensure that no country dares to challenge
the United States, the report advocates a much larger military presence spread
over more of the globe, in addition to the roughly 130 nations in which U.S.
troops are already deployed.
More specifically, they argue that we need permanent military bases in the
Middle East, in Southeast Europe, in Latin America and in Southeast Asia, where
no such bases now exist. That helps to explain another of the mysteries of our
post-Sept. 11 reaction, in which the Bush administration rushed to install U.S.
troops in Georgia and the Philippines, as well as our eagerness to send military
advisers to assist in the civil war in Colombia.
The 2000 report directly acknowledges its debt to a still earlier document,
drafted in 1992 by the Defense Department. That document had also envisioned the
United States as a colossus astride the world, imposing its will and keeping
world peace through military and economic power. When leaked in final draft
form, however, the proposal drew so much criticism that it was hastily withdrawn
and repudiated by the first President Bush.
Effect on allies
The defense secretary in 1992 was Richard Cheney; the document was drafted by
Wolfowitz, who at the time was defense undersecretary for policy.
The potential implications of a Pax Americana are immense.
One is the effect on our allies. Once we assert the unilateral right to act as
the world's policeman, our allies will quickly recede into the background.
Eventually, we will be forced to spend American wealth and American blood
protecting the peace while other nations redirect their wealth to such things as
health care for their citizenry.
Donald Kagan, a professor of classical Greek history at Yale and an influential
advocate of a more aggressive foreign policy -- he served as co-chairman of the
2000 New Century project -- acknowledges that likelihood.
"If [our allies] want a free ride, and they probably will, we can't stop that,"
he says. But he also argues that the United States, given its unique position,
has no choice but to act anyway.
"You saw the movie 'High Noon'? he asks. "We're Gary Cooper."
Accepting the Cooper role would be an historic change in who we are as a nation,
and in how we operate in the international arena. Candidate Bush certainly did
not campaign on such a change. It is not something that he or others have dared
to discuss honestly with the American people. To the contrary, in his foreign
policy debate with Al Gore, Bush pointedly advocated a more humble foreign
policy, a position calculated to appeal to voters leery of military
intervention.
For the same reason, Kagan and others shy away from terms such as empire,
understanding its connotations. But they also argue that it would be naive and
dangerous to reject the role that history has thrust upon us. Kagan, for
example, willingly embraces the idea that the United States would establish
permanent military bases in a post-war Iraq.
"I think that's highly possible," he says. "We will probably need a major
concentration of forces in the Middle East over a long period of time. That will
come at a price, but think of the price of not having it. When we have economic
problems, it's been caused by disruptions in our oil supply. If we have a force
in Iraq, there will be no disruption in oil supplies."
Costly global commitment
Rumsfeld and Kagan believe that a successful war against Iraq will produce other
benefits, such as serving an object lesson for nations such as Iran and Syria.
Rumsfeld, as befits his sensitive position, puts it rather gently. If a regime
change were to take place in Iraq, other nations pursuing weapons of mass
destruction "would get the message that having them . . . is attracting
attention that is not favorable and is not helpful," he says.
Kagan is more blunt.
"People worry a lot about how the Arab street is going to react," he notes.
"Well, I see that the Arab street has gotten very, very quiet since we started
blowing things up."
The cost of such a global commitment would be enormous. In 2000, we spent $281
billion on our military, which was more than the next 11 nations combined. By
2003, our expenditures will have risen to $378 billion. In other words, the
increase in our defense budget from 1999-2003 will be more than the total amount
spent annually by China, our next largest competitor.
The lure of empire is ancient and powerful, and over the millennia it has driven
men to commit terrible crimes on its behalf. But with the end of the Cold War
and the disappearance of the Soviet Union, a global empire was essentially laid
at the feet of the United States. To the chagrin of some, we did not seize it at
the time, in large part because the American people have never been comfortable
with themselves as a New Rome.
Now, more than a decade later, the events of Sept. 11 have given those advocates
of empire a new opportunity to press their case with a new president. So in
debating whether to invade Iraq, we are really debating the role that the United
States will play in the years and decades to come.
Are peace and security best achieved by seeking strong alliances and
international consensus, led by the United States? Or is it necessary to take a
more unilateral approach, accepting and enhancing the global dominance that,
according to some, history has thrust upon us?
If we do decide to seize empire, we should make that decision knowingly, as a
democracy. The price of maintaining an empire is always high. Kagan and others
argue that the price of rejecting it would be higher still.
That's what this is about.
CONTRIBUTORS TO 2000 REPORT
"Rebuilding America's Defenses," a 2000 report by the Project for the New
American Century, listed 27 people as having attended meetings or contributed
papers in preparation of the report. Among them are six who have since assumed
key defense and foreign policy positions in the Bush administration. And the
report seems to have become a blueprint for Bush's foreign and defense policy.
Paul Wolfowitz John Bolton Eliot Cohen I. Lewis Libby Dov Zakheim Stephen Cambone Return To Top October 2, 2002
October 1,
2002
U.S. Shifts Tactics in al-Qaida Hunt
U.S. Shifts Tactics in al-Qaida Hunt
Troops Seek Out Trapped Westerners
U.S. Effort Aimed At Iraqi Officers
From the Washington Post By Walter Pincus
The Pentagon is preparing a campaign aimed at deterring Iraqi officers from firing chemical or biological weapons during a U.S. invasion because intelligence officials believe President Saddam Hussein has given field commanders conditional authority to use the weapons in the event of an attack, according to defense and intelligence officials. Georgia Says All Rebels Flushed Out of Gorge Return To Top October 1, 2002
September 30,
2002
Pakistan Says India Planning pre-Emptive Strikes A story by Aslam Khan from the Daily Jang of Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD: The government has picked up signals that India has begun putting in
place a plan to carry out pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan in the
eventuality of an American attack on Iraq, well-placed sources revealed to The
News on Sunday.
The sources added that the government was taking the signals seriously and had
ordered preparations to counter any such eventuality. "There have been several
simultaneous developments in the past few days that indicate a sinister game
plan by India against Pakistan," a high-placed official disclosed on the
condition of anonymity.
"The Indians are making ominous moves through their army, navy and the air
force, which has rung alarm bells here and we are taking appropriate counter
measures to be in a position to neutralise any threat," he said.
He revealed that in an abrupt move the Indian army headquarters had ordered all
personnel on leave to report back to the frontline units along the border with
Pakistan by October 1. "More ominously, attack aircraft that were withdrawn to
the rear bases in June are now moving back to forward operating bases," the
official revealed.
Also, he added, the Pakistan Navy had picked up heightened activity of Indian
ships and submarines in the Arabian Sea not far from the approach to the
Pakistani waters.
"Allied intelligence gathered along with these developments indicates that New
Delhi is putting in place arrangements that seem to suspiciously mirror recent
threats hurled by Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
and Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani," he said.
"We believe that the new found Indian keenness for the American advocacy of
pre-emptive military strikes against possible security risks is behind the
latest military moves against Pakistan by New Delhi," the official said.
"It is clear that the moves are a follow-up of the recent statements by Vajpayee
and Advani drawing parallels between the US and Iraq with the alleged
cross-border terrorism across the Line of Control," he added.
"Pakistan is fully conscious of the ominous new developments across its borders
and is adopting appropriate measures to counter any threat to its security on
the land, in the air and the sea," he said.
He, however, refused to elaborate the military measures. "Suffice to say that
our armed forces are not only capable of meeting any eventuality but also fully
competent to counter any threat adequately," he added.
When contacted, senior security analyst Mirza Naseem Anwar Beg said the latest
Indian threatening moves, if related to the American doctrine of unilateralism,
indicated a new international climate that was polarising the established global
security realm.
"The concept of unilateralism, especially in military terms, is a dangerous new
trend," he said. "It is, however, a case of easier said than done when applied
to Pakistan's case."
"India may want to imitate US unilateralism in the conduct of its foreign policy
but what is apparently not clear to India is that even the US is finding it
difficult to garner the support of such longstanding allies as Germany and
France for the contemplated attack against Iraq," Beg said.
"On the face of it, India seems set to take a cue from a likely US attack on
Iraq and launch a similar pre-emptive aggression against Pakistan on the plea of
alleged cross-border terrorism," he said, adding that Islamabad must step up
diplomatic pressure to counter this omnipotent threat.
A senior defence source confirmed to The News that there was unusually
heightened military activity along Pakistan's border.
"The Indian armed forces' directives should be seen in the light of the
aggressive statements by their leaders, which are indicative of their mood to
re-escalate the tension in the region and take matters to an unacceptable level
where they may even resort to use of force," the official said.
Requesting that he not be named, he informed that not only were the Indians
adding to the strength of their naval units in the Arabian Sea, "we have noted
the increasing visits of senior Indian generals to held Kashmir where they are
addressing their troops with military rhetoric at the Line of Control."
Sources said that a high-level Indian delegation had just returned from Tel Aviv
where it attended meetings of the Indo-Israel Joint Commission for Defence
Cooperation.
The objective was to review their rapidly expanding military ties to cater for a
hi-tech missile defence shield for India as well as the sale of Phalcon radar
for use in planes with AWACS.
Israeli defence industry has emerged as India's second largest weapons provider
after Russia with defence related trade between the two countries totalling more
than $1 billion a year.
India has already acquired a powerful Green Pine Early Warning radar system from
Israel, which is reportedly being deployed along the Pakistan border and signed
a multi million dollar deal for purchasing an unspecified number of Aerostal
long-range radar to bolster air defences along the border.
Israel has also supplied avionics and weapons systems for use in Indian Air
Force as well as Naval Air Defence and anti-missile system for use by Indian
Navy, the sources said. "While we object to these military acquisitions, India
must realise that neither is it a super power like the US, nor Pakistan an
isolated and crippled state such as Iraq," the defence source said.
"Pakistan will retaliate with all possible force if subjected to aggression," he
warned. "India should stop equating itself with the US and drawing wrong
analogies between Iraq and Pakistan. It will cut a sorry figure for any
misadventure," he added.
Return To Top September 30, 2002 The enriched uranium seized by Turkish authorities is now said to be 140 grams and not the 15 kg originally reported. CNN says that the two men have been released for lack of evidence, and the uranium is not enriched. It is being tested, but meanwhile the police say it is not a radiation hazard. This would suggest the possibility it is only ore.
The Washington Post reports on September 29, 2002, that the US 1st Cavalry Division is exercising river crossings along a river with characteristics similar to the Euphrates. It quotes soldiers in the exercise as saying the river crossing will be the hard part of any drive to Baghdad: once across the river, the soldiers say, there is nothing to stop them.
The Iraqi Foreign Minister, Mr. Naji Sabri, met with Iran's President, Mr. Seyed M. Khatami, in a move to mend ties and forge an anti-US coalition in view of the impending US attack on Iraq. Return To Top September 30, 2002
September 29,
2002
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War
Strategy
Summary
An idea to unite Jordan and Iraq in a pro-U.S. Hashemite kingdom after
a U.S. war is being floated in diplomatic and opposition circles. The plan
could be Washington's best scenario for ensuring a stable post-war Iraq,
but the United States likely is still weighing the proposal's possible
geopolitical benefits versus its problems and feasibility.
Analysis
As a U.S. war against Iraq appears to be nearing, both Washington and
Middle Eastern players are working to make sure the expected American victory
will result in long-term strategic gains. The idea of a central Iraq populated
by Sunni Arabs joining with Jordan to form one Hashemite kingdom is being
considered as one way to secure such gains.
Such a plan reportedly was discussed at an unusual meeting between Crown
Prince Hassan of Jordan and pro-U.S. Iraqi Sunni opposition members in
London in July. In September, Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth stated that
the U.S. goal in Iraq was to create a united Hashemite kingdom that would
embrace Jordan and Iraq's Sunni areas. Israeli terrorism expert Ehud Sprinzak
recently echoed this sentiment on Russian television Sept. 24.
In a nutshell, the plan may involve uniting Jordan and Sunni-populated
areas of Iraq under the rule of the current Jordanian regime. This could
be done if Iraqi Sunni leaders appeal to King Abdullah with such a request,
which has a weak but still legally valid justification, as Abdullah is
the second cousin of the last Iraqi king, Faisal II, who was overthrown
in 1958.
Who is floating the Iraq-Jordan idea, and who might benefit from its
realization if it ever comes through? Although it might be wishful thinking
by some Iraqi opposition members and Israeli media, it also could bring
strategic benefits to the United States, Israel and Jordan.
Possible Gains for the United States
Sprinzak stated that the authors of a "Hashemite plan" are U.S. Vice
President Dick Cheney and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, both
considered the most hawkish of Bush administration officials. The Russian
television program "Drugoye Vremya" also reports that it was U.S. officials
who twice invited Hassan to meet the Iraqi opposition last summer.
The fact that the Western-based Iraqi opposition completely depends
on Washington supports these allegations. And Washington showed much interest
in the Jordan-Iraqi opposition talks in which the Hashemite idea was discussed. Return To Top September 28, 2002
Support a terrorist, lose your citizenship?
WASHINGTON -- Americans who join foreign terrorists or provide support
for them would lose their citizenship under a bill drafted by Rep. James
V. Hansen, R-Utah.
The bill would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to add terrorist
activity to the list of offenses that could cost Americans their citizenship.
Americans can be stripped of citizenship now if they commit certain acts
with the intention of giving up citizenship. Those acts include voluntarily
committing treason, attempting to overthrow the government, joining a foreign
army at war with the United States or declaring allegiance to a foreign
country.
The bill would apply to people with links to groups on the State Department's
terrorist list. Hansen's staff said the bill is not aimed at people who
inadvertently or unknowingly help terrorists.
"This bill is not going anywhere. It is flatly unconstitutional," said
Timothy Edgar, legislative counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union.
Edgar said terrorists have a right to citizenship unless they intentionally
relinquish it as part of their crimes. He said the bill could unfairly
target people who sympathize with groups on the State Department's watch
list but have committed no terrorist acts. Return To Top September 29, 2002
US pressure on Pakistan not working: Vajpayee
NEW DELHI: India's ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) on Thursday called
an attack on Akshardham Temple in restive Gujarat state part of "a larger
conspiracy," as a junior minister said all options, including war were
being considered against Pakistan.
The Hindu nationalist party's national executive, attended by Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and chaired by his deputy Lal Krishna Advani,
said the attack on the temple showed the "frustrations" of militants active
in held Kashmir. "The dastardly attack on the temple in Gujarat is a part
of a larger conspiracy to weaken our country, disrupt our social fabric
and bring our polity under strain by instigating social tensions," the
BJP said in a resolution after the emergency meeting.
The BJP said it would observe next Tuesday as "Anti-Terrorist Day" and
said the government would consider issuing all Indians identity cards and
compiling a citizens register. Indian investigators, meanwhile, say they
believe the group linked to the temple attack, Tehrik-e-Kasas, was a front
for the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e- Muhammad -- both have been banned
by Pakistan. But Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said on Thursday
that pressure by Washington on Islamabad to curb militants did not seem
to be working. "It seems so," Vajpayee said in reply to a journalist's
query that efforts of the US and India to press Pakistan to stop supporting
militants were failing. Vajpayee said India would be "bold and vigilant"
to prevent such attacks in future.
However, in Washington, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher sidestepped
questions on whether the United States believes Pakistan-based militants
were responsible for the temple attack. "There's been at this point, as
far as we know, no claim of responsibility, we would note that Pakistan
has condemned the attack without reservation and has denied any involvement,"
he said and added that Secretary State Collin Powell had called India's
foreign minister to convey his condolences on the attack. "It's imperative
that violent groups who seek to further terrorism and violence in the region
not be given an opportunity to achieve their goals. We're continuing our
effort to promote dialogue as the means to resolve tensions and conflict
in South Asia," he said.
In Kuala Lumpur, India's foreign minister said the gunmen responsible
for the temple attack used similar weapons, supplies and tactics as the
group that attacked Indian Parliament last year. Sinha reiterated India's
claim that Pakistanis orchestrated the assault on Parliament, but stopped
short of saying Pakistanis were also behind the temple attack. "As soon
as we have definite, firm proof, we will come out and share it with the
rest of the world," Sinha told a gathering of political analysts and researchers
during a visit here. "We have evidence now that in all the previous attacks
there was the hand of organisations called Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen,"
he added. But Sinha added that the authorities did not yet have sufficient
evidence to say clearly, saying it was too early to apportion blame.
Sinha said India had suffered "the worst form of cross-border terrorism"
in recent months, which he blamed on Pakistanis. He said his country's
"patience has been sorely tested" by the temple massacre, but stressed
that India wanted peace with its neighbour. "The important point India
is making is this ... remove the gun from our head," Sinha said, referring
to Pakistan. "We are prepared to talk to you. Let's again engage in a dialogue."
Vajpayee seemed to be coming under pressure to take firmer action against
Islamabad from his own party and its hard-line Hindu allies, including
right-wing leader Bal Thackeray who threatened to pull his Shiv Sena party
out of the coalition. "Deliver the good, not words," Thackeray told reporters
in Bombay, adding: "Otherwise, we can leave this government. Vajpayee keeps
repeating that we will not tolerate what's happening, but he does nothing.
We will quit the government rather than sit and watch our country being
insulted." Return To Top September 28, 2002
After Saddam: Fledgling states, oceans of oil
BEIJING - The ongoing controversy between the United States and
its allies over whether to make war on Iraq is in many respects out of
date. The war is already on, and the real issue is not whether to wage
it but how to win it.
The war began the moment the United States declared that it was going
to overthrow Saddam Hussein. It was already bombing Iraq's two no-fly zones
but, most important, it was cordoning off Saddam politically and preparing
for his demise.
To stop the war after months of relentless propaganda against Saddam's
government would be to lose the war. In fact, Saddam would be emboldened
to step up his rearmament campaign. More important, backing off now would
give greater sway to the anti-US hardliners in Saudi Arabia and Iran. And
in fact the real target of the war on Iraq is not Iraq itself but Saudi
Arabia.
By toppling Saddam, the United States will gain control of the Iraqi
and Kuwaiti oil reserves, shielding itself from the Saudi threat of raising
oil prices and thus choking the already shaky Western economies. As well,
with its hands on Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil, Washington will be in a better
position to influence the power struggle in Saudi Arabia over the succession,
and to make sure the anti-US elements there who armed and supported al-Qaeda's
terrorists are eliminated.
Iran would also feel the pinch of the US presence in Iraq, though here
it is more difficult to assess whether the moderates would be able to use
this new US presence to increase the pace of reforms, or whether the radicals
would successfully wave the flag of a US threat.
The unanswered question is: Couldn't Saudi Arabia be pressured into
toeing the US line without waging a risky war on Iraq? The United States
in effect controls Saudi security; it should have been easier to use existing
US clout to force the Saudis' hand than to start a war with Iraq.
The latter course holds a huge number of risks, including the fate of
the Kurds in northern Iraq, the Shi'ites in the south and the tribes loyal
to Saddam in the center. Even with Saddam gone that picture will remain
the same and it is not clear how it will be solved (see War on Iraq: Costs
and consequences, September 19).
It is not very clear why the US chose what appears to be the most difficult
track of doing in Saddam and thus putting indirect pressure on the Saudis,
rather than pressuring the Saudis directly.
The US choice appears to be similar to that made in Afghanistan. The
invasion there put pressure on Pakistan, which was, with Saudi Arabia,
the greatest supporter of the Taliban regime. Pakistan understood the new
tune and, thanks partly to various and diverse demands from China and India,
decided to sing along, cutting off its aid to the al-Qaeda fighters. The
US strategy on Iraq appears the same: topple Saddam, install a new leader,
and force Saudis to follow along.
If it is going to win the ongoing war, the United States must understand
that Iraq could be more complicated than Afghanistan, for several reasons.
War on Iraq could irk Muslim sensibilities by bringing infidels arguably
too close to the holy ground of Mecca. Furthermore, this could give Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon the opportunity to reoccupy the Palestinian
territories and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. This
would further inflame Arab and Muslim sentiments, which have been the hotbed
and the fuel of the anti-US terrorist actions.
The Afghans, after the US-led war in their country, have been provided
aid and greater hope for peace and development; in other words they now
have something to lose, new pressure points the US can use to manage them.
The Palestinians must be given something to lose as well, ie, a state and
hope for development. If they have nothing they simply can't be managed,
other than by eliminating the problem by wiping them out. But this is not
possible because of the ethical values shared by the US and the Israelis.
Not only that, but while it might be possible to conceive of erasing the
Chechens as they have few brethren outside Chechnya, the Palestinians have
Arab brethren all over the Middle East and Africa who are already simmering
over the plight of the Palestinians.
The creation of a Palestinian state should thus be the cornerstone of
the peace settlement after the war on Iraq. This more than anything else
would give clout to the new US presence in the Persian Gulf region and
could help win over the Saudis and Iranians.
But this US presence in the area won't be without rewards - there is
the oil issue. After the war the US can think of controlling directly or
indirectly most of the Gulf's oil. Moreover, with its foothold in Central
Asia, which is not limited to Afghanistan but also includes a few ex- Soviet
republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus, the US will have a big say
on oil there too.
Some 30 years after the oil shock that brought the West to its knees,
the power of Western oil companies will be vindicated. It could well be
the resurrection of the Seven Sisters - the seven mega-corporations that
dominate the global oil industry (Exxon, Gulf, Texaco, Mobil, Socal, BP
and Shell) - although some of their names and profiles have changed.
The Western hold on oil will be the last straw for the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is already weakened by years of
division. The West will be able to maintain the price of oil at the level
fit for the varying economic needs of development.
In the short term the toppling of Saddam, the creation of a Palestinian
state, the emergence of a new, moderate Iran, a decrease in oil prices,
new military spending and a new feeling of safety in the West could help
trigger an economic recovery some time in 2004.
Still remaining to be tackled would be the possible widespread resentment
among the Arabs, who will have to tolerate a greater US presence in the
region, and discontent among the Europeans, who will feel they were forced
into joining the United States in another ill- conceived war. These two
problems loom very large in the second half of 2003 and early 2004 even
if the war itself goes perfectly well.
Moreover, if the US is bogged down for decades in the region, its control
of the region's oil will be good for China, but not as good for Russia.
It will be good for China because while the US is preoccupied with the
Middle East it will have no desire to get involved in the even messier
picture of China, which will carry on with its economic development and
reforms without fear of the United States. The US control of oil and parallel
development of alternative fuels is fully consistent with the interests
of the Chinese, who are net oil importers and therefore keen on a low oil
price.
It's a different story for Russia, which is a net oil exporter. Its
oil policies will have to be in tune with US decisions, as Washington can
always play its Middle East oil card against Russia. The practical choice
for Russia, then, will be to toe the US economic line even more closely.
The payoff for Moscow for swallowing its pride would be to have its oil
companies among the new Seven Sisters, which in a few years could bring
about a new isolation of China.
In this scenario, China could find itself out of the energy loop and
dependent for oil and technology on the goodwill of the United States and
its partners. China has perhaps a couple of years to forestall such a predicament
by proving that it does not want to be America's enemy or even its adversary,
but a partner. The alternative, counting on some of America's plans to
go awry, could lead China down a long and lonely road. Return To Top September 29, 2002
September 28,
2002
UN resists tough resolution Excerpts from an article in the Arab News published from Saudi Arabia.
PARIS/WASHINGTON, 28 September - The United States failed yesterday to win over key UN Security Council members in its campaign to push through a tough UN resolution effectively threatening Iraq with military action.
While Washington had the firm backing of Britain, the other three veto-wielding Council members, France, China and Russia, remained steadfast in their view that weapons inspections by United Nations experts had to take place first.
French President Jacques Chirac resisted the diplomatic overtures from Washington and told US President George W. Bush in a telephone conversation that wide UN backing on disarming Iraq was the only way forward.
"The president (Chirac) also reiterated that France remains more than ever in favor of a two-step approach and that this is the view of the majority of the international community, given the seriousness of the decisions to be taken and their consequences," Chirac spokeswoman Catherine Colonna said in Paris.
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said yesterday there was no clear proof in Britain's dossier published this week on Iraq that Baghdad had chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. Saddam agreed last week to allow in UN inspectors without conditions but the United States, whose declared policy is to seek the Iraqi leader's removal, said he could not be trusted.
Yet both Russia and France believe his sincerity must at least be tested with an attempt to undertake the inspections. "It would now be an unforgivable error to delay the dispatch of international monitors to Iraq," Ivanov said. Chirac spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday and they agreed the Iraq crisis had to be handled within a UN framework, Colonna said.
Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, speaking after meeting French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin in Paris, said Beijing wanted Baghdad to comply with UN disarmament resolutions without restriction. "At the same time, we have to respect Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Zhu said. "If the weapons inspections do not take place, if we do not have clear proof and if we do not have the authorization of the Security Council, we cannot launch a military attack on Iraq - otherwise, there would be incalculable consequences."
German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said yesterday he was confident a dispute with the United States over an attack on Iraq would be resolved and he planned a trip to Washington soon.
Fischer said Germany would do everything possible to get UN weapons inspectors back into Iraq "to avoid a great tragedy" but said the German government opposed any military strike aimed at removing Saddam Hussein.
Return To Top September 28, 2002
Israel: Deif back at top of most wanted list after surviving IAF helicopter attack
Excerpts from \an article by By MARGOT DUDKEVITCH in the Jerusalem Post
The moment it became clear that Hamas military wing commander Mohammed Deif had survived an Israeli missile assault on his car in Gaza City - and was not killed as earlier believed - he was once again placed at the top of Israel's most wanted list, security officials said Friday.
Deif, who was pulled out of the back seat of the burning car lost an eye, has shrapnel in his head and burns to the upper part of the body, Israel's Channel 1 television said Friday. According to the report Deif has been taken to a Hamas safe house, where he is receiving treatment.
"The reports that I received from our people were that Deif was indeed injured," Science Minister of Science Matan Vilnai told Army radio confirming repots that Deif had survived. Earlier reports said that he had been killed inthe attack on Thursday afternoon in Gaza City's Sheikh Radwan Quarter, a Hamas stronghold.
Initially Israeli officials dismissed Hamas statements that Deif had survived the attack, and maintained he had been killed in the assault along with his deputy and bodyguard, Abdel Rahim Hamdan, 27 and Issa Abu Ajra, 29, who were with him in the car. Thirty other bystanders were wounded in the assault, including Palestinian schoolchildren.
Deif, who tops Israel's wanted list as a bomb mastermind from the early 1990's, is held responsible for the deaths of dozens of Israelis in bus bombings and kidnappings.
Israel has made several attempts to arrest or assassinate Deif since the onset of the so-called Al Aksa intifada two years ago.
Since July, Deif, once a deputy Hamas military commander, moved into the number one spot, replacing Saleh Shehadeh, after he was assassinated by Israel.
Return To Top September 28, 2002
Joint force to patrol Herat, Kandahar highway
From Pakistan's Frontier Post of Peshawar.
ISLAMABAD (Agencies): Officials of Kandahar and Heart provinces after extensive talks concerning issues of trade and security in western and southwestern parts of the country, have decided to jointly patrol the Heart-Kandahar highway, a major commercial link, the BBC reported.Quoting the spokesman for Kandahar governor, BBC reported that the representative of central government as well as commander of US forces in Afghanistan also participated in the talks. The radio reported that during the talks issues concerning trade, custom and excise also came under discussion. It further said that the monetary officials of Herat were exchanging one US $ for 2000 Afghani however, the central government's exchange rate was fixed as one US $ for 4500 Afghani. Similarly, there were issues regarding collection of revenues in each province's territory. Both sides have reached an agreement successfully and governor Heart has agreed to follow the central government's instructions. Responding to a query regarding the participation of Gen Maclien in the talks, the spokesman said that the talks were initiated on the demand of Afghan President Hamid Karzai to discuss all the pending issues more openly and Gen Maclien played the role of a mediator. It was also decided after talks that a delegation would be formed under the chairmanship of the central government to decide issues between the two provinces in a peaceful manner.
Return To Top September 28, 2002
Debka: CIA Undercover Unit in E. Iran According to our sources, a CIA undercover unit has entered Iran through Zabul, in the Sistan Baluchistan province. Its assignment is to stir up dissent among the largest population in the area, the Baluchi tribes. This province is of small strategic value per se. Nonetheless, the CIA finds it valuable in two ways:
1. The Baluchis, one of Iran's impoverished and neglected minorities, control the dope and contraband smuggling routes from Iran to the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf destinations. Â Last December, al Qaeda fugitives, including some 4,000 Saudis, began using these obscure routes on their way from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Lebanon and other points in the Middle East. The CIA's undercover unit has undertaken the tall order of closing this al Qaeda escape route, while gathering intelligence on its nefarious traffic.
2. Â This American unit is also keeping a close watch on the hundreds of al Qaeda fighters who have set up a base in Iranian Baluchistan with a view to penetrating the base and breaking it up.
Tehran becoming aware of the CIA unit's penetration hurriedly whisked the most senior 30 al Qaeda operatives and mid-level commanders to hiding places in Tehran and the holy city of Qom. Reporting this, our intelligence sources note that least five of the most high-ranking al Qaeda officers given refuge in Iran were in the group moved out to safe places.
In late May, Arab intelligence sources in the Gulf claimed Iran was harboring no more than two senior al Qaeda operatives: Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian on the FBI's most-wanted list, and Mahfouz Ould Wali, from Mauritania. The two, according to our intelligence sources, turn out to be no more than mid-level operatives. What the Arab sources omitted to mention was the three truly high-ranking al-Qaeda officials given a safe berth in Iran. Their identities Tehran is keeping under wraps and are still unknown to US intelligence. This trio, our sources say, are lodged in separate locations in Qom under the watchful eye of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The US administration has been running close-up surveillance of the Iran scene in search of incidents and data useful for destabilizing the Islamic Republican government. A group of 50 ex-Iranians living in California were selected by the Interviewing Service of American, Inc. to run day-long telephone campaigns to private citizens and companies in Iran, in order to solicit real-time information on current events in the Islamic republic.
Return To Top September 27, 2002
News of the Weird: Iraq not to give asylum to American
By Mariana Baabar writing in the Jang of Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD: Iraqi Ambassador to Pakistan, Dr K A Rawi, said here Monday that an American citizen, who has spent several years in the US armed forces would not be allowed by Baghdad to seek political asylum inside Iraq.
"Even if President Bush wanted to seek asylum inside Iraq, we would not give it to him", the ambassador told The News when he was asked to comment on the story regarding an American citizen, Manny Hubbard Calderon, who had approached the Iraqi embassy to seek political asylum in Iraq.
"This man has not given us any request in writing for seeking political asylum. We do not have any proof about his case and whether his case is for real as he claims. He is certainly not welcome to come to the Embassy of Iraq. This is against our policy," the ambassador added.
Calderon has been in Pakistan for nearly a month now with his visa expiring at the end of October. He wants to seek asylum in Iraq, as he alleges that the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the US has been harassing him for years and he has reached the end of his patience.
The United States Embassy in Islamabad says that though they have read reports of an American citizen, Manny Hubbard Calderon, trying to seek political asylum in Iraq, but according to the US Privacy Act they are unable to either confirm or deny these reports.
Return To Top September 27, 2002
Berlin ponders peacekeeping role in Iraq after US intervention
Germany, trying to patch up its strained
relations with the US, is to consider a peacekeeping role in Iraq
after a planned American intervention, the daily Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung said Thursday.
The report cited German foreign ministry sources as saying that the
government would "not rule out anything", regarding Germany's military
contribution after a US assault on Iraq.
The sources hinted at the possibility of Germany's participation
in a multi-national security force like the one which was deployed
in Afghanistan following the overthrow of the Taliban regime.
Political observers here view the latest report as a sign of
Berlin's reconciliatory overtures towards Washington following a
political fall-out over Germany's steadfast refusal to back a US
attack on Iraq and remarks by the German justice minister, comparing
the American President George W. Bush with Hitler.
The White House reacted by refusing to congratulate Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder on his tight reelection victory on Sunday.
[We'd like to ask the German Government that if it's okay for Germany to oppose a US attack on Iraq because a majority of the German people are against it, is it okay for the United States to attack Iraq because a majority of the American people are for it? In the event of a military threat against Germany from the old Soviet Union, would it have been okay for the US not just to refuse to help on grounds of the people's wishes, but also to heap abuse on Germany for defending itself? And what is this business of refusing to participate even if the UN sanctions an attack? We know the United States these days obeys the UN only if it suits the American national interest. So how is Germany any better? Editor]
Return To Top September 27, 2002
News of the Mildly Weird: Pentagon Explores Use Of Chemicals Extracts from and Associated Press story appearing in Military.com
WASHINGTON - The U.S. military is exploring ways to use drugs such as Valium to calm people without killing them during riots or other crowd control situations where lethal weapons are inappropriate. Some critics say the effort violates international treaties and federal laws against chemical weapons, an allegation the military denies. "It's a rotten idea to drug rioters," said Edward Hammond of the Sunshine Project, a chemical and biological weapons watchdog group that is the program's chief critic. "Beyond being a horrible idea, it's illegal." The Pentagon has long tried to develop nonlethal weapons that would incapacitate or repel people with little risk of killing them. The effort intensified in the 1990s after hostile mobs confronted U.S. troops during peacekeeping and humanitarian missions in places like Somalia, Bosnia and Haiti. Researchers at a Pentagon-funded institute at Pennsylvania State University prepared a 50-page report that year saying that developing calmative weapons "is achievable and desirable" and suggesting drugs like Valium for further research. One hurdle for using such drugs for riot control, the researchers wrote, is finding a way to deliver the substances to large groups, such as in a spray or mist. Another problem would be figuring out how to prevent other injuries, such as by people falling down if they are knocked unconscious, the researchers wrote. The chemical weapons treaty allows military and police forces to use riot control agents, such as tear gas and pepper spray, that produce temporary irritation. The treaty bans use of chemicals that incapacitate people, however. The report…..said the American participants agreed that research into calmatives "must be conducted in a manner consistent with our obligations under international law, including the law of war." Return To Top September 27, 2002
September 26,
2002
Focus on Gujarat, India The attack by two terrorists, presumably Muslim, on a temple in Gujarat is possibly the start of a crisis more severe than anything India has faced in five decades. Troubled Kashmir is on the periphery of India. Gujarat is one of India's most progressive and most dynamic states. Terrorism and insurgency in Kashmir can be contained. If it spreads to Gujarat, it cannot be contained, and the existence of India as we have come to understand it after 1947 will be in peril.
At Orbat.com we will wait to see if others more qualified will comment on the coming crisis. If not, we will attempt to explain it to our readers as best we can.
The Vishwa Hindu Parishad is a right wing organization, part political and part political. A bandh is a strike in which shops, educational institutions, businesses, offices, and public places are shut down. It is a time honored Indian rite of protest, and in tense situations like this presents great dangers. The Ganpati festival is one of the major religious festivals of India; most Indians are religious, but few can match the Gujaratis in their fervor.
The earlier anti-Muslim riots were aided and abetted by the State Administration, exploiting inter-community tensions for political purpose. Thus the references to the state government taking no chances this time. This will not be because the state government has seen the error of its ways, but because under India's constitution the Center can dismiss a state government and impose direct rule if the Center deems a breakdown of law and order to have occurred, The local politicians lose power and other unpleasant consequences can flow.
Because of India's vast size, policing is done by many organizations. Non-Indian readers need not concern themselves with the alphabet soup. They need only be aware that the police are exhausted, badly equipped, badly trained, and badly led for this kind of duty. When the Indian populace goes berserk, no police anywhere in the world can do anything except run for their lives, even though the populace is usually armed with nothing more than staffs and iron implements, stones and bricks. Then all that remains is to call in the Army, which in this case is on standby. Fear of the army usually calms all but the most serious disturbances, but in Gujarat today we have trained militants who have fought the Army for years in Kashmir and have turned their attention to new arenas. The Army method of quelling mass disturbances is to impose tight curfews, and then shoot everyone in violation with an impartial and ruthless efficiency. This has always worked in the past. It may not help against gunmen in densely populated localities who will snipe and run, which will make the Army very, very unhappy.
The National Security Guards are supposedly an elite counter-terrorist force and were used to regain the temple and eliminate the terrorists. In reality, as the article concerning them makes clear, the NSG has for many years, focused on protecting the sorry hides of central government politicians - the very same ones who have gotten India into mess after mess, crisis after crisis, for the last fifteen years. [We have, of course, an orbat for the NSG, but it is not available in the regular subscriber part of the site.]
India is a young democracy in an ancient land, a land that traditionally has been astonishingly peaceful, but intermittently violent in the extreme. The level of violence in India today numbs many Westerners. Yet, this violence is a price Indians pay for their democracy. India, like China and the old Soviet Union, could suppress all major violence if it were a totalitarian state. That would be the peace of the grave.
Your editor, as an Indian, does not excuse the violence committed by Muslims against Hindus, Hindus against Muslims, and the state against everyone. He does ask readers to remember that no one said democracy was easy, efficient, or even safe - the rate of individual violence in America should remind one of that. Return To Top September 26, 2002
VHP bandh begins, Army on standby
AHMEDABAD/VADODARA/SURAT/RAJKOT: As the VHP-sponsored Bharat bandh began on Thursday, the Modi government is taking no chances with the law and order situation in the state.
With memories of February 28 still fresh in their minds, the government has made special arrangements to avoid a relapse of communal riots in all sensitive cities and towns.
The Ahmedabad police authorities have ensured that almost all of its 8,000-strong force patrol the streets on Thursday. Both police and Border Wing jawans have been deployed at sensitive points. Police commissioner K R Kaushik said, "Army has also been called in and kept on standby. All the senior police officials would be co-ordinating the bandobast."
Twenty companies of SRP and three companies of Border Wing jawans will be strategically placed in trouble-prone areas like Shah-e-Alam, Gomtipur, Bapunagar, Rakhiyal, Danilimda which saw some of the worst communal violence six months ago.
A senior official told TNN: "Even the non-field staff who are deployed at each police station for clerical jobs will be used to heighten police presence in the city and increase patrolling. Another 600 additional policemen have been called from the police headquarters."
The source said: "We are also keeping in touch with the level-headed members of both communities and are monitoring the activities of those with criminal background."
Security has been tightened in Vadodara especially after it saw an outbreak of violence during the Ganpati immersion festivities last week.
A large portion of the forces that arrived for Ganesh immersion have also been retained. A Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) company is also scheduled to arrive.
Vadodara joint commissioner of police P C Thakur said eight companies of the State Reserve Police (SRP), three companies of Border Range Home Guards and two companies of Rapid Action Force (RAF) will patrol the streets. Three superintendents of police, 13 police inspectors, 25 sub-inspectors and 200 trainees from outside the city have also been retained.
Apart from this, Vadodara has asked for 500 more home guards. The Army will be kept on standby and used as a "confidence-building measure". Additional deployments have also been made around places of worship. "These include the Atladra Swaminarayan Temple, the havelis in the city and other religious places," Thakur said. Religious leaders have been asked to help in maintaining peace and 136 persons were put under preventive arrests.
District Superintendent of Police Piyush Patel said more policemen have been deployed at the Swaminarayan temple at Sokhda and the Kayavarohan temple.
Surat on the other hand has received two companies of the Army and one company of the CRPF. Police commissioner V K Gupta said that one company of the RAF which is already in the city.
As part of preventive measures, 84 people with criminal records have been detained, Gupta added. Flag marches by RAF will continue in all sensitive parts of the city, particularly Athwa, Mahidharpura, Salabatpura, Limbayat, Rander and other places.
Patrolling would be further intensified with additional deployment of over 60 vehicles to keep a strict watch on sensitive spots. Return To Top September 26, 2002
Lack of funds saps NSG strength
PRATYUSH KANTH writing in the
Times of India.
NEW DELHI: The National Security Guards (NSG) comprise the only specialised force dealing with critical situations like the Akshardham temple operation. But its repeated requests to the government for updating arms, equipment and men have gone unheeded.
Ironically, Rs 480 crore [Rupees one crore equals $200,000 at the exchange rate, and possibly $1 million or more at the purchasing parity rate] is spent annually on the security of politicians and bureaucrats in Delhi. Every day, more than 12,000 security personnel are deployed for their protection. Quoting recent intelligence reports, a source in the NSG told this paper that after the December 13 attack on parliament last year, the threat of a terrorist strike in any part of the country had increased manifold.
Keeping in view the tense scenario, the skills and the training imparted to NSG officials needed to be constantly improved.
"Unfortunately, a force created to perform counter-terrorist and counter-hijacking operations is not the best-equipped force. We are treated like any other paramilitary force, but now the time has come for the government to make us the most elite force of the country by providing us better infrastructure and upgraded technology,'' the source said.
The NSG, with a strength of about 3,900 officials, has more than 1,500 posts vacant. "The army is on high alert and officials from the armed forces who were supposed to join us are not being sent. There are also few takers in the central police organisations to join us on deputation since we do not offer any added perks. The mindset in the home ministry also needs a change,'' an official said.
The home ministry needs to accept the NSG's old proposal demanding a 25 per cent special financial allowance for its officials. "Why will a paramilitary official come on deputation to us, undergo rigorous training and then die in a terrorist operation without even getting some financial incentives?'' the official said.
"If the government can spend so much on the security of the elite, why can't it give money to a force which can help in saving the lives of innocent citizens?'' the NSG official asked.
Return To Top September 26, 2002 Leader from the Times of India
One of the maxims propounded by Chinese master strategist Sun Tzu in The Art of War is to "expect the unexpected". Perhaps he should have added, "but also expect the expected".
At a time when the eyes of the nation were riveted on the successful elections in Kashmir, and we had steeled ourselves to deal with large-scale violence to disrupt the second round of polling, the terrorists did strike - but at the Akshar-dham temple in Gandhinagar. Expect the unexpected. But was it really so unexpected?
The scars left by the post-Godhra riots have still not healed fully. The healing process was certainly not helped by the intemperate remarks of chief minister Narendra Modi during his 'Gaurav Yatra'. It doesn't take a great strategist to figure out that terrorists would obviously try to reopen these wounds, in the hope of tearing apart India's secular fabric. Indeed, rumours of an impending strike had been in the air for quite some time, and security was even stepped up - but only for some VVIP residences. The police had reportedly also alerted multiplexes, but didn't perceive any threat to the high-profile temple of the globally influential Swaminarayan sect. The price for this complacence was paid by many innocent lives.
Mercifully, in marked contrast to the laxity in the wake of Godhra, both the state and Central governments swiftly swung into action. The army was quickly deployed in sensitive areas. And political and community leaders alike hastened to condemn the attack and appeal for peace and restraint. Unfortuna-tely, that message doesn't seem to have reached the organisations which have called for bandhs, both in the state and nationally. At a time like this, our two prime concerns should be to express solidarity with the victims of the attack and to rally together to defeat the subversive intentions of the terrorists. It is not clear how a bandh achieves either objective. The terrorists' ultimate intention is to disrupt the normal functioning of the community - and we mean community in the broadest sense here, cutting across religious and all other self-created divides. Provocations like the Gandhinagar attack are aimed at shutting down daily life and forcing citizens into a mindset of fear and uncertainty. Calling a bandh at this stage helps the terrorists achieve their objective; indeed, it amounts to collaborating with them. All of us should remember that.
Return To Top September 26, 2002
September 25,
2002
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad
Via Reuters By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
LONDON (Reuters) - President Saddam Hussein has dug trenches around Baghdad and centralized the command of the Republican Guards in preparation for a U.S. attack, Iraqi opposition members said on Monday. Return To Top september 25, 2002
French troops move to Ivory Coast battlezone
Reuters by Alistair Thomson Return To Top September 25, 2002
Pakistan Arrests 2 Terror Suspects
From the Associated Press By RIAZ KHAN
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) - Pakistani police and FBI agents have arrested two men suspected of links to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network in a joint raid in a residential area of Peshawar, officials said Monday. Return To Top September 24, 2002
Nepal: Troops Kill 76 Maoist Rebels
Associated Press By BINAJ GURUBACHARYA
KATMANDU, Nepal (AP) - Government soldiers in Nepal's mountains killed some 76 rebels in a continuing drive to wipe out insurgents who want to topple the constitutional monarchy, an official said Monday. Return To Top September 25, 2002
September 24,
2002 Return To Top September 24, 2002
Return To Top September 24, 2002 Return To Top September 24, 2002
September 23,
2002
Saddam May Get First Strike in: Israel Is Prime Target
Saddam May Get First Strike in: Israel Is Prime
Target
DEBKAfile’s military sources point to the danger of Iraqi ruler Saddam
Hussein attempting to turn the tables on the American offensive against
his regime by stealing a leaf from the Bush administration’s newly- enunciated
first-strike strategy.
An Iraqi pre-emptive could take three forms:
The latest official pronouncements have played down any such threat
to Israel.
US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Thursday, September 19,
that he trusted Israel would not react if struck by Iraqi missiles, while
the Israel chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon said last week that he
is less worried about the Iraqi threat than he is by Palestinian terror.
Nonetheless, neither official is oblivious to the possibility of an Iraqi
first strike action and both the United States and Israel have made appropriate
preparations. DEBKAfile reports as a certainty that, far from refraining
to respond, Israel will reply to any Iraqi strike by making its military
presence known to Iraq in the full strength.
In its latest issue, on September 20, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reported that,
on September 10, the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard
Myers, and the head of the Central Command, General Tommy Franks, informed
President Bush they had wound up the preparations for war and it was over
to the president for the countdown to D-Day. The exclusive report noted
that covert military operations are advancing stage by stage, concurrently
with the White House’s all-out bid for support in and outside the United
Nations and in the US Congress.
“It is a kind of modular exercise” - one high-placed Washington
source put it, "structured so that when it is completed, the commander
in chief can signal the transition to open war without further preliminaries
on the ground.”
DEBKA-Net-Weekly ’s military sources report that special forces units
from the United States,Britain, Turkey,Jordan are operational inside Iraq.
A steel ring furthermore encloses Iraq by land and sea, some of its links
formed by bases in such countries as Saudi Arabia (despite its ifs and
buts - as we first revealed on August 2), Egypt,Qatar, Bahrain,Oman, Kuwait.
Baghdad has meanwhile announced that it will not admit inspectors dispatched
in accordance with the American- formulated resolution.
Cutting through this diplomatic cat’s cradle, Franks stepped forward
Saturday, September 21, to confirm his forces are ready to undertake whatever
activities and actions may be directed as soon as the president makes the
decision to go to war. He spoke while touring US bases in Kuwait after
calling two unscheduled training exercises that could quickly be converted
into war action in neighboring Iraq.
The evidence in hand at the moment points to the first or second week
of October as the likeliest time for the overt side of the war to be launched
by Washington - barring any unforeseen Iraqi pre-emptive move.
“As a matter of common sense and self-defense”, says the paper, “America
will act against such emerging threats before they are fully formed”. It
is therefore willing to launch pre- emptive military strikes against perceived
dangers posed by tyrant state and terrorist networks before they reach
American shores. Terrorists and rogue states were identified as the common
enemy of the world’s great powers. “The greatest danger our nation faces
lies at the crossroads of radicalism and technology.”
The paper addresses the transformation of national security institutions,
stressing the need to improve intelligence.
Return To Top September 23, 2002
Yemen Arrests Suspected Al Qaeda Members
Yemen is holding four Yemeni men on suspicion of links to Osama bin
Laden's al Qaeda network following a shootout between the suspects and
security forces, a security official said on Saturday.
He said one of five suspects, identified as Yahya Saleh Mejali, also
known as Abu Saif, died in hospital and a second suspect and two security
officers were being treated for wounds after the gunfight broke out late
on Friday when forces raided the men's hideout in a northern suburb of
the capital Sanaa.
"One of the suspects has died in hospital and investigations have started
with the others," the official told Reuters.
The official said authorities suspect that other members of the group
fled during the gunfight. He said security forces continued to comb Rawdah
suburb.
Yemen is keen to shake off its reputation as a haven for Muslim militants
and has said it was holding 85 people arrested in a manhunt for members
of al Qaeda, blamed by Washington for the September 11 attacks on the United
States.
Yemen on Wednesday dismissed reports that U.S. special forces could
launch covert operations in Yemen against militants believed to have fled
Afghanistan. The Arab state said it would use only its own troops to hunt
down al Qaeda suspects.
Foreign Minister Abubakr al-Qirbi said in remarks published on Saturday
in the London- based Asharq al-Awsat daily that Yemeni forces were still
chasing a small number of Qaeda suspects.
"Yemen recently set up 13 security centers in remote areas and will
expand these operations because we believe that in this way we will be
able to follow these elements which are still hiding among tribesmen,"
Qirbi told the newspaper.
Yemen's parliament last week set up a commission to probe alleged human
rights violations by Yemeni security forces in their crackdown on supporters
of bin Laden, a Saudi born dissident.
Amnesty International has said thousands of people have been detained,
including academics, journalists and children as young as 12.
Return To Top September 23, 2002
India, not al-Qaeda behind bombings: Moin
ISLAMABAD, September 22 (PNS): Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider said
on Saturday there was no conclusive evidence of al-Qaeda involvement in
bloody attacks on Western targets this year and suggested bitter rival
India may have financed them.
Moin told Reuters al-Qaeda suspects arrested this month came to Pakistan
as fugitives, not to carry out attacks, and terrorists were thought to
blame for bombing the US consulate in June and killing 11 French naval
engineers in May.
Moin said in an interview he believed these attacks as well as others
on four Christian targets in the past year were financed from a single
source. He said he had no concrete proof, but suggested India's intelligence
service could have financed operations carried out by the Muslim radicals
without them knowing.
Moin said he had no evidence to show whether India or al-Qaeda was providing
the finance but added: "So far we have been unable to establish any links
with al-Qaeda, and we have not found al-Qaeda involved against the state
in Pakistan so far. "They are found in Pakistan, but it is more to save
their lives -- a sanctuary, which they are not finding in Pakistan."
Moin said there had been about 200 cases of bomb blasts or sabotage
in Pakistan in the past three years, of which only four or five had been
solved. "And it of course was pointing towards India," he said of those
cases.
Asked why India should want to carry out such acts of sabotage in Pakistan,
he replied: "They would like to disrupt. They would like to see that Pakistan
does not make progress. They would like to see that no investment comes
here."
"They would like to paint...that everything is in turmoil here and there
are many terrorist groups here and to give us a bad name." Moin said the
consulate bombing was thought to have been the work of al Almi, an offshoot
of the Harkat-ul- Mujahideen militant group, which is also accused of plotting
to kill military ruler President Pervez Musharraf in April. He said 19
members of al Almi had been arrested, including "Sharib", the suspected
mastermind of the consulate blast. "They have no connection with al-Qaeda,"
he said.
"This is a local group based in Karachi (made up of) those who think
that the government should not have sided with the United States in this
war on terror."
Moin said Sharib was a suspect in another suicide bombing that killed
the 11 Frenchmen and three Pakistanis on May 8 but had denied this under
interrogation.
He said that of 10 people detained after a raid on an al-Qaeda hideout
10 days ago, five were thought to be al-Qaeda members and all of these
had been handed over to the United States.
Moin said Pakistan was a lot safer than many Western countries and investors
should not be scared away by a series of bloody attacks on foreign targets
in the past year. "We are rather unfortunate in this respect," Moin said,
when asked how such attacks had hurt investment sentiment. "A small incident,
when it happens, people say: 'Oh, no investment. People have shied off
and no investment (is) coming to Pakistan'."
Moin said India was troubled by serious insurgencies and civil strife.
"So has investment stopped there? Has investment stopped in Israel? I don't
have the figures there. But they have suicide bombings there and they are
all the time in the limelight. Has everything stopped functioning there?"
The minister said he believed the level of crime in Pakistan, when it
came to incidents such as murders or carjackings or robberies, was not
as bad as in many Western countries. "Our aircraft are full. Our restaurants
are full. The roads, everything is functioning absolutely on schedule.
In no country in the world can you have 100 percent peace. I think they
may be more scared because of September 11 in America compared to in Pakistan."
Moin said he did not expect security problems during October elections.
He added he did not expect any terror attacks, unless they were plotted
by India. "In Pakistan nobody is targeting elections. Nobody has said so,"
he said.
Return To Top September 23, 2002
Raid on rebel camp kills 200, Colombian military
says
BOGOTA - (AP) -- The Colombian Air Force bombarded two rebel camps in
northwest Colombia, killing an estimated 200 insurgents, the air force
commander said Friday. The claim could not be immediately verified.
Velasco said government forces have not been sent to the mountainous
area in northwest Colombia, which is heavily mined. While there was no
body count to substantiate his statement, aerial bombing can inflict heavy
casualties if the rebels -- who aren't known to possess surface-to-air
missiles -- are caught in the open.
The death toll was calculated based on technology aboard the aircraft
-- including heat-seeking devices to detect corpses -- and on reports from
civilians in the area, an air force spokesman said on condition of anonymity.
OFFENSIVE CONTINUES
Operations with warplanes and combat helicopters against rebels of the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, were continuing near Ituango
village, 200 miles northwest of Bogotá, Velasco said. The rebels
were killed on Thursday and Friday, he said.
U.S. AID
The top U.S. military commander for the region, meanwhile, said the
United States was committed to helping Colombia fight terrorism as he handed
over a Hercules transport plane to the Colombian Air Force.
''This is another symbol of the cooperation between the United States
and Colombia,'' Army Gen. James T. Hill said during the ceremony at Bogotá's
military airport. ``This is another sign that we fight together against
the evil of terrorism.''
Return To Top September 23, 2002
September 22,
2002
Washington Strangely Overt About Covert War
Washington Strangely Overt About Covert War
Summary
In the past few days, the Pentagon has begun loudly signaling its intent
to step up covert operations around the globe, even specifically identifying
Yemen as a potential target. While a U.S. shift to high-intensity global
covert operations was expected, Washington's decision to broadcast the
plan seems truly bizarre. However, when one reads between the lines, there
may be some rational explanation for Washington's overt covert war.
Analysis
The Pentagon has launched a high-profile publicity campaign touting
a new phase in the war against al Qaeda, in which the Special Operations
Command (SOCOM) will play a leading role. According to a front-page story
in the Sept. 18 Washington Post, the Pentagon is planning to transfer control
over most of the war on al Qaeda to SOCOM. Until now, SOCOM forces have
answered to regional commanders in chief.
The same day, the New York Times trumpeted the "quiet" deployment of
hundreds of Special Operations forces to Djibouti in preparation for attacks
on militants in the region. The article singled out Yemen as a particularly
likely target.
Though STRATFOR earlier this year posited the likelihood of a global
covert anti-al Qaeda operation and a simultaneous attack on Iraq, dubbing
it the emerging "Bush Doctrine," we did not anticipate that the massive
covert war would be so … well, overt. All this recent publicity seems to
kind of miss the point of such operations.
Although a campaign of narrowly targeted global special operations ideally
would be carried out in secret, so as to minimize the opportunity for the
opposition to react, there are several possible tactical, strategic and
political reasons for publicizing this campaign.
Politically, critics continue to argue that Iraq has little or nothing
to do with the war on al Qaeda, and U.S. President George W. Bush seemed
to concede that point in the focus of his address to the United Nations
Sept. 12. Perhaps the recent series of leaks to the papers is in some degree
intended to reassure skeptics that the war on Iraq is not sidelining the
war on al Qaeda. This reassurance will become even more necessary once
the U.S. operations are underway, since they likely still will be secret
and the U.S. public will have only sporadic indications that Washington
is doing anything at all.
Operationally, shifting control of anti-al Qaeda operations from regional
commanders such as Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Gen. Tommy Franks will
allow for a more rational and efficient employment of forces. It will allow
CENTCOM to focus on waging war with Iraq and stabilizing the situation
in Afghanistan while saving Special Operations forces for special operations.
As laid out in the "Bush Doctrine," the anticipated U.S. war on Iraq
is likely to be shadowed by an intense global campaign of covert strikes
against al Qaeda targets. The overall plan would be to avoid the situation
in which an attack in one location merely scatters targeted militants to
more secure areas. Simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts -- provided
there are sufficient forces to maintain the pressure -- could leave al
Qaeda with nowhere to run.
Such a plan also would make sense given recent reports that al Qaeda
may be planning its own campaign to play off popular anti-U.S. sentiment
in the Islamic world in the event of a U.S. attack on Iraq. Washington
would want to pre-empt such attacks to avoid damage and distraction.
There are two other reasons Washington may be publicizing this campaign,
the first of which can be read between the lines in the Post and Times
stories. Strategically, Washington would prefer not to have to launch such
a campaign. It actually would prefer not to have to launch any campaign
at all. Ideally, countries would do as Washington asked and clean up their
own messes.
Unfortunately, this is not the reality for Washington, and part of the
reason for announcing that U.S. forces are about to launch a major series
of raids across the globe is to encourage countries hosting potential targets
to be more forthcoming with assistance. According to government sources
cited by the Post, the Pentagon announcement was coordinated with notices
to U.S. diplomats to "deliver some tough messages" to countries where militants
operate to cooperate in the war on al Qaeda. The additional caveat, "or
be prepared for the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment to visit
you in the night," was left unspoken.
The Times inadvertently hinted at another reason for all the publicity.
It noted that Pentagon and military officials had cautioned that covert
missions were waiting for sufficient intelligence to locate militants with
confidence. This has been the core U.S. problem since going to war with
al Qaeda. Washington simply lacks the intelligence necessary to carry out
surgical strikes against the organization. This dilemma is in large part
responsible for driving Washington to anti-state operations like the attack
on Afghanistan and the planned attack on Iraq.
Early reports of mop-up operations in Afghanistan's border regions indicated
that coalition forces were exposing themselves to fire intentionally in
hopes of forcing remaining elements of al Qaeda and the Taliban to shoot
and thereby reveal their locations. The recent publicity may be another
example of this tactic on a grander scale. By announcing the troop numbers
staging in Djibouti, and the precise targeted region in Yemen, Washington
may be trying to cause the militants to break cover and scatter or expose
themselves with increased communications.
All of this is well and good, but transferring command of much of the
war on al Qaeda to SOCOM raises one final set of questions. Will SOCOM
begin tasking civilian agencies, such as the CIA or FBI? Will it be able
to draw on additional conventional forces, perhaps to act as sweeping or
screening agents for its operations? And what about operations in the Northern
Command; will SOCOM run any operations in the United States until the Department
of Homeland Security is up and running? Will it then answer to Homeland
Security Director Tom Ridge, or vice versa?
Return To Top September 22, 2002
Al-Qaeda financier was ex-accountant of Saudi
royals
WASHINGTON: Preparations for the September 11 attacks were part-funded
via a network of fictitious Saudi and Spanish companies controlled by an
ex-accountant of the Saudi royal family, a lawyer for the attack victims
said Thursday.
A former accountant who worked for members of the Saudi royal family,
Mohammed Galeb Kalaje Zouaydi, arrested in Spain last April, is considered
to be the "big financier" behind terrorist a network al-Qaeda in Europe.
The revelations, due to be published Friday at a press conference in
New York, are based on investigation documents from Spanish authorities
following the dismantling of a suspected al-Qaeda cell in Spain.
A Spanish national of Syrian origin, Zouaydi was at the center of a
moneylaundering ring that funded al-Qaeda in Europe."We know, thanks to
the Spanish investigation, that Zouaydi lived in Saudi Arabia from 1996
to 2001 where he set up a series of private companies that received donations,"
said the lawyer.
The source of the funds is not yet known, said Brisard. Around one million
dollars was transferred to companies set up and controlled by Zouaydi in
Spain from where it was redistributed to al-Qaeda members in Europe, most
notably Hamburg, said the lawyer, a former consultant for the US Senate's
intelligence committee.
One of Zouaydi's employees in Spain, Ghassoub al Abrash Ghalyoun, visited
the World Trade Center in 1997 where he extensively videotaped the buildings.
"There are eight video cassettes filmed back then that were seized in Spain,"
Brisard said.
In addition, one of Zouaydi's associates had the number of Mohammed
Atta's apartment in Hamburg in the memory of his cell phone, the lawyer
said. During Zouaydi's five years in Saudi Arabia, he had professional
contact with some members of the Saudi royal family, according to the allegations.
Zouaydi, who was al-Qaeda's main man in Europe, "was an accountant for
the al- Faisal branch of the Saudi royal family, including Prince Mohammed
al-Faisal al-Saud and Prince Turki al-Faisal al-Saud," according to Brisard.
Prince Mohammed, a director of the Faisal Islamic Bank, and Prince Turki,
former Saudi secret service boss, appear, along with Saudi Arabia's Defense
Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud.
Return To Top September 22, 2002
Minister Itoo escapes second attempt on life;
Six persons killed in separate incidents in J&K
An unidentified terrorist, on September 20, launched an unsuccessful
assassination attempt on the life of Sakeena Itoo, ruling National Conference
(NC) candidate from the Noorabad Assembly constituency and Minister of
State for Tourism. Official sources in south Kashmir said the terrorist
lobbed a hand grenade at the paramilitary-guarded house of Sakeena Itoo
at Damhal Hanjipora in the Kulgam area. However, it failed to explode and
no one was killed or injured. This was the second attempt on her in the
last week. As reported earlier, unidentified terrorists, on September 15,
set-off an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion at Dhanow Kandimarg
village near the Pir Panjal range, south Kashmir, where she had gone for
campaigning. A security force (SF) personnel and a civilian were killed
in that incident. Terrorists had also carried out another attack on her
house during August 2002.
In another election-related incident, unidentified terrorists abducted
an NC leader, Maulvi Mohammad Hussain, from his residence at Brari Angan,
Achhabal. He was later killed at Renipora. At Khushipora, Qazigund, terrorists
hurled a grenade at a campaign vehicle of the Awami League. One person
sustained injuries in this incident.
On the Habdipora-Shopian road, terrorists targeted a vehicle of the
Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and set-off landmine blast. A CRPF
personnel was killed and three more sustained injuries in his blast. Separately,
at Kehlil, Tral, terrorists launched a rifle grenade attack, followed by
firing, on a Border Security Force (BSF) convoy. However, no loss of life
or injuries was reported in the incident.
Meanwhile, SF personnel conducted a search operation at Chhapargola,
Chotali area of Boniyar, Uri sector, and in the ensuing encounter three
foreign mercenaries were killed. Another foreign mercenary, reportedly
a member of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), was killed in a separate encounter
at Kandi, Kupwara district.
Return To Top September 22, 2002
Iraqi ambassador denies Saddam's exile
US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld suggested late Wednesday that a
decision by Saddam to leave the country would help avoid US military action
against Iraq.
But responding to "Western media reports" rather than Rumsfeld directly,
Iraq's ambassador to Russia, Abbas Khalaf, flatly rejected the suggestion
that Saddam was prepared to abdicate.
"This is another crude and stupid media invention that appeared in the
course of the propaganda war launched by the United States against the
Iraqi leadership," Khalaf told Interfax news agency.
Return To Top September 22, 2002
Rumsfeld to Israel: Don't retaliate to Iraqi
attack
Rumsfeld has urged Israel not to respond militarily to an Iraqi strike,
saying in rare public statement on the issue, it would be in Israel's "best
interests" not to get involved.
During a hearing on Wednesday in the House Armed Services Committee,
Representative Joel Hefley (R-Colorado) commented, "If we attack [Saddam],
he showed in the Persian Gulf War that he'll send missiles to Israel. If
he sends dirty bombs to Israel... I don't think we can restrain Israel
this time."
Rumsfeld responded by saying that there is no question that Iraq's neighbors
will be "vulnerable," but "there's also no doubt in my mind but that it
would be in Israel's overwhelming best interests not to get involved."
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and other senior Israeli officials, fearing
that the power of the threat of Israeli reprisal was eroded by the lack
of response to Iraqi Scud missiles in 1991, have pledged that Israel will
respond this time to any Iraqi attack.
Israel has won assurances from the Bush administration that it will
receive adequate advance warning of any US military offensive.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri, in a belligerent address to the General
Assembly yesterday, accused the US of "acting on behalf of Zionism" and
fabricating charges that his country is developing weapons of mass destruction.
Sabri, who spent most of his address reading out remarks from Saddam
Hussein, reiterated Iraq's decision this week to allow UN weapons inspectors
to return. However, he failed to mention other Bush administration demands,
including abiding by more than a dozen Security Council resolutions, halting
the repression of its own citizens and accounting for the whereabouts of
more than 600 prisoners of war. He said that Iraq "is clear of all nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons."
Bush, said Sabri, "pretended to care for the people of Iraq after he
and other presidents before him have killed by the use of weapons," and
he said the president made his accusations against Iraq based on "official
statements of lies, distortion, and falsehood."
"The US administration wants to destroy Iraq in order to control the
Middle East oil, and consequently control the politics as well as the oil
and economic policies of the whole world," said Sabri.
At various points in his speech, Sabri linked Iraq's position to the
plight of the Palestinians, and he confirmed US allegations that the regime
has sent funding to Palestinian terror groups and families of suicide bombers.
"The American president is correct in what he says, yet we feel that
the support we have extended has not been as high as we would have hoped,
because of the circumstances [sanctions] which have curtailed our means,"
said Sabri.
At the US mission to the UN, a spokesman criticized Sabri's speech as
"an indictment of the regime." "It's not the speech of a leader who wishes
to redeem the past and cooperate with the international community," said
the spokesman, noting that Iraqi disarmament and willingness to comply
with Security Council resolutions were not mentioned.
The US is currently pushing for a new Security Council resolution that
would specify exactly what Iraq must do to fulfill its obligations and
the consequences of failing to do so, he said.
Return To Top September 22, 2002
September 21,
2002
Return To Top September 17, 2002 Return To Top September 17, 2002 Return To Top September 17, 2002 Return To Top September 16, 2002 Return To Top September 16, 2002 Return To Top September 16, 2002 Return To Top September 16, 2002 Return To Top September 16, 2002 Bush for progress on Kashmir issue
Bush for progress on Kashmir issue UNITED NATIONS, Sep 14 (PNS): The US had in principle approved the release
of the charges of services provided by Pakistan and out of $700 million
an amount of $317 million would soon be made available to Pakistan, said
Pakistan's Ambassador to US, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi while briefing journalists.
Musharraf raised the issue of student visa during the meeting. Bush
said after September 11 US was reviewing its security system and "in the
next few weeks they will be able to resolve the problem, particularly the
cases of students who risk missing their classes will be considered".
He said President Musharraf informed President Bush about the initiatives
taken by Pakistan to ease tension in the region and to initiate a dialogue.
"But the Indian intransigence is the main hurdle," Musharraf told Bush.
President Bush expressed US willingness to continue to play a role for
the reduction of tension between India and Pakistan. President Musharraf
reiterated Pakistan's commitment to remain a frontline ally of the coalition
in the war against terrorism.
US officials acknowledge privately that Musharraf's strong support for
the US-led "war on terrorism", especially the campaign against the Taliban
and Osama bin Laden's al- Qaeda network, have Washington over a barrel.
Meanwhile, a top US official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity
about the late Thursday meetings, quoted Bush as telling Musharraf that
"adherence to democracy is key". At the "very top of the meeting", Bush
"stressed how important is that the Pakistanis follow through on their
commitments to return to full democracy", he said. Musharraf "agreed with
us entirely, and said that he is trying to establish the roots of a successful
democracy", the official added.
Neither could the official cite any concrete progress towards resolving
tensions over Kashmir, saying only that Bush's half-hour meetings had reminded
both sides that Washington believes "it is important that progress is achieved".
Bush also stressed that Washington hoped to defuse tensions over the
disputed Kashmir region. In his meeting with Vajpayee, Bush offered his
condolences for the recent slaying of Kashmir law minister, calling it
"an example of the sort of terrorism that no civilised state can support",
the official said.
Both leaders celebrated improving bilateral relations and vowed to make
even more progress, noting in particular "the positive developments in
the area of counter- terrorism and defence cooperation", the official said.
The two leaders "emphasised the deepening of the high-level economic
dialogue, and the strengthening of the new strategic framework of relations,
and agreed to explore the possibility of expanding cooperation in space,
in diverse forms of energy, high technology, commerce, and in science,"
the official said.
"We don't have all the details fleshed out yet, but we plan to be talking
to the Indians about it. And the Indians, I think, were very happy to hear
that we have not forgotten about these issues," the official added.
Return To Top September 15, 2002 Iraq rejects new US-UK pressure Britain and the United States were moving closer to a confrontation
with Iraq last night after Baghdad rejected President George Bush's demand
for the unconditional return of UN weapons inspectors.
Dismissing Mr Bush's speech to the UN on Thursday as "lies and falsifications",
Tariq Aziz said: "The return of inspectors without conditions will not
solve the problem because we have had a bad experience with them. Is it
clever to repeat an experience that failed and did not prevent aggression?"
His remarks were immediately rejected by the White House spokesman,
Ari Fleischer, who declared: "Obviously they have something to hide." Mr
Bush set the tone of the US view of Iraq earlier when he said he was "highly
doubtful" Baghdad would comply with calls to readmit weapons inspectors.
The war of words between Washington and Baghdad will stiffen the determination
of Mr Bush to draw up a strongly worded UN security council resolution
over the readmission of inspectors. Britain and the US, who yesterday embarked
on a frantic round of diplomacy at the UN in New York, want the resolution
to make clear that Baghdad will face a military assault if it fails to
give the inspectors unlimited access. Mr Bush also wants to set a strict
deadline "of days and weeks" for Iraq to comply with calls for the inspectors
to be readmitted.
Mr Straw will outline this tough approach today when he tells UN general
assembly: "We have to be clear to Iraq and to ourselves about the consequences
which will flow from a failure by Iraq to meet its obligations."
Britain is being careful not to talk publicly of including the threat
of military force in the resolution, because ministers hope to win round
sceptical members of the security council and place the Iraqis under greater
pressure to readmit weapons inspectors.
Iraq's rejection of America's demands appeared to complicate the negotiations
at the UN last night. But Baghdad's response was carefully phrased to keep
the door open - however slightly - on readmitting weapons inspectors.
But British officials made it clear that Mr Straw, who had lunch yesterday
with his counterparts from the security council's five permanent members,
had an "open mind" about what should be in the resolution.
His approach was echoed by Colin Powell, the US secretary of state,
who diplomatically referred to the drawing up of "resolution or resolutions"
as he prepared to meet the 14 other members of the security council. This
was a nod to France, one of the "big five" with the power to veto a resolution,
which proposed two resolutions. Under the French plan, the first resolution
would give Iraq three weeks to readmit the weapons inspectors. This would
be followed by a second approving the use of military force if Iraq refuses.
Britain and America hope that their conciliatory approach will ease
the atmosphere at the UN as diplomats prepare to draw up the new resolution.
The "framework" of the resolution will be set by foreign ministers over
the weekend. Senior diplomats will then start drawing up a resolution which
Britain hopes to finalise next week or the week after.
Behind their conciliatory public language, however, Britain and the
US are adamant that the threat of military action must be included in the
resolution.
The British government also has an eye on a growing backbench revolt.
Tony Blair will tomorrow be given a warning of the threat he faces when
the former frontbenchers, Chris Smith and Gerald Kaufman, warn of the dangers
of military action without an international consensus.
Return To Top September 15, 2002 Bush appeals to U.S. public for support on
Iraq WASHINGTON - Saying the United States must confront Saddam
Bush said his call for action was gaining ground one day after Iraq
flatly rejected U.S. demands for a swift and unconditional return of U.N.
arms inspectors. The U.N. inspectors, responsible for accounting for Iraq's
nuclear, chemical, biological and ballistic weapon programs, were pulled
out of Iraq in 1998.
Bush counted Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who he will meet
with on Saturday at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland, and
the leaders of Britain, Spain and Poland among those who "have reached
the same conclusion I have -- that Saddam Hussein has made the case against
himself."
For his radio address, Bush borrowed heavily from Thursday's speech
to the U.N. General Assembly in which he bluntly warned that "action will
be unavoidable" against Iraq unless the world body took a hard line forcing
Baghdad to disarm.
Bush accused Saddam of maintaining stockpiles of chemical and biological
agents that could be used as weapons against its neighbors, U.S. allies
and American forces in the Gulf region.
Bush accused Saddam of trying to develop nuclear weapons, saying he
already had the infrastructure and has illicitly sought to purchase equipment
needed to enrich uranium for a bomb. Should he acquire fissile material,
Bush said Saddam would be able to build a nuclear weapon within a year.
'A RECKLESS GAMBLE'
"By supporting terrorist groups, repressing its own people and pursuing
weapons of mass destruction in defiance of a decade of U.N. resolutions,
Saddam Hussein's regime has proven itself a grave and gathering danger.
To suggest otherwise is to hope against the evidence. To assume this regime's
good faith is to bet the lives of millions and the peace of the world in
a reckless gamble. And this is a risk we must not take," Bush said.
Bush warned Congress against backing down, saying it "must make it unmistakably
clear that when it comes to confronting the growing danger posed by Iraq's
efforts to develop or acquire weapons of mass destruction, the status quo
is totally unacceptable."
Despite Bush's call for quick action, some Senate Democrats want to
delay a vote on the use of force against Iraq until after the Nov. 5 congressional
elections.
They say the Bush administration has yet to explain how a conflict in
Iraq would affect the war on terrorism, who would replace Saddam if he
were ousted, and whether the international community would back U.S. action.
The White House is pressing Security Council members to agree quickly
on a resolution demanding that Iraq comply with U.N. disarmament demands,
although Bush said on Friday he was "highly doubtful" Saddam would comply.
"It refuses to account for missing Gulf War personnel, or to end illicit
trade outside the U.N.'s oil-for-food program. And although the regime
agreed in 1991 to destroy and stop developing all weapons of mass destruction
and long-range missiles, it has broken every aspect of this fundamental
pledge," he added.
Bush devoted his entire weekly radio address to Iraq for the first time.
Return To Top September 15, 2002 Vajpayee trashes Pak, taunts Musharraf
NEW YORK: Rarely quick to anger, India's grandfatherly Prime Minister
Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Friday lashed out at Pakistan's military regime,
accusing it of adding nuclear blackmail to its "quiver of state-sponsored
terrorism."
The Vajpayee fusillade, delivered in Hindi before the UN General Assembly,
also taunted Pakistan's military dictator Pervez Musharraf for questioning
India's secular and democratic principles and ridiculed his equating terrorism
with freedom struggles, saying Pakistan was promoting a bizarre, blood-
soaked version of self-determination.
The Vajpayee fusillade, delivered before the UN General Assembly, was
evidently in response to Musharraf's hard-hitting speech on Thursday in
which he piled on BJP-led India charges of military hegemony fuelled by
religious extremism. Vajpayee's strong response startled the international
community and dismayed US officials, and the general impression now is
that ties between India and Pakistan have now reached a nadir.
The Indian Prime Minister reserved sulfurous personal retort for General
Musharraf for his description of the upcoming election in Jammu and Kashmir
as a farce. "Those who had to adjust voting and counting procedures to
win a referendum are ill-placed to lecture others in freedom and democracy,"
Vajpayee said.
Vajpayee directly accused Pakistan and its intelligence agency ISI of
conducting terrorism in India under nuclear cover and said India is "determined
to end it with all the means at our command." In doing so, he also questioned
US reading of the situation in the sub-continent and its indulgence of
Pakistan.
Some of the Indian Prime Minister's questions and barbs were also directed
at the international community, including the United Nations Secretary
General Kofi Annan, who in his address on Saturday suggested that the root
causes of the problem in Kashmir needed to be looked into.
"Those who speak of underlying or root causes of terrorism offer alibis
to the terrorists and absolve them of responsibilities for their heinous
actions such as the September 11 attacks on the United States or the December
13 attack on our Parliament," Vajpayee said.
Vajpayee also responded to Musharraf's remarks on the events in Gujarat
and the rise of Hindu extremism in India. He maintained that India had
the second largest Muslim population in the world, "more than in Pakistan,"
and non-discrimination and equal respect of all faiths, "is the signature
tune of India's civilisation and culture."
The Indian response came despite a surprising confession from General
Musharraf at a press conference on Thursday that his hard-hitting UN speech
was the "language of desperation."
The desperation, Musharraf said, was a result of India's "failure to
reciprocate and respond" to the several initiatives his government had
taken to resume dialogue.
While Musharraf may have been emboldened by Kofi Annan's remark about
"root causes" to once again advance his theory of freedom struggle in Kashmir,
the Indian side took heart in US President George Bush's assurance that
Washington did not equate terrorism with freedom struggles.
Return To Top September 15, 2002 Revolutionary thinking
The nature of warfare - now and in the future - changed forever on 11
September 2001. For a decade, commentators, analysts and military observers
have been talking about a new defence 'paradigm' and the 'revolution in
military affairs', but only then, when airliners were used as weapons of
mass destruction, did the revolution and the paradigm take flight and a
new 'warform' mobilise.
Gen John Jumper, USAF Chief of Staff, has called it "a whole new realm
of thinking" and illustrates this new thinking with several examples from
the Afghan campaign: how B-52s, designed as strategic Cold War bombers,
were operating as close air support aircraft; and how special operations
forces (SOF) on horseback were punching in their target co-ordinates on
laptops.
A perfect illustration again comes from Afghanistan, where, after a
rapid modification programme, USAF AC-130 gunships were able to receive
live 'streaming' video from an RQ-1A Predator UAV intended to direct the
gunship's fire onto terrorist ground targets. The experiment worked so
well that the idea is being taken further. This month, according to Gen
Jumper, SOF will experiment with a laptop software programme called 'Rover'
that will allow troops on the ground to draw directly onto photographic
imagery of the target area. They will be able to 'paint' circles around
the 'bad guys' and 'good guys' then shoot the information directly to an
AC-130, avoiding any confusion about who is where.
However, innovation - particularly when applied too rapidly - can also
bring its own hazards. Gen Jumper relays an account of a SOF operator in
Afghanistan who typed in GPS target co- ordinates into his laptop but had
to change the battery before relaying the information. It cost him his
life. Because of a software glitch, with the new battery installed the
laptop gave the SOF operator's own position as the target to a circling
US fighter, with inevitable and tragic consequences.
It is important, Gen Jumper says, that these kinds of fallibilities
are removed from the 'system'. Data, he says, is best fed directly into
a weapon and then merely confirmed by a human in the loop.
The degree to which automation and robotics should be applied to the
battlefield is a debate that is only just beginning. It has been pulled
sharply into focus by some appalling incidents of 'collateral damage' from
recent wars: the destruction of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during
the 1999 Kosovo campaign and the deaths in July of Afghans at a wedding
celebration after a mistaken attack by an AC-130. In both cases, data inputs
by people were the common denominator.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
Russia runs out of patience with Georgia MOSCOW - Tensions between Russia and Georgia reached boiling point
on Wednesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the military to
prepare for strikes into Georgian territory.
Putin ordered military preparations after holding Georgia responsible
for giving shelter to Chechen rebels. In a statement on September 11, Putin
cited the United Nations Security Council resolution adopted after the
terrorist attacks of September 11 last year, requiring states to help prevent
terrorist acts, and to deny save haven to terrorists and their sponsors.
Putin also cited Article 51 of the United Nations charter that allowed
use of force against other states for self-defense. Putin ordered his top
military officers to prepare to strike bases run by Chechen rebels in the
Pankisi Gorge in Georgian territory. In televised remarks Putin said Russia
may now resort to the "inalienable right of self-defense". He said, however,
that Russia does not aim to undermine the territorial integrity of Georgia.
Putin's speech was followed by an official note sent from Moscow to
the UN Security Council Thursday alleging that Georgia is violating the
antiterrorism resolution adopted by the UN.
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze called Putin's statement "hasty"
and "one-sided" and said it "does not reflect the situation". But he admitted
the situation had become serious now that the Russian president had issued
such threats. Shevardnadze said there were no more than "a few dozen" militants
in Pankisi Gorge. Thousands of Chechen refugees live in the area.
Russian officials have been dismissive of Georgian efforts. The foreign
ministry reiterated its demand on September 11 that Georgia extradite 13
Chechen rebels detained on the border between the two countries last month.
Kremlin officials have repeatedly sought permission to carry out raids
on rebel hide-outs but Georgia has refused permission.
Russian demands are now becoming blunt. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov
said recently that Georgia has become a "nest" of terrorism. Putin's statement
of September 11 is being seen as more than a war of words. The same day
the Speaker of the Federation Council Sergei Mironov backed Putin's pledge
to attack Chechen rebels in Pankisi. The Federation Council authorizes
use of Russian troops outside its borders.
Earlier this year the US offered to send its troops to give the Georgian
military antiterrorist training against alleged al Qaeda linked fighters
in Pankisi. Now Russia insists that the Pankisi Gorge has become a safe
haven for al Qaeda elements linked to the September 11 attacks.
Russia is now presenting the same kind of logic that the US is using
in support of an attack on Iraq. Ivanov told Russian lawmakers on September
11 that Georgia's support to terrorists had been proved far more conclusively
than any support to terrorism by Iraq.
Russia has particularly sought extradition of Chechen leader Ruslan
Guelayev. Georgian officials have responded with a demand for extradition
of Igor Georgadze, former security chief of Georgia.
Officials in Moscow deny that Georgadze is hiding in Russia. But Georgadze
was interviewed by several Russian media groups recently, and claimed that
Shevardnadze's regime could have links with al Qaeda.
Relations between Russia and Georgia have become strained over several
issues. Russia sees Georgia as taking a strong pro-West and anti-Russia
stance. On the other hand Georgia opposes what it sees as Russian support
for separatist groups in Abkhazia region within Georgia. Abkhazia has had
de facto independence since Georgian forces lost to separatist forces in
1993.
Russia does not recognize Abkhazia as a separate state, and sees it
as a part of Georgia. But the Kremlin says it keeps close ties with the
Abkhazian leadership to maintain mediation between them and Georgia. Russian
peacekeepers have been present in Abkhazia since 1994, and Georgia accuses
them of supporting the separatists.
In the absence of any Georgian action against the Chechen rebels, Russia
is unlikely to pull its troops out of Abkhazia. Russian officials are instead
holding up Iraq as a model for new raids into Georgia.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
Netanyahu: US must guarantee Israel's safety
from Iraqi attack The US has a responsibility to ensure Israelis are protected against
weapons of mass destruction before it decides to launch a military offensive
to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, former prime minister Binyamin
Netanyahu said Thursday.
Netanyahu, who is expected to challenge Sharon for control of the Likud,
said the "overwhelming majority" of Israelis support a preemptive strike
against Saddam even though they will be the target of any Iraqi retaliation.
In an indictment of opponents to a US-led preemptive attack on Iraq,
he said, "We support this preemptive action even though we stand on the
front line, while others criticize it as they sit comfortably on the sidelines."
Netanyahu echoed many of the indictments of Saddam aired by President
George W. Bush at the UN and stressed above all the dangers posed by a
nuclear-armed Saddam.
"A nuclear-armed Saddam will place the security of our entire world
at risk. Make no mistake about it. Once Saddam has nuclear weapons, the
terror network will have nuclear weapons. And once the terror network has
nuclear weapons, it is only a matter of time before those weapons will
be used," he said.
Netanyahu added that "even free and unfettered inspections will not
uncover" Saddam's "portable manufacturing sites of mass death."
He said that while Iran is "outpacing Iraq" in its development of weapons
of mass destruction, regime change in Iran may be possible without outside
interference, especially once Saddam is removed from power.
He also warned, as he has repeatedly in the past, that Saddam could
use "terror proxies" to spread weapons of mass destruction in the US.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
Al-Joumhoreyah: Hussein threatens to destroy
Qatar if Iraq is attacked from it
The Egyptian daily al-Joumhoreyah said in Wednesday that the Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein threatened to destroy Qatar if Doha permits the US to use
its military bases in attacking Iraq.
The paper quoted Iraqi sources as saying that the Iraqi president launched
the threats during his meeting in Baghdad recently with the Qatari foreign
minister Hamad Bin Jasem Bin Jaber al-Thani.
The sources described the meeting as the most difficult position the
Qatari foreign minister had to face.
It continued that Sheikh Hamad then headed to Iraq carrying a message
from the USA on the need of opening Iraq's doors before the UN inspectors,
otherwise "hell" is coming.
Al- Joumhoreyah added that Saddam continued listening to the Qatari
minister until he said that the US placed at the Aided military base weapons
he has never seen before that will be used in the attack, then the Iraqi
president said to the Qatari minister that his country will not accept
such a threat.
Saddam was quoted saying to Sheikh Hamad "if Qatar accepted to be a
hireling, and to stand with the enemy of the Arab nation, Iraq will not
accept that, nor attacking any other Arab country."
The Iraqi president also threatened to destroy Qatar if it permits the
US to use al-Aided base in launching attacks against Iraq. The sources
said that the Qatari minister left the meeting very upset and left Baghdad
immediately.
Return To Top September 14, 2002 Revolutionary thinking
The nature of warfare - now and in the future - changed forever on 11
September 2001. For a decade, commentators, analysts and military observers
have been talking about a new defence 'paradigm' and the 'revolution in
military affairs', but only then, when airliners were used as weapons of
mass destruction, did the revolution and the paradigm take flight and a
new 'warform' mobilise.
Gen John Jumper, USAF Chief of Staff, has called it "a whole new realm
of thinking" and illustrates this new thinking with several examples from
the Afghan campaign: how B-52s, designed as strategic Cold War bombers,
were operating as close air support aircraft; and how special operations
forces (SOF) on horseback were punching in their target co-ordinates on
laptops.
A perfect illustration again comes from Afghanistan, where, after a
rapid modification programme, USAF AC-130 gunships were able to receive
live 'streaming' video from an RQ-1A Predator UAV intended to direct the
gunship's fire onto terrorist ground targets. The experiment worked so
well that the idea is being taken further. This month, according to Gen
Jumper, SOF will experiment with a laptop software programme called 'Rover'
that will allow troops on the ground to draw directly onto photographic
imagery of the target area. They will be able to 'paint' circles around
the 'bad guys' and 'good guys' then shoot the information directly to an
AC-130, avoiding any confusion about who is where.
However, innovation - particularly when applied too rapidly - can also
bring its own hazards. Gen Jumper relays an account of a SOF operator in
Afghanistan who typed in GPS target co- ordinates into his laptop but had
to change the battery before relaying the information. It cost him his
life. Because of a software glitch, with the new battery installed the
laptop gave the SOF operator's own position as the target to a circling
US fighter, with inevitable and tragic consequences.
It is important, Gen Jumper says, that these kinds of fallibilities
are removed from the 'system'. Data, he says, is best fed directly into
a weapon and then merely confirmed by a human in the loop.
The degree to which automation and robotics should be applied to the
battlefield is a debate that is only just beginning. It has been pulled
sharply into focus by some appalling incidents of 'collateral damage' from
recent wars: the destruction of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during
the 1999 Kosovo campaign and the deaths in July of Afghans at a wedding
celebration after a mistaken attack by an AC-130. In both cases, data inputs
by people were the common denominator.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
Russia runs out of patience with Georgia MOSCOW - Tensions between Russia and Georgia reached boiling point
on Wednesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the military to
prepare for strikes into Georgian territory.
Putin ordered military preparations after holding Georgia responsible
for giving shelter to Chechen rebels. In a statement on September 11, Putin
cited the United Nations Security Council resolution adopted after the
terrorist attacks of September 11 last year, requiring states to help prevent
terrorist acts, and to deny save haven to terrorists and their sponsors.
Putin also cited Article 51 of the United Nations charter that allowed
use of force against other states for self-defense. Putin ordered his top
military officers to prepare to strike bases run by Chechen rebels in the
Pankisi Gorge in Georgian territory. In televised remarks Putin said Russia
may now resort to the "inalienable right of self-defense". He said, however,
that Russia does not aim to undermine the territorial integrity of Georgia.
Putin's speech was followed by an official note sent from Moscow to
the UN Security Council Thursday alleging that Georgia is violating the
antiterrorism resolution adopted by the UN.
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze called Putin's statement "hasty"
and "one-sided" and said it "does not reflect the situation". But he admitted
the situation had become serious now that the Russian president had issued
such threats. Shevardnadze said there were no more than "a few dozen" militants
in Pankisi Gorge. Thousands of Chechen refugees live in the area.
Russian officials have been dismissive of Georgian efforts. The foreign
ministry reiterated its demand on September 11 that Georgia extradite 13
Chechen rebels detained on the border between the two countries last month.
Kremlin officials have repeatedly sought permission to carry out raids
on rebel hide-outs but Georgia has refused permission.
Russian demands are now becoming blunt. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov
said recently that Georgia has become a "nest" of terrorism. Putin's statement
of September 11 is being seen as more than a war of words. The same day
the Speaker of the Federation Council Sergei Mironov backed Putin's pledge
to attack Chechen rebels in Pankisi. The Federation Council authorizes
use of Russian troops outside its borders.
Earlier this year the US offered to send its troops to give the Georgian
military antiterrorist training against alleged al Qaeda linked fighters
in Pankisi. Now Russia insists that the Pankisi Gorge has become a safe
haven for al Qaeda elements linked to the September 11 attacks.
Russia is now presenting the same kind of logic that the US is using
in support of an attack on Iraq. Ivanov told Russian lawmakers on September
11 that Georgia's support to terrorists had been proved far more conclusively
than any support to terrorism by Iraq.
Russia has particularly sought extradition of Chechen leader Ruslan
Guelayev. Georgian officials have responded with a demand for extradition
of Igor Georgadze, former security chief of Georgia.
Officials in Moscow deny that Georgadze is hiding in Russia. But Georgadze
was interviewed by several Russian media groups recently, and claimed that
Shevardnadze's regime could have links with al Qaeda.
Relations between Russia and Georgia have become strained over several
issues. Russia sees Georgia as taking a strong pro-West and anti-Russia
stance. On the other hand Georgia opposes what it sees as Russian support
for separatist groups in Abkhazia region within Georgia. Abkhazia has had
de facto independence since Georgian forces lost to separatist forces in
1993.
Russia does not recognize Abkhazia as a separate state, and sees it
as a part of Georgia. But the Kremlin says it keeps close ties with the
Abkhazian leadership to maintain mediation between them and Georgia. Russian
peacekeepers have been present in Abkhazia since 1994, and Georgia accuses
them of supporting the separatists.
In the absence of any Georgian action against the Chechen rebels, Russia
is unlikely to pull its troops out of Abkhazia. Russian officials are instead
holding up Iraq as a model for new raids into Georgia.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
Netanyahu: US must guarantee Israel's safety
from Iraqi attack The US has a responsibility to ensure Israelis are protected against
weapons of mass destruction before it decides to launch a military offensive
to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, former prime minister Binyamin
Netanyahu said Thursday.
Netanyahu, who is expected to challenge Sharon for control of the Likud,
said the "overwhelming majority" of Israelis support a preemptive strike
against Saddam even though they will be the target of any Iraqi retaliation.
In an indictment of opponents to a US-led preemptive attack on Iraq,
he said, "We support this preemptive action even though we stand on the
front line, while others criticize it as they sit comfortably on the sidelines."
Netanyahu echoed many of the indictments of Saddam aired by President
George W. Bush at the UN and stressed above all the dangers posed by a
nuclear-armed Saddam.
"A nuclear-armed Saddam will place the security of our entire world
at risk. Make no mistake about it. Once Saddam has nuclear weapons, the
terror network will have nuclear weapons. And once the terror network has
nuclear weapons, it is only a matter of time before those weapons will
be used," he said.
Netanyahu added that "even free and unfettered inspections will not
uncover" Saddam's "portable manufacturing sites of mass death."
He said that while Iran is "outpacing Iraq" in its development of weapons
of mass destruction, regime change in Iran may be possible without outside
interference, especially once Saddam is removed from power.
He also warned, as he has repeatedly in the past, that Saddam could
use "terror proxies" to spread weapons of mass destruction in the US.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
Al-Joumhoreyah: Hussein threatens to destroy
Qatar if Iraq is attacked from it
The Egyptian daily al-Joumhoreyah said in Wednesday that the Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein threatened to destroy Qatar if Doha permits the US to use
its military bases in attacking Iraq.
The paper quoted Iraqi sources as saying that the Iraqi president launched
the threats during his meeting in Baghdad recently with the Qatari foreign
minister Hamad Bin Jasem Bin Jaber al-Thani.
The sources described the meeting as the most difficult position the
Qatari foreign minister had to face.
It continued that Sheikh Hamad then headed to Iraq carrying a message
from the USA on the need of opening Iraq's doors before the UN inspectors,
otherwise "hell" is coming.
Al- Joumhoreyah added that Saddam continued listening to the Qatari
minister until he said that the US placed at the Aided military base weapons
he has never seen before that will be used in the attack, then the Iraqi
president said to the Qatari minister that his country will not accept
such a threat.
Saddam was quoted saying to Sheikh Hamad "if Qatar accepted to be a
hireling, and to stand with the enemy of the Arab nation, Iraq will not
accept that, nor attacking any other Arab country."
The Iraqi president also threatened to destroy Qatar if it permits the
US to use al-Aided base in launching attacks against Iraq. The sources
said that the Qatari minister left the meeting very upset and left Baghdad
immediately.
Return To Top September 14, 2002
September 13, 2002 Today's update edited by RK. Peru arrests suspects in bombing near U.S. Embassy
Peru arrests suspects in bombing near U.S.
Embassy
LIMA, Peru (AP) - Police have arrested the leader and two members of
an urban cell of the Shining Path rebel group behind a car bombing that
killed 10 Peruvians near the U.S. Embassy, officials said Thursday.
The explosion, the worst terrorist attack in Peru in five years, came
three days before President Bush visited this Andean nation in March.
"We have decapitated this cell of the Shining Path, but we must remain
vigilant," Interior Minister Gino Costa said.
Gen. Marco Miyashiro, the head of Peru's counterterrorism police, identified
Wilbert Elki Meza Majino, 31, as the leader of the Lima-based cell and
Giovanna Anaya, 23, and Pilar Sulema, 27, as key lieutenants. The three
were arrested Aug. 22, he said.
Three other people accused of carrying out the car bombing were arrested
in May. The attack raised concerns that the largely defeated Shining Path
was plotting a comeback.
The Shining Path launched its campaign to overthrow the government and
install a communist state in 1980. The group frequently used car bombings,
sabotage and assassinations, although violence dropped off significantly
following the arrest of founder Abimael Guzman in 1992.
Costa said that small bands of the guerrillas continue to operate in
isolated river valleys in the Amazon jungle region, where they have become
entwined with drug traffickers.
Return To Top September 08, 2002
Experts Say Peru Rebels Will Revamp LIMA, Peru (AP) - Anti-terrorism experts cautioned Friday that pockets
of Shining Path rebels will be tough to eradicate despite the recent arrest
of a leader of an urban cell that was responsible for a deadly car bombing.
Interior Minister Gino Costa told reporters at a Thursday news conference
that the government is still seeking other guerrillas suspected in the
car bombing.
The car bombing was the worst Shining Path attack in Peru in five years
and highlighted concerns that the group was resurrecting itself.
The Shining Path launched its campaign to overthrow the government and
install a communist state in 1980. Some 30,000 noncombatants, rebels, police
agents and soldiers have been killed in fighting in the past two decades.
The violence dropped off significantly following Guzman's arrest in
1992. An average 3,500 people died each year in political violence in the
late 1980s and early 1990s, but the U.S. State Department attributed only
31 killings to the Shining Path last year.
The group's ranks have also shrunk dramatically. Government officials
and experts estimate that no more than 500 armed combatants are operating
today, down from an estimated 10,000 guerrillas in the early 1990s.
In a sign it is still regarded as dangerous, the group remains on the
U.S. and European Union lists of global terrorist organizations.
Though police said the Lima cell ran an internet cafe to help fund its
operations, factions operating in the jungle regions have become involved
with cocaine traffickers to finance their struggle.
``As long as the Shining Path is involved in drug trafficking, there
will never be a final blow,'' Gonzalez said.
Return To Top September 08, 2002
Iraq war not imminent, says NATO general The chairman of NATO's military committee, General Harald Kujat, has
said he does not believe that war against Iraq is imminent.
"I do not personally have the impression that such a war is imminent",
Kujat said, in remarks to be published on Sunday by the weekly Welt am
Sonntag.
In remarks largely reflecting those of NATO Secretary-General George
Robertson earlier in the week, Kujat described talk of coming air raids
on Iraq as "speculation" and said the issue of an attack on Baghdad had
not even been raised at NATO's Permanent Council in Brussels.
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany has repeatedly stated he did
not want to receive a last-minute telephone call just before the commencement
of hostilities.
The German leader has drawn fire from Washington for standing opposed
to any intervention in Iraq and for saying that if it did happen, it would
be without German help.
On Friday night, however, German Defence Minister Peter Struck hinted
at a possible change in Berlin's view, saying a new situation would be
created if proof was produced implicating Baghdad in terrorism.
Return To Top September 08, 2002
OPEC, consumers say oil 'not a weapon'
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AP) -- OPEC and an organization of oil- consuming
nations steered clear of historic antagonisms and pledged cooperation to
keep oil prices stable amid worries about tensions with Iraq.
Agreeing that "oil is not a weapon," OPEC Secretary-General Alvaro Silva
Calderon and Robert Priddle, executive director of the International Energy
Agency, called for world prices that satisfy producers without choking
off consumer demand.
"Fair and equitable prices will guarantee a prosperous future for all
concerned -- producers, companies, investors and consumers alike," Silva
told the closing session Thursday of the 17th World Petroleum Congress.
"But for the desired conditions to be put in place, we have to ... expand
our dialogue with all the parties."
The men vowed to work together to keep oil markets steady at a time
of volatility over the Bush administration's public relations offensive
against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
OPEC and the IEA were at odds in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when
the Arab oil producers cut supplies to the West to punish the United States
and other nations for their support of Israel.
Silva said crude oil prices are still within the band of $22 to $28
per barrel set by the OPEC cartel, and that the average for the year should
be about $23.
On the question of Iraq, Silva insisted his organization would do what
it could to stabilize prices in volatile times.
"Concrete cooperation and coordination of policies will hopefully result
in all interested parties pulling together," he said. But he warned that
"there will always be unforeseen events affecting the market."
Twin Towers steel set for US warship
Update: Kashmir, Indian Missile, North Korea Nuclear, US Plans for Korean Contingency December 29
Indian Defense and Security News December 28
Jamiat says it shot down MiG, Indian Air Force rejects claim December 27
Russia to Be Outflanked through Great Silk Way? December 27
Outrage as India trains dolphins to mine ships December 27
Turkish Troops Set to Advance on N. Iraqi oil cities - Ahead of US Attack December 26
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Indian Defense and Security News December 28
Jamiat says it shot down MiG, Indian Air Force rejects claim December 27
Russia to Be Outflanked through Great Silk Way? December 27
Outrage as India trains dolphins to mine ships December 27
Turkish Troops Set to Advance on N. Iraqi oil cities - Ahead of US Attack
Editorial from the Arab News: Afghan warlords
An alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23 December 24
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
(OPCON of all assigned forces)
(2) Army Corps
(3) Mech Infantry Division
(1) Air Assault Division
(2) Armored Division
(1) Brigade Army Prepositioned Afloat
(APA)/ Army War Reserve-3 (AWR-3)
(1) Brigade AWR-5 (Okinawa and Camp Zama, Japan)
(1) Battalion Task Force (Guam)
(2) Carrier Battle Group (CVBG)
(2) Surface Groups
(1) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG)
(1) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG)
(2) Patrol SQDN P3B/C
(6) Composite Air Wing Headquarters
(3) SQDNs A-10S
(4) SQDN F-16s (in theater)
(1) SQDN F-15s (in theater)
(3) SQDN F-15s
(6) SQDN F-16s
(3) SQDN C-130s
(4) SQDN KC-10s
(2) SQDN EC-130E ABCCC
(2) SQDN EC-130 Compass Call
(2) E-8 JSTARS
Commander, II MEF
(2) Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) Forward Headquarters
(1) MEU (SOC) (Embarked)(in theater)
(1) MEU (SOC) (Embarked)
(2) Ranger Battalion
(18) Operational Detachment Alpha
(3) Operational Detachment Bravo
(1) Operational Detachment Charlie
(2) Seal Platoon
(2) SQDN MH-53J
(2) SQDN MC-130H
(2) SQDN MH-60J
(2) Psychological Operations Battalion
(3) Civil Affairs Battalion
(4) AC-130U Spectre Gunships
(3) EC-130E Commando Solo
Jamiat says it shot down MiG, Indian Air Force rejects claim December 27
Russia to Be Outflanked through Great Silk Way? December 27
Outrage as India trains dolphins to mine ships December 27
Turkish Troops Set to Advance on N. Iraqi oil cities - Ahead of US Attack
Editorial from the Arab News: Afghan warlords
An alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23 December 24
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Russia to Be Outflanked through Great Silk Way?
Outrage as India trains dolphins to mine ships
Turkish Troops Set to Advance on N. Iraqi oil cities - Ahead of US Attack December 26
Editorial from the Arab News: Afghan warlords December 26
World News Summary December 25
An alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23 December 24
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Editorial from the Arab News: Afghan warlords
World News Summary December 25
Pakistan, Iran to hold wargames December 24
An alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23 December 24
A divided Middle East will be picked off one-at-a-time December 24
Pakistani May Have Offered Iraq Nuke Aid December 22
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Pakistan, Iran to hold wargames December 24
An alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23 December 24
A divided Middle East will be picked off one-at-a-time December 24
Pakistani May Have Offered Iraq Nuke Aid December 22
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
n alternate explanation of US Policy on Iraq: Reply to AFI analysis of December 23
A divided Middle East will be picked off one-at-a-time December 24
Pakistani May Have Offered Iraq Nuke Aid December 22
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Blair puts forces on war-footing December 21
50,000 US troops get order to mobilize December 20
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Pakistani May Have Offered Iraq Nuke Aid December 22
Afghan General: Army Is Poorly Equipped December 22
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Blair puts forces on war-footing December 21
Israeli Army "Short of Men" December 20
50,000 US troops get order to mobilize December 20
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
A divided Middle East will be picked off one-at-a-time
Afghan General: Army Is Poorly Equipped
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army December 21
Blair puts forces on war-footing December 21
Israeli Army "Short of Men" December 20
50,000 US troops get order to mobilize December 20
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Indian Government says no to manpower reduction in Army December 18
Pakistan withdraws warplanes from forward locations December 18
US to closely work with Jamali government December 18
A Piece of Bad News For Saddam December 17
Pakistani May Have Offered Iraq Nuke Aid
Blair puts forces on war-footing
Israeli Army "Short of Men" December 20
50,000 US troops get order to mobilize December 20
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week' December 20
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Indian Government says no to manpower reduction in Army December 18
Pakistan withdraws warplanes from forward locations December 18
US to closely work with Jamali government December 18
A Piece of Bad News For Saddam December 17
Two Stories from Debka: Extracts December 17
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election December 16
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists December 16
Postscript: A New Model Afghan Army
50,000 US troops get order to mobilize
Hi-tech arms 'would finish war in a week'
India Today's Account of the India-Pakistan Mobilization Crisis, January and June 2002 December 19
Rebuttal: The Phoney war December 19
Indian Government says no to manpower reduction in Army December 18
Pakistan withdraws warplanes from forward locations December 18
US to closely work with Jamali government December 18
A Piece of Bad News For Saddam December 17
Two Stories from Debka: Extracts December 17
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election December 16
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists December 16
Israeli Army 'short of men'
Rebuttal: The Phoney war
Indian Government says no to manpower reduction in Army December 18
Pakistan withdraws warplanes from forward locations December 18
US to closely work with Jamali government December 18
A Piece of Bad News For Saddam December 17
Two Stories from Debka: Extracts December 17
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election December 16
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists December 16
Dogs die to teach Peru's soldiers how to kill December 15
Two View of Pakistan and the US December 14
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption December 13
Pakistan withdraws warplanes from forward locations
US to closely work with Jamali government
A Piece of Bad News For Saddam December 17
Two Stories from Debka: Extracts December 17
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election December 16
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists December 16
Dogs die to teach Peru's soldiers how to kill December 15
Two View of Pakistan and the US December 14
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption December 13
Two Stories from Debka: Extracts
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election December 16
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists December 16
Dogs die to teach Peru's soldiers how to kill December 15
Two View of Pakistan and the US December 14
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption December 13
The War After Iraq December 13
Scuds and Dud Stories December 12
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
Bush gives CIA licence to kill terrorists
Dogs die to teach Peru's soldiers how to kill December 15
Two View of Pakistan and the US December 14
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption December 13
The War After Iraq December 13
Scuds and Dud Stories December 12
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
Gujarat's day of reckoning December 12
US naval commander visits Siachin Glacier December 12
British Expert Says Iraq Attack Inevitable December 12
Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen December 11
Hindu Nationalist Party Wins Key Gujarat Election
Two View of Pakistan and the US December 14
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption December 13
The War After Iraq December 13
Scuds and Dud Stories December 12
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
Gujarat's day of reckoning December 12
US naval commander visits Siachin Glacier December 12
British Expert Says Iraq Attack Inevitable December 12
Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen December 11
India Activates New Corps December 11
Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington December 10
Dogs die to teach Peru's soldiers how to kill
The New US National Security Strategy and Preemption December 13
The War After Iraq December 13
Scuds and Dud Stories December 12
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
Gujarat's day of reckoning December 12
US naval commander visits Siachin Glacier December 12
British Expert Says Iraq Attack Inevitable December 12
Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen December 11
India Activates New Corps December 11
Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington December 10
The War After Iraq
Scuds and Dud Stories December 12
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
Gujarat's day of reckoning December 12
US naval commander visits Siachin Glacier December 12
British Expert Says Iraq Attack Inevitable December 12
Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen December 11
India Activates New Corps December 11
Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington December 10
Debka on Al Qaida and Macedonia
Gujarat's day of reckoning
US naval commander visits Siachin Glacier
British Expert Says Iraq Attack Inevitable
Ship carrying dozen North Korean Scud-type missiles intercepted off Yemen December 11
India Activates New Corps December 11
Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington December 10
Washington Gathers Own Evidence of Saddam's WMD December 10
Think Before Jumping On Saudi-Bashing Bandwagon December 9
American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House December 9
Afghanistan's New Army December 8
Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money December 7
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004 December 7
India Activates New Corps
Ginossar Probe Triggered from Washington
Washington Gathers Own Evidence of Saddam's WMD
Think Before Jumping On Saudi-Bashing Bandwagon December 9
American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House December 9
Afghanistan's New Army December 8
Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money December 7
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004 December 7
Washington Gathers Own Evidence of Saddam's WMD
Think Before Jumping On Saudi-Bashing Bandwagon December 9
American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House December 9
Afghanistan's New Army December 8
Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money December 7
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004 December 7
Germany Slashes Defense Spending December 7
American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House
Afghanistan's New Army December 8
Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money December 7
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004 December 7
Germany Slashes Defense Spending December 7
Headlines from Debka December 6
Russia, India sign declaration to combat terror, bolster ties December 6
India's separatists set up agents in Southeast Asia to seek arms December 6
Articles from the Brookings Institute December 6
Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel December 4
Former Shin Bet Official Accused of Managing Arafat's Money December 7
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004 December 7
Germany Slashes Defense Spending December 7
Headlines from Debka December 6
Russia, India sign declaration to combat terror, bolster ties December 6
India's separatists set up agents in Southeast Asia to seek arms December 6
Articles from the Brookings Institute December 6
Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel December 4
US Grows Frustrated With Pakistan Coalition December 4
Afghan national army plan unveiled December 3
NATO's Rapid Reaction Force Ready by 2004
Germany Slashes Defense Spending
Headlines from Debka December 6
Russia, India sign declaration to combat terror, bolster ties December 6
India's separatists set up agents in Southeast Asia to seek arms December 6
Articles from the Brookings Institute December 6
Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel December 4
US Grows Frustrated With Pakistan Coalition December 4
Afghan national army plan unveiled December 3
Nuclear Duplicity From Pakistan: NYT Editorial December 3
Note on Pakistan's Nuclear program December 3
Poor in India Starve as Surplus Wheat Rots December 3
Russia, India sign declaration to combat terror, bolster ties
India's separatists set up agents in Southeast Asia to seek arms
Articles from the Brookings Institute December 6
Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel December 4
US Grows Frustrated With Pakistan Coalition December 4
Afghan national army plan unveiled December 3
Nuclear Duplicity From Pakistan: NYT Editorial December 3
Note on Pakistan's Nuclear program December 3
Poor in India Starve as Surplus Wheat Rots December 3
Arab News Editorial: Evil and stupid November 30
Swiss institute concludes latest bin Laden tape is not authentic November 30
Al Qaeda, Palestinians Prepare Mega-terror for Israel December 4
US Grows Frustrated With Pakistan Coalition December 4
Afghan national army plan unveiled December 3
Nuclear Duplicity From Pakistan: NYT Editorial December 3
Note on Pakistan's Nuclear program December 3
Poor in India Starve as Surplus Wheat Rots December 3
Arab News Editorial: Evil and stupid November 30
Swiss institute concludes latest bin Laden tape is not authentic November 30
US Grows Frustrated With Pakistan Coalition
Afghan national army plan unveiled December 3
Nuclear Duplicity From Pakistan: NYT Editorial December 3
Note on Pakistan's Nuclear program December 3
Poor in India Starve as Surplus Wheat Rots December 3
Arab News Editorial: Evil and stupid November 30
Britain, France, Indian forces conduct joint exercises in Desert November 30
Jamali govt may review cases against Benazir, Zardari November 30
Kenya attacks Six Pakistanis among 12 held November 30
Saudis may panic and sell US investments: Alwaleed November 30
US, Pakistan Tensions Escalate November 30
Swiss institute concludes latest bin Laden tape is not authentic November 30
Nuclear Duplicity From Pakistan: NYT Editorial
Note on Pakistan's Nuclear program
Poor in India Starve as Surplus Wheat Rots
Arab News Editorial: Evil and stupid November 30
Britain, France, Indian forces conduct joint exercises in Desert November 30
Jamali govt may review cases against Benazir, Zardari November 30
Kenya attacks Six Pakistanis among 12 held November 30
Saudis may panic and sell US investments: Alwaleed November 30
US, Pakistan Tensions Escalate November 30
Swiss institute concludes latest bin Laden tape is not authentic November 30
This article has nothing to do with strategic or military matters. Nonetheless, it is a clear example of why India has not, in 55 years as an independent state, fulfilled its potential to be a major power. The reason why, in short, is India's elite.
Britain, France, Indian forces conduct joint exercises in Desert
Jamali govt may review cases against Benazir, Zardari
Kenya attacks Six Pakistanis among 12 held
Saudis may panic and sell US investments: Alwaleed
US, Pakistan Tensions Escalate
Swiss institute concludes latest bin Laden tape is not authentic
Pakistan begins troops pull-back November 29
Bangladesh rejects India's terror charges November 29
Retrospective: Debka Article of November 25 November 29
South Asia November 28
US lets Pakistan off the hook on Korea ties November 27
MMA govt to block al-Qaeda hunt in tribal area: Durrani November 27
Bangladesh rejects India's terror charges
Retrospective: Debka Article of November 25
South Asia November 28
US lets Pakistan off the hook on Korea ties November 27
MMA govt to block al-Qaeda hunt in tribal area: Durrani November 27
Headlines from the Jerusalem Post November 27
In North Korea and Pakistan, Deep Roots of Nuclear Barter
US troops in Afghanistan kill two armed assailants November 24
German anti-ABC tanks could be deployed in likely Iraq war November 24
More Weapons Inspectors Arrive November 24
New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army November 23
US lets Pakistan off the hook on Korea ties November 27
MMA govt to block al-Qaeda hunt in tribal area: Durrani November 27
Headlines from the Jerusalem Post November 27
In North Korea and Pakistan, Deep Roots of Nuclear Barter
US troops in Afghanistan kill two armed assailants November 24
German anti-ABC tanks could be deployed in likely Iraq war November 24
More Weapons Inspectors Arrive November 24
New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army November 23
Israel November 23
Israeli army desertions rise November 22
Debka Headlines November 22
MMA govt to block al-Qaeda hunt in tribal area: Durrani
Headlines from the Jerusalem Post
In North Korea and Pakistan, Deep Roots of Nuclear Barter November 25
US troops in Afghanistan kill two armed assailants November 24
German anti-ABC tanks could be deployed in likely Iraq war November 24
More Weapons Inspectors Arrive November 24
New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army November 23
Israel November 23
Israeli army desertions rise November 22
Debka Headlines November 22
"New Start": Arab News Editorial on New Pakistan Prime Minister November 22
Two days before the Likud primary that most polls are predicting Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will win handily, Sharon told supporters in Hadera Tuesday the battle is not over and warned them not to be complacent.
The Middle East is facing a prolonged drought, according to the findings of a 15 year-long research project by experts from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, sponsored by UNESCO.
The US is assembling a team to examine Israel's assistance needs, the White House said Tuesday.
Duvdevan soldiers captured Tulkarm area Tanzim commander Mansur Shrem in Ramallah late Monday night. He was in the midst of planning terrorist attacks inside Israel, according to the IDF.
The husband of UNRWA legal adviser Allegra Pacheko, who was arrested in his Dehaishe home on November 22, is under investigation by the Shin Bet for security reasons, a security source told said Tuesday.
The Palestinian Authority's Supreme Court is expected to issue its ruling Wednesday in the case of Fuad Shubaki, the senior PA official who was accused of financing the Karine A weapons ship.
Fatah officials have called upon the Palestinian Authority to take a political decision to reassert its authority on the ground, even if that means confronting Hamas.
The recent increase in Palestinian terrorist operations appears designed to influence the Knesset election, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Tuesday.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has invited newly elected Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna to Cairo for talks, Israel Radio's Arab affairs desk reported Tuesday.
US troops in Afghanistan kill two armed assailants November 24
German anti-ABC tanks could be deployed in likely Iraq war November 24
More Weapons Inspectors Arrive November 24
New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army November 23
Israel November 23
Israeli army desertions rise November 22
Debka Headlines November 22
"New Start": Arab News Editorial on New Pakistan Prime Minister November 22
Letter to the Editor: PLAN Warship Purchases November 21
Antichemical troops fill a niche for Nato November 21
When it's suicide to join Russia's armed forces November 21
German anti-ABC tanks could be deployed in likely Iraq war
More Weapons Inspectors Arrive
New force will end spectre of French-dominated Euro army November 23
Israel November 23
Israeli army desertions rise November 22
Debka Headlines November 22
"New Start": Arab News Editorial on New Pakistan Prime Minister November 22
Letter to the Editor: PLAN Warship Purchases November 21
Antichemical troops fill a niche for Nato November 21
When it's suicide to join Russia's armed forces November 21
US troops in Afghanistan kill two armed assailants
Israel
Israeli army desertions rise November 22
Debka Headlines November 22
"New Start": Arab News Editorial on New Pakistan Prime Minister November 22
Letter to the Editor: PLAN Warship Purchases November 21
Antichemical troops fill a niche for Nato November 21
When it's suicide to join Russia's armed forces November 21
Ready and Willing, but Are They Able? November 21
Fourth Afghan battalion graduates November 21
Britain prepares 30,000 troops to answer US call for coalition force November 21
Debka Headlines
"New Start": Arab News Editorial on New Pakistan Prime Minister
Letter to the Editor: PLAN Warship Purchases November 21
Antichemical troops fill a niche for Nato November 21
When it's suicide to join Russia's armed forces November 21
Ready and Willing, but Are They Able? November 21
Fourth Afghan battalion graduates November 21
Britain prepares 30,000 troops to answer US call for coalition force November 21
Tensions High As Inspectors Return November 20
US Plans To Regain Supercomputer Lead November 20
The MUAV: Six Inches Long and Deadly November 20
Navies Overseas: China Buys Russian Vessels To Mount Naval Challenge To U.S. November 20
Israeli army desertions rise
Antichemical troops fill a niche for Nato
When it's suicide to join Russia's armed forces
Ready and Willing, but Are They Able?
Fourth Afghan battalion graduates
Britain prepares 30,000 troops to answer US call for coalition force
Tensions High As Inspectors Return November 20
US Plans To Regain Supercomputer Lead November 20
The MUAV: Six Inches Long and Deadly November 20
Navies Overseas: China Buys Russian Vessels To Mount Naval Challenge To U.S. November 20
US tells Damascus to close Islamic Jihad offices November 19
Israeli Airports Authority denies security flaw November 19
Another Attempt for Pakistan Coalition Fails November 19
Two Warnings: Saddam's Forces No Pushover November 18
Letter to the Editor: PLAN Warship Purchases
US Plans To Regain Supercomputer Lead
The MUAV: Six Inches Long and Deadly
Navies Overseas: China Buys Russian Vessels To Mount Naval Challenge To U.S.
US tells Damascus to close Islamic Jihad offices November 19
Israeli Airports Authority denies security flaw November 19
Another Attempt for Pakistan Coalition Fails November 19
Two Warnings: Saddam's Forces No Pushover November 18
News Update November 17
US, Iran Move To Cooperate Over Iraq War November 16
Hunters trying to exploit disarray within al-Qaeda November 16
150 feared dead as Maoists launch attacks in Nepal November 16
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable November 15
Israeli Airports Authority denies security flaw
Another Attempt for Pakistan Coalition Fails
Two Warnings: Saddam's Forces No Pushover November 18
News Update November 17
US, Iran Move To Cooperate Over Iraq War November 16
Hunters trying to exploit disarray within al-Qaeda November 16
150 feared dead as Maoists launch attacks in Nepal November 16
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable November 15
Australian to lead UN weapons inspection team November 15
First phase of Indian troops'pull-back to be over by December November 15
CAR Ruling party Accuses Opposition in October Attack November 15
News Briefs November 14
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration November 14
News Update November 17
US, Iran Move To Cooperate Over Iraq War November 16
Hunters trying to exploit disarray within al-Qaeda November 16
150 feared dead as Maoists launch attacks in Nepal November 16
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable November 15
Australian to lead UN weapons inspection team November 15
First phase of Indian troops'pull-back to be over by December November 15
CAR Ruling party Accuses Opposition in October Attack November 15
News Briefs November 14
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration November 14
US, Iran Move To Cooperate Over Iraq War November 16
Hunters trying to exploit disarray within al-Qaeda November 16
150 feared dead as Maoists launch attacks in Nepal November 16
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable November 15
Australian to lead UN weapons inspection team November 15
First phase of Indian troops'pull-back to be over by December November 15
CAR Ruling party Accuses Opposition in October Attack November 15
News Briefs November 14
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration November 14
Hunters trying to exploit disarray within al-Qaeda
150 feared dead as Maoists launch attacks in Nepal
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable November 15
Australian to lead UN weapons inspection team November 15
First phase of Indian troops'pull-back to be over by December November 15
CAR Ruling party Accuses Opposition in October Attack November 15
News Briefs November 14
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration November 14
Netanyahu says he would expel Arafat if elected PM November 13
Headlines from Debka November 13
Report: 48,000 to 260,000 could die if Iraq is attacked November 13
· To ensure that Iran, which the Bush administration accuses of supporting Middle East militants and trying to develop nuclear weapons, is not the next target of the U.S. war on terrorism.
· To score domestic political points in a growing feud between conservatives and reformers. Conservative clerics who have the upper hand in the Iranian government still chant "Death to America" in public but would want to get credit for any improvement in relations, analysts say. The United States broke off diplomatic ties in 1980 during a crisis over the seizure of hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. According to a recent poll, three-fourths of Iranians want such relations restored.
Australian to lead UN weapons inspection team
First phase of Indian troops'pull-back to be over by December
CAR Ruling party Accuses Opposition in October Attack
News Briefs November 14
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration November 14
Netanyahu says he would expel Arafat if elected PM November 13
Headlines from Debka November 13
Report: 48,000 to 260,000 could die if Iraq is attacked November 13
Update November 12, 2002
Two Indian Views of how the US Sees India November 11
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq November 10
Pakistan Political News November 10
Former weapons inspector says war with Iraq inevitable
Seven Killed in Kabul University Demonstration
Netanyahu says he would expel Arafat if elected PM November 13
Headlines from Debka November 13
Report: 48,000 to 260,000 could die if Iraq is attacked November 13
Update November 12, 2002
Two Indian Views of how the US Sees India November 11
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq November 10
Pakistan Political News November 10
U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. November 9
Debka Says Bin Laden Alive November 9
Headlines from Debka
Report: 48,000 to 260,000 could die if Iraq is attacked
Update November 12, 2002
Two Indian Views of how the US Sees India November 11
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq November 10
Pakistan Political News November 10
U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. November 9
Debka Says Bin Laden Alive November 9
More Developments on Mrs. Bhutto's Husband November 9
Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel November 8
Netanyahu says he would expel Arafat if elected PM
Two Indian Views of how the US Sees India November 11
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq November 10
Pakistan Political News November 10
U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. November 9
Debka Says Bin Laden Alive November 9
More Developments on Mrs. Bhutto's Husband November 9
Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel November 8
Religious Parties Not to Form Pakistan Government November 7, 2002
Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf November 6
US Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force November 6
Update November 12, 2002
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq November 10
Pakistan Political News November 10
U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. November 9
Debka Says Bin Laden Alive November 9
More Developments on Mrs. Bhutto's Husband November 9
Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel November 8
Religious Parties Not to Form Pakistan Government November 7, 2002
Pakistan Political News
U.S. Warns Iraq to Comply With U.N. November 9
Debka Says Bin Laden Alive November 9
More Developments on Mrs. Bhutto's Husband November 9
Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel November 8
Religious Parties Not to Form Pakistan Government November 7, 2002
Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf November 6
US Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force November 6
Robotic warfare leaves terrorists no hiding place November 6
U.S. Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq
ISLAMABAD: Asif Ali Zardari, husband of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, has said that a dialogue was in process between the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the military government.
Debka Says Bin Laden Alive
More Developments on Mrs. Bhutto's Husband
Political Developments in Pakistan and Israel November 8
Religious Parties Not to Form Pakistan Government November 7, 2002
Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf November 6
US Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force November 6
Robotic warfare leaves terrorists no hiding place November 6
Netanyahu joins Israeli government November 6
Details of Other Predator Attacks November 5
Senegalese president dissolves government November 5
Religious Parties Not to Form Pakistan Government November 7, 2002
Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf November 6
US Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force November 6
Robotic warfare leaves terrorists no hiding place November 6
Netanyahu joins Israeli government November 6
Details of Other Predator Attacks November 5
Senegalese president dissolves government November 5
Editorial from the Arab News on Turkey's Election: "Electoral justice" November 5
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Finally, the Big Cargo Ships Sail for the Gulf November 6
US Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force November 6
Robotic warfare leaves terrorists no hiding place November 6
Netanyahu joins Israeli government November 6
Details of Other Predator Attacks November 5
Senegalese president dissolves government November 5
Editorial from the Arab News on Turkey's Election: "Electoral justice" November 5
The United States and India November 4
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
US Plans Africa Anti-Terror Force
Robotic warfare leaves terrorists no hiding place
Netanyahu joins Israeli government
Details of Other Predator Attacks November 5
Senegalese president dissolves government November 5
Editorial from the Arab News on Turkey's Election: "Electoral justice" November 5
The United States and India November 4
Two Wars in Africa End November 3
US Military News November 2
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
setting up a special military command on the Horn of Africa to track down al-Qaida terrorists trying to slip into countries like Yemen and Somalia to plan more attacks on U.S. interests.
Senegalese president dissolves government
Editorial from the Arab News on Turkey's Election: "Electoral justice"
The United States and India November 4
Report: Iran Detains Bin Laden's Son November 3
Two Wars in Africa End November 3
US Military News November 2
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Details of Other CIA Predator Attacks
Report: Iran Detains Bin Laden's Son November 3
Two Wars in Africa End November 3
US Military News November 2
Catching Up On Afghan News November 1
Opinion: American Homeland Security and the Haitians Have Come October 31
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
The United States and India
Two Wars in Africa End
US Military News November 2
Catching Up On Afghan News November 1
Opinion: American Homeland Security and the Haitians Have Come October 31
Two Views On the Israeli Government Crisis October 32
Russian Economic News from Pravda October 30
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Report: Iran Detains Bin Laden's Son
Catching Up On Afghan News November 1
Opinion: American Homeland Security and the Haitians Have Come October 31
Two Views On the Israeli Government Crisis October 32
Russian Economic News from Pravda October 30
Liberian Opposition Editor to be Released on Conditions October 30
Arafat Cabinet OK'd October 30
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
US Military News
Opinion: American Homeland Security and the Haitians Have Come October 31
Two Views On the Israeli Government Crisis October 32
Russian Economic News from Pravda October 30
Liberian Opposition Editor to be Released on Conditions October 30
Arafat Cabinet OK'd October 30
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Catching Up On Afghanistan News
Two Views On the Israeli Government Crisis
Russian Economic News from Pravda October 30
Liberian Opposition Editor to be Released on Conditions October 30
Arafat Cabinet OK'd October 30
Stratfor On Moscow Theatre Crisis and Chechnya October 29
Debka On Recent Terror Attacks October 29
Moscow Theatre Siege II October 28
Moscow Theatre Siege I October 27
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Opinion: American Homeland Security and the Haitians Have Come
Liberian Opposition Editor to be Released on Conditions
Arafat Cabinet OK'd
Stratfor On Moscow Theatre Crisis and Chechnya October 29
Debka On Recent Terror Attacks October 29
Moscow Theatre Siege II October 28
Moscow Theatre Siege I October 27
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Russian Economic News from Pravda
Debka On Recent Terror Attacks
Moscow Theatre Siege II October 28
Moscow Theatre Siege I October 27
Massive Multi-National Naval Hunt for al Qaeda Ship October 27
Editorial from Arab News: Libya's Decision to Quit Arab Leauge October 26
American Muslims disturbed sniper suspect was convert October 26
Abu Qatada says Sept.11 attacks jihad October 26
The Indian Air Force in Decline
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade October 23
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Stratfor On Moscow Theatre Crisis and Chechnya
Moscow Theatre Siege IOctober 27
Massive Multi-National Naval Hunt for al Qaeda Ship
Editorial from Arab News: Libya's Decision to Quit Arab Leauge October 26
American Muslims disturbed sniper suspect was convert October 26
Abu Qatada says Sept.11 attacks jihad October 26
The Indian Air Force in Decline
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade October 23
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Massive Multi-National Naval Hunt for al Qaeda Ship
Editorial from Arab News: Libya's Decision to Quit Arab Leauge October 26
American Muslims disturbed sniper suspect was convert October 26
Abu Qatada says Sept.11 attacks jihad October 26
The Indian Air Force in Decline
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade October 23
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Moscow Theatre Seige
American Muslims disturbed sniper suspect was convert
Abu Qatada says Sept.11 attacks jihad
American Risks Being Dragged into
Chechen Terror Crisis October 25
Political Impasse in Kashmir May Be Solved October 25
The Indian Air Force in Decline
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade October 23
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Editorial from Arab News Libya's decision to quit Arab Leauge
Political Impasse in Kashmir May Be Solved
The Indian Air Force in Decline October 24
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade October 23
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Ethiopia condemns UN 'threat' claims October 22
American Risks Being Dragged into
Chechen Terror Crisis
News of the Weird: Spain hires tank for its big parade October 23
Indian Air Force Modernizes October 23
Ethiopia condemns UN 'threat' claims October 22
'Heavy army losses' in Sudan October 22
Fighting in Eastern Congo Endangers Peace Process October 22
Indian Air Force Modernizes
Ethiopia condemns UN 'threat' claims October 22
'Heavy army losses' in Sudan October 22
Fighting in Eastern Congo Endangers Peace Process October 22
Bin Laden Is Back in Saudi Arabia - Is Working Closely
with Baghdad October 20
North Korea: Admission Aimed at Drawing U.S. Into
Talks October 20
Yemen feels the backlash October 22
War Diary: Friday, Oct. 18, 2002 October 19
'Heavy army losses' in Sudan
Fighting in Eastern Congo Endangers Peace Process
Bin Laden Is Back in Saudi Arabia - Is Working Closely
with Baghdad October 20
North Korea: Admission Aimed at Drawing U.S. Into
Talks October 20
Yemen feels the backlash October 22
War Diary: Friday, Oct. 18, 2002 October 19
Sharon returns upbeat after US assurances October 19
Indonesia: Too little, too late against terrorism October 19
Ethiopia condemns UN 'threat' claims
North Korea: Admission Aimed at Drawing U.S. Into
Talks
Yemen feels the backlash
War Diary: Friday, Oct. 18, 2002 October 19
Sharon returns upbeat after US assurances October 19
Indonesia: Too little, too late against terrorism October 19
US jets bomb Waziristan Agency October 19
Letter on $13 Oil October 18
Election Results Spell Trouble for Pakistan October 18
France Offers Compromise on UN Resolution on Iraq October 17
An article from Debka
This exclusive information reached DEBKA-Net-Weekly (October 18, Issue
81) from its most credible intelligence and counter-intelligence sources.
His re- appearance in Saudi Arabia, which withdrew his citizenship and
sent him into exile, brings to a close the debate and speculation rife
since the Tora Bora battle in Afghanistan 11 months ago over Bin Laden’s
fate and whereabouts.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources are certain that Bin Laden has brought with
him his closest companions - his Number Two and chief of operations, the
Egyptian Ayman Zuwahri, the hard core of the Islamic terror group’s command,
his close family and his bodyguard. The size of this party indicates the
al Qaeda leadership’s belief they have found a safe hideout, situated in
the Rimar Ar Rakabh (Rider’s Dunes), deep inside the Empty Quarter, a 220,000-
sq. m expanse, the largest sand sea on the face of the earth which straddles
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen and Oman.
Al Qaeda fugitives from the Afghan War have settled at strategic points
in the Gulf and Middle East Region, a legion of close to 2,000 battle-seasoned
zealots, ready and waiting for orders. Intelligence estimates reaching
DEBKA-Net-Weeklyplace around 1,000 fighting men inside Saudi Arabia, most
concentrated in the Asir, the rest scattered round the kingdom; 300-400
in Yemen; 150 in the south Lebanese Palestinian refugee camp at Ein Hilwa;
300 in Mashhad, northern Iran; and 150 in the north Iraqi Kurdish districts
of Bayara and Tawalla, where Iraqi instructors trained al Qaeda operatives
in chemical warfare earlier this year.
An article from STRATFOR
Extracts of an article
by Richard Engel, JDW Special Correspondent
Sharon returns upbeat after US assurances
Indonesia: Too little, too late against terrorism
US jets bomb Waziristan Agency
Letter on $13 Oil October 18
Election Results Spell Trouble for Pakistan October 18
France Offers Compromise on UN Resolution on Iraq October 17
Kurds Prepare Their Own Army October 17
US Anti-Missile Test Successful October 17
Iranians reject anti-US policy October 16
Iraqi War Price $13 per Barrel October 16
An article from STRATFOR
Extracts of an article
by Janine Zacharia of the Jerusalem Post
Extracts of an article
by Richel Langit of the Asia Times
An article
by Mushtaq Yusufzai of Pakistan's The News International
Election Results Spell Trouble for Pakistan
France Offers Compromise on UN Resolution on Iraq October 17
Kurds Prepare Their Own Army October 17
US Anti-Missile Test Successful October 17
Iranians reject anti-US policy October 16
Iraqi War Price $13 per Barrel October 16
Jakarta debates terror decree October 16
Letter on $13 Oil
Kurds Prepare Their Own Army
US Anti-Missile Test Successful
Iranians reject anti-US policy October 16
Iraqi War Price $13 per Barrel October 16
Jakarta debates terror decree October 16
Letter from Mr. John Larsen October 15
Musharraf knew better October 15
India to cut troops in held Kashmir: analysts October 15
Iraq: With Moscow Standing Firm, Will U.S. Go It
Alone? October 13
France Offers Compromise on UN Resolution on Iraq
Iraqi War Price $13 per Barrel
Jakarta debates terror decree
Letter from Mr. John Larsen October 15
Musharraf knew better October 15
India to cut troops in held Kashmir: analysts October 15
Iraq: With Moscow Standing Firm, Will U.S. Go It
Alone? October 13
War on Iraq pays no Russian dividend October 13
'Kuchmagate' and Iraq October 13
Australia on high terror alert October 13
Iranians reject anti-US policy
Musharraf knew better
India to cut troops in held Kashmir: analysts
China versus India: A Letter from R. Narayanan October 14
Iraq: With Moscow Standing Firm, Will U.S. Go It
Alone? October 13
War on Iraq pays no Russian dividend October 13
'Kuchmagate' and Iraq October 13
Australia on high terror alert October 13
Militants urge EU to reject 'terrorist' tag on CPP
Zinni: Israeli retaliation to an Iraqi attack would
be 'disastrous' October 12
Letter from Mr. John Larsen
The Guardian [UK]
Iraq: With Moscow Standing Firm, Will U.S. Go It
Alone? October 13
War on Iraq pays no Russian dividend October 13
'Kuchmagate' and Iraq October 13
Australia on high terror alert October 13
Militants urge EU to reject 'terrorist' tag on CPP
Zinni: Israeli retaliation to an Iraqi attack would
be 'disastrous' October 12
Saudi Arabia warns of inciting terrorists October 12
On TV, Castro denies sabotaging antiterror effort October 12
Kashmir Vote Demolishes Dynasty October 11
Israel: Which Is Lesser Evil -
Hamas Or Arafat? October 11
Two articles from Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia October 11
China versus India: A Letter from R. Narayanan
War on Iraq pays no Russian dividend
'Kuchmagate' and Iraq
Australia on high terror alert
Militants urge EU to reject 'terrorist' tag on CPP
Zinni: Israeli retaliation to an Iraqi attack would
be 'disastrous' October 12
Saudi Arabia warns of inciting terrorists October 12
On TV, Castro denies sabotaging antiterror effort October 12
Kashmir Vote Demolishes Dynasty October 11
Israel: Which Is Lesser Evil -
Hamas Or Arafat? October 11
Two articles from Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia October 11
Pakistanis Raid Refugee Camps October 10
Italian troops to man Pak-Afghan border October 9
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam October 8
An article from STRATFOR
Extracts of an article by John Helmer of Hong Kong's Asia
Times
Extracts of an article from Jane's
Extracts of an AAP article via Australia's ninemsn
An article by Lira Dalangin from the Philippines INQ7.net
The government will send a high-level mission team in Germany, Denmark,
Sweden, France, and Spain to ask them to follow an earlier move by the
US to label the communist insurgents terrorists subject to international
sanctions.
October 12,
2002
Saudi Arabia warns of inciting terrorists
US soldier shoots at Kuwaiti car
On TV, Castro denies sabotaging antiterror effort
Kashmir Vote Demolishes Dynasty October 11
Israel: Which Is Lesser Evil -
Hamas Or Arafat? October 11
Two articles from Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia October 11
More on Kuwait Incident October 10
Pakistan Tests Second Missile Just Ahead of Poll October 10
Pakistanis Raid Refugee Camps October 10
17 die in Afghan factional fighting October 9
Italian troops to man Pak-Afghan border October 9
US Marine dies in attack by Kuwaitis October 9
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam October 8
Extracts of an article by Janine Zacharia of the Jerusalem
Post
Extracts of an AP article
by Donna Abu-Nasr
An article from Saudi Arabia's Arab
News
Kuwait yesterday, after being threatened with a firearm by one of its
occupants, a US defense official said. The incident came a day after an
attack on US troops engaged in training claimed the life of a marine and
left another wounded.
Extracts of an article by Nancy San Martin of the Miami
Herald
Israel: Which Is Lesser Evil -
Hamas Or Arafat?
Two articles from Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia
More on Kuwait Incident October 10
Pakistan Tests Second Missile Just Ahead of Poll October 10
Pakistanis Raid Refugee Camps October 10
17 die in Afghan factional fighting October 9
Italian troops to man Pak-Afghan border October 9
US Marine dies in attack by Kuwaitis October 9
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam October 8
IDF: Most casualties in Gaza raid were terrorists October 8
Letter from Major A.H. Amin on the Pakistan Army October 7
Iraq after Saddam: what next? October 6
Kashmir Vote Demolishes Dynasty
Rebel Raid Caps Bloody Elections in Indian Kashmir
Pakistan Tests Second Missile Just Ahead of Poll
Pakistanis Raid Refugee Camps
17 die in Afghan factional fighting October 9
Italian troops to man Pak-Afghan border October 9
US Marine dies in attack by Kuwaitis October 9
Ivory Coast Forces Penetrate Rebel Stronghold October 8
At Least 14 Dead in Violence Ahead of Kashmir Vote October 8
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam October 8
IDF: Most casualties in Gaza raid were terrorists October 8
Letter from Major A.H. Amin on the Pakistan Army October 7
Iraq after Saddam: what next? October 6
AP
KUWAIT (AP) - Two Kuwaiti gunmen in a pickup truck attacked U.S. forces during war games Tuesday on an island in the Persian Gulf, killing one Marine and wounding another before they were shot to death by U.S. troops. Kuwait called the assault a ``terrorist act.''
The Pentagon said the assailants pulled up to a group of Marines conducting urban assault training on Failaka, an uninhabited island off Kuwait's coast, and opened fire with small arms. They then drove to another site, stopped and attacked again before being killed by Marines, the Pentagon said.
Marines later found three AK-47s and ammunition inside the vehicle, according to a statement released in Washington by the Bahrain-based U.S. Fifth Fleet. It said the injured Marine was hit in the arm.
In a brief statement, the Kuwaiti Interior Ministry condemned the attack and identified the assailants as Anas al-Kandari, born in 1981, and Jassem al-Hajiri, born in 1976. It said both were Kuwaiti civilians.
U.S. intelligence has not determined if the attackers had any terrorist links, said an intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
An Interior Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the two men as fundamentalist Muslims. More than 30 of their friends and relatives were detained for questioning, he said…
Pentagon spokesman Lt. Daniel Hetlage said the Marines returned to their ships shortly after the attack, but would resume exercises on the island Wednesday.
Failaka Island, about 10 miles east of Kuwait City, was abandoned by its inhabitants when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, and Iraqi forces heavily mined it during their occupation.
After a U.S.-led coalition liberated Kuwait in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the government compensated islanders for their property and resettled them on the mainland. The island has since been cleared of mines and many Kuwaitis fish there on weekends. Some former residents visit occasionally.
The shooting attack was unprecedented in Kuwait, a Washington ally since the Gulf War. More than a decade later, most Kuwaitis remain supportive of the close relationship. ..
The U.S. Army prepositions weapons at Camp Doha, located along the Gulf coast about 12 miles west of Kuwait City. The U.S. Air Force uses two Kuwaiti bases to patrol the southern no-fly zone over Iraq, which was set up after the war to protect Iraqi Shiites who rose up against Saddam.
Reuters
…A Kuwaiti journalist with al-Rai al-Aam newspaper, Majid al-Ali, who is familiar with local Islamists, told Reuters the Marines' attackers had relatives held by the U.S. military at a prison camp at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.
But the head of a Kuwaiti defense committee for the Kuwaiti detainees, Khalid al-Odah, said there was only a very distant relationship and "not at all direct."
"This attack is not linked... One of the three Kandaris held in Guantanamo is not even related to the other two," he said.
The United States is holding about 600 people, including 12 Kuwaitis, at Guantanamo after they were arrested during U.S. operations in Afghanistan….
[orbat.com note: Reuters also adds that according to local sources the two men were cousins]
Extracts from Reuters report By Sheikh Mushtaq and Terry Friel
BATOTE/SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) - India wound up a bloody election in Kashmir Tuesday, saying almost one in two voters cast their ballot despite a separatist boycott and a campaign of violence by militants set on sabotaging the poll…
Successful elections had been seen by New Delhi as a necessary, but not the only, condition for talks with Pakistan, with whom it almost went to war in June.
Election officials in the summer capital, Srinagar, said 45 percent of registered voters turned out over the four voting days, lower than the 54 percent in the 1996 poll but a result seen by officials as strong given the level of bloodshed.
"For the whole world, the people of Kashmir have given the message that terrorism cannot be forced on people," Jammu and Kashmir Chief Secretary I.S. Mahli, the state's top bureaucrat, told reporters. "We don't want militancy, we want democracy."
At least 11 people died Tuesday, one of the bloodiest of the four voting days which began on Sept. 16.
POLLING STATION ATTACKED
Suspected Muslim militants stormed a polling station in the southern town of Doda, hurling grenades and gunning down two paramilitary policemen before one of the attackers was killed.
The Indian army said it killed five suspected rebels as they tried to enter the state across the cease-fire line dividing Indian and Pakistani forces. Another rebel, a paramilitary policeman and a civilian died in other incidents.
More than 600 people have died, half of them political workers and other civilians, since the poll was called in August.
But voters, numbed by 13 years of killing, were not scared off and there are signs the pro-Indian ruling National Conference's once-unassailable dominance may be reduced. That would open the door for more responsive government after years of neglect…
Many of those who turned out hope the election will end the violence and improve living standards in the state, where many people have no electricity or clean water…
Tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals remain high, stoked by New Delhi's repeated charges that Pakistan sponsors Islamic militants in Kashmir and elsewhere in India in defiance of a promise to Washington to crack down on the rebels and try to calm the situation.
Pakistan has dismissed the Kashmir election as a farce, saying Kashmiris should be allowed a plebiscite to join India or Pakistan. Islamabad denies sponsoring the militants.
Some analysts say that by turning out in such numbers, voters had shown a defiance that weakened the militant cause.
"Based on the response of the voters, the cause of militancy has been blunted," said Uday Bhaskar, of the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis. "As much as it's a cliche, the ballot has proved to be the preferred option as opposed to the bullet."
Analysts say the poll is unlikely to have an immediate significant impact on the latest stand-off between India and Pakistan, which have fought two of their three wars over the territory. Some attention is now expected to turn to Pakistan's own election.
"The relationship continues to be frayed with a very high level of distrust on both sides," political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan told Reuters in New Delhi. "From the Indian point of view, there's one major change: this election has not been marred by any claims of foul means."
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan, locked in a military standoff with India, said it successfully test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile Tuesday just two days before it holds a general election.
The test was the second and last in a series that analysts said was a signal to nuclear rival India at a time of increased tension and aimed to enhance the military's image just two days before it officially hands the country over to civilian rule.
President Pervez Musharraf, who took power in a bloodless coup in 1999, enjoys broad support in Pakistan, and standing up to arch-foe India is likely to prove popular.
While not seen as a direct vote-winner for pro-Musharraf parties in Thursday's Pakistani poll, analysts said the missile test is the military's way of showing that the country needs a strong general at the helm.
"The army is creating a sense of fear in the public's mind," said Pervez Hoodbye, an academic and commentator in Islamabad.
"It is the only way that the military can survive, to create this mentality and sense of being besieged by India. He has to occasionally rattle his sabers and issue threats now and then."
Musharraf will remain president for another five years after the poll, and although he has promised to hand power over to an elected parliament, analysts and ordinary Pakistanis expect him to go on running the country.
He has been accused by political opponents of a brazen attempt to hold on to power by banning key opponents, enhancing his powers, extending his tenure by five years in a widely criticized referendum and backing a large political party.
"All this interference is going to undermine the credibility of elections," said Afrasiab Khattack, chairman of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.
But Musharraf vowed the vote would be fair.
"As far as I am concerned it is a totally transparent and fair election that is going to take place," he told the London-based Pakistani satellite channel ARY late Tuesday
Tuesday's missile test was the second in five days and a repeat of Friday's successful launch of a medium-range Hatf-IV (Shaheen-1) surface-to-surface missile. Jane's Defense Weekly says the Shaheen-1 has a range of about 430 miles and can carry a 2,200-pound warhead.
Friday, India test-fired a short-range surface-to-air missile of its own just hours after Pakistan's exercise and linked Islamabad's actions to the Pakistani election.
When asked in Berlin what India would do in response to the new test, Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha said: "Nothing. They are a sovereign country. They have tested their missiles. Good luck to them."
But in an interview to appear in Die Welt newspaper on Wednesday, he was more forthright, lambasting Musharraf personally for failing to stop Islamic militants fighting Indian rule in the disputed Kashmir region from crossing from Pakistan.
Sinha said Musharraf was "personally responsible for the terror" in Indian-controlled Kashmir. "All terrorist activities take place on the command of Pakistani authorities," he added.
The threat of war between the neighbors has receded since June when tensions were at their height.
However, verbal sparring between the rivals has intensified in recent weeks as India accused Pakistan of undermining its Kashmir elections by encouraging Islamic militants to step up their violent separatist campaign.
Islamabad has denied the charge, and blamed Indian intelligence for sponsoring violence in Pakistan…
[Orbat.com note: When speaking to an Italin team of researchers last year Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai the man responsible for managing the Pakistani nuclear deterrent listed the six thresholds at which the Pakistani govt. would consider the employment of nuclear weapons. Extraordinarily one of these was if "India pushes Pakistan into political destabilization". The Pakistan Army's message is not merely internal - this is a period of deep anxiety for them and are deeply resentful of Indian attempts at coercive diplomacy in the recent past. Domestically as well ballistic missiles are a potent symbol in Pakistan. Crude metal and fiberglass models can be found not only on traffic circles but in poor city neighborhoods as well. With names derived from successful but ruthless and bloody Muslim Central Asian conquerors they are a celebration of defiance against a simultaneously feared and scorned 'Hindu' India.]
Extracts from AP report by PAUL HAVEN
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (AP) - Pakistani commandos and FBI agents raided a refugee camp Tuesday, arresting a man they said was linked to a renegade Afghan commander. Elsewhere, police detained at least five men accused of working with rival India to sabotage upcoming parliamentary elections.
More than 100 black-clad anti-terrorist police stormed the remote Shamshatoo refugee camp in northwest Pakistan and arrested Khan Mohammed, an Afghan that authorities say was head of security for warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami group is opposed to the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, has called for a ``holy war'' against America and warned of stepped up terrorist attacks on U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
Four other men - three Pakistanis and an Afghan whom authorities identified as Afsar Khan - also were arrested at the refuge camp.
All were being questioned about a series of attacks in Pakistan on Western and Christian targets. They include a June car bombing outside the U.S. Consulate in Karachi that killed 12 Pakistanis, and the killings last month of seven Christian charity workers.
Authorities say they also want to question the men about two attacks in August near Islamabad - one on a Christian missionary school and the other against a Presbyterian hospital.
At least 37 people have been killed and about 100 injured in acts of violence against Christians and Westerners in recent months. About 3.8 million Christians - some 2.5 percent of the population - live in Pakistan, which is 96 percent Muslim.
Meanwhile, authorities said they arrested at least five men accused of links to India's intelligence agency, called the Research and Analysis Wing or RAW, accused of plotting to sabotage Thursday's parliamentary elections.
The elections are the first for Pakistan since a 1999 coup by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf ended democratic rule.
Police in Rawalpindi, just outside the capital, paraded three of the men before journalists, and displayed weapons - including 40 pounds of plastic explosives, pistols and hand grenades - seized when the men were arrested hiding under a bridge near Pakistani controlled Kashmir
The men, all bearded and wearing black blindfolds, were taken out of an armored police vehicle in a courtyard at the local police station, as machine-gun toting security forces looked on from overhead.
``Our intelligence agencies have arrested some terrorists who had been sent to Pakistan by the Indian (spy agency) RAW with explosive material and live bombs in order to carry out attacks on polling stations,'' Information Minister Nisar Memon told The Associated Press.
Pakistan and India routinely accuse each other of fomenting violence, usually with little proof. Rawalpindi Police Chief Inayat Farooq said the men confessed to plotting bombings in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, and had given specific information about Indian officers who had instructed them to carry out the attacks.
``Yes, the Indian government is behind all of this,'' Farooq said. ``The Indians don't want Pakistan to be a stable country.''
Also on Tuesday, police in the eastern city of Lahore said they had arrested two Pakistani men accused of working for India to plant bombs on election day in the eastern Punjab province.
The men were arrested in the border town of Kasur just after they crossed the Indian border and entered Pakistan, according to senior police official Javed Noor. Noor said both men had confessed
Italian troops to man Pak-Afghan border
US Marine dies in attack by Kuwaitis
Ivory Coast Forces Penetrate Rebel Stronghold October 8
At Least 14 Dead in Violence Ahead of Kashmir Vote October 8
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam October 8
IDF: Most casualties in Gaza raid were terrorists October 8
Letter from Major A.H. Amin on the Pakistan Army October 7
Iraq after Saddam: what next? October 6
Military Operations Against Iraq - One Possible Scenario October 5
Iraq: Use of force is unavoidable October 5
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
17 die in Afghan factional fighting
At Least 14 Dead in Violence Ahead of Kashmir Vote
France, Britain Aim to Disarm Iraq Not Topple Saddam
IDF: Most casualties in Gaza raid were terrorists
Letter from Major A.H. Amin on the Pakistan Army October 7
Iraq after Saddam: what next? October 6
US special envoy in top level talks with N Koreans October 6
Saddam's Web of Lies Conceals Iraq WMD Program October 6
Military Operations Against Iraq - One Possible Scenario October 5
Iraq: Use of force is unavoidable October 5
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Extracts from a Reuters report by Silvia Aloisi
BOUAKE, Ivory Coast (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's army on Monday penetrated the rebel stronghold of Bouake after attacking from two sides with mortar and machinegun fire as bands of rebels tried to repel the offensive.
Government troops reached the town center after heavy mortar and machinegun fire to the east and west. Residents said groups of rebels roamed the streets, firing occasional bursts.
"Two (loyalist) armored vehicles opened fire on us and burned down the market. This is all we had to eat for tomorrow and it's all burning now," one man said.
France said it was worried by the situation in its former colony after West African mediation efforts collapsed Sunday, and told President Laurent Gbagbo he should sign a cease-fire.
The loyalist offensive, which began Sunday, appeared to have dashed hopes of a truce to end the worst crisis in what was once an island of stability in a poor and turbulent region.
…
Rebels of the Patriotic Movement of Ivory Coast hold most of the north in a conflict that has left hundreds dead and sharpened ethnic and religious divisions, as well as terrifying a region fearing the consequences of a full-blown civil war.
Fighting has also pushed cocoa prices well over 16-year highs on concern at spreading instability in the world's biggest grower of the beans used to make chocolate.
As the loyalists continued their military build up, troops at the airport in the capital Yamoussoukro, 65 miles south of Bouake, unloaded boxes of ammunition from a foreign-registered aircraft.
Gbagbo's spokesman, Toussaint Alain, said in a statement issued in Paris that the military operation would continue "until legality is restored over all the national territory."
KEY FRENCH ROLE
More than 1,000 French troops have evacuated thousands of foreigners and are providing what is described as logistical support for the army.
Rebels in Bouake accuse the French of blocking their advance and say they saw white faces they presumed to be those of French advisers during fighting Sunday.
France's Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin called on Gbagbo to sign a cease-fire brokered by West African ministers who gave up hope of a truce and packed their bags Sunday.
People in the government-held south, which is mainly Christian, seem to be overwhelmingly against making concessions to the rebels, many of whom are northern Muslims…
Well over 300 people have died in the rebellion. Most were killed on the first day and in two failed attacks on Bouake.
The rebels, some of whom are soldiers angry at being pushed out of the army, want an amnesty, reintegration in the forces and the resignation of the defense minister and army chief.
But they have also said they want new elections to replace a poll won by Gbagbo two years ago amid a wave of bloodshed that set his militants against those of opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, a northerner who was barred from contesting.
Extracts from Reuters report by Pawel Kopczynski and Terry Friel
SERI BHADARWAH/SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) - At least 14 people died in separatist violence and Indian Kashmir's main city shut down Monday on the eve of the final round of a bloodied state election India is looking to for a boost to its rule.
Soldiers patrolled towns and villages ahead of Tuesday's voting in some of Jammu and Kashmir's most rugged mountains and forests, home to a major concentration of Islamic separatists.
The mainly Muslim state's main city, Srinagar, and other key towns ground to a halt over U.S. preacher Jerry Falwell's reported comment that the prophet Mohammad was "a terrorist."
Srinagar's shops, business and schools closed over Falwell's reported remarks and the normally bustling city of 1.4 million was also expected to close Tuesday for an anti-poll strike called by separatists, although it has already voted.
As night fell, heavily armed troops patrolled towns and villages in the seven constituencies voting in the fourth and final round of a poll India has hailed as a victory of the ballot over the bullet. Pakistan has called it a farce.
India also views the poll as a test of Pakistan's vow to stop Islamic militants crossing the border to join a 13-year revolt against Indian rule in which more than 35,000 people have died.
Dozens of militants have been killed since the election began on September 16, and hundreds of people have died since the poll was announced in August. The Indian government has blamed Pakistan for driving the violence and says the infiltrations have not stopped.
ELECTION OFFICIALS FIRED AT
Suspected Islamic militants shot at election officials on the way to a polling station Monday evening in the remote, heavily forested southern Doda district, where six seats will be decided.
One of the soldiers escorting the officials was wounded, police said.
Suspected rebels also detonated a bomb at a bus station in Kishtwar in Doda district, but there were no injuries or damage to property, police said.
Earlier, at least three suspected separatists, a policeman and a civilian died in separate incidents across the district.
Three suspected rebels, three civilians and three security force personnel were killed in clashes elsewhere.
The seventh seat to be contested Tuesday is in Kupwara, bordering Pakistan, where voting was postponed from the first round after state Law Minister Mushtaq Lone was assassinated by separatists opposed to the election.
More than 600 people, including about three dozen political workers, have been killed since the poll was called on Aug. 2.
Monday's protest in Srinagar was sparked by a newspaper report quoting Falwell's comments to the American network CBS…
TIGHT SECURITY
Polling stations are under tight security. They have been checked for mines and are protected by machineguns, sandbagged bunkers and armored cars.
Many stations are so remote that electoral officials, some wearing bullet-proof jackets and helmets, have to be dropped by helicopter or travel for half a day by horse.
The result should be known by the end of the week. But with moderate separatists boycotting the poll, the ruling National Conference party is likely to be returned, although its majority may be dented. The party is a member of the federal coalition government.
India hopes the election will bolster its rule after previous elections were dogged by widespread charges of rigging.
Turnout in the first three rounds -- accounting for 80 of the 87 state assembly seats -- ranged between 42 and 47 percent.
That is below the 54 percent turnout in the last poll in 1996 and some analysts say it is neither strong enough to boost India nor weak enough to help Pakistan, which rules a third of Kashmir.
Pakistan says a U.N.-mandated plebiscite should be held in Kashmir to decide whether the territory should join Pakistan or remain with India.
Although some Kashmiris say they stayed away out of fear or voted despite the risks, others refused to vote because they felt the election would do nothing to resolve the long-running row.
[Orbat.com note: We once again pick up coverage of Kashmir's state elections. As we said before there have been consistent indications (canceling military leave etc)that the Indian government is preparing for a confrontation with Pakistan if terrorists significantly disrupt the electoral process. We however remain skeptical as to whether such a confrontation will actually lead to significant hostilities. As has been pointed out many times by our Chief Editor Indian civil and military decision makers are deeply conservative in risk taking. Nevertheless they no doubt recognise the opportunity afforded by the deep sense of vulnerability felt in Islamabad as it goes about its own elections.]
Extracts from Reuters report
by Steve Pagani
PARIS (Reuters) - France and Britain sought Monday to play down differences over Iraq within the U.N. Security Council, agreeing that the focus was on disarming Iraq not on overthrowing President Saddam Hussein.
"We (France) have no particular sympathy for Saddam Hussein's regime, but our aim and that of the international community is not a change of regime," French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin told a foreign press association lunch.
"Britain's position, too, has never been to seek a change of regime in Iraq," he said. "As for the United States, things may change."
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who held talks with Villepin in Paris, told the BBC Sunday that the international community was not bent on overthrowing Saddam.
But in line with London's more hawkish stance toward Baghdad, Straw added that the U.S. and British governments would nevertheless like to see the back of Saddam and his government.
France and other nations on the Security Council are resisting a U.S. push to issue Baghdad with a military threat if it does not give up weapons of mass destruction Washington suspects Iraq possesses.
At a joint news conference, Villepin and Straw said both their countries were working together to try to agree a new U.N. resolution but neither said it was on the brink of making a decision.
"We have a close position and we have the same goals," Villepin said. "We want to go on working together at the Security Council and hope to achieve very quickly a new resolution."
BRITAIN DOES NOT RULE OUT TWO RESOLUTIONS
France, one of the five Security Council members with veto powers, has proposed that any military threat should only be evoked in a second Security Council resolution if it was shown that Iraq had blocked unconditional inspections.
Britain has so far backed Washington's push for a single new U.N. resolution paving the way for military intervention.
But Straw told the news conference Britain would not necessarily be against a two-resolution approach.
"We have said we prefer a single resolution but we have never ruled out two resolutions...and that has always been our position," said Straw. He was due to leave Paris on a whistle-stop tour of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Iran to try to gather support for possible action against Iraq.
The official said Washington still sought a single resolution, but was exploring possible compromises with the French and others.
[Orbat.com note: This is a polite fiction to take the sting out for those who fear American and interventionism are changing the rules of the game. The reality is that Iraq can not be effectively disarmed while Saddam Huessein and those closely associated with him remain in power without de-industrialising Iraq.]
Extracts from Jerusalem Post report by MARGOT DUDKEVITCH AND LAMIA LAHOUD
Most of the 14 Palestinians killed and more than 100 wounded in the IDF operation in Khan Yunis early Monday morning were armed terrorists who fired an array of weapons at Israeli forces, OC Gaza Brig.-Gen. Yisrael Ziv said yesterday.
Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer backed up his statement last night by saying only one of those killed was not a wanted terrorist.
"They were all terrorists with long resumes," he said during a visit to Eilat, "except for one innocent elderly woman."
Ben-Eliezer angrily rebutted visiting European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana for quickly joining an international chorus of criticism. "I advise you to verify the details with Israel before you publicize your reaction to IDF operations," he reportedly told Solana in a telephone conversation.
Ben-Eliezer said details of the terrorist activity of the 13 will be released today.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the IDF had no choice but to use heavy force to extricate soldiers who had come under heavy sniper fire. ..
According to the Prime Minister's Office, Sharon told his guests the purpose of the operation was to arrest two wanted Hamas terrorists.
Sharon said Israel regrets the loss of innocent life, but that the responsibility lies with the terrorists who use civilians as human shields. He said the action in Khan Yunis was necessary because Israel has come under constant mortar attacks from the area. ..
A senior official in the Prime Minister's office said Israel is constantly faced with the difficult choice between taking action and creating deterrence now, or doing nothing and waiting for a "successful" terrorist operation that will require a much heavier response.
Givati Brigade soldiers, together with combat engineers and armored units, backed by IAF attack helicopters, went into Khan Yunis yesterday morning, searching for fugitives and terrorist infrastructure. They entered from the north and west, heading for the strongly pro-Hamas Amal neighborhood to nab two terrorists who had evaded arrest. Troops also arrested another Palestinian wearing a belt of explosives and holding a bag of mortar shells.
As the soldiers made their way out of Khan Yunis, armed men outside the Katiba Mosque fired anti-tank rockets and RPGs and threw grenades at them.
An attack helicopter fired at least one missile in support of the ground troops, causing the vast majority of the casualties.
Ziv strongly denied Palestinian accusations that the soldiers fired on worshipers at the mosque. Noting that the mosque was "a fair distance" from the firefight, he told reporters: "Without a doubt, we are speaking about armed people... they were definitely armed."
He said preliminary investigations show the soldiers responded according to regulations and with restraint, adding that film from a remote-operated drone will support his statements.
The US sharply criticized the operation, saying the IDF "must exercise the utmost discipline and avoid harm to civilians."…
[Orbat.com note: Likud Prime Ministers have always had difficult relations with Washington at times of crisis than Labour PMs, being pricklier and less willing to place their needs second. However, if Sharon does not recognise the importance that this administration places in its 'crusade' against Saddam Hussein - and consequently Arab cooperation- he is going to find himself out of a job. The majority of Israelis understand that with an increasingly critical EU the US is the only power that is willing to help defend their country, and that a leadership that jeopardises the all important tie to America jeopardises the well being of the Jewish state.
On another level these kinds of incidents help illustrate the kind of difficult incidents that Coalition troops will have to deal with in the streets of Baghdad and Basra when military needs meet the cynical use of human shields, a less than friendly press. In fact it will be much worse because Iraqi AAA will demand the use of artillery and/or fast jets dropping 500-2,000 lb LGBs to support the advance of ground forces. We will be treated to stories and if the coalition is not careful, pictures of women, children and the elderly trapped and blown to pieces, and we will be told that its all our fault.]
Iraq after Saddam: what next? October 6
US special envoy in top level talks with N Koreans October 6
Saddam's Web of Lies Conceals Iraq WMD Program October 6
Military Operations Against Iraq - One Possible Scenario October 5
Iraq: Use of force is unavoidable October 5
Cleric opposes Saddam and U.S. October 3
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
A Letter from Major A.H. Amin on the Pakistan Army
US special envoy in top level talks with N Koreans
Saddam's Web of Lies Conceals Iraq WMD Program
Military Operations Against Iraq - One Possible Scenario October 5
Iraq: Use of force is unavoidable October 5
US denies encouraging Israel-Iraq comparison October 5
Ben-Eliezer: US will attack Iraq in November October 4
Cleric opposes Saddam and U.S. October 3
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Today's update is by RK
Extracts of an article from Jane's
An article from Pakistan's Jang
Extracts of an article by Jim Garamone of American Forces Press Service
via DefenseLink
Iraq: Use of force is unavoidable
US denies encouraging Israel-Iraq comparison
Indo-US joint military exercise begins October 4
Pakistan seeks more US assistance October 4
Ben-Eliezer: US will attack Iraq in November October 4
Cleric opposes Saddam and U.S. October 3
Stratfor.com On Iraq October 3
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Update by RK
Extracts of an article from Jane's
Extracts of an article by Marc Erikson in the Asia
Times
Extracts of any article by Janine Zacharia in the Jerusalem
Post
October 4,
2002
Pakistan seeks more US assistance
Ben-Eliezer: US will attack Iraq in November
U.S. To Stay In Afghanistan October 3
Cleric opposes Saddam and U.S. October 3
Stratfor.com On Iraq October 3
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
U.S. Shifts Tactics in al-Qaida Hunt October 1
Troops Seek Out Trapped Westerners October 1
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Indo-US joint military exercise begins
Pakistan seeks more US assistance
Excerpts from na article by Nadeem Malik writing in Pakistan's Jang
Cleric opposes Saddam and U.S.
Stratfor.com On Iraq
The President's Real Goal in Iraq October 2
U.S. Shifts Tactics in al-Qaida Hunt October 1
Troops Seek Out Trapped Westerners October 1
U.S. Effort Aimed At Iraqi Officers October 1
Georgia Says All Rebels Flushed Out of Gorge October 1
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Support a terrorist, lose your citizenship? September 29
U.S. To Stay In Afghanistan
Extracts from a story from the Associated Press
Cleric opposes Saddam and U.S.
Extracts from a story by Borzou Daragahi in the Washington Times
U.S. Shifts Tactics in al-Qaida Hunt October 1
Troops Seek Out Trapped Westerners October 1
U.S. Effort Aimed At Iraqi Officers October 1
Georgia Says All Rebels Flushed Out of Gorge October 1
Pakistan Says India Planning pre-Emptive Strikes September 30
Other News of Interest September 30
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Support a terrorist, lose your citizenship? September 29
The President's Real Goal in Iraq
This article by Jay Bookman of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was forwarded to us by Ram Narayanan. While it's an excellent article and every word should be read, we're mildly puzzled. We thought it was evident to everyone that by attacking Iraq America intends to formalize the American World Empire, clearly announcing to the world what has not been openly said since the first attack on Iraq eleven years ago.
Political science doctorate from University of Chicago and dean of the
international relations program at Johns Hopkins University during the 1990s.
Served in the Reagan State Department, moved to the Pentagon during the first
Bush administration as undersecretary of defense for policy. Sworn in as deputy
defense secretary in March 2001.
Yale Law grad who worked in the Reagan administration as an assistant attorney
general. Switched to the State Department in the first Bush administration as
assistant secretary for international organization affairs. Sworn in as
undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, May 2001.
Harvard doctorate in government who taught at Harvard and at the Naval War
College. Now directs strategic studies at Johns Hopkins and is the author of
several books on military strategy. Was on the Defense Department's policy
planning staff in the first Bush administration and is now on Donald Rumsfeld's
Defense Policy Board.
Law degree from Columbia (Yale undergrad). Held advisory positions in the Reagan
State Department. Was a partner in a Washington law firm in the late '80s before
becoming deputy undersecretary of defense for policy in the first Bush
administration (under Dick Cheney). Now is the vice president's chief of staff.
Doctorate in economics and politics from Oxford University. Worked on policy
issues in the Reagan Defense Department and went into private defense consulting
during the 1990s. Was foreign policy adviser to the 2000 Bush campaign. Sworn in
as undersecretary of defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the
Pentagon, May 2001.
Political science doctorate from Claremont Graduate School. Was in charge of
strategic defense policy at the Defense Department in the first Bush
administration. Now heads the Office of Program, Analysis and Evaluation at the
Defense Department.
Troops Seek Out Trapped Westerners
U.S. Effort Aimed At Iraqi Officers
Georgia Says All Rebels Flushed Out of Gorge
Pakistan Says India Planning pre-Emptive Strikes September 30
Other News of Interest September 30
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Support a terrorist, lose your citizenship? September 29
US pressure on Pakistan not working: Vajpayee September 19
After Saddam: Fledgling states, oceans of oil September 29
Joint force to patrol Herat, Kandahar highway September 28
Debka: CIA Undercover Unit in E. Iran September 27
From AP By MATTHEW ROSENBERG
MASI KALAY, Afghanistan (AP) - Soldiers of the 82nd Airborne are combing the rugged mountains that border Pakistan in a new U.S. military strategy emphasizing conventional forces rather than elite troops in the search for al-Qaida and Taliban fighters.
In a strong show of force, more than 200 soldiers swept into a number of villages in southeastern Afghanistan on Sunday and uncovered a giant cache of weapons: hundreds of rocket propelled grenades, thousands of rounds of heavy machine gun ammunition and dozens of mortar rounds.
For months, the military has relied mostly on small special forces units in the region, one of the most active fronts in the U.S.-led hunt for al-Qaida and Taliban. But since late August, conventional forces - mostly drawn from the 82nd Airborne - began moving from Bagram Air Base, the U.S. military headquarters north of Kabul, and from Kandahar in the south, to growing bases along the volatile Pakistani border.
Having greater numbers of U.S. troops in the area means a large force can more swiftly move in if al-Qaida and Taliban operatives are encountered, said Col. Martin Schweizter, the commander of the operation. ``Being in this particular region right now, we believe it's a target-rich environment,'' he said.
Sunday's mission began around 1 a.m. as Apache gunships and Blackhawk helicopters carrying the first wave of soldiers from a nearby base swept in low through the rugged mountains. Two companies - Alpha and Bravo - of more than 100 men each were planning to link up with about two dozen scouts and other support soldiers who had come in on Humvees. The military took a small contingent of journalists on the mission on condition that some details of the operation and the area be left out.
The operation got off to a difficult and frustrating start.
As the helicopters carrying Alpha company approached Masi Kalay, a collection of mud-brick homes on the slopes leading into a valley, between 20 and 30 men were spotted running for the safety of the mountains. All of them made it.
The first few houses searched by the soldiers yielded little, but at the fourth building, the soldiers found success. The owner, Zahir Shah, told soldiers that weapons and munitions that had been hidden in the village had been moved two days earlier to a hamlet farther south called Golamkhan Kalay, which was next on Alpha company's target list.
Soldiers there found the first weapons cache of the day - 200 land mines, a heavy machine gun, more than 100 rounds of heavy machine gun ammunition, grenades and several rifles. But the search also highlighted the operation's dangers.
As soldiers searched the small hamlet, U.S. forces almost got into a firefight with Pakistani soldiers looking down on them from mountain peaks on their side of the porous and often unclear border, according to soldiers speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Pakistanis came down from the mountain and told the Americans they had crossed into Pakistan. After a brief confrontation - each side with guns at the ready - the Pakistanis backed off, but not before Schweizter ordered mortar teams to prepare to fire a warning shot and called in air support.
Back at Masi Kalay, Alpha company continued its search as the cool dawn gave way to the heat of the day. The villagers were cooperating, but nothing was found and frustration was mounting.
``There's got to be weapons somewhere in this town,'' muttered Sgt. Joseph Smith, a 23-year-old from Rapid River, Mich., as he led his squad from compound to compound at about 7 a.m.
Smith was right. About an hour later, another squad was walking past a stone compound when they noticed a locked door. The owner of the compound couldn't produce a key, so Spc. Ben Refroe kicked the door open.
Inside, there were more than a thousand rounds of heavy machine-gun ammunition, 250 rocket-propelled grenades, mortar shells still in their foam packing, grenades, and land mines.
Finding the cache ``felt good. It shows we're doing something over here,'' Renfroe said. ``A lot of the time we don't find a lot ... It's frustrating, you know why you're over here, but sometimes you feel like you're not getting the job done.''
A few hours later, most of the weapons were blown up as the Americans waited for the Blackhawks to take them back to base.
From AP by ALEXANDRA ZAVIS
YAMOUSSOUKRO, Ivory Coast (AP) - Government soldiers claimed Monday they had inflicted heavy losses on rebel troops in Ivory Coast, while French troops in jeeps with mounted guns scoured the countryside in search of isolated Westerners who might need rescue in case of all-out war.
With rebels and loyalists still facing off ahead of a promised government attack, questions were growing Monday over how well loyalist forces could make good on their threat. Many were armed with outdated equipment, including guns held together with tape.
Trying to avert a bloody showdown, West African foreign ministers flew into the commercial capital Abidjan on Monday to talk with the rebels and try to persuade them to agree to a cease-fire.
Mediators included foreign ministers from Nigeria, Ghana and Togo. The delegation planned to meet with the shadowy rebels, Foreign Minister Hackman Owusu-Agyeman said, confirming that the envoys had managed to identify those they believe are leading the insurgency. He refused to give details.
Launching their insurgency with a bloody coup attempt Sept. 19, rebels took and held control of the central city of Bouake, and northern Korhogo. Insurgents since have grabbed other cities, splitting what was once one of West Africa's most stable nations into rebel- and loyalist-held zones.
Western military officials on Monday reported regular clashes across the north, with one front line around Tiebissou, 25 miles north of Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast's capital and the staging area for Western forces evacuating their nationals.
The government has repeatedly threatened a full-scale war to oust the insurgents, claiming it has stayed its hand only out of concern for civilian lives.
French jeeps with mounted guns, some waving small French flags attached to the jeep frames, set out after sunrise Monday for the west. They were looking for any Westerners, from U.S. Peace Corps volunteers in remote villages to far-flung missionaries, left behind after four days of evacuations by air and by road.
Some nervous residents, watching the French jeeps speed through the western coffee plantations Monday, were impatient for action.
``It's been almost two weeks,'' said Brahima Doumbia, who was chatting outside a mechanics shop in Bouafle, a town west of Yamoussoukro. ``The government keeps saying it's going to intervene and it doesn't.''
Many Western diplomats believe the Ivorian army was thrown into disarray by the mutiny of several hundred soldiers and was also grappling with poor communications and outdated material.
``They are going to fight. It's just a question of when,'' one high-ranking Western military official said Monday, on condition of anonymity.
Accounts from residents of rebel-held towns and others portray the insurgents as well-armed, disciplined and motivated. Ivory Coast loyalist forces, hesitating still to counterattack, appear to be outgunned.
Many Ivorian soldiers seen manning checkpoints on the road from Yamoussoukro to Daloa, in the west, were carrying old-fashioned and inefficient weapons ranging from guns held together with tape to hunting rifles, or guns without magazines.
Some residents who came to greet the French as they made their way west said they had not even seen loyalist troops since the conflict began.
On Monday, Ivory Coast claimed some military success, saying government troops had captured many rebel prisoners and seized arms and munitions after clashes in Sakassou, a town south of Bouake.
``Contrary to rumors, Sakassou is under government control,'' army spokesman Jules Yao Yao said on state television. ``In the past 72 hours, the assailants have suffered enormous losses in men, equipment and weapons. There have been scores of deaths among their troops,'' he said.
The government claims could not immediately be verified.
Ivory Coast accuses outside forces of arming and funding insurgents. The accusation is believed directed against neighboring Burkina Faso, which has denied the charge despite years of animosity.
Djessan Philippe Djangone-Bi, Ivory Coast's ambassador to the United Nations, described the rebels as ``a bunch of mercenaries and deserters'' from Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone and Liberia.
``The rebels have huge, huge amounts of money which they use to enroll young boys. Where do they get all this money? And they have weapons that do not belong to the national arsenal. Where do they get them?'' he said at a news conference in New York on Monday.
Regional leaders, hoping Ivory Coast doesn't follow neighbors Liberia and Sierra Leone down the path of all-out civil war, met in Ghana on Sunday to show support for embattled President Laurent Gbagbo.
But they did not clear an immediate deployment of regional peacekeepers, instead ordering their regional bloc's defense commission to start work putting a joint West African military force on standby. Nigeria has already dispatched fighter jets to Ivory Coast.
Foreign nationals were still trickling into Yamoussoukro on Monday. Eleven people, including seven Americans, were flown in by helicopter before being taken to Accra, in Ghana.
French troops led an evacuation of more than 2,000 Westerners from Bouake on Thursday and Friday. On Sunday, helicopters and cargo planes evacuated some 400 people, including 55 Americans, from Korhogo and surrounding areas.
The effort would include massive leafleting of Iraqi military positions -- a tactic used by U.S. forces during the Gulf War in 1991 -- but also might employ covert techniques that would enable the U.S. message to reach Iraqi commanders, the officials said.
Final authority to use weapons of mass destruction has resided with Hussein. But the Iraqi president's knowledge that the United States would seek to take down Iraqi command centers and communications systems at the outset of any military strike means he has likely already given authority for firing chemical and biological weapons to his most loyal commanders in the field, the officials said. They said Hussein issued similar orders before the Gulf War.
As a result, the sources said, the Pentagon plans to appeal directly to these officers not to use the weapons. One of the biggest challenges before military planners is determining which Iraqi military units can be encouraged to defect in the event of a U.S. invasion and how to communicate with them, defense officials have said.
A British intelligence report released Tuesday by Prime Minister Tony Blair said Iraq could deploy nerve gas and anthrax weapons on 45 minutes' notice. It also said Hussein may have already delegated authority to order use of such weapons to his youngest son, Qusai, who leads the Republican Guard -- elite units that control deployed weapons of mass destruction.
The Pentagon's campaign was signaled recently by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee, Rumsfeld said, "Wise Iraqis will not obey orders to use WMD [weapons of mass destruction]. . . . The United States will make clear at the outset that those who are not guilty of atrocities can play a role in the new Iraq. But if WMD is used, all bets are off."
Rumsfeld added that if the order to use chemical or biological weapons were made by Hussein, "that does not necessarily mean his orders would be carried out. He might not have anything to lose, but those beneath him in the chain of command most certainly would have a great deal to lose."
A Pentagon official said Rumsfeld's comments "are at least the start of telling them we are serious."
After the Gulf War, coalition force interrogators learned that Hussein had decided ahead of time to give commanders the go-ahead to use chemical weapons if Baghdad's communications were interrupted.
One administration source said the Iraqi president issued specific orders to use the weapons if "the allies were winning the ground war and they had crossed a line due west of the city of Al-Amarah," which is 200 miles south of Baghdad. Iraqi unit commanders were also told they should employ the weapons against Iranian forces if they crossed the border during the war and moved into Iraq's Maysan Province, where Al-Amarah is located.
Although Iraq's chemical artillery shells and warheads were deployed during the war, they were not used. U.S. officials now believe this was because the United States had repeatedly cautioned Iraq before the fighting started that use of such weapons would draw an immediate and possibly overwhelming response that would topple Hussein from power.
One reason the Pentagon has adopted a plan to dissuade Iraqi officers from ordering the use of chemical or biological weapons is that, unlike in 1991, this deterrent has been rendered moot by the administration's decision to make removing Hussein the goal of any military action.
Whether a plan to deter Iraqi commanders from employing the weapons will work is a matter of disagreement among military experts. The Republican Guard units that control the weapons are run by Hussein's most loyal officers.
"They will face a short-term or a long-term problem," one former senior intelligence official said. "We may come after them when the fighting is over. But there may be a Saddam loyalist with a gun who is threatening to kill him right away if he doesn't follow orders."
Judith Yaphe, an Iraq specialist at the National Defense University, said that in 1991, according to documents found after the war, Hussein had tried to persuade his commanders to use the weapons because they would be killed anyway. Also, Hussein had placed loyalists with the commanders to enforce his wishes. "The question is, are they still there?" she said.
Richard Russell, a CIA area analyst who specialized in Iraq and is now at the National Defense University, said the effort to deter individual commanders "makes sense as an attempt." But he noted that Iraqi operational security was very good in the Gulf War and "you have to assume it is much better now."
After Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, U.S. officials talked openly of American forces making preparations for waging combat in a chemical environment. Then-Secretary of State James A. Baker III told Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz that Hussein's government would be endangered if such weapons were used. Then-Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney hinted that if such an attack took place against Israel, that country might respond with nuclear weapons.
In the war's aftermath, U.S. intelligence officials learned that Iraq had been deterred from using chemical weapons by the threat of massive retaliation. Iraqi artillery units armed with chemical shells were segregated from the rest of the forces and chemical munitions were never moved to Kuwait and never moved toward the front as coalition forces approached, and in some cases breached, the Iraq-Kuwait border.
From Reuters By Niko Mchedlishvili
TBILISI, Georgia (Reuters) - Georgia, slammed by Russia for failing to crack down on Chechen fighters sheltering in a remote gorge, said on Monday it had flushed out all rebel groups and invited Russian observers to verify its claims.
But the statement seemed unlikely to impress Moscow, which earlier this month threatened pre-emptive strikes inside the ex-Soviet state unless it saw firm action against the rebels in the lawless Pankisi Gorge.
The United States, which has sent specialists to train Georgia's army, has warned Russia against launching any strike on Georgian territory. A State Department spokesman on Monday welcomed Georgia's efforts.
In neighboring Rolpa district, another 14 guerrillas were killed, while the remaining seven were killed in different parts of the kingdom.
Thapa said the drive was aimed at identifying and attacking the insurgents' bases. Some of those killed were instructors at rebel training camps.
In earlier clashes with the army, 39 rebels were killed on Friday and Saturday and another 11 died when explosives they were carrying went off accidentally, officials said.
"The active phase of the anti-criminal and anti-terrorist operation is over," Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze said in a weekly interview with national radio.
"The gorge is cleared of illegal armed groups...The so-called Pankisi problem, widely discussed over the past two years, doesn't exist any more."
Georgia sent 1,000 Interior Ministry troops into the Pankisi Gorge on the border with Russia in August, but Russia has derided Tbilisi's efforts as a "show" unlikely to yield results.
But a NATO official visiting the Pankisi Gorge praised the Georgian operation and criticized the Russian threats.
"We hope that Russian authorities will see that Georgians are in fact doing what they can," Simon Lunn, secretary-general of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, told Reuters.
"It's unacceptable for a country to threaten another country that way," he added.
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Georgia's military operation was "an important initiative."
He said the United States was encouraging Russian and Georgian officials to work together to build a stable, peaceful relationship. "We just hope they can find ways to cooperate in the future," he told a news briefing in Washington.
Russia has become even more strident over rebels it says are sheltering in the Pankisi Gorge since a new wave of violence swept Chechnya, where it has been fighting rebels since 1994.
The rebels, Shevardnadze said, had been killed or had returned to Russia.
"These groups have been on Russian territory for practically a month without being noticed," he said.
Rebels poured into Ingushetia, across the border from Chechnya, Friday, sparking gun battles that killed 17 troops and brought down a helicopter gunship.
Shevardnadze, a key player in ending the Cold War as Soviet foreign minister, said Georgia would not allow rebels to filter back into the gorge and invited unarmed Russian observers to inspect the region for themselves.
NATO parliamentarian John Smith rejected Russian comparisons between Moscow's mooted intervention in Georgia and U.S. plans for military action against Iraq.
"(The Russians) are trying to draw a comparison between... preventive action against Iraq and the situation here in Georgia," the Briton said.
"There is no comparison. They are making a big mistake and it will result in the condemnation of the international community," he added. (Additional reporting by Margarita Antidze)
Other News of Interest
Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy September 29
Support a terrorist, lose your citizenship? September 29
US pressure on Pakistan not working: Vajpayee September 19
After Saddam: Fledgling states, oceans of oil September 29
Israel: Deif back at top of most wanted list after surviving IAF helicopter attack September 28
Joint force to patrol Herat, Kandahar highway September 28
Debka: CIA Undercover Unit in E. Iran September 27
Berlin ponders peacekeeping role in Iraq after US intervention September 27
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad September 25
US Aims to Reorder West Asia September 24
Pakistan Says India Planning pre-Emptive Strikes
Support a terrorist, lose your citizenship?
US pressure on Pakistan not working: Vajpayee
After Saddam: Fledgling states, oceans of oil
Israel: Deif back at top of most wanted list after surviving IAF helicopter attack September 28
Joint force to patrol Herat, Kandahar highway September 28
Debka: CIA Undercover Unit in E. Iran September 27
News of the Weird: Iraq not to give asylum to American September 27
Berlin ponders peacekeeping role in Iraq after US intervention September 27
News of the Mildly Weird: Pentagon Explores Use Of Chemicals September 27
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad September 25
US Aims to Reorder West Asia September 24
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad September 24
Today's update is by RK.
An article from Stratfor.com
Extracts of an article by Derrick Depledge of Gannett News Service
via The
Olympian
Extracts from a story in Pakistan's Daily
Jang
Extract of an article by Francesco Sisci in Hong Kong's Asia
Times
Israel: Deif back at top of most wanted list after surviving IAF helicopter attack
Joint force to patrol Herat, Kandahar highway
Debka: CIA Undercover Unit in E. Iran September 27
News of the Weird: Iraq not to give asylum to American September 27
Berlin ponders peacekeeping role in Iraq after US intervention September 27
News of the Mildly Weird: Pentagon Explores Use Of Chemicals September 27
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad September 25
US Aims to Reorder West Asia September 24
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad September 24
UN resists tough resolution
News of the Weird: Iraq not to give asylum to American
Berlin ponders peacekeeping role in Iraq after US intervention
News of the Mildly Weird: Pentagon Explores Use Of Chemicals
Focus on Gujarat, India September 26
VHP bandh begins, Army on standby September 26
Lack of funds saps NSG strength September 26
Flank Attack September 26
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad September 25
Nepal: Troops Kill 76 Maoist Rebels September 25
US Aims to Reorder West Asia September 24
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad September 24
Debka: CIA Undercover Unit in E. Iran
Debka.com
VHP bandh begins, Army on standby
Lack of funds saps NSG strength
Flank Attack
Iraqi Opposition Says Saddam Fortifies Baghdad September 25
French troops move to Ivory Coast battlezone September 25
Pakistan Arrests 2 Terror Suspects September 25
Nepal: Troops Kill 76 Maoist Rebels September 25
US Aims to Reorder West Asia September 24
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad September 24
French troops move to Ivory Coast battlezone
Pakistan Arrests 2 Terror Suspects
Nepal: Troops Kill 76 Maoist Rebels
US Aims to Reorder West Asia September 24
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad September 24
USA Today: Doubts On US Plan Aimed at Iraqi Commanders September 24
Saddam May Get First Strike in: Israel Is Prime Target September 23
Iraqi ambassador denies Saddam's exile September 22
An official in the Iraqi National Congress main opposition group, which claims to have operatives in Iraq, told Reuters 60,000 Republican Guards troops have dug in 19 miles around the Iraqi capital, focusing on entrances facing the Jordanian border and Kurdish controlled areas.
There was no independent confirmation of the troops deployment or reorganization.
"Republican Guards brigades are reporting independently and directly to Saddam now," the official said. "He has sacked commanders to gain even more control and minimize the risk of conspiracy."
President Abdel Salam Aref set up the Republican Guards after he seized power in 1963 and staffed it largely from his al-Jumayla tribe to be the elite unit of the regime.
Saddam further developed the Republican Guards into a Praetorian corps after the Baath party took government in 1968, giving the brigades names from Mesopotamian history, such as Hammurabi, the king who promulgated the first known legal code and Nabonassar, a conqueror of Palestine.
TROOP MOVEMENTS
The troop movements around Baghdad were the latest precaution taken by Saddam against a possible U.S. attack to remove him, exiled Iraqi generals say.
The United States says Saddam is rebuilding his chemical and biological weapons arsenal. Iraq has agreed to readmit arms inspectors without conditions but said it would reject a U.N. resolution sought by the United States on the issue if it did not conform to an agreement reached with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan last week.
The exiled Iraqi generals said there had been movement among Iraqi troops facing Sulaymaniyah, Arbil and Dahuk -- Kurdish cities in the north patrolled from the air by U.S. and British jets.
Kurdish leaders have denied that U.S. military advisers were in northern Iraq but the opposition forces under their control are likely to play a role if the United States attacks Iraq.
"Saddam is redeploying units he thinks are least loyal and vulnerable to approaches from the Kurds toward the interior. He is also moving troops all the time for strategic reasons -- to make them less susceptible to attack." the general said.
He said the most loyal Republican Guards units were inside Baghdad protecting vital installations and Saddam personally.
The Guards include an estimated 13 mechanized brigades, eight infantry brigades and five special forces brigades.
The Iraqi president has purged the army and security apparatus periodically and put his son Qusay in charge of the Republican Guards few years ago.
Saddam is now focusing on warding off a U.S. attack aimed at ending 34 years of his effective control of Iraq.
YAMOUSSOUKRO (Reuters) - French troops sent to help Westerners caught up in a bloody military uprising have set up camp on the road to Ivory Coast's second city of Bouake, where dozens of American children are among trapped foreigners.
Residents of Bouake heard heavy gunfire after nightfall, but were unsure if it was an exchange of fire between loyalists and renegade soldiers, whose rebellion has plunged the West African country into its worst crisis since independence in 1960.
"We don't know who is firing...the shooting is right outside the door," said one foreigner in hiding at his home.
The rebels said they had only been firing for fun, but that in Korhogo, another city they have held since pre-dawn attacks on Thursday, they had been attacked by a unit of the paramilitary gendarmerie.
"They regrouped after we pushed them out of the city and they are attacking us, but we have sent men to repel them," a rebel spokesman told Reuters by telephone.
Contacts by both sides with France, the former colonial power, earlier raised hopes of talks to defuse the crisis.
The renegade troops, who say they are protesting at being thrown out of the army, said they had sent a list of their demands to the French embassy on Monday.
A military source said the French were also in discussions with the government, which accuses the rebels of trying to seize power. "A process has begun between France and Ivory Coast to try to resolve the crisis," he said.
But the gunfire in Bouake after a quiet day terrified its population.
A 1999 coup destroyed Ivory Coast's stable reputation in a troubled region and hundreds died around turbulent 2000 elections in a country divided by ethnic bitterness.
But the latest turmoil, in which at least 270 are reported dead, is the first time it has been split between heavily armed factions or trembled near the brink of the kind of savage conflict that wrecked nearby Liberia and Sierra Leone.
The troubles have taken on a regional dimension with Ivorian accusations that rebel help came from abroad.
Burkina Faso, which Ivory Coast has accused in the past of harbouring dissident troops, shut its border on Monday.
Loyalist security forces have razed the homes of immigrants, mostly from Burkina Faso, in the latest turmoil. The presence of millions of immigrants in the world's biggest cocoa producer binds it closely to its neighbours.
DANGER TO REGION
"This country is central to the region and if it goes, the consequences will be awful," an African diplomat said.
"It is already becoming a regional crisis with the attacks on foreigners and if it goes that far, then I am not sure how it would be possible for anyone to rescue a whole region."
Among Westerners in Bouake were more than 100 American and other foreign children at a Christian school, where artillery and mortar fire came close late on Sunday.
As well as being the world's top cocoa grower, Ivory Coast is sub-Saharan Africa's third biggest economy, the engine of the French-backed West African CFA franc currency zone and a vital port for landlocked countries to the north.
About 200 French troops with armoured vehicles and backed by helicopters set up a forward camp early on Monday at the airport in the administrative capital Yamoussoukro, about 100 km (60 miles) south of Bouake and 250 km (150 miles) north of Abidjan.
"We are capable of intervening if our expatriates are in danger," Colonel Charles de Kersabiec told Reuters. "But none of our expatriates is particularly threatened."
Rebel soldiers called on Sunday for talks with President Laurent Gbagbo's government to avoid further bloodshed, while loyalist troops encircled Bouake.
[Meanwhile, 200 US Special Forces soldiers prepared to move into the Ivory Coast to assist in evacuating American nationals. US news media.]
The men - Saeed-ur-Rehman of Pakistan and an Afghan national named Juma Din - were arrested Sunday at a home after authorities received a tip that they were staying there, Pakistani law enforcement officials told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
Authorities seized documents, a computer and floppy disks at the home. The officials did not say what evidence led police to believe the men had al-Qaida links. They said the suspects were being interrogated by Pakistani police and FBI agents.
On Sunday, officials revealed that Pakistani security forces had arrested 10 men from Middle Eastern countries suspected of al-Qaida links as they tried to sneak across the border from neighboring Afghanistan in the past week.
In recent months, Pakistani and U.S. security forces have raided several suspected al-Qaida hide-outs, particularly in remote areas near the border with Afghanistan.
Pakistani and U.S. officials say hundreds, perhaps thousands, of al-Qaida and Taliban members have crossed into Pakistan after fleeing U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Pakistani security forces have arrested more than 400 suspected al-Qaida members during the months of raids.
Abu Zubaydah, possibly the third-ranking figure in al-Qaida, was shot and wounded on March 28 during a joint U.S.-Pakistani raid in the industrial city of Faisalabad. He is now in U.S. custody.
Earlier this month, Pakistani police in Karachi arrested Ramzi Binalshibh, one of the suspected planners of the Sept. 11 attacks.
Authorities in the southern port city have also been cracking down on a domestic Islamic militant group, Harkat ul-Mujahedeen Al-Almi, which is suspected of involvement in a June bombing outside the U.S. consulate, a suicide car bomb in May that killed 11 French engineers and aborted plots to assassinate Pakistan's president.
At least 23 members of the group - which came to prominence after Musharraf allied Pakistan with the United States in the war on terrorism - have been arrested in the past week. On Monday, a judge ordered three of the men held in police custody until at least Oct. 2 pending formal charges.
There was no way to independently confirm the security forces' report, and the rebels, who operate from remote areas, cannot normally be contacted and rarely comment on government claims.
Human rights groups have expressed concern about the high numbers of rebel casualties reported by the government, fearing some may be civilians caught in the cross fire.
Most of the casualties in Sunday's fighting were in the Rukum region, 250 miles west of the capital, Katmandu, where 55 rebels and one soldier died, said Shiv Kumar Thapa, spokesman for the Defense Ministry.
In neighboring Rolpa district, another 14 guerrillas were killed, while the remaining seven were killed in different parts of the kingdom.
Thapa said the drive was aimed at identifying and attacking the insurgents' bases. Some of those killed were instructors at rebel training camps.
In earlier clashes with the army, 39 rebels were killed on Friday and Saturday and another 11 died when explosives they were carrying went off accidentally, officials said.
The rebels have been fighting since 1996 to impose a communist rule based on the tenets of the Chinese revolutionary leader, Mao Zedong. They intensified their attacks after the government lifted a state of emergency last month to allow free campaigning ahead of the parliamentary elections in November.
The Maoist rebels have offered a cease-fire, but the government has rejected the move as a ploy by the insurgents to gain time to regroup.
Emergency rule was declared last year after the rebels abruptly ended peace talks with the government and resumed attacks on military and police. The emergency rule curbed civil liberties and gave security forces sweeping powers to detain people without trial.
US Aims to Reorder West Asia
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad
USA Today: Doubts On US Plan Aimed at Iraqi Commanders
Saddam May Get First Strike in: Israel Is Prime Target September 23
Washington Strangely Overt About Covert War September 22
Iraqi ambassador denies Saddam's exile September 22
Armitage says attempt on Musharraf's life thwarted September 21
Baghdad doesn't know the score September 19
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts? September 18
US Aims to Reorder West Asia
By C. Raja Mohan writing in the Hindu, a leading Indian daily.
In responding to the debate in the United Nations Security Council on the next
steps in the current crisis on Iraq, it will be easy for India to miss the wood
for the trees. The real issue is not the terms of coercive inspection of
Baghdad's strategic programmes. Nor is it only about "regime-change" in Iraq.
For the Bush administration, the ouster of Saddam Hussein is only the first step
toward a reordering in West Asia.
A historic decision, in favour of fundamental geopolitical change in West Asia
with all the attendant risks, appears to have already been made in Washington.
Referring to the arguments of the sceptics, who abound in the U.S. and
elsewhere, the point man for American strategy in the Gulf, the Vice-President,
Dick Cheney, dismissed the fears of an exploding rage among Arabs and Muslims
and a steep rise in oil prices in the wake of a war against Iraq.
Pointing to the benefits of regime change in Iraq, Mr. Cheney declared:
"Extremists in the region would have to rethink their strategy of `jehad'.
Moderates throughout the region would take heart. And our ability to advance the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process would be enhanced."
Within Iraq itself, Mr. Cheney said, "our goal would be an Iraq that has
territorial integrity, a government that is democratic and pluralistic, a nation
where the human rights of every ethnic and religious group are recognised and
protected.
In that troubled land all who seek justice, and dignity, and the chance to live
their own lives, can know they have a friend and ally in the United States of
America".
To put it simply, the Bush administration appears to have come to the conclusion
that further political tinkering to maintain status quo in the region will no
longer serve its interests. And that a drastic surgery of the region should
begin in Iraq. The installation of a secular, modernising and pro-Western regime
in Baghdad, the U.S. argues, would create the conditions for the long-delayed
political reform in the region which has become the source of much of the
extremism in the world.
In the short-term, Washington hopes that a pro-U.S. Iraq could become the
mainstay of American military presence in the region, reduce American energy and
security dependence on Saudi Arabia, which is looking increasingly vulnerable.
It will step up the pressure for internal change in the Arab world , encourage
the reformers in Iran and persuade the Palestinians to fall in line.
The U.S. has already decided to wage a war on Iraq. The United Nations is a mere
political convenience if it can be persuaded to go along. For Washington, a new
Security Council resolution on disarming Iraq is about tightening the
international legal noose around the regime of Saddam Hussein.
This precisely is why Baghdad has made a U-turn and agreed to let in the
international inspectors under the present resolutions to buy time and sharpen
the divisions within the Security Council. While Saddam Hussein has succeeded in
delaying the U.N. actions, he might not have averted it. For it should be borne
in mind that the arguments between the U.S. on the one hand and France and
Russia on the other in the Security Council is not about principles of
multilateralism. It is about the political price the U.S. is willing to pay for
support from Paris and Moscow and about the terms of post-Saddam arrangements in
Iraq.
With an eye on oil and other business in Iraq, France and Russia have over the
decades made strong investments in the political future of Saddam Hussein.
Washington is now threatening regime change. Paris and Moscow will naturally
bargain hard for protecting their interests in Iraq.
But France and Russia are also aware of the inevitability of regime-change in
Iraq and their own limits in restraining the U.S. When it comes to the crunch,
they would rather be on the inside shaping the post-Saddam arrangements in Iraq
than just protesting from the outside.
Over the next few days, the international focus will be on the United Nations
Security Council debate on Iraq. But the real action will be in the separate
diplomatic parleys between Washington, Moscow and Paris to find an agreed
formula on arranging post-Saddam Iraq.
If India does not see the radical geopolitical consequences of the American
intervention in Iraq, it will remain a bystander complaining about rising oil
prices and worrying about the safety of its own citizens in the Gulf.
While these are important concerns, the stakes of the American war in the Gulf
are far higher.
US Concerned About Casualties in Urban Fighting in Baghdad
CBS reports that US commanders are extremely concerned about the prospect of house-to-house fighting in Baghdad. Aside from the myriad potential public relations disasters, commanders are worried about casualties.
Baghdad is defended by three Republican Guard divisions, about 30,000 troops, and the 15,000 man Special Republic Guard. The article says casualties could run at 30% of the US force.
A US Marine Corps battalion-sized exercise saw 10% of the attackers killed, with medics unable to adequately care for the wounded.
The Marine Corps is working on new tactics, such as using a rifle squad and a single tank as a unit, and with units moving forward in no predetermined order.
While Orbat.com finds these figures interesting, it is far from clear that the sole option the US has is house-to-house fighting in Baghdad. It is also far from clear that Saddam's last troops will choose death rather than surrender with the rest of the country already lost. There is no particular rush to take Baghdad: a blockade calibrated to allow civilians to withdraw would simplify a final assault, though it might require weeks to be effective.
USA Today: Doubts On US Plan Aimed at Iraqi Commanders
Excerpts from a USA Today article of September 22, 2002, by John Diamond
WASHINGTON - Defense and intelligence officials are raising doubts about a classified Pentagon plan to persuade Iraqi commanders to hold back their most lethal weapons in the event of war with the United States.
Officials familiar with the psychological operations, or "psyops," plan say its aim is to persuade Iraqi weapons handlers to disobey any order Saddam Hussein issues to launch chemical or biological attacks in the face of a U.S. invasion. Methods would include hacking into Iraqi military computers, dropping leaflets on Iraqi military bases, jamming Iraqi radio and television and substituting signals sent by special U.S. broadcasting aircraft, and contacting key officers through clandestine intermediaries or even e-mail.
Bush administration officials tout the plan as a way of mitigating the risk of war with Iraq. Senior Pentagon and intelligence officials counter that Saddam's commanders would get their orders at the point of a gun. Disobedience, they argue, would amount to suicide.
One senior defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the psyops would have some value in persuading conventional Iraqi forces to surrender. Even so, the official said, the men in charge of Iraqi chemical or biological weapons and missile forces are likely Saddam's most loyal soldiers, who are motivated by fanaticism or fear, or both.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld argues that Iraqi military officers, faced with U.S. warnings that they could be treated as war criminals, might refuse orders to launch these weapons.
Secretary of State Colin Powell told lawmakers that the U.S. appeal to Iraqi military officers has already begun. These public statements are the visible part of a much more elaborate Pentagon plan to reach those Iraqi officers who have physical control over Saddam's alleged arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, and the few dozens of missiles that could deliver them to targets in the Middle East.
[We wonder if the US military is putting these reports out for some deception purpose or if its planners have nothing else to do. President Saddam Hussain and the Iraqis have previously shown no inclination for suicide. We reproduced a report some days back saying the Israelis themselves believed the Iraqi WMD threat is low. For Mr. Hussain to use these weapons against other Arab states would serve no purpose except to legitimize a US counter-strike using nuclear weapons. The simple situation is that no one in the Mideast seems to fear Iraq's WMDs, and delivery scenarios in any case seem to have been built on worst case assumptions. Editor]
Yemen Arrests Suspected Al Qaeda Members
India, not al-Qaeda behind bombings: Moin
Raid on rebel camp kills 200, Colombian military
says
Washington Strangely Overt About Covert War September 22
Al-Qaeda financier was ex-accountant of Saudi royals September 22
Iraqi ambassador denies Saddam's exile September 22
Armitage says attempt on Musharraf's life thwarted September 21
Russians to beef up presence in Chechnya September 21
Baghdad doesn't know the score September 19
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts? September 18
Via DEBKA
1. Nuclear, biological or chemical terror strike in a major American
city or closer to home against Israel.
2. Military or terrorist action against one of the Persian Gulf nations
that have made bases available to the United States, with Kuwait, Qatar
and Oman first in line.
3. A large-scale missile assault on Israel.
The threat of an Iraqi military strike increases the closer the Americans
come to launch-date for their overt war against Baghdad. Washington admitted
Saturday, September 21, that a detailed Pentagon plan containing the military
options for deposing Saddam had been delivered to the White House in early
September.
Friday, September 20, President George W. Bush, when he hosted
Russian defense and foreign ministers at the White House, opened the door
to a compromise on Moscow’s resistance to a new and tougher UN Security
Council on Iraq that spelt out the consequences for Iraq’s failure to disarm.
This was confirmed in the US president’s conversation with Vladimir Putin
at his Black Sea holiday resort. In any case, US counteraction by veto
is in the air. US Secretary of State Colin Powell warned Council members
that if they refuse to endorse the American resolution, Washington will
vote against sending UN arms inspectors to Iraq.
With telling timing, the Bush administration unveiled Friday, September
20, its national security strategy, a document that emphasized military
pre-emption as the prime means for maintaining America’s political and
military superiority against the newly-emerging threats.
Extracts of an article by Mohammad Sudam via Reuters
An article from Pakistan
News Service
Extracts of an Associated Press article via The
Miami Herald
Al-Qaeda financier was ex-accountant of Saudi royals
Minister Itoo escapes second attempt on life; Six
persons killed in separate incidents in J&K
Iraqi ambassador denies Saddam's exile
Rumsfeld to Israel: Don't retaliate to Iraqi attack
Armitage says attempt on Musharraf's life thwarted September 21
Russians to beef up presence in Chechnya September 21
Ivory Coast troops fight renegades for city September 21
Baghdad doesn't know the score September 19
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts? September 18
Ramzi Binalshib: A Comment September 18
An article from Stratfor.com
Extracts from a story in Pakistan's Daily
Jang
Extracts of an article from South
Asia Terrorism Portal
An article from Pakistan
News Service
MOSCOW, Sep 21 (PNS): Iraqi ambassador to Moscow firmly denied Friday
that Saddam Hussein was prepared to go into exile to avert a US-led strike
against his regime in Baghdad.
Extracts of an article by Janine Zacharia and Melissa Radler of the
Jerusalem
Post
Armitage says attempt on Musharraf's life thwarted
Russians to beef up presence in Chechnya
Ivory Coast troops fight renegades for city
Kashmir infiltration on rise, says US envoy
September 20
Super-7 fighter's maiden flight next year: Mushaf
September 20
UN Arms Inspectors in IraqMay Meet up with… US Troops September 20
Baghdad doesn't know the score September 19
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts? September 18
Ramzi Binalshib: A Comment September 18
Armitage says attempt on Musharraf's life thwarted
From Pakistan's Daily Jang
WASHINGTON: A top US diplomat said late on Thursday the Pakistani intelligence service had thwarted an attempt to kill President Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf himself has denied the attack.
US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage mentioned the plot during testimony before a joint House-Senate panel investigating the performance of US intelligence agencies ahead of the September 11 attacks.
Answering a question about the risk run by foreign leaders who have joined the United States campaign against terrorism, Armitage said: "Witness the fact that President Musharraf's intelligence service thwarted a bombing attempt on him yesterday." He did not elaborate. The Pakistani government, including Musharraf himself, has denied any new plot against him. "There is no threat to my life. God is great. He saves all," the president said on Thursday.
Pakistani security officials describe the men as "most wanted terrorists". They say one is suspected of masterminding a suicide bombing which killed 11 French engineers in May. Armitage's statement followed a report in Thursday's Washington Post that Pakistani police and intelligence officials had arrested an Islamic militant who was plotting to assassinate Musharraf.
Earlier on Thursday Pakistani Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider had denied local media reports that militants arrested on Wednesday had planned to attack Musharraf while he was at a defence exhibition in Karachi. Musharraf attended the exhibition on Monday night and on Tuesday. Moin said the militants had been involved in an earlier foiled plot to assassinate Musharraf in late April, as well as in a car bomb attack on the US consulate in Karachi in June that killed 12 people. "They are involved in the US consulate bombing for sure and they earlier had attempted -- not this time -- on the president's life," Moin told reporters.
Return To Top September 21, 2002
Russians to beef up presence in Chechnya
From Reuters
SAINT PETERSBURG: Russia will send another 1,200 elite troops to beef up its presence in war-torn Chechnya in November, Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov said on Friday.
Speaking in Russia's second city, Gryzlov said that the interior ministry is training six elite military units numbering 3,700 soldiers in total for the country's anti-terrorist fight, of which two would be deployed in Chechnya.
President Vladimir Putin vowed Tuesday to keep Russian troops stationed in Chechnya "for ever" in order to preserve peace in the separatist North Caucasus republic. Putin also dismissed suggestions that federal troops were preparing to pull out of Chechnya after three years of war. Russia had planned to withdraw most of its troops from the region within the coming months and hand over policing control to local authorities.
Federal troops stormed into separatist Chechnya in what Moscow termed an anti-terrorist operation, which has since turned into a brutal guerrilla war with daily casualties on both the rebel and federal side.
According to the latest official figures, some 80,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in Chechnya. But the military says it plans to reduce the permanent contingent to 22,000 troops, including 15,000 from the ministry of defence and 7,000 from the interior ministry.
Return To Top September 21, 2002
Ivory Coast troops fight renegades for city
From Reuters
BOUAKE, Ivory Coast: Rebel soldiers in Ivory Coast's second city of Bouake said they had beaten off an attack by loyalist forces on Friday as the government gave them a deadline to give up or face overwhelming force.
The sound of small arms and mortar fire died down in Bouake by mid-morning and a rebel commander warned any further assault on the city could lead to a bloodbath in the West African country, the world's top cocoa producer.
"We beat off the gendarmes who attacked us, but now we hear that the government is trying to get help from Angola to send an armed column against us," one commander told Reuters by telephone from Bouake.
Angola is a close ally of President Laurent Gbagbo, but an Angolan diplomat in Abidjan said Luanda had "neither the reason, nor the means" to intervene. Defence Minister Moise Lida Kouassi said on national television Ivory Coast had got the support of unspecified foreign friends. "Since this morning we put together all our logistic means and have got the support of friendly countries, so we are sure the town will be cleaned before nightfall," he said.
The rebel commander said the people of Bouake had rallied in the streets to support his men and what began as a protest over army retirements had passed into "the phase of a rebellion".
Disgruntled soldiers captured Bouake and the northern city of Korhogo early on Thursday in a well-coordinated attack the government said was plotted by former junta leader Robert Guei, who was shot dead by loyalist forces in Abidjan. Mortuary sources said Guei's wife Rose was also killed.
The worst strife to hit Ivory Coast since turbulent polls in 2000 revived fears the country riven by ethnic and political quarrels could tumble into the anarchy that has ruined nearby Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Emergency workers collected bodies from where they fell on the streets of Abidjan during fighting on Thursday. Military sources say dozens of soldiers, rebels and civilians were killed in gunbattles.
Lida Kouassi announced on state television that the rebels in Bouake had until 3 p.m. (1500 GMT) to give up or they would face an all out assault being prepared from Abidjan, 350 km (220 miles) to the south.
He said the rebels tried to negotiate earlier in the day, "but we refuse to negotiate while they are still armed". The rebel commander earlier said the time for discussing the return of the troops to the army was finished. "There will be no negotiations. If there is another assault on Bouake it will be met with full force and could become a bloodbath."
In Korhogo, the heartland of northern opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, people said some local youths appeared to have rallied to the rebel cause and roamed the streets in civilian dress carrying automatic weapons.
Gbagbo was on a visit to Rome when the plotters struck on Thursday. He cut short his visit, and his planned audience with the Pope was cancelled on Friday morning.
A source at Rome's Ciampino military airport said Gbagbo's plane set off at 1104 GMT on a flight to Abidjan expected to take about six hours.
Lida Kouassi said Ouattara was not a target of the Ivorian government. A French Foreign Ministry spokesman in Paris said he had taken refuge at the embassy of the former colonial power "with the full accord of the Ivorian authorities". Despite government assurances of calm, gunshots continued in parts of the commercial capital Abidjan on Friday. A night-time curfew has been declared across the country.
Return To Top September 21, 2002
September 20,
2002
Kashmir infiltration on rise, says US envoy
Super-7 fighter's maiden flight next year: Mushaf
UN Arms Inspectors in IraqMay Meet up with… US Troops
From Stratfor.com: Russia trades Iraq for Gerogia? September 19
Experts agree Israel has most to gain from Saddam ouster
Baghdad doesn't know the score September 19
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts? September 18
Ramzi Binalshib: A Comment September 18
Kashmir infiltration on rise, says US envoy
This story is from Pakistan's Daily Jang and not from an Indian newspaper as might be expected from its content. We don't think there is any significance to its appearance in a Pakistani paper except that a sub-editor goofed.
NEW DELHI: The infiltration of militants from Azad Kashmir to the Indian zone of the disputed territory has risen since August and Islamabad should put a stop to it, US Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill said on Thursday.
"Infiltration is certainly going on -- absolutely. Our judgment is it is up in August and up in September and we condemn it," Blackwill said in an interview to Star News and Aaj Tak television channels in New Delhi.
"Our view is that (Pakistani) President (Pervez) Musharraf gave a commitment to the international community to end cross-border infiltration permanently. And we expect him to meet that commitment."
Blackwill gave no explanation of why the infiltration may have increased, but mentioned it in answer to a question on whether Pakistan might be trying to disrupt the state elections in India's Jammu-Kashmir state. "This is a matter on which we are working very hard," Blackwill added.
Blackwill added that US President George W Bush told Musharraf at a September 12 meeting in New York "that cross-border infiltration should end". He said in the US view, "it is absolutely unacceptable that terrorism in any form is used as a political instrument, to try to affect the political decisions of ordinary people."
The US president, he added, had made this point repeatedly since the war on terrorism began more than a year ago. "In his view, a terrorist is a terrorist, is a terrorist." The ambassador said the United States hoped that successful elections in Kashmir would lead to the resumption of India-Pakistan dialogue. "We hope that if there is a positive electoral process in Jammu and Kashmir we hope that in a reasonable amount of period, India and Pakistan would resume their dialogue," he said.
The next round of voting, which includes occupied Kashmir's troubled summer capital Srinagar, is due on Tuesday. Twenty-seven pro-election activists have been killed in Kashmir since the poll dates' announcement, including the state's law minister, Mushtaq Ahmed Lone.
Blackwill termed the first round of polling as "positive", despite growing violence. "We think that the first round was positive. We salute these brave individuals who went out in the face of terrorist attacks, intimidation and coercion to exercise their democratic rights. I think that is very uplifting for any person who believes in democracy," he said.
Asked to comment on Musharraf terming the elections a "sham", Blackwill said the US did not think this was so. To a question on the "hue and cry" over allegations the Indian army had forced voters to polling booths, he said: "I think it might be, if I may say respectfully, somewhat an exaggeration that there's been a lot of hue and cry. "I've just seen the press reports of what the press describes as isolated incidents. I'm not aware of any hue and cry."
He stressed that a turnout of more than 47 percent was "remarkable" in a situation in which "terrorists strike, and are able to assassinate one minister and try to kill others." "We think that India's commitment to hold free and fair and inclusive, and as far as they can non-violent elections in [??? Cut off]
Super-7 fighter's maiden flight next year: Mushaf
Excerpts from an article in Pakistan's Daily Jang
KARACHI: The Super-7 fighter aircraft - result of the biggest-ever joint venture between Pakistan and China - will go through its first flight by June 2003 in China, said Air Chief Marshal Mushaf Ali Mir on Thursday.
He said that Pakistan had 50 per cent share in developing Super-7 with China as it bore US $75 million out of total cost of US $150 million. He said that since the PAF was denied F-16 fighter jets by the United States in 1988-89, Pakistan itself upgraded the aircraft and acquired high technology including radar and early warning system.
He elaborated that after receiving negative response from the Western world for technology, Pakistan in collaboration with China was developing Super-7 multi-role, multi-mission combat aircraft at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Kamra.
Mushaf looked optimistic as he said that they would replace the F-6s, A-5s and F-7s aircraft in the PAF fighter fleet. He informed that the PAF was also developing avionics system for Super-7 as under an agreement with China, up to 50 per cent of Super-7 aircraft will be produced in Pakistan.
When asked to compare the Pakistani and Indian air forces, he said that both the countries had increased their defence capability and excellence. "I would not say that Indian Air force has not been progressing as we have. Both the countries have increased their defence strengths and excellence," Mushaf said.
However, the air chief reiterated that Pakistan possessed the best strength for deterrence to keep the enemy away from any adventurism.
Regarding the accident ratio in PAF, he said that it was much less than India as the record of last two years showed that there were hardly two accidents in 10,000 flying hours. "That is the record of last two years, currently it has gone down further," he clarified.
Return To Top September 20, 2002
UN Arms Inspectors in Iraq May Meet up with… US Troops
From Debka.com, a different perspective on Mr. Saddam Hussain.
Iraq's offer to unconditionally re-admit the UN arms inspectors thrown out four years ago has forged cracks in the UN Security Council, but not deflected the Bush administration's determination to remove the regime the US president called "barbaric" when he addressed a fund-raiser in Nashville, Tennessee, Tuesday, September 17. Taunting the world body, he said: "It is time to decide if it is a united nations or a league of nations; a force for peace or a debating society."
In New York, meanwhile, US secretary of state Colin Powell and Russian foreign minister Igor Ivanov glared at each other across the circular Security Council table. Powell demanded a new resolution to lay out in full the conditions for the inspectors' return and force Iraq to comply with the promises it has broken in 11 years, or face the consequences; Ivanov dismissed the need for any more resolutions, urging the council to focus on getting the arms inspectors back into Iraq as soon as possible.
Moscow's posture means Washington will have a rough ride to UN endorsement of military action - and may not make it, throwing the president back on his earlier statement to the world body that, if necessary, America would go it alone. Some of the waverers were impressed enough then to begin to form up behind Washington. Saudi Arabia explicitly consented to the use of its bases for a UN-mandated attack on Baghdad, a notable gesture given that the Saudis spoke also for Egypt. France, the leading European waverer, might also have come aboard.However, Baghdad's "inspectors exercise" has yanked all three back, a calculated outcome, because Saddam is loath to lose them to the American side. For Saddam, it is not just a matter of blunting the American military threat, but a case of preparing his fences for when the Americans get him in a tight corner. He is saving those allies for that moment, counting on them to negotiate terms for extricating him and his family.
Notwithstanding the poor psychological profiles often painted for him, Saddam Hussein is above all a realist. He is also deeply influenced by Muslim military thinking which holds that, when a Muslim general runs into an unbroken wall of resistance that he cannot overcome, it is his duty to effect a tactical retreat. At the first crack in the wall, however, he is bound to resume his attack. This tenet explains why, after four years of fighting off the return of the arms inspectors tooth and nail, Saddam abruptly relented. He did so when he ran into the unbroken wall of the George Bush's determination. Meanwhile, he is wily enough to appreciate that the palaver over conditions for the arms inspectors to return to Iraq will give him time enough to hide his forbidden weapons and equipment - either in the country or across the border, until the heat dies down, possibly even to Iran. When the inspectors have finished their task or had enough, he will bring the equipment back and resume full production of weapons of mass destruction, just as he did the moment he saw the backs of the arms inspectors in 1998.
The Iraqi dictator has drawn what he believes are useful lessons from observing the ways the Bush administration carries out its objectives. The US president vowed to destroy Osama Bin Laden, al Qaeda and the Taliban. Bin Laden has dropped out of sight, removing himself like a good Muslim general from the range of a determined enemy, but al Qaeda and the Taliban are far from finished. In June, Bush declared the Palestinian people deserve a new leadership in place of Arafat and his cronies. Yet four months later, after the Israeli armed forces severely crippled the Palestinian terror infrastructure, Arafat and his henchmen continue to sit in state in his Ramallah government compound. Saddam therefore hopes against hope that he too will survive the mighty American war machine if he acts prudently.What he has succeeded in doing by his volte face on the UN arms inspectors is to throw in doubt UN endorsement for US military action. But even if the security council adopts the Russian view and sends the inspectors back, the Americans will almost certainly press ahead with the campaign they have begun. It is clear to Washington that the Russians, like the Saudis and French, are not seriously intent on holding the Americans back, but rather trying to get them over a barrel on the post-war share-out of the spoils of victory. The name of this game is oil.
So, while the haggling centers on the conditions under which an American offensive against Baghdad is permissible, no one lifts a finger, including Saddam, to stop US and British warplanes from destroying one by one Iraq's air force and air defenses command and control centers - an operation that DEBKAfile first began tracking in early August and which US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld confirmed on Monday September 16. The US-led air force is also systematically wiping out the command and communications centers of Iraq's missile units and its air fleet for delivering chemical and biological warfare materials.
These raids answer only one description: acts of war. The same term applies to the buildup of US, British, Turkish and Jordanian special forces in northern and western Iraq, and their advance up to the hills overlooking the two northern oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. The diplomatic fur may continue to fly, but so too will the military operations.
Return To Top September 20, 2002
September 19,
2002
From Stratfor.com: Russia trades Iraq for Gerogia?
Experts agree Israel has most to gain from Saddam ouster
Baghdad doesn't know the score
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts? September 18
Ramzi Binalshib: A Comment September 18
US eager to monitor all Pak entry, exit points September 17
US Reserves 20 Transatlantic Air Corridors September 16
British Army 'not ready' to fight in desert September 16
From Stratfor.com: Russia trades Iraq for Gerogia?
Stratfor.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Sept. 11 to send troops into Georgia's Pankisi Gorge unless Tbilisi deals with Islamic militants -- including alleged Chechen rebels -- within its borders, the BBC reports. On Sept. 12 Putin also warned the United Nations that Russia would take "necessary measures" to defend itself against cross-border Islamist attacks if Tbilisi cannot control the gorge.
The Bush administration, which until just a few days ago publicly supported Georgia against such Russian threats, recently said through statements by U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow that al Qaeda agents are operating not only in the Pankisi but also in Chechnya. Vershbow also met with Russian officials Sept. 12 for talks on anti-terrorism cooperation and Iraq.
It appears that the United States and Russia may be close to some form of an "Iraq-for-Georgia" deal. This likely means that Moscow will not veto an American attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council in exchange for U.S. acquiescence to a planned Russian operation in Georgia. It also suggests that one of the last obstacles for a U.S. war on Iraq is being removed and that Baghdad's fate soon will be sealed.
Return To Top September 19, 2002
Experts agree Israel has most to gain from Saddam ouster
Extracts from an article by Mathhew Gutman from the Jerusalem Post.
An American attack on Iraq would have sweeping regional implications for non-combatant Middle East states, with Israel the nation that has the most to gain from the ouster of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, according to panelists at a Bar-Ilan University seminar yesterday entitled "The Regional Implications of a US Attack on Iraq."
The US campaign against Iraq could just as easily consist of "a bullet in Saddam's head" or a weapons inspection regime with teeth, as a massive and costly ground invasion, according to Dr. Amin Tarzi, Radio Free Europe's regional analyst for Afghanistan and Iraq, and Prof. Ephraim Inbar, the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA).
"I don't think the US is ready for a large number of body bags," Tarzi said, referring to the loss of American lives an invasion could entail.
He said he believes the US will set a "minimalist goal," such as eliminating Saddam or putting him on the run not necessarily democracy-building in a "Saddam-less" Iraq.
Inbar said Israel has the most to gain from an Iraqi regime change, which could isolate Syria and Iran, and possibly push Syria from Lebanon and result in the disarmament of Hizbullah.
"The destruction of Saddam," could also weaken anti-US sentiment in the Arab world, Inbar said, taking issue with the view of Arab leaders, such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who warn that a strike on Iraq could ignite the "Arab street" and result in the overthrow of the Arab moderates.
Dr. Hillel Frisch, a senior researcher at BESA, minimized the threat of the "Arab street," saying it has not reared its head since the Iranian revolution in 1979. The one thing Arab leaders do well is hold onto power, he added.
Return To Top September 19, 2002
Baghdad doesn't know the score
Excerpts from an article by Fawaz Turki in the Arabnews.com published from Saudi Arabia.
Baghdad should show good faith and prove [Bush] wrong. Will it, instead, prevaricate by setting improbable conditions on the tasks of the inspectors, as had been its wont till 1998 (no inspection of the president's palaces, no inspection during business hours, and the like), thereby missing an opportunity to avert a devastating war waged against it? For keep in mind, neither the UN nor the US is in a mood to negotiate conditions here.
If the country does not possess "weapons of mass destruction," then it has nothing to fear from UN inspectors, whatever the tasks they are called upon to perform. If it does have them, the price it will pay for their removal will be miniscule compared to the one it will surely pay otherwise.
[The article now details diplomatic efforts by the UN, the US, and others to persuade Mr. Hussain to withdraw from Kuwait, all without avail.]
In this regard, consider this: In one of his many encounters with Tareq Aziz during the crisis, de Cuellar [the then UN Secretary General] quotes the Iraqi foreign minister as telling him dismissively: "The United States is foolish. Iraq recognizes American military superiority, but its planes could not win the war. Iraq is fighting on its own territory. It has one million men under arms and could double that number. Moreover, no political leader would be weakened by fighting against the United States. Egyptian President Gamal Nasser had lost a war but remained the most popular leader until his death."
Wrong, wrong, wrong. The Gulf War was not a popularity contest. The allied forces who set out to fight it, giving Iraq a six-month leeway to soberly consider the consequences of its actions, set out to fight it in earnest. They did. And the people of Iraq paid and continue to this day to pay the price of that folly.
So, we say it one more time, with feeling: If you don't have weapons of mass destruction, you have nothing to fear from UN inspectors - loss of face, if that's what the problem is - is a little price to pay. And if you do have them, elimination of the darn things is even a little price to pay in order to avoid the fire next time. And make no mistake about it - the US is bent on seeing them destroyed, by force of reason, through the UN, or by force of arms, through a lethal military assault.
Have Iraqi leaders over the last few months been trying to make a point as they had done on the eve of the Gulf War, and between 1991 and 1998? And if so, what would that point be?
At a time like this, making a point is a marginal pursuit, since, with war writ large, good points become even more ephemeral than bad ones. At a time like this, one acts to save one's hide - that is, one's citizens and one's nation from destruction.
Return To Top September 19, 2002
September 18,
2002
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts?
Ramzi Binalshib: A Comment
US eager to monitor all Pak entry, exit points September 17
Ramzi among five handed over to US, flown out of Pakistan September 17
Singapore arrests 21 suspected terrorist associates September 17
US Reserves 20 Transatlantic Air Corridors September 16
Firemen's strike treat to British military role in Iraq September 16
British Army 'not ready' to fight in desert September 16
US Special Forces to Raid Al-Qaida Yemen Hideouts?
The American Broadcasting Corporation reports that the United States has built up an 800 strong group of Special Forces in Djibouti in preparation for raids against Al-Qaida members in Yemen's Hadramat area. This is an eastern province said to experience minimum control from the central government; with its tribal society, rough terrain, and poor communications it is ideal for groups such as Al-Qaida.
The US forces include troops from Delta Force, 12 SOC helicopters, and a small CIA paramilitary contingent. The CIA is in charge of the operation, which will use the USS Belleau Wood now off Yemen as the support base.
ABC says that the Yemen government has not given permission for the raids, but the US is "negotiating". A big difficulty will be that the Al-Qaida operatives are constantly on the move. Presumably now that ABC has thoughtfully informed them the hunt is about to begin, they will move around more, and thus be more vulnerable to US searchers. We infer this because it cannot be a coincidence that "US intelligence sources" have chosen to tell ABC about what presumably would be a top secret operation.
Interestingly, ABC says the US troop presence in Djibouti is concealed inside a big French base.
From your editor's viewpoint, this intermeshing of the CIA and US Special Forces reminds of the unfortunate happenings when the two arms worked together in the SE Asian opium wars during Indochina II, and also reminds of the many questions that arose when the CIA first landed up in Afghanistan after the Soviet invasion. Admittedly, those were different days; we presume both arms have learned some means so not justify the end, and that inasmuch as it is possible for any clandestine operations to be clean, we presume this will be a clean war.
Return To Top September 18, 2002
Ramzi Binalshib: A Comment
Your editor has deliberately refrained from commenting on recent events in Karachi. There is no point in rubbing the Pakistanis faces in it; while many Pakistanis official and private do sympathize and further terror, the Pakistani people as a whole and their government have no use for terrorists. The level of cooperation given by Pakistan to the United States in this affair is superb; the Indians will say Pakistan had no choice. That may be as may be, but there is "cooperation" a la Austin Powers, and cooperation, and Pakistan has wholeheartedly cooperated, without the quotation marks.
Nonetheless, we hope the Pakistanis, Afghans et al are a little less sure that the United States is some great bumbling donut eating overweight cop on the beat, and that they can run rings around the Americans any time. Cunning and treachery may be the qualities people in the region master from age two, but what the Americans - and westerners in general we might add - lack in those skills they more than make up with solid, determined, unrelenting work. It was the Americans that found out where this particular cell lay; they have known apparently for months; but they moved in only now. The reason for that is not difficult to divine. The intelligence haul, we are told, is first-rate.
A Pakistani official, after the cell was arrested, condescendingly said that the men had best be interrogated in Pakistan because the Pakistanis were more efficient at this sort of thing. Your editor was mildly surprised. Beating a man till he gives you the story you want, and usually beating him to death when he doesn't, doesn't strike us at Orbat.com as particularly efficient. Nor does the time honored Indo-Pakistan police tactic of rounding up the family members to facilitate matters help much when dealing with Al-Qaida. To any family man, the news alone that his wife, mother, and daughter are being held in the women's wing of the jail is enough to break him, no matter how tough he is. But Al-Qaida men are not vulnerable to this kind of pressure.
The Americans have their ways: slower, to be sure, but much more effective. Your editor cannot claim any knowledge of what goes on today, but back in the good old days, disorientation and psychological pressures were quite efficient. The Americans are in no rush: Mr. Binalshib will remain in their custody for ever and a day; they will keep him healthy, and he is young.
The Al Jeezera correspondent who interviewed the Karachi cell may soon be headed for the Witness Protection program; on the other hand, he may not. Al Jeezera is not popular much in Washington, and nothing would give many Americans officials more pleasure than to leave him twisting in the wind. Nonetheless, one thing he said to the Washington Post on September 16th was fascinating. He said that the interview was to be aired only when he was told. When the time came, he was asked to come up with a million dollars. That came down to $17,000, eventually. He said these were not men that asked for money, leave alone bargained, and he thought they must be in very big trouble.
Return To Top September 18, 2002
September 17,
2002
US eager to monitor all Pak entry, exit points
Ramzi among five handed over to US, flown out of Pakistan
Singapore arrests 21 suspected terrorist associates
US Reserves 20 Transatlantic Air Corridors September 16
Let Kashmiri People Decide September 16
Foreign army leaves Congo diamond town September 16
Firemen's strike treat to British military role in Iraq September 16
British Army 'not ready' to fight in desert September 16
US eager to monitor all Pak entry, exit points
Extracts from a story in Pakistan's Daily Jang, written by Rauf Klasra.
ISLAMABAD:.US Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage in a letter to the Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider has disclosed that his country was receiving enhanced data of Pakistani and foreign nationals using country's international airports for travelling.
Armitage pointed out that his (Moin's) ministry still needs to do more to expand the range of US provided technology to all the 18 entry and exist, land and air, points of the country.
Sources said Armitage has also asked the interior minister to ensure complete and early installation of this modern technology through which US is currently getting information about every traveler coming or going out of the country.
The US government is installing a multi-million dollar project of "personnel identification secure comparison evaluation system (PISCES) at all the 18 entry and exist points of Pakistan to check the personal details of air passengers entering or going out of the country. So far the system has been installed at Karachi airport from where photos and other personal details of each passenger are obtained through this modern system and beamed out to the FBI headquarters in US for analysis.
According to diplomatic sources, Armitage asked the interior minister to complete the work before this summer to enable US agencies to keep probing each and every passenger coming and going out of the country.
[Armitage] said as a follow up action to his conversation [with the Pakistani minister], he would like to provide an update on the status of TIP/PISCES programme in Pakistan. He pointed out that the office of the counter terrorism in State Department has been working diligently to complete the preparation for deploying the TIP system at four air ports: Quetta, Islamabad, Lahore and Peshawar.
Sources said Mr Richard Armitage said the US is likely to send a team to complete these installations by October. He said the US had designated a team to upgrade the system already in place in Karachi. This team has already reached Karachi, he said.
The US deputy secretary said the TIP programme in Pakistan is the largest and most ambitious in the world and it will be first nationwide integrated system ever installed. He said the system was a pilot project and it was natural that there have been few difficulties along the way.
Ramzi among five handed over to US, flown out of Pakistan
Extracts from aq story in Pakistan's Daily Jang
KARACHI: Five al-Qaeda suspects were handed over to US authorities and flown out of Pakistan on Monday, two Pakistani officials said. One of the officials said alleged September 11 planner Ramzi bin al-Shibah was among the suspects.
The officials did not say where the suspects were being taken. However, the PTV later quoted "government sources" as saying that "five terrorists arrested in Karachi have been handed over to America," including "one of the main accused involved in the conspiracy to attack the World Trade Center."
"They are not in Pakistan now." Five others who were detained would also be leaving the country soon, an official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
US President George W Bush thanked Pakistan for its cooperation. At a fundraiser for Iowa Congressman Jim Nussle, Bush said: "We're making good progress," in the US hunt for al-Qaeda and other terror suspects.
Saying al-Shibah had wanted to be the 20th hijacker in the September 11, 2001 attacks on US targets, Bush said he wanted to "thank the Pakistani government for cooperating with US personnel to bring this person to justice". This guy's just another killer, and we got him."
News of the transfer appeared to take even top officials in Pakistan by surprise. Senior government spokesman Maj-Gen Rashid Qureshi said he had no immediate information about any prisoner transfer. Earlier on Monday, Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider had said that while Pakistan would hand over the suspects, "they have to be produced before a magistrate and if he is satisfied with legalities the extradition would take place."
Pakistani intelligence officials had been told to work "in accordance with guidelines they receive from the Americans," a Pakistani intelligence official had told AFP on Sunday. "These FBI officials are interrogating the suspects, according to their methods and even not allowing Pakistani intelligence to interfere. The Pakistanis are supposed to extract maximum information from the low-key suspects and convey it to the FBI men," the official said at the time.
Singapore arrests 21 suspected terrorist associates
From IRNA of Iran.
Singapore, Sept 17, Kyodo/OANA/IRNA -- Singapore has arrested another
21 people suspected of with a militant Islamic group linked to the
al-Qaida terrorist some of whom underwent military training at
al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan.
''As a result of the continuing investigation on the Jemaah
Islami (JI) network, the Internal Security Department has arrested
another persons ... for involvement in terrorism-related activities,''
says the statement issued by the government on the issue.
The statement said the 21, all Singapore citizens, were arrested
earlier in the month under the Internal Security Act, which allows for
indefinite arrest of suspected terrorists.
The latest arrests are in addition to 15 suspected Islamic
arrested in Singapore last December for allegedly plotting to bomb
the US Embassy and other strategic interest in the tiny island.
Malaysia has also arrested at least 60 suspects in a crackdown.
Both countries accused most of the detainees of belonging to the
Islamiyah, which aims to establish a pan-Islamic state in the
country.
The ministry's statement said 19 of the 21 arrested last month
or have been JI members, most of whom belong to or are linked to JI
cells,'' while the remaining two are linked to the Moro Islamic
party.
A few have undergone military training at al-Qaida camps in
Afghanistan or at the MILF's Camp Abu Bakar in the a Philippine
island.
The statement said several have conducted reconnaissance tours of
selected targets in Singapore on the instruction of their JI
ommanders.
''These latest arrests have seriously disrupted the JI
Singapore,'' the statement said. ''There is no known imminent result.
But it said that investigations are continuing to follow up on and
intelligence collected, and that the government would issue a
communique on the issue in near future.
September 16,
2002
US Reserves 20 Transatlantic Air Corridors
Let Kashmiri People Decide
Foreign army leaves Congo diamond town
Firemen's strike treat to British military role in Iraq
British Army 'not ready' to fight in desert
Vajpayee trashes Pak, taunts Musharraf September 15
Revolutionary thinking September 14
Russia runs out of patience with Georgia September 14
Backgrounder: Warfare tests new technology September 12
US Reserves 20 Transatlantic Air Corridors
Reader Gerry Hol writes:
I find this article highly significant. It appears to
me that the United States will in the coming days
begin a massive airlift operation of troops to Gulf
states much sooner than most people expected. It's
from the highly respected Agence France-Presse:
LISBON, Sept 14 (AFP) - The United States has reserved
a total of 20 air corridors across the Atlantic Ocean
in the past 24 hours, some of them with access to
Portugal's Lajes airbase on the Azores islands where
an US air force unit is stationed, the Portuguese
weekly Expresso reported Saturday.
Quoting air controllers in the Azores,
Expresso said that the United States normally only has
four corridors.
"There can only be one reason for this
step, the transport of large quantities of light
materiel that can only be transported by plane, as
well as military personnel, to the Gulf region," said
the weekly citing military experts.
Let Kashmiri People Decide
An editorial in the Los Angeles Times.
Your editor completely disagrees with this editorial. The LA Times has zero credibility on the issue because we don't see it advocating that Beijing permit election in Tibet to determine the will of the people, nor do we see it asking Beijing to accept the will of the Taiwanese people. We also don't see the LA Times calling for elections in Pakistan Kashmir, the Northern Areas, and asking under what laws did Pakistan cede parts of Kashmir to China without consulting the same Kashmiris the Indians are supposed to allow to vote freely. Moreover, we don't see the LA Times a defining what it means by Kashmir.
This said, Indians still need to see the LA Times editorial. It actually represents with fair accuracy what most informed Americans would say to their Indian friends. Your editor has a question of his government. How is it that you have so utterly failed to explain to the world what the Kashmir dispute is really about? There's no sense sputtering when editorials like these are written. It is for India to make its case, and lots of foreigners who are quite well-disposed to India don't think India has done this.
The LA Times Editorial
Mohammad Yasin Malik once advocated violent rebellion against India's rule of
the northern state of Kashmir, but after India jailed him for several years, he
emerged to advocate nonviolence. He is the kind of Kashmiri leader India should
seek to engage. Instead, the government arrested Malik for allegedly receiving
money from foreigners and jailed him under the terms of a law that can keep him
behind bars for months without trial.
As state elections in what is formally known as the state of Jammu and Kashmir
begin Monday, the government has failed to reach out to a coalition of two dozen
political organizations and discuss how to end 13 years of violence that has
killed tens of thousands.
Kashmir is India's only predominantly Muslim state and was the cause of two of
the three wars between India and Pakistan. Both claim the territory. Tensions in
Kashmir this year led the two countries to station a million troops along their
borders.
Eventually New Delhi and Islamabad will have to agree on the status of Kashmir,
but the starting point should be the wishes of the Kashmiris. Some want alliance
with Pakistan, others independence, others continued inclusion in India. But
governments in New Delhi have rigged balloting in the state for years to ensure
local legislatures amenable to New Delhi's wishes. They have pounded their
political anvil with a ferocious military hammer, using violence in the state at
every turn.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has let terrorists train on its land and slip into India on
murderous rampages. Washington pressured Pakistan into agreeing to stop those
forays, but extremists already in Kashmir continue to attack. Last week, they
killed a state government minister and several supporters at an election rally.
The main coalition of opposition political groups, of which Malik is a leader,
has vowed to boycott the elections, which continue into October. The coalition
insists that federal and state governments release jailed political leaders and
stop human rights abuses. Those reasonable demands have been rejected.
Separately, Muslim militants have murdered candidates who have defied orders not
to take part in the elections.
India should have encouraged full participation in free and fair elections,
rather than kept Malik and others in jail. Washington has a major stake in peace
between India and Pakistan and must keep the pressure on both sides to solve the
main sticking point: Kashmir.
Foreign army leaves Congo diamond town
Reader Gordon A. MacKinlay forwarded a BBC report written by Mark Dummett. Excerpts follow.
Zimbabwean troops defending Democratic Republic of Congo's diamond capital,
Mbuji Mayi, are due to return home on Friday.
A ceremony was held at the airport in the town to mark the imminent
departure of the soldiers, which was delayed by a shortage of aircraft.
Zimbabwe sent an estimated 12,000 men to fight alongside the Congolese army
in its four year struggle against rebels and their Rwandan and Ugandan
backers.
Following recent agreements between the DR Congo Government and both Rwanda
and Uganda, Zimbabwe decided that it could withdraw its troops without
threatening the government's security.
The Zimbabwean army has been the Congolese Government's most loyal and
important ally.
It was near here four years ago in the diamond fields surrounding Mbuji Mayi
that it showed just how important it was.
Without much help from their disorganised Congolese allies, the Zimbabweans
stopped and then held back the rapid advance of the rebel and Rwandan armies
which were then threatening to march unhindered all the way across Congo.
Zimbabwe made sure this did not happen, but since then has been accused of
profiting from its role in the war, not least from the lucrative industrial
diamond mines in this part of the country.
Firemen's strike treat to British military role in Iraq
This article by Michael Evans of the London Times was forwarded to us by reader Gordon A. MacKinlay. Excerpts follow.
by Michael Evans, Defence Editor
BRITAIN has offered the United States a "substantial" military force for a
war against Iraq, but defence sources yesterday gave warning of serious
complications if troops are required to protect Britain during a firemen's
strike.
Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, outlined the scale of Britain's likely
contribution to a coalition force when he met Donald Rumsfeld, the US
Defence Secretary, in Washington this week.
Defence sources in the American capital said that while the offer was
substantial, it was not as large as an armoured division.
Yet even with a medium-sized contribution from all three Services, the
personnel involved would be in the tens of thousands, and the added
commitment of fighting fires across the country could put unbearable
pressure on Britain's Armed Forces, one defence source said.
Under present contingency plans one key element of 16 Air Assault Brigade,
Britain's primary rapid deployment ground force and a likely candidate for
an Iraqi operation, has been earmarked for a firefighting role.
The 3rd Battalion The Parachute Regiment has been assigned to Essex if the
strike goes ahead. A total of 19,000 Service personnel have been allocated
firefighting jobs: 12,000 soldiers and 7,000 from the RAF and Royal Navy.
One military source said: "Our contribution for Iraq will depend on timing.
"If it coincides with a national firemen's strike, our offer to the
Americans could be very different."
Army 'not ready' to fight in desert
Reader Gordon A. MacKinlay forwards an article by Michael Smith of the Daily Telegraph. Excerpts follow.
There are also problems with the Army's main infantry weapon, the SA80
rifle, which despite a refit suffered repeated stoppages during Operation
Jacana in Afghanistan when dust blown up by the helicopters clogged its
working parts.
While any attack on Iraq is now certain to take place next year rather than
this, the apparent lack of urgency in getting the tanks and rifles ready for
war is "deeply disturbing", one source said.
It is also likely to suffer severe problems getting the tanks to Kuwait, an
operation that would take around 10 weeks even assuming no problems cropped
up.
The MoD allowed one of its three roll-on roll-off ferry charters to lapse,
with the result that the French snapped it up. That has forced the MoD to
look elsewhere on a very limited market for means of getting their tanks to
Kuwait.
September 15,
2002
Today's update is edited by RK, as was yesterday's.
Iraq rejects new US-UK pressure
Bush appeals to U.S. public for support on Iraq
Vajpayee trashes Pak, taunts Musharraf
Revolutionary thinking September 14
Russia runs out of patience with Georgia September 14
Australian SAS troops ready to leave for home September 13
Taliban hide behind civilians to target coalition troops: General Meyers September 13
Backgrounder: Warfare tests new technology September 12
An article from Pakistan
News Service
Extracts of article by Nicholas Watt, David Teather in New York and
Ian Traynor in Moscow via The
Guardian
Extracts of a Reuters article by Adam Entous via Pioneer
Press
Hussein before the Iraqi president builds a nuclear bomb, President
Bush on Saturday made his most direct appeal yet for public support for
disarming Baghdad with force if necessary.
Extracts of an article by CHIDANAND RAGHATTA of TIMES NEWS NETWORK
via the Times
of India
Extracts of an article from Jane's
Defense Weekly By Nick Cook with Kim Burger, Luke Hill, Ian Kemp, Andrew Koch and
Michael Sirak
Extracts of an article from Inter Press Service by Sergei Blagov via
Asia
Times
Extracts of an article by Janine Zacharia of the Jerusalem
Post
Article from The Egyptian daily al-Joumhoreyah via Arabic
News Iraq-Qatar
September 14,
2002
Revolutionary thinking
Russia runs out of patience with Georgia
Netanyahu: US must guarantee Israel's safety from
Iraqi attack
Al-Joumhoreyah:
Hussein threatens to destroy Qatar if Iraq is attacked from it
Saudi leader denies role in Sept 11 events September 13
Australian SAS troops ready to leave for home September 13
Taliban hide behind civilians to target coalition troops: General Meyers September 13
Mexico's Withdrawal From Defense Pact With U.S. Could Set Regional Precedent September 12
Backgrounder: Warfare tests new technology
Extracts of an article from Jane's
Defense Weekly By Nick Cook with Kim Burger, Luke Hill, Ian Kemp, Andrew Koch and
Michael Sirak
Extracts of an article from Inter Press Service by Sergei Blagov via
Asia
Times
Extracts of an article by Janine Zacharia of the Jerusalem
Post
Article from The Egyptian daily al-Joumhoreyah via Arabic
News Iraq-Qatar
Saudi leader denies role in Sept 11 events
Rocket attacks hit two Afghan cities
Australian SAS troops ready to leave for home
Taliban hide behind civilians to target coalition troops: General Meyers
DebkaFile Headline September 12
Mexico's Withdrawal From Defense Pact With U.S. Could Set Regional Precedent September 12
Backgrounder: Warfare tests new technology
Israel: Terrorism expert Meir Dagan named Mossad chief September 11
Saudi leader denies role in Sept 11 events
From the Frontier Post of Peshawar, Pakistan.
Prince Sultan, second deputy premier and Minister of Defence and Aviation of Saudi Arabia Wednesday said that the Kingdom accepts no responsibility for the September 11 attacks on the United States.The blame must be borne by individuals and not the state for the 'dramatic day' when thousands of 'innocents were killed', he said.
"If some Saudi nationals abandoned the teachings of Islam and their nationalism then they must bear the blame and not" the country, Prince Sultan said on the eve of the first anniversary of the attacks. They "had waged a war against their own country more than any other country and the whole world knows what they did in Saudi Arabia," the minister was quoted as saying by the Saudi Press Agency. "Some from these groups went (to Afghanistan) to fight communism...and became criminals, saboteurs and evil-doers, and that is the truth.
The Kingdom shelters no criminal or terrorist...because our religion and our nationalism prevent us from doing so. Islam rejects and condemns any criminal activity or terrorism, because they are against Islamic Shariah," Prince Sultan added.
Return To Top September 13, 2002
Rocket attacks hit two Afghan cities
From the Frontier Post of Peshawar, Pakistan.
Unidentified attackers fired rockets at two cities in eastern Afghanistan on Wednesday, Afghan officials said. There were no immediate reports of injuries.Two rockets exploded at dawn in an open field near an airport in the southeastern city of Khost, said Mohammad Khan Gorbuz, spokesman for the provincial governor.
Hours later, attackers fired three rockets at nearby Gardez from a mountain range, said Abdul Matin Husainkhil, a military commander based there. Hussainkhil said the rockets exploded near an Afghan military position.
Troops were deployed in the mountains to search for the attackers, but none were found, he said. U.S. special forces have bases in both towns and conduct regular operations with Afghan soldiers in search of suspected terrorists and senior Taliban leaders. Rockets, often fired two or three times a day and connected to crude timers, have been launched frequently toward both towns over the last several months.
They have rarely caused casualties. Gorbuz blamed loyalists of warlord Bacha Khan Zadran for the rocket attack on Khost, where his forces have battled soldiers allied to Gov. Hakim Taniwal since Sunday. Taniwal was appointed by President Hamid Karzai.
Up to 50 people have reportedly been killed and wounded in three days of fighting. Gorbuz put the casualty toll lower, saying at least five people were killed and 15 injured. As a result of the violence, Gorbuz said security in the city had been tightened and police were searching cars for explosives.
Troops loyal to Zadran were pushed out of the city Monday and made a stand Tuesday at Badam Bagh, about five miles to the west. But Gorbuz said Zadran's forces had now retreated completely and Taniwal loyalists had opened the main road that runs northwest from Khost to Gardez. Tensions between Zadran and Karzai's allies have been festering for months, prompting sporadic fighting. Khost province, which borders Pakistan, is one of the key fronts in the war against terrorism, and the United States has been working with both rivals in the hunt for al-Qaida and Taliban holdouts.
Return To Top September 13, 2002
Australian SAS troops ready to leave for home
From the Frontier Post of Peshawar, Pakistan.
Australian SAS soldiers plan to be home from Afghanistan by Christmas. But the regiment is preparing for a possible deployment to Iraq.Soldiers from the Perth-based Special Air Service Regiment will mark the first anniversary of the September 11 attacks Thursday with 6000 other coalition troops at the Bagram Air Base.
Their task of mopping up remnants of al-Qaeda forces is almost complete and, according to sources within the elite regiment, plans are well advanced to be out of Afghanistan by Christmas to work on "other things". Defence Minister Robert Hill has already signaled Australia would not refuse a request to fight in Iraq.
The SAS has so impressed US commanders with its ability to fill vital roles that the special forces experts would be the first cab off the rank in a war with Iraq.
Australian contingent commander Brigadier Gary Bornholt, who came to national prominence for his honesty during the children overboard scandal, said the key issue was judging when to pull out of Afghanistan. "There is still combat to be done here," he said. "How much more combat there is to be done that requires our special forces contribution is the judgment we have to make." He said the Government was ultimately responsible for the timing of a withdrawal. The last battle involving SAS soldiers was in May when a patrol was engaged in a fierce firefight.
Return To Top September 13, 2002
Taliban hide behind civilians to target coalition troops: General Meyers
From the Frontier Post of Peshawar, Pakistam
The chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General Richard Myers, says it is "not an unusual tactic" for enemies to hide behind civilians and intentionally fire on US and coalition forces."They have hidden behind civilians before. And they will do it in the future," Myers told the ABC-TV interview program, "This Week." He was responding to a question about an incident in Afghanistan in July when members of an Afghan wedding party were killed after coalition aircraft responded to apparently hostile fire.
Myers said a follow-up investigation showed that the aircraft were intentionally fired upon. There are coalition and Afghan eye witness accounts to the hostile fire from both the ground and air, he said. He termed it very unfortunate that innocents were killed when coalition forces returned fire on July 1.
The US Central Command - headquartered at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida - recently posted to its Web site a summary statement of its report on the events that occurred this summer during "Operation Full Throttle." The contents of the report were addressed in a September 7 New York Times article about the events which occurred at several compounds in the Oruzgan Province. The executive summary states that "great care was taken to strike only those sites that were actively firing" against coalition forces.
While expressing regret for the loss of innocent lives, the summary also states: "the responsibility for the loss rests with those that knowingly directed hostile fire at coalition forces." The summary also says that the operators of the hostile weapons - including anti-aircraft guns - "elected to place them in civilian communities and elected to fire them at coalition forces at a time when they knew there were a significant number of civilians present." It was not possible for the crew of the AC-130 gunship, which returned fire, "to distinguish men from women or adults from children," it said.
Coalition forces were able to confirm 34 deaths, and 50 wounded. The Afghan government estimate was higher: 48 dead and 117 wounded.
Return To Top September 13, 2002
DebkaFile Headline
Mexico's Withdrawal From Defense Pact With U.S. Could Set Regional Precedent
Backgrounder: Warfare tests new technology
Israel: Terrorism expert Meir Dagan named Mossad chief September 11
Indian RAW sleuths active to get hold of region September 11
Nepal: At least 267 Maoists killed in Argakanchi September 11
Top Osama aides 'surface in Karachi' September 10
Bin Laden finally claims 9/11 attacks: Al-Jazeera September 10
DebkaFile Headline
From DebkaFile
In First Such Incident,
Liberian Freighter "Palermo Senator" Was Ordered out of Newark Port NJ Wednesday after Radiation Traces Detected in Hold. Ship Under German-Korean Ownership Reached US from Far East Via European Ports.
[Editor's Note: In its public section, DebkaFile gives headlines every day and also writes up stories in depth. These stories generally number 3-5 a week. The headlines may or may not later feature as a story.]
Mexico's Withdrawal From Defense Pact With U.S. Could Set Regional Precedent
The government of Mexico announced Sept. 6 its decision to withdraw from the Inter-American Reciprocal Assistance Treaty (TIAR), the hemispheric mutual defense pact signed in 1947 by the member countries of the Organization of American States (OAS). Under the TIAR's statutes, Mexico's withdrawal will become official on Sept. 6, 2004.
The TIAR, also called the Rio Treaty because it was signed in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro, defends the principle of non-interventionism in the internal affairs of the region's democracies and proclaims regional solidarity for any member attacked from abroad. When it was signed 55 years ago, the perceived enemy was the former Soviet Union. The treaty has been invoked at least 20 times since 1947, most recently at Brazil's request after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.
Mexican President Vicente Fox planned to announce Mexico's withdrawal from the TIAR a year ago. During a speech at OAS headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 7, 2001, Fox described the pact as a "Cold War relic" that was inadequate for the new internal and external security threats confronting Latin America in the 21st century. In Mexico's view, these new threats are social and economic rather than military.
Return To Top September 12, 2002
Backgrounder: Warfare tests new technology
This article by Mike Toner from the Atlanta Journal and Constitution is reproduced from our friends Globalsecurity.org headed by Mr. John Pike.
Real wars have always tested the potential, and underscored the limitations, of new weapons --- from the hot air balloons used to observe enemy positions during the Civil War to bunker-busting bombs that debuted in Iraq.
In the Afghan conflict, dramatic performances by two high-tech stars of Operation Enduring Freedom --- "smart bombs" and remotely piloted aircraft --- appear to assure they will both play even bigger roles in the next war.
The fighting in Afghanistan highlighted some of the weapons' limitations as well, but that isn't stopping the Pentagon from spending nearly $2 billion in the coming year to acquire more of both. Precision weapons and unmanned aircraft fit nicely into the Defense Department's planned five-year, $144 billion transformation --- a series of steps to make the military more agile, versatile, and technologically advanced.
"The capabilities demonstrated in Afghanistan show how far we have come in the 10 years since the Persian Gulf War," Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told Congress recently. "But they are just a glimpse of how far we can go." Coming of age A variety of specialized bombs saw action in Afghanistan, including the 15,000-pound "Daisy Cutter," which can incinerate everything within six city blocks, and fuse-activated cluster bombs, which can scatter hundreds of bomblets over several acres.
But this was the war in which smart bombs came of age. Smart bombs, guided from afar to their targets by lasers or satellite signals, are credited for the devastating effectiveness of American air strikes on Taliban and al-Qaida positions, and for minimal losses to U.S. pilots, who can release the bombs out of harm's way.
More than 60 percent of the 13,000 bombs dropped in Afghanistan were smart weapons. During the Gulf War, precision munitions made up only 3 percent of the total.
The next war is certain to see even wider use of such guided bombs. Employees at the Boeing Co.'s missile plant in St. Louis, which makes $25,000 bolt-on guidance kits that convert ordinary bombs to precision Joint Direct Attack Munitions, are now working around-the-clock to replenish U.S. stocks of the weapons.
The Defense Department wants JDAM production doubled from current levels by next year. The goal is a stockpile of 40,000 to 50,000 smart-bomb kits that can be quickly rushed into action.
The success of precision bombs was at least partly responsible for the Pentagon's decision this year to scrap the Army's $11 billion Crusader artillery program, a fleet of self-propelled howitzers designed to lob shells at targets 30 miles away. Smart bombs, the Pentagon decided, could do the job better.
Military officials maintain that the Afghan bombing inflicted less collateral damage for its size than any other air war in history.
A short list of known mishaps, however, clearly shows that even the smartest smart bombs are not infallible: Four Canadian soldiers were killed and eight wounded when an F-16 pilot dropped a laser-guided bomb prematurely. Four Afghans were killed and eight wounded when a JDAM bomb hit a residential area in Kabul instead of a helicopter a mile away. Forty-eight civilians, including 25 at a wedding party, were killed in an air raid in Uruzgan province.
"These are human-made, human-designed systems," Rear Adm. John Stufflebeam explained after one incident. "They're going to have flaws."
Not all of the flaws are mechanical. Last December, Hamid Karzai, now the Afghan president, was among those slightly wounded when a 2,000-pound smart bomb dropped by a B-52 landed near an American position by mistake. Three American soldiers were killed and 25 injured. An investigation blamed the mishap on "flat-out human error, putting the wrong coordinates in the wrong place."
The Pentagon has not issued a detailed accounting of the collateral damage from U.S. air strikes. Estimates of civilian deaths from bombing --- by news and human rights organizations --- vary widely, from around 800 to more than 3,500. One U.S. policy institute, the Project on Defense Alternatives, contends that the rate of civilian casualties in Afghanistan was four times greater than it was during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.
"It's clear that smart weapons work pretty well, but they don't work all the time," says analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-area-based military watchdog organization. "In some cases, it appears that the precision of the weapon has outstripped the precision of the targeting."
The military's reliance on precision weapons has also drawn a rebuke from the Army's own Center for Lessons Learned. The center says that a lack of conventional artillery in Operation Anaconda, the largest U.S. ground action of the war, left troops unnecessarily vulnerable to enemy fire.
Hot new trend
For the same reason it likes smart bombs --- the ability to keep U.S. personnel delivering them out of danger --- the Pentagon is also embracing the hottest trend in military aviation: remotely piloted aircraft known as UAVs, for unmanned aerial vehicles.
UAVs can be flown from a control room hundreds of miles away. They can also loiter unobtrusively, taking pictures or gathering other information for up to 24 hours at a time. And they cost less than manned planes.
Next year's defense budget includes $1.1 billion to expand the military's fleet of drones, adding 37 new unmanned aircraft and accelerating development of more advanced craft. Some unmanned spy planes have already been sent to the Philippines to aid in the pursuit of terrorist groups there. The Coast Guard plans to start using them in the United States as well.
Despite the enthusiasm, the robot aircrafts' performance so far has been less than an unqualified success. Both of the Air Force's operational Global Hawk reconnaissance drones, rushed to Afghanistan late last year, crashed. The most recent loss, over Pakistan in July, was blamed on engine failure.
The smaller and more numerous Predator UAVs have had problems in Afghanistan as well. At least six of the $3 million planes have been lost in the last year, some due to lapses of control and some due to icing on the wings.
Although Predators weren't designed to carry weapons, a few have been equipped to fire 5-foot Hellfire missiles at targets they spot with their on-board cameras. The results have been decidedly mixed.
Early in the war, a missile-equipped CIA Predator was dispatched to help protect rebel leader Abdul Haq when he was intercepted on a clandestine mission in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The missile didn't deter Haq's assailants, and he was eventually killed.
In February, a CIA Predator killed three suspected al-Qaida leaders in eastern Afghanistan, including one tall individual some claimed might be Osama bin Laden. It wasn't. The three victims have never been identified.
In May, another CIA Predator fired a missile at rebel leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in an effort to eliminate a key opponent of the central government. The missile missed its target but killed some of Hekmatyar's followers.
'It's like early 1914'
The mixed results have not dampened enthusiasm for the future of pilotless aircraft --- or the belief that it will improve rapidly.
"UAV technology is still in its infancy, but it is evolving rapidly," says Chris Hellman, a senior analyst for the Center for Defense Information. "It's like early 1914, when we first recognized the importance of aerial reconnaissance. By the end of 1914, airplanes on both sides were shooting at each other."
Shooting is exactly what the Pentagon has in mind as it develops unmanned aerial combat vehicles, or UCAVs, remotely piloted craft that can fire missiles, drop bombs and, someday, even engaged in aerial dogfights.
In April, Boeing conducted initial flight tests of the X-45, the first pilotless plane designed to carry weapons into combat. The Y-shaped drone, expected to be ready for action by 2008, is expected to be able to "hunt in packs," with a single pilot controlling up to four of the craft. It's being designed to carry up to 3,000 pounds of guided bombs.
A new unmanned helicopter, the Hummingbird, designed to be able to stay airborne for up to 40 hours, also made its first test flight this year. Possibilities for the future include drones with stealth technology, like that now used in manned aircraft, and palm-sized "microfliers" that could be flown like model airplanes.
As pilotless aircraft grow more sophisticated, however, they are also growing more vulnerable to escalating costs. The Air Force, which wants a fleet of 51 unmanned Global Hawks, was shocked to discover that the price of the planes has jumped from $15 million each to $75 million, a cost officials warned could ultimately doom the aircraft.
Return To Top September 12, 2002
September 11, 2002
Israel: Terrorism expert Meir Dagan named Mossad chief
Indian RAW sleuths active to get hold of region
Nepal: At least 267 Maoists killed in Argakanchi
Top Osama aides 'surface in Karachi' September 10
Bin Laden finally claims 9/11 attacks: Al-Jazeera September 10
Another clash between Nepal security forces, Maoists September 10
US-UK Air Might Knocks out Iraq's Air Force-Air Defense Front Lines September 9
Terrorism expert Meir Dagan named Mossad chief, critics call it political appointment
Extracts from a story by David Rudge in the Jerusalem Post.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon yesterday appointed long-time confidant and anti-terrorism expert Maj.-Gen. (res) Meir Dagan the new head of the Mossad.
In what some viewed as a controversial move, Dagan is to replace Ephraim Halevy, who has been appointed to head the National Security Council in place of Maj.-Gen. (res) Uzi Dayan, who retired from the post last week.
Halevy, who headed the Mossad for the past four years, was considered the quintessence of the unobtrusive master spy, likened to the George Smiley character created by author John Le Carre.
Dagan, on the other hand, won his spurs on the battlefield. In the early 1970s, as a young officer, he distinguished himself by combating terrorism in the Gaza Strip under the command of Sharon, then OC Southern Command. Dagan also served under Sharon in the 143 Division in the Yom Kippur War. Dagan, 55, was wounded twice in action during his 32 years of army service and received citations for bravery.
Although his appointment was reportedly supported by Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and other ministers, it is likely to run into opposition from left-wingers opposed in principle to political appointments.
Labor Party secretary-general Ophir Pines-Paz and Meretz leader Yossi Sarid slammed it.
"Sharon's decision to appoint Dagan to head the Mossad breaks all the rules of the game and is a dangerous precedent," Pines-Paz said. "Dagan is clearly a Likud man who is deeply entrenched in political life and was active in Sharon's campaign team. Even if he is skilled, appointing a political man to head the Mossad is a severe blow to such an independent, apolitical organization."
Sources close to Sharon called the attacks cheap political posturing.
Those who support Dagan ascribe to him all the attributes suited for head of the Mossad. His opponents, however, maintain he has a somewhat cavalier attitude and sometimes aspires to the adage that any means justify the ends.
Channel 2 reported that the appointment is likely to be the subject of petitions to the High Court of Justice.
Return To Top September 11, 2002
RAW sleuths active to get hold of region
From the Frontier Post of Pakistan.
[Editor's note: RAW stands for India's research and Analysis Wing, the closest India has to a foreign intelligence organization.]
Diplomatic sources from a central Asian state revealed that a ten member Indian delegation comprising representatives from RAW, Indian Army and Interior Ministry reached Kulyab (Tajikistan) on August 13, 2002. The delegation after their arrival prepared a feasibility report for establishing a training centre and a RAW set up at Kulyab (Tajikistan).
Establishing RAW operations in Tajikistan is a part of the Indian plans to tighten their hold around Afghanistan and use it as a base to gradually spread its influence in Central Asian States, having an eye on their economic, political and strategic resources. Despite lack of contiguity with Afghanistan, India had been striving for an hegemonic presence in that country.
Initially, the motive was to maintain effective ingress into their administrative hierarchy as also to use Afghanistan for sabotage and subversion in Pakistan. Indians were successful in doing so until the Russians withdrew from Afghanistan. With the retreat of the Soviets, Indian influence- also came to a naught. However, they actively collaborated with the non-Pahktoon segments of Afghan polity to regain their hold.
Seizing the opportunity emanating from post-9/11 scenario, Indians offered all out support to the international coalition for its fight against terrorism. However, the coalition preferred Pakistan's help to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan. In spite of this rebuff, the Indians continued their endeavours and were ultimately able to find a foothold under the pretext of aid, relief, reconstruction work etc. Soon they established their Embassy, dispatched RAW men under the cover of relief workers, offered training facilities and cooperation in various fields, especially Police, Judiciary, Foreign Affairs, with the main objective to penetrate and consolidate their hold on and around the persons and the departments which mattered in decision-making.
Meanwhile L K Advani, the ambitious and hawkish personality of the Indian politics was able to over shadow Prime Minister Vajpai and maneuver his elevation as Deputy Prime Minister in addition to the charge of home ministry. LK Advani being the god-father of the ideology of Hindutwa, all his thoughts and actions are focused on revival of the glory of Ashoka times and build up a Hindu Empire from Afghanistan to Indonesia-hence RAW activation in Afghanistan in full-swing these days.
Besides enlarging the scope of Hindutwa, RAW has been assigned the task to bring Afghanistan under complete subservience with a view to exploiting political, economic and strategic potentials of not only Afghanistan but also of the Central Asian States. In order to achieve this aim, the Indian Embassy and Consulates have been overwhelmingly staffed with RAW operatives. Kabul, Jalalabad, Kandhar, Herat and Mazar-e-sharif have been transformed into full-fledged RAW stations. Side by side, India has also established a RAW base in Tajikistan.
With its operatives at all important places, RAW has started buying the loyalties of locals for sabotage activities as well as manipulating the shifting of Pakistanis from Afghan jails to India for subsequent exploitation of their "confessions" regarding alleged sabotage activities in Indian Held Kashmir and India. Besides being hostile to Pakistan, RAW personnel in Afghanistan have been unkind to their hosts as well.
In order to perpetuate instability, they have started exploiting and subtly fanning the regional, racial and linguistic differences among various tribes and other segments of society. The prevailing uncertainty, restlessness, bickering and infighting are rightly attributed to the RAW machinations.
The Pahktoon tribal are the main target of RAW-in order to create a wedge between them and the Coalition Forces, RAW has started working hand in glove with the Afghan Intelligence RAM Riasat-e-Amniat-e-Milli), especially in South Eastern Afghanistan bordering Pakistan. Pamphlets and handbills are being distributed in Paktiya province and other areas, in the name of Talban, Al-Qaida and Hazb-e-Islami (Hikmat Yar group) asking the people to wage Jehad against the Americans in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile Ismail Khan Zazi a Pushtoon Commander has viewed these activities as a conspiracy to weaken Pushtoons and an attempt to provoke US and Coalition Forces to resort to air strikes against them. He has accordingly advised the Pushtoon people to be careful and not swept away by such propaganda and subversive material. With RAW's extensive presence and their unbridled operations in Afghanistan, the wish for Afghanistan's unity and stability will remain unfulfilled.
Likewise with their latest entry into Tajikistan, similar situation is expected to develop in Central Asian States in not too distant a future.
Return To Top September 11, 2002
Nepal: At least 267 Maoists killed in Argakanchi
Extracted from Nepalnews.com
Security forces killed at least 267 Maoists at Argakanchi district Monday night in the fiercest clash with rebels since February this year, the Defence Ministry said Tuesday night.
"After a search around Sandhikarkha, 17 buried bodies have been recovered and about 150 bodies have been buried by a river bank west of the district,' the Ministry said.
Altogether 21 bodies have been recovered from the river beds with the recovery for three more bodies, fresh reports said. Locals were cremating the abandoned bodies after digging them up from the river banks, local reports said.
Surviving rebels fled with more bodies of the dead and injured in vehicles and bamboo baskets according to eyewitnesses, the Ministry said.
The army killed 13 insurgents and injured dozens in hot pursuit and blocking operations at Hansapur north of Sandhikarkha in Argakanchi district Monday, officials said. One soldier died and two others were injured in the operation.
Reinforcements were air-dropped to relieve trapped soldiers. The rebels decamped with Rs.90 million in cash and jewelry looted from the Rashtriya Banijya Bank in Sandhikarkha Monday, officials said
Tuesday.
Forty-six policemen and a prisoner were among the 77 released by rebels in Argakanchi Tuesday, an official source said. Border guards have stepped patrolling along the Indo-Nepal border in the area to stop the flight of injured rebels to India, reports from the border said.
Return To Top September 11, 2002
September 10, 2002
Top Osama aides 'surface in Karachi'
Bin Laden finally claims 9/11 attacks: Al-Jazeera
Another clash between Nepal security forces, Maoists
US-UK Air Might Knocks out Iraq's Air Force-Air Defense Front Lines September 9
Ex-Inspector Doubts Iraq Capability September 9
15 dead as warlord, Government forces clash in Khost September 9
Tribesmen protest against search for al-Qaeda September 9
Top Osama aides 'surface in Karachi'
Extract from a story by By Anwar Iqbal from Pakistan's Dawn of Karachi.
WASHINGTON, Sept 8: Al Qaeda has established a formidable network in Karachi where top aides of Osama bin Laden have been hiding since the collapse of the Taliban regime last year, says an Arab journalist.
Yosri Fouda, who said he had met some top Al Qaeda operatives in Karachi earlier this month, told an American news agency that the group has many hiding places in the city.
In an interview to United Press International in London, Mr Fouda claimed that Al Qaeda had chosen him to deliver a message to the world on the first anniversary of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks and taken him to Karachi from London. Mr Fouda works at the London bureau of the al Jazeera TV which has aired many exclusive interviews with Al Qaeda leaders, including Osama.
The interview - part of which was shown by al Jazeera last week and has since been repeated by CNN, BBC and other international channels - is considered a major journalistic coup. The second part is expected to be telecast this week.
[Editor's note: Like all of us, journalists can be unintentionally hilarious, and Mr. Iqbal really makes his mark with the concluding paragraph to this story. He wonders that if he could find these senior Al Qaeda officers, why can't western intelligence? It doesn't occur to him, though his narrative makes it quite clear, that he didn't find anyone, they found him. And its safe to assume that Al Qaeda has little interest in inviting western intelligence for interviews.]
Return To Top September 10, 2002
Bin Laden finally claims 9/11 attacks: Al-Jazeera
Extract from a story in the Arab News of Saudi Arabia.
DOHA, 10 September - Suspected terror mastermind Osama Bin Laden was heard claiming responsibility for the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States in video clips aired by Qatar's Al-Jazeera satellite television yesterday. Al-Jazeera also broadcast footage of militants which it said were among those Al-Qaeda members who carried out the 9/ 11 attacks.
The video showed them pouring over flying manuals and aerial maps of the Pentagon, one of the group's targets along with New York's World Trade Center.
The militants were filmed in the Afghan city of Kandahar "a few months" before heading to the United States to carry out the attacks that left about 3,000 dead, the station said.
Meanwhile, over still photos of the hijackers, Bin Laden's voice was heard naming some of the attackers in the Sept. 11 strikes, including Egyptian Muhammad Atta who he said "led the group which destroyed the first tower" of the World Trade Center.
Return To Top September 10, 2002
Another clash between Nepal security forces, Maoists
From Nepalnews.com
Security forces and Maoists Monday afternoon exchanged gun fire at Hansapur north of Sandhikarkha where Maoists staged a daring attack overnight killing at least 59 security personnel and injured many
others, local security forces in Pokhara said.
Rebels were attempting to retreat to the dense forests of the neighbouring districts of Pyuthan and Baglung from district headquarters of Argakanchi where they struck Sunday night. Heavy army and police reinforcements have been dropped to Hansapur by helicopter Monday, security forces in Pokhara said.
.
Fleeing rebels took hostage deputy chief district officer Baburam Khatiwada and two policemen Rameshwor Khadka and Dambar Tamang in Sandhikarkha, the Defence Ministry said. Rebels also shot dead a civilian in Argakanchi.
The Defence Ministry said rebels killed 57 policemen and soldiers in the attack on Sandhikarkha while police said 59 security security personnel were killed and many others were injured. Final casualty figures could be higher.
Maoists shot a helicopter ferrying security personnel from Pokhara to Sandkiharkha Monday; the chopper made an emergency landing at Tamagash in neighbouring Gulmi district and took off after minor repairs, sources close to the Home Ministry said.
The rebel attack on Argakanchi is the biggest on army and police installations after rebels killed 56 soldiers and 76 policemen in Mangalsen and Saphebagar in Achham on February 16 and comes 24
hours after an assault in Sindhulil where 49 policemen were killed and 21 others were injured.
Insurgents bombed and torched the district administration office, the residence of the chief district officer, the district police office, district forest office, the district court, the district development committee office and other government buildings in Sanphebagar, the Defence Ministry said Monday.
The rebels also destroyed project offices, a telephone repeater station and destroyed government and other vehicles, the Ministry said.
The attack on Argakanchi comes on the eve of a leadership change at Royal Nepal Headquarters where Gen. Pyar Jung Thapa took over as Chief of the Army Staff from Gen. Prajwalla SJB Rana Monday.
The Ministry confirmed heavy rebel casualties in the shoot-out without releasing rebel casualty figures.
The army shot dead nine rebels in Dang Sunday during a search operation, the Ministry said.
[Editor's note: Can any of our readers explain why the Nepal security forces toll is invariably so high in these Maoist attacks?]
Return To Top September 10, 2002
September 9, 2002
US-UK Air Might Knocks out Iraq's Air Force-Air Defense Front Lines
Ex-Inspector Doubts Iraq Capability
15 dead as warlord, Government forces clash in Khost
Tribesmen protest against search for al-Qaeda
Iraq war not imminent, says NATO general September 8
The new Afghan jihad is born September 7
Analyst who criticized Saudis leaves RAND September 7
US navy ships heavy armour to Gulf September 5
Debka's Analysis of Iraq's Missile Capability September 5
US-UK Air Might Knocks out Iraq's Air Force-Air Defense Front Lines
From DebkaFile.
The importance of the massive US-UK air raid over Western Iraq Friday night, September 6, cannot be exaggerated. Although the Bush administration is bidding hard for broad international support for the US offensive against Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction, DEBKAfile 's military sources report that, since last month, a combined American-British air blitz has been proceeding to systematically knock out the first line of Iraq's air force and air defenses.
US and European diplomats in New York are working on a joint draft resolution to put before the General Assembly, calling for a coercive UN inspection force to go into Iraq escorted by an international military force and be given a deadline for establishing finally whether or not Iraq has developed weapons of mass destruction. However, Iraqi spokesmen have already rejected UN arms inspections without the lifting of sanctions, while Arab League Secretary Amr Mussa, has declared the whole Arab world supports Iraq's position. On Saturday, September 7, he said no Arab government would brook outside interference in Iraq, even by the world body.
The diplomatic flurry and the White House bid for support at home effectively post-date the start of the US offensive against Iraq, which took place three months ago - not with a bang but by cautious, prefatory steps. Unlike the softening-up air blitz against Afghanistan's Taliban and al Qaeda last year, US forces have been quietly filtering into Iraq (as DEBKAfile informed its readers). To date, American and allied Turkish special forces have gained control of some 15 percent of Iraqi soil - mostly in the north. They are poised at a point 10-15 miles from Iraq's two northern oil cities of Mosul andKirkuk, together with pro-American Kurdish and Turkman paramilitary groups, with no Iraqi force in the way of their advance, if ordered to occupy the two towns.
The massive US-UK air raid last Friday, September 6, by 100 fighter-bombers, reconnaissance and air tanker craft against the Iraqi air base cluster known as H-3 and the al Baghdadi air installation was Strike Number Two against the first line of Iraqi air and air defense command structures, the tactical prelude to any US offensive. It was also the first blow to systems for delivering Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
Strike Number One was carried out on August 5, when American and British bombers and fighter craft demolished the Iraqi air command and control center at al-Nukhaib, in the desert between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, 260 miles southwest of Baghdad. This strike disposed of Iraq's southern air defense line and left central Iraq including Baghdad vulnerable to US air, missile and ground attack from Saudi Arabia,Kuwait, Qatar,Oman and Bahrain.
Strike Number two last week completed the destruction of Iraq's air defenses in the west, leaving the Saddam regime exposed to attack from the south, the southeast, the west and the north, as well as a US troop presence actually inside northern Iraq.
DEBKAfile 's military sources sum up American tactical gains in Iraq thus far:
A. Hitting the H-3, site of the bulk of the ground-ground-missile batteries and air defense installations threatening Israeli, Jordan and US Eastern Mediterranean forces, as well as al Baghdadi, cleared the way for US special forces to be flown by helicopter across the border into Iraq from the West. Nothing now stops them from reaching as far as Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's tribal stronghold northwest of Baghdad, where the Iraqi ruler is believed to be hiding underground with his family and top officials. There too he has concentrated the bulk of the loyal units of the Iraqi army.
The first mission for the US units crossing in from Jordan will be, according to DEBKAfile's military sources, to capture the bombed air installations and prepare them quickly for the use of US air force units and for more US and Jordanian special forces landings.
H-3 is designated their jumping off base for the next stage of the campaign.
B. Since August 5, the way for an American advance into Iraq is also clear from the south.
Therefore, the general contours of the next US steps begin to take shape:
1. A combined US-Turkish force, backed by local groups, will complete the capture of northern Iraq and its oil cities.
2. The combined US-Jordanian force will advance on Baghdad and Tikrit.
3. The heavy military and armored units massed on the Kuwait-Iraq frontier will advance north in two heads - one forking off to the east and heading for Basra, while the other makes for the Shiite towns of Najef and Karbala on the Baghdad highway.
C. Our sources report that the air strike against H-3 and al Baghdadi destroyed some of Saddam's ground-to-ground missiles, reducing the missile threat to Israel, Jordan and US East Mediterranean forces, though not eliminating it. Also destroyed were some of the Czech-manufactured LA-29 trainer planes sighted at al Baghdad in recent months, with aerosols fitted to their wings that are capable of spraying poison substances on the ground like anthrax. Some of the LA-29 have been adapted for kamikaze missions.
D. No less important politically,DEBKAfile's military sources stress, is that some of the US assault craft took off from and returned to the Saudi Prince Sultan air base, 35 miles northeast of Riyadh, as well as from Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
As DEBKA-Net-Weekly reported in its last issues, the Bush administration is resolved to brush aside the public objections of Saudi leaders to the use of the kingdom's bases against Iraq. American generals do not propose to heed the public declarations of rulers of lands where US bases are located, but to use them according to American military exigencies.
[Editor's Note. If Debka is correct, and we believe it is, at least in broad outline, then those engaged in arguing if the US should attack Iraq are fighting yesterday's battle. The US is already at war with Iraq and there is nothing left to debate. This raises an interesting question. Has the Bush administration, operating under the cover of the extreme stupidity attributed to it by critics, actually been diverting attention from the start of the war by its many and varied statements? If so, its being rather clever.]
Return To Top September 9, 2002
Ex-Inspector Doubts Iraq Capability
Extracts from an Associated Press story written by Sameer N. Yacoub, appearing in Yahoo.
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq is incapable of producing weapons of mass destruction and should prove it by allowing in U.N. weapons inspectors, an American who was once on the inspections teams said Sunday.
With his comments during a visit to Baghdad, Scott Ritter - who has been a sharp critic of U.S. policy on Iraq - joined a long list of officials from European and Arab nations who have urged Iraq to accept inspectors to defuse a crisis with the United States.
Iraqi cooperation on inspections would leave the United States "standing alone in regards to war threats on Iraq and this is the best way to prevent the war," said Ritter.
Ritter, a former U.S. Marine intelligence officer, spoke to members of parliament and to journalists on his third trip to Iraq since he resigned from the U.N. inspection team in 1998. As in the past, his trip was organized by the Iraqi government. The rest of his schedule was not yet public.
"The truth is Iraq is not a threat to its neighbors and it is not acting in a manner which threatens anyone outside its borders," Ritter said. "Military action against Iraq cannot be justified."
Other members of the U.N. teams that investigated Iraq's weapons of mass destruction from 1991 to 1998 have told The Associated Press that Iraq probably possesses large stockpiles of nerve agents, mustard gas and anthrax. They add that while the country does not have a nuclear bomb, it has the designs, equipment and expertise to build one quickly if it were able to get enough weapons-grade uranium or plutonium.
Many former inspectors say Iraq's arsenal is not much of a threat because Saddam has been deterred so far by fear of U.S. retaliation and apparently has been reluctant to share his weapons with terrorists.
Ritter resigned from the U.N. inspection team in August 1998 after several years as a member. He left denouncing the Clinton administration for having withdrawn support for the U.N. agency and undermining weapons inspections.
He has since said Washington used the inspectors to spy on Iraq - a longtime charge by Baghdad - and manipulated the United Nations to provoke a confrontation with Saddam as a pretext for U.S. airstrikes on Iraq.
[Editor's note. That Mr. Ritter likes publicity has long been evident. Nonetheless, its possible he is also that most dangerous of people, an honest man driven to stand up for he believes is the truth. By using Baghdad as his platform to make his recent speech, however, he's compromised himself in the eyes of many who might otherwise have been open to listen to him. Many Americans may not agree with their government on Iraq. But given the very old fashioned patriotism that is so common among Americans, they will not appreciate his statements from the enemy's capital.]
Return To Top September 9, 2002
15 dead as warlord, Government forces clash in Khost
Daily Jang of Pakistan. Extracts.
ISLAMABAD: At least 15 fighters and civilians were killed and more than 51 wounded in fighting between government forces and those of renegade warlord Padshah Khan Zadran in Afghanistan's eastern city of Khost on Sunday, Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) reported.
.It said that fighting had erupted in several parts of the city where Padshah Khan's supporters were in the majority, including the areas around the governor's house, the provincial guest house and customs house. It quoted witnesses as saying the rival fighters used rocket grenades and small arms.
[Refering to reports that he had been arrested by US forces], Padshah Khan Zadran was quoted by the AIP as saying: "The Khost radio report that I have been arrested by US forces is wrong. I am free and am at present at my ancestral village. I had talks with a US delegation who met me in an attempt to remove differences between (President) Hamid Karzai and me," he said.
Padshah Khan was a strong local ally of the US in its hunt for Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants. Kabul vowed last month to crush the warlord after he organised street protests in Khost against the central government of Karzai. Padshah Khan was sacked by Karzai as governor of Paktia province in February and showered Gardez with missiles in May, killing more than 30 people.
[Editor's note: Those opposing Mr. Hamid Karzai would do best to understand the American patience with their postures, games, and machinations is limited. They should take the money and favors the Americans are willing to bestow, and quit while they are ahead. The Americans are not the Russians. If the warlords haven't understood this, then they're playing with their lives. It's easy to go on yakking about how stupid the Americans are; the problem is that the Americans are also the fastest learners on this planet. This wasn't evident in Vietnam, but that was a generation ago. In a single year the US has gone from having no presence at all in Afghanistan to having destroyed the Taliban's ability to present any coherent opposition to the American take-over of Afghanistan. We don't think we're being rash in predicting that in September 2003 many of those who oppose Mr. Karzai today will be irrelevant commas in the history of Afghanistan.]
Return To Top September 9, 2002
Tribesmen protest against search for al-Qaeda
Extracts from the Daily Jang of Pakistan.
PESHAWAR: More than 1,000 armed tribesmen staged a protest against a search by paramilitary forces for suspected al-Qaeda members in north-west Pakistan, officials said on Sunday.
The demonstration on Saturday was to protest against disruption caused by the search at Laddha in South Waziristan. "Authorities have blocked the roads in various places. They have arrested locals and are searching our vehicles every day," said tribesman Alam Wazir.
Protesters threatened to continue their demonstration unless those arrested were freed and roads were reopened. Tribal elders speaking at the protest said there were no al-Qaeda members in the tribal areas. They criticised the US and its allies for killing innocent people during military operations in Afghanistan.
On Thursday, soldiers suspended operations against one remote tribal village in the region after tribesmen promised to hunt and hand over four wanted foreigners whom they said had escaped from their custody.
Authorities suspect the foreigners, who were snatched from their grasp by up to 60 armed tribesmen on Monday after being arrested during a routine car check, may be linked to al-Qaeda.
Some 6,000 Pakistani troops, assisted by intelligence and communications experts from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, have been scouring the tribal border belt for months for al-Qaeda fugitives from Afghanistan.
Regular troops and paramilitaries pounded Janikhel village with heavy weapons late on Wednesday and demolished homes in an attempt to flush out the wanted men after tribesmen refused to hand them over.
Meanwhile, Pamphlets calling for Jihad against the "US-backed puppet government" of President Hamid Karzai have been distributed in a tribal area in north-west Pakistan for the third time in recent months, residents said at the weekend.
Thousands of pamphlets written in Pashtu language appeared in the tribal belt's South Waziristan district, where Pakistan Army has been seeking to hunt down al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives, they said.
[Editor's note. We feel the pain of the Pakistani tribals. The US has challenged their centuries old way of life with no more concern for them than an American traffic policeman has for a red-light runner. The tribals are replaying the tape they have played for so long: it's all about their honor and their customs and their traditions, and how they will kill the Americans who have dared violate their sanctuaries. The news that the tribals have declared jihad on America will cause less excitement in Washington than that resulting from an evening rush hour snarl on the Capital Beltway. It's not the Americans that don't learn from history, it's the tribals. It wasn't so long ago they learned that challenging British power wasn't such a good idea.
Now they will have to learn not to challenge American power, with the difference the Americans deploy perhaps 10-100 times as much of it as the British did in the 19th Century. Our advice to the tribals: get over it. All the Americans are asking is that you not help their enemies. Take their money, and get out of their way before you are put out of their way. And by the way, butting heads with the Pakistan Army is not such a good idea either. The Pakistan Army is indeed an army of the people, but it takes it very personally if the people start firing at it. The Baluchis found that out to their cost in 1974-76.]
Return To Top September 9, 2002
September 08,
2002
Experts Say Peru Rebels Will Revamp
Iraq war not imminent, says NATO general
OPEC, consumers say oil 'not a weapon
Bridging the Gap Between Muslim World and the West September 7
The new Afghan jihad is born September 7
Analyst who criticized Saudis leaves RAND September 7
US navy ships heavy armour to Gulf September 5
Debka's Analysis of Iraq's Missile Capability September 5
Extracts from a article
from the The Associated Press.
Extracts from an Associated Press article
Extracts from and AFP story in the Hindustan Times
Berlin, September 07
Extracts from an Associated Press article