May 31, 2002
New Mideast Deal: DebkaFile
Washington's Silly Season
Relocation of Islamic fundamentalists from the Caucasus to the Middle East May 30
India and Pakistan Face Off May 30, 2002
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Indian Sub-Continent teeters on the edge of War May 28
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
New Mideast Deal: DebkaFile
[The curse of the Third World is its own leaders. What sense is there for Palestinians to blame Israel for all their trouble when they have Chairman Arafat as their leader? The gentleman is already hedging on elections - he will hold them when the Israelis withdraw. Your editor believes Israelis should withdraw, but that is an entirely separate issue from elections. If Prime Minister Sharon is part of the problem, Chairman Arafat is a bigger part of the problem. Bigger because the former at least has to answer to his people; the Chairman answers to no one.
Many Israelis, as also your editor, expected fierce fighting once the Israeli Army entered Palestinian controlled areas. The Palestinians had large, well-armed security forces. Yet, as far as we know, not one anti-tank missile was fired at an Israeli tank, not one SAM fired at an Israeli helicopter. The security forces essentially melted away. The security forces are volunteers, not draftees. Volunteer soldiers who refuse to protect their people against the enemy are not just cowards, they are traitors and scum. No one wants to die, but if you are not prepared to die, don't become a soldier.
For years, many Israelis and Palestinians have said Palestinian security forces are Chairman Arafat's personal security forces, not the forces of the people. This has been proved beyond all doubt.
The Americans and the Europeans want to protect the Palestinian people against Israel. In your editor's opinion, they should. Israel, however, is not their sole enemy; some would say not even their main enemy. The enemy of the Palestinian people is Chairman Arafat. The Israelis will eventually get rid of Prime Minister Sharon: the vast majority of Israelis are decent people who want to treat the Palestinians with respect. Who will get rid of Chairman Arafat when America and the Europeans alike protect him?]
Weekend Diplomacy to Tie Last Ends of
Gaza Strip Deal
While the summer Middle East conference and Palestinian Authority reforms grab world headlines, DEBKAfile's exclusive military and intelligence sources report senior diplomatic and intelligence officials in Washington, Cairo, Riyadh, Jerusalem and at least one European capital, namely Berlin, working against the clock to reshuffle the components of the Middle East crisis into a new pattern. Its broad lineaments were first aired in DEBKAfile in mid-April. The idea is to assemble the package in advance of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's trip to Camp David on June 7.
To bring the deal this far, the White House had to make the divergent strands of its policy team speak with one voice. Therefore, assistant secretary of state William Burns spent Wednesday, 29 May, in Cairo talking to Egyptian leaders, at the same time as the defense department's policy chief Douglas Feith. The two officials will work together on the final configuration and execution of the new plan, on behalf of secretary of state Colin Powell, on the one hand, and vice president Richard Cheney and defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, on the other.
German foreign minister Joshke Fischer, in Israel since Tuesday, May 28, will represent the European
interest.
CIA Director George Tenet flies to Cairo or Jerusalem on Friday, May 31, to take charge of the final stage of the process. He will be joined in Jerusalem on Friday by Mubarak's political adviser Osama al Baz, who will inform the Israeli prime minister, defense minister and foreign minister that Egypt agrees to free Azzam Azzam, who has spent five years in an Egyptian prison on charges of spying for Israel.
Israeli ministers will reciprocate by releasing the eight Egyptian seamen captured aboard the Palestinian arms smuggling vessel intercepted on the Red Sea last January.
But beyond these two goodwill gestures, the deal entails granting Yasser Arafat the freedom to travel and return to Palestinian territory, an essential concession for making the Palestinian leader a figurehead of the reformed Palestinian Authority.
Upon the release of Azzam, Israel will endorse the Tenet plan to consolidate the jungle of Palestinian security and intelligence organs into four new Palestinian intelligence bodies based in the Gaza Strip. They will come under the direction of Muhamed Dahlan and be closely supervised by Egyptian intelligence. The collaboration of these four bodies with Israeli security will create a useful intelligence junction for the United States, Egypt, Israel and the PA to fight terror - Palestinian and international.
Under another provision, the Egyptian army will be moved up to the frontier with Israel to block off a primary Palestinian arms and personnel smuggling route that runs through tunnels from Sinai into the Gaza Strip.
Return To Top May 31, 2002
Washington's Silly Season
A respected American scholar says on the evening network news that the situation between India and Pakistan is so dangerous it makes the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 look like [children's games?] - your editor does not hear so well, so the metaphor may not be entirely accurate, but the scholar's intent was clear.
Had the Cuban Missile Crisis escalated to nuclear war, North America, Europe, and the Soviet Union would have been devastated. The US may well have attacked Chinese targets, to ensure these fellow communists did not provide a recovery base for the Soviets. US and allied bases around the world would have been attacked as well, so a good proportion of the world would have been reduced to radioactive ash, or taken from days to years dying of the residual radioactivity: the bombs of those days were big and dirty.
The world's population was about half of what it was today, and anywhere between 100- and 300-million people would have died, perhaps more. Most of them would have been bystanders to the American-Soviet dispute. The US DIA, using a highly inflated set of assumptions, says up to 12 million would die in an Indo-Pakistan nuclear exchange. Very few of these will be bystanders. Unless your editor is mistaken, the Indo-Pakistan crisis is child's play compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis, not the other way around.
Now, of course, what may underlie the scholar's statement is a racist assumption: India and Pakistan could spin out of control because after all, they are just plain ignorant brown natives. Washington-Moscow had the whole show under control, presumably because they were run by wise white men.
Your editor would like to ask this scholar some questions.
-
Suppose that to America's north lies not Canada, but the Soviet Union, circa 1970. The Soviets have been supporting a ruthless insurgency in New England for 15 years, and both sides daily exchange small arms fire, and on most days, mortar and artillery fire. Yet for 15 years the situation has not escalated into conventional war, leave alone nuclear war. Is this a plausible assumption?
- Three years ago, the Soviets quietly seize American controlled territory in Maine. The Americans fight back, taking heavy losses, but never cross the border, limiting themselves to fighting entirely on their own territory. Is this a plausible assumption?
- Including 1999, America and the Soviet Union have fought four wars. Yet never has either deliberately targeted any civilian facility - no command centers in a populated area, no power plants, no water facility, no arms factory, no telecommunications node. They have attacked only rail and road choke points that are directly related to the movement of enemy forces at the front. Is this a plausible assumption?
If the American scholar can answer yes to all, then your editor would have to concede that there are some analogies between Cuba 1962 and South Asia 2002. If he answers no, then your editor has a favor to ask of him.
Please don't condescend to the South Asians. They have shown greater restraint and greater humanity to civilians than your country has in times of peril. Maybe one reason neither India or Pakistan seems overly concerned about the dangers of a nuclear war is that both understand the daily nuclear threats made by President Musharraf are just bluster. Indian and Pakistani generals could conceivably loose nuclear weapons at each other's advancing armies if faced with a massive defeat - it's a remote possibility, but it is a possibility. To suggest or to imply either country would deliberately aim at civilian centers is a belief that grows out of your mindset. It has no bearing on South Asia.
Now, your editor has little hope that the American scholar will understand any of this. These are old debates. Those Americans who know something about India and Pakistan do not need to be convinced. Those that know nothing will not be convinced. Nonetheless, there are other people more open-minded, and for them your editor will discuss tomorrow why conventional Americans notions of war fighting, strategy, crisis management and the like have absolutely no relevance to the present situation in South Asia.
Return To Top May 31, 2002
May 30, 2002
Relocation of Islamic fundamentalists from the Caucasus to the Middle East
India and Pakistan Face Off May 30, 2002
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Indian Sub-Continent teeters on the edge of War May 28
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Russia Helping China Build Systems for Taiwan Assault May 27
DebkaFile on Pakistan's Missile Test May 26
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
Relocation of Islamic fundamentalists from the Caucasus to the Middle East
By NJV; forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
Is Saudi Arabia (KSA) trying to get more influence in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict by relocating Wahhabi fundamentalists from the Caucasus to the Middle East? Besides trying to get more influence in the countries of the Caucasus it seems that according to some Russian reports that wherever the oil flows or wherever the Saudi Intelligence service (SOR) directs them to, Wahhabi fundamentalists are settling into their terrorist activities. And this time apparently the Middle Eastern conflict is the focus of their attention.
According to the reports, the Wahhabis from the Caucasus are concentrated in two different Wahhabi groups in the Lebanon; the Asbat al Ansar and the Takfir Wa Al-Hijra, this would permit the KSA to increase its influence in the conflict to the level of Tehran, with its control over Hezbollah. It would also give it the possibility to escalate tension on Israel's Northern border at any time, thus provoking, in the long term, possible armed clashes between Syria and Israel.
The Saudi Intelligence service deeply involved
The relocation campaign started apparently two years ago but was stepped up significantly in the spring of this year. The main co-ordinator and initiator of this evacuation was apparently Saudi Arabia's General Intelligence Service (SOR KSA - Al Istakhbarat al-'Amiyyah) and the International leadership (AL-QIYADAH AL-'ALIMIYYAH) of the International association of Muslim (Brotherhood) brothers (HARAKAT AL-IKHAWAN AL-MUSLIMUN). In order to accomplish its missions the indicated organizations above are working with numerous NGO's and commercial companies as well with Islamic organizations and individual Muslim activists connected with Saudi Arabia and operating in Russia, the Caucasus, the Ukraine, Central Asia, Turkey, and European countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Sweden.
According to the same sources there are also links with the SOR KSA and the Pakistani ISI. Apparently small groups of "Chechen Arabs" were relocated/redeployed to Northeast Georgia, North Azerbaijan, Abkhazia, Tajikistan and Kazachstan, furthermore some of these clandestine groups were relocated to Turkey and Gaza. But apparently in the last year the lion share of the redeployed Chechens went to Lebanon and Jordan. Besides being relocated into two different groups Asbat Al Ansar and Takfir Wa Al Hijra, the Mujahideen maintained contacts with the SOR KSA. Accordingly the Russian Security Service(FSB) are trying to neutralize their communications with those still remaining in the Caucasus. Jordan also got a piece of the cake, according to several sources some 20 Chechen Arabs had been relocated to refugee camps in the country. It seems that these Chechen's have some links with the Jordanian Military Intelligence service and civil police through Chechen officers.
Reasons behind the relocation
The largest reason would be the Russian crackdown on the Islamic Fundamentalists in the Caucasus but also that Wahhabism isn't getting the backing of the local population as it had expected. According to seized documents the largest reason for the Saudi Arabian aid would be a financial one, namely the necessity for preserving tension in the Near East to artificially support prices in the world petroleum market on a background of a general decline in economic activity, thus leading to a reduction in oil prices which would undermine also the Saudi economy and which could lead in the long run to social-political crisis in the country. The latter is something that Saudi Arabia is deperate to avoid, although it has already been plagued over the last year with a number of riots organized by groups opposing the Al Saud regime. This would also threaten to undermine Saudi Arabia's influence with the West and risk a geo-strategically disaster for Saudi Arabia and its partners.
Another reason could also be that Saudi Arabia is trying to get a hand in the Middle East peace process area by redirecting Chechen Arabs to these locations. These groups would then be under their direct control and not under the influence of Palestinian public opinion or directly controlled by the PNA. Saudi Arabia is still an exporter and promoter of Wahhabism, a traditional and fundamentalist form of Islam. The Saudi role in the peace process would increase to the level of importance that Iran is playing for at the moment. By inciting attacks on Israel these groups would most surely create retaliatory reactions from Israel on the countries that are harbouring them and causing possible future violence between these states and Israel. Additionally they could be used as pressure groups against the established governments, especially in Jordan.
Whether entirely directed or not by the KSA, the relocation of Chechen Arabs to the Middle East is a significant issue, something that will play a giant role in the future of this war torn region. The region could happily do without another fundamentalist group trying to establish an Islamic state. Their presence may indeed create havoc and exacerbate problems already existing both between Islamic groups in the region and with the newly arrived militants. Tensions may also rise between the manipulators and backers of these various groups. Intelligence sources in the Middle East are already questioning whether the region is going to be plunged into another round of power games.
Return To Top May 30, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 30, 2002
DIA Says 8-12 million will die in Indo-Pakistan Nuclear War
Coincidentally, your editor completed a study today that indicates 90% of DIA assessments on India and Pakistan are speculative, are designed to serve the foreign policy goals of the United States rather than perform objective analysis, and as such are utterly worthless.
Your editor will be happy to release his study when the DIA explains to us how they have derived their figures.
US to release spares, helicopters to Pakistan
Several reports say the US is preparing to release C-130 spares to Pakistan and to supply helicopters to enhance Pakistan's ability to counter infiltration along its western border. In itself, this is not newsworthy. What is newsworthy, however, is that if these reports are correct, the US has been so restrictive in supplying Pakistan with military equipment that it has been holding up even spares for the PAF's C-130s.
Pakistan UN Ambassador on his country's nuclear doctrine
ABC-TV Evening News yesterday had clips of the Pakistan Ambassador to the United Nations saying that his country has never said it will not use nuclear weapons first. This may serve Pakistan's immediate purposes, but is an extremely dangerous thing to say, especially since Pakistan has made so many nuclear threats in the last few weeks.
Pentagon Geniuses At It Again
ABC-TV Evening News 1900 Daylight Savings Time May 29, 2002, had its Pentagon correspondent informing us that: India is moving its tactical missiles to the front. Since these can carry nuclear or conventional warheads, the worry is that if India fires the missiles, Pakistan will not know if it under nuclear attack, and may respond with nuclear missiles.
Can someone please tell the Pentagon that:
- These missiles are short-range systems with a flight time of a few minutes
- They are interdiction weapons, not counter-force systems
- Pakistan's missiles are mobile and India has no real time capability to know where Pakistan's missiles are at any given moment
- As such, neither can Pakistan detect them and respond before the Indian missiles hit, nor is there any slightest danger to Pakistan's missiles from the Indian missiles. Pakistan has neither the means, nor the incentive, to fire missiles just because it cannot determine if the missiles are nuclear armed.
- We've been told the US has taken "precautions" to ensure no Pakistani nuclear warheads fall into Al Qaida hands advertently or inadvertently. So if the Pakistanis have the warheads back in their own custody, perhaps the Pentagon would like to explain what steps have been taken to ensure the warheads are not diverted under the pretext of an emergency with India? And can India sue the Pentagon for permitting the warheads to return to Pakistani custody knowing they could be used against civilians? And since all India wants is to kill terrorists, many of whom look to be the same ones the US is trying to kill, why is the US protecting these terrorists by doing everything possible to stop India from attacking?
Return To Top May 30, 2002
May 29, 2002
Pakistan and its western border
Indian Sub-Continent teeters on the edge of War May 28
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Russia Helping China Build Systems for Taiwan Assault May 27
DebkaFile on Pakistan's Missile Test May 26
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
An American View of the India-Pakistan Face Off May 25
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 24, 2002
Pakistan and its western border
You have to admire the Pakistanis. Each time the Indians get ready to bash them for sending terrorists into Indian Kashmir, the Pakistanis move the same old missiles around in circles, threatening nuclear war. The world rushes in to restrain - India! In its turn, India whines the Americans aren't doing enough to control Pakistan, as if its America's problem and not India's. The US assures India it understands, but President Musharraf needs more time to deal with domestic opposition.
Then Washington tells Pakistan "Oh Behave!". President Musharraf says no terrorists will cross into Indian Kashmir, and he'd love to America kill the Al Qaida/Taliban. But you see, he says sorrowfully, I've had to move all my troops to the East because India is threatening me. So Washington starts turning the screws on India. No matter that when the US wants to go after Al Qaida who are now treating Pakistan's Tribal Zone as their Grand Hotel, Islamabad says - also sorrowfully - we cannot alienate the tribals too much, and in any case, there are no Al Qaida here such as you say. Your intelligence says they are? Tut tut old boy, your intelligence is worthless. Also, no matter that President Musharraf is concerned, the men crossing into Kashmir are freedom fighters and not terrorists, so as far as he is concerned he is true to his word.
Today lets discuss the alleged shortage of troops to police the Afghan-Pakistan border because the threat of war in the East is diverting Pakistani resources.
The Pakistan Army has close on 625,000 troops and 120,000 or so well trained paramilitary troops. Troops from Peshawar, the corps HQ most concerned with stopping infiltration, can be in the east within 24-48 hours. Pakistan can indeed spare troops for the west, and even wait till war actually starts before moving them.
There are complications. Regular Pakistan Army troops do not, as a rule, enter the tribal zone except if their peacetime bases happen to be located in tribal territory. Even then, they do not watch the border. The border is the responsibility of the Frontier Corps. They know every kilometer of the border. The regulars that have been sent there do not. The regulars are good as backups should fighting erupt, but when it comes to heaving to up and down hills, talking to locals, reading trails, checking out streams, the Frontier Corps are the people to do the needful. Now, the Frontier Corps battalions have secondary roles in the event of an all-out war with India, but they can certainly stay in the west till the actual outbreak of war, backed by a couple of regular brigades.
Not so, some will say. The above argument is fallacious because the Frontier Corps troops are hand-in-glove with the locals, if only because they themselves are locals. They will not be helpful to anyone, even their own government, in the matter of Al Qaida and the Taliban.
The above refutation indeed has serious merit. Except for one thing. Its true the regular army's rank and file may have few ethnic or kinship ties to the tribal zone. Most troops, despite the names of regiments like the Baloch (Baluch) Regiment and the Frontier Force are Punjabis. This, however, means nothing. The Inter Services Intelligence officers does have a cadre of regulars, but a large number of its officers are deputed from the regular army, returning to their units when their posting is over. Being ISI is just another job in the promotion ladder. The ISI does not want the Taliban touched, and probably does not want most of Al Qaida touched. Its unlikely the regular army battalions will be much more willing than the Frontier Corps to take on the job of betraying their close friends..
There is a further complication. The Frontier Corps may have a better ability to police the frontier than the Pakistan Army, but it's not clear what that capability is. It's unlikely much policing has been done since the Corps was formed over a century ago. To the people in the region, the Durrand Line is an artificial border. This was never a border as most of understand the term, and it has not been policed as one. Particularly so after 1990, when Pakistan developed its strategy of integrating Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Frontier Corps is used to man isolated checkpoints and watchpoints, not to trek for hours each blistering day up and down mountains. It keeps a kind of overall peace in the frontier regions; infiltration has never been any kind of priority in a region where people come and go as they like between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Consider. India has a 650 km border with Pakistan in the Jammu and Kashmir region. We ignore Ladakh, since no meaningful infiltration takes place there. India has approximately 100,000 troops including paramilitary, watching the border. Your editor has seen reports that in peak infiltration season, up to a thousand Indian patrols are out each night looking for terrorists. The results we know: the terrorists continue to infiltrate and exfiltrate, despite every Indian attenpt to stop them. The Pakistan-Afghan border is twice as long, and the Pakistanis have no interest in stopping men wanted by America. Logically, even 200,000 men will not suffice.
So: regardless of what's happening with India, Pakistan cannot, and will not stop transborder movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
What's America to do? Well, your editor has his own problems, so the Americans had best figure this out for themselves. Meanwhile, it's as well to remember one thing. A brigade has perhaps 250 officers and senior NCOs. It takes just one or two sympathetic to the Al Qaida/Taliban to blow a search operation. Don't anyone in Washington hold their breath waiting for the Pakistanis to do the job. This does not mean they are evil or liars. It just means helping America hurts a big part of their regional interests.
Return To Top May 29, 2002
May 28, 2002
Indian Sub-Continent teeters on the edge of War
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Russia Helping China Build Systems for Taiwan Assault May 27
DebkaFile on Pakistan's Missile Test May 26
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
An American View of the India-Pakistan Face Off May 25
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 24, 2002
Indian Sub-Continent teeters on the edge of War
By our colleague Richard M. Bennett.
As speculation continues to grow about the likelihood of a potential nuclear conflict developing from any major Indian anti-terrorist campaign inside the Pakistan held areas of Kashmir, there is an unfortunate misunderstanding of the military realities amongst much of the worlds media. Tables showing India with an overwhelming superiority in manpower, tanks and combat aircraft, with colourful graphs on the TV News indicating the movement of the Indian fleet into the Arabian Sea to blockade Pakistan's main seaports all add to the belief, indeed fostered by Islamabad that Pakistan may be forced into a first use of nuclear weapons because of the sizeable conventional imbalance in India's favour.
In fact nothing could be further from the truth. India has a vast and troubled land mass to police, borders with Burma (Myanmar) and a Nepal racked by a Maoist rebellion, but much more importantly and strategically vital are several long borders with Communist China. Beijing keeps several hundred thousand well armed and trained troops on India's northern borders and in small enclaves captured in previous conflicts. The Chinese also lay claim to considerable additional areas of northern India and these defensive commitments alone tie down large numbers of India's front line troops and aircraft well away from the potential battleground with Pakistan. Indeed, as much of the northern border area's are mountainous the defending Indian troops would be ideal for the combat conditions in Kashmir, however while China remains a close ally of Islamabad there is little real chance of the re-deployment of any of these much needed Indian units. The cities of Northern India are vulnerable not only to Pakistan, but also to Chinese air attack and cities such as Calcutta well away from the western battle zone still draw off considerable numbers of air defence aircraft from any air war with Pakistan.
Pakistan's inbuilt military advantage
Pakistan, on the other hand, free of its Afghan commitments can concentrate much of its smaller, though still considerable armed forces near the Line of Control in Kashmir and further south along the border with India, while its Air Force is only required to defend a much smaller geographical area. Indeed, in many vital zones and important choke points for any prospective Indian attack, Pakistan may well be able to achieve considerable local superiority in both manpower and equipment. Pakistan will also have shorter lines of communication, logistic re-supply and indeed the support of tens of thousands of Islamic terrorists operating both behind the Indian front line and within Jammu & Kashmir itself. The opportunities for supporters of both Kashmir separatism and Osama Bin-Ladin to carry out a reign of terror and sabotage within Indian territory is immense and must surely be a major factor shaping any future Indian offensive.
India may well seek to limit the planned offensive to trapping and destroying the Islamic militants in the mountains and valleys of the territory just over the Line of Control, with the minimum possible contact with regular Pakistan troops. However, this may well prove to be an unattainable goal and a full scale conflict is likely to develop within Kashmir and indeed spread along the international frontier between the two states. Air attacks at first limited to ground support are likely to soon involve strikes on each others airfields, communications and rear support areas. The risk that an escalation towards strikes on the main Cities leading to an eventual exchange of tactical nuclear weapons cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly if either Indian or Pakistani combat forces find themselves at a serious disadvantage later in the conflict. It is this risk that must now be quickly addressed by the leaders of the worlds major nations and though the opportunities from temporarily easing tension between India and Pakistan are still there, any chance of reaching a genuine settlement of the Kashmir problem are virtually nil and the region, though it might escape an all out conflict this time will continue to remain a hugely dangerous flashpoint for the foreseeable future.
Return To Top May 28, 2002
May 27, 2002
Understanding Musharraf's Mind
Russia Helping China Build Systems for Taiwan Assault
DebkaFile on Pakistan's Missile Test May 26
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
An American View of the India-Pakistan Face Off May 25
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 24, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 23, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Understanding Musharraf's Mind
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, an article by J.N. Dixit appearing in the Hindustan Times.
In the simmering tension between India and Pakistan, Indian policy makers would
do well to try to comprehend the mindset of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf,
his policy orientations and actions arising therefrom.
His professional and psychological background is not just that of an army
officer but that of a commando and special forces officer. His psychological
make-up and mindset is essentially aggressive, operation-oriented, uninhibited
about taking risks and of an inner confidence about military victories.
Add to this his deep ideological commitment to jehad and making Pakistan the
most influential Islamic country in South Asia and West Asia.
He is permeated by the negative perceptions about India underpinning the
partition and creation of Pakistan. Now as head of state and chief of the
Pakistani Army, he controls the highest levers of power to determine Islamabad's
India policies.
India should therefore have no illusions about his willingness to have
reasonable compromises on issues at dispute with India. It would be relevant to
mention that on returning from India after the summit meeting with Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in Agra in July 2001, he gave a private assessment
to his inner circle that the Indian political leadership is indecisive and has
no unity.
He went on to give the assessment that the Indian armed forces, though
adequately equipped and well organised, are not backed up by assertive political
will and therefore its morale is not very high. The state of morale has also
been affected by prolonged ambiguities and covert military operations that
Pakistan has engaged in over the last decade and more.
He had come to the conclusion that if a war occurs, Pakistan could certainly
match India effectively, if not defeat India. Pakistan's policies since then
clearly reflect these assessments of Musharraf.
Despite his pledge to oppose all forms of terrorism he continues to maintain the
distinction between terrorism as a general phenomenon and the terrorist violence
in Jammu and Kashmir. He continues to assert that the violent movement by the
jehadis in Jammu and Kashmir is an indigenous freedom struggle to counter Indian
obstinacies.
Though he banned organisations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed and
arrested large numbers of their cadres, he has released them all. The Pakistani
government justified this decision by saying there was no evidence against these
cadres. The leaders of these cadres are in comfortable house arrest. Their
communication facilities and their arms and movements have not been subjected to
any restrictions.
In fact, Pakistan has encouraged these terrorist organisations to continue their
operations against India under new nomenclatures.
The high command of the Pakistan armed forces and Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) has continued to infiltrate terrorist cadres into Jammu and Kashmir from
Pakistan-administered Kashmir. With the onset of summer, when the snow melts on
the mountains along the border, this infiltration as well as terrorist violence
has increased.
The May 14 attack on the Indian residential military complex near Jammu and the
killing of Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone clearly indicate that the planning
of and support to terrorist activities from Pakistan will continue.
The Pakistani government's immediate objective is to subvert the preparations
for the Jammu and Kashmir state assembly elections due this year and to ensure
that they are not held.
It is also significant that Lone's murder followed his discussions with
political leaders from the Pakistan-administered part of Kashmir in Sharjah and
Dubai. Indian intelligence agencies have clear evidence that his assassination
plan was orchestrated by ISI.
Musharraf has also to divert Pakistani and Pushtun cadres of Al Qaida who have
escaped from Afghanistan to some enterprises away from Pakistan proper as
otherwise they will create major problems for him in his relations with the US
that are based on his commitment to neutralising these jehadi cadres. So he has
targeted Jammu and Kashmir.
The alienation of Jammu and Kashmir from the Indian republic by parallel violent
and political means remains the macro-level political objective of Musharraf's
India policies.
The inescapable conclusion is that while Musharraf cooperates with the U.S. in
its campaign against terror, he will continue to nurture and sustain terrorist
violence against India. The objective is to generate such pressure through these
means that it compels India to come to the negotiating table on his terms.
To ensure international support to this undeclared objective, he is utilising
two leverages. One, he is citing the Indian military build-up and diplomatic
pressure as an argument and a threat to Pakistan from which the US and Western
democracies should save him.
Two, he harps on the likelihood of his being compelled to use nuclear weapons
against India which will lead to India retaliating with nuclear weapons, a
situation to which the major powers of the world would be totally opposed at
both the political and military levels. His strategic anticipations appear being
fulfilled as shown in the high-level diplomatic pressure on India the US,
Britain and other countries are generating.
Vajpayee's statement last week to soldiers that India would take decisive action
against Pakistan has evoked assertive and smug response from Musharraf. Apart
from affirming Pakistan's capacity and will to retaliate effectively he has
reaffirmed the nuclear threat. It is clear that the US and the Western powers
have a limited objective of preventing an India-Pakistan war.
They do not assign the necessary high priority that India wants to countering
jehadi terrorism against the country. Nor do they seem inclined to acknowledge a
link between Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and the resulting politico-military
pressures, which India is trying to generate against Pakistan.
This attitude of the major powers reduces India's options. First, it is clear
that India would have to carry on its campaign against terrorism in Jammu and
Kashmir on its own.
Second, India should structure its Pakistan policies clearly on the predication
that any decisive military option it chooses would attract opposition from the
U.S. and major powers as well as the U.N.
India faces a very complex challenge of sustaining its credibility as a country
capable of taking decisive action against Pakistani mischief despite high
international opposition while at the same time ensuring that domestic processes
of elections and reconciliation are successfully carried out.
While India mounts diplomatic, political and limited military pressure on
Pakistan, the litmus test would be its success in being able to effectively
neutralise Pakistan's current long-term intentions. Given developing
circumstances, there does not seem to be any alternative to act decisively in
operational terms against Pakistan's activities in Jammu and Kashmir.
(The writer is a former foreign secretary)
Return To Top May 27, 2002
Russia Helping China Build Systems for Taiwan Assault
From DebkaFile
US President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin began their four-day summit at the Kremlin on a high note Friday, May 24, with the ceremonial signing of a reciprocal nuclear reduction pact. However, stormy waters lie ahead of the two leaders as they move to St. Petersburg, Saturday, May 25, and get down to brass tacks. Iran is not the only issue seriously at odds between them.
DEBKAfile's China team reports have learned that that, in early April 2002, the major Russian state armaments concern Rosoboroneksport approved assistance to China by the Russian aerospace-defense industry in building up the required military equipment for a possible Taiwan operation.
Systems recently sold include two US$200 million Altair Research and Production Association Federal State Unitary Enterprise Rif S-300F ship borne air defense systems for heavy cruisers, the naval counterpart of the S-300 surface to air missile system (SAM) that has a tactical ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability.
China's People's Liberation Army has recently ordered US$400 million S-300 systems. The choice of the S-300F by the PLA Army Navy (PLAN) may indicate that it intends to develop a class of 10,000 ton plus missile cruisers by 2005, possibly in tandem with the development of a class of large aircraft carriers for power projection throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
Russian sources indicate that China's indigenous shipbuilding industry is advancing towards the building of units geared towards a near-term Taiwan invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently formed a new Almaz-Antey air defense concern that will include Altair and twenty other air defense related designers and manufacturers. China is now concentrating on ordering key Russian subsystems, rather than complete combat systems such as aircraft and ships, that can be quickly integrated in Chinese designed platforms and eventually reverse-engineered and improved. One example is advanced Russian AL-31FN turbofan aero-engines for China's new indigenous J-10 jet fighter that is now entering serial production by the Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Group. Another is the likely delivery of several advanced Russian A-50 Mainstay AWAC aircraft variants for the PLAAF over the next year, along with several Ilyushin Il-78 refueling tankers. China is likely a prospective market for Russian defense subsystems for the next seven to eight years, by which time its aerospace-defense sector will essentially be autonomously capable of producing any integrated military system. China will then compete with Russia for what remains of its customers in the global defense market.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington and Moscow sources also report that on this and on another of the ticklish items on the Bush-Putin agenda, Iran, the Russian president is confronted with tough dilemmas.
Beyond the agreements on nuclear arms limitation and Russia's expanded role in NATO decision-making, Bush needs an assurance of Russian intelligence cooperation in any military actions against Iraq - and, if necessary, against Iran, Syria and the Hizballah in Lebanon too.
Above all, he hopes to persuade Putin to finally halt construction of the Iranian atomic reactor at Bushehr, now it its final stages, and bring home the hundreds of Russian scientists and engineers helping Iran develop the 1,800 km-2,000 km (1,100 mile -1,200 mile) range Shihab-4 missile.
He will present the Iranian peril as a cause of deep concern for stability in Central Asia, arguing that if Moscow helps Tehran acquire a nuclear arsenal and long-range missiles, Iran will be in a position to wipe out the US-Russian investment in Central Asia and the Caspian region. Their joint interests will be squeezed in a pincer movement - from Iran in the east and from China in the north.
All the US efforts since 1994 to dissuade the Kremlin from providing Iran with nuclear aid and high technology have been unavailing. Bush will now confront Putin with his moment of truth.
Meanwhile, our military sources say the Iranians are girding for trouble. Ten days ago, they fortified the Bushehr complex's defenses. US and Israeli satellite photographs show the deployment of additional batteries of surface-to-air missiles and five more missile boats, raising to 11 the number of missile boats moored there.
[Sometimes analysts think too much about too little. Should the US decide to destroy any Iranian facility it chooses, there is precisely zero that Iran can do to stop the United States. It will not matter an iota that Iran has stationed X more SAM batteries and Y more missile boats to defend a target. As for Taiwan, when the cost of defending Taiwan becomes too high for the US, it will simply turn a blind eye and let Taiwan go nuclear, as it did with Israel and South Africa. So discussions on how the Chinese threat to Taiwan is increasing or not increasing are actually quite irrelevant. China will not be able to take Taiwan by force, and that's all there is to it. Editor]
Return To Top May 27, 2002
May 26, 2002
DebkaFile on Pakistan's Missile Test
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir
An American View of the India-Pakistan Face Off May 25
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 24, 2002
Joint Statement of India-U.S. Defense Policy Group
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 23, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Operation Condor and the British Press May 22
DebkaFile on Pakistan's Missile Test
Your editor finds this story intriguing.
First, India has explicitly said that Pakistan's missile test means nothing and is simply part of its developmental program. So India certainly does not consider the test as a war provocation.
Second, India has had good relations with Iraq in the post-colonial era. It benefited from big Iraqi construction contracts before the Gulf War, and had a sizeable air force training mission there. The Indian people have remained highly sympathetic to Iraq.
Your editor does not claim to be knowledgeable about everything India does simply because he is an Indian, but he is willing to wager that absolutely the last thing an Indian government would do is to attempt to tie Iraqi intelligence with Pakistan's ISI, and Pakistan's President with Iraq's President. The implication is that Pakistan is passing missile technology to Iraq, and so the US must clamp down on Pakistan. India could care less if Pakistan is passing missile technology because Iraq is a friend, a secular and moderate Islamic state in a region populated by religious fanatics.
India's position on other people's missiles and nuclear weapons has been straightforward and without hypocrisy, something that is very unusual in Indian foreign policy. It believes everyone is entitled to their missiles and nuclear weapons, including Pakistan. This policy does not, incidentally, extend to Pakistan's efforts to procure conventional weapons from overseas.
If this makes no sense, don't worry. After seeing how India is handling the latest terrorist provocation, readers may be a step closer to agreeing with their editor. He has always said very little his government does about Pakistan makes any sense.
It's also not clear what technology Pakistan has to pass, since its missiles are from China and North Korea. These two countries would surely rather reap the benefits of passing the technology themselves.
The real provocation is DebkaFile's story, and your editor has absolutely no idea what DebkaFile hopes to gain from it. He welcomes enlightment.
From DebkaFile.
Pakistan's medium-range missile test on Saturday, May 25, was conducted the day after Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee went off for a weekend rest in the hills, hinting he might give Pakistan another two months to crack down on Muslim militants stirring the flames in Kashmir. The nuclear-capable Ghauri missile, the first of a test series lasting till Tuesday, flew 900 miles, far enough to reach deep inside India. Announcing the launch, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf told a religious gathering in Islamabad marking the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed: The missile showed "total accuracy". It hit the target, he said, intoning Allah-o-Akbar, three times.
He also declared: "We don't want war, but we are ready for war."
From Manali, in the Himalayan foothills, Vajpayee urged world governments to press Pakistan to crack down on cross-border terrorism, saying India had waited far too long for Pakistan to act. He said he had written to leaders of France, Russia and the United States to put pressure on Pakistan.
Both India and Pakistan are on a war footing, with more than 1 million troops glaring at each other across their border, as tension in the disputed Himalayan state of Kashmir continues to accelerate. The nuclear-armed powers have been locked in a military standoff since the December attack on India's parliament in New Delhi, the friction aggravated by an attack on May 14 by Islamic bands on the Kaluchak Indian army camp in Kashmir, in which 34 people were killed, mostly soldiers' wives and children. Since then, cross-border shelling has killed dozens in divided Kashmir, sending hundreds fleeing from their homes.
In St. Petersburg, Russia, the concerned Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin both turned to Musharref with a demand to ease tensions. Bush demanded that the Pakistani leader keep his January promise to crack down on Islamic militants staging attacks in Kashmir. Putin invited Musharraf and Vajpayee to a peace conference next month in Moscow. China's foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan phoned his Indian counterpart to urge the "highest degree of restraint".
DEBKAfile reports from its sources in New Delhi that Indian intelligence has been directed by the prime minister to scour the Middle East and the Persian Gulf for every scrap of information linking Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein with the Pakistani president, and Iraqi military intelligence with Pakistan's Inter-Services-Intelligence agency. These findings, the Indian government intends to put before the US government as a lever for forcing Musharraf to clamp down on Muslim extremists operating in Kashmir. If that does not work, India will resort to military action.
DEBKAfile's sources quotes Indian circles as alleging that hundreds of al Qaeda Arab fighters are among those assailants. These Muslim terrorists are said to be roaming round the valleys of Kashmir ever since the first thaw in the mountain passes in early April, sheltering in caves. Indian troops have picked up many of these fighters, astonished to find a large number of Egyptians and Saudis, who confessed under interrogation that they had received their orders, destinations, money, weapons and ammunition from former "Afghanistan desk" officers of the Pakistani SIS.
This intelligence has been passed from New Delhi to Washington.
Thus far, the US president has not obtained an Indian undertaking to confine any military action to Muslim rebel and paramilitary bases inside Kashmir alone. Indian military leaders are eyeing bases inside Pakistan itself near the Kashmir frontier - or even deeper inside the country.
As for Pakistan, Musharraf informed Washington that he would hold his army down to a limited military response to an Indian offensive, only if India does not step out of the borders of Kashmir. But if India strikes inside Pakistan proper, Pakistan would wield its nuclear might against military and strategic targets inside India.
The Indian leader countered with a warning that if Islamabad fires nuclear weapons against Indian targets in Kashmir - or anywhere else - India would unleash the full might of its nuclear arsenal against Pakistani territory - destroying large parts of the country.
Return To Top May 26, 2002
Indian Troop Strength in Kashmir
Often one comes across a figure of 750,000 for India's troop strength in Kashmir. The implication is a huge army of occupation is holding down the Kashmiri people.
The three-quarter million figure is one of more enduring myths of national security affairs. It was originally promoted by Pakistan. Now, Pakistan has been at war with India since 1987, and has a perfect right to put out whatever propaganda serves its purpose. Orbat.com sees no sinister plot in the constant repetition of this figure, most recently by the famous Indophobe, the Canada-based Eric Margolis. What Orbat.com does see is a community of astonishingly lazy and ignorant "experts" who either write for the media or are quoted by it.
The first thing that should set off alarm bells is that India's army has about 1.1 million troops. To accept 750,000 in Kashmir would mean 70% of the entire army is in Kashmir. Seeing as 8 of India's 34 divisions are normally stationed in Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, we can straight away toss the figure out.
In the mid-1980s, when the JKL theatre was peaceful, India's Northern Command was already the biggest of India's five geographical commands. It had 350,000 troops, or one of three men in the army. This was understandable, given the terrible logistic situation and the political importance of holding on to every square kilometer of ground.
Of the eight divisions, 3rd Division was deployed against China and had nothing to do with Pakistan. In the XV Corps area, 19 and 28 Divisions had eight brigades between them. XVI Corps had 25, 10, 26, and 29 Divisions, and 39 Division could be considered a command reserve. The corps had 19 brigades, including two armored brigades.
Pakistan had four brigades in Ladakh, and its 12, 19, and 23 Divisions, directly facing Kashmir, had 13 brigades. 8 and 15 Divisions, facing Jammu, had seven brigades, plus there was an independent armored brigade in the Sialkot sector. So Pakistan had 25 brigades to India's 27, and for a number of reasons, this actually meant an advantage to Pakistan.
Now, within 12 to 26 hours Pakistan could bring an additional force of one armored and three infantry divisions against Kashmir. These were its 7 and 9 Divisions in XI Corps, and 6 Armored and 17 Divisions in its I Corps. Reinforcing Indian troops had to come from distant stations, requiring 3 to 10 days to reach, and having only the narrow Pathankot bottleneck as their line of communication. This why India had to - and still has to - reinforce the JKL theatre at the first hint of war. In late 2001, for example, an additional five divisions were sent.
But we digress.
In addition to the regulars, India - just like Pakistan - had a number of border battalions on the frontier. In India's case this was probably another 50,000 troops counting the China front, for a total of 400,000 in the JKL Theatre. Of these men, something like 370,000 were exclusively committed to Pakistan. Since Kashmir was at peace, none of these troops had anything to do with internal security.
In the 1990s comes the Kashmir insurgency. India moved in an additional division on a permanent basis. It also moved in 30,000 counter-insurgency troops, the newly raised Rashtriya Rifles. Additional army battalions were sent - at times amounting to as many as 25,000 troops. And additional paramilitary troops and armed police were sent, amounting to another 40,000.
The true figure deployed to counter insurgents was, then, about 125,000 troops, and not 750,000. We cannot count the regular forces even though they are regularly on anti-infiltration duty because they were there before the insurgency and are required to protect the frontier even in conditions of total peace. The number inducted into Kashmir fluctuated, of course, with the ebb and flow of the insurgency. For example, in the first half of the 1990s, an additional division was temporarily in the theatre. If, however, we take 120,000 as the current figure, we will not be far off.
Of course, this figure ignores local police. But why should it not ignore them? The local police are present anyway, even though the numbers have been increased because of the insurgency.
In our opinion, even 120,000 additional regulars and paramilitary forces are four times too many. The reason for this high figure is that India has adopted a policy of total passivity. It does nothing to get at the infiltrator bases. Very few helicopters are allotted, so the force walks except in the Valley, where it travels the few roads that are available in vehicles. Indian security forces are stationed at every bridge, every power plant, every TV transmitter, every police station etc etc, essentially waiting to be attacked. Yes, the security forces do launch preemptive search operations when they receive information about infiltrators. Given the high mountains, the thick forests, the primitive communications systems, particularly at the paramilitary level, the total absence of modern surveillance devices, and the lack of helicopter mobility and firepower - aircraft and artillery are not permitted for concern about civilians - this is nearly a hopeless job. This story, however, is another story.
For now, we ask our readers to keep the figure of 125,000 additional regulars and paramilitary as being the true figure in Jammu and Kashmir on anti-insurgent operations.
Return To Top May 26, 2002
May 25, 2002
An American View of the India-Pakistan Face Off
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 24, 2002
Joint Statement of India-U.S. Defense Policy Group
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 23, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Operation Condor and the British Press May 22
First casualties of a increasingly hostile MediaMay 21
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise May 20
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather May 20
An American View of the India-Pakistan Face Off
Forwarded by Amitav Dutta, from Stratfor.com as published in
Worldnetdaily.com
New Delhi is sending signals that it is
serious about launching retaliatory
attacks against Pakistan - whether
that means strikes against militant
camps in Pakistani-controlled
Kashmir or full war against its nuclear
neighbor.
This is triggering another crisis - in
Washington - which is precisely what
India wants.
As tensions rise along the
India-Pakistan border, Indian Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has
said there is no chance he will engage
in talks with Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf.
Artillery exchanges have increased,
and India has diverted at least five
ships from its East fleet to the Arabian
Sea - a move similar to actions during
the 1999 Kargil conflict. Meanwhile,
Pakistan is pulling troops off the
Afghan border and redeploying them
to the border with India.
Tensions between the South Asian
rivals have been high since a
December 2001 attack on the
parliament building in New Delhi,
which India said was carried out by
Pakistani-backed militants.
Washington's continued intervention
through coercion, pressure and
promises has kept tensions from
boiling over into full-scale war.
But New Delhi has been dissatisfied
with Washington's apparently lax
attitude in dealing with Islamabad,
citing Musharraf's inability - or
unwillingness - to crack down on
militants operating through
Pakistani-controlled Kashmir.
Washington, however, has
understood that Musharraf must
maintain a balance between his
assistance to the United States and his
need to refocus the energy and
attention of Islamic militants away
from Kabul and Islamabad.
The current situation is very different
from the 1999 Kargil conflict, which
ended after then-Pakistani Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif recalled the
militants from the border after a visit
to Washington.
In 1999, Pakistan's military, the Inter
Service Intelligence agency and
Kashmiri militants were all operating
on a relatively similar wavelength;
when Sharif called for a withdrawal,
all three factions obeyed. Musharraf,
however, has only limited control
over the ISI and even less influence
with the militants.
New Delhi is quite aware of the
problems Musharraf faces, but it sees
this time as the near-perfect
opportunity to finally strike out at
Kashmiri militants and teach its
unruly neighbor a lesson.
Washington needs Pakistan's
cooperation to continue the hunt for
al-Qaida and, more importantly, to
keep al-Qaida from finding a
sympathetic area in which to regroup
and plan new operations.
New Delhi can use the threat of a
major conflict - perhaps even of
nuclear war - to leave Washington no
room to assuage Musharraf's
sensitivities. India reasons that if
Musharraf cannot handle the
militants, then Washington must.
Yet the United States, despite its
influence, cannot give Musharraf the
strength to crack down without
risking a serious backlash from within
Pakistan. The result would be chaos in
Islamabad, with competing factions of
the military, ISI and Islamic militants
trying to seize control of the country.
Under normal circumstances, a
chaotic Pakistan run by Islamic
militants is worse for India than one
run by a military secularist like
Musharraf, no matter what his
domestic political problems.
But these are hardly normal
circumstances. Washington cannot
allow Pakistan to degrade into
another Afghanistan - but if it is
incapable of stemming the descent, it
will have few options but to carry out
military action against Pakistan. [Emphasis added by Amitava Dutta]
The U.S. government is desperate to
avoid such a course of action, since it
could undermine all of Washington's
currently tenuous relations with
Islamic nations. But for India, there
will rarely be a better opportunity to
ensure that the United States will take
its side in a conflict against Pakistan.
All India needs is a good enough
reason to justify an attack on Pakistan.
Given Islamabad's limited ability to
control Kashmiri militants, that may
not be far off.
Return To Top May 25, 2002
May 24, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 23, 2002
Joint Statement of India-U.S. Defense Policy Group
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 23, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Operation Condor and the British Press May 22
First casualties of a increasingly hostile MediaMay 21
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise May 20
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather May 20
India and Pakistan Face Off May 24, 2002
Forwarded by Orbat.com executive editor Johann Price
Three views on the general
Pramit Pal Chaudhuri writing in the Hindustan Times.
The story so far. India has convinced the West that it will take military action if Pakistan doesn't curb infiltration. In response, the West is arm twisting Pervez Musharraf to do the needful. Now Musharraf is quietly saying Pakistan can't take on India without the West, so it's time to pack up the jehad and go home.
India seems in sight of victory. But twists and turns abound. The facts listed above fit a number of scenarios, not all of them sugar and spice.
Scenario one: Musharraf accepts defeat but still needs others to agree. He has told his cabinet and national security council that infiltration must end. But there is no evidence he has gotten the corps commanders to subscribe to this view. And they are the powers behind the throne. The question: Can he persuade them?
Scenario two: Musharraf is just playing for time. The West is pressing him because it believes India will jump the gun. By making reasonable sounds, he may hope to ease the squeeze. With extra time, he can bring counterpressures into play. One, n bend the West as its military ops against Al Qaeda move into Pakistan. Two, he can wreck the Kashmir assembly polls through assassination rather than infiltration. If the elections are ruined, infiltration becomes a moot point.
Scenario three: Musharraf is testing India's response. He likes to say India failed to respond to his January 12 speech. By spreading the word he is ready to curb infiltration, he may be hoping to see whether India will offer him dialogue. If not, he can tell the West to lay off.
The only certainty: Neither the US, India or Europe is certain which scenario is right.
Indian PM writes to Bush; India has no faith in President Musharraf
Please see The Times of India.
Pak army deploys missile batteries along Line of Control
Source: www.jalnews.com.
Pakistan has deployed medium range ballistic missile batteries all along the Line of Control (LoC), in almost all sectors from Akhnoor to Poonch, while rushing in more troops from one corps to reinforce the ranks of 10 and 30 corps, during the past 72 hours.
Highly-placed sources said here on Thursday afternoon that `strategic units' of the Pakistan army are engaged in deploying these batteries all along the LoC and in advantageous positions to enable the optimum utilisation of their firepower.
Meanwhile, about 1,000 soldiers from [I Corps], which is the `strike corps' stationed at Mangla, have been deployed across the LoC by the Pakistan army during the past fortnight. A huge convoy of Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) and trailers, carrying heavy weapons across the LoC, were sighted by the Indian troops, sources informed.
To avoid the detection of these convoys, Pakistani regulars opened heavy fire on the forward Indian positions using 82 mm mortar shells and heavy machine guns (HMGs), at Jhangar, Laam, Kalaal in Nowshera sector, at Pallanwala and Pargwal areas in Akhnoor sector and at Mendhar and Gambhir areas in Poonch sector while deployment was on. Thereafter retaliatory cross-border firing was reported from these areas at irregular intervals.
The deployment of missile batteries by the Pakistan army is bound to escalate the prevailing tension along the LoC where heavy firing during the last few days has taken a heavy toll on Pakistani soldiers and their armoury, sources said.
However, it was not immediately known whether Pakistan has deployed Shaheen-I or Shaheen-II missiles along the LoC but `strategic units' were reportedly deploying the batteries.
A similar troop build-up took place during the 1971 Indo-Pak war when Pakistan had amassed troops on the `Chhamb corridor'.
[We remain disturbed by the exceedingly poor local reporting from the region. For Pakistan to deploy its MRBMs near the Line of Control is complete foolishness. One thousand soldiers from a corps equal one or two battalions and is no great reinforcement of any kind. Editor.]
Return To Top May 24, 2002
Joint Statement of India-U.S. Defense Policy Group
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, from the Indian Embassy in Washington DC.
The India-U.S. Defense Policy Group met 20-23 May 2002 in Washington,
DC. U.S. Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Douglas Feith hosted
the meeting and Defence Secretary Dr. Yogendra Narain led the Indian
delegation.
In the past year, guided by direction from Prime Minister Vajpayee
and President Bush, India and the United States have charted a new
course in their bilateral relationship. This course reflects
appreciation on both sides of the importance of the U.S.-India
relationship in building stability and security in Asia and beyond.
This new course entails rapid growth in cooperation on defense and
security matters. In a matter of months, the U.S. and India defense
establishments have translated the broad vision for the relationship
into action. No fewer than a dozen separate groups have met to map
out a purposeful path for the U.S.-India defense relationship.
The DPG last met in December 2001. A second meeting within six months
reflects the ambitious agenda agreed to in December to accelerate the
pace of U.S-India defense cooperation. At the December DPG, both
sides set out to accomplish something significant. They have achieved
results. These include:
.. combined naval patrols in the Strait of Malacca
.. resumption of defense trade, beginning with the "Firefinder"
radar sale
.. combined special forces airborne exercises in Agra
.. U.S.-India Ballistic Missile Defense workshop in Colorado
Springs
.. signing of a General Security of Military Information
Agreement to facilitate cooperation in defense technology
These activities are a practical implementation of the ideas
developed during the last DPG.
The two sides emphasized the importance of the DPG and other
bilateral exchanges in coordinating approaches to security issues in
Asia and beyond. They discussed a broad range of such issues,
including how to enhance prospects for peace and stability in Asia,
strengthen counter-terrorism efforts, and improve the security
environment in Afghanistan, including reconstruction efforts and
building the Afghan National Army.
They reaffirmed their commitment to work together to prevent
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery
systems. To this end, the two sides agreed to hold further
consultations in the coming weeks on the threat such proliferation
poses to their common security interests.
The two sides reaffirmed the contribution that missile defenses can
make to enhance cooperative security and stability. They decided to
hold a future missile defense workshop in New Delhi and agreed on the
value of pursuing a missile defense requirements analysis for India.
The Indian delegation accepted invitations to the June 2002 missile
defense conference in Dallas, Texas, and the June 2003 Roving Sands
missile defense exercise.
They agreed that terrorism and state support for terrorism remains a
major threat to the security of their two countries. In this context,
they noted the success of Operation Enduring Freedom and the broader
war on terrorism, and condemned the recent upsurge in terrorist
attacks against India. They agreed that an end to terrorism is
critical to ensuring a future of peace and stability in South Asia
and around the world. They also reiterated their determination to
continue the task of eliminating Al Qaeda and other terrorist
organisations and entities.
The United States and India have demonstrated progress in military
cooperation aimed at enhancing mutual capabilities in combating
terrorism, including joint research and development of technologies
for meeting this threat. They highlighted the importance of the
ongoing Special Operations Airborne Exercise in building
interoperability between U.S. and Indian armed forces, and agreed to
conduct further exercises. The two sides agreed that in the coming
weeks their representatives would address counterterrorism equipment
requirements for India's special operations forces.
The two delegations approved a range of activities proposed by DPG
subgroups responsible for plans for cooperation, including:
.. Specialized training programs and joint exercises to be
carried out by the armed services of the two countries during the
next year.
.. Developing a defense supply relationship, including through
the Government-to-Government Foreign Military Sales program. The two
delegations agreed on the need to work closely for speedier approvals
of export licences in the United States.
.. Resumption of technical cooperation in defense research,
development and production, following the meeting of the Joint
Technical Group in New Delhi in early March.
They also noted shared interest in continued cooperation in and
support for UN peacekeeping operations. India has accepted the U.S.
invitation to participate in the multinational peace operations
exercise in Bangladesh in September 2002 and has agreed to cohost
with the U.S. Pacific Command a Peacekeeping Command Post Exercise to
be held in New Delhi in early 2003. The sides agreed that
peacekeeping and coalition operations are important tools to enhance
stability around the world. In this context, they discussed the
negative impact of an International Criminal Court (ICC) on such
operations. They agreed on the serious inadequacies of the ICC and
underlined the importance of cooperation between the U.S. and India
to oppose its applicability to non-Parties, as such applicability
would be an assertion of jurisdiction beyond the limits of
international law.
In addition to the areas of cooperation outlined above, the DPG has
set a course for cooperation in additional areas, including
consequence management in response to weapons of mass destruction,
humanitarian relief, cyberterrorism, and environmental security.
Secretary Narain also called on U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Myers, and Deputy
Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Stephen
Hadley. These meetings reflected the emphasis both sides place on the
growing bilateral defense relationship.
The two delegations agreed to hold the next meeting of the DPG in New
Delhi in early February 2003.
Return To Top May 24, 2002
May 23, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 23, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Operation Condor and the British Press May 22
First casualties of a increasingly hostile MediaMay 21
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise May 20
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather May 20
Mystery Afghan Illness Diagnosed May 19
Operation Condor Update May 19
India and Pakistan Face Off: Update May 23, 2002
Today's update is the work of editor Johann Price. We begin with his informal comment made in an e-mail conversation because in your editor's opinion, it sums up the situation well:
We have the farce of the IN moving five ships and announcing it will take a week (reminds me of the task force launched to retake the Falklands paddling along while the Americans talked to the Argentineans?). Most revealingly, we had DM George Fernandes say a few days ago that military action before September was unlikely. There have been quotes from military personnel supporting the need for time to prepare. I suspect that Vajpayee will allow Straw and Armitage to caution him in exchange for some sort of token from Pakistan. The Indians seem to be edging towards meaningful action in winter rather than symbolic action here and now. Of course, the pessimist could just as easily argue that this is simply the latest act of procrastination.
Troop Movements, from the Press Trust of India
New Delhi, May 20: Over the past three days, Pakistan is reported to have moved the major part of its strategic reserve corps based in the frontier town of Peshawar to bolster its defenses facing India on the Firozpur-Ganganagar sector.
The move, according to Army sources, is part of major troop re-deployment undertaken by Pakistan all along the Indo-Pak border as also along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir where two to three new mountain divisions had been inducted.
Army sources said that the bulk of the Pakistani troop concentration including its armoured and mechanised formations was still on the Jehlum-Chenab corridor facing India's Chhamb and Shakargarh bulge sector and along the Chenab-Ravi corridor facing the Lahore-Gurdaspur sector.
Meanwhile, a report from Jammu said Pakistan's army build-up had assumed a threatening posture with induction of three divisions in Pakistan occupied Kashmir facing the Drass-Siachen axis, Kupwara-Uri axis and the Naushera-Poonch sector.
The report said Pakistanis had massed the troops along the strategic Haji Pir pass, one of most widely used infiltration routes in Jammu and Kashmir.
[These areas are precisely where India would attack if it planned to limit a war to Kashmir. If Pakistan has moved in three divisions into the above areas, it balances India's move of 2-3 divisions to the theatre, eliminating any margin of superiority India might have had. We do not need to remind readers that in the high mountains, parity of forces with both sides the equal of the other in quality of battalion/brigade/division leadership, training, morale, equipment, and fighting quality of troops means very little progress is possible without first engaging in prolonged and heavy combat to grind down the adversary. Neither side has the logistical or manpower replacement capacity to fight such a war, nor would the world idly stand by while both sides have at each other for months, and nor do the political structures of either country have the ability to ensure a long war. Editor]
Army Asked to Consult War Book
Rediff.com.
Union Home Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani said the army has been asked to consult the 'war book' and the merchant navy has been brought under the operational command of the navy.
The 'war book', a highly confidential document, contains the day-to-day records of past wars including battle plans, strategies and actions of both sides, and is maintained at the headquarters of all regiments.
[ the reporter doesnt have the foggiest idea that war book is the comprehensive civil defence manual. Still the activation of the war book, the subordination of the coast guard to the navy and all paramilitary forces in Kashmir to the Army suggest that this time the Indians may be serious. Johann]
Indian Navy Reinforces Western Fleet
Various sources, including The Hindu, AP, and AFP.
Eastern Fleet ships, placed under the administrative and operational control of the Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command (ENC), have sailed out for cross-coast deployment to augment the force levels on the west coast ``in view of the prevailing situation''.
Highly-placed naval sources told AFP..."A Russian-built destroyer, an indigenous frigate and three corvettes are steaming into the Arabian Sea from the Bay of Bengal"
The warships set sail two days ago and are about 500 nautical miles from the Pakistani port of Karachi near Bombay, officials said. India carried out similar shifting of warships during a 1999 conflict and in the 1971 India-Pakistan war.
UK To Reduce Number of Diplomats in Pakistan, Asks Britons to Leave
news.bbc.co.uk.
The UK is to reduce the number of diplomats it has in Pakistan - and urged Britons to leave the country - because of threats to the safety of British interests in the country.
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw's announcement followed news that the British High Commission in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad was closing all its visa offices because of threats.
Mr Straw urged UK nationals to consider leaving Pakistan - and said that for the time-being there would be no routine visa service for people wanting to visit the UK.
"We will begin reducing the number of staff and dependents in Pakistan with immediate effect," Mr Straw said.
"We are now advising against all but essential travel to Pakistan and then only where there is a compelling reason and where security is assured.
"We are also advising British nationals in Pakistan to consider leaving."
The numbers of diplomats, staff and dependants attached to the British High Commission in the capital Islamabad will be cut from around 210 to about 80.
The Deputy High Commission in Karachi will see a cut from 36 to 10, while the office in Lahore, which currently has about 10 Britons attached to it, will close.
[While terrorist threats may be a major concern, it is unlikely to be the only impetus for th e closure of visa offices. If that were so it is likely we would have seen the complete closure of the Karachi rather than the Lahore consular offices. It is more likely that Foreign & Commonwealth Office anticipates a massive asylum and visa stampede once hostilities between India and Pakistan commenced. The FCO now seems to believe that such conflict is quite likely. Johann]
Vajpayee's speech to troops in Kupwara
The Hindustan Times
In a tough message to Pakistan, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Wednesday declared that the time had come to wage a "decisive battle" against cross-border terrorism.
Addressing troops barely 25 kms from the Line of Control, Vajpayee said there was a limit to India's tolerance of the proxy war.
"India is forced to fight a war thrust on it and we will emerge victorious. Let there be no doubt about it," he told cheering jawans and officers in the presence of Defence Minister George Fernandes, state Governor GC Saxena and Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah shortly after flying into the valley from Jammu.
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Wednesday bluntly told Pakistan that there was a limit to India's tolerance of the proxy war it was waging.
"Nobody should think that the threshold of our tolerance has no limit," he told troops not far from the Line of Control on the first day of his two-day visit to the Kashmir valley.
A challenge has been thrown to India and "we accept it", the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister said the time has come to fight a decisive battle. "The world understands that we have been wronged but they are not coming out with their views openly. Hence we have to defend ourselves," he said adding "we are ready for that."
"My arrival here is indicative of something. Whether our neighbour understands it or not, whether the world takes note of it or not, but the history will record that we will write a new chapter of victory... There is no doubt about it," he said.
The Prime Minister said after the Kargil conflict, Pakistan had lost the courage to engage in a direct conflict with India.
"It has now evolved a new strategy of proxy war by making use of mercenaries and selling the dream of heavenly rewards to the so-called Jehadis," he said.
"But there was a limit to our tolerance to put up with such designs," he said.
Prime Minister said in 54 years of independence India had to face attacks from Pakistan several times but on each occasion, Pakistan was humbled.
"They also tried to snatch our territory, disrupt democratic process and cause communal disharmony but did not succeeed. Our forces did their duty commendably and they had to return empty handed, "Vajpayee said.
Vajpayee said India wanted peace and development and desired to make the country a progressive nation.
"We want to fight poverty and disease," he said.
Referring to the Kaluchak killing, he asked "what kind of fight or struggle is this where mothers and children are massacred?"
Vajpayee said Pakistan after repeated defeats had adopted the path of proxy war.
"After defeat in Kargil, the neighbor's courage to face Indian troops face to face has broken and it has resorted to proxy war and is sending hired militants," the Prime Minister said.
The enemy has devised a new instrument of proxy war, Vajpayee said adding they are killing innocent people.
"I saw the situation yesterday", he said and asked, "In which conflict children and women are targetted?"
He said that the Kaluchak attack took place at a time when the Army personnel were posted at borders and their families were behind in their homes.
Stating that Kargil was fresh in the nation's memory, Vajpayee said, "we thought that repeated defeats may have led them to the right path but when we were talking of peace, of abandoning enmity and living like good neighbours, they surreptitiously attacked us from the snow-clad mountains."
"However, the way our troops evicted them from every inch of the land was appreciated the world over. They were not even able to take back the bodies of their dead. We, however, gave them a decent burial because we had no enmity with dead soldiers, the Prime Minister said
"We know how to respect even our enemies but that should not be seen as our weakness," he said.
The Prime Minister said India won a decisive victory in the recent battle at Kargil by giving a befitting reply to the enemy and regaining every inch of the invaded area.
The enemy, which has lost to us in every direct conflict, has now resorted to proxy-war by sending in hired mercenaries into Jammu and Kashmir to indulge in barbaric acts which was reflected in the recent massacre of innocent wives, children and relatives of the jawans guarding the borders, he said.
"We respected even their dead soldiers, whose corpse were abandoned by the enemy, during the Kargil conflict by giving them a decent burial. But that should not be construed as our weakness," he said.
India Threatens 'Decisive Fight' Over Kashmir
news.yahoo.com
"Whether our neighbor understands this signal or not, whether the world takes account of it or not, history will be witness to this. We shall write a new chapter of victory," (the Indian Prfime Minister) told soldiers in Kupwara, northern Kashmir.
"Be prepared for sacrifices. But our aim should be victory. Because it's now time for a decisive fight," he said in a speech which was broadcast live nationwide on state television.
....But a government statement, after a joint meeting of Musharraf's cabinet and the policy-making National Security Council (NSC), said Pakistan would continue its "moral, political and diplomatic support" to what it called the Kashmiri struggle for self-determination.
Nice Summary of the situation - Johann
Associated Press.
``In the immediate future, we are not going to launch an operation,'' said J.N. Dixit, former foreign secretary and ambassador to Pakistan. ``Of course, public opinion and our soldiers are tired of all this. They want the government to do something. But there are many factors.''
Dixit said he expected the government to wait for the visits of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw later this month before deciding on a course of action. [Emphasis mine - Johann]
``This is a crisis the world cannot ignore,'' Straw said.
Straw also announced Britain was recalling some of its diplomats from Pakistan and was advising other Britons in Pakistan to leave. Straw said terrorist threats from Islamic extremists prompted the diplomatic withdrawal.
The Foreign Office said his announcement was not ``directly'' linked to the threat of war between India and Pakistan.
Shortly after Vajpayee arrived in Kashmir on Tuesday, masked gunmen assassinated a leading Kashmiri peace advocate during a ceremony marking the murder of another independence leader 12 years ago.
Abdul Ghani Lone, a moderate, soft-spoken Muslim separatist leader, had sought dialogue with India to bring self-determination to Kashmir, the only Muslim majority state in predominantly Hindu India. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
Americans are concerned enough to think it was worth issuing a comment on - a signal quite clearly aimed at the Pakistanis. [see usinfo.state.gov,
Powell Condemns Lone Assassination as "Terrorist Act"
Pays tribute to Kashmiri leader's courage and democratic values.
Straw says Indo-Pak war a real possibility
Daily Jang of Pakistan
LONDON: Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said on Tuesday that there was a "real possibility" of Indo-Pak war and he would visit the region next week to try to ease tensions between the nuclear powers.
"The possibility of war between India and Pakistan is real and very disturbing," Straw told reporters. "The international community is watching events with mounting concern. This is a crisis the world cannot ignore." Straw stressed that while he would do all he could to ease tensions, there was no "pre-cooked" peace plan.
The British Foreign Office said that Foreign Secretary Jack Straw would travel to the region early next week in a bid to help ease rising tensions between the two over the disputed territory of Kashmir. The foreign secretary said that no one was under any illusion about the serious consequences of a war between the two nuclear powers.
"India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons and a capacity to use them and have talked publicly about a possible nuclear exchange. "It is, therefore, a conflict with potentially devastating consequences for the people of both countries and of profound concern to the whole of the international community," he said. "There is a pressing need for an end to terrorism, a lowering of tension and then dialogue," he added.
Prime Minister Tony Blair's spokesman said: "We obviously take the situation there extremely seriously. "It is important, as we have said many times, that both sides do everything they can to de-escalate tension and we are concerned about the military mobilisation on both sides of the border."
"We urge both sides to show restraint, as we have done in the past and it is obviously important that support for terrorism in whatever form stops, to ensure political dialogue can take hold," the spokesman added.
Abdul Kader Jaffer, Pakistan's High Commissioner in London, told BBC radio that the two countries were "very close" to war. "And, therefore, it is necessary for all our friends to get together, bring sanity where there is total insanity. There is a one million deployment of armed forces on Indian-occupied Kashmir." Asked whether Pakistan could rule out the use of nuclear weapons, he said: "Well, as you know we were not the first to develop a nuclear weapon, it was India. We had to follow."
Indian Government Careful to Send Conflicting Signals
The Hindu.
NEW DELHI MAY 22. Even as the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, today talked about a decisive battle to end the proxy war thrust on the country by Pakistan, two critical meetings of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) have been scheduled.
The first one is to be held tomorrow evening immediately after Mr. Vajpayee and the Union Home Minister, L.K.Advani, return from Srinagar, and the second one the next day.
Though the Government seems to be moving step-by-step in the direction that indicates war, it is careful enough to send t conflicting signals. Yesterday in Jammu Mr Vajpayee did not see any sign of war clouds, but today he talked about a "decisive battle'' and asked his jawans in the forward areas to be "ready for sacrifice.''
Indus Water Treaty may go: PM
By M.L. Kak of the
Tribune News Service.
The government is seriously examining the issue of scrapping of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan as part of the diplomatic and economic offensive Delhi has initiated to force Islamabad to stop aiding and encouraging cross-border terrorism.
An indication to this effect was given by the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, to senior functionaries of the state government and political leaders who called on him during his 16-hour stay here. Mr Vajpayee flew to Srinagar this morning.
In an interaction with the editors of Jammu-based newspapers here last night, the Prime Minister said the government was examining as to how the waters of the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum which were covered under the treaty, could be stopped from flowing into Pakistan. [My bolding - first statements by central government figures on record. Johann]
During his detailed discussion with the Governor, Mr G.C. Saxena, the Chief Minister, Dr Farooq Abdullah, senior functionaries of the Army, including Lt-Gen J.B.S. Yadava, Corps Commander, and civil and police officers, stress was laid on stepping up counter-insurgency operations against the militants operating within the state.
The Prime Minister agreed to the suggestion of the Chief Minister that aerial support be provided to the troops engaged in flushing out terrorists in the hilly areas.
Mr Vajpayee also agreed to strengthen the Village Defence Committees and was repeatedly reminded that sanction was required for sending additional companies of paramilitary forces to the state for taking care of the grey areas following withdrawal of troops from the depth areas of the state for deployment on the LoC and the IB.
When the BJP delegation led by Mr D.K. Kotwal met the Prime Minister here last evening, Mr Vajpayee posed a question: "What should be done to check military related violence?" The BJP members sang in a chorus: "Declare war against Pakistan."
Mr Vajpayee heard the suggestion patiently, but did not comment. The same suggestion was given by leaders of the Congress, the BSP and other political parties.
In his meeting with 15 delegations of political leaders, border migrants, Kashmiri Pandits and leaders of commerce and industry, the Prime Minister adopted the role of a listener instead of a commentator.
The plight of border migrants and refugees from Pakistan, PoK and the Kashmir valley figured in his discussions with different political leaders. Mr Vajpayee nodded his head while accepting the Congress and the BJP demand for proper rehabilitation of these refugees.
The Congress leaders, including Mr Mangat Ram Sharma, demanded full citizenship rights for these refugees. Mr Ayub Khan, also of the Congress, told the Prime Minister that the Indus Water Treaty be scrapped forthwith. These political leaders expressed deep concern over the security situation and referred to the killing of Lone, saying that it indicated that the security scenario was grave in the state.
Mr Vajpayee evinced keen interest when one BJP leader informed him that there was need for screening a section of border villagers in the Jammu sector because some of them had been working as agents of the ISI. He assured the BJP delegation that the matter would be examined seriously.
Return To Top May 23, 2002
May 22, 2002
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Operation Condor and the British Press May 22
First casualties of a increasingly hostile MediaMay 21
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise May 20
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather May 20
Mystery Afghan Illness Diagnosed May 19
Operation Condor Update May 19
America Goes To War: Three Stories From The Anti-Terror Campaign May 18
India and Pakistan Face Off: May 22, 2002
Moderate Kashmir Rebel Shot Dead
From the Times of India.
All-Party Hurriyat Conference leader Abdul Ghani Lone was shot dead by unidentified uniformed men during a public meeting in Srinagar on Tuesday.
The incident took place at around 6 pm during a meeting of about 5,000 people to observe the 12th death anniversary of former Mirwaiz of Kashmir Maulvi Mohammad Farooq, father of senior Hurriyat leader Umar Farooq, at Idgah ground in old Srinagar city.Lone, 70, was rushed to the Soura Medical Institute where he was declared "brought dead". He was shot several times from a close range in the chest and stomach. His body had been riddled with eight bullets.One bodyguard of Lone, Mushtaq Ahmed, was also killed and another seriously injured in the incident. At least seven other people were injured in the attack.
Shabir Ahmad, a Hurriyat functionary, who was present at the meeting, told Times News Network on telephone: "The function had almost finished and many people had already left. Lone saab started to leave and we were walking behind him. That's when the gunshots began and there was a stampede. Lone saab was shot."
Other senior Hurriyat leaders were also present at the meeting, where hundreds had gathered, Ahmad said. According to agencies, there were two assailants in state police uniforms. The attackers also lobbed a grenade which failed to explode. Lone's body has been brought to his Rawalpora residence along with the body of his gunman, where thousands of people assembled after hearing the news. Lone had only recently said he was "not not averse to talking with India or anyone else, and Kashmir, like any mature political struggle, should be innovative in its strategy." The death was a serious blow to the moderate voice in the 23-party separatist conglomerate.
Times of India Editorial Comment on Lone's Murder
Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone's killing has been timed with the Prime Minister's visit to the state. Lone was seen as one of the Hurriyat leaders closest to the Indian authorities, and was believed to be agreeable to elections in the state. He had been an MLA in the 1970s. The leader was also seen to be close to the US. His dastardly killing today could be a terrorists' message to the Indian government, and a warning to other moderate leaders in the Hurriyat Conference.
Satellites, 30000 men to guard PM on J&K visit
Extracts from the Times of India.
The Indian Prime Minister arrived in Kashmir May 22, 2002. This report is from May 21.
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's three-day visit to Jammu & Kashmir will witness one of the biggest security exercises ever undertaken by the Indian armed forces.
Over 30,000 personnel belonging to the armed forces, the paramilitary and the local police will be exclusively involved in various capacities in what is going to be an unprecedented vigilance operation.
There will be 24-hour air combat patrolling involving at least two aircraft. Radio- and electronic-jammers will be used extensively, and hilltops along the PM's route have been secured against sniper fire. In addition, road-opener parties have been deployed on a large scale to clear mines.
In addition, satellite surveillance will monitor any suspicious movement in the area. "There has never been such a security cover in the past,'' says a senior government official.
According to sources, the Vajpayee's immediate security network has been expanded from the usual three tiers of the SPG, NSG and the ITBP to a six-tier one.
The Prime Minister, in all probability, will be using his official aircraft - a Boeing 737 - to do most of the travel. Intelligence agencies have, in fact, strongly advised the PM against the use of a helicopter, which might be vulnerable to shoulder-fired missiles.
Army in war mode, withdraws from Gujarat
From the Times of India.
The armed forces are sparing no effort to crank up the war machine following the latest round of heightened tensions along the Indo-Pak border. The authorities are now contemplating ''recalling'' all personnel who are on leave and ''holding all military courses in abeyance'', say top-level sources.
In a related development, the Army on Tuesday announced the withdrawal of its troops engaged in law and order duties in Gujarat for redeployment in ''their operational locations''. Two Army brigades, with around 6,000 troops, had earlier been placed under the civil administration in the state for internal security duties.
It was after the December 13 Parliament attack that the three Service HQs had issued orders to cancel leave and all ongoing courses, except for the prestigious Staff College course, in the build-up to Operation Parakram, the mobilisation of more than half-a-million troops and strike formations along the border.
But the orders were later relaxed as the forward deployment became prolonged. ''Now, the decision to recall all personnel from leave is again being considered. This will, however, not affect those on leave on extreme compassionate grounds,'' said a source.
The IAF too is maintaining ''a high state of operational readiness'' to tackle any exigency. Most of the fighters and other air assets moved forward after the December 13 Parliament attack are back in position after undergoing servicing in batches at their ''mother bases'' in the rear.
MiG-21 Bis squadrons, virtually grounded after a jet crashed in Jalandhar on May 3, are also being cleared for operational flying and training sorties.'
Return To Top May 22, 2002
May 21, 2002
Operation Condor and the British Press
First casualties of a increasingly hostile Media
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise May 20
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather May 20
India Ponders Retaliation Against Terrorist Camps in Pakistan May 19
Mystery Afghan Illness Diagnosed May 19
Operation Condor Update May 19
America Goes To War: Three Stories From The Anti-Terror Campaign May 18
Operation Condor and the British Press
Our editor Johann Price comments on recent British press reporting on Operation Condor. The American press bug of superficial reporting and analysis seems to be spreading rapidly. First, the reports:
Marines' chief under fire for Afghan 'farce'
By Sean Rayment, filing on May 19, 2002, in the Daily Telegraph.
Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, was facing mounting pressure to sack the Royal Marines' commander in Afghanistan last night, following accusations that the mission has become a mess.
Senior MoD officials claim that Brig Roger Lane has lost the confidence of politicians, senior defence officials and junior members of his brigade headquarters.
Relations between senior British and American commanders have also become increasingly strained after a series of disagreements over the tactics being used by the marines to hunt down al-Qa'eda and Taliban fighters.
The growing lack of communication between the two camps is believed to have been behind the failure to inform Gen Tommy Franks, the head of the United States military, about Operation Condor, the latest Royal Marine mission in Afghanistan.
The general only discovered the operation had begun after watching a television news bulletin on CNN 20 hours after it was launched.
One senior MoD official said last night: "Brig Lane is a man out of his depth and should be sacked. The whole operation is quickly becoming a farce. I don't think there would be too much of a furore if he should go, in my opinion it would be a one day wonder.
"The marines have a morale problem and the only way to get rid of it is to get rid of the man at the top. Brig Lane has lost the confidence of his men, his junior commanders and his tactical decisions look increasingly like the actions of a man desperate for some success."
The Royal Marines have spent more than three weeks deployed on three separate operations in the mountains of south eastern Afghanistan but they have so far failed to fire their weapons in anger.
The doubt over the brigadier's future began to emerge after MoD officials in London last week were forced to publicly contradict claims that Royal Marines were engaged in a big operation against al-Qa'eda and Taliban.
Brig Lane had demanded that his men were given the task of providing a quick reaction force after Australian SAS troops became involved in a fire fight with suspected al-Qa'eda even though the majority were exhausted from a 16-day operation in the Afghan mountains and were officially on "operation down-time".
That rebuke followed another blunder by Brig Lane 10 days ago when he said the war in Afghanistan would be over in a matter of weeks, a view directly opposed to that of Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, who said the war would be long and tough.
The Royal Marines' commander has also been accused of over-hyping the limited success of Operation Snipe.
Despite "sound intelligence", not a single member of the Taliban or al-Qa'eda was identified during the 16-day mission and a big arms dump blown up by the Marines was reported to have been owned by a warlord allied to the coalition forces.
It has also emerged that one of the reasons for the failure of Operation Snipe was a refusal by Major-Gen Franklin Hagenbeck, the US force commander, of several British requests for a blocking force of American troops from 101st Airborne Division to plug two valleys as the Marines moved through them.
Some British commanders were privately furious about the decision which they believed would have allowed any potential enemy force in the area to escape.
Other officers, however, cited the general's decision as an indication of a breakdown in relations between the two officers.
By the middle of last week Brig Lane appeared to be losing the media battle too, with the tension between the British and international media and the Marines' commander reaching breaking point.
Brig Lane has continued to insist that Operation Snipe had been a success and had dealt a "significant blow" to al-Qa'eda.
He said last week: "It is true to say that we did not encounter the enemy during this operation. From a strategic point of view this is an encouraging sign."
He added that al-Qa'eda had been forced to abandon "one of the most strategically well-placed and easily defended locations in Afghanistan".
Mr Hoon yesterday also defended Brig Lane's conduct on Operation Condor when he said: "I think it is very, very important to stress that this is not . . . some sort of war by safari. This is specifically a reaction to particular information."
A reporter from the Daily Mirror was declared persona non grata after writing a series of articles which British officers at Bagram described as "damaging to the morale of the troops".
That incident followed a series of heated arguments with almost all British journalists who have been reporting on the war from Bagram airbase.
Yesterday an ex-Labour defence minister became the latest person to claim that the war in Afghanistan had been "hyped up".
Doug Henderson, the Labour MP for Newcastle Upon Tyne North, said: "There certainly is a suspicion that . . . there is a need to hype up the success of the operation when probably not a lot has been achieved," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
Follow up story from the Daily Telegraph
Britain's armed forces are spinning above their weight.
Johann Price's Commentary
The second story helps explain the sensational claims of the first
The British and Americans are reduced to what might be called war by safari, driving around the watering holes in the hope of spotting some big game they can shoot. This complicated situation needs careful and cautious presentation. Instead it has been favoured with all the tabloid gifts at New Labour's command.
"These troops are being deployed to take part in war-fighting operations," said Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, when he sent in the Marines two months ago. "We will be asking them to risk their lives. It is important the House be under no illusion about what this might involve."
It certainly is. Because the illusion these exciting comments helped to foster - that this is all about the body count - has undermined what is so far a perfectly sensible and even modestly successful operation.
The intrepid journalist in effect admits that the British press is taking disproportionate revenge on the marines and the government for a failure to produce juicy combat stories. Unfortunately, he still shows marked economy with the truth when it comes to the issue of who actually created the hype. The government's statements were reasonable, meant to prepare everyone for the possibility of casualties coming as it did after the intense combat at Shah-e-Kot, and to answer Conservative ciritcism that there was no role for the Marines in Afghanistan. No one asked the press to start broadcasting Wagner's The Ride of the Valkyries.
The fact is that aggressive patrolling is essential if Al Qaeda is not to filter back and re-establish its infrastructure and control over the local population. It is essential to detect and destroy arms caches, because they are being used in the probing hit and run attacks we've seen. In the difficult terrain of Eastern Afghanistan the terrorists would make very poor time and would be far more vulnerable to detection if they had to carry everything they needed. Unlike Coalition forces, they are not inserted by helicopter.
After Shah-e-Kot CENTCOM realised it needed more troops on the ground, especially with the 10th Mountain Division due to rate back to the US, and a formal request was made to the UK. The government can not talk in any detail about the complementary operations in Pakistan's Waziristan area, and the press bypasses that entirely. Also fails to note that the winter vomitting bug outbreak is over and most soldiers have been returned to duty.
Typical journalistic foul up is the failure to mention that Humint regarding the areas of operation come from the CIA's paramilitary officers, while Imint comes from a variety of platforms. These sources provide the actionable intelligence that determines success and failure in such fluid situations. Nor have they bothered to explain that the chain of command arrangements make the kind of things they're suggesting impossible. There are frictions, but there are *always* frictions and disappointments in coalition warfare. Frictions between personalities, priorities and governments, but these are sorted through in order to get the job done.
A certain pattern of British military reporting has established itself since the Balkans. It starts with telling the public that we are too wonderful for words, then reports that ominously suggest all is not well, and after a few months or years (this time its weeks) shrilly screams that our leaders have no idea what we are doing , we have to get out now, the coalition is falling apart, none of the equipment works, etc, etc. The same thing happened in Bosnia, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Macedonia, and those who really care about our armed forces are sick and tired of reading this rubbish.
British Marines Come Up Empty-Handed, U.S. Troops Frustrated As Backups
This article from Stars and Stripes completely contradicts the Electronic Telegraph by asserting that the Marines deployment was fully authorised. However, they suggest that Major General Hagenbeck lacked a good reason to sideline the company strong Quick Reaction Force from the 101st Airborne.
Major General Hagenbeck is the land forces commander in Afghanistan. All non-Afghan coalition ground forces of *any* nation committed to Op Enduring Freedom come under his operational control. There is an *established* chain of command which is taken seriously by all forces. National contingents also keep their national governments informed. If they have a problem that can not be resolved with Hagenbeck their governments get in touch with the Pentagon.
There was a gap between when the Australians disengaged and Condor was launched - the bigger an op the more time it takes to assemble and prep a force. Based on available information and prior experience, Hagenbeck made a decision to deploy 4 companies and their artillery battery (45th Commando Battle Group) instead of one (from the 101st). While one might have deployed faster, four could search and secure a larger area. They would do better if the Al Qaeda concentration chose to stand and fight. The Marines and London general were also itching for a chance to really come to grips with Al Qaeda. Hagenbeck made a command decision.
The Al Qaeda group may have been smaller than believed and covered more ground than expected in that intervening period. We'll see. But in the end success or failure has very little to do with the national origin of the troops. We have a team. In military operations as a commander you are some one who is required to make *decisions* in a timely fashion. They might turn out to be right or wrong, but you keep moving. You don't dither and you certainly don't waste time with should haves and could haves when you have a job to do. You continue to move forward with the lessons learned, because you *never* have all of the information you would have liked to make a 'perfect' decision. However, at the end of the day you remain responsible for the consequences of your decisions.
[There we have it. The press has nothing to do and is getting no easy stories. So it makes up stories, telling everyone there is a crisis which they - the press - have unearthed. Since the vast majority of people buying a newspaper have no time to read this rubbish, the only people reading it are the press themselves and a few persons like us at Orbat.com. Sometimes your editor wonders who are the bigger idiots: the journalists who write this rubbish, or people like himself who waste time actually reading and refuting the rubbish. Editor]
Return To Top May 21, 2002
First casualties of a increasingly hostile Media
By our colleague Richard M. Bennett
The repeated failure of the Royal Marines anti-terrorist actions in Afghanistan including the latest 'Operation Condor', to achieve any tangible results has played a significant part in the growing row in Britain over their continued presence in that country.
The fortuitous timing of the announcement of a new posting for Brigadier Roger Lane, the Royal Marines field commander has raised suspicions of him being lined up as a convenient scapegoat. The Brigadiers rather prickly and distinctly old fashioned persona also did little to endear him either to his US colleagues or a media conscious Ministry of Defence.
In the usual 'kiss of death' for any military career, Brigadier Lane was publicly defended by a senior British politician only on Sunday when Geoff Hoon, the Minister of Defence, said he had "complete confidence" in the Royal Marine commander and played down persistent rumours that he faced mounting pressure to sack him. Hoon dismissed as "nonsense" reports that the mission to Afghanistan had turned into a farce under the Brigadier's leadership, in which Afghan allies had their ammunition dumps destroyed and claims of British involvement in firefights against Al Qa'ida and Taliban fighters had turned out to be nothing more than military ballyhoo.
There are many in Parliament and the British media who while conceding that Brigadier Lane's style of leadership may not be ideal, freely admit that he was given an unenviable task it what was in reality a politically motivated operation with little or no military justification. It has all the hallmarks of a typical political blame limitation exercise, 'hanging a field commander out to dry' and ensuring that despite vigorous denials emanating from the Labour government, Brigadier Lane will be held to blame for failing to provide Mr Blair, hot on being seen as a Thatcher-style 'War Leader', with another famous victory to share with his buddy in The Whitehouse. Lane will be succeeded by Brigadier Jim Dutton, who is currently working as a liaison officer to US Central Command in Florida and who is reported to have already built up a good relationship with the US General Tommy Franks, in overall command of the Coalition forces in the Persian Gulf area.
The knives are also out at Langley
The first major effects of the intelligence disaster of 9-11 are soon to be felt by a nervous CIA as the replacement of Cofer Black as Director of the CTC or Counter-terrorism Center is confidently expected to be only the first of a major series of dismissals and sideways promotions aimed at changing once and for all the 'risk avoidance' culture firmly embedded at the Langley headquarters. Black has had a long and it is claimed, a 'highly successful' career in covert operations for the CIA and played a role in France's capture of Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, a.k.a.Carlos the Jackal, once the world's most wanted terrorist, but Black is believed to have failed to have won the approval of the President's 'war cabinet'.
The Counter-terrorism Center has doubled its staff since the start of the War on Terrorism, however the influx of enthusiastic, but inexperienced officers from other sections of the intelligence community has done little to improve the overall effectiveness of a largely desk bound organization wedded to the use of high technology. The appalling lack of good analytical or linguistic skills amongst a high percentage of staff has ham-strung the CIA's efforts to counter the threat of international terrorism and no amount of budget increases or additional officers can be expected to overcome the inertia of bad management, poor leadership and a chronic lack of first-rate human intelligence sources.
The 'blood-letting' inside the United States intelligence services will probably lead eventually to a wholesale change of leadership and a return to the interventionist style of the 1950's and 1960's not only in the CIA, but also the FBI. Intelligence analysts suggest a slow move away from the blanket reliance on the NRO's satellites and the worldwide communications monitoring and interception networks of the NSA, towards a more balanced use of a wide variety of intelligence sources including human espionage and moles placed within hostile services and organizations. However, the slim chances of quickly achieving such penetration of dedicated terrorist groups will mean that the CIA may be blind to much of the international threat to the USA for many years to come.
[Mr. Bennett's article nicely complements Mr. Price's comments. Is this war about anti-western terrorists or is about the press? The press, like an ADHD child, insists on being the center of attention, and wields power without responsibility. After September 11, 2001, many worried about the US's ability to stick to a job everyone suspected was going to be long, tough, and thankless. The world is familiar with the American trait of being engaged for a few months before losing interest. Yet, the government and the people of America show every sign of settling in for the long haul. Its not particularly helpful for the west that the press, and those who make their careers using it while pandering to it, are now the ones showing a lack of engagement or concern for the real war. No one says the government is perfect and above reproach. To insist, however, that the shallow, ignorant, narcissistic, publicity-seeking and immediate-gratification-demanding denizens of the press have to be the guardians is a pathetic joke, but one of immense consequences for all of us. Editor]
Return To Top May 21, 2002
May 20, 2002
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather
India Ponders Retaliation Against Terrorist Camps in Pakistan May 19
Mystery Afghan Illness Diagnosed May 19
Operation Condor Update May 19
America Goes To War: Three Stories From The Anti-Terror Campaign May 18
Pakistan Asks US To Avoid Raids in Tribal Area May 17
Pakistan Arrests Terrorist Leader May 17
Likud and Hamas Agree: Yankee Go Home May 16
Joint Indo-US Military Exercise
From our editor Johann Price.
BALANCE IROQUOIS is a joint Indo-American special forces exercise being held in Agra at the Parachute Regiments training centre from May 14-28. This has been incorrectly described in the media as the first joint army exercise in 39 years. In fact at least one round of BALANCE IROQUOIS and two rounds of the airborne TEAK IROQUOIS had been held prior to the Indian nuclear tests and the subsequent US suspension of military cooperation.
Forces involved on the American side involve roughly a company of Green Berets from the 1st Special Forces Group(Airborne) and two MC-130Hs flown by crews from the USAF's 1st Special Operations Squadron stationed in Okinawa. The focus of the ongoing two-week exercises at Agra is joint parachute training and mutual familiarisation with basic equipment, procedures, tactics and military culture. The next round will be held in the Indian North East, and will revolve around counter-insurgency in mountain and jungle environments.
It should be noted that defence diplomacy (or military to military contact as the Americans refer to it) with a given country is the responsibility of the appropriate geographic theatre command. In the case of India that means Pacific Command, while Pakistan falls under Central Command. Thus most Indo-American exercises will involve American forces assigned to PACOM. While this is logical (and saves the theatre commander the trouble of having to balance the two) it is also an indication of where Indian and American security interests converge and diverge to the greatest extent. The resumption of joint exercises initiated in the 90s is a natural progression towards closer relations between the worlds largest and most powerful democracies after the bump in the road that was Pokhran.
Return To Top May 20, 2002
India invokes treaty with Russia as war clouds gather
By Vijay Shukla of the Press Trust of India, writing from Moscow, as appears in Hindustantimes.com.
As war clouds gather over the sub-continent, there are clear indications of India invoking provisions of the 1993 friendship treaty and Strategic Partnership Declaration of 2000 with Russia, calling for urgent security consultations between the two countries.
Diplomatic and Russian official sources here confirmed that shortly after the meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security in New Delhi on Saturday, Indian ambassador K Raghunath called on Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov for consultations.
It is believed that Raghunath passed on convincing proof of Pakistan's direct involvement in the last Tuesday's Jammu attack and shared other sensitive information with Russia.
The Indo-Russian bilateral pacts signed during President Boris Yeltsin's India visit in January 1993 and President Vladimir Putin's New Delhi visit in October 2000, provide for urgent consultations between both the countries in case of a threat to the security of one of the contracting parties and close co-operation in jointly removing this threat.
Though no official confirmation of resorting to these bilateral security mechanisms has been made, the Kremlin officials said that a security dialogue between Moscow and New Delhi at various levels on core issues of their national security and combating international terrorism was an ongoing process
Return To Top May 20, 2002
May 19, 2002
India Ponders Retaliation Against Terrorist Camps in Pakistan
Mystery Afghan Illness Diagnosed
Operation Condor Update
America Goes To War: Three Stories From The Anti-Terror Campaign May 18
Armitage to Cool Indo-Pakistan Tension May 17
Pakistan Asks US To Avoid Raids in Tribal Area May 17
Pakistan Arrests Terrorist Leader May 17
Likud and Hamas Agree: Yankee Go Home May 16
India Ponders Retaliation Against Terrorist Camps in Pakistan
Reader Gerry Hol forwards this article from the Indian daily newspaper the Statesman.
Camps in artillery sights
One
military option the Centre is reportedly considering
against Pakistan is concentrated
artillery fire on terrorist camps along the
Border.
According to reports available
with the Centre, there are about 65 camps within
10 km of the LoC. Some of these
have been vacated, but the others are
functioning and can easily be
hit. Artillery fire can reach 20 km inside Pakistan
or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir,
even more. During the Kargil operations, the
Bofors guns hit targets 40 km
away. This was because of the rarefied air in the
heights. The problem with
artillery fire is that it is often inaccurate, experts
said.
But there is agreement that
artillery fire on the camps could disrupt militant
training activities.
There are two kinds of terrorist
camps: Larger camps situated deep inside
Pakistani territory; Small camps
which are closer to India.
There are three camps at Nikail,
Dabbi and Kot Katera - just opposite Rajouri - housing 50-60 militants. There
are three camps at Lanjot, Kathar and Goi.
Around 40-50 militants receive
training in camps at Hazira, Gopalpur, Bandi
Gopalpur, Dunig and Madarpur.
These camps are very close to Poonch and are
about 5 km from the border.
There are camps in Sarai, Kalu de Dheri, Bayawali,
Belawali and Hillan di Gali for
another 75-100 terrorists. In Aliabad, there are nine
camps for 90-100 terrorists.
In Khuiretta, opposite Rajouri,
5 km from the LOC, there are four camps. In
Samani (opposite Naushera) there
are five camps.
There are camps in Chhamb,
Putwal and Sialkot, all close to the Jammu sector.
In Chhamb there are two camps.
There are three in Putwal and two in Sialkot. All
these camps are close to the
LoC.
In the Uri sector, there are
four terrorist camps in Chakothi and
Tithwal for 80-90 terrorists,
also close to the LOC.
There are another seven camps in
the Zura-Athmuqam area and three in the
Neelam Valley where nearly 100
ultras receive training.
Some camps are situated deep
inside PoK. These can also be targeted, if
necessary. There is a camp in
Palandri opposite Poonch about 25 km from the
LoC and two in Rawalkot. Four
camps at Bhimbar are located 20 km from the
LoC. Camps at Mangla are also
situated close to the LoC. Al-Qaida and Taliban
men have been sighted at these
camps which train 75-80 terrorists. Camps at
Muridke and Muzaffarabad are
located deep in the Pakistani territory.
A problem with possible
artillery strikes on the camps is that they're close
to
civilian areas and could result
in civilian deaths which Pakistan could turn into an
issue.
75 camps of 'al-Qaeda' fighters targeted
By Vitusha Oberoi Reference in.news.yahoo.com.
India is planning to punish Pakistan with limited military strikes on terrorist camps across the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in retaliation for Tuesday morning's Jammu massacre.A final decision on the limited strikes hinges on today's meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).
Home Minister L K Advani has also indicated that an all-party meeting may be convened, as Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee would want to take Opposition leaders into confidence before taking a final decision.Indications of impending Indian strikes came even as the two countries exchanged heavy fire in the Samba, Kathua and Ramgarh areas of Jammu yesterday.The Vajpayee government, which received a unanimous mandate from Parliament yesterday for any action against Pakistan, is aiming to direct the country's military might against the 75 training camps which Home Minister L K Advani says have spawned in PoK.
According to highly placed sources, the Indian Army would attack these camps without crossing the LoC. During the Kargil war, defence forces had reportedly identified a vantage point from where these camps could be destroyed without India actually crossing the LoC.
At today's CCS meeting will be the nation's top political leadership as well as the top brass of the defence forces, including the chiefs of the army, navy and airforce.
An indication that a conflict is on the anvil was given in the Lok Sabha yesterday when Vajpayee did not intervene in the daylong debate on the Jammu massacre. The home minister told the House that Vajpayee refrained from speaking as he may address the nation on television after a firm decision is reached at today's CCS meeting.The CCS will study inputs provided by the home ministry on 75 training camps across the LoC. According to Advani, as many as 2,000 al-Qaeda terrorists have settled in tents across the LoC following the US action against the outfit in Afghanistan.
Advani said that while he could not give details of the action planned, he could only say that "we are aware the whole country is ready. These inputs will be studied by the prime minister and our army top brass and a decision will be taken''.
The army told the government on Thursday that it needs only 48 hours to launch an operation once a political decision is taken.
Official sources asserted that given the different statements of the prime minister, home minister and defence minister on the Jammu massacre, "some action'' against Pakistan was inevitable.A conflict became all the more inescapable following the parliamentary debate yesterday when, without exception, all parties urged the government to take stiff action against Pakistan. Several speakers pointed out the uselessness of the diplomatic sanctions put in place by India against Pakistan after the December 13 Parliament attack.
What is goading the government the most is the fact that those killed in the Jammu attack were close relatives of army personnel. The government is worried about the demoralising impact such killings may have on the forces, which have been on the borders in a state of preparedness for the past five months.
For security and tactical reasons, no one in the government was prepared to spell out the exact action India might take, but a senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader said, "Something is bound to happen at the border."
The US cautioned both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, but India has already expressed its "deep disillusionment" with the US after Pakistan was made a partner in the international coalition against terrorism, even though it is linked to terrorist strikes in Jammu and Kashmir.
[Lets try and be realistic here. If Pakistan has not vacated the camps which India is said to be targeting, we'd be very surprised. The camps consist of tents, a firing range, other makeshift facilities. Blow a camp to bits and it'll be back in business in less than 48 hours. Is Pakistan supposed to sit back and do nothing after Indian artillery opens up? They've always struck back, and so far, India has had the worst of the exchanges. Part of the reason is the lack of counter-battery radars, which India has started to address seriously with initial purchases from the US, a mere 30 years after Pakistani plans to acquire the then latest radars became known. Our guess is more Pakistani and Indian gunners are going to be killed than terrorists. This whole exercise is so pointless that - as our editor Johann Price has pointed out in emails - there seems to be no alarm whatsoever in Washington or London at the impending Indian action. The Indians have expelled the Pakistani ambassador; expect the Indian ambassador to be put out. It takes 5000 years of civilization to come up with such genius ideas. Those of our readers who have not had the benefit of such old, vast, and profound civilizations may count themselves fortunate. Editor]
Return To Top May 19, 2002
Mystery Afghan Illness Diagnosed
Forwarded by our editor Johann Price.
MoD press release, 18 May
The condition of those affected by the enteric-like feverish illness at Bagram generally continues to improve. No individual is now assessed as very seriously ill. Thirteen personnel continue to receive medical treatment either at Bagram, or in the UK and Germany following evacuation. Ten other soldiers have now been discharged and returned to duty. Tests conducted on personnel returned to the UK suggest that the illness is almost certainly the Winter Vomiting virus.
[In fact it appears that it might have been brought from the UK rather than picked up locally.
There was an outbreak in Scottish hospitals earlier this year. The virus is highly contagious but almost never life threatening- Johann ]
In an earlier email, Mr. Price said:
It should be noted that combat forces have only had one member diagnosed with symptoms of the infection that has been detected in some 38 British troops at Bagram. Some 300 troops are currently in quarantine, many from 34 field hospital and with strict reporting rules the infection appears to have been contained. The outbreak might have begun when the field hospital provided treatment to a local. It is possible that the same undiagnosed disease that killed 40 Afghans (already weakened by severe scurvy) in a village in Ghowr province earlier this year. A full epidemiological investigation is taking place. It should be noted that the Soviets often found as much as 40% of their combat forces in Afghanistan incapacitated by waterborne diseases such as Hepatitis.
Return To Top May 19, 2002
Operation Condor Update
From our editor Johann Price:
As of May 18 all 4 maneouver companies of 45 Commando & its supporting 105mm battery, engineers and recce elements have been deployed in the mountains of Paktia by RAF and US Army Chinooks to fix, engage and destroy forces that an Australian SAS Regiment patrol came into contact with May 16.
Close Air Support sorties are being flown by AC-130s, US Army Apaches and USAF A-10s out of Bagram, initially called in by the SASR after it was engaged by heavy machine gun and RPG fire. At this stage it has not been publically confirmed that the forces being engaged are Al-Qaeda.
Local Afghans are playing the usual game of casting doubt on the meaningfulness of coalition operations, and these doubts are being loudly broadcast by the media. At orbat.com we feel that it is unlikely that a firefight and search and destroy mission would continue for 18 hours if the combatants were in fact armed 'neutrals'. Journalists fail to convey just how common radios and satellite phones are among armed groups in Afghanistan. If the coalition forces were hammering 'friendlies' they would certainly know by now.
We will attempt to balance our readers desire for more information with coalition authorities decision to limit information in the interest of operational security and the lives of the men involved. Al Qaeda, before we forget, used email as a tactical communication system in Shah-e-Kot.
Return To Top May 19, 2002
May 18, 2002
America Goes To War: Three Stories From The Anti-Terror Campaign
Armitage to Cool Indo-Pakistan Tension May 17
Pakistan Asks US To Avoid Raids in Tribal Area May 17
Pakistan Arrests Terrorist Leader May 17
Likud and Hamas Agree: Yankee Go Home May 16
Terrorists attack Jammu Army camp, 34 killed May 15
India Says Pakistani Crackdown Failing May 14
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report May 13
America Goes To War: Three Stories From The Anti-Terror Campaign
US Special Forces Arrive in Yemen
Extract from an Associated Press story from www.military.com.
U.S. soldiers have begun arriving in Yemen to train Yemeni troops in the war against terrorism, Pentagon officials said Thursday.
About 30 Army Green Berets are in Yemen and expect to begin the training in a week or two, one official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Several dozen more trainers are to arrive later and expand the project.
The training is similar to what U.S. forces are doing in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, where the government is battling Muslim militants in the Pankisi Gorge, and in the Philippines, where hundreds of American soldiers are helping train forces to fight the Abu Sayyaf terrorist organization.
US Troops To Stay 2 Years In Georgia
Extract from an Associated Press story in www.military .com.
American troops landing in Georgia in the next few days plan to remain in the former Soviet republic for almost two years as they train key units of the Georgian armed forces, the commander of the U.S force said Thursday. The Pentagon has said the training will help the Georgian military "address the situation in the Pankisi Gorge." The training program commander told reporters, however, that he and his officers will not visit the rugged Pankisi area, just 21 miles by air from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.
The training mission "will complement other counterterrorism efforts around the globe and will increase stability in the Caucasus," the Pentagon has said. But it has said U.S. troops will not participate in any military operations in Georgia.
The government in the Black Sea nation of 5 million people remains at an impasse with its breakaway northwestern region of Abkhazia, nine years after fighting a war with Muslim separatists there. In the Pankisi Gorge, spillover from the anti-Russian insurgency in Chechnya heightened tensions as thousands of Chechen refugees crossed into the area in recent years. Moscow says Chechen rebels are among them.
The program begins officially May 27 with the opening of a 70-day period of training for Georgian army staff officers, conducted by 70 U.S. Army personnel..
Some 150 American trainers will then embark on four consecutive 100-day tactical training programs for four specialized Georgian army units, including special forces and commando battalions. [Approximately 2,000 troops total.]
Under the $64 million program, the Georgian military also will be supplied with small arms and ammunition, some uniform items, and communications and other equipment.
Afghan Force Maintains High Profile Despite Risks
Extracts from a Los Angeles Times story appearing in www.military.com.
Smack in the exposed heart of a scorching ochre plain ringed by rugged mountains, the small compound only one ridge away from terrorist-infiltrated tribal areas of Pakistan defiantly flies the Stars and Stripes on one flagpole and the red, black and green Afghan banner on another.
This dusty, brush-choked U.S. base in southeastern Afghanistan forms a front line for the war's new focus: destroying cached weapons, tracking enemy movements along the border and fostering the peace taking root apace with the sprouting grain fields and replanted orchards. Still, bringing tranquillity to this most troubled corner of Afghanistan is a work in progress. Coalition officers at Bagram air base on Wednesday disclosed the discovery of two more hidden supplies of armaments, including more than 2 million rounds of ammunition, in a hillside cave with a bird's-eye view of the U.S. operations here.
Some of the munitions stashed in caves and culverts throughout the country are being used with apparent intent to intimidate the U.S.-led forces. At least six rocket attacks have been logged here, at the nearby Khowst airfield and across the border in the Pakistani town of Miram Shah, another U.S. Special Forces venue, since enemy fighters retreated in March to their mountain strongholds on the border after Operation Anaconda.
The U.S. compound here is little more than a stone house, a few outbuildings and a sprawling tent village inside a waist-high enclosure of barbed wire. The understated defenses and the calm, if secretive, demeanor of its forces suggest a low assessment of the risks from an occasional missile.
No one has been hurt nor any property damaged, but the potshots have irritated U.S. commanders to the point of their ordering a recent special search-and-attack mission.
That operation here in Paktika and adjacent Paktia provinces failed to flush out any suspected terrorists or even to halt their fire. But a thorough combing of the surrounding high ground did chase the enemy away from the best vantage points, U.S. soldiers say.
Return To Top May 18, 2002
May 17, 2002
Armitage to Cool Indo-Pakistan Tension
Pakistan Asks US To Avoid Raids in Tribal Area
Pakistan Arrests Terrorist Leader
On a Mission to Nowhere May 16
Likud and Hamas Agree: Yankee Go Home May 16
Terrorists attack Jammu Army camp, 34 killed May 15
India Says Pakistani Crackdown Failing May 14
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report May 13
Armitage to Cool Indo-Pakistan tension
By Chidanand Rajghata of the Times of India, writing from Washington.
WASHINGTON: Amid continuing concern about the deteriorating security situation in South Asia, the Bush administration is sending Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to the region to cool tensions between India and Pakistan.
The Armitage mission, expected within the next fortnight, follows the visit to the region of US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca and the tough message India has delivered to her that Pakistan has breached the threshold of India’s restraint.
US officials, while declining to confirm specific details for the Armitage visit, said that the administration intended to keep its attention focused on the India-Pak situation. It will also be the top item on the agenda in the summit meeting between President Bush and Russian leader Vladimir Putin later this month.
“We are taking this crisis very seriously. We don’t need specific intelligence about the balloons going up to see how serious this is,” US administration sources said.
The word in the South Asian diplomatic circles is that Rocca got an earful in New Delhi from an Indian leadership incensed at the American coddling of Pakistan’s military regime despite its egregious transgressions on various counts.
Rocca then called her Secretary Colin Powell to convey the angry mood in Delhi, and Powell’s message to the White House was what set up National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice's call to Principal Secretary Brajesh Mishra and President Bush’s call to Prime Minister Vajpayee.
Vajpayee is said to have conveyed to the US President that as leader of a democratically elected government, he is accountable to the people and there is pressure on him to act against the repeated terrorist outrages being inflicted on India. He bluntly told Bush that India would take “appropriate action” after due deliberation.
Bush empathised with Vajpayee’s situation and promised that his administration would take further steps to lower the tension, suggesting that Washington would put more pressure on Musharraf.
White House officials, who met Indian diplomats after the telephonic exchanges, sought some more time to work on Pakistan but were told that the public mood in India had placed the government in a situation where it was running out of options and excuses not to act.
Even as Rocca flew into Islamabad, reportedly with a far tougher message for Musharraf than was originally intended, alarm bells went off in Washington as India unfurled the awesome majesty - if cumbersome slowness - of its consensual decision making process in deliberations that appeared to presage a military response.
The administration then decided to rush Armitage to the region.
Some officials were in fact surprised that Rocca was sent to the region at all in the first place to handle the crisis given her relative inexperience. But she was given all due respect and even got to meet Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh, who bluntly told her to go and preach restraint to Pakistan.
Instead, Rocca irked New Delhi even more when after landing in Islamabad she praised Musharraf’s role in the war on terrorism, confirming the view in South block that the Bush administration is consistently being suckered by Islamabad and the State Department’s South Asia bureau is manned by Pakistan sympathisers.
However, US officials insist it is important to praise Musharraf in public, strenghten his position, and co-opt him in the war of terrorism while conveying all the tough messaging in private. Washington does not want to risk isolating the military ruler or having him turn his back on the US.
US officials also pointed out that Pakistan had arrested Lashkar-e-Taiba leader Hafeez Mohammed Saeed soon after Rocca’s meeting with Musharraf.
However, Indian officials have told the administration that New Delhi will not accept any cosmetic action and unless Pakistan acts seriously on eliminating training and infiltration of terrorists and acts on its demand to hand over fugitives, its is inviting punitive action.
“If they haven’t realised after all this time that Pakistan is playing a double game, they will never get it,” one Indian official said, pointing out that even the US media had cottoned on to the Pakistani game and was warning the administration about the lies and deceptions of the Musharraf regime.
But the Bush administration is still chary of buying into the Indian line that the Musharraf regime is directly responsible for terrorist atrocities.
Soon after his telephonic talk with Vajpayee, Bush issued a statement saying the “attack was also aimed at destroying opportunities for South Asia to build a future that is more stable, more peaceful and more prosperous," implicitly absolving any official Pakistani involvement.
"The US will not yield in its determination to work with the people of South Asia to fight terrorism and to build a better future," the statement said.
["...alarm bells went off in Washington as India unfurled the awesome majesty ... of its consensual decision making process in deliberations that appeared to presage a military response." Awesome Majesty....Yawn. Can someone wake your editor from his nap when it's tea time? Thanks.]
Return To Top May 17, 2002
Pakistan Asks US To Avoid Tribal Belt
A Press Trust of India story in the Times of India.
ISLAMABAD: Concerned over a possible backlash to the presence of foreign troops in the volatile tribal belt, Pakistan has reportedly asked US forces searching for al-Qaeda activists in its territory to avoid direct operations in these areas bordering Afghanistan.
Pakistani officials conveyed the request that its forces be used instead of direct operations by American troops during talks with US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca here on Wednesday, The News said Thursday, quoting official sources.
The government has made it clear to the visiting US official that Pakistan is ready to extend every possible cooperation in the war against terrorism but the situation in the tribal areas is different as the people could strongly react to the presence of foreign forces, it said.
Two days ago, the government banned public display of arms in the tribal areas. Pakistani forces assisted by small bands of US teams are scouring the tribal areas for al-Qaeda and Taliban militants believed to be holed up there.
The report said American authorities were pushing Pakistan to accept the logic behind land and air operation by the US forces there but the government is not ready to accept such "tough demands" since the tribal people have threatened to wage war against whosoever attacks them.
Return To Top May 17, 2002
Pakistan Arrests Terrorist Leader.
From the Times of India.
ISLAMABAD: The founder leader of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) outfit Hafiz Mohammad Saeed has been arrested by Pakistani authorities, just a day after the deadly terrorist attack in Jammu that claimed 31 lives, allegedly carried out by a LeT group.
Saeed was arrested on Wednesday on charges of planning to create unrest in Pakistan. He was arrested while on his way to Islamabad from Lahore, a LeT spokesman said.
He was taken into custody in January as part of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's crackdown against religous extremism. Lahore High Court had recently released him due to lack of evidence.
Saeed, who figures on the list of 20 terrorists and criminals India has demanded to be handed over by Pakistan, was due to address a rally in Lahore on May 19.
Earlier, LeT had declared closing its offices in Pakistan but carrying out its operations in Kashmir.
LeT is also suspected to have attacked Parliament on December 13 last.
Return To Top May 17, 2002
May 16, 2002
On a Mission to Nowhere
Likud and Hamas Agree: Yankee Go Home
Terrorists attack Jammu Army camp, 34 killed May 15
India Says Pakistani Crackdown Failing May 14
India, US Expanding Bilateral Defense Cooperation May 13
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report May 13
Europeans To Oppose Washington on Arafat May 12
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq May 10
On a mission to nowhere
By Richard M. Bennett of AFI Research.
There appears to be growing concern in Britain amongst both the general public and the media about the course of the so-called 'War on Terrorism' and in particular Britain's part in it. The slightly odd perception currently gaining in popularity is that this campaign has little to do with a genuine terrorist threat and is in reality nothing more than a US 'crusade' to gain ultimate control over the Middle East's vital oil resources and represents some form of right-wing American Bible-belt and Zionist secret agenda to impose their joint will on the region with Iraq as the first of many targets.
It is not helped by the campaign in Afghanistan dragging on with little apparently to show from it so far, apart from deposing one set of extremists with another group from ten years ago and with an equally unpleasant and violent human rights record. The Taliban have melted away into the mountains or across the border into Pakistan quite confident that their time will come again, while Al Qa'ida in one form or another have survived and in many ways are potentially more dangerous than before. Instead of being largely concentrated in the camps of Afghanistan, they are now scattered throughout the world, regrouping and preparing for the next round of terrorist attacks.
Critical intelligence failure
Western intelligence has been shown up for what essentially it has undoubtedly become, a bottomless pit, absorbing billions of dollars annually, but failing its nations security when most vitally needed. The scandal of missed chances, of the failure to take the terrorist threat seriously enough and to act upon such information that was available, the break-down in co-operation with foreign services and the failure to impose even basic security at vulnerable airports has yet to be adequately addressed. To add insult to injury the intelligence community largely failed again once the fighting got under way.
The constant stream of reports suggesting a critical lack of analysis, of human rescues (HUMINT) and a woeful lack of useful intelligence input to US and allied military operations in Afghanistan has barely stopped in the last seven months. The fact that the British Royal Marines should so gleefully blow up a huge ammunition storage area identified by the CIA as a Taliban/Al Qa'ida base, only to discover that it belonged to an Afghan ally nicely highlights a less than flattering impression of the overall effectiveness of the war on terrorism.
Al Qa'ida have survived and are rebuilding
Al Qa'ida or Qa`idat al-Jihad and the other major groups of Islamic Jihad have survived, their command infrastructure is being rebuilt and the great majority of their fighters have avoided capture or death. Their support and financial networks, despite hyped up claims to the contrary are intact and functioning, indeed there is some evidence that they have been expanded into new areas and new terrorist partnerships. The majority of its leaders have escaped and those killed have been replaced by a younger and probably more dangerous generation of terrorists. At times the terrorists look to be running rings around an unimaginative and rather leaden Western response.
The War on Terrorism is drifting into an inconclusive stalemate, increasingly side-tracked by a determination in Washington to settle old scores with Saddam Hussein and other members of the so-called 'Axis of Evil'. It is difficult to see just how this fits in with a proper response to 9-11, unless The Whitehouse seriously believes in a widespread Islamic conspiracy against US interests. There is now a strong suggestion that both Britain and the other European allies are increasingly less than happy with the joint US-Israeli stance on the Palestinian issue and indeed the Middle East in general and Washington would be well advised to take such doubts on board or risk having to take unilateral military action.
Return To Top May 16, 2002
Likud and Hamas Agree: Yankee Go Home
By Michael Crawford of MILNET, forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
In a rare moment in history, the Likud Party and Hamas have strongly agreed on something. The Likud Party, the party of the current Israeli administration, has voted against a Palestinian State. And Hamas, a terrorist organization, which has never been one to be upstaged, says the suicide bombings will continue. With both sides claiming positions that are totally irreconcilable, how can anyone expect to help. In fact, say isolationists, it just proves that the U.S. should never have poked their nose into the fray in the first place.
The positions of the opponents, so the isolationists say, make it clear they not only don't need anyone's help, they don't want it. And some even go as far as to say, they don't deserve it.
Pointing at the U.S. administration's own statements make it clear the U.S. is reluctant to try to mediate when the opponents are dead set against resolving the disputes. Secretary of State Colin Powell has said on numerous occasions the violence must stop before the U.S. will agree to intervene politically. Now with both sides saying "screw that, business as usual", the situation does make it difficult to fathom. Note we said difficult, not impossible.
For what the isolationists have forgotten and indeed anyone who has grown frustrated over the events of the last two years not to mention decades, is that you don't make peace by giving up. You keep plugging away at it until something triggers a movement toward peace instead of away from it. Of course the difficulty in this situation is every move toward peace is countered by the opponents by a giant leap away.
What's It All Mean?
Well, for one thing, Sharon's days as the leader of Israel are numbered. Netanyahu is in position to retake the leadership of Israel. Another event likely to occur, is for Arafat to get the boot as well. If the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority cannot shut the mouth of the leader of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, how can anyone expect Arafat to keep the murderer from sending new suicide bombers in. Every week Arafat proves he is useless and negotiating with him is a total waste of time. Negotiating with a turnip is more productive.
So if the United States is going to help, and indeed, who else can help, then Secretary Powell and Prime Minister Sharon need to make a joint statement on who they will negotiate with -- perhaps its time to embrace a new terrorist leader -- obviously Sheikh Ahmed Yassin speaks for Hamas, the most notorious of the terrorists of Palestinian persuasion. Maybe the gruesome twosome should be dealing directly with him -- obviously the turnip can't. May be a summit between Sharon, Powell, Yassin, and the leader of the Aqra Martyrs Brigade, should meet in Cairo under eye of the real power in the Middle East.
Notice how we also left out the Saudis. Their help is not much better than the turnip.
Or maybe the isolationists are right on this call -- no one is wrong every time. Maybe its time to tell the idiots in the Middle East, "Fine. You want to murder each other for a couple of years? Go Ahead. We'll be back when you want to really stop the bloodshed. We have more important things to do. You remember Iraq, right?"
Stopping Suicide
In a realistic world, you can only do so much. You can grab a friend's arm to keep him from jumping off a bridge. But if he goes home and cuts his wrist in the bathtub, he pretty much negated your noble gesture, yes? This is what Israel and the Palestinians are doing verbally right now. All that is left is for the action to follow the words. Guess what. Stay tuned, the violence will continue, its only a matter of days.
Return To Top May 16, 2002
May 15, 2002
Middle East Peace: A Fading Hope
Terrorists attack Jammu Army camp, 34 killed
India Says Pakistani Crackdown Failing May 14
India, US Expanding Bilateral Defense Cooperation May 13
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report May 13
Europeans To Oppose Washington on Arafat May 12
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar I May 11
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar II May 11
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza May 10
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq May 10
Middle East peace - a fading hope
From our colleauge Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
As Washington and the European nations appear to be drifting further apart on the future of Palestine, whether to attack Iraq, trade and even the future of space-based communications, only historical self-interest prevents a more serious schism from developing. The predominate impression of a United States deeply and irrationally pro-Israel and a Europe still beset with anti-Semitism and a tendency to support the Arab cause is a highly unsatisfactory and a rather glib interpretation of the complicated and intertwined sets of relations and involvement's that determine Middle Eastern policy on both sides of the Atlantic. It is further complicated by Britain's position, seen by some inside the European Union as nothing better than Washington's fifth column, while increasingly taken for granted by The White House as a glorified cheerleader.
None of the squabbling over steel quota's, trade, global warming or the Gallileo project matters a in the Middle East, bar the fact that it furthers reduces the chances of an international consensus on the peace process. However, in reality even this is of little real consequence in the search for a viable solution to the Palestinian problem. For, though ferociously denied in both Washington and Jerusalem, it is undoubtedly a fact that only Israel has the military power to effectively make war and with a major chance of policy in Jerusalem, the wherewithall to make peace. It can be argued that only Israel has the opportunity to offer the concessions necessary to kick-start the negotiations. Arafat has virtually nothing left to concede and has little remaining authority or power to reign in the suicide bombers, particularly after the recent Israeli campaign to destroy his security infrastructure.
Only Israel has the power to make war, and peace
Israel occupies large tracts of Arab land, exploits Arab water resources, has built hundreds of illegal settlements in defiance of the international community and continues to ignore countless UN resolutions. Jerusalem also controls the only effective regional armed forces and has the undeniable support of the worlds only superpower. Against this what actually does Chairman Arafat have to offer, apart from open condemnation of the only means left to his beleaguered people to resist Israel; terrorism.
Would Hamas, Hizbollah and Al Qa'ida or Qa`idat al-Jihad take any notice, bar perhaps assassinating Arafat and any other moderate Palestinian brave enough to follow his lead?
Israel and Israel alone has something tangible to offer negotiations. The return of lands occupied since 1967, the dismantling of some of the illegal settlements, vital water resources and perhaps even the return of some or all of the millions of Palestinian refugees many of whom have languished in sordid camps since 1948. In return for an end to terrorism, acceptance by all the Arab nations of the State of Israel and even more importantly, cast iron guarantees of Israel's future security by the international community led by the USA. For Palestine the prize would undoubtedly be the early prospect of complete sovereignty, a democratically elected government and a major rebuilding of its civilian infrastructure funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
If Israel is unprepared to accept this or something similar then there is simply no realistic chance of peace in the Middle East. Sharon's stunning rebuff by Likud at the weekend would suggest that even if the old General could bring himself to offer a viable peace treaty based on an independent Palestinian State to his old enemy Arafat, he would not retain the support of Israel's biggest political party for long. Sharon must now be even more aware of the former Prime Minister, the hawkish Benyamin Natanyahu hovering in the background ready to take advantage of the first signs of weakness in dealing with either Arafat or for that matter, President Bush.
Time running out for peace in the region
Internationally brokered, but temporary cease-fires will continue to offer the illusion of progress, but merely put off the day of final reckoning. While Israel may indeed be the only source of meaningful concessions, it would be something of a leap of faith for any Jerusalem Government to have the courage to make the concessions necessary under present circumstances unless forcefully encouraged to do so by Washington. Israel deserves and has a right to a future free of the threats of terrorism and invasion, while the Palestinians have an inalienable right to self-determination and a fully independent state.There is little certainty that either will achieve these goals in the near future. Of one thing we can be certain however, if these two ancient Semitic peoples cannot learn to live together, then they will most certainly continue to die together.
It would appear that a genuine peace agreement is not yet in sight nor even just round the corner. Time is however, very definitely running out as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the introduction of effective delivery systems in the region turns any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East into a nightmare scenario that must eventually concentrate the minds of the worlds leaders - hopefully before its too late.
Return To Top May 15, 2002
Terrorists attack Jammu Army camp, 34 killed
From the Times of India. The attack was made on a residential area of an army base and not on an operational military installation as such.
JAMMU: At least thirty four people, including 22 Army men and their family members, and seven passengers were killed when militants attacked a bus and later stormed a nearby Army camp at Kaluchak about 10 km from here, official sources said.
Army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel H S Oberoi said at least 25 armymen were "seriously injured" in the attack carried out by three militants dressed in combat fatigues.
He said the toll could rise as many of the injured were in critical condition.
Scores of ambulances were ferrying the injured from the camp to the nearby Satwari Army hospital.
The militants had opened "indiscriminate fire" on the bus and then stormed the Army camp at Kaluchak, some 15 km south of Jammu, officials said.
Officials suspected the attacks, which began at 6:00 am (0030 GMT), were the work of a fidayeen squad. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
All gates to the army camp were closed and the area cordoned off, as police and commandos came in to track down the militants.
Fire engines also rushed to the spot as smoke was seen coming out of the Army camp.
Schoolchildren were trapped at an Army school near the camp, which houses soldiers and officers of the 196 Field Regiment of the Indian Army.
The passenger bus had been traveling to Jammu from Himachal Pradesh.
A Comment by the Times of India
Today's dastardly attack on armymen in Jammu coincides with the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca. It's apparent that the perpetrators are sending strong enough signals: that cross-border terrorism has not de-escalated, and that President Musharraf himself cannot check it anymore. Put plainly, it's a clear indication to the George Bush Administration that the Pakistani general's ability to influence, and curb, terrorist activity on Pakistani soil is severely limited.
Return To Top May 15, 2002
May 14, 2002
India Says Pakistani Crackdown Failing
India, US Expanding Bilateral Defense Cooperation May 13
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report May 13
Iraq May Opt for the Unexpected May 12
Europeans To Oppose Washington on Arafat May 12
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar I May 11
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar II May 11
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza May 10
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq May 10
India Says Pakistani Crackdown Failing
Writing for the Washington Post, Indian correspondent Rama Laxmi describes how Pakistani infiltration into Indian Kashmir is the same as last year. He quotes sources as saying India now plans to keep the Army on the border at least till fall. A prominent peace activist, Prawful Bidwai, is quoted as saying India's deployment has failed to achieve any purpose. In response,
But officials argue that withdrawing now without any substantive concessions from Pakistan would be politically disastrous for India.
"We have already played our last card by sending our army to the border and placing them on a war posture," an intelligence official said. "Pakistan wants India to blink first. India cannot afford to do that. What if there is a major terrorist strike tomorrow after we pull out?"
This statement neatly summarizes why India is such a joke in the field of foreign policy. By acting as it has in mobilizing and threatening Pakistan but not actually doing anything to Pakistan, India had managed to dig itself into a hole from which it cannot escape.
- India has once again cried: "Pakistan, I am going to beat you!" and done nothing. This has been the standard pattern since the Brasstacks crisis of 1986-87. Who now in Pakistan will doubt that India is a paper tiger?
- India has handed over control of the crisis to Pakistan and no longer has any say in the matter. Since no deployment, and no promises by Pakistan genuine or fake, can stop terror strikes, India is in effect saying it will sit on the border forever because it doesn't want to be seen as blinking. Too bad, because by failing to attack in October and in December and in January, India has already blinked three times. India also has succeeded in handing over control of its foreign policy to a handful of armed terrorists who will dictate events. Since many Pakistani terrorist groups have no interest in President Musharraf's continued well being, the Indian position guarantees there will be a strike, and another, and another, till either the hollowness of Indian pretensions is exposed, or India really goes to war.
- The longer India holds its hand, however, the less chance it has that it can actually strike. Pakistan has that much more time to get prepared, and your editor is informed that that's exactly what Pakistan has been doing. Worse, the less chance there is that the United States will let India upset America's plans for the region by permitting an Indian attack. In your editor's opinion, the chances of India actually attacking last fall and winter were zero, and the chances of it striking now also remain at zero.
- India never had any good option to begin with. Pakistan is not Palestine and India is not Israel. The disparity in power in the Mideast runs to 1000-1 and the Israelis have not been able to stop terror strikes. In India's case, it runs at 1 ½ to 1; worse, Pakistan has two powerful allies who will not stand by and watch while India punishes Pakistan. One is the US, the other is China. Every option India discussed in the winter, ranging from strikes against terror camps (emptied by their occupants) to air and missile strikes against Pakistani facilities supporting terrorists, to a border incursion to create a buffer was deeply flawed and would result in nothing other than India making an ignominious withdrawal without anything achieved. This is one reason India did not in fact attack: once its leaders started thinking instead of threatening, they realized that the costs were near infinite, the possibility of good outcomes near impossible.
- There is only one way India can stop Pakistan from sending insurgents into Kashmir, and that is to end Pakistan as a nation state. India can do this, by doubling defense expenditure, preparing for 5-8 years with single-minded purpose, and then going to war regardless of the international community. The war could last between 90 days to 180 days to a year depending on one's starting assumptions. The notion that India, which openly says a war with Pakistan cannot continue for more than a week or two before foreign intervention becomes effective, and which is one of the softest of soft states, could undertake such sacrifice for its national security is absolutely laughable. In one to two weeks India can achieve exactly nothing.
- Knowing all this from the start, India should not have threatened Pakistan without following through. The mobilization is hurting India, not Pakistan: from Multan north through Kashmir, Pakistani cantonments are on the border or within 6-24 hours cold mobilization time from the border. The Pakistanis are on the alert, but most of them are comfortably ensconced at their home bases, while Indian troops are in the field.
- One of the biggest problems between India and Pakistan is that Pakistan keeps believing one of its soldiers is worth five Indian soldiers, and India keeps believing one of its diplomats is worth five Pakistani diplomats. The simple truth of the matter is that every time Indian and Pakistani troops have met on the field, the Indians have proved themselves the better soldiers - and this is said without imputations on the bravery of the ordinary Pakistani soldier, which is very considerable. Wars are not won by brave men, however, though they can be lost by cowards. Conversely, Indian diplomats and intelligence personnel are far less fleet of body and mind than their Pakistani counterparts. The Pakistanis don't want to give up because they are convinced in a fight they will beat India. The Indians don't want to give up because they think they can outmaneuver Pakistan, and thought they were really on to something after September 11. Pakistan, however, has manipulated the United States far more skillfully than India has. Everything the Indians are getting from America now they could have got at any time in the last 50 years by accepting an alliance with Washington.
- In short, Indian policy on Pakistan is a massive failure on every front. We have failed to intimidate Pakistan, to control the terror in Kashmir, to prevent the Pakistanis from spreading terror all over India, to get Sindh to secede, or in any way to convert our advantages as a country much bigger than Pakistan into any strategic advantage. And now, thanks to Hindu zealots in Gujarat, the Government of India has opened yet under gaping sore in the Indian polity, yet another front into which Pakistan will push guns and money, training and extremist cadres, creating yet another Kashmir.
Well done, Government of India. Situation quite normal all fouled up. With people like you to run our country, there is absolutely no hope at all. If you really want to defeat Pakistan, kindly migrate to the other side and run that country. The problem with this solution is that the people of Pakistan are longing to have their rulers migrate to India and to run India….
Return To Top May 14, 2002
May 13, 2002
India, US Expanding Bilateral Defense Cooperation
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report
Iraq May Opt for the Unexpected May 12
Europeans To Oppose Washington on Arafat May 12
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar I May 11
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar II May 11
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza May 10
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq May 10
India, US Expanding Bilateral Defense Cooperation
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, a story in The Hindu by Sridhar Krishnaswami writing from Washington
Cooperation between India and the United States in defence
and security has been one of the "fastest'' sectors in the overall bilateral
relationship with the width and depth expected to expand significantly in the
near future, diplomats and analysts say.
And one of the significant aspects of this Republican administration has been
that it is willing to look at India beyond a South Asia context in the larger
canvas of defence and security issues and relationship. A multi-tier structure
of defence cooperation has been put in place and one that encompasses not merely
training exercises but also specific groups on the two sides dealing with
technical and technology issues, including transfer of technology.
There are six different levels within the bilateral defence cooperation: between
the Defence Minister of India and the U.S. Defence Secretary; the defence policy
group; the military coordination group; the executive steering groups; the
security cooperation group which deals with technological aspects; and the joint
technical group.
What is being pointed out is the willingness of the United States to look at
India beyond its own Pacific Command in Hawaii; and in the ways the Pentagon has
been receiving the civilian and military brass from India. "It is really
unprecedented'', remarked a top Indian diplomat here. The bilateral defence
cooperation has merited the close attention of the administration starting with
the U.S. President, George W. Bush, and including the Defence Secretary, the
Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor.
One of the emphasis of this Republican administration has been to look at India
within common strategic objectives in the Indian Ocean area. For instance, this
October the United States and India will hold the Malabar series of naval
exercises in the Indian Ocean or the Arabian Sea and for the first time a
Cruiser Destroyer Group of three or four ships and maritime reconnaissance
aircraft will participate.
India and the United States are also scheduled to have joint exercises - of
special forces - in Agra and later this year at Alaska. A critical component of
the expanding bilateral defence cooperation has been in the realm of
procurement, the latest agreement being on the Firefinding Radar, or the ANTPQ
37 which was finalised during the meeting of the Security Cooperation Group. One
of the things stressed here is that while every single item under Foreign
Military Sales has to be notified to Congress, every effort is being taken to
simplify the process. More importantly, in the context of the newly emerging
relationship, there is no intention either in the administration or Congress to
stop sales to India. "There is no intent to stop but the procedural time frame
will have to be kept in mind'', remarked a senior diplomat.
[A US Navy Crusier-Destroyer Group does not consist of 3-4 warships. Editor]
Return To Top May 13, 2002
Pakistan planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report
From the Press Trust of India as reported in the Times of India
Pakistan army had mobilised its nuclear arsenal against India during the Kargil war in 1999, without the knowledge of its Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday quoting a senior White House adviser at that time.
In a paper to be published shortly by the University of Pennsylvania, Bruce Riedel, who was a senior adviser to then US President Bill Clinton on India and Pakistan, recalls how the president was told that he faced the most important foreign policy meeting of his career.
"There was disturbing information about Pakistan preparing its nuclear arsenal," Riedel writes.
According to the report, Riedel and other aides feared that India and Pakistan were heading for a "deadly descent into full-scale conflict, with a danger of nuclear cataclysm". They were also concerned about Osama Bin Laden's growing influence in the region.
Intelligence experts had told Riedel that the flight times of missiles fired by either side would be as little as three minutes and that "a Pakistani strike on just one Indian city, Mumbai, would kill between 150,000 and 850,000 alone".
Riedel, the newspaper said, told Clinton not to reveal his intelligence hand in the opening talks with Sharif, in which the president handed the premier a cartoon that showed Pakistan and India firing nuclear missiles at one another.
But in a second discussion, at which Riedel was the only other person present, "Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was. Did Sharif know his military was preparing their missiles?" he writes.
While Clinton reminded Sharif how close the US and Soviet Union had come to nuclear war in 1962 over Cuba, Sharif agreed it would be a catastrophe even if a single bomb was dropped.
Riedel does not state in the paper how the Americans gathered their intelligence, nor what the mobilisation entailed. But John Pike, Director of the Washington-based Global Security organisation, said intelligence channels could have become aware of the trucks that carry Pakistan's nuclear missiles being moved from their bases at Sargodha, near Rawalpindi.
"One scenario is that missile trucks were picked up parked in a convoy," he said.
Clinton drove home the advantage that the intelligence coup had given him, Riedel recalls. "Did Sharif order the Pakistani nuclear missile force to prepare for action," the prime minister was asked. "Did he realise how crazy that was?"
Riedel describes how an "exhausted" Sharif "denied he had ordered the preparation and said he was against that, but worried for his life back in Pakistan".
Soon afterwards Sharif, who now lives in exile in Saudi Arabia, signed a document agreeing to pull back his forces from Kargil.
If, as Riedel implies, Sharif was kept in the dark about his nuclear programme, he suffered a similar embarrassment to that of his predecessor, Benazir Bhutto, who is said to have asked the CIA for a briefing on Islamabad's nuclear capability because that privilege was denied to her by her own generals.
According to the newspaper, a recent report by the CIA, Global Trends 2015, predicts that the threat of nuclear war will remain a serious regional issue for the next 15 years.
By next year Pakistan is thought likely to have between 50 and 75 nuclear warheads, while India will have between 75 and 100, the report said.
Return To Top May 13, 2002
May 12, 2002
Iraq May Opt for the Unexpected
Europeans To Oppose Washington on Arafat
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar I May 11
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar II May 11
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza May 10
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq May 10
Satellite Proliferation threatens US Military May 8
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya May 7
Iraq may opt for the unexpected
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett and the AFI Middle East Intelligence Team.
Intelligence sources in the Middle East have suggested to AFI Research that Iraq's response to the threat of a largely US assault may not take the path normally predicted. Far from merely trying to exploit differences between the European and US approach and indeed playing Saddams traditional 'brinkmanship' game, hoping that time and a break down in the coalition will save their necks, Iraq's leadership may indeed opt for the unexpected and a rather more robust reaction. These sources confirm the widespread preparations for unconventional operations and suggest that these will be given the go-ahead by Baghdad once Saddam Hussein and his top advisers are finally convinced of Washington's determination to overthrow the Iraqi regime and confirmation of the movement of sufficient forces to launch a full-scale attack.
Only the presence of a significant conventional US force will finally trigger possible Iraqi actions as Saddam's Security advisers are convinced that they can overcome internal Iraqi opposition encouraged by the CIA and even supported by US Special Forces.
Iraq has a range of options from widespread sabotage attacks on the US build-up of forces to a full scale, though probably suicidal, pre-emptive missile strike on targets throughout the Middle East.
China and North Korea enhance Iraq's weapons capability
Iraq does indeed possess significant numbers of re-engineered SCUD's and indigenous Surface-to-Surface missile systems with both guidance and range now greatly enhanced by renegade Russian technicians and major Chinese and North Korean assistance programs. Many of the difficulties with CBW warheads have been overcome in recent years and these may now be truly effective particularly against unprepared and highly populated civilian targets. More significantly a number of Middle Eastern Intelligence services, including the Turkish MIT, are concerned that Iraq now possesses some form of nuclear capability. Significant quantities of important nuclear materials are reported to have been obtained from a former Soviet Republic and while Iraq may still be some months away from creating a true nuclear warhead, their ability to produce a proto-bomb in the form of a plutonium sleeve placed around a ultra-high explosive HMX core which could still cause devastating radiation over a wide area, is no longer seriously doubted.
However, the most alarming program suspected to have been underway for some years concerns the acquisition or production of low-yield Atomic Demolition Munitions. While Iraqi attempts at miniaturization have not yet been entirely successful, weapons small enough to fit in a van, truck, hijacked commercial aircraft or a fishing boat are now a distinct and alarming possibility.
With such weapons in his possession, Saddam Hussein may be able to carry out devastating attacks on western assets with the blame being placed firmly on Islamic terrorists, at least at first.
Saddam may not wait for nemesis to arrive
Iraq does seem to have a suitable well trained force to carry out such attacks. Special units of 'Saddam's Martyrs' or 'the Men of Sacrifice' have been selected and trained under cover of the wider para-military organization of the same name, while further suicide teams are drawn from the so-called 'Jerusalem Army' which is used to cover the training of hundreds of Islamic volunteers including pilots, from outside Iraq. These fighters are instructed in sabotage, assassination, suicide attacks and the hijacking of foreign commercial aircraft, while they also receive the full back-up of the Iraqi intelligence services including the provision of forged passports and the necessary documentation for covert operations in the USA and Western Europe.
The Iraqi leader may indeed wait several more months before he considers the time is right to take the initiative, but faced with certain nemesis Saddam Hussein is unlikely to simply allow Washington to pick the time and place. Iraq is working hard to produce weapons that may reduce much of the Middle East to a wasteland devastated by chemical attack, biological weapons or radiation. This may indeed be the bill that the United States will have to pay for their determination to rid the region of a leader that Washington for so long considered a close and valuable ally.
Return To Top May 12, 2002
Europeans To Oppose Washington on Arafat
From DebkaFile. Please also read Debka's article on why Israel's strike against Gaza was cancelled. It appears that the most recent bombing was not the doing of the Palestinians or Hamas, but of Arab Israelis. It also appears that political infighting undercut Mr. Sharon. If Arab Israelis were responsible, Mr. Sharon has succeeded only in portraying himself as a revenge-filled, unthinking, old warrior past his time. He was absolutely explicit in pinning the bombing on Chairman Arafat. This means he is talking without thinking, and in such a tense situation, this is not a good thing. Meanwhile, we hold no brief for the Europeans, who seem to be opposing Washington from considerations of what they think is realpolitik - no alternative to Mr. Arafat etc etc. Mr. Arafat is part of the Palestine problem. His corrupt and repressive regime makes life for his people even worse than it already is thanks to the Israelis. He needs to go now. No leader is indispensable. We wonder if the Europeans are being motivated more by the anger at Washington's unilateralist stance on the Mideast and Iraq than on rational consideration. If so, they need to separate the two issues.
12 May: Saturday night, May 11, DEBKAfile was informed by its American and European sources of an explicit policy departure by the European Union: Following the Bethlehem episode, that ended in the banishment of 13 senior terrorists outside the Middle East, the deportation of 26 to the Gaza Strip and the release of another 84, Brussels has decided to come out in the open and fight the Bush administration's moves to sideline Yasser Arafat.
The European bloc reached a clear decision over the weekend to extend the Palestinian leader a lifeline and restores his standing together with that of the Palestinian Authority.
This move cancels out the US president's attempt to use the Bethlehem crisis as an opportunity for forging a joint US-European stand on the Palestinian question.
The first outward indication of the rift was the surprise announcement by the EU Middle East Envoy, Miguel Moratinos in Nicosia Saturday, May 11, after visiting the 13 senior terrorists whom Israel says have blood on their hands:
"They are free men, not prisoners, not deportees. They have signed on a personal basis an agreement to go to a third country. They came on a voluntary basis. This is not a deportation."
All thirteen have been welcomed at the three-star Flamingo Hotel in Larnaca until a European foreign ministers meeting Monday, 13 May, decides which countries will take them.
According to DEBKAfile's Washington and Brussels sources, the Europeans acted when they found out that in whichever countries, the 13 terrorists are dispersed, the United States means to apply to their governments for the extradition of suspected murderers of American citizens.
The first on their list is Ismail Hamdan, a Bethlehem Tanzim leader and member of Tawfiq Tirawi's General Intelligence service, who killed Avi Boaz, an American businessman based in Gilo, Jerusalem earlier this year.
According to our sources, Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres has informed his confidants that he means to follow the European lead and openly challenge the Sharon line on Arafat, which is aligned with Washington. If Peres goes through with this strategy, the national unity government created by the Likud prime minister 14 months ago will face its first real threat.
[On a personal level, we are indeed sorry that Mr. Boaz was killed. Nonetheless, we believe most Americans will not appreciate Debka's effort to play to the American audience by emphasizing his US citizenship. Was it exclusive, or was he also an Israeli citizen like so many American-Israelis and Israeli-Americans? In the unlikely event his citizenship was exclusive, then we would agree Washington has an interest. We would have questions and reservations about Washington's obligation to get involved when one of its citizens is murdered after willingly placing himself in a war zone. But that is a separate matter. If Mr. Boaz was a dual national, in our opinion - which is shared by many on the dual national issue - Washington has no obligation to do anything and had best not get involved. While in Israel Mr. Boaz was an Israeli and his country there is responsible for him. Editor]
Return To Top May 12, 2002
May 11, 2002
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar I
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar II
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza May 10
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq May 10
Satellite Proliferation threatens US Military May 8
India's Own Beirut May 8
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya May 7
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar I
A Fox News story from Military.com. [Edited]
WASHINGTON - The CIA wants to kill a renegade Afghan warlord who it sees as a major threat to the interim government of President Hamid Karzai and U.S. troops, and has already fired a missile from an unmanned Predator plane at the man, defense officials said Thursday.
Former Afghan Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar narrowly missed being hit by the missile, which was fired at him near Kabul Monday, said the anonymous American officials. Some members of his Hezb-e-Islami - "Party of Islam" - group were believed killed.
At a fund-raiser for Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, Bush said: "The best way to secure the homeland; the best way to make sure our children grow up in a safe America; the best way to protect civilization itself is to chase the killers down, one by one, and bring them to justice. And that's precisely what we're going to do."
Hekmatyar, a radical Islamist who was a major recipient of American and Saudi money during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, had been planning to strike Karzai's government, and perhaps Karzai himself, one Pentagon official said.
Despite his alliance with the U.S. during the 1980s, Hekmatyar has been a strident critic of the current American role in Afghanistan and now plans to target U.S. troops in the country, defense officials said.
The Central Intelligence Agency has played a major role in the Afghan campaign, gathering intelligence and sending in its paramilitary to work with local tribal leaders who mounted their armies against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami party announced in early March that it was ready to cooperate with Afghanistan's U.S.-supported interim leader and sent a delegation to meet with Karzai in Kabul to iron out differences. But in April, hundreds of people linked to the group were arrested in Kabul in connection with the alleged overthrow plot. It included plans to set off bombs throughout the capital, officials said at the time. Documents and other evidence linked Hekmatyar to the plot, but made no mention of Al Qaeda or Usama bin Laden, officials said.
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Hekmatyar was a guerrilla commander in the fight against the 1980s' Soviet military occupation of Afghanistan and served as a prime minister in the fractious government that took power after routing of a pro-Soviet Afghan administration in 1992. Ruthless power struggles between his forces and those of rivals laid waste to whole neighborhoods of the Afghan capital and killed tens of thousands. Hekmatyar fled to Iran after the Taliban took Kabul in 1996.
Iranian authorities closed Hekmatyar's offices in the country in February, and ordered him out. The move appeared to be a gesture toward the United States and Karzai. Hekmatyar called for jihad against the United States in November and joined some of his armed followers in Afghanistan after returning from Iran, said another U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
It's unclear if he has any strong links to Al Qaeda or surviving Taliban forces. The official suggested he may be forging an alliance of convenience with them to oust the American-backed Karzai regime.
In a country known for its shifting allegiances and factional rivalries, Hekmatyar has been an opponent of both the Taliban and the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.
Hekmatyar, 52, is a Ghilzai Pashtun from Kunduz province in northern Afghanistan. He speaks several languages, including English, has two wives and several children.
Also in April, Pashtun figures said they suspected Hekmatyar's group might be responsible for threatening leaflets found in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, the stronghold of former Taliban rulers. The leaflets said parents who send their children to school will be killed and their homes burned down.
Return To Top May 11, 2002
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar II
No one should be surprised that the US has put Mr. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar on its hit list. We honestly have no clue as to if the US really sent a Predator after him or if it is just racheting up the pressure on him. Our guess is it's the latter: generally you don't have the State Department happily blabbing to the Washington Post about a failed mission, and just in the last week at that - and a CIA mission to boot.
Nevertheless, many months ago we'd said the US would start going after the local warlords once more important matters were out of the way. One's basic perspective on Afghanistan comes down to how serious one thinks the US is. Our belief is that the US is very serious indeed, and that it will do anything necessary to get a stable government there. If that means eliminating a few people, no one in Washington will lose any sleep.
We suspect there is a bit more to this announcement than just putting pressure on the nasty warlord of Her at or even the tangled skein of Iran-US-Afghanistan politics. It just may be the US is also sending a message to another unpleasant character, Mr. Bacha Khan in the east. The central government is preparing to move against him. Mr. Bacha Khan had best remember that these days in his country Uncle Sam both proposes and disposes. As recently as a decade ago most of us (your editor included) might well have been yelling "darn interfering Americans - who do they think they are?" Today attitudes have changed. Most of us no longer feel that under the guise of sovereignty, a country's rulers can savagely exploit their people, and more than under the guise of privacy can a person abuse her/his spouse and children. We are a global village, and in a village, everyone is responsible for everyone. Everyone has the right, and the duty, to intervene if wrong is being done.
We agree Washington is far from perfect as an intervener. It is not just curiously selective, it is color prejudiced, because the most horrible things continue in black Africa while Uncle Sam remains indifferent. This said, what is the alternative? Half a loaf and all that. The US has committed itself to rebuilding the Balkans and Haiti, did its bit in East Timor, and is now going all out in Afghanistan. That's a whole lot more than anyone else is doing.
Return To Top May 11, 2002
May 10, 2002
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza
IISS London on US Military Options Against Iraq
Israel will remain as vulnerable as ever May 9
Maoists kill 140 Nepalese troops
May 9
Satellite Proliferation threatens US Military May 8
India's Own Beirut May 8
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya May 7
Letter to the Editor: Israel's Occupation of West Bank and Gaza
From David Newton.
In the AFI article on May 9 Richard Bennett claims that the Israelis are illegally occupying Arab lands and that they will be forced as a historical necessity to hand them back.
Firstly, the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, whilst condemned by UN Security Council resolutions, is actually a legal occupation. It is a long-standing principle of international relations that lands won from nations in war where that war was started for legitimate reasons can be legally occupied until a peace treaty is reached. Israel occupied Sinai and handed that land back to Egypt after the 1979 peace treaty. Egypt renounced all claims to the Gaza Strip. In the 1994 peace treaty with Israel, Jordan also renounced any claims to the West Bank. Syria has not concluded a peace treaty with Israel, and remains technically at war, thus Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights is again perfectly legal. An example closer to home occured after the Kosovo war. If the war was a legitimate one, the terms for its close included the ceding of Kosovo by Yugoslavia to international control. NATO occupation of Kosovo is based upon the same principles as Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip, West Bank and Golan Heights.
Second, there is no historical necessity for handing back conquered territory. Many has been the time that nation has conquered territory in war and kept that territory after that war as part of the peace settlement. The Soviet Union and Finland in WWII are an example of this sort of thing. The Soviets went to war with Finland over land near Leningrad, which the Soviets wanted to take over. The Soviets eventually beat the Finns, both in the Winter War of 1939-1940 and after they had joined the Axis in 1941. To this day that land won from Finland in WWII remains Russian territory.
Finally, Mr Bennett talks about the Israeli government being obsessed with military solutions to the problem of Arafat's terrorism. I do not see any alternatives to those solutions being presented. It has consistently been the case that the Israeli government has tried to avoid killing civilians in its operations, and those operations have always been launched in response to Palestinian murders of Israeli civilians. It is a truth to say that the Israeli government would leave the Palestinians alone if the Palestinians stopped murdering Israeli civilians.
The Arab world is riddled with fascist attitudes, far more so than Jean-Marie le Pen and Pym Fortyn who have provoked so much hand wringing in Europe over the past month or so. Those Arab fascist attitudes are a large part of the cause of the current war. Israel is engaged in fighting those attitudes as much as America and its allies are.
To balance the above, that is not to say that Israel is totally without blame in this conflict. The Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are illegal under international law, and should be dismantled post haste. There have also been cases where Israel has been less than sensible in its approach to the conflict, such as the total ban on humanitarian workers in places like Jenin long after the fighting was over, and presumably long after any booby traps had been cleared from the towns.
Israel is fighting Islamic terrorism that is directly linked to Osama bin Laden. Therefore, it behooves the western world to support Israeli efforts to deal with the Islamic terrorism except in those circumstances where Israel does break international law. Unfortunately, vested interests and the remains of peacetime attitudes of politicians come into play when dealing with the Arab world. There is such a thing in diplomacy as kowtowing to people too much. It happened at Munich in 1938, and unfortunately, it is happening now when Islamic terrorists are concerned. The Arabs are not being robustly confronted with their crimes because the western world is afraid of the results of that confrontation. It has historically proven the case that shying away from such confrontations inevitably makes them worse when they are finally forced.
Dealing with Islamic terrorism will be a long and messy job. It will also fundamentally redefine the order of this world, just as WWI, WWII and the Cold War did.
Return To Top May 10, 2002
Military options towards Iraq
Forwarded by Gerry Hol, this analysis by the IISS London is from its open section.
Which tactics and what force?
Washington has made clear its desire for 'regime
change' in Iraq, seeing Saddam Hussein's removal as
the way to reduce Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
threats from Iraq. US efforts to garner support for
military action have achieved little success to date,
with key Middle Eastern and European states urging
Washington to focus on the more immediate problem of
the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The diplomatic
complexities surrounding US plans for action are
deepening.
Yet, in assessing tactics and levels of
force that the US would need to unseat Saddam,
relatively straightforward conclusions arise.
The US would have to plan an invasion resembling
Operation Desert Storm. While 500,000 troops might not
be needed again, half that number could be. US
casualties might be several times higher than the 400
sustained in 1990-91. Other options, such as using
limited force in conjunction with aid to the Iraqi
opposition, have appeal because they aim to repeat the
tactics used in unseating Afghanistan's Taliban. In
Iraq, however, such tactics would be unlikely to work.
Saddam's removal would have to involve decisive force.
The need for stability while a new Iraqi government
became established would mean deploying up to 200,000
US ground troops, backed by 700-1,000 aircraft, and
maintaining them in-theatre for some time.
Unsuitable Afghan model
The tactics used in Afghanistan would not work in
Iraq.
First, the disparity in power between government
and opposition forces is much greater than that
between the Taliban and Northern Alliance.
Second, the
terrain and tactics in Afghanistan favoured US
airpower working with the local opposition, whereas in
Iraq the US would have to plan for tactical
environments ranging from large-scale open manoeuvre
warfare to irregular urban warfare.
Third, Iraqi
forces have in the last ten
years learned to deploy and operate in a manner that
could mitigate the effects of bombardment.
In Afghanistan, Taliban forces and al-Qaeda fighters
numbered perhaps 50,000. They faced a Northern
Alliance about 15,000 strong, later assisted by
southern
Pashtun militias that made overall opposition forces
at least half the strength of the Taliban. In Iraq,
the armed forces include 425,000 active-duty troops.
Of that number, roughly 30,000 are Special Republican
Guard personnel and about 70,000 make up the
Republican Guard - these are better fighters than is
generally
appreciated. The other 325,000 are estimated at 50%
combat effectiveness. There are also 650,000
reservists of suspect capability and devotion, but
these should
not be dismissed entirely as a matter of prudence.
Iraqi forces retain large quantities of equipment,
although armoured combat capabilities are estimated at
less than half those in 1990.
Iraq's opposition
includes 15,000 Kurdish Democratic Party troops,
10,000
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan troops and 6,000 Shi'ite
troops. Kurds claim their strength could double in
time of conflict. This would make for a total of
30-100,000
opposition personnel. However, most Iraqi opposition
forces lack mobility, anti-aircraft and anti-tank
weapons. This could be rectified by the US, which
could
also provide the technical means to operate in
conjunction with US aircraft.
Yet, the question of how
the mostly Kurdish opposition would infiltrate in
strength into central Iraq would remain. If a few
thousand Kurds straggled into Saddam's strongholds and
then faced tens of thousands of elite forces, the fate
of those Kurds (and any accompanying US forces) would
be bloody. Even if all the Kurds and other opposition
fighters took up position, the resulting force ratio
would be at least 4:1 in Saddam's favour.
The tactics of Iraq's army must also be considered.
Facing a challenge from the Kurdish-based opposition
and US airpower, its wisest course would be to hunker
down in cities, distribute and hide its forces, and
fight from those places. It cannot be assumed that the
Iraqi army would deploy armour in the open desert (as
in 1990-91), firing from static positions and
presenting an immobile target for airpower (as the
Taliban did). Many Iraqi weapons and command and
control (C2) centres will be placed near apartments,
hospitals, schools, and mosques.
Proponents of fighting Saddam, emboldened by the
success of Operation Enduring Freedom, argue that US
capabilities have improved enormously since Desert
Storm, and are confident of rapid success, regardless
of where the US fights Iraqi
forces. They note that over 50% of ordnance dropped in
Afghanistan has been precision-guided, whereas the
proportion was less than 10% in Desert Storm. This
is correct, but not particularly persuasive. Desert
Storm hardly lacked for precision-strike weaponry:
nearly 20,000 'smart' bombs were used, in contrast to
about 12,000 in Enduring Freedom to date.
Yet, several
attempts to kill Saddam failed. In ensuing years,
moreover, precision weapons were relatively
ineffectual in depriving Iraq of WMD, much of which
was hidden from intelligence analysts.
Airpower proponents often forget the experience of
Kosovo, where more than one-third of NATO's ordnance
was 'smart', yet confirmed kills on Serbian forces in
the forests and towns of Kosovo were very few. The US
is largely still fighting with the weapons and tactics
used in Kosovo.
Meanwhile, weapons such as the Joint Direct Attack
Munition (JDAM), so effective against entrenched
Taliban forces, would generally be ineffective against
Iraqi armour inside Iraqi cities, as they typically
miss their targets by 10-15 metres. In urban settings,
such inaccuracy would cause unacceptable collateral
damage.
Armoured targets would also often survive strikes.
Laser-guided bombs could be more effective in good
weather and against exposed armour, but require
forward
target-designators. If US aircraft tried to spot
targets on their own, they would have to fly low over
Iraqi cities, risking losses from Iraqi anti-aircraft
artillery and shoulder-launched surface-to-air
missiles (SAMs). When coalition aircraft flew low in
the first three days of Desert Storm, 27 aircraft were
damaged or destroyed (one-third of losses).
The invasion option
The presence of sizeable US ground forces would make
a decisive contribution to military success. Iraqi
units might move against Saddam if they saw a massive
army advancing towards them - many commanders are
loyal to Saddam only out of fear for their lives.
However, mass Iraqi defections cannot be assumed, and
other factors warrant consideration.
First, despite
degradation, Iraqi forces have an urban warfare
capability and it can be assumed that if US forces
assembled over a period of months, cities would be
'prepared' for urban combat. Much heavy equipment is
in poor repair, but the weapons needed for urban
combat - shoulder-launched
SAMs, anti-tank weapons, automatic weapons,
rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, explosives and
mines - are in ample supply.
Second, the Republican
Guard and Special Republican Guard are more loyal to
Saddam than conscripts. It would be extremely
imprudent to assume that 100,000 hard-core fighters
would not
oppose US-led coalition forces inside Iraq's cities.
Washington would have to at least attain parity. More
than 100,000 US troops would thus be required, while
an
invasion and occupation force of 200,000 would be
ideal.
Third, recent experience in urban combat points
to the likelihood of one US loss for every 5-20
opposition losses. If Iraq were prepared to endure
20,000 casualties, the US could also suffer thousands
(with roughly 20% fatalities). The risks in assuming
easy victory only to be proved wrong would be quite
high.
The Iraqi targets of greatest interest to US forces
would include C2 and leadership targets, what remains
of the Iraqi nuclear weapons programme and other WMD
capabilities. If these could be neutralised, the war
could potentially be won quickly, since toppling
Saddam and depriving Iraq of WMD is of more importance
to the US than completely destroying Iraq's military.
However, it has to be assumed that C2 targets could
survive attacks; that the US would not quickly learn
the whereabouts of WMD targets; and that Saddam could
evade capture or remain within a protective cordon
formed by elite troops. Under these circumstances, one
has to
assume that the US would have to destroy or force the
surrender of the bulk of
Iraq's armed forces, and particularly the Republican
Guard and Special Republican Guard.
In choosing forces, the US would have to use several
hundred combat aircraft to attack strategic targets
and provide close air support for US and any other
coalition ground troops. In terms of ground forces,
some heavy armour would be needed, but a mix of armour
and infantry would be critical.
Since there is no
dedicated division or corps of urban combat troops in
the US military, the US ground force might include:
two heavy armoured or mechanised infantry divisions;
the 101st Air Assault Division (possibly also
earmarked for seizing forward operating bases); the
10th Mountain Division; several thousand Rangers and
special operations forces; and one or two Marine
divisions.
A ground invasion would be difficult to prepare.
Deploying 200,000 troops to the Gulf would take time,
especially since Saudi bases and facilities might not
be available. If only Kuwait allowed access to its
facilities for staging, building up 200,000 US troops
would take 2-3 months and forces would be more limited
in terms of their breakout manoeuvre warfare. More
airfields would also have to be built and a number of
carrier air groups would have to be deployed. A total
preparation period of 4-6 months might be needed.
WMD wildcard
Despite these caveats, it is possible to be confident
that a US-led invasion force would achieve victory.
Yet, US planners will have to keep in mind possible
use of whatever WMD capability Saddam has retained or
developed since UN weapons inspectors were ejected in
1998. Based on past experiences with chemical weapons,
current US casualty estimates would have to be
increased by at least 50%.
Also of concern would be
possible WMD-use against Israel, Kuwait, the Kurds or
Western targets. Iraq may possess 30 SCUDs and
shorter-range missiles, while aircraft and human
agents might also deliver weaponry. SCUDs carrying
conventional warheads would not be major threat, with
average casualties of 1-5 per missile expected. Those
carrying biological weapons would probably fail to
dispense agent properly, given the crudeness of the
delivery mechanism but SCUDs carrying chemicals would
be expected to kill dozens per warhead, depending on
levels of protection, wind conditions and advance
warning. Aircraft carrying chemical or biological
weapons would, however, be much more dangerous.
Fortunately, neighbouring states are unlikely to be
vulnerable given the cover afforded by the US air
force, but Iraqi Kurds and Shi'ites might be at risk.
These dangers are real but probably not excessive.
Calibrating the conflict
Overthrowing Saddam would require preparations for a
ground invasion followed by an occupation of Iraq. It
is difficult to imagine any US administration which
contains Secretary of State Colin Powell not planning
for the use of overwhelming force. Simple prudence
also argues for such an approach. If such plans are
made,
and deployments initiated, there is a possibility that
the Iraqi army might crumble before it had to be
fought. But this cannot be relied on. Hoping for an
easier victory, or experimenting with an Afghan model
of warfare first, would probably result in large
causalities among the Iraqi opposition and a stalemate
that would damage US relations with the Middle East,
without shaking Saddam's hold on power.
Return To Top May 10, 2002
May 9, 2002
Israel will remain as vulnerable as ever
Headlines from DebkaFile
Maoists kill 140 Nepalese troops
Satellite Proliferation threatens US Military May 8
India's Own Beirut May 8
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya May 7
Nepalese Army rout large force of Maoist rebels May 7
Al Qaida to go on European Rampage? Omar Mullah to retake Afghanistan? Really? May 7
Israel will remain as vulnerable as ever
By our colleague Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
As predicted by AFI Research and other leading sources of Middle Eastern intelligence, the recent Israel military offensive in the West Bank has once again failed to produce significantly improved levels of security and indeed in the long run has probably done considerable damage to any serious chance of peace. In a major set-back to Israel's hopes of success, Islamic terrorists have killed at least 15 and wounded a further 60 or more in a suicide bomb attack on a crowded social club in the town of Rishon Letzion on the southern outskirts of Tel Aviv. The blast occurred shortly after the Israeli Prime Minister had begun a meeting with US President George W Bush in Washington and as a result Sharon is hastily returning home for an emergency Cabinet meeting.
The degree of self-delusion in Israel that fire can only be fought with fire is leaving Jerusalem trapped in a no-win situation and despite extraordinary support from Dick Armey, the US Republican majority leader, for a 'Greater Israel' encompassing all the occupied territories and other Arab lands upto the Litani River, fundamentalist Jewish ambitions are fatally flawed and unlikely to prevail. Sooner or probably later, Israel will be forced as a historical necessity to hand back illegally occupied Arab lands, accept the reality of a secular solution and negotiate a peace treaty with the Palestinians on the basis of complete equality.
Sharon sees military action as the only option
In the meantime, Sharon's Government will feel it has little choice but to punish the Palestinians and, with the full support of the less cerebral members of the Bush administration, will probably seek to establish complete control of the occupied territories, including Gaza in an even more comprehensive military operation. Sharons determination to pursue the Islamic militants 'until they cease to exist' will receive the full backing of the Religious fundamentalists and political hard-liners in the Israeli Cabinet who may now achieve their ultimate aim of finally removing Yasser Arafat, one way or another, and indeed may even be tempted to launch limited pre-emptive strikes on certain neighbouring Arab states.
The cost to United States influence in the Middle East however, of Israel's unwillingness to obey countless UN resolutions and its short-sighted reliance on the military option is enormous and Israel's traditional importance to Washington may not long outweigh the counter-productive effects on 500 Million Muslims in the region. Israel is a drain on Washington's financial resources and is in effect permanently on US 'Social Welfare'. Israel would be bankrupt without the huge amounts of US military and economic aid and provides a stark contrast with the potential benefits inherent in any US rapprochement with the populous and oil-rich Arab States. US business is well aware that the prospects for highly lucrative contracts to help rebuild Arab industry, transport infrastructure, communications and the military are dwindling rapidly with every seemingly pro-Israeli action or statement The Whitehouse authorizes. The knock-on effect of the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is without a shadow of a doubt greatly benefiting Saddam Hussein and the Islamic militants,and seriously distorting the prosecution of the 'War on terrorism'.
Israel tactical nuclear weapons ready for action?
In a development which if it proves to be true will further raise doubts amongst the more level headed Washington analysts, Israel is reported to have placed deep-penetration Attack Fighters equipped with battlefield tactical nuclear weapons on immediate readiness at an airfield in Galilee. The F16C/D of Squadrons-109, 110 and 117 based at Ramat David south east of Haifa are just minutes flying time from the Syrian capital and large concentrations of military formations. The Israeli intelligence community appear to firmly believe, despite denials coming from European and US sources, that they have "credible intelligence" that both Syria and Iraq following the Beirut "summit" last weekend are preparing to intervene on behalf of the Palestinians.
The options open to the Arab's for military action were apparently spelled out by Efraim Halevy, the Director of Mossad during an in-depth briefing given to the Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon just before he left for Washington. Indeed this may also have led to the deployment of nuclear 'mines' on the Golan heights to destroy any potential massive armoured attack by Syria. Mossad are also reported to have expressed concern that Iraq may have some 80 or so suicide pilots with MiG23 or MiG27 aircraft equipped with CBW or primitive 'dirty nuclear' bombs within range of the main Israeli cities and the nuclear facilities at Dimona. Recent movements of Iraqi Republican Guard and Army units, supported by Air Defence assets into the Western Desert when taken in conjunction with Syrian deployments seem to have set alarm bells ringing in the Israeli Defence Ministry.
Syrian Army still in defensive positions
It is known that the Syrian Army has recently moved its forces, particularly in the Lebanon, into a number of well prepared, but largely defensive positions. As AFI Research has reported in recent months, Syria's Ist Armoured Corps is on a high state of alert
and has re-enforced the units based between Damascus and the Golan Heights, but of more significance to the Israeli's is the redeployment of certain major formations of the 2nd Corps which covers the far more vulnerable area to the west of the Capital and the Lebanon. Both the 10th Mechanized Division and a Brigade Group from the 51st Armoured Division are in the central and northern Beqa'a Valley with armoured combat teams straddling the Beirut-Damascus Highway, supported by additional Armoured Brigades, the 27th, 82nd and 87th now positioned between the Syrian border and the strategically important town of Ba'albek. In addition the 47th and 65th Brigades from the 3rd Armoured Division are in position just inside the Syrian border supporting elements of the elite 14th Special Forces Division just north of the disputed Sheba'a Farms area.
The Israeli General Staff are of the opinion that the Syrian and Iraqi military deployments may be in advance of a serious ratchetting up of Hizbollah attacks on Galilee and is directly linked to the delivery to the Islamic guerrillas of hundreds of Iranian Fajar-5 surface-to-surface missiles. The Fajar with a range of more than 30 miles (50kms) can threaten Haifa and much of northern Israel, while improved versions are reported to have a longer range and could be fitted with warheads filled with chemical agents. A realistic military view would more likely suggest that such weapons would only be used as a last resort by Hizbollah and that their presence may even prove counter-productive to the Islamic organization as they provide Israel with the perfect excuse for a first strike if the threat of a widening conflict continues to grow.
Prospects for peace and an end to the suffering of both the Israeli and Palestinian peoples has once again receded, and with few options left it is expected that Israel will take dramatic military action quite soon. Apparently this blood-soaked 'Holy Land' will see many more deaths and increased destruction before common-sense, reality and hopefully humanity, can take centre-stage in the Middle East.
Return To Top May 9, 2002
Headlines From DebkaFile
DebkaFile
-
Upon Arrival from Washington Wednesday Night,
Sharon Convened Military, Security and Intelligence
Chiefs for Immediate Consultation on Launch of
Operation Defensive Shield Part 2 in Gaza Strip
Its Objective: to Dismantle Palestinian Authority Institutions, Its Terror
and Security Bodies - Also Hamas and Jihad Islami Strongholds
- Israel's Defense Cabinet Meets Wednesday Night to
Determine Response for Tuesday's Suicide
Bombing in Rishon Lezion
Fifteen Israelis Killed and Some 60 Injured in Blast
- Israeli Intelligence Sources: Perpetrators Were
Palestinian Security Men Associated with Arafat
- Senior Security Sources: Gaza Strip Combat
Tougher Challenge Than West Bank, Will
Entail Call-up of Reserves
Danger of Iraq, Syria and Hizballah Opening
Second and Third Warfronts
- Saudi Foreign Minister al-Faisal Flies Wednesday
from Washington to Damascus to Hold Assad Back
from Intervening
- Helicopter and Tank Fire Cover New Israel Special Forces in
Preventive Operation against Terrorists Wednesday in Tulkarm
Hizballah Opens Anti-Air Fire from Lebanon over
Israeli Galilee Panhandle Wednesday
- Second Palestinian Terrorist Action in 12 Hours Left No Israeli Casualties
Bomber Was Injured in Powerful Charge He Detonated Wednesday at Megiddo Junction and Intercity Bus Stop on
Israeli Highway East of Hadera
Return To Top May 9, 2002
Maoists kill 140 Nepalese troops
From Pakistan's Daily Jang
KATHMANDU: Some 140 Nepalese police and soldiers were killed in a Maoist attack in the rebels' western stronghold of Rolpa, where security forces have been pounding guerrilla bases for a week, officials said on Wednesday.
Just hours after Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said he secured support at the White House for his anti-Maoist crackdown, rebels surrounded a joint army-police security post set up last month at Gama in Rolpa, 298 kilometres west of Kathmandu.
The post housed about 185 security personnel, about 45 of whom were believed to be out on patrol when the Maoists struck at about 11:30 pm Tuesday (1815 GMT), officials said. The Maoists torched the security station after a gunfight lasting more than four hours. All 105 policemen and 35 army personnel believed to be inside the post were killed, local officials told AFP.
Rights group Amnesty International called for an independent investigation of the assault, saying the heavy Maoist casualties "suggest that international standards which require the security forces to respect the right to life and refrain from using lethal force unless absolutely necessary have not been respected."
In a separate incident on Wednesday morning, Maoists attacked a security post in Sankhuwa Sabha district, 390 kilometers northeast of Kathmandu, leaving dead 28 rebels and four policemen, officials in Kathmandu said.
[A note from the Editor to Amnesty International:
Dear Amnesty, please expeditiously issue another statement. Since your voice often seems to fail, or at least to grow weak, when the forces opposing a government are involved, here is a suggestion for the statement:
The 100% kill of government forces suggests that the rebels executed all wounded and those who might have surrendered. AI calls for an independent investigation of this atrocity.
May I further suggest you educate yourself on the differences between an action by civil police against citizens who are in the main unarmed, and a large-scale battle involving thousands of armed combatants.
Here is another suggestion that could also work well. Why don't you send a team of observers to both sides. Next time the Nepalese Army is in combat, I am sure they will be happy to have you read the rebels their rights. Since you will be taking the same risks as the Army, the Army will surely not hold it against you when you lecture its soldiers on international norms about the right to life and minimum force. Equally, I am sure the rebels will be only too thrilled to have you around to remind them they must not use unnecessary force when attacking government installations, and must respect the rights of all wounded and those wishing to surrender.]
Return To Top May 9, 2002
May 8, 2002
Satellite Proliferation threatens US Military
India's Own Beirut
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya May 7
Nepalese Army rout large force of Maoist rebels May 7
Al Qaida to go on European Rampage? Omar Mullah to retake Afghanistan? Really? May 7
Bin laden sets up new base May 6
Russia still awaiting proof of warlord's death May 6
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers May 3
Satellite Proliferation threatens US Military
By Alan Simpson forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
Last week saw a briefing in Congress which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Congressmen and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, issued the CSIS report "Preserving America's Strength in Satellite Technology".
Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld has called the War in Afghanistan, "The First Space-based War" for the reliance on satellite technology for communications, navigation, reconnaissance and command and control. But suddenly after twenty years of watching the US Space industry slide into bankruptcy, one company after another, the military have realized that they don't have the global bandwidth to play with their new found toys, such as the Predator. The lure of being able to fly reconnaissance missions half way around the world, then go home to watch the Redskins is a Pentagon dream come true. With the CIA tested ability to fly search and destroy missions with remotely piloted drones, pilots no longer need to risk being shot down, and can sit in military video arcades in Arlington, safe and secure.
Communications Satellites
The US military has also realized that countries other than Russia and the US can build communications satellites. Tired of being given the run-around securing export licenses from the USA, for satellite components, many countries have developed production, and testing capabilities. The problem now is that some countries even prohibit use of US built technology, "It's not worth the trouble" pointed out a South East Asian manufacturer. China now has the production capabilities for small efficient handsets, built
under sub contract for US and European Cellphone markets, rocket launchers, and satellite technology thanks to the Clinton Administration. It is now possible for China to consider matching, even jamming US military communication satellites, with the technology, and capabilities they posses. Russia is again building up it's space industry, realizing that what a US President promises, the US Congress may not deliver. There are over a dozen countries capable of creating a space-based communication network. Space communications are no longer the sole domain of the USA.
Imaging Satellites
The quality of the images from the recently launched Quickbird satellite has dismayed military planners, who demand the US military has "Shutter Control" over all satellites, regardless of who owns, or controls them. The 61 cm resolution images were classified Top Secret not many years ago, now they are available on the open market. John Hamre, former Deputy Secretary of
Defence, told us that the US military must be protected, by all satellites shutting off in areas where, and when the US military is conducting operations! The US demands sole control on intelligence interpretation. The Japanese are still smarting over the insistence that only US Intelligence images of Afghanistan only be used for coalition forces, and refused to allow Japan to buy images directly from Space Imaging, as the US had bought all images exclusively for it's own use. The huge loss of revenue for the
commercial operator will no be repeated.
The report accepted that the US is dependent on space, and is facing a threat it does not like, and cannot stop. The hawks demand the US use it's Star Wars technology to blast Chinese, and Russian satellites out of orbit. Even the French SPOT, seen as undermining US control of images. The report warns "A country cannot go blowing satellites out of the sky when they
displease it, and in any case the United States , which is more dependent on space than other nations, could regret a course of action that legitimized attacks on satellites." This gung-ho approach to bombing everything in space, as well as on the Earth, at which the US is displeased has brought an unexpected issue to light.
Star Wars Liability
If the US seeks to dominate Space with its new, and developing Missile Defence Shield, and tests rockets, lasers etc. by destroying spent rockets, and old US satellites, then the uncontrollable debris field from these explosions will be a serious threat to constellations such as GPS, Iridium, Teledesic and the proposed Gallileo, not to mention SPOT, Quickbird, and the weather satellites. George Bush may be Macho Man in Space, but firing his Space Guns, even to test them, may destroy his navigation, reconnaissance, weather forecasting and really upset the rest of the world.
Return To Top May 8, 2002
INDIA'S OWN BEIRUT
Forwarded by Ram Narayan, a story in Time Asia, May 13, 2002. Written by Alex Perry from Ahmadabad, Gujarat.
The talk at 24-year-old Abdul Hamid's wake is of murderous revenge. "If someone
gave me a gun, I'd kill a policeman," vows Gazala Qureishi, a pretty,
24-year-old business student whose anger draws respectful murmurs from the
mourners. "I would empty all six chambers into him. I have the guts to kill
those people, those stupid drunks who spill innocent blood here, rape girls,
murder us, because we are Muslim."
Qureishi's accusations are hard to deny: even
hardened nationalists admit that an overwhelming body of anecdotal evidence and
witness reports point to state complicity, and even involvement, in the
anti-Muslim pogrom. Hamid was simply another victim, says Qureishi, shot by a
policeman in the right kidney April 23 while standing in the doorway of his
family home. Up a narrow alleyway a few meters away, Qureishi points to the
quiet flagstone courtyard where on the same day she found Yusuf Khan, father of
four, beaten unconscious with steel pipes. She carried him to an ambulance, but
he died hours later. On the same street Abdul Munaf, 26, is nursing his bandaged
hand. The very day Hamid and Khan were attacked, a policeman's bullet passed
through Munaf's knuckles and grazed his chin as he threw rocks at the security
forces that were strafing his first-floor balcony. "God, please do justice to
them," hisses Qureishi as she navigates the rubble and the firebombed homes left
by two months of rioting. "Please God, give them death."
This is not the West Bank. This is Ahmadabad, the city where Mohandas Gandhi set
up his ashram, where dreams of a land in which religions could coexist
peacefully were born 83 years ago. Whatever the Hindu extremists say, there are
no Islamic terrorists in Ahmadabad now-but there will be if the assaults on
Muslims do not cease. Since Feb. 27, when a Muslim mob set fire to a train four
hours away in Godhra, killing 59 Hindus, Qureishi's neighborhood of Shahpur has
been under siege by Hindu rioters and the police. The official death toll for
the state of Gujarat is approaching 900. Human-rights groups and Western
governments put it at more than double that. What no one disputes is that the
overwhelming majority of the dead are Muslims. More than 20,000 Muslim homes and
shops have been burned down and some 113,000 Muslims made refugees. In the
5,000-strong community of Shahpur, 19 people have been killed, 58 seriously
injured and 26 homes destroyed.
In the past, conflict in India ebbed and flowed, with orgies of bloodletting
erupting then subsiding. Now, at least in Gujarat, the hostility is relentless.
The passageways through ancient city walls that used to link Shahpur to a Hindu
neighborhood on the other side have been welded shut in a permanent divide.
Armed with stones and petrol bombs, the young Muslims from Gujarat's camps and
ghettos now look-and think-like their Palestinian counterparts. "Every man and
woman here has a volcano in his or her heart," says Qureishi. "If defending our
home is terrorism, then terrorism is starting here." Noting that India is home
to 150 million Muslims-the second largest community in the world-she warns:
"India will explode."
It's hard to resist the charge that this sort of thinking is exactly what the
Hindu extremists and their sympathizers in the Bharatiya Janata Party national
government are trying to encourage. A central tenet of their Hindu purification
campaign has been a breathtakingly hypocritical insistence that Islam is the
inherently intolerant and violent faith. The argument falls flat without an
AK-47-toting Muslim fanatic to point to. But in Ahmadabad, no one thinks it will
be long before they start appearing. All the ingredients are there. State
oppression. Poverty and disadvantage fueled by wholesale discrimination. Fertile
recruiting grounds in the camps and ghettos. A ready weapons supply. (Gujarat
lies on a major arms smuggling route from Pakistan to the Bombay underworld.)
And enough past conflict for both communities to nurse historic grievances. The
calls for intifadeh and jihad have started-"I am telling people to fight," says
Imam Mohammed Ismail, 72, who lives at a refugee camp-and are being answered.
"This is not communal violence," says Javed Saiyed, a Muslim from Ahmadabad.
"This is civil war." All that is lacking is a Hamas or al-Qaeda. "We need
training," says Usman Qureishi, Gazala's 20-year-old brother. "And we need a
leader." And then India will have its civil war.
Return To Top May 8, 2002
May 7, 2002
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya
Nepalese Army rout large force of Maoist rebels
Al Qaida to go on European Rampage? Omar Mullah to retake Afghanistan? Really?
Bin laden sets up new base May 6
Russia still awaiting proof of warlord's death May 6
he Future of Warfare: Unmanned Robots? May 5
Iraq: New Developments and Analysis May 4
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers May 3
Khattab, Basaev, Chechnya
From our editor Kirill:
Khattab is indeed dead. Basaev is another guy, who might be also dead, but that's not certain. According to Saudi papers, Khattab's real name is Samar Suveilem, born 1967 in Arar, Saudi Arabia (north-east part near the Iraqi border) to a Jordanian (which means either a Palestinian or a Beduin) father and Turkish mother, the youngest of five sons.
In 1985 at the age of 18, influenced by the Saudi clerics call to jihad, he went to fight in Afghanistan (here the Saudi tale ends), under the same old Abdullah Azzam - bin Laden's mentor and commander of arab mudjahedeen in Afghanistan, although the young and poor Suveilem held a much lower rank then Osama obviously, and they've probably never even met. After then end of the war, he realized that fighting was the only thing he actually learned to do, he remained a "mudjahedeen", eventually ending up as one of the more famous "field commanders" in Chechnya. There were rumors about his ties with Pakistan's ISI, but they never really materialized.
After years of very brutal warfare, the Russians have finally caught up with him. The most popular theory of how he died seems to be a poisonous letter, sent to him courtesy of the FSB. While it might or might not be true, it doesn't really matter.
The important thing is why he died just now.
According to many intelligence sources, the arab mercenaries have started to leave Chechnya. Sponsored primarily by Iran, they slip through Georgia and the Turkish mountains, into Iran and Syria. Many of them - again, with Iranian sponsorship - have arrived to Lebanon, where they have joined the Hizballah guerillas, preparing for war with Israel.
While this exodus continues, someone had to stay and watch their backs, throwing the Russians off track. This someone turned out to be Khattab, and most likely not by his own free will. Apparently, he had some serious "disagreements" with the other arabs, about - what else ? - money. He tried to grab too much from the donations coming from wealthy Saudis to support their jihad, leaving the others unsatisfied.
I guess unlike in al Queda, there just wasn't enough for everyone to be happy. After all, their war with Russia is much less exciting now then bin Laden's war against America.
In any case, the arabs left him behind, the Russians exploited their inner fights, and managed to kill him.
Return To Top May 7, 2002
Nepalese Army rout large force of Maoist rebels
By Major Frank Hayes of AFI Research.
In what appears to be the most successful counter-insurgency operation by the Nepalese Army yet, it is reported that some 700 Maoist rebels have been killed in the last week. These included more than 400 guerrillas killed when they were trapped by a well-planned early morning heliborne assault on a jungle training camp complex in the western area of the country, the 48 hour battle resulted in the capture of significant intelligence material, arms, ammunition and left several large rebel groups scattered in nearby Jungle.
Nepalese Security Services had been tipped off that the rebels planned an attack on the nearby police garrison in Rolpa. It is understood that the Indian Intelligence Service, RAW had provided significant assistance through SIGINT intercepts and indeed the possible provision of a limited amount of advanced Israeli surveillance equipment.
The attacks are expected to continue for several more days concentrating on further Maoist bases discovered in the remote
hill regions of Rolpa and Pyuthan. Several elite Battalions of Nepalese troops along with Special Forces units, Police and trackers supported by Armed Helicopters have been involved in extensive firefights with the guerrillas,but the true measure of the success of the operation and the damage done to the Maoist infrastructure in this region of Nepal will remain unknown for some time yet.
Nepal hopes for increased US aid
The Prime Ministers spokesman Achhyut Wagle has already claimed this operation as a major defeat for the rebels,
however a more cautious assessment was made by the Defence Ministry when they admitted that an accurate assessment of the losses inflicted on the rebels had been hampered by both difficult terrain and bad weather.
A major military defeat for the Maoist insurgency would greatly strengthen Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's position in talks with both President Bush and Prime Minister Blair this week, where Nepals increased credibility may encourage a marked increase in military and economic aid for an increasingly fragile nation.
During a recent visit to Nepal, US Secretary of State Colin Powell promised unspecified help to Mr Deuba's government but the suggestion has been that it was on the basis that Nepal was able to show a greater degree of determination in dealing with the insurgency and it is now confidently hoped in Katmandu that Mr Deuba's plea for increased assistance will now carry more weight in both Washington and London.
Return To Top May 7, 2002
Al Qaida to go on European Rampage? Omar Mullah to retake Afghanistan? Really?
By Michael Crawford of MILNET, courtesy of our friends at AFI Research.
UPI reports that French newspaper says Al-Qaida is preparing to kidnap hundreds of Europeans. Is this a new escalation of the War or is it simply a scare tactic designed to give the re-elected President more power?
According to the French newspaper (cited by a UPI story published on 5/6/2002), the Al Qaida network is preparing for mass kidnappings of upwards to 200 citizens all over Europe, at theatres, churches and "even hijacking cruise ships."
Well that is pretty scary. However, since no sources are specified by any of those reporting on this particular scare, it gets a little harder to believe. And the timing the day after French elections...well, who knows. Let's look closer.
The newspaper (again according to UPI) gained its information from German intelligence sources in Pakistan. Now that seems like a reach. Let's see...the information is supposed to have been shared with other European intelligence sources.
Now wouldn't that mean that our friends in say Germany or Britain would have shared this devastating information with their American colleagues, since its pretty hard to tell the difference between say an Englishman, German or Frenchmen from a U.S. citizen visiting Europe (one of the biggest vacation spots for U.S. travelers)? Hmmm.
A quick check of our sources in the U.S. comes up nil. That's odd. Let's check MSNBC, CNN, and Fox Cable -- these guys will jump on any story of even the slightest value -- well there is an interesting assassination story on Fox News, seems a Dutch advocate of an immigration ban, right-wing politician Pim Fortuyn has been shot and killed. He was very vocally anti-Islam, according to Fox he "has criticized Islam as a "backward culture." Well that might upset an Islamic terrorist enough to assassinate him we suppose. But is this just the first of new terrors heaped on Europe by Al-Qaida. Nope. And no other hint to the events "disclosed" by the French newspaper. Even CNN which just loves to tout the drama of the Middle East and their attacks on U.S. and European citizens had NADA (that's Spanish -- mean's nothing or something thereabouts, pilgrim).
There IS a report that Mullah Omar is not only alive but just waiting for the right moment to strike at the heart of Afghanistan and take it back...with all the escaped troops he has at his beck and call. That's another good one.
And of course, there is the U.S. DoD complaining that it may be another year before they are finished in Afghanistan.
The reality though seems to be all much less than advertised. A U.S. assisted Canadian campaign has not found much to brag about -- empty caves, a few gunshots fired at them randomly from unknowns...similar to the touted Operation Snipe -- activity but not even hundreds of fleeing enemy. So where are Mullah Omar's forces hiding? In Pakistan? Special Ops guys from the U.S. are looking around, but so far, it's looking like either these guys are well hidden underground or perhaps, just perhaps, they just don't exist. Hmmm.
And then there is the oil story. That's the great one. Let's assume for a minute that the entire war was over oil. Wouldn't it seem reasonable for our troops to travel the length of an Afghan terroritory ripe for installation of a pipeline? Wouldn't it be a good idea to start that oil pipeline or have some oil companies go on in and start exploration, drilling and pumping? Wouldn't that pull the Al-Qaida and Taliban out of the hills like bears to honey? Hmmm.
MILNET's analysis: Bilge of the highest order. We are sure the Canadians and Brits are finding resistance in their "sweeps" of the mountains and caves, but seriously, folks, this is not a big and deadly military campaign. There are no divisions of resistance forces to quell. These are mop up operations.
Where is the opposition? Why all the concern with having Press along? MILNET believes that nice CNN lady who loves Al Qaida would be a great guest of the Brits or Canadians. Put her in a flak vest and we'll hear all about the hundreds of brave resistance fighters standing up to the onslaught of imperialist nasties from North America and Europe. Maybe we'll see some tracer fire from the other side as it makes the lady from CNN duck. Maybe. Do you seriously believe Renaldo would be in Bethlehem if there was intense fighting in Afghanistan? That guy has a death wish -- he'd be sneaking into the battle zone with Kleig lights on so the opposition would be taking pot shots to add drama. But there doesn't seem to be much drama in Afghanistan right now, just slow plodding, "Make Sure" work for the Brits and Canadians. And the U.S. guys? Non combat seems to be more dangerous. Somebody ought to be looking at why so many guys are killed in non combat operations. What gives? But back to the point.
Al Qaida, an international network? Yes. Could they bring off hundreds of kidnappings? Not likely. Mullah Omar going to take back Afghanistan? No Way!
But, let's try to be open-minded. Suppose Al Qaida COULD bring off some kidnappings in Europe. Say, maybe a dozen. Okay. What would be the result? Does anyone believe this would be good for Al Qaida? Europe has been quietly dragging their feet of late in the War on Terror. We assume Al Qaida would like things to continue like that for quite awhile. They need to recruit some new fodder. Europe has been a huge financial center for laundering Al Qaida funds out of the Middle East. Does anyone believe they want to screw that up? Al Qaida needs the Mosques in Europe to continue to preach their mantra of death to the West. They won't be able to do that if they stir up the Europeans.
A better plan -- maybe go into the Palestine refugee camps and find a bunch of martyrs, god knows they are being bred there by the dozens as Arafat continues to refuse peace. How about training camps in Iran? That works better. Stay away from Iraq, though.
Even an open-minded idiot would look at the French story as being bilge. But we could be surprised. Unfortunately, one thing the terrorists have shown is that they will do stupid things -- in fact anything, just to up the terror a notch. And they do seem to do a good job of taking advantage of open societies. We'll cross our fingers just in case
Return To Top May 7, 2002
May 6, 2002
Bin laden sets up new base
Russia still awaiting proof of warlord's death
British Troops Begin al-Qaida Sweep May 5
he Future of Warfare: Unmanned Robots? May 5
Iraq: New Developments and Analysis May 4
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers May 3
Turkish Move to Free UK Troops May 2
Bin Laden sets up new base
From DebkaFile
Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, and their top lieutenants were reportedly sighted last month at different places between the Little Pamir panhandle of northeastern Afghanistan, the Hunza region of Pakistani northwest Jammu and Kashmir, and the north Pakistani Karakoram Mountains further to the south - according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's exclusive intelligence sources. Despite the fierce campaign waged against him - notably in the Tora Bora cave complex of Afghanistan last December - the world's most wanted terrorist appears to be alive and kicking. Those sources stress that bin Laden has in no way changed his appearance.
The wanted terrorist chiefs appear to have established a new territorial base in these inaccessible regions, aided by the very Pakistani ISI intelligence officers whom President Pervez Musharraf purged earlier this year at US insistence for their pro-Taliban proclivities. Those ex-officers manned Pakistan's Inter-Service-Intelligence's Afghanistan Desk, which the United States demanded dismantled, accusing its staff of frustrating the US-led anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan and sabotaging every attempt to seal off the Afghan-Pakistan escape route. Some of the fired men were re-assigned to army units in remote parts of Pakistan; 500 were forced into early retirement - and many hired themselves out to bin Laden.
They have now set up for the al Qaeda chiefs a mobile operational command center that affords them control of the terrain and safety from hostile incursion by, say, US special forces.
Intelligence sources in Kashmir who spoke with DEBKA-Net-Weekly on condition of anonymity said these officers used their good connections in Pakistan and with tribal and village leaders to set up Bin Laden's new base in north Kashmir and Little Pamir. It cannot compare with the formidable system of camps and facilities al Qaeda commanded in central and western Afghanistan under the Taliban. On the other hand, the Saudi-born terror leader now holds sway over a weighty strategic asset, daunting to fight over or even access.
Till now, the US war effort in Afghanistan focused on toppling the Taliban and taking control of the main towns as well as the routes linking them. Bin Laden and his command level have consistently eluded pursuit. Now that he has put down new roots in one of the most forbidding and rugged areas in the world, our sources say that to go after bin Laden, the Americans would need the help of at least four governments of the countries abutting on his retreat - Russia, China, Pakistan and India.
Those nations have disparate interests in the area.
[If Bin Ladin really is in the above area the US will have no particular problem reaching him as all governments are already helping the US. In Pakistan's Northern Areas money plays exactly the same role as in the NWFP/Baluchistan. The difficulty so far has been that with so much money at stake, everyone is seeing Bin Ladin. The area described above is possibly the roughest of inhabited high-mountain terrain in the world. There is no manner in which he could have been in all those places unless he is traveling through Hunja, Gilgit and possibly Baltistan (depending on what exactly Debka means by southern Karakorams) by road. This is an exceedingly dangerous business as the roads are far and few in between and every outsider is noticed. Further, if Bin Ladin is in sufficiently good shape to go up and down mountains and mountain tracks in the 4000-6000 meter range, as far as we are concerned, more power to him.
We cannot rule out that some ex-ISI people are so adamantly opposed to President Musharraf that they will openly help Bin Ladin. Still, when the wind is blowing so strongly against you, it is not the South Asian way to battle the wind. South Asians lay low in such situations. If Debka is right, ISI people are playing with their lives to no good end. America is not going to let up; either Bin Ladin will die a natural death or he will be caught and killed. Those who helped him are likely to suffer. In any case, he can be no kind of force if he is always on the run. In the circumstances, to back him would be foolish. From what we know of the ISI, foolishness on the part of its operatives, past or present, is not one of its shortcomings. The men who back Bin Ladin leave their families as hostages: no South Asian would willingly do that. Remember how they got Omar Sharif? They rounded up his family. His aunt called him. He surrendered, because he is a South Asian. Family comes first. Editor]
Return To Top May 6, 2002
Russia still awaiting proof of warlord's death
An AFP story from the Times of India
MOSCOW: Russia said Sunday it still did not have proof that the wanted Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev was dead, after Russia's chief-of-staff last month announced the rebel leader's demise.
"I do not have firm proof of Basayev's death, but I do not doubt that it will come sooner or later," Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said Sunday, as quoted by the ITAR-TASS news agency.
Chechen rebels have consistently denied news of Basayev's death, while Russia's FSB intelligence agency also says it is unable to confirm the report by chief-of-staff General Anatoly Kvashnin.
Ivanov made the remarks during a visit to the Russian army headquarters on the outskirts of the Chechen capital, Grozny, ITAR-TASS added.
The bearded Basayev, 37, became Russia's public enemy number-one during the 1994-96 Chechen war, which led to autonomy for the breakaway republic.
He has sought to restore a 19th-century Islamic state in the Caucasus, and continued fighting despite losing a leg after stepping on a landmine in February 2000.
According to Moscow, Basayev led two rebellions in Russia's southern republic of Dagestan in August and September 1999 and was blamed for being behind a wave of apartment block bombings in Moscow and beyond which claimed 293 lives.
[We are mildly confused because we though Khatab is the one who is dead, allegedly poisoned by the Russians. Either way, we remind our readers neither Khatab nor Basayev would show any of us mercy if they had us in their power. Whatever we might think of the Russian operations in Chechnya, the insurgents are not to be compared to the Americans fighting the British or whatever. This is a bunch of fanatics akin to the Taliban. It's nice to be able to defeat your enemies playing by the Code of Civil Procedure or the Bill of Rights. If, however, the other side is willing to use any means necessary to kill you, keeping to the rules becomes a problem. The likes of Khatab and Basayev are not loose in America or Western Europe's back yard, otherwise we might have a different take on the morality of Russian tactics in Chechnya. The west is having a jolly time having the Russians do the dirty work while condemning their tactics, but beyond a point the stink of one's own hypocrisy drives one from the room. Editor]
Return To Top May 6, 2002
May 5, 2002
British Troops Begin al-Qaida Sweep
he Future of Warfare: Unmanned Robots?
Arafat Plans to Torpedo US-Led Diplomacy
Iraq: New Developments and Analysis May 4
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers May 3
Turkish Move to Free UK Troops May 2
Four Views On India's New Military Exercises May 2
British Troops Begin al-Qaida Sweep
An Associated Press story, from
Military.com. [Edited]
British forces on foot began canvassing as-yet unchecked territory in southeastern Afghanistan on Friday, poking into caves, bunkers and other mountain hide-outs in search of al-Qaida and Taliban fighters. The first four days of `"Operation Snipe'' had been devoted to gathering intelligence and getting forces from Bagram into position, he said. Already, Royal Marines have found a number of caves and historic defense positions on the way into their start positions.
About 1,000 troops have been deployed in the British-led mission, which is backed by U.S. air support and some U.S. special operations soldiers. About half the troops are Royal Marines from 45 Commando. The rest are Afghan infantry loyal to the interim administration of Hamid Karzai/.
Coalition forces have been stepping up operations along the eastern Afghan border with Pakistan, but British officers said this was a separate mission in a region that had never been searched by allied forces. [The operation is taking place near Shah-I-Kot.]
Operation Anaconda, the biggest U.S. ground assault of the Afghan war so far, swept the Shah-i-Kot area near the Pakistani border in March. In April, about 400 mostly British troops spent five days combing the region, and found what they called ``terrorist facilities,'' documents and anti-aircraft ammunition. The allies say that area of high desert has been a key resupply route for al-Qaida and Taliban soldiers.
A US spokesperson said military officials were somewhat surprised that they had not found any enemy troops yet, but suggested that could be due to the large stretch of territory being covered.
"It's a pretty vast, open area. A thousand troops aren't really that many people in that open, rugged area.''
A US spokesperson at Bagram said several hundred Canadian troops had arrived at Bagram ``for future operations,'' from the other main allied air base, at Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. The Canadians, members of the 3rd battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, were not planning to participate in Operation Snipe.
Return To Top May 5, 2002
The Future of Warfare: Unmanned Robots?
An article in Military.com by Alex Belida.[Edited.]
The war in Afghanistan has made the Predator unmanned aerial vehicle or UAV a virtual household name. Its eye in the sky sensors have spotted buildups of al-Qaida and Taleban forces, allowing U.S. troops and manned planes to conduct precision counter-strikes. But it is far from the only unmanned device in the military's arsenals. There are others designed to fly in the air, some that can operate on land and still more for undersea or surface ocean activity. They have nicknames like Dragon Runner, Fire Scout and Spartan.
Some are quite large, like the Global Hawk UAV, another pilotless reconnaissance drone used in Afghanistan. With its wingspan of more than 35-meters, it is bigger than a Boeing 737 jetliner and far larger than the mere 15-meter wingspan Predator.
But consider the new, as-yet-unnamed micro UAV. Drawing on technological advances in miniaturization, it is just a little over 20 centimeters in diameter and weighs a mere two kilograms. It is designed to be carried by a single soldier, whose unit can use it on the battlefield to effectively peer around corners, over hills or into forests, enabling commanders to decide whether to strike, call for reinforcements or evade.
Colonel Steven Nichols of Army's Training and Doctrine Command is involved in the development of the micro UAV. Instead of using a winged-type configuration with a propeller like Predator, the micro UAV is a little flying hovercraft, one equipped with a video eye.
The micro UAV is still in the experimental phase,
but the Navy's UUV or undersea unmanned vehicle may be ready for actual deployment in the year 2005. This device resembles a torpedo - no surprise since it is designed to be launched from a submarine. It is also intended to carry out surveillance.
Captain David Olivier of the Navy's Submarine Warfare Division said unlike UAV designers, the UUV team faced special challenges.
"Because of the medium that we're working in, undersea, you don't have continuous communications because we really don't have a way of having long-range, underwater communications with the vehicle and so what we have to do is invest in what we call intelligent autonomy so the vehicle itself can make decisions and process information and then take it back to the host submarine. So we will not be, it's not like anybody on the submarine will have a joystick and be controlling this UUV," he said.
These intelligent torpedoes would be used like this: they would travel out from a submarine up to 160 kilometers and then search a box-shaped area of more than 100 square kilometers in size for hostile ships, mines or other obstacles. The torpedo would then return to the submarine to transmit its findings.
"There's a rendezvous location and then the submarine uses an acoustic beacon that the UUV will actually come in on like an airliner approaching a landing at an airport. The UUV will track in an acoustic beacon and it will basically be latched into a nose cone kind of assembly and then be guided back into the torpedo tube," Captain Olivier said.
For the immediate future, these battlefield robots will probably remain tools, designed to assist human warfighters. But in the long run, especially as more unmanned devices take on weapons capabilities, some military officers believe they could turn future combat into battles between machines, with human controllers sitting safely in distant bunkers.
Return To Top May 5, 2002
Arafat Plans to Torpedo US-Led Diplomacy
From DebkaFile.
Now that Israel has released Yasser Arafat from confinement, American, European and Saudi sources are all talking fast in the hope of moving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict onto the diplomatic track. All that remains, they imply, is for Arafat to democratize his regime and transfer authority to non-violent hands - names of candidates for the succession are freely bruited about. The diplomats will then be free to get together for another Middle East peace conference and move the conflict forward from violent confrontation to discussion.
After receiving the Saudi crown prince last month, Bush hopes to start the diplomatic ball rolling this week when he sees the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, and Jordanian monarch, Abdullah II. He will listen politely to the Israeli leader's demand to cut Arafat out of any future diplomatic process.
None of this has much to do with the Palestinian leader's plans. According to DEBKAfile's intelligence and Palestinian sources, far from preparing to step aside, he is brooding on new schemes for upsetting the Bush-Abdullah-Sharon program, aiming to time a terror spectacular to coincide with Sharon's White House talks on Tuesday, May 7. It would not be the first time that a major terror strike has forced the Israeli prime minister to cut short his Washington trip and come rushing home.
Arafat appears to be considering three possible scenarios:
1. A fire or a bloodbath in the Church of Nativity in Bethlehem, for which Israel will be blamed;
2. A terrorist attack on the Jericho prison facility under American and British guard, to break the PFLP Secretary General Ahmad Saadat and financial adviser Fuad Shobaki out of jail.
The IDF has concentrated troops around Jericho to foreclose this threat.
3. A determined effort to overcome the back-to-back Israeli military counter-terror sweeps of West Bank towns and resume suicide attacks on Israeli buses and crowd centers.
Fearing an Arafat provocation in Bethlehem - and with the Orthodox Easter celebrated on Sunday, May 5 - the Americans and Israelis pushed hard to get the deadlocked negotiations restarted on Saturday, May 4.
No sooner did the parties get together, when chief Palestinian negotiator Salah Ta'amri resigned, furiously accusing an unnamed "Palestinian source" of passing to Israel the list of 20 wanted terrorists barricaded in the church.
DEBKAfile's sources name the source as Mohammed Rashid, Arafat's personal financial adviser who joined with the Israeli prime minister's chef de bureau, Dov Weissglass, to negotiate the terms for Arafat's release last Wednesday, May 1, from his Ramallah compound. Rashid fact arranged for the handover of the entire list of 123 individuals still trapped in the church after 90 came out and 6 were killed. Among them are 10-20 senior terrorists, who Israel demands for trial or exile to a third country.
The involvement of one of Arafat's top men in the Church of Nativity impasse can be interpreted as one of Arafat's circuitous ploys. He wants to keep the negotiating track open, but at the same time avoid being seen to surrender any more Palestinian militants after he was trapped into giving up Saadat and Shobaki.
Rashid is trying to deal with Israel on the basis of the complete list - all or nothing.
Certain intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Vatican, took fright when Arafat turned his rhetoric to the Church of the Nativity, shortly after the IDF lifted the siege on his Ramallah compound three days ago: "The Nativity Church," he declared", is the Palestinians' al Aqsa in Bethlehem."
For many years, the Arab world used the arson attack on the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem by an Australian called Michael Rohan, who was later certified as insane, as a stick against Israel.
On the night of Arafat's release, the wanted Palestinian activists barricaded in the church for five weeks started three small fires in the church compound. They were put out before they spread or damaged the fabric of the church, but signposted a threat - particularly now that the Palestinian leader badly needs a face-saver.
To win his freedom, he had to eat crow and hand the head of the second most important member of the PLO, the Palestine Front for the Liberation of Palestine, over to foreign custody. Now he must mollify the Palestinian and Arab masses and regain their trust. A terrorist spectacular in Bethlehem or Jericho - especially if timed to coincide with Sharon's meeting in the White House - might deflect their attention from his comedown. Even if the Church of Nativity negotiations end with a deal, Arafat is perfectly capable of vetoing it at the last minute or moving his confrontation to Jericho. In his case, even when it's over, it isn't.
Israeli forces have accordingly been beefed up in Bethlehem, together with substantial fire-fighting units. They are also standing ready in case of a Palestinian attempt to snatch Saadat and Shobaki in Jericho from their unarmed British and American wardens. Arafat loses face every moment the pair remains in American-British hands. He is not only accused of trading their freedom for his, but of a compound betrayal, planting the Americans and British in the heart of Palestinian territory, the powers the Muslims most hate for leading the war on the al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Arafat is also keeping a wary eye on his partners-in-Intifada, Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the Hizballah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, neither of whom will have taken kindly to his dealing with two nations committed to waging war against them. Both have staked heavily in the Palestinian struggle continuing. Saddam hands out stipends - $25,000 for the family of each suicide and $5-10,000 for the families of Palestinians who are killed or wounded in battle; the Hizballah sending over arms, terror experts and high explosives. At best, Arafat risks bitter recriminations; at worst, a physical threat - unless he moves fast to break up the Palestinian Camp X-Ray in Jericho.
Putting the problem in the hands of the Palestinian General Prosecutor will not keep either of them or Saadat's Damascus-based comrades at bay.
Informed Palestinian circles and Israeli intelligence sources estimate that Arafat faces a dilemma between taking action to break the two men out of confinement and rooting out the American-British presence, or letting his allies engineer the business from the outside.
The palaver in Washington next week may therefore be accompanied by the harsh sounds of violent action in Bethlehem or Jericho, or even suicides stalking Israel's city centers.
Return To Top May 5, 2002
May 4, 2002
Iraq: New Developments and Analysis
Afghanistan: Operations Snipe and Mountain Lion May 3
India Refuses Comment on Pakistan Referendum May 3
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers May 3
Turkish Move to Free UK Troops May 2
Four Views On India's New Military Exercises May 2
Change at the top at MI5, same as before? May 1
Iraq: New Developments and Analysis
From reader Gerry Hol:
"Eyes seem to be turning away from Afghanistan now and
toward a bigger and certainly more difficult enemy:
Iraq. As MILNET, AFI and yourselves have begun to
seriously look at the coming war against Iraq, here are some interesting
articles from alternative sources.
The first is from Pravda, and it seems to strengthen
MILNET's argument in a recent analysis that former
Soviet Republics may become staging areas for attacks
on Iraq."
FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS TO BE USED IN OFFENSIVE
AGAINST IRAQ
A meeting of Russian and American presidents is to
take place very soon, that is why the
USA hurries up to strengthen military presence on the
post-Soviet territory (Central Asia
and the Caucasus region). Military training in the
network of the US program for military
aid to Georgia is to start in Georgia at the end of
May and to last for 70 days, official
spokesman for the group of US instructors Colonel
Scott Tine said at the
press-conference in Tbilisi.
The first group of US commandos of 20 people in
number came to Georgia Monday late.
About 200 American soldiers are expected to come to
Georgia on the whole.
US instructors will train Georgian soldiers to
struggle with radical Muslim groups that are
allegedly connected with Al-Qaeda. It is believed,
Al-Qaeda members are taking shelter in
the Pankissi Gorge. Colonel Tine says, the program
provides for study of the Georgian
language and culture by US soldiers.
The American authorities report, the commandos will
stay in Georgia for about six
months. However, many people in Georgia suppose that
US soldiers may stay even for a
longer period. There is a suggestion that they will
protect the oil pipeline that is to
connect the Caspian fields with the Turkish port of
Ceyhan. Construction of the pipeline
that is to be laid on Georgia's territory, will cost
several billions of dollars. Other sources
suppose, Washington plans to found a standing
military base in the Southern Caucasus
close to Iraq and Iran.
The USA also pays enough attention to Central Asia.
General Paul Mikolashek,
commander of the US land forces is to arrive in
Tashkent in the second half of the day on
Thursday. A short visit provides for his meeting with
Uzbekistan Defense Minister Kadyr
Gulyamov and visit to the US Embassy in Uzbekistan.
General Mikolashek will spend less
than a day in Uzbekistan and will leave for Kuwait
Friday early.
Washington's activity in the region is not connected
with the events in Afghanistan,
although it is officially stated that inspection of
the US bases in former Soviet republics is
held within the network of the US-British operation
for Al-Qaeda and Taliban liquidation.
But the situation is much more complicated than it
may seem at the first sight. The USA
needs military bases in Central Asia and in the
Caucasus for a short-term period, as a
subsidiary base for an offensive against Iraq. As for
a long-term objective, the USA plans
to use the bases as a political, economic and
probably military pressure on the Central
Asiatic countries with a view to get control over oil
and gas that are abundant in these
regions. The Izvestia newspaper informs, it became
evident after Saudi Prince Abdullah's
recent visit to the USA. According to some sources,
the Iraq problem was not directly
discussed at the meeting, but the Prince declared,
his country was against US
intervention in Iraq, and Saudi territories would not
be provided for landing and refueling
of US planes. Moreover, Saudi Arabia will prohibit to
use its airspace.
The USA has to look for states that are ready to
provide territories for an offensive
against Iraq. Turkey, Kuwait and Qatar are really
convenient states situated near the Iraqi
borders. Over the past year the number of US
servicemen increased from 5,500 to
10,500. However, Washington is not sure so far,
whether Kuwait and Qatar would
support it.
The Pentagon considers Central Asiatic republics of
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Turkmenistan capable of providing second-echelon
bases, a prominent military expert
told the Izvestia newspaper.
The second article is from Debka-Net-Weekly, a sort of
a subscription based amalgamation of DEBKA and the
notorious WorldNetWeeky:
Armies prepare for U.S. Iraq attack: Each country
moves troops in anticipation of offensive
While no official word has been issued from any world
capital
concerning the imminence of a U.S. offensive against
Baghdad, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's
military experts report that the region's armies are
all busy in one way or another getting
ready for a surprise U.S. strike on Baghdad and its
regional backlash.
Our sources this week followed the heightened
movements of men, tanks, guns,
missiles, warplanes and carriers:
Iraq
For most of the last month, Iraq has been massing
troops in the west along the
Jordanian and Syrian borders for fear of a surprise
U.S. military assault on Baghdad by
ground or airborne troops from bases in Jordan, Israel
and the Sinai, or from aircraft
carriers in the eastern Mediterranean, DEBKA reports.
Two mechanized divisions and
the Republican Guard's Babylon armored division are
deployed at the al-Baghdadi
base near the town of Arbuta. Additional anti-aircraft
units have reinforced this facility.
Planes carrying chemical weapons have been spotted
recently at several Iraq airfields,
mainly the al-Sharaa military airbase 270 miles north
of Baghdad and west of the River
Tigris.
In the last two weeks, according to DEBKA, Israel has
stepped up preparations for
standing up to a nuclear, biological and chemical
attack. The Israel Defense Forces
high command has ordered new units to be set up
quickly for training in locating,
identifying and neutralizing nuclear, biological and
chemical substances. Thousands of
officers and soldiers, including reservists, have been
drawn from various branches of
the military and attached to the new units. They are
undergoing lightening two-week
NBC courses, at the end of which they are assigned to
permanent sectors.
One group has been based with commando forces as well
as the armored, mechanized
infantry, artillery and combat intelligence corps. A
second group will be deployed at key
points in Israeli cities, such as power stations and
water pumping facilities, and
distributed among street blocks.
Unit equipment and soldiers' personal gear are stored
close to these sectors of
operation, readily available in an emergency. These
trainees, officers and men are told
explicitly to prepare in the very short term for an
Iraqi attack that will include missile and
bomber strikes using nuclear, biological and chemical
weapons.
TV and radio stations were ordered to set up
alternative studios and broadcasting
facilities capable of functioning under Iraqi missile
attack.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources say Israel's high
command has given the national
home-front service until May 25 to complete the
formation of the new units as well as
their training and equipment. The home-front command
has received the rating of a
combat post. Only the northern command in charge of
Israel's volatile Syrian and
Lebanese borders has been ranked higher.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources add that at the
height of Operation Defensive
Shield in the West Bank 10 days ago, Israel secretly
began deploying large armored
contingents on its border with Egypt in the wake of
intelligence information on
Sinai-related Egyptian military preparations.
Egypt
Ten days ago, Egypt's Sinai Command was ordered to go
on operational footing in the
Suez Canal cities of Ismailia and Suez, DEBKA sources
say. The Sinai Command
goes on operational footing only when it prepares for
war. The Second and Third
Armies under this command have standing orders to meet
an outbreak of full-scale
hostilities by pushing into Sinai and taking up
positions to defend the Suez Canal. The
two armies have not as yet deviated from their regular
routines, nor have they called up
reserves.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report that Israel
quietly asked the United States
to sound out Cairo on its military preparations and
find out if there was any intention of
moving units into the Sinai, where strict troop
limitations have been in effect since Israel
and Egypt signed a peace treaty in 1979. Egypt replied
that military preparations in the
Middle East are advancing so rapidly that its high
command decided to take minimal
logistic steps to make sure it would not be caught
off-guard.
Saudi Arabia
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources say Saudi Arabia has kept
in place the troop
concentrations massed two weeks ago along its border
with Jordan - despite U.S.
President George W. Bush's assurance to Saudi crown
prince Abdullah in Crawford,
Texas, that no final date had been set for a U.S.
military offensive against Iraq. The
Saudi high command is taking no chances. Like other
military commands around the
Middle East, it is not ruling out a surprise U.S.
attack being launched at any moment
against Iraq. For his part, it appears that Abdullah
wants to show Washington he was
serious about his proposal to involve Saudi Arabia
militarily in the West Bank.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources, more
than half of the kingdom's
combat units are now in a state of readiness on the
Jordanian frontier.
They are the 14th armored brigade and the 8th and 20th
mechanized brigades.
Saudi Arabia's paratroop brigade is on alert at the
Tabuk base. The 12th armored
brigade and 6th mechanized brigade have left Tabuk and
moved northwest to a point
across from the Israeli and Jordanian borders, says
DEBKA.
Jordan
Over the past week, Jordanian units continued moving
east toward the Iraqi frontier.
They positioned their 4th and 20th mechanized
divisions across from Iraqi bases and
the H-3 airfield, according to DEBKA sources. Elements
of the divisions were deployed
in the northeast, near the point where the borders of
Jordan, Iraq and Syria converge.
Following the recent massive Saudi military
deployments along the kingdom's northern
border with Jordan, the Jordanians moved their 3rd
armored division south from the
Iraqi frontier to the Saudi border.
Syria
The Syrian army has taken up defensive positions in
four main areas: the Bekaa valley,
Baalbek, the Beirut-Damascus highway and the
Israeli-Syrian border in the northern
Golan Heights, near Mount Hermon and Shebaa Farms.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report a full
combat alert declared this week for
Syria's 1st armored regiment in the Damascus area and
the 2nd regiment in western
Syria and Lebanon.
The 10th mechanized division and elements of the 51st
armored division, stationed until
last winter in Beirut, have in the past few days
relocated from western and central
Lebanon to the Bekaa Valley on Lebanon's eastern
border with Syria. Some have taken
up defensive positions along the Beirut-Damascus
highway, DEBKA reports.
The 1st regiment commands the defenses of Damascus and
the Syrian-Israeli border
on the Golan Heights.
The 2nd regiment secures Syria's eastern frontier and
the Syrian expeditionary force in
Lebanon.
The 27th and 82nd armored brigades of the 3rd
division, and the 87th armored brigade
of the 11th division are on the ground in Baalbek in
eastern Lebanon, a Hezbollah
political and logistic stronghold.
Syria's elite 14th division, comprised of special
forces, has moved east, says DEBKA,
meeting at the Syrian, Lebanese and Israeli borders in
the northern Golan Heights, north
of Shebaa Farms.
Damascus ordered these military steps after asking
Iran to send new shipments of
Fajar-5 surface-to-surface missiles to Hezbollah units
in southern Lebanon. The missiles
have a range of more than 30 miles and can hit the
Israeli port city of Haifa and its
military, electronic and oil industries, and essential
utilities. Syria assured the Iranians, in
response to a query, that Hezbollah positions would be
authorized to fire the new
missiles as of the first week in May.
According to DEBKA sources, this news sent U.S.
Secretary of State Colin Powell
rushing over to Damascus in the middle of his Middle
East mission to defuse the
Israel-Palestinian crisis. He sternly warned Bashar
Assad that Israel would lose no time
in hitting vital Syrian military assets if the Fajar
missiles took to the air. Assad gave no
sign of his intentions, DEBKA says.
The third article is from STRATFOR regarding Oman's
recent shock statement, and makes the prospect of the
US operating from Central Asia even more likely:
Oman Statement Blow To U.S. Plans For Iraq
Omani Foreign Minister Yussef bin Alawi bin Abdullah
said in an interview published
May 2 that his government -- a key U.S. ally in the
Middle East -- would never allow a
military strike on another Arab country from its
territory, Saudi-owned daily Asharq
al-Awsat reported. The minister also warned the United
States against the
consequences of another offensive in the Middle East.
Yussef's statements refer to recent speculation that
Washington is preparing another
military campaign against Iraq. Oman's commitments in
both the Arab world and
internationally prevent the government from
participating in such an "adventure," he said,
adding that, "I believe the Americans know that very
well."
The announcement comes as a blow to Washington, which
for the last two decades has
used Oman as a logistics and intelligence center for
U.S. operations in the Persian Gulf
and Arabian Sea. Oman is host to U.S. Air Force
pre-positioning sites in Masirah, Seeb
and Thumrait, with enough equipment and fuel to
maintain three air bases and 26,000
support personnel.
The U.S. military has already used the base in Masirah
for its campaign in Afghanistan.
As of mid-January, Washington has stationed tankers,
bombers and Airborne Warning
and Control System aircraft in Oman to support
military actions in Afghanistan, as well
as AC-130 gunships and F-15E fighters.
Due to its proximity to Iraq, and the fact that it is
closer than Saudi Arabia to Afghanistan
and possible anti-terrorism target Yemen, Oman is
strategically advantageous for U.S.
military operations. But the government's refusal to
allow the United States to use its
well-supplied bases in Oman against Iraq could
severely impede efforts to begin a
military campaign against Baghdad.
The country earlier this year seemed to be positioned
as an alternative to Saudi Arabia,
another important location for U.S. forces that has
also reportedly refused to allow an anti-
Iraq strike from its territory. This leaves Bahrain,
Kuwait, Qatar and Turkey as
Washington's remaining options for bases of
operations.
Return To Top May 4, 2002
May 3, 2002
Afghanistan: Operations Snipe and Mountain Lion
India Refuses Comment on Pakistan Referendum
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers
Turkish Move to Free UK Troops May 2
Four Views On India's New Military Exercises May 2
Change at the top at MI5, same as before? May 1
Afghanistan: Operations Snipe and Mountain Lion
An AFP report from
The Nation of Pakistan.
Some 1,000 mainly British troops have launched a fresh operation against a 'key base' for alleged terrorists in southeastern Afghanistan, officers said Thursday.
Officers said the British-led 'Operation Snipe' targeted what was or had been a terrorist base in previously unexplored mountain terrain.
'So far there has been no fire from the enemy or coalition forces. Today we start moving in,' British Lieutenant-Colonel Paul Harradine told AFP at this coalition base north of Kabul.
It is the largest combat action for the British troops since they began deploying in Afghanistan in March to back up US and other coalition forces battling al-Qaeda and Taliban extremists.
'Elements of the coalition are now deployed in the southeast of Afghanistan in what is called Operation Snipe,' British task force commander Brigadier Roger Lane said.
He said allied troops, including Afghans, were 'equipped with a full range of combat power' and were operating in 'one of the few remaining areas that had never before been investigated by coalition ground forces'.
Harradine said the operation, which was British-led but involved US troops and air support, began four days ago.
He said members of the British 45 Commando were among 'about 1,000' troops deployed, but few other details could be released as the action was ongoing.
The location was not revealed, but Harradine said it was taking place in 'rough terrain, a high peaks area' between 8,000 and 13,000 feet (up to 3,940 metres).
Care was being taken to keep civilians living in the area out of harm's way. 'We want those on our side,' Harradine said.
US Major Bryan Hilferty said Operation Snipe was the largest maneuver within the overall US-led Operation Mountain Lion, which was announced overnight in Washington.
'Mountain Lion is a nationwide operation focused on eastern Afghanistan to capture or kill al-Qaeda. We have several operations going on. Snipe is the bigger one,' Hilferty said.
US officials in Washington said several hundred troops were now in Khost and Paktia provinces as part of Mountain Lion, and more could be brought in if needed.
British officers here said Snipe was taking place in another area, suggesting it may be further south in Paktia province, also bordering Pakistan.
One American official said coalition forces were pursuing small groups of suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Afghan side of the border, but not inside Pakistan.
'Small groups can become large groups but so far we don't see Anaconda-like regroupings,' he said in Washington on Wednesday.
Return To Top May 3, 2002
India Refuses Comment on Pakistan Referendum
From IRNA of Iran.
India on Thursday declined to react to the
referendum in Pakistan, won by President Pervez Musharraf to extend
his rule for five more years.
"We have seen reports of the results. We have no comments to
offer," India's External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nirupama Rao
told reporters Thursday when asked to comment on the polls.
India has maintained that the referendum is an "internal" affair
of Pakistan.
Of the 43.9 million votes cast, 42.8 million ballots were in
favor of President Musharraf and 883,676 against, with the rest
announced as invalid.
That meant 97.7 percent of those voted backed President Musharraf.
[Fifty-six percent of the electorate participated. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto says only 5% participated. Editor.]
Return To Top May 3, 2002
List of Pakistan Senior Army Officers
This open-source list compiled by our Pakistan correspondent Babur Mahmud is little changed from his November 2001 update. The real news of interest lies with the new batch of major-generals. Unfortunately, we lack the resources to do a proper analysis of that list. You will find the below update in the May 5, 2002 edition of orbat.com.
Full Generals
Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff. Gen. Aziz Khan
Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Pervaiz Musshraf
Vice Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Yousaf Khan
Principal Staff Officers
Chief of General Staff Lt.Gen Shahid Aziz
Adjutant General Lt.Gen Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani
Quarter Master General Lt.Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat
Chief of Logistic Staff (ex-MGO) Lt.Gen Imtiaz Shaheen
Inspector General Trg & Evaluation Lt.Gen Tauqir Zia
Military Secretary Lt.Gen Mohammed Akram
Corps Commanders
I Corps Mangla Lt.Gen Javed Alam Khan
II Corps Multan Lt.Gen Syed Shahid Sadeeq Trimzi
IV Corps Lahore Lt.Gen Zarar Azeem
V Corps Karachi Lt.Gen Tariq Waseem Ghazi
X Corps Rawalpindi Lt.Gen Syed Arif Hussain
XI Corps Peshawar Lt.Gen Ali Mohammad Jan Orkzai
XII Corps Quetta Lt.Gen Abdul Qadir Baloch
XXX Corps Gujranwala Lt.Gen Faiz Jeelani
XXXXI Corps Bahawalpur Lt.Gen Shahid Hameed
Inter Services Institutions
DG ISI Lt.Gen Ehsan-ul-Haq
DG Joint Staff HQ Lt.Gen Shahid Pervaiz
Commandant National Defence College Lt.Gen Javed Hassan
DG Air Defence Lt. Gen Khateer Hassan Khan
DG Heavy Industrial Complex Vaccant
Chairman Pakistan Ordinanace Factories Lt.Gen Abdul Qayuam
DG Weapon & Equipment Lt.Gen Mushtaq Hussain
Dir Army Welfare Org Lt.Gen Pervaiz Massuad
Commander Army Strategic Force Lt. Gen Ghulam Mustafa
DG Strategic Planing Lt. Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai
The officers to watch are the corps commanders. They are the Praetorians. The Inter-Service Intelligence chief is, of course, important, but without the corps commanders no head of the army can maintain his rule during periods of dictatorship. This is understandable, because the corps commanders actually command the fighting troops.
Return To Top May 3, 2002
May 2, 2002
Turkish Move to Free UK Troops
Four Views On India's New Military Exercises
Change at the top at MI5, same as before? May 1
General Musharraf Expected To Win Referendum May 1
Debka's Analysis on Mideast Developments May 1
The Fourth Pakistan Military Government April 30 - Please check March 29, 2002 - to April 30, 2002
Two American Views On The Coming Gulf War April 29 - Please check March 29, 2002 - to April 30, 2002
Turkish Move to Free UK Troops
Our Executive Editor Johann Price writes after the news that Turkey is to assume command of ISAF:
Finally, official confirmation from the Turks after months of negotiations. This has a direct bearing on Iraq. The UK was able to handover Multinational Brigade HQ to the Germans in March 19, freeing up HQ 16 Air Assault Brigade. After the Loya Jirga the British should be able to free up HQ 3 Armored Division and the remaining units of 16 Air Assault Brigade in Afghanistan as part of ISAF.
Return To Top May 2, 2002
Four Views on india's New Military Exercises
With thanks to our friends at Stratfor.com and Amitav Dutta.
Indian War Games Make A Point With Washington
Strafor.com
The Indian military began large-scale operational maneuvers along the border
with Pakistan, in Rajastan and Punjab states, April 30. The exercises, called
Parakram II, originally were planned for late May but recently were moved up on
the calendar.
The timing of the maneuvers is key: It comes as Pakistani troops are becoming
more active in western Pakistan, where they are seeking al Qaeda and Taliban
militants. Key Pakistani units that would normally be stationed near the Afghan
border now are under pressure to move east in order to help beef up the border
with India. Although it is unlikely that the Indian military plans to engage
Pakistani forces, the maneuvers are a signal that such an operation is possible
-- unless Washington continues to make political, economic or military
concessions to New Delhi.
The Parakram II exercises follow on the heels of India's original Parakram I
deployment to the Pakistani border in December. Parakram I was reportedly
India's biggest mobilization of the armed forces since its 1971 war with
Pakistan. The current exercises reportedly involve all three Indian defense
services -- the army, air force and navy -- and all the strike corps of the
Indian army.
Although invading Pakistan is militarily feasible for Indian forces, politics
are quite another matter. It is extremely unlikely that New Delhi wants to risk
the domestic disruptions and international condemnation that would follow such a
move. Nevertheless, the Pakistani military must respect the Indian operations
and deploy troops to counter them -- both out of caution over India's intentions
and to appease Pakistani hard-liners who demand that Islamabad not show any
weakness.
The problem for Pakistan is that the 11th and 12th military corps -- which are
vital reserves in a potential conflict with India -- are needed in western
Pakistan, where they normally are stationed. In January, after Indian troops
began to move to the border, Islamabad pulled elements of the 11th and 12th
corps off the Afghan border and shifted them east.
Pakistani and Western news sources are reporting daily conflicts between U.S.
and al Qaeda forces in western Pakistan. Islamabad needs to keep troops in the
area, especially if it is planning to increase operations against al Qaeda now
that President Pervez Musharraf's five-year term extension seems assured.
Simply put, Pakistan cannot assist the United States against al Qaeda and defend
itself against India at the same time. India is illuminating this point in no
uncertain way.
New Delhi is showing Washington that its cooperation is just as important as
Pakistan's in the fight against al Qaeda -- and that its needs must be taken
into account. These needs may range from military equipment, such as the eight
weapons-locating radar systems the United States sold to India earlier this
month, to economic or political concessions.
India advances military exercise on Pak border
[Source did not reach us in time, but the article is from the Indian press.]
India has advanced the date of the planned
military exercise on its western borders
which was originally to be held sometime
after 21 May 2002, top officials said.
Officials said that the military exercise
could start any time from now and is expected
to continue for a period of one month.
India is planning to carry out a
massive military exercise on its
western borders involving all the
three Indian defence services, the
army, the air force and the navy.
All the strike corps of Indian Army
are to take part in this military
exercise.
Analysts say that India wants to
communicate strongly its military
intent to Pakistan through this
exercise in response to Pakistan's
insensitiveness to India's concerns
for cross-border terrorism.
Advancing of the military exercise is
intended to put added pressure on
Pakistani dictator General Pervez
Musharraf on the eve of the 30-April
referendum on his continuance in
power, an analyst said.
The exercise has been codenamed
as Operation Parakram II, said an
official.
The Indian Air Force and Navy would
be participating in the exercise
alongwith the Indian Army and
various joint military manoeuvres
would be carried out.
The Indian Navy will have a
low-key participation in the
beginning of the exercise and
its level of participation will
be expanded at a later stage,
an official said.
There has been a massive
deployment of Indian troops
along the India-Pakistan
border ever since the
13-December Pakistani
terror attack at India's
Parliament complex.
From the Leading Indian Defense Forum
Sunil Sainis expresses an opinion on Bharat-Rakshak.com that several others also express or agree with. The post has been shortened.
The day we want to send a message to the US, we may actually withdraw our forces from their current positions.
Without us to tie down the 11 and the 12 Corps, there is little chance of the US being able to operate in the FATA without serious obstructions. Please understand the US can bomb whatever it likes in the FATA but if their troops start having to engage uniformed Pakistani troops in the area, the conflict will widen in its scope. That is an outcome that I sense the bulk of the powers that be are not really willing to deal with at this point.
A Semi-Official View: Army exercise along IB in Rajasthan routine
The Press Trust of India is owned by the Government of India but can be quite independent in its views.
Jodhpur, May 1. (PTI): Terming the exercises being conducted by the Army along the India-Pakistan Border in Rajasthan as "routine", a defence spokesman today said no significance should be attached to it.
"The Army personnel deployed on the border cannot sit idle. They have to do some routine training exercises and that is what they are doing. No significance should be attached to it," he said.
Reports said the current exercise, `Operation Bramashava', which began on Sunday, would continue till May 15.
Return To Top May 2, 2002
May 1, 2002
Change at the top at MI5, same as before?
General Musharraf Expected To Win Referendum
Debka's Analysis on Mideast Developments
The Fourth Pakistan Military Government April 30 Please check March 29, 2002 - to April 30, 2002 for all April stories.
Two American Views On The Coming Gulf War April 29
U.S. May Be Reviving Iraq Issue as Smoke Screen April 28
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim April 26
Change at the top at MI5, same as before?
By our colleague at AFI research, Richard M. Bennett. Mr. Bennett's latest book, ESPIONAGE, will be released by Virgin on June 6, 2002.
Supporters of Eliza Manningham-Buller the present Deputy Director-General of MI5 are doing their very best to influence the British Government on the appointment of a new Director General. The present incumbent, Sir Stephen Lander retires in October 2002 and is believed to want his deputy to succeed him. A veritable snowstorm of press leaks and confident predictions that Ms Manningham-Buller is the strongest internal-candidate and likely to get the seal of approval ahead of the three over main candidates leaves little doubt that the Lander camp are doing their best to ensure a smooth hand over later this year.
It was reported that both Stephen Lander and Ms Manningham-Buller had threatened to resign in 1996 as part of a skilfully organized campaign to ensure that Lander succeeded the since disgraced Dame Stella Rimington and it has been evident that Ms Manningham-Buller has been seen by many as the likely successor to Sir Stephen Lander, particularly since her appointment as Deputy Director- General five years ago when she was leapfrogged over an experienced male colleague to become Sir Stephen's number two with responsibility for operations and administration. Ms Manningham-Buller had been responsible for 'A' Branch which handles surveillance operations and is believed to have developed considerable knowledge of the covert world of telephone monitoring, 'bugging', burglary and the 'watchers'. In the 1990s she spent time at British Embassy in Washington as MI5 liaison officer to the FBI where she gained respect for her abilities if not becoming well liked by her US colleagues.
Still just a change of a fresh face in MI5
However, not everyone in the present Labour Government is so enamoured of an Officer who is not well liked in MI5 where she is widely considered as 'charmless', lacking in real man-management skills, and rather more aggressive than Dame Stella. Her apparently well earned nickname is 'bullying manner' and amongst the more irreverent members of MI5's chattering class the present DG and his DDG are known as 'Batman & Robin'. There remains the outside possibility that the Government may listen to the insider dissidents who believe the task of modernising MI5 might be better done by an outsider with fresh eyes rather than a career security officer. The final recommendation comes through a high-powered Civil Service selection board, and it is the Home Secretary, David Blunkett who makes the key decision which has to be approved by the Prime Minister.
However, whoever is appointed as the new Director-General next month will face expanding and modernizing the service to meet the challenges posed by the September 11th terrorist attacks and particularly 'G' Branch which deals with international terrorism. While it will remain important that 'T' Branch and the threat of renewed attacks by the Real IRA and doubts about the long-term commitment of the Provisionals to peace should not be neglected, organized crime and a growth in far right wing and neo-fascist groups are also causing growing concern in MI5 and will again feature prominently in the new DG's diary. After the end of the cold war the leadership of security and intelligence services throughout the West were left scratching around for new roles to play in order to maintain their staffing levels, budget and in some cases their very existence. Osama Bin-Laden has ensured that MI5 and the other services are back where they feel they belong, at the centre of the secret Government where they retain great influence without a shred of meaningful responsibility to the electorate.
Return To Top May 1, 2002
General Musharraf Expected To Win Referendum
From the Nation of Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD--Pakistanis voted Tuesday in a referendum that will almost certainly see President Pervez Musharraf, who led a military coup in 1999, cement his grip on power for five years.
People were seen lining up at polling stations before the 9:00 am start, with initial indications showing a reasonable turnout in rural areas but little interest in major cities like Karachi and Lahore.
Most people at the polling stations expressed strong support for Musharraf, while others showed their intent by riding around the streets on motorbikes with the general's face stamped over Pakistani flags.
Musharraf, who named himself president in June last year, is hoping to legitimise his position ahead of general elections scheduled in October.
"I feel good and I feel confident," he told reporters after casting his vote in Rawalpindi, adding however that he had never before run in any kind of election campaign. "I am hopeful -- I have no experience of these things."
Opposition political and religious parties have urged their followers to boycott the vote, accusing Musharraf of shredding the 1973 constitution and trying to manipulate the outcome.
Return To Top May 1, 2002
Debka's Analysis on Mideast Developments
We have been asked by an Israeli reader to remind our readers that Israelis, as participants in a fractious democracy, espouse a very wide range of political views. In this wide range, Debka may be about as far to the right as is possible in polite society. We appreciate the reminder; nonetheless, we believe our readers are quite able to read Debka with a certain skepticism of their own. A few days back, for example, Debka speculated that the gunmen involved in the attack on a Jewish settlement could be from the IRA because they were said to be pale-skinned and efficient. Now, your editor has not been in the Mideast for 33 years, but unless some genetic mutation has taken place in the population, light-skinned Arabs are hardly a rarity. The Arab-Israeli confrontation has much to do with race, yet to assume that just because someone conducted an efficient raid they must be European white is somewhat over the top. Last, we wonder if the IRA is much interested in penetrating several rings of Israeli security forces to kill Jewish settlers.
That said, your editor must confess that each day, after he checks the Times of India headlines, he turns next to Debka. While Debka often makes absolutely zero sense, anyone who has to read it must admit it is well done, and it is fascinating.
From DebkaFile.
The UK did not need a second invitation from George W. Bush to come roaring back to the Middle East to Yasser Arafat's rescue - with Javier Solana's European Union outfit riding in on its back.
The initial arrangement was cautious: The British would arrive in the innocuous, limited form of a joint Anglo-American guard to make sure that the six Palestinians, whose extradition Israel demanded as its condition for releasing Arafat, stayed in their Palestinian jail. Once they were handed over to their international custodians, the Israel siege tanks pinning them and Yasser Arafat down in his Ramallah headquarters would roll back, Arafat would be free to travel and the US would begin hauling itself out of the Palestinian-Israeli mire.
Its place would be filled by Europeans, led by the UK.
To get the ball rolling, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon was first bulldozed Sunday, April 28, into driving through his government the initial formula of an American-British guard for the six wanted men: the four PLFP killers of Tourism Minister Rehavam, the PLFP Secretary Ahmad Saadat who dispatched them, and Arafat's financial director Fuad Shobaki, who organized funds for the Karin-A arms smuggling venture and terrorist operations.
According to DEBKAfile's sources in Washington and Israel, Sharon, by bowing to Bush's insistence on this first step, has dug a deep pit at Israel's feet and set the region on the path to seismic geo-strategic shifts. Nothing can now stop the Europeans, led by the eager British, from restoring Yasser Arafat's standing as Palestinian leader and reconstructing Palestinian security bodies, the very infrastructure that Israel's military painstakingly knocked down in its month-long counter-terror sweep through Palestinian West Bank towns.
This single decision goes a long way to reversing Israel's military achievements in fighting off Arafat's Intifada terror offensive. In some ways, it turns the clock back, rendering almost irrelevant the 774 Israeli victims who died - and ten times that number injured - in the years of Palestinian terror following the signing of the 1993 Oslo accords that brought Arafat into the country.
The Israeli prime minister and a majority of ministers were swayed by two arguments. One, the US president's national security adviser Condoleeza Rice's claim to the prime minister's adviser Danny Ayalon, that Israel's refusal would undercut the Bush administration's entire Middle East strategy, and obstruct the US military offensive against Iraq, as well as its war on global terror as a whole. Israel would not escape blame for upsetting Washington's plans.
The second argument came in the form of President Bush's non-specific commitment to stand by Israel.
During his telephone assault on Sharon Saturday and Sunday, April 27 and 28, Bush made two things clear, which the prime minister refrained from sharing with his cabinet colleagues:
One , that the US would supervise the restoration of Arafat's fortunes and reconstruction of Palestinian security services from afar: the British would be in charge of the fieldwork.
Two, the British were brought in to satisfy Arafat.
Sharon did disclose to the cabinet that the senior British staffer on the spot would be Alistair Crooke, a former high-ranking MI6 man and European Union's Javier Solana's representative in Jerusalem. Washington's decision to move into a backstage supervisory role was not revealed. Bush could have retained a more active share in the project by sending retired general Anthony Zinni back to the region. This was not suggested by the United States or Israel.
Not letting the grass grow, the British advance party of "security experts" quietly arrived Monday night, 24 hours after the Israeli government decision. Their first job is to deal with the technicalities for the transfer of the six wanted men to a jail in Palestinian territory - presumably the British-built prison facility in Jericho. The four sentenced assassins are less of a problem than the Shobaki and Saadat who have not been tried for their crimes. Israel is demanding that they too be locked up in prison. A solution remains to be worked out.
The British trio signifies the onset of a complex gambit that furthers the Bush administration's desire to throw off the Israel-Palestinian encumbrance and mute its Middle East involvement in favor of building up Central Asian assets. Washington is handing the Middle East standard over to its British surrogate.
This gambit seriously damages Israel.
Sharon was duly warned more than once from the Oval Office to hold his horses in Operation Defense Shield, to pull Israeli forces out of Palestinian towns and turn to diplomacy - or else Washington would go its own way. The Americans signaled their intentions to Sharon shortly after Israel launched its massive drive into Palestinian cities, in response to the Palestinian Passover suicide rampage against Israel civilians.
The signals sharpened before and during the Saudi crown prince Abdullah's weekend stay at the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas.
The Israeli prime minister failed to heed the signals, too single-mindedly engrossed in waging war against Arafat's terrorist infrastructure. As a result, he has been lurching in the last ten days from one diplomatic contretemps to the next, squandering hard-won strategic assets in the process, with the following consequences:
A. The grand US-Israeli plan for cutting Arafat down and consigning him to the Gaza Strip has been tossed aside, together with its companion blueprint for establishing self-rule on the West Bank under the auspices of the Kingdom of Jordan. The blow sustained by Israel - in no small measure under Saudi influence - has also hit Abdullah II of Amman, who based his fundamental policies on a strategic partnership with the United States and Israel. The Saudi crown prince achieved two strokes in Crawford: he got the Israeli army out of Ramallah and blocked Jordan's reinstatement on the West Bank.
B. In contrast, The Palestinian authority will be reinstated - possibly on different lines with fresh faces, according to British and the European concepts. Arafat will be re-confirmed as top man.
C. The Palestinian security agencies, whose primary function was to mastermind terror, will be rebuilt too by the same hands. The Americans are prepared to admit off the record that the CIA failed abysmally in its efforts to create effectively functioning security agencies following the conclusion of the Oslo accords. The British will certainly pursue their own ideas and install their own agents in the restored bodies.
D. The British teams taking over in Palestinian-ruled territory will function on three levels:
The Foreign Office's Arab-Palestinian experts, "security personnel" - who are actually officers of the British secret service, MI6, and former commandos trained in guerrilla and counter-terror tactics.
E. Those three groups will become the kernel of a larger international force made up mostly of European intelligence and military officers, to which American advisers will be attached as supervisors. This arrangement means the termination of the familiar trilateral US-Israeli-Palestinian security coordination commissions that were mostly moribund anyway. Their infrastructure will be handed over to the British.
F. Israel will eventually have to re-address its security and political concerns with the Palestinians to the British Foreign Office instead of the State Department in Washington. Many Israelis will rub their eyes in disbelief at the return of the Union Jack, the Foreign Office and MI6 to Palestine - and even more at the notion that Ariel Sharon let it happen.
It is not a happy prospect for Israelis, who are perfectly aware of the pro-Arab winds blowing consistently from London since 1948. Yasser Arafat's installment as head of an independent Palestinian state has always been a key policy goal for the British government and its intelligence agencies.
What remains to be seen is how Arafat will use his fresh lease of life. Will he entrap the British in his toils as he did the Americans, making them the unwilling sponsors of his terrorist activities? Or will he reward Britain for standing by him by setting up an Anglo-Palestinian front against Israel?
Return To Top May 1, 2002
April 30, 2002
The Fourth Pakistan Military Government
Two American Views On The Coming Gulf War April 29
Iran Does Not Parade Shahab-3 April 29
U.S. May Be Reviving Iraq Issue as Smoke Screen April 28
India clears new artillery division April 27
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim April 26
The 19-km Fence: A Commentary by the Editor April 25
The Fourth Pakistan Military Government
[The referendum on extending President/General Musharraf’s rule for another five years is taking place in Pakistan today. Major A.H. Amin writes regularly for Orbat.com. As Pakistan is ahead of us time wise, a longer version of this article has already appeared in the Nation. Because the original was written for a strictly Pakistani audience, we have edited the article for other readers.]
The French may be proud about their many republics but Pakistan has the notorious distinction of producing four military governments. The first military government[Field Marshal Ayub Khan, 1958-69]derailed the constitutional process which Mr. Jinnah had initiated and sowed the seeds of East Bengal’s secession. The Second Military Government [General Yahya Khan 1969-71] made an honest attempt to restore adult franchise which had been destroyed by the first military government, held the country's first general elections based on adult franchise but could not extinguish the flames of provincial hatred which had been started by the First Military Government. Thus it presided over Pakistan's second sub division i.e. creation of Bangladesh. The Third Military Government [General Zia-ul-Huq, 1977-1988] usurped power with the promise of holding free and fair elections and did not hold any for the next eleven years. It re-introduced religion in politics for political ends, maneuvered over the issue of Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan to get a three billion dollar aid package from USA and held on till its leader was removed in mid air by an unnatural death.
Pakistani history can be divided into three civilian periods and four military periods. The country fought three wars during this period, two in the military period. The civilians held power for some 27 years while the soldiers for some 28 years. Statistically, this means that the soldiers are as responsible for the mess in which Pakistan is today as the civilians. Mr. Z.A. Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif, two politicians most criticized by the military and their mouthpieces were introduced into politics by the first and third military government of Pakistan. Both were good as long as they courted the military and became bad once they exercised some strong will.
How will Pakistan's Fourth Military Government be judged by history? There are similarities and differences in the various military governments which provide some answers to these questions. The First Military Government launched a bloodless coup against a weak prime minister and a soldier cum civil servant president who was initially a confederate and then removed. [The reference is to President Iskander Mirza who was deposed by the then General Ayub Khan within three weeks of declaring martial law in 1958.] There were no political disturbances in the country before or after the takeover. The Second Military Government came into power after serious political disturbances and departed in 1971 without solving Pakistan's political problems, and after military defeat and humiliation. The Third Military Government also came into power after political disturbances, and stayed in perpetual conflict with Pakistan Peoples Party till General Zia died and power was handed over to Pakistan Peoples Party [Ms. Benazir Bhutto] after Pakistan's second free and fair elections based on adult franchise.
The Third Civilian Government was different from a normal civilian government. It functioned under a threat of constant dismissal under a president who had close links with the military and no business to be the president. Thus the Third civilian government was not autonomous or sovereign in the true sense. Thus the dismissal of two prime ministers [Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif] by a president with close links with the Zia junta. The year 1997 was crucial since the 8th Amendment was scrapped and true parliamentary form of government was established in the country. This important change was not accepted by the military, and the first crisis occurred once the army chief Jahangir Karamat was forced to resign by the Prime Minister in 1998. The Karamat exit was a crucial affair in Pakistan's constitutional history. Civilian supremacy over the military was exhibited for the second time in Pakistan's constitutional history, the first being General Gul Hassan Khan's dismissal by Z.A. Bhutto. This act was not digested by the military junta. This in turn produced an urge to vindicate a lost image which would project the military and ridicule the politicians. Thus the Kargil Affair of 1999 in which Pakistan suffered many casualties and gained nothing strategic or even tactical. The Kargil debacle intensified the power struggle between the military top brass and civilian supreme political authority. The period between June 1999 and October 1999 was a period of undeclared war. It was a period of maneuvering and counter-maneuvering, a clash of egos rather than any principles. The then prime minister wanted to sack the army chief and the army chief wanted to complete his term. This finally led to the exit of the prime minister in circumstances that were comical as well as ironical.
General Musharraf presented a seven point agenda, very idealistic, high sounding albeit utopian. The difference at this stage in time must be brought out. The Nawaz-Musharraf clash was not a clash of principles but that of ego. What happened between June and October 1999 was tactical maneuvering, a prime minister intriguing against his army chief and an army chief intriguing against the prime minister. Military takeover in October 1999 ended this petty tactical process.
A strategic change had occurred. The whole exercise had to be rationalised. Thus a high sounding seven point agenda and a process of accountability. The same politicians who had been wooed by soldiers, civilians and businessman were now condemned as corrupt. In the process of defending a second position in the country's institutional hierarchy the army chief was forced to assume greater political responsibility. Thus a Fourth Military Government was thrust upon Pakistan for which neither the country was ready and even the military was clueless.
The Fourth Military Government started with a tactically shrewd agenda. Strike the politicians where they are weak. No one questioned the fact that only the politicians were under attack.
The self styled military Mandarins and Grand Strategists could not devise a strategy to protect Pakistan in 24 years and the result was in front of the world in 1971. If they could be excused for a myopic approach with regards to East Pakistan in the political realm what was the excuse for strategic and operational incompetence in 1965 and 1971.
A study of history proves that repeatedly the right things have been done for the wrong reasons. Ayub Khan the first military usurper of Pakistan began his tenure under the same guise. Chasing corrupt officials, disqualifying corrupt politicians for the first four year till he finally succumbed to the lures of gold. What he did was done not because he was a good man but because the merits and the rationale for his military take over had to be justified. A dispassionate study of the Fourth Military Government proves that sub consciously its key persons idolize the First Military Government. A liberal ethos as anesthesia for the multitude. A resolve to get a five-year term as a liberal president. On the other hand, there are tactical amendments to the rule. The combination of civilian and military head in one person has been borrowed from the Second and Third Military Government.
The Fourth Military Government is lucky in the sense that it has wisdom and follies of three military governments to draw conclusion from. The people of Pakistan are unluckier. More sophisticated methods have been found to rule them. The danger lies not in the fact that General X is a good or bad man but in the fact that he is on the helm of affairs based on institutional power. Temporary institutional power that is very strong but very fragile at the same time. The danger lies in the fact that Pakistan is condemned to Perronism, an unstable political future.
The First Military Government was removed by a popular agitation. The Second was removed by defeat in war. The Third because a changed geopolitical situation did not allow its existence. The Fourth Military Government faces little political dissent, not because it consists of angels but because the populace is too much in the grip of economics and uncertainty. The present geopolitical situation favors it since like all successful regimes it is toeing US policies. Even confrontation with India favors it since it forces the populace to elect a military dictator.
It would, however, be good for the present junta to study the actions of those who are its key supporters. These men were around all who were in power and will outlast Musharraf as they outlasted Zia, Benazir, Nawaz Sharif etc. The army, which now claims to be cleaning the mess, is thus dealing with its own creations. Hopes of devolution are utopian. Ideology or good intentions have played a limited role in our history.
Ayub took over because of his fears of not getting another extension. Zia's actions from 1977-88 had no connection with Islam but with perpetuating his personal power. Why then should the present set up devolve power? Noble intentions or mere induction of whiz kids in cabinets without any great man at the helm of affairs or a great idea to execute does not lead to any great results. A glance at our fifty-year-old history proves that mediocrity has been institutionalized in our higher leaders.
The question with the Fourth Military Government remains: Can men who initiated the whole process for personal reasons solve national problems? The answer must be no. We are condemned for eternity. Pity the nation whose governments are changed only after defeat in war or mysterious air crashes.
Return To Top April 30, 2002
April 29, 2002
Two American Vies On The Coming Gulf War
Iran Does Not Parade Shahab-3
U.S. May Be Reviving Iraq Issue as Smoke Screen April 28
The Mysteries of Saudi Troop Deployments
India clears new artillery division April 27
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim April 26
The 19-km Fence: A Commentary by the Editor April 25
Two Amercian Views On the Coming Gulf War
The New York Times scenario is closest to the scenario developed in considerable detail by our editor Johann Price and contributor Tom Cooper. For the complete articles, please click on the links provided.
New York Times of April 28, 2002.
(NY Times) - The Bush administration, in developing a potential approach for toppling President Saddam Hussein of Iraq, is concentrating its attention on a major air campaign and ground invasion, with initial estimates contemplating the use of 70,000 to 250,000 troops. The administration is turning to that approach after concluding that a coup in Iraq would be unlikely to succeed and that a proxy battle using local forces there would be insufficient to bring a change in power. [The rtimes speaks of an invasion early next year. Editor.]
The Boston Globe.
Leading Pentagon officials are putting the final touches on a military plan to invade Iraq, perhaps as soon as this summer, according to two senior administration officials.
Reports had indicated that the Defense Department would not support an invasion until this fall or the end of the year because of troop commitments elsewhere and back orders of weaponry.
But the two officials said that top aides to Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld would like to start the military campaign earlier, despite concerns within the State Department that an invasion would backfire by alienating the Arab world.
''Their druthers are not to have it a long ways off,'' one of the two sources, a Defense Department official, said yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity. ''But there are obviously complications, such as the fighting between the Israelis and Palestinians, and State is trying to convince them to hold off.''
The proposal, which advances the administration discussions on Iraq over two months, is expected to be presented to President Bush in the next few weeks.
The debate between the Defense and State Departments on the wisdom of trying to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has caused deep rifts between the departments in recent months. A broad array of Middle East issues has divided them, but Iraq has emerged by far as the single most divisive topic among the policy makers, the two officials said.
''The people over at the Pentagon strongly believe not only that we should do it, but that we will,'' said the other top administration source, a State Department official. ''In their minds, it's a matter of putting something in front of the president and not having him decide whether we will do it, but when.''
Return To Top April 29, 2002
Iran Does Not Parade Shahab-3
Reader Gerry Hol forwards an article from the Middle East Newsline
NICOSIA [MENL] -- Iran has displayed a range of
aircraft and missiles in a show of force meant to
deter any attack by the United States.
But the Iranian military did not exhibit it's new
Shihab-3 intermeadiate range missile. No explanation
was given.
The Islamic republic exhibited it's new rockets as
well as F-4 and MiG jets during Army Day, which was
held on Thursday. Officals said the display was meant
to stress Iran's military dominance over it's Gulf
neighbours.
"Today our army is one of the most powerful in the
world despite it's poor facilities", Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami said. "It has become self-sufficent."
The Zelzal-2 has a range of 200km. The Nazelat has a
range of 90km.
Return To Top April 29, 2002
April 28, 2002
Pentagon Thrashing Our Final War Plans
U.S. May Be Reviving Iraq Issue as Smoke Screen
The Mysteries of Saudi Troop Deployments
India clears new artillery division April 27
Letter from Johann Price on our editorial comments of April 26th on the IRA as terrorists April 27
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim April 26
The IRA is part of a Global terrorist network April 26
The 19-km Fence: A Commentary by the Editor April 25
Pentagon Thrashing Our Final War Plans
From our colleagues at AFI Research, an article by Michael Crawford.
General Tommy Franks is said to be planning to do a "Desert Storm II" and, according to a story published by the Washington Times, laying out plans for the Invasion of Iraq. Competitor StratFor, cites the article as a planned leak and then makes a point to contribute the leak to a desire by the administration to allow U.S. President Bush to delay an attack on Iraq while the Mideast problems in Israel continue to dominate the World's attention. MILNET has a much different take on the Washington Times Article.
Citing continued refusal of Iraq to allow weapons inspections, the Pentagon has been building up their set of scenarios for an operation to directly attack Iraq. Since November of 2001, the U.S. government has laid out its reasoning -- ostensibly the dangers of Saddam's increasing stockpiles and dangerous development programs for nuclear and/or dirty bombs. Also in November, the U.S. government released information on the various options -- using U.S. troops only in a unilateral all out attack on Iraq, using indigenous dissidents such as Kurds and other elements in Iraq, and a modified coalition similar to that in Desert Storm.
The Washington Times report cites Franks as having briefed the direct attack scenario. While some details have emerged, it is clear that this is one of several scenarios and our sources indicate that Assistant Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz favors a campaign that relies on air power to place pressure on Saddam to "move out of the box". The idea of flushing Saddam stems from the fact that just about everyone in the Pentagon believes Saddam will never give up, and his removal will require physical capture.
The fact that Hussein has an excellent set of war bunkers deep underground complicates any contemplated attack on Iraq, because the end game almost always has to finish with U.S. troops going in to assault that bunker. Few believe Saddam will do as Hitler did, taking his own life in the last days of the attack on Berlin.
And of course, the sons of Saddam, Qadi in particular, make it even more difficult to end the hold the Baath party has on Iraq. The party would simply anoint one of the sons as the new leader.
Thus the final war plans must include rooting out the Baath party, Saddam's sons, and then Saddam himself. This is a pretty tall order for any planner looking at attacking Iraq. Thus the briefing given by Franks is supposed to have indicated the use of some 500,000 troops.
Air War Plans
Back in November, it was clear that the use of air power would be considered the penultimate softening tool. With the success of air power strikes in Afghanistan, with special forces operators "phoning" in the attacks using GPS generated co-ordinates, it is now even more desirable to use pinpoint targeting from precision equipped aircraft.
Other Pentagon planners have continued to cite, since November, the need to use Air Power to reduce on the ground casualties -- not in the outer areas of Iraq, but as the U.S. closes in on the government and at last on Saddam's bunkers.
It is clear that attacks from the air will allow U.S. forces to eliminate resistance where targets are relatively independent from the populace. Precision guided weapons not withstanding, attacks on the infrastructure in Baghdad are a totally different matter. With Saddam's tendency to use his own people cruelly, placing hordes of civilians at key military facilities as a means to dissuade attacks for fear of killing the innocent.
However, JDAM's, GPS, and newly equipped avionics and fire control systems on key U.S. aircraft have upgraded the U.S. delivery ability significantly since Desert Storm, allowing attacks with, theoretically, less collateral damage. And new bunker buster bombs have moved out of test and development into production. Indeed some say production quantities of JDAMs and the bunker busters are one of the reasons for delays -- many were used in the attack on Afghanistan and for cave hunting. [We were among the first to say just this. Editor]
Recent Iraqi modifications to their air defense infrastructure, including placement of geographically separate radar transmitters and receivers, may be an attempt to overcome the properties of stealth that makes is so easy for U.S. stealth fighter and bombers to sneak in and take out high strategic value targets early in an air campaign.
Other sources, however, scoff at that plan. U.S. tomahawk missiles would be targeted at such radar sites that are already plotted on the map of the country-- transmitters are made easy targets when "lit up" for testing and/or for surveilling their target areas. Any sites that have been clandestinely built and which have not been detected before the battle, will most likely be targeted by "Wild Weasel" aircraft which go in early to invoke radar lock-ons in order to locate SAM controlling radar sites. The Wild Weasel can then fire an "anti-radiation" weapon -- such as the Shrike Missile -- which not only home in on the radar, but remember where it was even if the controllers shut it down to avoid attack.
Ground Attacks with Indigenous Forces
The Washington Times article cites other Pentagon sources as desiring the use of more ground troops and would include indigenous forces, similar to the U.S. "enrolment" of Northern Alliance soldiers as the spearhead of the Afghanistan campaign.
Unfortunately, our sources point out that while many anti-Saddam leaders in exile extol their desire to go in and take out Saddam, it is not clear there are enough in number or well organized enough to threaten Saddam's army. Even with Air Power peppering tanks by using A-10s and air to ground missiles and precision guided bombs from other U.S. ground attack aircraft, the anti-Saddam forces would need a mobile, effective Army. Even the at times rag tag Northern Alliance in Afghanistan looked better than what the anti-Saddam force could cobble together in Iraq today. [In fact the Northern Alliance had very seasoned combat leaders and experienced troops. It lacked money to buy equipment, supplies, and food. Editor]
But even assuming indigenous forces, the end game is the important matter. It is highly doubtful that the incredibly high stakes matter of the capture of members of the Baath party as well Saddam and his sons would be left to anyone else but U.S. forces. In fact, sources tell us that there is a plan to put together a special capture team for each of key individuals, acting almost like protection teams once the target is found and taken into custody. This would also imply that the U.S. might have plans for pursuing World Court trials for events during the Gulf War.
Special Ops Scenarios
And clearly, the Washington Times report points out that, like our own sources, Pentagon officials are still drafting up various war plan scenarios. It is likely that Franks, being the most familiar with the direct ground campaign, would opt to draft this himself, perhaps invoking the memory of Stormin' Norman and his enthusiasm for the end run that so successfully cut off the head of the beast in record time.
But Franks allowed special forces operators to have their way in Afghanistan, differing from Schwartzkopf's reluctant use of special ops. This might indicate that Franks is thinking along the lines of using large ground assault forces to hold battle outside of Baghdad, and then use special ops to infiltrate and surgically remove or capture key individuals in the military campaign.
And contrary to Stratfor's analysis, MILNET believes the Washington Times story is just another indicator of the seriousness of the U.S. planning for war in Iraq. In fact, it looks more like information released prior to George Bush Sr.'s release of U.S. troops into Iraq in Desert Storm. By allowing a small peek "inside the Kimono", the Pentagon ensures Iraq understands that planning is nearing the end point, and only action remains.
Basing and the Saudi Question
The Washington Times report also cites concerns in the Pentagon over the use of Saudi bases for strikes into Iraq. With recent Saudi related events indicating a memorable lack of support for the U.S., permission to launch attacks from Saudi bases might be denied by the Saud family. But the Times report indicates there are a number of bases now available besides those in Saudi Arabia. Indeed, MILNET has already commented on the effort to build and establish bases elsewhere, severing or at least lessening the U.S. dependence on Saudi Arabia for attacks.
The Washington Times article mentions a few of the bases that could be used against Iraq, "Turkey, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman", but fails to mention recent U.S. negotiations with countries to the North, such as bases in Armenia, Georgia, and even the southern-most tip of Russia which are also within the same distance as Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Also important to remember is that U.S. carriers lying off the coast of Israel in the Mediterranean Sea are equally within striking distance when refuelled in the skies over Jordan, a possibility that increasingly neutral Jordan might allow. Flights from the Persian Gulf also provide a second carrier group to operate in an Iraqi campaign. In fact, the fact U.S. carriers have scaled down outside Afghanistan provide fuel for this an Iraqi attack -- ships heading for home can re-arm, provide crew down time and then redeploy quietly into the Iraqi region.
Another factor the Times article discussed and keyed in on my Stratfor is the deployment of number like 500,000 U.S. troops. Stratfor's comments indicate it would many weeks to move that many forces into place. Unfortunately, those are numbers using resources used during Desert Storm's timeframe. While total troop strength in the Afghan region is estimated much lower than 500,000 men and women, the figure is also classified.
It is quite possible that the Pentagon has been carefully playing the shell game with U.S. troops as they move CENTCOM headquarters and staging facilities around. Anyone casually visiting U.S. Naval facilities in Europe, U.S. and Asia, will notice a surprisingly lack of roll-on/roll-off ships as well many of the heavy troop, munitions, and equipment carriers. Not all these ships are sitting in the Arabian Sea off Afghanistan. MILNET can easily guess where some of these ships may be stationed. The forces needed may only be a few days away. In fact, by placing small groups of protected forces in various ports in the region, no single grouping would attract attention. However on orders to congregate and prepare for battle against Iraq, it might only be days before the necessary troops are in region. MILNET believes that the U.S. has taken advantage of the Afghanistan war and subsequent troop movements associated with that campaign. Much of what is needed could already be within days of being ready for an attack.
When to Go
In the end, our competitor, Stratfor has missed the point entirely by applying shadowy and arcane politics to the release of information the Washington Times article represents to them. Our analysis concludes that the Pentagon is wrapping up the different scenarios, preparing for the final debate before Franks presents his plans to the DoD and the President. And as Washington Times reports and Stratfor does not, Cheney's trip was probably more successful then reported. For it is quite possible Cheney wasn't going to ask for help, but to indicate to governments in the region which bases we would be using. MILNET's theory is that Cheney found resistance in the Saudis, and recent events has forced the President to clearly spell out his plans and arguments to the Prince this week, in an effort to reverse that resistance.
For weeks, MILNET has been warning that the time draws near. Each successive event brings us closer, with the exception of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, nothing bodes well for Iraq's escape from U.S. intents to end Saddam's regime. In fact, while causing a short delay, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has made it clear that the U.S. will most likely have to take unilateral action. With another round of weapons inspections discussions with the U.N. coming in May, Iraq may hope to delay action 'till this summer. However, MILNET believes the U.S. is posing for a response to failed inspection negotiations to the be final trigger.
U.S. air campaign could easily kick off the Iraqi invasion, with several weeks of pounding on Iraqi positions, while U.S. troops move in from their already pre-deployed areas -- some arriving in days, some arriving in only a few weeks. MILNET estimates a full fighting force could be in region, ready to make the ground assault, within two weeks max. Reinforcements could begin to arrive from the U.S. in well timed and almost a leisurely pace.
Any indigenous forces, for what they are worth, could add only a little impact to the overall campaign, however, might be more important on the days after Saddam, the Baath party members, and Saddam's sons are no longer in the picture.
In MILNET's view, the most difficult political problem is the formation of government after Baath and Saddam's followers are ousted.
Return To Top April 28, 2002
U.S. May Be Reviving Iraq Issue as Smoke Screen
From our colleagues at Stratfor.
Defense sources cited by the Washington Times April 26 said that the Bush administration is moving closer to deciding on a general military campaign to topple Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. The sources reportedly received a briefing from Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, indicating that a war against Iraq would likely take five divisions and 200,000 troops.
The report comes at a point when the Bush administration is knee-deep in events in the Middle East, with little to show for its efforts. In a business where the perception of ineffectiveness can easily become the real thing, the Bush team may be reviving the topic of Iraq in order to turn public focus away from examining the administration's wider strategy -- or lack thereof.
Besides the conflict in Afghanistan and the worldwide hunt for members of al Qaeda, the White House is currently juggling three or four potential crises in the Middle East. Israel and the occupied territories are extremely volatile. U.S. President George W. Bush just met with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah in an attempt to salvage Washington's relationship with Riyadh. Meanwhile, Iran, Syria and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group continue to be dangerous questions marks.
After a successful campaign in Afghanistan, the next phase of the administration's foreign policy strategy is not clear. Damage control in the Middle East is necessary and labor intensive, as is tracking down al Qaeda cells. But both are tactical operations.
The White House has apparently backed away from it "axis of evil" comments, but no larger strategy seems to have taken its place. This runs counter to the expectations of the American public, media and foreign policy establishment, and the administration finds itself under growing pressure to show that it is doing something.
Iraq has been brought back into the spotlight, starting with Bush's speech April 17 at the Virginia Military Institute and continuing with this latest leak. Military officials have even begun to offer more information to the press on U.S. combat equipment being moved into Persian Gulf nations.
But there are strong arguments that deposing the Hussein regime should not be -- and may not be -- at the top of the U.S. foreign policy agenda. The Iraqi regime's links with al Qaeda are tenuous at best, and the politics of the region are extremely sensitive. Washington may find it would rather spend its political chips on issues besides Iraq.
Even if the Bush team decided to go after Hussein, such an operation wouldn't happen for months. Simple logistics dictate at least four to six weeks of buildup before even the most daring, bare-bones operations could begin. A substantial campaign similar to what Franks spoke of would require an absolute minimum of three months to prepare.
By reviving the Iraqi debate, and setting it up as a question of "how" the United States should attack rather than "if," the White House can refocus the public foreign policy discourse away from questions of whether Washington has a strategy and toward an operational debate of the best ways to invade Iraq. And because of well-known logistic limitations, there is no expectation of immediate action against Iraq. Thus the White House can buy itself weeks or months of time to bring itself together and focus on the real issues.
Return To Top April 28, 2002
The Mysteries of Saudi Troop Deployments
From our colleagues at Stratfor.
The official Saudi Press Agency confirmed April 23 that Saudi troops were deployed over the past two weeks to the northwestern region of Tabuk. The deployment included 8,000 troops, or a total of eight brigades, equipped with missile launchers and driving armored personnel carriers, Agence France-Presse reported.
Several explanations for the deployment are possible. An unnamed Gulf military official quoted by AFP said the maneuver came in response to an Israeli military buildup near the Jordanian border. The Saudi Press Agency denied this claim, asserting that the deployment was routine. Another, more likely possibility is that the movement was triggered by a wave of political unrest that swept through Saudi Arabia in early April. Although the reason for the deployment remains in question, it does illustrate the growing import of even the smallest events in the kingdom.
Despite an appearance of calm, a well of dissatisfaction with the royal family bubbles just below the surface of Saudi society. How deep this dissatisfaction runs and how widespread it is remain unclear, but what is certain is that the government in Riyadh recognizes the danger and is responding with several unusual maneuvers to quell dissent. But using the armed forces to launch a security crackdown of some sort, even if in response to increased dissent, would abrogate the House of Saud's social contract with the nations' many tribes and invite political and social chaos. The recent deployment doesn't necessarily indicate a forthcoming crackdown, but it does raise concerns about stability in the region.
[Eight brigades do not equal 8,000 troops, perhaps the latter figure is a typographical error, perhaps the eight brigades was exaggerated by DebkaFile, perhaps the intent is to say elements of 8 brigades. Editor]
Return To Top April 28, 2002
April 27, 2002
Military manoeuvres in the dark
India clears new artillery division
Letter from Johann Price on our editorial comments of April 26th on the IRA as terrorists
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim April 26
The IRA is part of a Global terrorist network April 26
The 19-km Fence: A Commentary by the Editor April 25
Our analysts pick up first indications US is getting a plan together for Iraq April 24
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
Military manoeuvres in the dark
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research, written by theier Middle East Team: Richard M. Bennett Marcus Cohen, 'Jonathan Ben-Tal', Maj Kamal Tahir & Col Massimo Menghini.
There are now a large number of reports emanating from Middle East sources which if true would suggest that major military re-deployments are under way and perhaps even preparations for a wider conflict. On closer examination some reports only appear to provide evidence of a prudent attempt to prepare for the unexpected, while others remain only the product of the Middle East's famous rumour mill. Strangely only Israel would seem to benefit from this surfeit of alarmist reporting as any suggestion of a build-up of Arab military power would only serve as an excuse for Israel maintaining an ultra-tough line on any negotiations with the Palestinians and further encourage support from the United States.
What is fairly certain is that a number of Israel's neighbours are getting distinctly jittery and have repositioned certain units to pre-empt either internal rebellion, violent anti-US civil disturbances or to limit the damage done by an unexpected attack from, say perhaps Israel or the United States. Jordan was already known to have repositioned two of its main mechanized units, the 4th and 12th Divisions along the routes towards the Syrian and Iraqi borders while the 3rd Division has fallen back towards the Saudi border.
Saudi Arabia is purported to have moved 8 of its 9 Brigades hard up against the Southern Jordanian border close to the port of Aqaba and a scant 10 miles or so from the Israeli town of Eilat, leaving if correct, a single Brigade, the 10th Mechanized Infantry Brigade on the Yemen border and nothing of military value defending the capital of Riyadh, the oil fields and the borders with Kuwait and Iraq. The 14th Armoured Brigade, 8th Mechanized Infantry Brigade and 20th Mechanized Infantry Brigade are based at the massive Northern Command headquarters at Hafr al-Batin (King Khalid Military City), while 12th Armoured Brigade and 6th Mechanized Infantry Brigade were already deployed at the Northwestern Command headquarters at Tabuk (King Abd Al-Aziz Military City).
Despite reports to the contrary it seems unlikely that Saudi Arabia would either have the wish or the capability to re-deploy the 4th Armoured Brigade and 11th Mechanized Infantry Brigade from the Southern Command headquarters at Khamis Mushayt (King Faisal Military City) some 700 miles north to the Jordanian border. It is far more likely that the Saudi High Command has moved no more than 8 of the Battalions based at Tabuk closer to the border and this would indeed be in line with the figure of 8,000 troops involved so far.
Iraq limits its military moves - for now
Iraq started massing troops in its Western region some weeks ago when it began the movement of a number of its elite Republican Guard Divisions supported by two Infantry Divisions to positions near the Jordanian frontier. Their axis of deployment is based on the support bases stretching west from the important Al Baghdadi air defence complex west of the town of Rutbah. To further reinforce their positions the Iraqi High Command deployed additional surface-to-air missile batteries in the southern no-fly zone and in the Western desert area.
While in Syria the 1st Corps defending Damascus and the approaches to the Golan heights and the 2nd Corps at Zabadan covering Western Syria and the Lebanon are both on a higher state of readiness with the 10th Mechanized Division being pulled back to heavily defended positions along the Beirut-Damascus highway and in the central and northern Beka'a valley and the elite 14th Special Forces Division moving both men and heavy equipment into dispersed positions.
The Lebanon has moved an additional Infantry Brigade to the south of Beirut, while in an event that has raised more mirth than serious military concern, the Egyptian Prime Minister Atef Ebeid said his country is ready for a full military and diplomatic confrontation with Israel, but only if other Arab countries are willing to pay Egypt for its trouble. "Let the Arab world give $100 billion from Arab funds deposited around the world. Let it say to Egypt: "This is a budget for confrontation. This budget is at your disposal. Undertake confrontation " he added. Of more interest were reports that the Egyptian High Command has dusted off plans to move elements of both the 2nd and 3rd Armies deep into the Sinai with upwards of a Division being placed on the border with the Gaza Strip.
There is little in the military movements so far seen or suspected to raise the spectre of an Arab attack on either Israel or United States interests in the region, more a case of bad nerves and a wish to survive the chaotic uncertainty that now faces the Middle East.
Return To Top April 27, 2002
India clears new artillery division
Forwarded by our editor Amitav Dutta:
The Union Government has cleared the
raising of a second artillery division
in the Indian Army, top officials disclosed.
The decision was revealed at the
meeting of army commanders on 17
April 2002.
The proposed new artillery division
will be attached to the Southern
Command and be headquartered
likely in Pune.
The new division will have two
brigades of artillery guns and a
composite brigade of rockets and
tactical missiles.
Officials disclosed that the new
artillery division could be expanded
to include more components.
Official posts and manpower for the
new division have not been cleared
but the Indian Army has initiated
work on it.
Analysts said that the new artillery
division would bolster the defence of
Rajasthan and Gujarat.
[Aside from the intrinsic interest us orbat types would have in the news, it represents an unprecedented openness for the Indian Army. It has said it will raise a new division - something it has not said for almost 40 years after the post-1962 expansion was announced; it has identified its components - something that has never happened; and it has even identified its peacetime cantonment and war station - this has absolutely never happened before. Your editor finds intriguing two things:
1. A second artillery division had been slated, but after the Kargil war in 1999 the Indian Army decided to forgo it, ruling in favor of quality over quantity. So now it has reversed itself again, and aside from wondering why, we may also wonder if the Army will now raise some of the six divisions it has deferred for 17 years.
2. Why is this division to go to XII Corps (Jodhpur) and not the I Strike Corps? The other artillery division is with the II Strike Corps. Part of the reason may lie with Pakistan's strengthening its desert corps with a new armored division. It may also presage the upgradation of XII Corps to the also long deferred fourth strike corps.]
Return To Top April 27, 2002
Letter from Johann Price on our editorial comments of April 26th on the IRA as terrorists
The Americans and the Brits had something of a gentleman's agreement. American authorities will do everything in their power to interdict and prevent arms shipments from or organised in the US. There was a regular string of FBI and ATF sting operations to disrupt these activities even though the State Dept did not list the IRA as a terrorist organisation. The Americans however would not interfere with the flow of money to NORAID and from NORAID to Sinn Fein and the IRA which it is estimated accounted for at the very least 10% of their income. The rejectionist 'Real IRA' is however listed as a terrorist organisation by the Americans and they are willing to block the flow of funds and weapons from within the US. But as with the PLO, the US and affected governments were willing to overlook habits of terrorism (the acquisition of arms and continuing contacts with other terrorist networks) so long as they werent being used and real progress was being made at the negotiating table.
Return To Top April 27, 2002
April 26, 2002
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim
The IRA is part of a Global terrorist network
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier - Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements April 25
The 19-km Fence: A Commentary by the Editor April 25
US advisers allowed to accompany Pak troops: NYT
Our analysts pick up first indications US is getting a plan together for Iraq April 24
DebkaFile On What Happens Next To Chairman Arafat April 23
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
A Letter to the Editor from a Pro-American, Non-Religious Muslim
We have not edited this letter. If this person, a pro-American, non-religious Muslim feels this way, we may imagine what the Man on the Street feels. Your editor, in his American persona, is not a bleeding heart liberal. We’re carrying this letter not because of some misguided sentiment that gosh, if people feel this way about Americans, we Americans have been bad and we must rush and reassure the Muslims in word and deed that we respect their feelings etc etc, and if we don’t do this the Muslim world will explode etc etc.
The truth of the matter is, the west is engaged in a civilization war, this really is about Islam versus Christianity, modernism versus obscurantism, the rights of all versus the rights of some, freedom versus political and religious totalitarianism, and so on and so forth. Americans should not be apologizing for standing up for their values.
That said, we have an obligation to be as well informed as possible on what the adversary thinks, and if our civilization is superior to that of Islam, we have an obligation not to demonize the adversary as some kind of mad, irrational, rabid dogs to be shot down on sight. One of the core values of Hinduism is that you must use all means necessary to protect your people, and if it means killing someone, you must kill them. If it means wiping them off the face of the earth because there is no alternative, you must wipe them off the face of the earth. But you must never do this out of hate, you must do this because it your duty.
The other side is every bit as human as our side. We don’t have to go as far as the Hindus and Buddhists to say we should have no emotion at all, we should only do our duty. Christianity’s claim to being a great religion is that it is based on compassion and forgiveness. So even as we recognize Islam is Christianity’s enemy, we must show the other side compassion and forgive them. Your editor requests you read this letter within the context of Christianity. Of course, some readers may ask, if we are to be truly compassionate and forgiving, isn’t there a better way than compassionately forgiving our enemies as we metaphorically punch open our B-52’s bomb bay doors, and blow them to shreds. Well, if someone has a better way to handle the situation, please write to us, and we’ll publish your letter - because its your right to speak, and our duty to listen.
what Radu is saying has been brought out again and again by many
writers, i read in the precis on Revolution of the Armed Forces War
Course at National Defence College 1974 that most Revolutionaries came
from higher classes......so far so good...as a matter of fact many of
the reactionary White Army Generals in Russian Civil War like Denikin
from humble classes....even kornilov.....
the present terrorism or fight against bigger forces may not be a
creation of poverty but it is a reaction against weakness of one country
which is exploited by stronger countries....after all you would not have
been kicked out of vietnam without guerrrilla war....i salute Ho Chi
Minh .....and who trained him ....CIA ! Osama Bin Laaden ! CIA's man in
Afghanistan back in 1987 ......aint u americans really naieve !
naivette thy name is USA !
but what can a militarily weaker country do ! the japs could not attack
USA in six years despite having a fine navy....compare that with 11
September....what else can the poor ( at country or group level)
do....they may be rich as individuals but the group they belong to is
not rich......terrorism as u call it is the weapon of weak against
strong
i give hundred marks to Shining Path and all those brilliant chaps !
u americans wipe out Red Indians and now are big champions of human
rights......its all relative.
while in USA i used to read FRUS and many times i came across the phrase
that Islam must be used against USSR in Asia ......that was
naieve.....who armed the afghans.....a backwater ....a non entity USA !
who pampered the rogue intelligence agencies now regarded as a threat
...the CIA !
as a matter of fact there is no political system in Islam and thats why
no democracy in Islamic world or even areas ruled by Muslims...look at
Balkans , Russia even Spain who got a half cocked democracy in 1970s
the situation will worsen...all u are doing is that u r creating more
shahs of iran and sadaats and somozas in asia and africa
i am not religious but i feel that your policy is
counterproductive.....but i admire smaller forces who inflict serious
damage on larger forces .....LONG LIVE WAR OF SHADOWS !
you say this animal is bad ....it bites if we hunt it !
ITS THE SPIRIT OF MAN THAT MATTERS....INCREASE YOUR BIRTH RATE FOR THE
NEXT BATTLE....BUT HOW , YOUR WOMEN SAY THAT CHILD BIRTH IS BAD FOR
THEIR FIGURES !
Return To Top April 26, 2002
The IRA is part of a Global terrorist network
In his Brown Man persona, your editor feels considerably aggrieved that when brown people are raising money in America for their cause, their assets are frozen and they are arrested, but when white people are raising money in America for their cause, they are left alone. Now, even your editor knows that the United State Government’s attitude toward the IRA have changed in recent years, due not a little to the concessions extracted by the British for their unstinted support for America’s wars. Still, a terrorist is a terrorist be s/he brown or white. Your editor has no problem agreeing that Hamas and Chairman Arafat are terrorists. But so is Prime Minister Sharon, and so is Gerry Adams. For all its enormous power, America could not rule its World Empire if its subjects were not convinced that basically America stands for justice and decency. America’s real power, the real reason it won the war against the Axis and the Cold War, is a moral power. America is known for acting justly more times than it acts unjustly. After September 11, 2001, however, Americans have cast the debate on right and wrong is exceedingly stark terms. So we brown people, yellow people, black people, and yes, even the white people of the United Kingdom, have the right to ask Americans to put their money where their mouth is. Your editor quite understands how complicated it all is in real life, which consists of votes at election time. But no one said running a world empire was easy.
Now after that little sermon, on to our colleague Richard M. Bennett of AFI Research.
According to a new report by the US Congress the IRA is now forming an important part of a global terror network based in Colombia where it helps train guerrilla groups in bombing making techniques. The report admits that the lives of US citizens are being put at risk by provisional IRA activity in Colombia and added that both Colombian democracy and US national security is threatened.
This report will form the basis of a House of Representatives' International Relations Committee hearing into the presence of IRA terrorists in Colombia. The report for the first time publicly confirms not only the AFI Briefing on 2/5/01 but subsequent Briefings which highlighted both the Provisional and Real IRA's involvement with international terrorism. It adds that according to the Colombian authorities in Bogota, the IRA has not only operated on behalf of the FARC, but evidence strongly suggests the Irish terrorist organization has also worked closely with Iranian-sponsored terrorists, the Cubans and the Basque separatist movement ETA.
It the light of the damning evidence made available in both the USA and Colombia it is hardly surprising that Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams declined to appear before the committee at this time. Though political and security service apologists for the IRA in Britain have played down both the revelations of the true nature of the IRA's international terrorist credentials and the recent discovery of potential IRA 'hit-lists' of senior British Conservative Party politicians, AFI understands from sources both in the Republic of Ireland and Brussels that the IRA almost certainly have similar lists on the leadership of both the Labour and Liberal Democratic parties and indeed on senior business figures, the Royal Family and celebrities in the entertainment and sporting worlds, again confirming earlier AFI predictions that assassination may well play a major role in future terrorist planning.
Colombia a breeding ground for terrorist equalled only by Afghanistan
Gerry Adams is being increasingly exposed as a political leader of highly dubious standards for when he was asked to explain to the US committee why his representative in Cuba was among the three men arrested, the West Belfast MP claimed his testimony could prejudice the trial of the three Irish suspects. In fact after the arrest of Jim Monaghan, Martin McCauley and Niall Connolly in Colombia, Sinn Fein had initially denied that Mr Connolly was its political representative in Cuba. When it became apparent that this was untrue, the Mr Adams spokesman merely said Sinn Fein had made 'a mistake'. The fact that this brought little positive response from the British Government only suggests how many political reputations are now resting on the successful outcome of the Northern Ireland peace process.
The Provisional IRA, effectively the military wing of Sinn Fein also urgently needs to explain the obvious shift away from its traditional stance of non-involvement in the drugs trade. Though many in the intelligence services have long suspected the IRA of duplicity on the subject, their open involvement with the Colombian rebels can leave very little doubt that they are upto their necks in drug-related crime. In a strongly-worded statement Henry Hyde, the chairman of the International Relations Committee, said that he had given "an opportunity for Mr Adams to offer some explanation about why two IRA explosives experts and a Sinn Fein political officer stationed in Cuba were arrested last August following a visit to a safe haven controlled by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, a designated terrorist organisation."
Congressman Hyde added: "FARC and other narco terrorist groups in Colombia are responsible for 90% of the cocaine and 70% of the heroin sold on America's streets. "Terrorism imperils Colombian democracy, and the alleged IRA role in helping groups like the FARC to perpetuate this violence poses a direct threat to US national interests." Mr Hyde concluded by bluntly stating that "Colombia is a potential breeding ground for international terror equalled perhaps only by Afghanistan, and the IRA findings are the strongest among these global links because of the arrests of the three Irish nationals and the accompanying evidence"
IRA turns arms decommissioning into a farce
The farce of IRA arms decommissioning only makes the position taken by politicians of all the major parties in Westminster even more untenably and dangerous. Both wings of the IRA are deeply involved in the world-wide illegal arms trade and have very effectively improved the quality of their arsenals. The great majority of the weapons previously held by the Provisionals were of no realistic military value and were expendable, particularly in return for the political kudos gained by their destruction. The Russian Surface-to-Air Missiles, Anti-Tank Rocket Launchers, modern Machine Guns, Automatic Rifles, Snipers Rifles and a wide range of newly acquired and advanced bomb making material remains safely under IRA control in dumps dotted around Ireland, the British mainland (particularly Scotland) and continental Europe.
Indeed 80% of the terrorist's armoury was old, damaged or without sufficient supplies of ammunition to remain as viable weapons. Even its large store of Semtex explosives, which have roughly a shelf-life of thirty years, were manufactured over 25 years ago and were fast approaching their 'sell by date'. New high explosives and detonators have now been acquired by both wings of the IRA from Spain and the Balkans and the presence of IRA 'engineers' in Colombia highlighted not only the Irish terrorists willingness to export their knowledge in return for very large sums of drug-related cash, but also the need to have a safe haven to practice with the new explosive devices developed by their bomb-making experts, well away from MI5 and the British Army surveillance.
The IRA have established links through their old allies ETA with a network of Islamic terrorist groups in Europe and the Middle East and despite the best endeavours of British Security a resumption of terrorist activity by the IRA cannot be ruled out. The fact that this time it may be co-ordinated with International terrorist groups including Al Qa'ida makes the threat that much worse and the rather naive British belief that the 'Irish Leopard can change its spots' even more disquieting.
Return To Top April 26, 2002
April 25, 2002
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier - Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements
The 19-km Fence: A Commentary by the Editor
US advisers allowed to accompany Pak troops: NYT
Our analysts pick up first indications US is getting a plan together for Iraq April 24
DebkaFile On What Happens Next To Chairman Arafat April 23
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
Kidnapped Nation April 19
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier - Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements
From DebkaFile
Saudi Arabia denies it has massed 8 brigades on its Jordanian border following secret intelligence reports of Israeli troop concentrations on its frontier with Jordan. (The Kingdom of Jordan is wedged between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and Syria.) Israel denied the Saudi claim Tuesday, April 23. The comeback was fast: "A responsible source" at the kingdom's defense and aviation ministry stated that Saudi armed forces units are merely conducting "routine exercises" in the northwestern region, not beefing up their troop presence there.
The next step in this unfolding exchange of claims and denials was another report from Riyadh on Thursday, April 24, that Israeli jets were flying over Jordan's border with the oil kingdom. Saudi air defenses were said to be under orders to shoot down any intruding craft.
DEBKAfile's military analysts have taken due note of Riyadh's public admission that it fears an Israeli invasion of Jordan. Even more noteworthy is its timing: 48 hours before Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz travels to President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas.
Here, then, is a transparent Saudi gambit, based on the cynical exploitation of the Israeli military bugbear. This gambit, in the view of our analysts, is employed by Riyadh for three purposes:
First, to manufacture tension on the Saudi-Jordanian-Israel borders in order to back up Abdullah's attempt to railroad Israel as the generator of military escalation in the region.
Second, as a device to cut short the Saudi crown prince's American visit. Riyadh-Washington relations have never been so bad. (Read earlier DEBKA report on this page: Bush-Abdullah talks: To Paper over Cracks?) Since the Saudi ruler could not wriggle out his American trip, he needed a pretext for an early departure for home.
Third, Saudi rulers have been forewarned of impending Iraqi troop movements focusing on Jordan and are taking military precautions to keep the coming military exchanges from spilling over into home territory.
Riyadh, while attempting to fabricate a crisis around Jordan's borders - and pin it on Israel - knows exactly what is really going on. The Israeli troop presence along the border of the Hashemite kingdom - which Israeli spokesmen consistently deny - is there with Amman's consent for the sole purpose of deterring Saddam from invading Jordan. The Saudis are also perfectly aware that Iraq led the way in kicking off this round of military moves and that Israel countered with a blocking tactic.
DEBKAfile 's military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop movements.
The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago consists of 3-4 of its 7 crack Republican Guard divisions, which are stationed in the center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are fanned out across a 300-sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest - 350 km. west of Baghdad - and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the town of Rutbah.
The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried out under the cover of a bombing and missile barrage, will try and capture this area and take over the four bases - much in the way a main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afghanistan. From there US forces will threaten the capital, Baghdad.
The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents. One, led by Saddam Hussein's son, Qusay, will fall back toward Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and seize its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital, Amman.
The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to - whose presence Israeli spokesmen deny - is poised to defend Jordan against this very Iraqi assault.
By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in an isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in the Jewish state, as well as American military facilities in the Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar.
Iraq is also getting set to counter alternative US tactics. This week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US and British allied planes. This move was a preventive measure against a possible US attempt to seize Iraq's northern and southern oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also large-scale helicopters squadrons flying US and British Marines in from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey.
All these plans are still on American and Iraqi drawing boards. Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli military planners are also working hard on contingency plans.
The Americans therefore have no reason to expect a short campaign. Our military experts estimate the first stage alone will last between one and two months. Saddam will certainly wield oil as a weapon. The Saudis have taken steps to reassure Washington that they have no intention of joining Baghdad in an oil embargo. On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market.
Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom.
But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.
Already the Saudis are operating on two levels - one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first.
[As nearly as we can understand, Debka is saying that Israel is prepared to come to Jordan's aid if Saddam Hussain invades Jordan. Saudi Arabia has seized on Israeli troop movements to manufacture an artificial crisis that will provide Riyadh pretexts to (a> paint Israel as a villan, (b) cancel, or at least shorten, the upcoming meeting between Saudi Arabia and the United States. We've no clue if anyone at Debka reads us. If someone does, we'd like to ask:
1. Why is Saddam Hussain planning on invading Jordan, thereby giving the US not only the pretext it needs to eliminate him, but forcing the rest of the world, including his friends, into acting against him . Remember, if he invades Jordan, the US has the UN cover it could use, plus many now against the US plan to attack will have to change sides.
2. Since presumably the US knows that Israel is conducting troop movements with Jordan's consent, to help Jordan, why will the US fall for the Saudi gambit?
3. What do the Saudis hope to gain by avoiding this meeting with the US?
4. Why does anyone need a military expert to tell them the first phase of the US attack on Iraq will last a month or two? US strategy from 1991 onward has been to pulverize the opposition from the air and then gain a walkover on the ground. This took six weeks last time the US and Iraq had it out; Iraq is much weaker; conversely, US capabilities have increased ten-fold. So even we, who are far from experts, can see the first phase will take a month or two.]
The 19-km Fence: a Commentary by the Editor
The Indian Border Security Force reports that it has completed the first phase of border fencing to counter Pakistani infiltration. This astonishing feat involves all of 19-kilometers of border. The current war for Kashmir began in 1987. Fifteen years later, the Government of India has managed to fence 19-kilometers of a 750-km border.
Occasionally someone will ask your editor why the Government of India needs between 200 and 300 thousand army and paramilitary troops to counter 3-5,000 Pakistanis fighting in Kashmir. This is the correct figure, incidentally, not the 600 to 800,000 that Pakistan likes to use. Nonetheless, its an astonishingly high number.
And its not as if the Indian Army is a novice at the CI game. One Indian division, 8th Mountain, probably has more CI experience by itself than the entire US Army after World War II.
Your editor explains that his government is one of the most incompetent in the world in such matters. In other countries, government leaders would be hanged for such incompetence. The ever-enduring Indian people, however, simply carry on.
Your editor's questioners refuse to believe anyone can be as incompetent as he says. He exaggerates, they feel. He is being rhetorical, they tell each other. They frown at his immoderation.
Well, the above is yet another example of how the Government of India functions.
Some years ago, your editor asked someone in authority why fencing, such an elementary first step in these situations, was not being undertaken. The Authority said every time we try and fence, the Pakistanis bring artillery fire down on the construction parties. (Oh those dastardly Pakistanis! Is there nothing so low they wont stoop to it?) Your nonplused editor asked why we don't simply fire back and keep firing till the other side gets the picture. That will mean war, exclaimed the authority.
Your editor said, lets get this straight. They attack us, we take a passive measure like fencing to protect ourselves. They fire on our workers. We cant fire back because that will mean war. So they're at war, but we can't defend ourselves because that would mean war. We've only 8 times their population and resources. Why then bother to go through farce of defending Kashmir and losing our men every day? Why not just hand Jammu and Kashmir over to the Pakistanis and be done with it? While we're at it, why not give them the Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat? And why stop there? Why not tell Mr. Nawaz Sharif (then Prime Minister) that he can be the next emperor of India as head of a restored Mughul Dynasty? Your editor - rather intemperately, he admits, quoted lines from the Tiny Tim song: "You're so mean, you hit me with a flower, you hit me every hour, you're so mean". Needless to say, he was not invited for lunch again.
But really, next time our readers wonder why India is unable to contain the Kashmir insurgency, let the reader say to himself or herself: "Nineteen kilometers of fencing in 15 years."
Quite beside the point, but its rather a nice fence. Well built, attractive as fences go, and quite polite. Nothing like the horrible, menacing, ugly fence the East Germans built along their entire border with West Germany. It must be working, nonetheless: the Pakistanis seem to be expending quite an effort every day trying to destroy it.
Return To Top April 25, 2002
US advisers allowed to accompany Pak troops: NYT
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan.
WASHINGTON: US advisers have been granted permission to accompany Pakistani troops into tribal areas of Pakistan to search for Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters, The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing senior Pakistani officials.
The report said the advisers were expected to be operating in a largely lawless region near the Afghan border where the remnants of al-Qaeda and Taliban forces are believed to have taken refuge. According to the Times, the agreement was struck after the seizure of documents and computer disks from a house in Faisalabad where Abu Zubayda, a senior leader of al-Qaeda, was arrested on March 27 during a joint American-Pakistani raid.
The information seized in the raid provided evidence of an effort by al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters to regroup in the mountains along the Afghan-Pakistani border, using the tribal areas as a haven to avoid attack by US forces, the daily reported, quoting unnamed Pakistani officials. The prospect of joint raids in the tribal areas suggests the possibility of a new two-pronged operation to squeeze remaining pockets of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters from both sides of the border, The Times said.
But the agreement seems to fall short of US proposals for joint American-Pakistani military operations in the tribal areas, according to the report. Pakistani leaders are worried about provoking a backlash against the presence of Americans in the region, where tribes operate largely beyond the authority of the central government
Return To Top April 25, 2002
April 24, 2002
Our analysts pick up first indications US is getting a plan together for Iraq
Time for more plain speaking: an editorial by Richard M. Bennett
DebkaFile On What Happens Next To Chairman Arafat April 23
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
Kidnapped Nation April 19
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine April 18
Our analysts pick up first indications US is getting a plan together for Iraq
Unlike our esteemed friends at DebkaFile, we at Orbat.com saw no indication that a spring campaign against Iraq was in prospect. Now Johann Price, our executive editor, and Tom Cooper, an important contributer - sometimes from behind the scenes - are picking up bits and pieces indicating a solid US plan is forming, for operations in the winter. They are looking at operational options, how Iraq is planning to meet an expected offensive, the size of the US/UK deployment, and problems and opportunities for both sides. Now, of course, we have no idea if they will share some of their conclusions with analysis.orbat.com. Since we pay absolutely nothing, we will have no cause for complaint if they don't, but lets keep our fingers crossed anyway.
Return To Top April 24, 2002
Time for more plain speaking: an editorial by Richard M. Bennett
The transparent double-standards of in particular the United States and Britain are never better highlighted than by their respective Middle Eastern policies. Based on often temporary political expediency and a confused and forever shifting group of alliances, the West has stumbled into a quagmire of duplicity, watching your supposed enemies, but watching your friends even more closely.
Israel, a state built on the very effective use of terrorism, selective assassination and nearly 55 years of often aggressive first use of military action, adopts a coy attitude to such comments. Why not be honest and be proud that they have not been afraid to get their hands dirty? Israel has killed in both war and peace many more of its Arab inhabitants or neighbours than Israelis killed by the combined Arab armed forces and a multitude of terrorist groups. Are those comments a criticism of Israel or merely an honest acceptance that Israel has always been prepared to do anything it believes necessary to survive when faced with Arab hostility?
The denial of the right of the Palestinians to use whatever methods they can to recover their territory from an occupying army sits rather unhappily alongside the Irgun and Stern Gangs use of terrorism against the British and Palestinians or the wholehearted US support for the Afghans against the Soviet Army, the French resistance's use of terror tactics and assassination against the German forces in WW2 or for that matter the Kosovan Muslim revolt in a sovereign area of Serbia.
Washington and London either openly support or at worst ignore Israel's actions against the Muslim threat and yet the double-standards soon re-appear when Christian Serbia is condemned and heavily bombed for trying to eradicate a Muslim terrorist campaign in its own territory. Albanian and Kosovan Islamic terrorists were supported and armed by both Iran and Osama Bin-Laden, along with and at times apparently at the behest of the USA and the CIA. Indeed these same terrorists now pose a considerable threat to large parts of Europe both by acting as agents for Al Qa'ida and through their open involvement in multinational crime organizations. Again the US, NATO and the European nations have only themselves to blame, for had they helped Serbia to cope with the Islamic terrorists in the first place many lives might have been saved, particularly those of the Kosovan Muslims who were to die at the hands of Serbia's genocidal dictator.
Some observers have expressed more than a little surprise that the United States should have so willingly used Islamic terrorists to kill Europeans for Washington's own particular hidden agenda. This and the long term use of terrorists like Bin-Laden against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan was to 'blowback' in a terrible fashion on 9-11. However much we may disapprove of this perversion of diplomacy, isn't it rather hypocritical to complain when it is being conducted by Governments democratically elected and of our own choosing? Probably yes, much safer to turn on the TV sports channel or hide behind the mask of patriotism. After all what we don't know about can't trouble what passes for a collective conscience.
Saddam a friend or a foe?
Saddam Hussein was supplied with the manufacturing equipment to produce Weapons of Mass Destruction by US companies with the full approval of Washington, indeed the USA helpfully provided samples of Anthrax for Iraq's germ warfare program. Iraq developed and used chemical weapons against Kurdish civilian targets and against the Iranian Army. Britain helped with technology and the super gun project which would have been capable of lobbing shells full of bacteriological warfare agents into Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey or even perhaps the heart of Israel. But then of course, Saddam Hussein was seen as a friend of the West, a bulwark against the approaching evils of Iran's fundamentalist Islamic revolution.
It would be very easy to take to the moral high ground usually reserved for the intellectual coward at this point. However, the fact remains that international diplomacy and the approach to areas of strategic importance have never been governed by anything other than self interest. They are not a playground for justice, compassion, equality, fairness or at times even common sense. Like Israel, the USA and Britain will and indeed must look after what they believe to be the best interests of their own nations at any given time. That they will get it wrong as often as getting it right comes with the territory and other political beliefs and the nations founded upon them, have proved time and time again just how fragile political judgement can be.
A divided Islam is own worst enemy
The Islamic world can have little to genuinely complain about either. The bleeding-heart Liberals who constantly complain about the foul injustice done to the Muslims apparently put little stock in the evidence of a thousand years of internal conflict, injustice, prejudice, slavery and invasion of foreign lands that have been carried out in the name of Islam. Much of Europe took nearly 600 years to rid itself of Ottoman occupation and the scars still show in the ethnic hatreds of the Balkans. The Arab peoples have had independence and the massive advantage of oil and gas-rich resources in abundance for 60 years and used wisely many of today's seemingly insuperable problems may well have been avoided.
The Arab nations also had a huge numerical advantage over Israel and could either have organized effectively for war, armed to the teeth by Soviet Russia or more sensibly negotiated from this position of strength an honourable deal for both Israel and an independent Palestinian State. Instead they have spent several generations fighting amongst themselves, in numerous failed wars with Israel and frittered away much of the Oil revenue on wasted weapons, self-indulgence or supporting international terrorism.
Politics and diplomacy, or for that matter the News Media, would be no worse for a lot more plain speaking. AFI Research has been assailed at times for being pro-Arab, pro-Israeli, anti-American, pro-American, pro-Pakistan and pro-India. Indeed our coverage of Afghanistan and the War on terrorism, though more often correct and at times exclusive has drawn accusations of being both soft on terrorism and of promoting US military action. This is a price that all our writers are prepared to pay, if nothing else it proves we have a very wide international readership and that we still maintain both our independence and the wish to speak plainly at all times and on all subjects.
Return To Top April 24, 2002
April 23, 2002
The Media Trots out the Philippines And Vietnam Comparison - Again
DebkaFile On What Happens Next To Chairman Arafat
Israel stumbles towards conflict for lack of a viable alternative April 22
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
Kidnapped Nation April 19
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine April 18
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
The Media Trots out the Philippines And Vietnam Comparison - Again
From MILNET's Michael Crawford, forwarded by our colleagues at AFI research.
Acerbic tongue and all, Chris Mathews on MSNBC's Hardball jumps down the throat of his guest, then takes a parting shot with "That's the kind of thinking that got us into Vietnam..." The subject? Training Filipino with American forces on the ground in the Philippines.
MILNET has already taken the time to make that analysis, Chris, and if you cared to read just our intro piece you'd know the similarities are only surface deep. But then the surface of the issue is all you need. We've noticed the tendency of your show to allow you time for vicious sound bites and the fast talking, knife like tongue lashing as you "probe" and then talk over the answers. Some maybe fooled by the hot box approach of hardball. Fortunately not everyone falls for it.
In any case, for the benefit of those who want more than a sarcastic sound bite, we thought it time to review the terrorist situation in the Philippines, we haven't done so in any detail since August.
Recent Activity
On April 21, 2002, a man called in to warn of Al-Qaida based bombings. Several hours later, a town known as General Santos, a total of 3 bombings occurred on Mindanao in front of a department store, a set of offices near a radio station and a bus terminal. 14 people were killed in the department store explosion as well as dozens wounded in all three locations.
The caller identified himself as a member of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group, which others have identified as having Al Qaida links. In response to the bombings, the Police force for the Mindanao region found several unexploded bombs planted under trucks.
The city is some 140 miles North of Basilan Island and 600 miles south of Manila on the northern most Philippines island of Mindanao. Basilan is where U.S. troops are assisting the Army of the Philippines as they try to root out Abu Sayyaf. Key in the operation are three hostages held for 11 months, a couple and a nurse on a missionary mission to the Philippines.
Incidentally and perhaps not too coincidentally, General Santos is where father Rohman Al-Ghozi pleaded guilty to possession of explosives and led police to a huge cache of more explosives earlier this year.
On October 17, 2001 an Italian priest was kidnapped by Muslim separatists and finally returned in April, 2002 (A.P.).
Recent news reports (multiple sources) of kidnap ransoms being offered to secure release of three hostages surfaced in April of 2002.
Also in April, a Reuters news story (printed in LA Times) claimed that there was evidence that ransoms taken in the past have been funneled to Al-Qaida.
A March, 2002 Washington Post story outlined the use of children by terrorist organizations in the Philippines and sadly, the "life of adventure" a brace of young men claim they lived while in the bush with Abu Sayyaf.
Below is an updated summary of the Terrorist threat in the Philippines.
Terrorist Summary
The following terrorist groups are active in the Philippines and provide a majority of the tension:
1. Abu Sayyaf Group ( ASG ) - The ASG is the smallest and most radical of the Islamic separatist groups operating in the southern Philippines. Some ASG members have studied or worked in the Middle East and developed ties to Mujhadeen while fighting and training in Afghanistan. The group split from the Moro National Liberation Front in 1991 under the leadership of Abdurajik Abubakar Janjalani, who was killed in a clash with Philippine police on December 18, 1998. Credo is to promote an independent Islamic state in western Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago, areas in the southern Philippines heavily populated by Muslims. Funded by Islamic extremists in Asia and the Middle East. In April of 1995, according to the U.S. State Department annual report, Patterns of Global Terrorism (2000), Abu Sayyaf Group invaded the town of Ipil on Mindanao - their first major "action".
2. Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) - Obscure but long lived group strangely missing from the U.S. list of terrorist organizations -- Recent activities include the kidnapping of tourists on a bus and held them at a complex in Zamboanga until November 28, 2001 when they exchanged the hostages for free passage to another province. The leader, Gov. Nur Misuari was later captured and held in Malaysia. Misuari has led the group for 20 years, seeking an Islamic nation in the southern region of the Philippines. A total of 55 people including 51 of the Moro rebels were killed in the initial attack on November 20, 2001. This fighting broke a truce signed by Misuari on August 8, 2001. However, MNLF was suspected of attacking and killing 3 Philippine soldiers on September 14, which was then followed by a raid on rebel homes where 4 supposed members were killed. The pact was pretty much given up on by October and it was only a matter of time before another large attack occurred. Now listed as one of the groups with ties to Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaida, it is thought they could be the target of combined U.S. and Philippines Army attacks. Funding is indigenous for the most part, and MNLF boasts they are the largest group in Philippines. Clearly they do have popular support in pocket areas in the Philippines.
3. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) - At times indistinguishable from the MNLF (see above), determined to bring an Islamic rule to the Philippines. Some reports show this to be the second largest group, however, this may be an error due to the intermix of members of the MNLF and MILF. The number of members is said to be in the thousands by MSNBC.
4. New People's Army ( NPA ) - The military wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), with older ties to the Partido Komunista ng Pilipinas (PKP) , a communist party that merged with the Socialist Party of the Philippines before the War and was centered in urban Luzon. The NPA is a Maoist group formed in December 1969 with the aim of overthrowing the government through protracted guerrilla warfare. Although primarily a rural-based guerrilla group, the NPA has an active urban infrastructure to conduct terrorism and uses city-based assassination squads called sparrow units. Derives most of its funding from contributions of supporters and so-called revolutionary taxes extorted from local businesses. The NPA primarily targets Philippine security forces, corrupt politicians, and drug traffickers. Opposes any U.S. military presence in the Philippines and attacked U.S. military interests before the U.S. base closures in 1992.
5. Alex Boncayao Brigade ( ABB ) - Consisting of a group of 500 or so operatives, the ABB, is a breakaway urban hit squad of the Communist Party of the Philippines New People's Army, was formed in the mid-1980s. In March 1997 the group announced it had formed an alliance with another armed group, the Revolutionary Proletarian Army.
Groups In Surrounding Areas - "Outside" Threats
There are also a number of groups outside the Philippines who also continue to pose a threat, either directly or through sharing of funds and materials.
6. Jemaah Islamiah, Malayasian extremist group, thought to be well linked with the Al-Qaida terrorist network. Captain Yazid Suffat, a member of the group is thought to have been a sort of emissary to Al-Qaida, travelling and recruiting throughout Southeast Asia (Newsweek). The group members met with Khalid Almidhar and Nawaf Alhamzi who piloted the plane that struck the U.S. Pentagon on September 11, 2001. Sufaat also met with Zacarias Moussaouf, currently being held on suspicion of being a terrorist on the same mission as the 9/11 terrorists. Moussaouf was given $35,000 and employment letters by Sufaa. In April of 2002, the group was suspected of targeting Malayasia's second largest port, a detailed map with notations turning up in a raid on a cell of this group on April 18, 2002.
al-Qaida- Usama Bin Laden's international offshoot of the Islamic Jihad organization, this group is active in the Philippines due to its current goal is to "re-establish the Muslim state" throughout the world. Works with allied Islamic extremist groups to overthrow regimes it deems "non-Islamic" and remove Westerners from Muslim countries. This includes supports for Moros and their efforts to form independent states, as well as funding Filipino communist rebels.
Return To Top April 23, 2002
DebkaFile On What Happens Next To Chairman Arafat
From DebkaFile.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II flew to Cairo Sunday, April 21 to confer with President Hosny Mubarak of Egypt on the current Middle East crisis and the rising ferment in their countries. The two leaders are in close coordination on the problem of Yasser Arafat and his Palestinian Authority.
On Saturday, April 20, DEBKAfile first revealed the plan under discussion in Washington, Jerusalem, Cairo and Amman to shift Arafat to Gaza and restrict his rule to the Gaza Strip under close Egyptian supervision, leaving the West Bank under local Palestinian government and shared Jordanian and Israeli guardianship.
Israeli transport minister Ephraim Sneh revealed to the London Sunday Telegraph a plan to divide the West Bank in two - half retained by Israel and half under Palestinian rule, which he described as conceived by prime minister Ariel Sharon without Labor endorsement. Sneh omitted to mention that this proposal was one of many on the White House’s drawing board, as part of a larger design for redefining Middle East borders, which secretary of state Colin Powell laid before Egyptian and Jordanian leaders during his recent tour of the region.
This still evolving master plan prompted Sharon’s vehement rebuff Sunday, April 21, of the demand coming from Labor party minister Raanan Cohen to get started on the evacuation of isolated West Bank settlements. Sharon said only half-jokingly: ”Evacuations of settlements do not figure on any agenda before October 2003 when I prepare to start my next term of office!”
Labor ministers present their pressure to begin uprooting settlements as necessary for easing the burden weighing on the reservists detailed to their security. In actual fact, it is a ruse to torpedo the US-Egyptian-Jordanian-Israeli program for rooting out Arafat, his regime and his influence from the towns of the West bank.
Sharon cited October 2003 - not only because of Israel’s election timetable, but because he calculates that by then the American campaign against Iraq and its fallout will be over and done with. Then will be time enough to talk about the borders of the West Bank - both in the light of the security and political situation in Israel and the Palestinian entity and depending on how Jordan comes out of the conflict.
With the US-Iraq showdown still ahead, most of DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources agree that Jordan is liable to suffer greater damage than any other nation in the region in consequence of the US-Iraqi war. Already, the Hashemite Kingdom is gathering itself for the coming emergency, not waiting for the American action against Baghdad to begin.
Although no state of emergency has been formally declared, DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources reveal that the capital, Amman, and Jordan’s other cities have all been placed under the control of the Jordanian armed forces and anti-aircraft positions arrayed at strategic points. Government offices, security and aid services, hospitals, water, electric and fuel utilities and economic institutions, including banks, have gone over to an emergency footing. In another sign of the times, the bulk of the kingdom’s reserves have been transferred to banks in Europe.
Our sources added that the king and his family have left Amman and established residence in the royal summer villa in Red Sea resort of Aqaba, guarded by Counter-Terrorism Battalion 71 (CTB-71), a Jordanian elite contingent made up the Rangers, paratroops and members of the Royal Guard. At the first sign of a tangible threat, all is prepared to whisk the king and his family out of harm’s way. They will be flown to a US airbase at Sharm el-Sheikh on the southern edge of Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, as the Egyptian president’s guest.
Most of the families of Jordan’s ruling elite have left the capital on the pretext of starting their summer vacation.
Return To Top April 23, 2002
April 22, 2002
Israel stumbles towards conflict for lack of a viable alternative
Is Omar Sheikh a Double Agent?
U.S. Fighter Planes Based in Kyrgyzstan Ready for Combat Missions Over Afghanistan
Taliban regroup for widescale guerilla warfare April 20
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
Kidnapped Nation April 19
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine April 18
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
Israel stumbles towards conflict for lack of a viable alternative
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett at AFI research.
Israel would have been foolish indeed if it had deliberately committed a war crime on the West Bank, on territory it knew would be returned to hostile control and where the Palestinians would welcome an investigation by the United Nations and Human rights organizations. That Israel may turn out to be guilty of a massacre of Palestinians is possible and indeed may have occurred during a violent military reaction to the booby-trap bomb that wiped out the best part of an Israeli infantry unit. This is only part of the down-side of Israel's three-week military campaign which has now ended its first phase. It has also traumatized and alienated a new generation of young Palestinians, damaged Israel's democratic reputation across much of the world and despite considerable propaganda to the contrary, achieved few of the targets initially set for the security crackdown. The infrastructure of the Islamic terrorist network is still largely intact, most weapons dumps remain undiscovered and the number of fighters will be quickly swelled by those seeking revenge.
However, had Israel used a truly significant part of its impressive arsenal of heavy weapons, or the tactics employed by Sharon during the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, or perhaps those used by King Hussein and his bloody suppression of the Palestinians during Black September, President Assads destruction of a Muslim uprising in the Syrian City of Hama in 1982 which resulted in upto 25,000 deaths, Saddam Hussein's merciless campaigns against the Kurds or indeed President Nixon's brutal use of B52's to carpet bomb huge areas of Cambodia causing in-numerable civilian casualties, then not only Jenin refugee camp, but much of the surrounding city would have been obliterated resulting in the deaths of many thousands of their inhabitants.
It is important for the critics, though largely justified in attacking Israel's blind belief in the military option, to remember that Sharon has barely moved his massive military machine into first gear yet. What is far more important in the long run is the lack of positive movement on the diplomatic front and the few options that remain for a genuine and workable political settlement. Israel is unlikely to return control of the regions vital water resources to its Arab neighbours, accept a fully independent Palestinian State, dismantle its entire network of hundreds of illegal Jewish settlements on occupied Arab land or accept the return of several million Palestinian refugees to the West Bank and Gaza, and more importantly to their former homes and land within Israel. A further major hurdle remains the non-negotiability of Jerusalem and to further highlight this, there are reports that Israeli's are being encouraged to buy yet more property in Arab East Jerusalem.
Palestinians used as bait for Bin-Ladens ambitions
It would appear that all the fundamental concessions will be demanded from the Palestinians who have already been denied their ancestral land, liberty and a sovereign state for over 50 years. Israel's military crackdown in the last few weeks has done little to encourage a more conciliatory attitude from the Palestinians and in all probability the chances of many more suicide bombings and a wider conflict have been greatly increased. The United States by its restatement of Israel's importance and its wholehearted support for its use of force has crucially highlighted the blatant similarity of their policies towards the Arab problem. Washington risks having its entire strategy towards Iraq and Iran seriously weakened and its long-term position in this vital oil-rich area fatally undermined by a potentially widespread backlash against the US regional presence and its all-pervasive influence.
Perhaps this was indeed the outcome that Al Qa'ida hoped to achieve with its devastating attacks on New York and Washington. To create an unbreakable linkage in the minds of ordinary Muslims around the world, between Israel and the United States. To portray them as having a common cause in some new Anti-Islamic crusade and to ensure that Muslim fighters and civilians would be victims of simultaneous Israeli and American military action. It would therefore be vitally important to keep the Intifada going and to provoke Israel into spreading the conflict. Both Iraq and Iran have a vested interest in preventing peace, as much as some observers suggest Israel needs continuing conflict as an excuse for avoiding having to make painful concessions. If this does indeed turn out to be the Islamic militants intention than its quite possible that Sharon and President Bush have walked right into the trap that Osama Bin-Laden set for them.
Return To Top April 22, 2002
Is Omar Sheikh a Double Agent?
From the Times of India
Omar Sheikh, facing trial for the abduction of US reporter Daniel Pearl, may have been an agent of both Pakistani intelligence and Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, a media report said on Sunday.
Quoting documents, The Sunday Times said that it had found evidence to show that Sheikh, who spent five years in an Indian jail for terrorist activities, was sheltered and supported for several years by Pakistani authorities.
"Documents also show that Sheikh was close to radical Pakistani cleric Maulana Masood Azhar - a close associate of Bin Laden," the report said.
Sheikh was first introduced to Azhar nine years ago in a training camp for Islamic guerrillas in Afghanistan. India released both of them in 1998 in exchange for passengers of a hijacked Indian Airlines plane held hostage in Kandahar.
Even though he denies the latest charges against him, he has admitted involvement in a string of kidnappings since 1994 and the attack on the Indian Parliament last December, the report said.
"Sheikh is a vital key that can open the doors to the al-Qaeda network and to the links between the Pakistani military intelligence establishment and the terror groups," the report quotes M J Gohel of the Asia Pacific Foundation, which is investigating Pearl's murder, as saying.
Sheikh's close connection with Azhar is established, the report says, but "it remains unclear whether Pearl's kidnapping was Sheikh's idea or whether he was acting for a higher terrorist authority".
[We are baffled at this report, and don't see how it shows Sheikh may been a double agent. He was working for Bin Laden, he was working for Pakistan intelligence. Since Bin Laden had much influence over the Taliban, as did Pakistani intelligence, both sides could have found Sheikh useful to keep in touch with the other. He would have been a double agent only if he was betraying Bin Laden to the ISI or vice versa. Your editor knows nothing about Bin Laden, but he knows a little about the ISI. Had Sheikh indeed been betraying the ISI to anyone, he would not have lived long enough to regret it. The ISI are no fools. Editor]
Return To Top April 22, 2002
U.S. Fighter Planes Based in Kyrgyzstan Ready for Combat Missions Over Afghanistan
An Associated Press story, from
military.com
U.S. fighter planes based in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan will be ready to fly their first mission to Afghanistan on Saturday (April 20th, 2002), the commander of U.S. forces in Kyrgyzstan said Friday.
Six F-18 Hornet jets, which arrived this week from California, have been making test flights from the Manas airport near Bishkek and are ready to take part in the anti-terror operation in Afghanistan.
200 U.S. Marines arrived at the base Friday, and that the airport would eventually accommodate up to 50 military aircraft. Six French Mirage fighters and 4 tanker aircraft are already stationed there.
About 1,500 troops from the United States, France, Denmark, Spain, Australia and South Korea are based at Manas, providing support for military and humanitarian operations in Afghanistan.
The foreign contingent has already spent dlrs 20 million in Kyrgyzstan, on fuel, airport fees, food, water, and entertainment, giving a significant boost to the economy of the Central Asian country, said Dzhumart Otorbayev, an adviser to Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev.
Return To Top April 22, 2002
April 21, 2002
Indian military to train with U.S. forces in Alaska
German death toll in Tunisian blast hits 11
Indian Head of Gujarat State May Be Indicted For Genocide
Taliban regroup for widescale guerilla warfare April 20
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed April 20
Kidnapped Nation April 19
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine April 18
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
Indian military to train with U.S. forces in Alaska
Forwarded to us by Gordon A. MacKinlay, an article from the Washington Times by Shyam Bhatia and Desikan Thirunarayanapuram.
India and the United States are planning joint military exercises in
Alaska that could boost Indian capabilities in the Himalayan glaciers of
northern Kashmir where it faces Pakistan and China.
A spokesman for the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii said the plan is
being worked out and the exercises will be held next year.
The U.S. plan to help India, which in the past has fought at high
altitudes against both China and Pakistan, is likely to anger those
countries. Pakistan has become an important U.S. ally in the war on
terrorism.
This will be the first time Indian forces have been invited to
participate in military exercises on the North American continent. It
signals an expansion of defense links between the two countries that already
encompass intelligence sharing and joint naval patrols in the Indian Ocean
between the Straits of Malacca and the Straits of Hormuz.
"Post September 11, there has been a sea change in our relationship
with the United States, and things have changed," Indian Defense Minister
George Fernandes said in an interview. "Our troops and air force units will
soon go to Alaska to do joint exercises. You wouldn't have thought about it
earlier."
Mr. Fernandes said the climate and terrain in Alaska would match
conditions in the Siachen Glacier of northern Kashmir, where the Indian and
Pakistani armies have clashed periodically.
"After all, the Indian army would also like to be trained in areas
where the climate is like Siachen. There is nothing amazing about it," Mr.
Fernandes said.
The U.S. and Indian air forces also will conduct joint exercises in the
South Asian region, he said. "All the three services will have joint
exercises."
Joseph Cirincione, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in Washington, said the plan for exercises in Alaska
"definitely marks new levels of cooperation" with India. The United States
conducts these kinds of training exercises only with its allies and close
friends.
Mr. Cirincione said Washington should be prepared to face the political
and diplomatic implications of the move. "It's very likely that Pakistan
will have a strong reaction. The same might be said of China. What's the
purpose of this training, and who are they training against?"
Capt. John Singley, spokesman for the Pacific Command, which deals with
India but not Pakistan, said the plan includes airborne, platoon-level
training with the U.S. Army in Alaska. A platoon is composed of roughly 60
soldiers. The Indian side would include a platoon and some observers.
During a visit to New Delhi on Nov. 29, Adm. Dennis Blair, commander of
the Pacific Command, proposed improving bilateral military ties that had
been frozen since India conducted nuclear tests in 1998. The plan for the
Alaska exercises was requested by Mr. Fernandes, Capt. Singley said.
Adm. Blair's visit was followed by a defense policy group meeting in
December and a lower-level executive steering group meeting in February,
when several training opportunities between the two countries, including the
Alaska exercise, were discussed, Capt. Singley said.
He said the original idea was for a "mountain warfare exercise." The
mountains in Alaska are "tall and cold," Capt. Singley said, but "it may not
be extremely accurate" to derive that the intent of the exercises is to
prepare India for warfare in the Himalayan glaciers.
At an altitude of 18,000 feet with temperatures dropping to 50 degrees
below zero and sudden blizzards, Siachen Glacier, claimed by both India and
Pakistan, is one of the toughest battlefields in the world.
At $13.3 billion, India's defense budget is a fraction of the U.S.
defense budget of $379 billion. Meanwhile, India's powerful neighbor, China,
has projected its annual defense spending this year at $20 billion.
Mr. Fernandes said India's defense budget for this fiscal year will
grow - 14 percent according to published figures - but that substantial sums
are needed to build houses for armed forces personnel and to upgrade weapons
that he describes as of "vintage quality."
[We hope the planned exercise has some purpose not yet disclosed. Inviting the Indian Army to Alaska to learn the finer points of cold-weather mountain warfare is like inviting the old North Vietnamese army to Central America to learn the finer points of jungle warfare. We are also unaware of any platoons in the US or Indian Armies that are 60 men in size. But then what do we know, we're from Iowa. Editor
Return To Top April 21, 2002
German death toll in Tunisian blast hits 11
From IRNA
A total of 16 people have died so far following last week's
deadly explosion.
The German Interior Ministry denied Wednesday press reports that
they had received prior warnings about the terrorist attack.
Interior Minister Otto Schily called the claims "absurd and
irresponsible".
The daily Bild, citing unnamed security sources, reported that
the Federal Crime Office received warnings that extremists planned to
kill tourists in Tunisia.
German authorities released two suspects over the past two days,
saying there were no grounds for major suspicion against the men.
Return To Top April 21, 2002
Indian Head of Gujarat State May Be Indicted For Genocide
From the Times of India
Britain-based Gujaratis are working alongside the British government to bring three cases in three separate courts across Europe against Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.
The cases, which are to be filed separately in the British High Court, the Belgian courts and, possibly, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, are expected to compliment two other proposed cases against Modi and his administration in India and the US.
The charges, ranging from complicity with murder to genocide, could, theoretically, lead to a formal request for Modi's extradition.
Sulaiman Qazi, solicitor and cousin of British national Mohammed Aswat who was killed near Ahmedabad, says that the British government is cooperating fully in the preparation of the case, which could be filed in as little as "four or five weeks."
Describing the Gujarat violence as "a crime against humanity and not against one community," Qazi said he felt the British Foreign Office (FCO) would support them to the hilt.
"The FCO has said that high-ranking officials were responsible for the massacre of innocents and we know that is a statement of support if it comes to extradition," Qazi told The Sunday Times of India as he worked on a "a database consisting of hundreds of eyewitness accounts, with verifiable names, addresses and contact numbers."
Qazi's search for "admissible and irrefragible evidence against Modi, which would prove he had a direct hand in the killing of my cousin," will hinge on the testimony of a fourth British Muslim who was travelling with Aswat and saw his companions "lynched, set on fire and brutally murdered."
The man, who along with the other three, belongs to a West Yorkshire region made up of 15,000 Indian Gujarati Muslims, returned to the UK on Thursday after being nursed back to health by the British authorities in India. His testimony was also recorded by the British political secretary in Mumbai.
The British case, to be filed by all four British families will not only charge the VHP, the RSS and the BJP, but also "name specific names."
Qazi confirmed that British data-gathering, which took the form of a now-controversial and leaked report, has helped human rights organisations on the ground. London was, apparently, deeply involved in crucial data-gathering and, according to sources, two or three FCO officials flew out from here to join the British fact-finding team in India.
The Reaction From The Indian Government
From the
Times of India
The Vajpayee government is worried a scathing report on the Gujarat riots prepared by the British High Commission here might form the basis for British courts to indict Chief Minister Narendra Modi for 'complicity' in the killing of three British Muslims near Ahmedabad in early March - and possibly even genocide.
''We presume the British government will fight any such move, just as it opposed the idea of extraditing Pinochet,'' said an official, referring to the year-long legal battle by human rights activists to have the former Chilean dictator sent to Spain to face trial. ''But if the victims' family members move the courts in Britain, there is no telling what might happen''.
British law allows for jurisdiction when crimes are committed against citizens overseas. And since a similar provision was explicitly introduced into Indian statute books via the new Prevention of Terrorism Act, India would be hard put to invoke national sovereignty if a British court was to make an extradition request.
The Times of India has learned that at least two human rights organisations and several Indian lawyers in the UK are ''actively examining'' the possibility of moving the British courts against Modi and senior Gujarat officials for their alleged ''role'' in the killing.
''Based on all that has emerged'' said one London-based Indian lawyer, ''a strong case can be made out on the complicity of the state's leadership.''
She said reports of senior Gujarat ministers taking over police control rooms and preventing officers from saving lives ''will help establish the chain of command right to the top''.
What apparently has the Vajpayee government worried is that the British High Commission report also seems to support the charge that the riots were planned and that the police connived with the killers.
Any British court, which takes up the case, is likely to subpoena the report and use it to put pressure on the Blair government.
For the moment, the Blair government is handling the case gingerly. Its main concern seems to be securing adequate monetary compensation for its murdered citizens
Return To Top April 21, 2002
April 20, 2002
AFI Research has requested us to inform our readers that they have deleted Mr. Sharon's quoted remarks in yesterday's article on the Israeli Prime Minister. AFI says:
The respected US journalist Holger Jensen is to be congratulated for drawing attention to the considerable doubt that now surrounds the authenticity of the remarks previously attributed to Ariel Sharon in December 1982. Doubts about the veracity of such comments were also expressed by several of our Israeli associates. We will therefore allow Sharon's actions to speak for him instead.
Taliban regroup for widescale guerilla warfare
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed
Sharon Place Israel In Great Danger April 19
Kidnapped Nation April 19
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine April 18
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
Taliban regroup for widescale guerrilla warfare
From our colleauge Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
As many as 20,000 Taliban and foreign Islamic fighters have regrouped and been rearmed in Pakistan and are now
prepared to launch a late spring or summer offensive across the border into southern and eastern Afghanistan. They will eventually attempt to link up with upto another 15,000 well armed Taliban still believed to be hiding out in the villages and heavily defended bunker and cave networks dotted throughout the central mountain area of Afghanistan. This is the wilderness that defeated the best efforts of upto 80,000 Soviet Troops throughout their occupation of Afghanistan.
However, considerable efforts to counter the infiltration of large numbers of Taliban into the areas around Jalalabad, Gardez, Wazi Khwa and Maruf are being made and this is indeed the primary mission of the 300 or so British Royal Marines of 45 Commando operating in Paktia province to the south of Khost as part of Operation Ptarmigan. They are being supported by upto 200 US and Afghan troops as they sweep across the inhospitable and rugged area of high desert and 10,000ft mountains searching for the well hidden Taliban positions.
Some of the returning Taliban forces are those that are believed to have escaped the Shah-e-Kot valley of Paktia province during the US-led Operation Anaconda, Afghan sources suggest that the majority of the Taliban forces involved withdrew in good order across the border into Pakistan. Over the next week or so the British forces involved will be joined by an additional 1400 Royal Marines in an attempt to stop the flow of Islamic fighters across the frontier. Although under the overall control of US Central Command the Royal Marines do have a considerable degree of autonomy with their own large tactical area of operations. 45 Commando are reported to have already discovered and destroyed several unoccupied cave arms dumps and bunkers on the Afghan border with Pakistan.
British Marines attempt to cut off Taliban supply routes
The Royal Marines are reported to have also uncovered considerable quantities of papers and maps which should prove invaluable for the intelligence services. The area was heavily targeted by US Forces during Operation Anaconda in March and British intelligence officers are convinced that the so-called 'Ginger Valley' is one of the major re-supply lines for the Taliban bringing in weapons and ammunition from their supporters inside Pakistan.
There is growing evidence that the Taliban, as rightly predicted by AFI Research last year, have now switched to prolonged guerrilla warfare. The Taliban are known to have enough arms and ammunition to continue to fight for upwards of five years, they still have widespread underground support throughout central, southern and eastern Afghanistan, in north-western Pakistan, Kashmir and even Iran, the only really important question remaining was their stomach for further conflict. However, recent events would suggest that the Taliban still have a taste for battle and a determination to regain power. The Israel military operations in the West Bank, widely perceived by ordinary Muslims as an integral part of a US war against Islam, has strengthened the appeal of the Taliban and its new offshoots amongst many young Muslims.
Indeed, the new Taliban leadership has had some success in restoring its influence inside their traditional Pashtun homeland areas of Afghanistan and in rebuilding its links with certain Warlords from Hazara, Tajik, and other Pashtun groups in the north and east who for one reason or another feel disadvantaged or ignored by the new interim Government in Kabul. Afghanistan is still a land of shifting alliances and as the United States turns its attention to more pressing events in the Middle East old alliances and conflicts are re-appearing. This has not been helped by some of the victorious major Tajik and Uzbek Warlords taking violently anti-Pashtun actions that have led to virtual 'ethnic cleansing' in some areas.
Pashtun victims of 'ethnic cleansing'
A United Nations official said as recently as February 19th that some 20,000 people, mostly Pashtuns, have been forced to flee northern Afghanistan under threat of persecution since the beginning of the year. Violence against Pashpins may have begun as early as late December of 2001 and the UN has implied that the pace has increased substantially since early February. Little has been done by Washington to stop this humanitarian disaster, even though these events are directly leading to a revival of the Taliban's fortunes. Removing the Pashtun population from northern Afghanistan is one way for the Warlords to consolidate power and undermine any potential rebellion before it gets underway. The Tajik and Uzbek Warlord's have an appalling human rights reputation and their actions will probably lead to a de facto partition of Afghanistan along ethnic lines. Washington may have decided that this is the price that must be paid for the Warlords support in pushing the Taliban from power, however temporarily that might prove to be.
The danger remains that as the Taliban rebuild their power base in the south, that the main Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara groups
will sooner or later turn against each other and further split the country into small ungovernable and backward proto-states, with an increasingly isolated and powerless central government trapped in Kabul. The opportunities for interference by Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian states will grow as Afghanistan splinters into ethnic and warring factions. The problem for a United States anxious to de-couple itself from Afghanistan's apparently insoluble problems is that the risk of the conflict widening is also growing.
Return To Top April 20, 2002
Pakistan's third armored division confirmed
Our South Asia editor, Mandeep Bajwa has at last confirmed the existence of a third armored division in the Pakistan Army. This hotly debated issue is one of those arcane orbat questions of absolutely no interest to anyone except perhaps a dozen people, which is why you find it in analysis.orbat.com - No Orbat Too Obscure is our motto.
Many Indian newspapers had referred to a third armored division during the October-January mobilization crisis. The quality of military reporting in South Asia is, however, uniformly bad. Mr. Bajwa and I knew there probably was a third division because someone in military intelligence must have said something to a reporter. But there were all sorts of reasons to conclude there was no such formation, including the irrefutable one that Pakistan is a master of orbat disinformation at times of crisis. In the absence of concrete proof, we were unwilling to report this division. Now Mr. Bajwa has confirmed it at the highest possible level.
The division has indeed been a subject of Pakistan Army disinformation: but this time Pakistan was downplaying, instead of exaggerating its strength. We had reports from Pakistan that after the 1999 Kargil fighting, Pakistan put under raising no fewer than five new divisions, but none was appearing on any orbat we could get a hold of. The possibility of these new divisions was Reason Number 101 your editor was less than enthusiastic about an Indian offensive against Pakistan this past winter. Even two or three new divisions would have completely destroyed India's chances of a quick victory - not that there much chance of that even in the absence of these new formations.
This new division (Mr. Bajwa will provide the number in his own good time, and no, it isn't the 3rd Armored Division) has been masquerading as Pakistan V Corps Reserve. Mr. Sunil Sainis of Bharat Rakshak was the first to draw your editor's attention to this obscure formation, as he was curious as to what it was and why a major-general was in command.
Mr. Bajwa had also identified a Pakistan XXXI Corps reserve as a light armored division; your editor cautions against counting it as a real division at this time - a year down the road it may well be a real division. He feels another light armored division may be coming up in Pakistan XXX Corps. We will discuss another time the likely cantonments for the 2 or 3 new infantry divisions that have been raised or are raising since 1999.
Return To Top April 20, 2002
April 19, 2002
Sharon Place Israel In Great Danger
Kidnapped Nation
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine April 18
Somalia splits widen as another region breaks-away April 17
Eygpt Prepares Senior Commanders For Prospect Of War April 17
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
Sharon places Israel in great danger
From our friends at AFI research, an article by Marcus Cohen and Richard M. Bennett.
It is surprising that so many commentators and observers outside the Middle East have been taken aback by Israel's use of overwhelming military firepower on the West Bank and in Jenin Refugee Camp in particular or that it has so easily resorted to the assassination of Palestinian leaders. Israel has been one of the leading proponents of the use of deadly force against those who dare oppose it for many years, indeed the state of Israel was born out of Jewish terrorism both against the British and the Palestinians. The bombing of the British occupied King David Hotel went hand in hand with the massacre of Arab civilians at Deir Yassin.
During the 1950's Israel pursued assassination as a tool of counter-terrorism, a policy that has regularly proved highly successful for Jerusalem ever since. In July 1956 for instance Israeli agents murdered two highly influential Colonels in Egyptian Military Intelligence, Hafaz and Mustafa who were believed to control Palestinian Fedayeen groups in Egypt and Jordan, by using terrorist-style parcel bombs. Another example followed hard on the Lod airport terrorist attack when Mossad officers in Beirut booby-trapped the car of poet and author Ghassan Kanafani who it was claimed was a member of the PFLP's Central Command and one of the planners behind the Lod massacre, he was killed along with his 17 year old niece.
These are but a tiny reminder of a policy followed by successive Israeli Governments of what amounts to state controlled terrorist operations carried out in response to state sponsored Arab terrorism. Such attacks are not declared Israeli policy, but have formed an important and integral part of Israel's defence for 50 years. Many high-ranking Israeli Military and Political leaders have openly advocated assassination of their Arab enemies, not just in the Middle East but all over the world, as witnessed by the bungled Mossad operation in Norway some years ago.
Sharon condemned by Israeli commission for Beirut massacre
The present Israeli Prime Minister, the former and highly controversial General, 'Arik' Sharon has been in the forefront and his views often appear to go well beyond a hatred of the Arabs merely because of their terrorist activities. While Officer Commanding (OC) IDF Southern Command he went so far as to advocate the formation of a special military command under direct General Staff control to eradicate Palestinian opponents of Israel throughout the world. Sharon had amply proved his ferocious anti-Palestinian credentials as Commander of the special Unit-101 and during his tenure as OC Southern Command when his violent and unorthodox military actions proved effective against an Arab insurgency.
Much later he was to be held responsible for the massacre of over 1500 Palestinian refugees in Sabra and Shatilla camps in Beirut by Israel's Lebanese Christian allies. Sharon, Minister of Defence at the time was accused of negligence by Israel's own Kahan commission into the events during the invasion of the Lebanon in 1982, for not using the Israeli troops surrounding the camp to prevent the massacre. However, many expert observers are much less charitable towards Sharon and lay the blame squarely at his feet, some would even argue that he deliberately encouraged the massacre, but though the suspicion remains no conclusive evidence that might prove him guilty of this war crime has been forthcoming. A former Lebanese warlord Elie Hobeika was reportedly intending to tell a Belgian court that Ariel Sharon was behind the 1982 massacre of Palestinian refugees, but was conveniently killed in January 2002 when his booby-trapped car exploded, making it even less likely that Sharon need concern himself with the past.
Sharon "Better a live Judeo-Nazi than a dead saint"
Sharon does little to hide his brutal philosophy, which earned him the nickname 'The Bulldozer',the real problem is that President Bush and his advisers are simply not listening or worse still have so little regard for the Islamic world that they don't care what sort of man they have in Sharon as an ally. To quote Ariel Sharon's own words in December 1982;
[Quotes deleted at AFI Research's request on April 20, 2002: explanation below]
The respected US journalist Holger Jensen is to be congratulated for drawing attention to the considerable doubt that now surrounds the authenticity of the remarks previously attributed to Ariel Sharon in December 1982. Doubts about the veracity of such comments were also expressed by several of our Israeli associates. We will therefore allow Sharon's actions to speak for him instead.
Respected US journalist Holger Jensen bluntly added
"But what kind of man is Secretary of State Colin Powell trying to persuade to make peace with the Palestinians? At 74, Sharon may be the last Israeli leader who fought for the Haganah, politely described as part of the "underground" that helped create the Jewish state in 1948. Often overlooked is that the Haganah and its offshoots, Irgun Zvai Leumi and the Stern Gang, once were considered terrorist organizations that bombed Arab bus stops, attacked Arab villages and killed quite a few Britons in fighting to end the British Mandate of Palestine.It also should be noted that two other former prime ministers of Israel, Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir, were leaders of the Irgun and the Stern Gang respectively. Among the atrocities these groups were responsible for was bombing the King David Hotel and massacring 250 Arab villagers in Deir Yassin. So it can safely be said that some of Israel's earliest patriots were no different from the Palestinians they call terrorists today"
Ambassador Habib "Sharon was a killer obsessed with hatred of Palestinians"
Ambassador Philip Habib was President Ronald Reagan's Special Middle East Envoy in 1982 and he gave a frightening estimation of Sharon's character that should be remembered when Colin Powell or any other US envoy is negotiating with him
"Sharon was a killer obsessed with hatred of Palestinians. I had promised Arafat that his people would not get any harm. Sharon, however, ignored this commitment entirely. Sharon's word is worth nil."
The warnings were posted as long ago as March 2001 that Sharon had not changed his views on becoming Prime Minister, when on returning from talks with President Bush in Washington he made it clear that any proposed US plans to build a new Arab coalition to confront Iraq could not be achieved at Israel's expense. Sharon indicated his forces would continue to target Palestinian militants for killing, a policy that has come under fire from the US and that Israel might be prepared to be flexible, but not "when it comes to the lives of Israeli citizens and their security."
The appalling crimes committed against Israel and many Western countries by Arab terrorists over the years are rightly condemned and such terrorist groups must be destroyed. Israel as a profound friend of the West and the only liberal democracy in the Middle East deserves both respect and support, but its reputation has been severely tarnished by the actions of a violent and prejudiced leader. Israel's offensive against a largely defenceless Palestinian population has been rightly condemned by much of the international community and the IDF's actions in the Jenin refugee camp so reminiscent of a small scale version of the Nazi destruction of the Warsaw Ghetto has been castigated by human rights groups worldwide. Just how long a people with a tradition of both justice and compassion, and particularly with centuries of experience of prejudice and oppression can condone the rule of a man such as Sharon is questionable.
Return To Top April 19, 2002
Kidnapped Nation
This article, from Fortune was forwarded to us by Mr.
Ram Narayanan.
Your editor wants to make quite clear this article is not reproduced to trash Pakistan or Pakistanis. Your editor's position on Pakistan is that its internal affairs are its concern. What caught his eye was the description of the Pakistan economy. This is a great mystery to most people, and Fortune provides an explanation for how it works.
Pakistan conducts its foreign policy to further its interests, and while these interests may clash with those of India, Pakistan has every right to pursue them as it sees fit. Nonetheless, at analysis.orbat.com, it is our business to try and understand Pakistan. Your editor has no purpose or agenda beyond that.
By Richard Behar, April 17 2002 Issue
Flies are landing on Abdul Khaliq Siddiqi's body. But the secretary-general of
Sipah-e-Sahaba--one of the deadliest terror groups in Pakistan--is very much
alive and doesn't notice. "We were worried about the World Trade Center families
that were destroyed," Siddiqi says, sitting in a circle with fellow militants,
cross-legged and sipping black tea, at the group's office in Quetta. "But after
the U.S. attacked Afghanistan, it is our commitment that they are great men who
destroyed the World Trade Center." Shaking his fist, FORTUNE's host slips into a
20-minute diatribe, saying that Sept. 11 was "all the fault of Jews," vowing
that "God will destroy Bush," blaming President Pervez Musharraf for the
Taliban's defeat, and providing details about the cash, supplies, and soldiers
Sipah had slipped across the porous border to aid the Taliban. "God willing,
that day is not far when the Islamic flag will be hoisted at the top of
America's buildings."
Across town, the scene is just as chilling at Al-Badar Mujahideen's "House of
Martyrs," where a visitor is expected to remove his shoes on one of three flags
taped to the floor--U.S., Israeli, and Indian. "You're the only American we've
allowed inside," says Umer Inqlabi, the 36-year-old bearded commander, as he
invites a FORTUNE reporter to eat curry with fellow guerrillas and watch a video
of the group's violent escapades in Afghanistan, Kashmir, and Chechnya. "Today
you are my guest--my brother! But you belong to the enemy side. If I see you at
the war field, I will just kill you."
As the abduction and brutal murder of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl
makes clear, that war field now includes the streets of Pakistan. Pearl's death
and the mid-March bombing of a Protestant church in Islamabad are only the most
visible signs of a dysfunctional nation--call it Problemistan--a country that
professes to be an ally of the U.S. in its war on terrorism but probably harbors
more terrorists than any place on earth. It is the most unstable nuclear power
in the world, a land where even the best intentions are undermined by some of
the world's worst economic conditions. Despite some bold moves by Musharraf and
a talented team of ministers to steer the country in a new direction, Pakistan
is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, overwhelmed by poverty, vulnerable to a
fourth war with neighboring India, and unable to control thousands of jobless
jihadis whose anger is fueled by religious fundamentalists.
"You people just woke up to something that's been simmering for more than 20
years," says Mahmoud El Said, Egypt's ambassador to Pakistan, whose own embassy
in Islamabad was bombed in 1995. "We as Arabs and Muslims have a lot of
soul-searching to do. We let those fanatics hijack the religion."
And, so it would seem, a nation. A ten-week journey through Pakistan--and dozens
of interviews with suicide bombers, government ministers, Western-trained
bankers, tribal gun dealers, and illegal moneychangers--confirms this notion of
a society held hostage. Corruption is so deeply ingrained in all aspects of
Pakistani life, from the stock market to the country's own intelligence
services, that rooting it out will require Herculean efforts. (It has even
apparently penetrated the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, according to a former
employee, who told FORTUNE that a ring of American and Pakistani employees ran a
visa-selling racket there for at least three years, until after Sept. 11--a
charge the embassy says it will investigate.)
A list of Pakistan's problems reads like an encyclopedia of disaster. In a
nation of 140 million people, only one million tax returns are filed each year,
forcing the government to run up a debt almost equal to its GDP. Annual per
capita income is $430, the infant mortality rate is as high as in sub-Saharan
Africa, and nearly two-thirds of school-age children don't attend school. Many
of those who do are enrolled in religious academies called madrassahs, where the
only textbook is the Koran. Not surprisingly, more than half of the population
is illiterate. Roads are in terrible shape, much of the population doesn't have
access to clean water, there are frequent power outages, and the legal system is
in shambles.
Truth itself seems in short supply. When Musharraf's spokesman, Maj. Gen. Rashid
Qureshi, told FORTUNE that "before Sept. 11, I for one had not heard of al
Qaeda" and that he was "quite sure" Musharraf hadn't either, he must have
conveniently forgotten that the U.S. had bombed al Qaeda targets in Afghanistan
in 1998. And when Musharraf declared that less than 15% of Pakistan's population
was extremist-minded, he must not have seen a Gallup poll released in
mid-October, which found that 82% of urban Pakistanis viewed Osama bin Laden as
a freedom fighter.
Today, everyone from the American media to Musharraf's own spin machine paints
the Pakistani leader as an apolitical pragmatist on a tightrope, struggling to
crack down on terrorism and bring his country into the 21st century. But even if
you grant Musharraf's sincerity, it's an open question whether he has the will
or the power to take on the cancerous elite who have gotten rich from smuggling,
black markets, a crooked stock market, and an illegal moneychanging system--and
who have helped turn Pakistan into a hothouse for terrorism.
Ground zero for Pakistan's economic reform movement is the country's Securities
& Exchange Commission, launched in 1999 and modeled after America's SEC, where
Chairman Khalid Mirza, a Western-trained expert in capital markets, is battling
to institute basic disclosure and governance rules for public companies. It
seems a reasonable enough mission. But, says Mirza, "nobody is supporting it.
It's like the Greek myth of Ajax battling the elements. Transparency?
Accountability? Who wants it?"
Mirza's effort to reform the stock market has led brokers to take to the streets
with placards labeling him an "American agent." Behind the scenes, the situation
is even grimmer. "They [brokers] told me that people who do this don't last
long," says Mirza--adding with a nervous laugh, "in office, I mean." Still, his
friends have told him he needs to look after his own safety. "I'm not liked," he
says. "In fact, I'm considerably hated."
Mirza arrived on the job in March 2000 to find the stock market a cesspool of
Ponzi-like trading schemes. When measured by its capitalization (only $6
billion), the market had "the most phenomenal turnover, the most volatile
anywhere in the world," Mirza says. "And no dot-coms!" Almost all of the trading
was in just 30 stocks (the other 735 were listed largely for tax advantages).
The Karachi Stock Exchange, the country's premier bourse, was run by six
brokers. Fund diversion to crafty directors was commonplace, margin requirements
were nonexistent, and small investors were regularly scalped. Even commercial
banks were in on the action, lending money to crooked brokers, who in turn
loaned the money at 20% interest rates to the client- investors that the
brokers would ultimately gang up on and devour, a practice known as "cornering."
Shareholder meetings took place nine months after closing the books, and many
weren't held at all. Only six firms went public in 2001. Instead, the trend was
to buy back shares at the low points, delist, and liquidate assets--in effect a
deindustrialization of the economy.
And today? Although Mirza says the stock market is "a bit cleaner," massive
manipulation still takes place. "They [brokers] paid off everyone--government
officials, intelligence agencies," says one of Mirza's deputies, who asked not
to be identified. While new SEC regulations prevent brokers from managing the
exchange, they still control 60% of the board. The SEC was recently given a
mandate to regulate accountants, but the maximum fine for cooking the books is
only $30 per offense. "There are vested interests," complains Mirza.
The roots of corruption run deep. Last year the U.N. contracted one of Canada's
leading fraud experts, Wayne Blackburn, to prepare a report on the country's
money-laundering problems. "The whole economy is predicated on avoiding taxes,"
Blackburn says, adding that about 85% of all transactions are in cash, compared
with 3% in North America. "Our culture is money flow," says Jameel Yusuf, who
runs the Citizens-Police Liaison Committee, one of the country's most
sophisticated police agencies. "Nobody follows it."
Estimates of the size of the country's black-market economy, which includes
everything from underground banking to narcotics to the smuggling of consumer
goods, range up to 100% of the so-called formal sector. That ratio "is probably
the most severe" of any country in the world, says Muhammad Mansoor Ali, one of
Pakistan's leading economists. "It is essentially a parallel economy."
At the heart of this black-market economy is hundi, a network of brokers and
moneychangers who transmit funds to and from Pakistan without moving money
across borders or creating a paper trail. Similar systems exist all over the
world--hawala, flying money--primarily to serve poor people who are
uncomfortable entering banks or don't have access to them. But hundi has also
been used to facilitate drug trafficking, smuggling, terrorism, and tax evasion.
(Even the U.N. has moved funds into Pakistan in recent months through an illegal
money-exchange company in Quetta, according to U.N. memos reviewed by FORTUNE.)
A Citigroup banker says the hundi flows are "so robust that this economy defies
gravity." Pakistan should have had hyperinflation in 1998 after its nuclear bomb
tests caused capital flight, he says, and it should have had plummeting
foreign-exchange rates after Sept. 11. But neither of those things happened. The
reason: Hundi is both killing the economy and keeping it afloat.
Pakistan's financial situation is so precarious it came close to sovereign
default on its foreign debt last year, according to government documents
obtained by FORTUNE. The documents, prepared for the finance ministry, reveal
that nearly $8 billion was being remitted into the country each year by overseas
Pakistanis through the hundi system--none of it taxed--a far greater amount than
previously estimated and eight times what flows in through the country's banks.
And the documents don't even mention the $100 billion in capital that government
leaders estimate has been taken out of Pakistan in recent years.
Most experts say they either don't know or are too scared to identify who
controls the hundi system. But central bank insiders tell FORTUNE that six men,
all members of the Memon ethnic group, sit at its apex, which they describe as a
"mafia" or "cartel." The six have their bases in Karachi and Dubai and use each
other's networks, which stretch from Peshawar to New York. They keep a low
profile, driving broken-down cars and wearing traditional Pakistani clothes. But
the power they wield is enormous. "Hundi saps the very vitals of the country,"
says Razi-ur-Rahman Khan, who runs J.P. Morgan's banking operations in Pakistan.
"If hundi is stopped, it would be a boon."
It's difficult to pin down whether hundi is even illegal in Pakistan. Central
bank governor Ishrat Husain concedes there is much confusion. "It is not illegal
if done through licensed moneychangers who keep documentation," he says. At the
Karachi headquarters of Khanani & Kalia Intl., the country's largest licensed
chain of moneychangers, visitors must get past guards carrying AK-47s and men
counting stacks of bills to reach the office of Owais Kalia, one of four
brothers who runs the enterprise. He insists his company doesn't engage in
illegal money transfers, but documents obtained by FORTUNE detail five hundi
transfers from Kalia's Las Vegas office to Pakistan in recent years. One of
Husain's deputies says hundi is often arranged secretly by companies behind the
licensed changers and that it is illegal "in any form"--a position held by U.S.
officials and backed by the central bank's published rules. What gives? The
deputy says the bank winks at moneychangers big enough to maintain foreign
currency accounts in banks "either here, in Dubai, or abroad," so long as they
use those accounts as one layer in a hundi transfer.
Another reason for Husain's position may be that the central bank is itself
knee-deep in the muck. Since 1999 it has purchased $4.4 billion from dealers to
shore up dwindling dollar reserves and finance its trade deficits. "I had no
other option," says Husain, who insists that the purchases were made from
"reputable Pakistani firms based in the U.A.E." But the United Arab Emirates has
been the region's undisputed financial hub for drug and terror money, including
funds used for the Sept. 11 attacks. And by buying dollars in Dubai, complains
the treasurer of one of Pakistan's largest foreign banks, the government has
institutionalized hundi to a degree that doesn't exist anywhere else. "Here," he
says, "the tail wags the dog."
Every night wooden boats laden with cigarettes and auto parts and TVs set sail
from Dubai for Karachi. The cargo is bound for Afghanistan, thanks to a treaty
that allows the landlocked country to receive goods via Pakistan duty-free. In
reality most of the merchandise winds up staying in Pakistan--or quickly
returning there--evading import duties as high as 80%. That means cheap goods
for consumers on the streets of Karachi, but it's also destroying local
industry.
The smuggling racket, fueled by hundi and estimated at $5 billion a year, is
half the size of Pakistan's legal imports. It also helped feed the Taliban
treasury. Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider says he met with Taliban leaders
three times to get them to knock it off. "I said, 'You don't like TVs for your
people, and you say it's a satanic box, but you don't mind dumping them to your
Pakistani brothers without duties and taxes.' We did not get much cooperation."
Pakistan could shut the smuggler markets today--places like Quetta's silk
market, a Byzantine sprawl of stalls filled with acres of smuggled fabrics. But
shutting it, says Haider, "would be very hard on the people."
The government could also crack down on money smuggling by requiring the five
million Pakistanis living abroad to remit a minimum amount through the country's
banks each year or forfeit citizenship--a plan Pakistani officials considered
and rejected before Sept. 11. It was the terror attacks that finally sparked a
change, as overseas Pakistanis, fearing their accounts could be frozen by
Western governments, began sending money back through the banking system. That
helped bolster Pakistan's dollar reserves to $5 billion, up from $1 billion in
1999. And it inspired the central bank to propose incorporating hundi into the
banking system, so Pakistanis at home and abroad could more easily send money
through legitimate banking channels. "We are asking the banks to mimic hundi,"
says Husain. But how can banks do that, when Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz, a
former Citibank executive in Pakistan, tells FORTUNE that they "need to learn to
say no," and that "walk-in transactions should be discouraged"? Husain says the
time is right to go after the moneychangers, but he's afraid that hundi dealers
will join with extremist parties to protest. "We can't predict whether we'll
succeed or not," he adds. "They are very powerful--and some are very unhappy."
The battle over who gets to control the flow of money is being waged across
Pakistan. So far the reformers' prospects don't look good. Last July the head of
Pakistan State Oil, who was preparing to privatize the company, was murdered
after allegedly unearthing massive corruption in the state-owned oil business.
And in December the brother of Interior Minister Haider was gunned down on a
Karachi street, days after Haider had criticized the country's radical mullahs.
The crime has not been solved, even though Haider, a close friend of
Musharraf's, presides over the country's largest nonmilitary intelligence
agency.
A law still on the books in Pakistan calls for 80 lashes for Muslims caught
drinking alcohol. Even in the big cities, commoners sipping a can of beer are
often jailed for three months. But the rich? That's another story. At a party at
the lavish Islamabad home of one of Pakistan's top hoteliers, the liquor flows
freely as Roedad Khan, an advisor to six Presidents and author of the political
memoir Pakistan--A Dream Gone Sour, talks about Musharraf's chances at reform.
"It's too early to know," he says. "There's no accountability and too much
corruption."
Yet one can't help but admire the perseverance of Pakistan's younger
generation--the top model in Lahore who, in a country where 75% of the women are
illiterate, talks openly about "chick power"; the rising-star banker in Karachi
who says a new generation of Pakistanis, trained at Wharton and Harvard,
understands the need to invest in their family businesses rather than strip out
the profits. "They're forcing changes," says the banker, Munawar Noorani. "They
understand globalization and the need to be competitive."
Finance Minister Aziz is one of those who gets it. "This is a government of
professionals," he says. "There's no talk of scandal and corruption at the top.
It's a government that believes that it's not the government's business to be in
business." Aziz points to Musharraf's economic accomplishments: deregulating
interest rates, opening up markets, improving the skills of government workers.
But he admits he's worried about the enormousness of Pakistan's problems. "The
level of poverty is an issue that keeps me up," Aziz says. "A feeling of
injustice leads to extreme behavior--no hope, no jobs. They could become
radicalized, and that's not good for Pakistan or the world." One need only drive
through Korangi, one of the poorest sections of Karachi, to understand Aziz's
concerns: Outside a Kentucky Fried Chicken store, teenage employees, spiffy in
their KFC uniforms, pose for pictures and shout,
"We like Osama!" And those are the ones who have jobs. One Western diplomat in
Pakistan says his embassy calculates that for every 10% drop in textile exports
to the U.S.--the biggest destination for Pakistan's exports--some 300,000
Pakistanis are put out of work. But there doesn't seem to be much appetite in
Washington to take on domestic textile manufacturers and open U.S. markets to
more Pakistani imports. After touring a textile plant in Lahore in November,
U.S. Ambassador Wendy Chamberlin said it was "patriotic" for Americans to buy
Pakistani goods--a comment that caused a backlash back home. She hasn't repeated
the statement since.
Pakistan's Commerce Minister Abdul Razak Dawood warns that this is
short-sighted. He tells a story about a textile worker who lost his job and went
to his production manager for an explanation. He was told that America is not
placing orders. "Now what goes through his mind?" asks Dawood. "He said, 'I
thought we were on the same side as the Americans. What have I done wrong?' Next
Friday he goes to prayers and then joins the procession. Next, hundreds and then
thousands will do it. It snowballs. The West has to realize that there is no
safety net here."
How serious is Pakistan in the war on terror? "We are working on it on a 24-hour
basis," says Saiyed Mohib Asad, chief of the Federal Investigation
Agency--Pakistan's FBI--widely perceived to be one of the country's most inept
agencies. While dozens of suspected terrorists have been arrested in recent
weeks, some in joint operations with U.S. officials, it's not clear how far
Musharraf's commitment extends. His own spokesman, Gen. Qureshi, told FORTUNE
that no radical groups in Pakistan have links to al Qaeda and that the
government hasn't seen any evidence of terrorism funds moving through Pakistan.
Counterterrorism investigator Mazhar Hussain, an ex-air force sergeant,
disagrees. He says several of the more than 50 radical groups currently
operating in Pakistan have links to al Qaeda. "Osama is not alone," Hussain
says. "He has a big organization, in every city, in every district here."
Indeed, Pakistan has long been to terrorism what Las Vegas was to the Mafia--a
free zone, where any hood from any "family" can pass through with impunity.
The government doesn't have the law-enforcement capability to deal with the
problem. Until last August the nation's provincial police--the primary
investigators of terror in Pakistan--didn't have the authority to demand records
from banks, let alone from hundi operators. "If a terrorist has funds and
influence, he is free and can move anywhere in the country," says Zafar Anjum,
who runs one of Pakistan's only corporate investigative agencies. "We have laws
on the books, but there is no practical enforcement in Pakistan. Where are the
task forces on money laundering, organized crime, or terrorism? We don't have a
criminal database like the FBI. People are afraid to do investigations."
In late October officials let Said Bahaji, the alleged Sept. 11 logistical
mastermind, slip through their fingers at the Karachi airport, FORTUNE has
learned, because his name wasn't on an exit control list. And when it comes to
freezing terror funds, it's hard not to conclude that Pakistan is leaving
extremists just enough time to clean out their bank accounts. So far Pakistan
has managed to freeze roughly $300,000 in terrorist funds out of more than $100
million seized worldwide. Some of the highlights: $323.65 seized from the
Taliban consulate in Quetta; $1.50 hauled off from an account belonging to
Jaish-e-Muhammad, the radical group suspected of involvement in the murder of
Daniel Pearl. "I find it hard to believe there weren't more assets in Pakistan
banks," says John Bauman, U.S. consul general in Karachi.
The government's slowness in cracking down on groups such as Al-Badar and
Sipah--both of which are believed to have links to al Qaeda--raises questions
about how far Pakistan is willing to go in the war on terror. Sipah, which
police suspect is responsible for the deaths of ten Shiite Muslims in a mosque
in February, has been calling for jihads against the West for a year. It wasn't
banned by Pakistan until January, shortly after its meeting with FORTUNE.
Al-Badar, one of the largest militant groups in Kashmir, is still operating in
Pakistan even though a year has passed since the group's leader announced that
"jihad has become the foremost duty of the Muslim community against the U.S.,
Israel, and India."
Two years ago, when the newsroom of the highly regarded Business Recorder in
Karachi was torched following publication of a story linking religious
extremists to smuggling, Musharraf paid a visit. "I told him the sectarian
killing must stop," deputy CEO Arshad Zuberi recalls. "I said, 'You have to take
on these bearded fellows.' He said, 'Yeah, we're trying.'"
Whether Musharraf, who is seeking another five years in office, is trying hard
enough--and many say he isn't--the odds are stacked against him. "Nothing's
going to change here," says Naeem Zakeria, a gun dealer based near Peshawar who
says he lost a big order when the Taliban was driven from power. "Musharraf will
go eventually, and it will be back to business as usual. Just an endless cycle
of cancer."
FEEDBACK: rbehar@fortunemail.com
Return To Top April 19, 2002
April 18, 2002
Bush Modifies U.S. Infrastructure
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine
Somalia splits widen as another region breaks-away April 17
Eygpt Prepares Senior Commanders For Prospect Of War April 17
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
Bush Modifies U.S. Infrastructure
From our friends at MILNET, via AFI Research.
First Major Governmental Changes as a Direct Result of 9/11
Today the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Meyers announced changes to the UCP (Unified Command Plan) and Attorney General and INS Commissioner Jim Zeigler announced changes to the INS operational reporting structure.
U.S. UCP Changes
Effective October 1, 2002, the UCP will now include the Northern Command (NORCOM) which will take-over all the U.S. continental Area of Responsibility (AOR) from Joint Forces Command, and will also include Alaska, support for Canada in the North and the Northern Caribbean and Northern Mexico. The new command will also have responsibility of the waters at 500 miles out on American coastline. NORCOM will have its headquarters at Peterson AFB, Colorado. The Northern Command is a military command that will support civilian authorities in emergency events including attacks or natural disasters. This will allow one U.S. commander to control the entire North American Region.
Also effective October 1, the European Command (EUCOM) will add responsibility for all waters from 500 miles off the U.S. East Coast, to the Western coast of Africa and Europe, and the Mediterranean Sea, as well as areas surrounding the Caspian Sea. This will include Russia and the Balkan States. The new AOR additions for Europe reflect the change in cooperation between U.S. and Russia since the close of the Cold War.
All other geographical command areas remain the same.
General Meyers announced that a concept is under study to combine the U.S. Space Command and Strategic Command. The result of the study will be presented with a recommendation either way to Secretary Rumsfeld in the near future (this year).
INS Changes
The INS will now have all field operations report directly to the Commissioner in Washington, D.C. instead of through various district and regional offices. This will ensure consistent enforcement of INS regulations and a more direct and responsive chain of command in the service.
Also, a Chief Financial Officer for the service will be added to ensure that the large organization's fiduciary responsibilities are better maintained and proper oversight is performed.
A Chief Information Officer will be added to ensure that the INS computer and data services are brought up to date and kept current, providing intercommunication between U.S. immigration and Law Enforcement agencies both federal and local agencies being able to share bi-directional information.
The Commissioner will oversee a consolidation of the Detention and Removal of illegal immigrates at the borders. The Commissioner is also undertaking a study to separate the Detention and Removal operation from immigrant services. Included is an already assigned change to add specially trained personnel to work with unattended juveniles in the INS detention system.
Also, through Congressional help, the INS will now recognize and take steps to prevent the separation of families already in the U.S. despite their illegal status.
The INS will now be responsibility for tightening the U.S. borders, North and South, with accountability being monitored by the Commissioner under his new direct reporting structure to the field.
Also included in the changes are those effecting the monitoring and tracking of foreign exchange and student visa visitors in the U.S. Included are new methods for identifying such visa holders with better capabilities for tying the ID to the person intended, reducing or eliminating false IDs.
For more information on the U.S. military changes, visit the MILNET page on the Unified Command structure.
Return To Top April 18, 2002
LTTE Offer of Ceasefire Genuine
A source who had many dealings with the LTTE confirms that the Tamil Tigers - or the "Lee-Tay" as some of the "in" Indians like to pronounce the acronym - are sincere in their offer of a ceasefire to Sri Lanka's decades-old and bloody civil war. The Indian newspapers are saying that the LTTE is worried the US was going to crack down on the organization as a terrorist group. Our source that that in fact both parts of the statement is correct. The LTTE is worried, and the US has been drawing up plans to counter the organization. Our source disclaimed any knowledge of what US plans might be; with so much else on Washington's plate we may reasonably assume that nothing imminent was in prospect; but we are told by others that Washington was indeed sending very clear messages to the LTTE to cease and desist or else.
All this is quite intriguing. The LTTE are so fanatical they make the old North Vietnamese Army look like boy scouts. Long before the unfortunate Palestinians thought of it, the LTTE has been using suicide bombers, and the common wisdom was that the women Tigers were even more ready to die than the men. We should clarify that while undoubtedly the Tamils were denied many rights by the Singhalese majority, compared to what the Israelis have done to the Palestinians, the Tamils had a cushy life. So their willingness to kamakazie, and to ingest cyanide rather than be captured, is born less of terminal despair than a belief in their cause. Any human or animal will turn around and fight to the death if there is no escape. We may be stretching the point, but the average Tamil's life was not much worse than an average Irishman's under British occupation. This makes the LTTE willingness to routinely fight to the death quite remarkable.
Why then have they caved in just because Uncle Sam has uttered a few threats? The LTTE feared no one. So why do they fear a faraway potential adversary who has many other things to do than worry about the LTTE? Readers's opinions are welcome.
Return To Top April 18, 2002
April 17, 2002
Somalia splits widen as another region breaks-away
Eygpt Prepares Senior Commanders For Prospect Of War
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov April 16
Somalia splits widen as another region breaks-away
An article by Richard M Bennett at AFI Research.
A group of Somali militia chiefs recently rejected out of hand the chance to take part in the formation of a new regional government and indeed went so far as to openly accuse the President of trying to wreck any long term chance of reconciliation between the country's many well armed and warring factions. Some of the warlords under the banner of the Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC), a loose coalition opposed to the government in Mogadishu initiated the creation of an autonomous administration to be known as the South-western Regional Government. Its titular leader is Hassan Mohamed Nur Shatigudud and this will become the third break-away region in Somalia. However some of the other SRRC leaders based in exile in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa declared the new administration null and void. Aden Abdullahi Nur Gabyo, one of the SRRC co-chairmen claimed that Shatigudud did not represent the will of the people in many parts of the region and was simply trying to impose his control over them.
It is certainly true that Shatigudud can only really lay claim to represent parts of Baidoa and Bakol and has little or no control whatsoever over the other regions of Gedeo, Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Lower Shebelle which he however claims to represent. Gabyo and another SRRC leader Hussein Aideed have clearly stated their intention to oppose the move to divide Somalia further and risk destroying any chance of achieving anything tangible at the peace talks that were scheduled to be held in Nairobi within the month. It remains extremely unlikely that the additional split in what remains of the Somali government infrastructure will receive any international recognition or indeed any worthwhile attention. Neighbouring states and the United Nations are likely to view any further attempt to divide the unity and territorial integrity of the Somalia with distrust and outright hostility.
Somalia has been without an effective central government of any kind since the 1991 overthrow of military dictator Mohamed Siad Barre. A transitional government set up in August 2000 and based in Mogadishu controls only parts of the capital and pockets of the rest of the country. Puntland in the north and Somaliland in the Northwest declared their independence from the rest of Somalia in 1998 and 1991 respectively and like the new Southwest Regional Government have not been recognized by the international community. What is of considerable importance is how this further example of Somali factionalism will affect Washington's attempts to discover whether there are active Al Qa'ida groups in the country.
Islamic terrorism still a target for US action
The United States has been conducting reconnaissance flights over Somalia for some time following the State Departments acknowledgement that the country could be a potential hideout. It is believed that several dozen Al Qa'ida fighters had escaped to Somalia to join up with local Islamic militants and to rebuild its previous close relationships, particularly with the Al-Itihaad Al-Islamiya fundamentalist movement. The CIA has placed a small number of covert intelligence field officers inside Somalia and these are believed to be operating alongside an equally small number of British SAS, however both have the advantage of considerable back-up from the major joint US National Security Agency and Israeli SIGINT listening base on the Eritrean island of Dahlak, US Electronic Warfare vessels in the Indian Ocean and secretive land based facilities in both Ethiopia and Kenya.
Following the disaster for the US Special Forces in the 1993 Mogadishu operation portrayed in the recent Hollywood film "Black Hawk Down" it is extremely unlikely that the United States will be prepared to take any unnecessary risks of a repetition and may restrict future activities to external pressure and clandestine operations. The alternative will be to be very heavy handed indeed and leave no doubt about their determination to destroy the Islamic terrorists in Somalia, but in a sane world it would be doubtful whether the few dozen Al Qa'ida that might have escaped to this war-torn country could possibly be worth the effort or the loss of innocent Somali lives.
Return To Top April 17, 2002
Eygpt Prepares Senior Commanders For Prospect Of War
From the Middle East news Line, forwarded by reader Gerry Hol:
CAIRO [MENL] -- Egypt is preparing senior military
commanders for the prospect of a regional war.
The preparations have included high-level government
briefings of army commanders and a review of weapons
and supplies of the major military commands.
Over the weekend, Egyptian Defense Minister Hussein
Tantawi gathered commanders and senior officers of the
Second and Third armies. Both armies, which have
completed a series of exercises over the past year,
are deployed in northeastern Egypt as well as in the
Sinai Peninsula near the Israeli border.
The official Egyptian news agency reported that
Tantawi reviewed the regional situation as well as
military preparations to repel any enemy attack. The
defense minister said his briefing was meant to
provide commanders with a complete picture of the
region.
Return To Top April 17, 2002
April 16, 2002
Europe may face a new wave of domestic terrorism
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov
Europe may face a new wave of domestic terrorism
Forwarded by our friends at AFI Research, an article by NJV
While the world is focused on the threat of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism, Afghanistan and the Middle East it seems that after a lull in activity, terrorism is showing is on the rise again in Europe. The extreme left has been quiet for several months but the last few weeks would seem to indicate that there is a now renewed activity particularly in Italy, France and Spain.
Italy has increased its security following the assassination of Professor Marco Biagi and the renewed threat stemming from extreme left groups. It had been quiet in Italy in relation to terrorism in the aftermath of 11 September 2001 until the New Red Brigades (NRB) started another wave of attacks and threats. The NRB were very active in the summer of last year during which they issued a number of serious threats to political leaders, large companies, and even foreign military personnel. It seems that the NRB has picked up were they left off last year and recently assassinated the government advisor Professor Marco Biagi.
It is expected that the NRB together with other groups from the extreme left will continue with their threats against trade unions, foreign business, multi-national companies and leading personalities. The New Red Brigades are an offspring of the former Red Brigades, who as with so many of the extreme Left groups lost both their main sponsor and a large part of their ideology with the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Allegedly the NRB now has links with other groups from the extreme left across Europe and has developed an 'understanding' with various terrorist groups including ETA and the Real IRA. Besides the threat from the NRB, the US state department also issued a warning on possible international terrorist actions against US sites inside Italy.
France and Spain have to some extent co-ordinated and increased their efforts to crack down on ETA (Basque Fatherland and Liberty - Euzkadi Ta Askatasuna) and this has achieved some limited success. The arrest of Batasuna (political wing of ETA) treasurer, Jon Gorrotxategi, and the indictment of party employee Mikel Corcuera by the French courts for financing terrorism in connection with the over 200,000 euros being moved to France from Belgium on Friday 15 March 2002. Further co-operation resulted between the two countries resulted in the temporarily extradition of Former ETA leader Julian Atxurra Egurola (alias; Pototo) to Spain by France to be tried in three terrorist related cases. The latest crackdown on ETA will be felt within the ranks of the organization and in the past this has usually resulted in an increase of attacks. While it is impossible to assess the capabilities of ETA at this moment, Spanish Police sources again expect a violent response.
Major threat of Islamic Terrorism in Europe
Within Europe in general, the warning issued a few months ago about "sleepers" and independent Islamic extremist cells who could stage attacks inside Europe remains in place, however no solid evidence has been provided as yet of the true extent of this threat. Abu Zubeida, the senior Al Qa'ida commander recently captured by US Security officers is known to have been planning a wide range of new attacks. It is certainly not possible to exclude Europe from his potential target list and in the early months of 2000, extremists affiliated to Al Qa'ida were planning an attack in Strasbourg. After the arrest of several of the terrorists which prevented the attack from taking place, it became clear that the terrorists had access to a very large support network throughout Europe and It is safe to assume that much of this network is still fully operational.
Italy, France, Spain, Croatia, Serbia and the former-Soviet Baltic states are plagued by both leftist and neo-fascist extremist groups, but other countries such as Greece, Germany and the Ukraine have the potential for becoming deeply involved as well. A degree of co-operation between European domestic terrorist groups, ethnic extremist organizations and Islamic Jihad already exists and is being taken extremely seriously by European Security officials. Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo have become European hotbeds of Iranian-backed Islamic terrorism and Al Qa'ida in particular, but unfortunately the United States and NATO have, through an odd confusion of policies, seen fit to both protect and re-arm the countries concerned.
Another growing concern throughout Europe is the increase in activity, and potential dangers stemming from it, of the Anti Globalization Movement (AGM). However it is not possible to see the AGM as a true terrorist organization, but the opportunity exists for several extremists and terrorist groups to use the AGM as an umbrella for their activities. The rhetoric emanating from the extreme left is of concern and the latest actions by the New Red Brigades in Italy, although not directly linked to the AGM, point towards the direction of more attacks on multinational concerns in the immediate future. The extreme left and the AGM are thriving and indeed taking advantage of the changed focus of interest towards Islamic extremist groups and their sponsors which is currently dominating the main Intelligence and security services. It is threatening to leave a void for the extreme left groups to exploit.
There is also a risk that the AGM once denied its goals through non-violent action will spawn new break-away groups who will turn to more violent action out of frustration with the democratic process and eventually resort to terrorist techniques as their weapon of first choice.
[In connection with the above, your editor received a letter today that he immediately deleted on account of its rather colorful language. He should have saved it for a more detailed reading. He accessed his email at school during lunch, when he was also proctoring makeup exams and many children were coming up to his desk, thus his instinctive reaction.
The letter was from a Muslim gentleman, and it appeared to be a copy of one forwarded to a think tank regarding a book - your editor thinks - by Michael Dadu. The gist of the letter was:
By insisting there is a clash of civilizations, you are creating a situation in which you will leave Muslims no alternative except to clash, and then the West will really be in trouble. Presently only a small number of Muslims are extremists, but by your treatment of us you are turning all of us into extremists.]
Return To Top April 16, 2002
India In Tough Negotiations Over Gorshkov
We learn that India is engaged in some very tough bargaining with the Russians over the Gorshkov, which the Indians seem to own if they have paid their $1 to the Russian treasury. That's what the Gorshkov has been sold for. As we had suspected, the $6.6 billion worth of arms under negotiation is a package, not just for the carrier and also includes, we are told, ground and air equipment. With the sums at stake, the Russians, always difficult opponents when sitting across the table, are trying to extract maximum advantage from India.
Contrary to what we had thought, the ship is in excellent material condition. She is berthed at Murmsansk, and the water there is almost fresh. There has been very little corrosion. The problem is the boilers, which look as if they will have to be replaced.
A quiet controversy in the Indian Navy over the fighter to be embarked has been won by the MiG-29 advocates. The Su-27, favored by some because of its range and heavy weapons load has been ruled out because of its size. With just one carrier, the Indian Navy wants to pack the maximum number of aircraft on board.
Realistically, the Indian Navy is looking at a 5-year timeframe in bringing the Gorshkov - presumably renamed the Vikrant after India's first aircraft carrier into operational service. This assumes minimal problems with integrating the MiG-29 with a 40,000 ton carrier - 60,000 tons would appear to be a low-end size for an aircraft with the MiG-29s dimensions and weight
Given the idea was first broached in 1994, and given that many things go wrong in Indo-Russian negotiations, we should be cautious in assuming this is a done deal. We are told, nonetheless, the Indians have never been more serious.
[Related article, from our April 12, 2002 edition (we are unsure of the source):
The Indo-Russia deal
on aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov
will be finalised during Union
defence minister George
Fernandes' ongoing visit to
Moscow, top officials said.
Officials say that India has agreed
to make the advance payment for
the repair of the carrier as well as
for deals pertaining to installing
other related weapons-systems
Russia has been asking India to pay
25 per cent of the total deal amount
in advance to facilitate repair of the
carrier and installation of related
weaponry that involves 40
long-range maritime Tu-22m
reconnaissance jets and 20 Kamov
maritime helicopter.
The total deal including the supply
and complete technology transfer of
Kamov Helicopters along with the
Gorshkov will stand around Rs
33,000 crore.
But Russia still claims that Admiral
Gorshokov is a free gift to India.
Russia says that it will only charge
for the retrofitting and maintenance
of the aging aircraft carrier that was
briefly commissioned into Russian
navy in 1987 for a period of two
years.
India has agreed to pay the
advanced payments in three
installments within a period of six
months.
The defence ministry has already
asked the Union finance ministry to
fasten the process of payment to
Russian authorities.
India wants to get the entire
technology-transfer and future
joint research and development
of Kamov 35 and Kamov 55
Helicopters.
Analysts say that If India gets
hold of Kamov technology
transfer deal then it can
manufacture anti-submarine
warfare lightweight choppers,
which can operate in deep sea.
India is now facing problems in
deploying all-whether
reconnaissance helicopters
after the grounding of aging
British-made Sea King
helicopters due to
technological complications.
Return To Top April 16, 2002
April 15, 2002
Washington suffers a major reverse in Latin America
Space: The Forgotten Frontier April 14
US Returns To Bad Old Ways April 14
The Venezuelan Army finally had enough of a maverick President April 13
Madagascar: An Island divided by two Presidents April 12
India agrees to buy Gorshkov package for $6.6 billion April 12
Washington suffers a major reverse in Latin America
By our colleauge Richard M. Bennett of AFI Research and others in Venezuela.
In a dramatic twist, the democratically elected President of Venezuela has made an unexpected comeback when the US inspired military coup plotters realised that they had seriously miscalculated the level of his popular support and that they now faced a major revolt by pro-Chavez supporters and troops still loyal to the President throughout much of the country. Indeed it is rumoured that many junior and middle ranking military officers refused to fire on Chavez supporters who stormed the Presidential Palace on Saturday and apparently did not fully support American interference in Venezuelan politics.
President Hugo Chavez returned to the capital, only two days after being forced out of office by the country's military chiefs and a widespread US special operation, following the resignation of the interim leader Pedro Carmona, leader of the Fedecamaras business chamber, who lost the support of a nervous military leadership after dissolving the National Assembly. Carmona was soon forced to reverse his decision after armed forces chief General Efrain Vasquez said he would only support him if the congress was restored. Carmona was then forced to suspend the inauguration of his new cabinet. While this was happening, police were firing water cannon and tear gas to disperse tens of thousands of Chavez supporters who had surrounded the presidential palace which was then taken over by troops still loyal to Mr Chavez.
Vice-President Diosdado Cabello was then sworn in as president, but immediately confirmed that he was simply waiting to return the country to his ally Mr Chavez. An Air Force helicopter carrying Mr Chavez, who won an overwhelming general election victory in 1998, landed at the Presidential palace on Sunday morning after bringing him from a Caribbean island where he had been illegally detained. He is expected to be sworn back into office within the hour, while in other actions several television stations in Caracas have been taken over by supporters of Mr Chavez and pro-Chavez crowds have gathered in Caracas and other Venezuelan cities.
Will the military and their US supporters try again?
Leaders from other Latin American countries had quickly called meetings to discuss the situation in Venezuela and most are believed not to have recognised the military inspired change of government, although remaining critical of Mr Chavez and his controversial policies, most Latin American leaders do not want to set a precedent that would risk returning to the decades of US backed right-wing military take-overs and brutal dictatorships. What is still not clear is whether the Chief of the Armed Forces, General Efrain Vasquez will now back the return of Mr Chavez, resign or simply wait for another opportunity to stage a more successful and probably more violent coup d'etat.
Whatever Washington might be saying this morning, this return to power of a democratically elected, but anti-US leader is a major embarrassment and a potential threat to Washington's policy throughout Latin America. The United States desperately wanted his removal and in a major covert operation gave considerable assistance to the military plotters. Chavez has close links to Cuba, Iraq and a number of other states openly on Washington's 'hit-list', even more importantly he controls the worlds 4th largest oil reserve and could prove a valuable ally to Saddam Hussein. Just how far Chavez will feel able to go in openly challenging Washington is uncertain, and the possible reaction of the Venezuelan military and their United States supporters leaves this divided nation dangerously on the edge of outright civil war.
Return To Top April 15, 2002
April 14, 2002
Space: The Forgotten Frontier
US Returns To Bad Old Ways April 14
The Venezuelan Army finally had enough of a maverick President April 13
Madagascar: An Island divided by two Presidents April 12
India agrees to buy Gorshkov package for $6.6 billion April 12
Mexican Defense Minister to Discuss Possible Joint North American Military Force April 12
Critics Say Flaws in DOD Approach Keep Smart Bombs From Reaching Potential April 12
Space - The Forgotten Frontier
Fro oour friends at AFI Research, written by Alan Simpson
With all our attentions focused on the squabbles in the sandbox of the Middle East, chasing the mirage of Osama bin Laden, and debating how to finish the war with Iraq, we have missed the disturbing trends in our own heavens. Not "Little Green Men" from Mars, but little Gold and Silver satellites from Earth, and the rockets to put them up there.
Without these orbiting radio stations, modern warfare, navigation, commerce, and communications would cease. There are dark storm clouds on the horizon, and Space will soon become a battleground, of words, litigation, halted
projects, and ultimately defeated armies on the battlefield. Simply there is an acute shortage of spectrum, orbital slots, and far too many players joining the Space Race. With the technology to put a satellite into an accurate orbit, and with the ability to produce a nuclear explosion, comes the key to the exclusive Nuclear Club. But the problems, especially for the
United States, are just as much in the civil arena, as they are in the military.
The only hope for the congested civil aviation industry, is to go to a satellite based navigation system. The obvious, according to the US, is to use their GPS network, controlled by the Pentagon. Not so, say the Europeans. How can rely on a global navigation system that civilian access can be terminated at any time by a General in Washington. Just because America feels threatened, does not justify thousands of airliners being without navigation, and risking horrendous collisions. The Europeans
therefore have announced plans for a multi-billion global positioning and navigation system called Galileo. The US military is furious for they see it being used against US Forces on the field of battle. Paranoia, says the rest of the world, as the Russians already have an independent system, this is about US manufacturers losing their advantage with production, and
technology subsidies from the military.
If a country, or large corporation, wants a satellite to relay 60 channels of television to an entire continent, then it goes to the major manufacturers, such as Lockheed, or Hughes. If it wants a simple spy satellite, for a few hours, or days, it can build one itself. Here is another problem. The number of spy satellites being built, and launched is growing exponentially. They can be low orbit, recovered capsules, similar to the old Corona series, or SIGINT/ELINT built into communications satellites. Even high resolution photographs can be bought, of any area in the world, without the permission of the United States.
In the good old days of the Cold War, every satellite was either American, or Soviet. True other nations borrowed their launch vehicles, and put up their own, but even when Ariane came along, it was dominated by the Superpowers. The agreement was that the US and the Soviet Union would leave each others space assets alone. Now with so many nations having developed launch vehicles, or purchased surplus Soviet ICBM rockets, who knows what is being put into space. It is theoretically possible that North Korea, or Iran could cripple the US Military, given enough time, and with satellites
made by the local University. Japan, China, Russia, Israel, Iran, India, and several others can lob small satellites into orbit.
This brings up another confrontation. Countries around the globe want their slice of both the spectrum, and the slots around the Equator. The US occupies most of the slots in their hemisphere, and developing countries are starting to see problems with this "Wild West Space Grab". Some want them for themselves, others want the United States, and their rich commercial
operators, to pay rent. On the committees that allocate spectrum, the US has only one vote. This angers Washington, who feel the entire world should march to the beat of their drum. But Washington is no longer speaking with a unified voice, as the US military is at odds with US industry, and the US military have their own problems with deploying the latest command, control and communications equipment to potential battlefields around the world.
The US military is very spectrum greedy, and has grabbed huge chunks for their bandwidth hungry command and control networks. That works well in the US, but in Asia, and Europe that same spectrum is used for other purposes.
The frightening scenario is that some systems, which work great in Area 51, Afghanistan, and Somalia, may be jammed and prove useless if deployed to populated areas of the world. And there is growing competition for every slice of the spectrum, some frequencies, considered essential by the military, are being sought for a whole new generation of communication, and
computer devices. If the US military hangs on to a lot of it's frequency blocks, then US manufacturers will have no domestic market for a whole range of new wireless "Killer Apps". The option is to restrict the military, balancing huge profits, against a possible military conflict.
The concept of technology based warfare, special forces, and intelligent weapons has one "Achilles Heel", they all rely of space based technology, and assets. True it is difficult to knock out a satellite, and the spares, to achieve total system failures, but the problem with satellites is that they are up there, and we are down here. Break that link, and your multi-billion military weapon, becomes a pleasing firework,display in the night sky. But as long as you can keep the EP3's and similar aircraft out of enemy hands, then you keep the vulnerabilities secret.
Has anyone monitored the Japanese and Chinese Space program lately?
Return To Top April 14, 2002
US Returns To Bad Old Ways
By
Wayne Madsen in Washington DC and Richard M. Bennett of AFI Research.
The one important thing to be learnt from the Venezuelan coup is that the United States has not changed its view that only Governments acceptable to Washington can be allowed to survive in Latin America and that like it or not, the United States will undermine and help overthrow even legally elected administrations if it so chooses. This became obvious when Pentagon sources gleefully revealed that the United States provided critical military and intelligence support to the Venezuelan military coup against President Hugo Chavez on Friday 12th April.
Under the cover of the COMPTUEX and a Joint Task Force Exercise (JTFEX) training exercises in the Caribbean the US Navy provided signals intelligence and communications jamming support to the Venezuelan military. Particular focus by US Navy SIGINT vessels was on communications to and from the Cuban, Libyan, Iranian, and Iraqi diplomatic missions in Caracas. All four countries had expressed support for Chavez and the plans for US military and intelligence support for the coup d'etat were brought upto date following President Bush's visit to Peru and El Salvador in March 2002. The National Security Agency (NSA) supported the coup using personnel attached to the US Southern Command's Joint Interagency Task Force East (JIATF-E) in Key West, Florida. NSA's Spanish-language linguists and signals interception operators in Key West; Sabana Seca on Puerto Rico and the Regional Security Operating Centre (RSOC) in Medina, Texas also assisted in providing communications intelligence to US military and national command authorities on the progress of the coup d'etat.
From ea
stern Colombia, CIA and US contract military personnel, ostensibly used for counter-narcotics operations, stood by to provide logistics support for the leading members of the coup. Their activities were centred at the Marandua airfield and along the border with Venezuela. Patrol aircraft operating from the US Forward Operating Location (FOL) in Manta, Ecuador also provided intelligence support for the military move against Chavez. Additional USN vessels on a training exercise in the Outer Range of the US Navy's Southern Puerto Rican Operating Area also stood by in the event the coup against Chavez faltered, thus requiring a military evacuation of US citizens in Venezuela. The ships included the aircraft carrier USS George Washington and the destroyers USS Barry, Laboon, Mahan, and Arthur W. Radford. Some of the latter vessels reportedly had NSA Direct Support Units aboard to provide additional signals intelligence support to US Special Operations and intelligence personnel deployed on the ground in close co-operation with the Venezuelan Army and along the Colombian side of the border.
CIA relearn the rules of clandestine operations
For its part, the CIA provided Special Operations Group personnel, headed by a lieutenant colonel on loan from the US Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to help organize the coup against Chavez. They had been in the country since the summer of 2001 and consisting of US Special Operations Intelligence Support Activity (ISA) personnel. The group reportedly made contact with senior, pro-US military officers, including armed forces chief Gen. Lucas Rincon, Deputy Security minister Gen. Luis Camacho Kairuz, and business and union leaders, especially those with the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, and the Venezuelan Workers' Confederation (CTV). Last summer, the CIA lieutenant colonel began meeting with corporate and labour leaders at the PDVSA refinery in Maracaibo to lay plans for the coup against Chavez. One of those recruited early on by the CIA was the new interim Venezuelan President, Pedro Carmona, the head of the Fedecamaras business syndicate.
The coup was also supported by Special Operations psychological warfare (PSYOPs) personnel deployed from Fort Bragg, North Carolina. They put together Spanish-language television announcements, purportedly from Venezuelan political and business leaders and aired by Venezuelan television and radio stations, saying Chavez "provoked" the crisis by ordering his supporters to fire on peaceful protestors in Caracas. US electronic warfare technicians also helped to jam cell phone and radio frequencies in Caracas and other major cities in co-operation with the Intelligence Battalion "GRAL. DE BRIGADA ANDRES IBARRA" of the Venezuelan Army High Command
The United States overwhelming military power and dominating economic and political influence is allowing a drift back to the bad old days of CIA clandestine operations and covert subversion of any state that appears to threaten US interests. It is not just the inconvenient Palestinians who have been thrown to the Israeli 'wolves' or a Serbia to be bombed into submission.The 'war on terrorism' has already dragged in the so-called axis of evil of Iraq, Iran & North Korea to which Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan and the Philippines have been added.
The US instigated coup in Venezuela is meant to send a clear message to countries right across the world from South America, to Europe to Central Asia, Washingtons intentions are quite clear, they will take unilateral action to protect their interests. The post 9-11 United States has changed, perhaps more that many Europeans have realised. Washington actually means 'either you are for us or against us' and those who are considered against the US are immediate targets for a combination of economic and diplomatic pressure to bring them into line. If that fails then covert action, US supported coup d'etat and even military invasion cannot be ruled out. Washington intends to prevail, and that is the bottom line.
[Comment: President Chavez created the conditions which brought about his downfall. He proved to be nothing more than yet another tin pot despot, and South Americans are tired of that breed. We accept what Mr. Marsden and our colleague Mr. Bennett say about the CIA's involvement: we find Mr. Bennett to be quite accurate in these matters. Nonetheless, in our opinion, the CIA's role would be a minor one, that of a facilitator for some of the regime's opponents. Venezuela 2002 is not a banana republic circa 1932. The CIA and the whole might of the American government has not forced Mr. Fidel Castro from power after four decades of effort. That alone should tell us much about how little the CIA can actually achieve if a regime has support. Editor]
Return To Top April 14, 2002
April 13, 2002
The Venezuelan Army finally had enough of a maverick President
Palestinian Attack on Powell Motorcade Foiled
DEBKAfile Special Report
100 Killed in Nepal Maoist Attacks
Madagascar: An Island divided by two Presidents April 12
India agrees to buy Gorshkov package for $6.6 billion April 12
Mexican Defense Minister to Discuss Possible Joint North American Military Force
Critics Say Flaws in DOD Approach Keep Smart Bombs From Reaching Potential April 12
Germany slaps weapons embargo on Israel April 10
Who Really Killed Daniel Pearl? April 9
Update on US X-Series Aircraft April 9
The Venezuelan Army finally had enough of a maverick President
Forwarded by our friends at AFI Research, by Major Frank Haynes
The Venezuelan Armed Forces (FAN) Chiefs of Staff decided during Thursday 11th April that President Chavez could not be allowed to drag the country yet further into violence and disorder. It seems likely that there had been discussions between the military leadership and representatives of the CIA prior to the decision to remove Chavez. The armed forces, which have traditionally maintained strong ties with the USA, openly resented Chavez decision to move Venezuela out of Washington's orbit and the development of closer ties with leftist Colombian guerrillas and with Cuba. When the Caracas Metropolitan Police Force security department warned that "Chavistas", the most vociferous of the President's supporters, were distributing weapons in the slum strongholds of the President in the hills surrounding the capital, the Army decided to move. Troops and Police raided storehouses seizing hundreds of firearms.
The Intelligence Battalion of the Army High Command "GRAL. DE BRIGADA ANDRES IBARRA" was ordered to cut the Presidents communications with his supporters and the outside world, while the Caracas Garrison Security Battalion "GRAL. MANUEL MANRIQUE" moved to secure the Miraflores Presidential palace and other important pro-Chavez targets throughout the Capital. The entire 4th Armoured Division based at Maracay was put on alert to suppress any attempt by Chavez supporters or troops loyal to the President to stage organized resistance to the coup, with the 41st Armoured Brigade at Valencia and 43rd Mechanized Cavalry Brigade at San Juan de los Morros, Guárico, moving to block the highways into the City, while the elite 42nd Parachute Infantry Brigade was prepared to move from its base at Maracay into the Capital itself.
This followed the brutal attempt by President Hugo Chavez, the former army paratrooper who had politically polarized much of Venezuela with his strong-arm rule and whose growing friendship with both Castro and Saddam Hussein had severely irritated the United States, to crush a three-day old general strike and a demonstration by some 150,000 workers on Thursday. Heavily armed Presidential Guards, officers of the DISIP or Interior Ministry political police and dozens of members of the Bolivarian Circles co-ordinated by Vice President Diosdado Cabello, had opened fire on the largely peaceful and unarmed demonstrators who were demanding the Presidents resignation killing more than 14 people and wounding over 80 more. However, instead of consolidating his power base, the decision to repress political opponents by force brought a quick end to Chavez's three years as President.
Washington benefits from end of interruption of oil supplies
The former President is now being held at the Fort Tiuna, the main garrison base in the Greater Caracas Metropolitan Area, while investigators decide what charges he could face for Thursday's violence, said army commander Gen. Efrain Vasquez Velasco. Chavez asked to be allowed to go into exile in Cuba after the High Command confronted him en masse in his offices, but the military turned him down, Army General. Roman Fuemayor said.. "He has to be held accountable to his country,"
The first major action of the military was to end the general strike which has crippled the vitally important Venezuelan oil industry, the world's fourth largest oil exporter. It began on April 5th with the shutdown of the 135,000 barrel-per-day El Palito refinery and was severely disrupting both oil and gas production, refining and export operations in Venezuela. It threatened to further destabilize the worlds oil markets following Iraq's decision to suspend oil exports for a month. The Air Force chief, General Regulo Anselmi, said the military had actually urged Chavez on Wednesday to negotiate with the strikers and the oil industry chiefs, but it proved too late for the President for though he agreed, the oil executives rejected any such overtures from Chavez out of hand.
The United States is the main beneficiary of the removal of an increasingly anti-American President and the restoration of oil supplies at a time of an increasing threat to Middle Eastern oil reserves. Washington views the deteriorating security situation in South America with growing alarm, Colombia and Ecuador have seen the deployment of US Special Forces and the CIA have long been involved in Venezualan internal affairs. The concern is that the United States may be dragged into a major regional insurgency at a time when its armed forces are already being stretched to the limits by its present and future Middle Eastern and Asian commitments.
Return To Top April 13, 2002
Palestinian Attack on Powell Motorcade Foiled
DEBKAfile Special Report
From DebkaFile
Israeli security foiled a Palestinian terrorist attempt to hit the motorcade driving US secretary of state Colin Powellfrom Ben Gurion Airport to Jerusalem Thursday night, April 12, shortly after he landed. The Secretary was accompanied by Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres and heads of the US embassy.
Just before 9 pm IT, two hours before the US Secretary arrived, a Palestinian Red Crescent ambulance was stopped by a hidden Israeli security patrol near the gas station on the Modi'in-Jerusalem Highway 443. The driver and his mate had all the necessary permits for transporting a dead Palestinian policeman to the Gaza Strip. However, since Yasser Arafat's confinement in Ramallah, security has been intensified on all traffic coming from the direction of the Palestinian town, in case of an attempt to smuggle him out. In any case, in a war situation, in which passage from the West Bank to the Gaza Strip has been suspended, all permits are checked for forgeries.
The ambulance was therefore opened up and searched carefully. Hidden under the corpse was a large supply of explosives and a suicider's bomb belt.
According to some of DEBKAfile's sources, the two Palestinians admitted under questioning that they had planned to pull the ambulance up on the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv expressway, the route taken later by the Powell motorcade. One of the men was to stay in the vehicle, while the other strapped on the bomb belt and hid in some roadside bushes. When the secretary's car drove by, the ambulance was rigged to explode. The second bomber was then supposed to leap into the milling crowd of officials and security men and blow himself up.
At 22:07 IT, the booby-trapped Red Crescent ambulance was blown up in a controlled explosion, creating a bang loud enough to frighten dwellers in a broad radius and start the rumor of a rocket attack. Israel security is now investigating the provenance of the Red Crescent ambulance and the official permits.
Return To Top April 13, 2002
100 Killed in Nepal Maoist Attacks
From the Times of India, an AFP story.
Over 100 people have been killed, including some 84 policemen, in two attacks on Friday on police posts by Maoist rebels in southwestern Nepal, security sources said.
The policemen were killed when thousands of Maoists raided their posts at Satbaria and Lamahi areas in Dang district late on Thursday night in fighting that continued into the early morning.
Security sources said 12 rebels were confirmed dead in the raids, while six passengers were burnt to death on a nearby bus that was stopped by the Maoists.
Close to 3,000 people have died since the Maoists began their "people's war" to topple the constitutional monarchy in 1996.
Return To Top April 13, 2002
April 12, 2002
Madagascar: An Island divided by two Presidents
India agrees to buy Gorshkov package for $6.6 billion
Mexican Defense Minister to Discuss Possible Joint North American Military Force
Critics Say Flaws in DOD Approach Keep Smart Bombs From Reaching Potential
Pentagon to Review Troops, Needs April 10
Germany slaps weapons embargo on Israel April 10
Who Really Killed Daniel Pearl? April 9
Update on US X-Series Aircraft April 9
Madagascar: An Island divided by two Presidents
From our friends at AFI Research, an article by NJV.
Madagascar an island of 587040 sq. km in the Indian Ocean, which gained independence from France in 1960, is going through some rough times. Madagascar is a unitary state, otherwise known as the Malagasy Republic, with a president as Head of state, elected for a 5-year term. A directly elected legislative National Assembly elects the Prime Minister, who holds most of the executive power. The President "Admiral" Didier Ratsiraka came to power 23 years ago and was one of the last African Heads of State to refuse to democratically hand over power. The population demanded changes and this resulted in an emerging and powerful opposition over the last few years culminating in the last few months in large scale though peaceful demonstrations to remove Ratsiraka from power. Both Ratsiraka and his opponent Mr Marc Ravalomanana had claimed to have won last December's presidential elections, however the official results say neither received the 50% needed to win outright. Madagascar has been split down the middle, with two presidents, two governments, and two capitals since.
President Ratsiraka moved his base to the North Eastern port of Tamatave, his political heartland and away from the capital of Antananarivo, where the newly self-proclaimed President Marc Ravalomana has installed a parallel cabinet. President Didier Ratsiraka has blocked the road from the main port to the capital to starve the city of fuel in an act of desperation after a declaration of martial law saw him finally removed from power by his opponent Marc Ravalomana, as the military failed to impose its authority in support of their former leader.
Though the administrative power of the country is now in the hands of Marc Ravalomanana, backed by the people of Antananarivo and many tens of thousands of others around the country and until recent events the demonstrations to oust President Ratsiraka were in general peaceful with few incidents, it now seems that the situation is getting more violent and the prospects are increasingly grim as the new elections, scheduled for 28 April 2002, approach.
One of the two key players is Didier Ratsiraka whose career started in the military. Born in one of the underdeveloped coastal area of Madagascar, he gained a governmental sponsorship for studies at the French Naval academy in Brest. He was an excellent student and on his return to Madagascar he was appointed Minister of foreign affairs under the transitional government of General Ramantsoa. In 1975 he successfully re-negotiated Madagascar's position as a French protectorate and it came as no great surprise when he became the leader of his country. During his 23 year in power he exhibited both charisma and charm but his reign also showed political failings. His socialism didn't work and left the country poor even by the continents standards by the end of the eighties. In 1991 he ordered his security forces to open fire on demonstrators in front of his residence, killing a 130. Later that year he was voted out of office and went into self imposed exile. In 1994 he was re-elected with promises of increased co-operation with the international community and a liberalization of the economy.
His opponent Marc Ravalomanana is a self-made multi millionaire and vice-president of the Protestant church in Madagascar. He launched a successful clean-up campaign in the capital when he became mayor of Antananarivo and this is where most of his support is still located. Ravalomanana claims that the people of Madagascar now need discipline and that he will make them work by force if needed. It isn't clear what level of support Ravalomana has in the rural areas of the country and he is considered as a hard-liner by many in the professions and what little remains of the Trade Unions.
A nation split in two faces increasing violence
While Marc Ravalomanana has the control of the capital and is trying create a new administration for the entire country, he still remains only a self-proclaimed president. Ratsiraka is now concentrating on bringing the Ravalomanana administration to a halt through a variety of economic measures including attempts to make the free trade zone redundant and to both disrupt trade and transportation. It seems that these two opposing sides are pushing the country into a hostile stand-off.. According to a leading newspaper in Antananarivo the least destructive solution to defuse the current political climate would be organizing a referendum similar to those held by Gen Gabriel Ramanantsoa in 1972 and Lt-Cdr Didier Ratsiraka in 1975. In the event of a "yes" vote for change, Marc Ravalomanana would then be able to legally constitute his power, amend the constitution and offer an honourable exit to the former president.
Apparently the spectre of hatred and tribal division in some provinces is making observers nervous that the General Election may be marred by violence and intimidation with its validity called severely into question. On 26 March 2002, Pro-Ratsiraka police opened fire on demonstrators in the south-central city of Fianarantsoa killing six people and injuring about 40, some critically. The clashes occurred during a procession by Fianarantsoa crowds to install Mr Pety Rakotoniana MP as the head of the special delegation or chief of the Fianarantsoa Province in the new Ravalomanana-led "local government" structures. Pro-Ratsiraka officials also continue to restrict the use of air space in south-central region and the Beravina airport commander took the opportunity during an interview to inform the population of a decision taken by the pro-Ratsiraka governor on 5 March 2002 under number 02-PA/F/G, to prohibit aircraft from landing or even flying in the air space of the autonomous province of Fianarantsoa without special permission from the Ratsiraka authorities. Allegedly Anti-aircraft guns are now positioned at the airport ready to enforce this order.
Over the last few weeks, Ratsiraka supporters have been cutting off the capital from its ports by damaging bridges and roads. The economic isolation of the capital was made total at the beginning of April with the destruction of two more bridges severing the last links to the city. The humanitarian situation has also markedly deteriorated, according to The Working and Awareness Group on Human Rights. The abuses listed relate to ethnic hatred, political kidnappings, threats and violence. On April 3, the pro- Ravalomanana Defence Minister Gen Jules Mamizara made a strong appeal to senior and junior officers, as well as the rank and corps of both the Army and the Gendarmerie, to reject military orders from the pro-Ratsiraka leadership to destroy the country and kill Malagasy nationals, and called upon them to join President Marc Ravalomanana to rehabilitate and strengthen the Malagasy armed forces.
In the other provinces people are already feeling the shock waves of economic depression caused by the roadblocks set up by pro-Ratsiraka militiamen to starve Antananarivo Province of vital supplies. Indeed the roadblocks are depriving Tamatave, Fianarantsoa, Majunga and Tulear residents of some essential items such as milk, butter, flour and soap whose prices have been increased sharply over the past five days. Fuel has become scarce with the national oil refinery being situated in Toamasina a key east coast sea port which has been declared the "capital" of incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka's administration
In the near future, water and electricity supplied by the Antananarivo unit of the Jirama or National Power and Water Company may be rationed because of diesel oil shortage. The Miandrivazo town, in western Madgascar is already without electricity. On April 5th, President Marc Ravalomanana declared that Madagascar was now in a state of war and that a national security council would be established in order to hunt down all those believed to be 'terrorists' as Ratsiraka's supporters are increasingly described. The OAU (organization of African Unity) stated on April 6th that it is seriously concerned with the deteriorating situation in Madagascar and this concern must have been heightened over the last few days by crowds who have destroyed offices and homes belonging to Ratsiraka's officials in the capital. In attempt to win over international opinion the man appointed by Mr Ravalomanana as Prime Minister, Jacques Sylla, said the country would be guided by a vision of society based on truth and justice.
President Ratsiraka has often stated that he didn't need foreigners to tell him how to run the country and appears to have little interest in compromise. It is clear that Ravaloramana is also in no mood to back down. While Ratsiraka appears intent on maintaining the economic isolation of the capital which has serious consequences in the other provinces forcing Ravaloramana to take early and decisive action. Ravoloramana's decision to declare a 'state of war' against his opponent bodes ill for the future of this divided country and the security situation in Madagascar is likely to deteriorate even more in the immediate future.
Return To Top April 12, 2002
India agrees to buy Gorshkov package for $6.6 billion
Our South Asia editor Amitav Dutta forwards this article. The identification of the aircraft to be embarked as the Tu-22 is clearly a typographical error, though the Tu-22 is almost certainly part of the package. Given the amounts being quoted, we feel the deal also includes other naval ships and weapons. Nonetheless, we caution readers that such stories are common before official visits and in many cases are deliberately planted by interested parties, pro or con.
The Indo-Russia deal
on aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov
will be finalised during Union
defence minister George
Fernandes' ongoing visit to
Moscow, top officials said.
Officials say that India has agreed
to make the advance payment for
the repair of the carrier as well as
for deals pertaining to installing
other related weapons-systems
Russia has been asking India to pay
25 per cent of the total deal amount
in advance to facilitate repair of the
carrier and installation of related
weaponry that involves 40
long-range maritime Tu-22m
reconnaissance jets and 20 Kamov
maritime helicopter.
The total deal including the supply
and complete technology transfer of
Kamov Helicopters along with the
Gorshkov will stand around Rs
33,000 crore.
But Russia still claims that Admiral
Gorshokov is a free gift to India.
Russia says that it will only charge
for the retrofitting and maintenance
of the aging aircraft carrier that was
briefly commissioned into Russian
navy in 1987 for a period of two
years.
India has agreed to pay the
advanced payments in three
installments within a period of six
months.
The defence ministry has already
asked the Union finance ministry to
fasten the process of payment to
Russian authorities.
India wants to get the entire
technology-transfer and future
joint research and development
of Kamov 35 and Kamov 55
Helicopters.
Analysts say that If India gets
hold of Kamov technology
transfer deal then it can
manufacture anti-submarine
warfare lightweight choppers,
which can operate in deep sea.
India is now facing problems in
deploying all-whether
reconnaissance helicopters
after the grounding of aging
British-made Sea King
helicopters due to
technological complications.
Return To Top April 12, 2002
Mexican Defense Minister to Discuss Possible Joint North American Military Force
From Military.com story written by the Associated Press. Click for full story.
Mexico's defense secretary, Gen. Gerardo Vega, was flying to Washington on Thursday to discuss military cooperation that might link U.S., Mexican and Canadian forces against terrorism in a way that NAFTA has linked North America's economies.
The plan apparently is based on a U.S. Army War College report in 1999 that suggested a North American peacekeeping force that would be headquartered in the United States but include command posts that would rotate between Mexico and Canada.
"One of the programs the general will discuss in the United States is a continental command that would use the North American Free Trade Agreement as a basis,'' a Defense Department spokesman said. Department policy required him to speak on condition of anonymity.
Return To Top April 12, 2002
Critics Say Flaws in DOD Approach Keep Smart Bombs From Reaching Potential
A Stars and Stripes story appearing in Military.com. Click for full story.
ARLINGTON, Va. - Today's precision-strike weapons are reliable and effective, but three flaws in the way the Defense Department approaches air warfare are preventing "smart bombs" from reaching their potential, according to critics.
The Defense Department is working on at least two classified studies to analyze the air campaign in Afghanistan, Stars and Stripes has learned - one at the U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Fla., which is responsible for directing the war, and a second at the Center for Naval Analysis.
But the studies are far from finished, and no effectiveness estimates have been publicly released.
Return To Top April 12, 2002
Powell on a 'Mission Impossible'
Two Stories From IRNA
Israeli Reservists Killed in Jenin Tuesday: DebkaFile
Pentagon to Review Troops, Needs April 10
Germany slaps weapons embargo on Israel April 10
Who Really Killed Daniel Pearl? April 9
Update on US X-Series Aircraft April 9
Powell on a 'Mission Impossible'
From our friend Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
As Colin Powell makes his painfully slow progress towards Israel and the real purpose of his mission, it is becoming increasing clear to even the most optimistic observer that the likelihood of peace in the region is remote. Israel in all probability will not and some would argue cannot, accept the terms of a treaty that would allow the establishment of more than a vassal Palestinian state with severely limited powers. Israel will not easily accept the dismantling of the illegal Jewish settlements built on Arab lands seized in 1967 or the return to Palestinian and Syrian control the vital water resources that Israel undoubtedly relies upon.
Finally Israel will never accept the return of some 2.5 million Palestinians refugees to the West Bank and Israel itself. The great majority of Israeli's want to maintain overall control of regional security and a firm grip on the natural resources of the area. The threat of a peace treaty based on anything less than their own terms is a threat to Israel's very survival.
The Palestinians in turn are only likely to accept a treaty that gives them less than the demands made on Israel by countless United Nations resolutions, under extreme duress and military threat. The alternatives are not easy to find. The Saudi-US Peace plan which offers Arab recognition of Israel would still require Jerusalem to agree to pre-1967 borders, removal of illegal settlements and return of the refugees and is therefore an effective non-starter. A Washington brokered arrangement that involved the presence of US or even UN 'peace-keeping' forces to guarantee the security and integrity of Israel and a newly independent Palestinian state could bring huge economic problems for Israel. Not only might Jerusalem lose much of its cheap Arab labour, have to pay the Palestinians and Syrians for its water supply, see the destruction of all or most of its illegal settlements, but with peace in prospect, the eventual reduction in the flow of financial aid from the USA. Besides which, with the present committed pro-Israeli leadership in both the USA and UK there appears little chance that either of these two countries would be prepared to exert sufficient pressure on Israel to force acceptance of this or any similar agreement.
Israel's oft repeated solution for the refugees is to suggest that they be absorbed into the national populations of Jordan,Lebanon, Egypt and Syria. This has been rejected out of hand by the Arab states concerned. Not only would it also be deeply offensive to the Palestinian people, it would create a quite unacceptable and dangerous international precedent that you may drive a people from their land and then require the nations housing the refugees to adopt them. It would be a recipe for every tin-pot racist dictatorship to follow and such ideas were indeed denounced by Washington and the international community when Milosevic tried to turn the Kosovan Muslims into the Palestinians of Europe. Israel's answer to the problems of illegal settlements and water resources is to simply deny that there is a problem and refuse to discuss the matter constructively.
US Regional policy fundamentally flawed
The United States Middle East policy remains fundamentally flawed, it is firmly wedded to ultimately giving unquestioning support to Israel and a lack of respect for the Palestinian cause. Allied to a growing distrust, perhaps even dislike of the Islamic world it provides Washington with little real leverage in the Middle East beyond the 'carrot' of huge amounts of aid and the 'stick' of military action against those states that America disapproves of. This betrayal of the Palestinian cause by the international community is compounded by the chronic inability of the Arab world to pursue either an effective diplomatic or military policy.
The desperate realization of such weakness is fuelling yet another generation of extremists and suicide bombers.
Washington may just be able to broker a temporary truce between a frightened Israel and a battered Arafat, but as the suicide bombers who killed 13 Israeli soldiers on the West Bank and yet more civilians on a bus inside Israel clearly show, military action will not bring security or an end to terrorism. In fact the reverse is more likely. The observer may be forgiven for concluding that while this two war weary peoples are lead by such vengeful old men and Washington continues to avoid facing up to the harsh realities of the Middle East, that there remains little chance of bringing about a genuine settlement. There is little compassion and even less justice in the actions of either Israel or the Palestinians. Neither side is prepared to willingly draw back from the edge of war and those in both camps who suggest compromise, co-operation or understanding are immediately derided as unrealistic and misguided.
The outlook therefore is for a continuation of the conflict, not necessarily at its present high level, but sufficient to prevent any realistic prospect of peace. Israel cannot accept the terms of a just settlement for the Palestinians, as any agreement that satisfied the 100 or so UN resolutions ignored by successive Israeli Governments since 1949 would be the potential death knell of a Jewish State. That is a poisoned chalice that any Israeli Government, and particularly one under the old General, 'Arik' Sharon, definitely won't drink from.
Return To Top April 11, 2002
Two Stories From IRNA
Syria evacuates sensitive military position near Saida
Following the Wednesday military developments in Lebanon, Syria on Wednesday evening evacuated another sensitive military position to the north of coastal town of Saida refugee camp, 40 kilometers south of Beirut.
A Syrian monitoring and command headquarters in Romayleh region was totally evacuated and military lorries were seen transporting the quipment of the Syrian commanders towards Beirut.
IRNA contacted informed military sources in Lebanon who told us that the next destination of the Syrian military caravan would be Lebanon's Boqaa Valley, from where they will retreat to Syria.
Syria's Romayleh monitoring and command post that was established in 1988 was that country's only military position the in south of Lebanon.
Syria's military replacements that started during the last week of March 2002, is based on the agreements reached in a joint Syrian-Lebanese high military council in the framework of Taif Treaty.
In other military developments in Lebanon, the Syrian forces evacuated their bases from positions around the Lebanese residential Palace, the defense Ministry, the suburbs of Beirut, as well as those in Lebanon's Jabal Province.
The Syrian Army took military positions in Lebanon in 1976 in the framework of the Arab peace keeping forces whose main commitment was monitoring the ceasefire in Lebanon's civil war.
In 1978, following the first military incursion of the racist-Zionist army in Lebanon, the Arab League stressed that the Syrian forces should remain in Lebanon in order to assist that country's central government in maintaining Lebanon's solidarity and political sovereignty in its confrontations with separatist
tendencies of some extremist Christian groups, and of course the expansionism of the racist-Zionist regime.
According to the Taif Treaty, which was signed by Lebanese political authorities and parliamentarians, as well as the Arab League representatives, following the end of Lebanon's devastating civil war in 1989, it was agreed that the Syrian forces would start retreating form their positions in Lebanon within a year after signing the said treaty.
It was agreed in the same document that the Syrian forces should move towards Baqaa region, from where they will retreat to their positions inside Syrian soil.
Belgium denies cut in ties with Israel
Brussels, April 10, IRNA -- The Belgian government Wednesday
categorically denied that Belgium had cut ties with the Zionist state
or even withdrawn its ambassador from there.
Belgian foreign ministry spokesman Koen Vervaeke told a weekly
press briefing today that the Arab satellite channel Al-Jazira had
sent a dispatch saying that Belgium had cut ties with Israel.
''This it totally wrong. Belgium has not cut relations with
Israel, nor it has withdrawn its ambassador from Tel Aviv. It is
absolutely incorrect'' he said.
Vervake said EU Foreign Ministers in their meeting in Luxembourg
on Monday will discuss the situation in the Middle East.
Asked to comment on the Iraqi oil boycot in protest against
Israeli atrocities against Palestinians, Vervake said the ''impact is
quite limited,'' adding that Belgium was following the situation.
The spokesman said Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel met
Brussels-based Arab ambassadors last week and discussed with them the
current situation in Palestine.
Return To Top April 11, 2002
Israeli Reservists Killed in Jenin Tuesday: DebkaFile
Thirteen Israeli reservists, members of the same paratroop unit, were killed during a house-to-house search of the Jenin refugee camp for terrorists Tuesday, April 9. [The number appears to have gone up to 15. Editor] A bomb factory under a block of residential buildings was rigged to set off a chain of explosions. Dozens of Palestinians died in the same blast. The rescue team, which arrived to dig out the victims, then came under heavy fire from the rooftops. Aerial bombing of the camp, the main bastion of Jihad Islami, Fatah and Hamas, suicides, was ruled out because the terrorists hide in civilian homes. The IDF is therefore rounding them up on foot, while also eradicating vast dumps of explosives and weapons, which are also concealed in residential areas.
Maj. Oded Golomb, 32, from Kibbutz Nir David;
Capt. Yaacov Azulai, 28, from Migdal Ha'emek;
Lt. Dror Bar, 28, from Kibbutz Einat;
Lt. Eyal Yoel, 28, from Kibbutz Ramat Rachel, Jerusalem;
1st Sgt.-Maj. Yoram Levy, 33, from Elad;
1st Sgt.-Maj Tiran Arazi, 33, from Hadera;
1st Sgt.-Maj. Avner Yaskov, 34, from Beersheba;
1st Sgt.-Maj Menashe Hava, 23, from Kfar Saba;
Sgt.-Maj. Eyal Zimmerman, 22, from Raanana;
1st Sgt.-Maj. Ronen Al-Shohat, 27, from Ramle;
Sgt.-Maj Danny Meislish, 27, from Moshav Hemed;
Sgt.-Maj. Amit Bosidon, 22, from Bat Yam
Sgt.-Maj. Eyal Azouri, 27, from Ramat Gan
Return To Top April 11, 2002
April 10, 2002
Jenin Battle Will Determine War
Pentagon to Review Troops, Needs
Germany slaps weapons embargo on Israel
Who Really Killed Daniel Pearl? April 9
Update on US X-Series Aircraft April 9
US FBI sets up 16 offices in Pakistan: former ISI Chief April 8
Got To Get Tougher In A Hurry April 8
Jenin Battle Will Determine War
A DEBKAfile Special Report
The battle raging in the northern West Bank town of Jenin, the most savage and costly in life waged thus far in the counter-terror offensive Israel launched on March 29, will also determine its outcome. It will also decide if Yasser Arafat is doomed to stay locked in his two rooms in Ramallah.
DEBKAfile's military sources cannot give full details of the Jenin confrontation, but they report the IDF has thrown its ablest fighting units into the fray. This is an all-out effort to stem the bloodshed and snatch the advantage in a relentless standoff..
If the Palestinians win the day in Jenin, the Israeli army faces defeat at the end of its full-scale assault against their terror strongholds in seven West Bank cities - a failure that will gravely affect the Sharon national unity government's chances of survival.
Outside forces are already riding on the back of the Israeli ordeal in Jenin. First in line are the Americans. They are turning the screw relentlessly the closer secretary of state Colin Powell advances through Arab capitals towards Jerusalem, ordering Israel to remove its forces from Palestinian territory forthwith and begin lifting its siege on Arafat. Washington is also pushing hard for a US observer or peacemaking force to come in as a buffer between Israeli and Palestinian forces.
If this happens, many of Israel's dilemmas will be taken out of its hands. It will be spared negotiations with Palestinians on national boundaries, the borders of Jerusalem and the Palestinians right to repatriate 1948 Arab refugees. The internal debate over the Jewish settlements will no longer matter because the foreign observers and peacemakers will simply dismantle them as "obstacles to peace". The other fateful decisions will be settled by the American government along with the European Union and Arab governments. Israel's final frontiers will be drawn according to the locations of the foreign observers' positions. The Israeli government will be relieved of responsibility for anything happening across those frontiers, including decisions to pump terrorists and suicides into Israeli towns.
The Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon on Monday, April 8, expanded his national unity government and delivered a fighting speech on the moral justification of Israel's campaign to root out terrorists and suicides in their lairs. The same night, he began falling back in the face of US demands - Qalqilya and Tulkarm were evacuated within hours and Arafat was permitted to receive his top advisers, Abu Ala, Abu Mazen, Muhamed Dahlan and Saeb Arikat.
This may be no more than a tactical retreat. Tuesday noon, April 9, the prime minister's office in Jerusalem announced the inner defense cabinet of three (Sharon, defense minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer and foreign minister Shimon Peres) was dissolved and replaced with the expanded defense forum, including the three new ministers.
DEBKAfile 's political sources report that the prime minister did not receive the backing he expected from the two Labor ministers. He is therefore counting on the new ministers to support him in the prosecution of measures for bringing the costly Jenin battle to a successful conclusion, while standing up to mounting pressure from Washington.
With the Jenin battle still in the balance, foreign minister Shimon Peres took to the airwaves to say he was worried about its effect on world opinion after the fighting was over - especially of the Palestinian bodies strewn in the streets. Clearly conscious of the effect their dead comrades would have on the world's TV screens, the Palestinians refused to allow rescue vehicles to remove them. Some media also likened the stand taken by Jihad Islami fighters in Jenin to the last Jewish stand against the Romans at Massada, forgetting that less than two weeks ago members of this fanatical group stormed Israeli cafes with bomb belts strapped round them.
Since the Israeli military thrust into Palestinian cities, the threat of suicide terrorists that poisoned the air has been lifted. However, Tuesday, Israel is again beset by the traumas of rumor and unconfirmed reports.
To all the many worried phone callers, DEBKAfilesays that no reliable information is as yet available on Israeli casualties or missing men in Jenin. We shall release any information as soon as it comes in. The government and army command are strongly advised to scotch the wild rumors and dissipate their demoralizing effect with a timely word from official sources.
Return To Top April 10, 2002
Pentagon to Review Troops, Needs
An abbreviated report from the Associated Press, appearing in Military.com.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld won't try to expand the regular active-duty military until he is sure no one is being wasted on unnecessary jobs, the deputy defense secretary said Tuesday. Rumsfeld's view is that ``before we make that considerable investment and long-term commitment to increasing our force structure, let's make sure that in addition to having new requirements, there aren't old requirements that we could shed,'' Wolfowitz said.
Many lawmakers have encouraged Pentagon leaders to seek an increase the regular active-duty force to alleviate the burden on citizen-soldiers in the reserves and National Guard. More than 83,000 reservists and guardsmen are on active duty for the federal government, the most since the Gulf War a decade ago. Governors have called up another 7,000 guardsmen to provide airport security.
The four military services leaders have said they need 51,400 more people: The Army, 40,000; Air Force, 6,000; Marines, 2,400; and Navy, 3,000. The current personnel caps are Army, 480,000; Air Force 358,800; Marines 172,600; and Navy, 376,000.
Wolfowitz said Rumsfeld wants to make sure that ``we have really looked, scrubbed, thoroughly to make sure that ... we stop doing things that we should have stopped doing a long time ago.'' Each service is now searching for ways to reduce personnel needs, he said.
Return To Top April 10, 2002
Germany slaps weapons embargo on Israel
From IRNA.com.
For the first time ever, Germany has imposed
a weapons export embargo on Israel, the daily Financial Times
Deutschland (FTD) reported here Tuesday.
The Israeli defense ministry has confirmed that Germany's
national security council had not approved any arms export permits
for the last three months, FTD was quoted as saying.
The German government refused on Monday to provide concrete
information on the arms embargo against the Jewish state.
"Approval for arms are decided on a case-by-case basis, taking
into consideration legal stipulations and the current situation in
the region," a German economics ministry spokeswoman told DPA.
Germany has halted some 120 security-related exports, among them
components for the Israeli Merkava 4 tank which is being used in the
brutal Israeli repression of Palestinians in the autonomous
territories.
According to the latest arms export report of the German
government, released last November, Israel ranked seventh in the list
of arms exporting countries which receive German military hardware.
German arms exports to Israel totalled 177 million euros in 2000
and included submarine and tank spare parts.
Return To Top April 10, 2002
April 9, 2002
Israel Lives By The Sword…
Who Really Killed Daniel Pearl?
Update on US X-Series Aircraft
US FBI sets up 16 offices in Pakistan: former ISI Chief April 8
Got To Get Tough In A Hurry April 8
Military Operation Yields Eight Days Without Suicide Bombers April 7
Israel lives by the sword....
By our colleague Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
Israel is desperate to complete as much of its planned six week military campaign in the West Bank before international pressure on the United States forces President Bush to demand a genuine cessation of the operation. Israel is very aware that little has been achieved so far that will have a permanent effect on the Islamic terrorists. Hamas and other Palestinians groups are already vowing 'retaliation like you have never imagined' and with a traumatized and angry Arab population they are likely to receive even more support and many more volunteers for their suicide bombing campaign.
Sharon has also to balance a coalition Government riven with internal dissent and an Israeli population that like its Palestinian neighbours is traumatized, frightened and angry. However, Sharon remains certain of his base support in the US provided by a powerful Jewish Lobby, a personal relationship cemented with George W Bush during the future President's tour of Israel in 1998 which was guided by the future Israeli Prime Minister and indeed the wholehearted support of Tony Blair. Blair has a long term personal commitment that goes back even before a visit to Israel in January 1994 when it was suggested that the Israeli Government had picked up the bill for both Blair and his wife.
This was just prior to Blair becoming leader of the Labour Party and rumours, not so far denied, suggest that he became to some extent financially reliant on Israel's supporters, in particular to Michael Levy who is believed to have raised some £7 million for Blair. The suggestion that Blair's pro-Israeli stance has had a crucial effect on the Labour Governments policy-making cannot be ruled out and that both Britain and the United States relations with the Muslim world have been greatly damaged by an overly indulgent view of Israel's refusal to obey United Nations resolutions and its human rights record.
Rejects ill-founded international criticism
Israel would rightly argue that those who criticise its actions are not facing determined suicide bombers, nor do they understand the dire military position that would be faced by Israel if it returned to its pre-1967 borders without enforceable international guarantees of its future security. Israel is the only true elected democracy in the Middle East amid a sea of medieval Kingdom's and military Dictatorships and as such usually deserves the benefit of the doubt. Some Western journalists keen to prove their independence and neutrality have highlighted the undoubted involvement of the present Israeli Premier in the Christian Lebanese massacres of 1,500 Palestinian civilians in refugee camps around Beirut in 1982, however how many choose to comment on the events in the Syrian City of Hama in February 1982 when President Assad ordered his security troops to put down a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood, days later half the city had been totally destroyed and some 25,000 civilians had been killed.
Israel in common with all countries often deserves to be criticized, but it must be based on fairness and a genuine understanding of the regions problems, a fairness and justice that must also be extended to the Palestinians. Israel is probably approaching a point in the operations in the West Bank when any continuation, despite the General Staffs wish to finish the job, will prove highly counter-productive both to its international standing and in the huge boost it has given to the Islamic extremists.
Risks of a widening conflict
Israel too, knows that its northern border with the Lebanon is no longer safe and the risk of a second front opening up against the Hezbollah-Al Qa'ida terrorist network in the Beka'a Valley, the Iranian troops and some 20,000 Syrian Army personnel providing their main defence has grown immensely in recent days. Indeed, even if Sharon does significantly wind down the operations in the West Bank in deference to President Bush and the presence of Colin Powell, the Israeli Cabinet must soon decide whether to extend the campaign to the Gaza Strip, even though a serious conflict breaking out in the densely packed towns and camps of the Strip will bring with it the risk of a major humanitarian disaster and a total break-down of relations with Egypt.
Perversely the very strength and breadth of Israel's anti-terrorist sweep through the West Bank may provide no more than a temporary relief from the suicide bombings, the long term security view is far more pessimistic. The knee-jerk Islamic attitude will be a determination to exact a bloody revenge, to kill many more Israeli's. It is unlikely that there will be any serious Arab move towards finally accepting the reality of the Middle East and that the world has moved on, particularly since 9-11. Israel is not going to fade away, but equally the Palestinians have a right to a homeland and their refugee's will never be absorbed into the Arab nations that house their wretched camps. The bottom line remains two peoples, one land. It is an intractable problem that demands international intervention, not taking sides.
Return To Top April 9, 2002
Who Really Killed Daniel Pearl?
The US is ignoring evidence of links with Pakistan's secret service
Forwarded to us by reader Ethan Clauset, an article by Tariq Ali, the well-known British radical, from the web magazine Counterpunch.org
It has been a stunningly beautiful spring in Pakistan. But the surface calm is deceptive. When the war in Afghanistan began, I suggested that the Taliban would be rapidly defeated and that the "jihadi" organisations and their patrons would regroup in Pakistan and, sooner or later, start punishing General Musharraf's regime. This process is now under way.
In
recent months, the jihadis have scored three big hits: the kidnapping and brutal murder of the Wall Street Journal reporter, Daniel Pearl; the assassination of the interior minister's brother; and the bombing of a church in the heart of Islamabad's tightly protected diplomatic enclave. There have also been targeted killings of professionals in Karachi: more than a dozen doctors belonging to the Shi'a minority have been shot.
All these acts were designed as a warning to Pakistan's military ruler: if you go too far in accommodating Washington, your head will also roll. Some senior journalists believe an attempt on Musharraf's life has already taken place. Are these acts of terrorism actually carried out by hardline groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkatul Ansar, which often claim them? Probably, but these groups are only a shell. Turn them upside down and the rational kernel is revealed in the form of Pakistan's major intelligence agency - the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), whose manipulation of them has long been clear.
Those sections of the ISI who patronised and funded these organisations were livid at "the betrayal of the Taliban". Being forced to unravel the only victory they had ever scored - the Taliban takeover in Kabul - created enormous tensions inside the army. Unless this background is appreciated, the terrorism shaking the country today is inexplicable.
Colin Powell's statement of March 3, exonerating the ISI from any responsibility for Pearl's disappearance and murder, is shocking. Few in Pakistan believe such assurances. Musharraf was not involved, but he must know what took place. He has referred to Pearl as an "over- intrusive journalist" caught up in "intelligence games". Has he told Washington what he knows? And if so, why did Powell absolve the ISI?
The Pearl tragedy has shed some light on the darker recesses of the intelligence networks. Pearl was a gifted, independent-minded investigative journalist. On previous assignments he had established that the Sudanese pharmaceutical factory - bombed on Clinton's orders - was exactly that and not a shady installation producing biological and chemical weapons, as alleged by the White House. Subsequently, he wrote extensively on Kosovo, questioning some of the atrocity stories dished out by Nato spin-doctors to justify the war on Yugoslavia.
Pearl was never satisfied with official briefings or chats with approved local journalists. Those he was in touch with in Pakistan say he was working to uncover links between the intelligence services and terrorism. His newspaper has been remarkably coy, refusing to disclose the leads Pearl was pursuing.
Any western journalist visiting Pakistan is routinely watched and followed. The notion that Daniel Pearl, setting up contacts with extremist groups, was not being carefully monitored by the secret services is unbelievable - and nobody in Pakistan believes it.
The group which claimed to have kidnapped and killed Pearl - "The National Youth Movement for the Sovereignty of Pakistan" - is a confection. One of its demands was unique: the resumption of F-16 sales to Pakistan. A terrorist, jihadi group which supposedly regards the current regime as treacherous is putting forward a 20-year-old demand of the military and state bureaucracy.
The principal kidnapper, the former LSE student Omar Saeed Sheikh - whose trial begins in Karachi today - has added to the mystery. He carelessly condemned himself by surrendering to the provincial home secretary (a former ISI operative) on February 5. Sheikh is widely believed in Pakistan to be an experienced ISI "asset" with a history of operations in Kashmir. If he was extradited to Washington and decided to talk, the entire story would unravel. His family are fearful. They think he might be tried by a summary court and executed to prevent the identity of his confederates being revealed.
So mysterious has this affair become that one might wonder who is really running Pakistan. Official power is exercised by General Musharraf. But it is clear that his writ does not extend to the whole state apparatus, let alone the country. If a military regime cannot guarantee law and order, what can it hope to deliver? Meanwhile, Daniel Pearl's widow is owed an explanation by her own state department and the general in Islamabad.
Tariq Ali is a frequent contributor to CounterPunch. His latest book, The Clash of Fundamentalisms, is published by Verso.
Return To Top April 9, 2002
Update On US X-Series Aircraft
From Andreas Parsch, whose weapon designation pages are available on Orbat.com
- The X-46A is Boeing's entry in the Navy's UCAV-N (Unmanned Combat
Air Vehicle - Naval) competition (see
X-46A. So far, I haven't seen
any details about its configuration.)
- The X-47A "Pegasus" is Northrop-Grumman's entry in the Navy's UCAV-N
competition (see X-47A).
The X-47B is the projected full-scale version of the X-47A.
- The Boeing/NASA X-48A is a small unmanned BWB (Blended Wing-Body)
demonstrator. (See X-48A) The X-48A
is the 35 ft model mentioned in last paragraph).
- The Boeing/DARPA X-50A "Dragonfly" is a CRW (Canard Rotor/Wing)
demonstrator (see X-50A). The X-49
designator has been skipped for the time being, because DARPA (Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency) explicitly requested the X-50A
designation for the CRW demonstrator. DARPA wanted the number 50,
because "this will be the first true 50/50 marriage of helicopters
and high speed fixed wing aircraft" [DARPA quote]. However, the X-49
designation is not permanently skipped, and will be assigned when the
next X-designator is requested.
The information is based on data provided in DOD's aircraft nomenclature
records.
Return To Top April 9, 2002
April 8, 2002
US FBI sets up 16 offices in Pakistan: former ISI Chief
Got To Get Tough In A Hurry
Military Operation Yields Eight Days Without Suicide Bombers April 7
An Opposing Analysis Of the "Smoking Gun" April 6
US-Israeli joint team hunting Al Qa'ida fighters in the West Bank April 6
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril April 2
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
US FBI sets up 16 offices in Pakistan: former ISI Chief
From IRNA.com
The US FBI has set up 16 offices in different cities of Pakistan to track down al-Qaeda remnants, a former head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has claimed. "FBI was also involved in the recent crackdown on suspected al- Qaeda members in Lahore and Faisalabad, cities of eastern Punjab province," Hamid Gul, former ISI chief told South Asian News Agency on Sunday in an interview. Police had rounded up more than 50 al-Qaeda suspects in raids in Lahore and Faisalabad in eastern Punjab, province which media reports said, were supervised by FBI. However, Pakistani authorities have not specifically said the US agency was directly involved in the operations. He said the role of US intelligence agencies have increased in Pakistan in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks in America.
To a question about Afghanistan he said guerrilla war might re-start in the war battered country within three to five years. "US will have to bring more troops to the region to control the situation and probably the troops may be stationed in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan," Hamid Gul speculated. He said there was a possibility that America may doubt Pakistan for nuclear proliferation and deprive it of its nuclear capability. "US is likely to interfere in the northern areas, which includes, Gilgit and Skardu" the general added.
About the ongoing Israeli military blitz on Palestine, he criticized, 'nexus of Israel, America and India'. "The US is silent on the atrocities of Israeli forces in the beleaguered cities of Palestine. The same attitude has been shown towards the cries of innocent Kashmiris who are persecuted at the hands of Indian soldiers," he added. He also denounced Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) adopted by the Indian government saying it will be only applied in Indian administered Kashmir. General Hamid Gul also rejected the proposed presidential referendum in which President Pervez Musharraf will ask the nation to support him for another term in the presidency. "The US and world monetary institution want Musharraf to continue his rule," he concluded.
[General Hamid Gul's role in setting up the Taliban and his continuing involvement with its remenants is well known. His political commentary, as always, is immature and irrelevant. More interesting is his assessment that insurgency "may" revive in Afghanistan in the next 3-5 years. This indicates he believes the US led mission has been quite successful in the anti-Taliban campaign.]
Return To Top April 8, 2002
Got To Get Tough In A Hurry
The article is by David Hackworth a well-known defence writer and a much-decorated retired army officer. It is from Military.com Those familiar with the current American ethos of entitlement, victimhood, gender wars, and political correctness may be forgiven if they believe Col. Hackworth's article will have zero impact on the problem. Fortunately, one solution always works. In infantry combat, the unfit will die, the fit will survive. So America may well lose the first round, but it will get things right in the second.
Every week, fewer American flags are flying from cars and homes. And it becomes easier to rationalize the terrorist attacks of 9-11 as a terrible tragedy that happened to the folks in some other town rather than the ongoing threat to our way of life that this century's Day of Infamy really represents.
But out there in the global trenches, the war against international terrorism grows bloodier by the day and as a consequence more coffins draped with American flags will be turning up at Dover Air Force Base.
The first round in Afghanistan is still far from over and then there are rounds 2 through 30 to come: the running sore in the Middle East and Saddam's weapons of mass destruction; ex-Yugoslavia, where we have thousands of soldiers keeping that fragile peace, and dozens of other Bad Lands either on fire or waiting to ignite.
This complicated conflict won't be won by the smartness of munitions or the sagacity of diplomats, but by the grunt on the ground digging out the terrorist and either nailing him or jailing him. There's no way we'll prevail and protect Main Street USA without tough, well-trained soldiers.
Having led infantry squads, platoons, companies and battalions in combat for a bunch of years, I know that to make it on the battlefield grunts must be granite-hard both in body and mind, have the discipline of a Spartan warrior, know the basics of the fighting trade as well as what's on their dog tags, always sleep with one eye open, and be able to shoot as straight and fast as a Delta Force sniper.
But during the first serious fight involving U.S. conventional troops in Afghanistan, our soldiers were far from up for the game. They fought well, but were just not strong enough for the rugged mountains of Afghanistan.
The commander of the operation, Gen. Tommy Franks, pulled our boys out of the battle early so they could catch their breath, and brought in 1,700 fighting-fit British Marines. The British and Canadian news media recently reported that Franks said, "[T]he British troops may be more accomplished at some aspects of infantry warfare than their U.S. counterparts." One report added, "They know how to walk up mountains … They don't expect to be given a ride in a helicopter every time they want to get somewhere."
The poor physical condition of so many of our soldiers was no big surprise to me. When I eyeballed our kids going through initial training last year in a warm and fuzzy basic training course that's been made shockingly softer than the one I took 56 years ago, I concluded from my visits and the comments of scores of Army small unit leaders that many of these boys and girls -- some of whom could barely do two push-ups when they first reported to the Army Reception Station -- wouldn't make it in battle.
Last week, 50 highly motivated recent graduates of Fort Benning's Basic and Advanced Training programs and the storied Parachute School reported to Fort Bragg, N.C., to prepare for further training that would allow them to join our elite Special Forces units. "On Monday they took the PT test," a trainer there told me, "and over half of them failed to meet the standard."
So after three weeks of Basic, five weeks of Infantry advanced training and weeks of parachute training, over 50 percent of this group of young soldiers couldn't pass the push ups, sit ups and two-mile run.
"We aren't talking about some way-out SF standard, but the bare minimum required for any soldier to graduate basic training," reports another Special Forces sergeant. "If this is representative of what's happened to Infantry Basic training, I'm afraid to even ask what the heck is going on at the co-ed basic programs of Fort Jackson and Fort Leonard Wood."
The news from Afghanistan and Army training centers is a deadly serious warning as we gird for long-term combat against terrorists and their state sponsors: Our troops may not have what it takes to survive and win on the battlefield.
Our generals must bite the bullet and insist the kinder gentler standards that have castrated the conventional Army during the last decade be rooted out. Training must be returned to the reality-based standard that used to prepare our grunts to make it through the crucible of combat -- or we'll continue to fail when and where it counts.
The Brits won't always be around to pull us up the hill.
Return To Top April 8, 2002
April 7, 2002
Military Operation Yields Eight Days Without Suicide Bombers
The DRC remains deeply troubled
An Opposing Analysis Of the "Smoking Gun" April 6
US-Israeli joint team hunting Al Qa'ida fighters in the West Bank April 6
Two Notes on Afghanistan from Johann Price April 4
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril April 2
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
Military Operation Yields Eight Days Without Suicide Bombers
From DebkaFile
7 April: In the coming week, the protagonists in the current Middle East crisis will race against time to bring matters to a head before US secretary of state Colin Powell arrives on his new mission on behalf of President George W. Bush. The Israelis, the Palestinians, Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Hizballah, will all try to establish their mastery of the situation. Israel will do its best to stay in step with Washington, while all the other parties do what they can to defeat US goals and Powell's mission.
The events in store in the days to come fall under four headings:
A. The war activity on two primary fronts: West Bank cities and the Israel-Lebanese frontier;
B. The campaign of terror pursued by the Palestinians and their Arab allies, principally the Hizballah and al Qaeda;
C. The undercover war waged around the Middle East
D. The slide towards a comprehensive regional eruption
IDF Counter-Terror Operation Chokes off Palestinian Terror - For the Moment
Israel's tanks, infantry, special forces and air units have in ten days retaken the West Bank and gained control of major portions of its seven main towns: Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Ramallah, Bethlehem and Hebron. The Palestinian Authority has virtually buckled as a ruling entity, while its security organs' command centers, communications, logistics and supply systems have been disabled.
The Palestinian terrorist mechanisms - the Fatah-Tanzim, the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the Hamas and Jihad Islami - are seriously impaired; scores of senior terror commanders have been killed and 2000 terrorists and their officers captured. The logistics and manufacturing facilities that turned out and distributed hundreds of suicide bomb belts and booby-trapped vehicles, mortars and rockets, have been wiped out, as have the Palestinian presses that turned out many millions of counterfeit US dollars and Israeli shekels for funding terror operations.
Above all, Israel has isolated Yasser Arafat, locking him away with some of his key security and terror chiefs in his narrow private quarters in Ramallah. This command structure is therefore cut off from its lines of communication with the terrorist and military units on the ground.
The initial result is dramatic: eight consecutive days without terrorist attacks, after a month of daily suicide bombings - though this is not for want of trying. The last time the terrorists struck was Sunday, March 31, when a suicide bomber blew up an Israeli Arab restaurant in Haifa and a second destroyed the Efrat first aid station south of Bethlehem.
But it is not over yet. Data gathered by DEBKAfile's military sources show that Arafat anticipated the crippling effect Israel's counter-offensive would have on his suicide campaign. He made standby arrangements that he can activate notwithstanding Israel's military presence in all the West Bank cities.
His determination to do so was stiffened by the words he heard from President Bush Saturday, April 6, at his joint news conference with British prime minister Tony Blair. The president accused Arafat of failing in leadership, not performing and never living up to the promises he made in Oslo. Bush added he expects Israel to quit Palestinian cities "without delay", following which Ariel Sharon called the president to assure him Israel means to complete its operation as quickly as possible. However, Powell made it clear he has no plans to call on the Palestinian leader in the course of his mission.
Arafat will now go all-out to prove to Bush, as well as to the Israelis, that he cannot be pushed aside.
His tools for achieving this were assembled in good time.
Israeli military intelligence, the CIA and other Israeli and US counter-terrorism agencies have discovered, according to DEBKAfile's military sources, that the six major terrorist attacks rocking Israeli Mediterranean coastal cities in March (Tel Aviv, Haifa, Netanya and Ashdod) had a hidden purpose, besides killing a large number of Israelis. They diverted attention from the rubber dinghies dropping al Qaeda and Hizballah terror squads, interspersed with Palestinians, along Israeli beaches.
The discovery was confirmed in the final reports of the investigations into the two last Netanya attacks: the assault at the Jeremy Hotel on March 9 and the Passover Seder massacre at the seaside resort's Park Hotel, 18 days later.
After both attacks, black dinghies were found buried on the sandy beach, prompting wide-scale searches up and down the Israeli coast from Rosh Hanikra in the north to Ashkelon in the south.
Ten dinghies turned up in at least three locations: five in Netanya; the rest in nearby Michmoret and Caesarea. Each dinghy can carry eight to 10 commandos with their weapons and gear. Tracks in the sand showed that each toted a heavy pack weighing 40 to 70 kilos (90 to 155 lb), suggesting large explosive charges or heavy weapons, such as missiles.
The last landing appears to have taken place under cover of the suicide attack on the Allenby Street café in Tel Aviv Saturday night, March 30.
For most of Sunday, March 31, Israeli security forces closed the old Tel Aviv-Haifa highway along a 70-mile (110-km) stretch - from the Petach Tikva junction just north of Tel Aviv to the southern entrances of Haifa. The public notice to frustrated motorists and commuters explained the measure as due to the incursion of Palestinian suicide bombers from the West Bank. The al Qaeda-Hizballah infiltration from the opposite direction, the Mediterranean, was not released.
Intelligence agencies and Israeli troops operating in Palestinian areas this week are actively seeking these intruders before they can be activated.
In West Bank, Israel Tests New Methods and Weapons Systems for
Capturing Arab Towns
Israel's counter-terror operation in the West Bank is on a scale that the Middle East has not seen for many years. An extended division has been fielded - roughly equal to two regular Western divisions. The massive deployment of tank and armored infantry units under the cover of warplanes also turns out to be a large-scale experiment in sophisticated combat means for rapidly capturing Arab cities. DEBKAfile 's military sources disclose that US special force observers were almost certainly present in some of the battle arenas. Lessons drawn from the US-led Afghanistan War appear to be undergoing tests in practice, together with advanced weapons systems developed especially for incursions into densely populated urban areas.
The differences between the two conflicts are also manifest. Whereas the Taliban and al Qaeda effected tactical withdrawals in the manner of organized armies, the Palestinian forces are falling apart. The Israeli army is therefore confronted with piecemeal combat against small bands of terrorists, a complicated and unpredictable challenge for regular combatants.
In the post-1993 Oslo period, the IDF was often described as past its peak. This week, barring a few initial slip-ups, the reserve units, which are the backbone of the IDF, proved themselves capable of deploying at high speed and functioning effectively in battle.
The call-up turnout was above 96 percent in most units - much higher than forecast; it took the new intake less than 24 hours to receive instruction, collect equipment and join their units, although many had not seen the inside of an army base for years. Morale was unexpectedly high - even among the many over-40s called away from families, jobs and businesses, with little advance warning. In short order, the units began operating smoothly.
This has been an eye-opener with profound socio-political implications. The typical 35-45 year-old Israeli city-dweller is often dismissed as a fairly self-absorbed, anti-social axe-grinder. The military operation to root out Palestinian terror has brought forth an unsuspected body of men eager to fight for what they regard as the defense of their homes.
Syria and Iran-Backed Hizballah Open Second Front
Syrian units, Hizballah and other terror bases in Lebanon may very soon expect to find themselves in Israel's firing line.
One of Israel's primary targets will be the 20,000-strong Syrian occupation army in Lebanon; another, the 8,000 to 10,000 Hizballah guerrillas - Iran's proxy terror legion, and a third, units of the Iranian Pazdaran, the Revolutionary Guards, among them some 300 military commanders and instructors attached to the Shiite group.
In recent weeks, Tehran has shipped to the Hizballah more than 8,000 new missiles and rockets of various types. Aided by Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen, the Shiite group has lined them up in central and southern Lebanon, ready to hit targets as far south as the outskirts of the central Israeli town of Hadera.
Israel will first and foremost de-activate the Syrian bases in Lebanon - especially the installations in the eastern Beqaa Valley - and smash Hizballah missile and Katyusha rocket bases that target Israel regularly from southern and central Lebanon. The attacking force will also take the opportunity of wiping out Hizballah and Iranian military bases in the Beqaa Valley.
Another potential target is the headquarters, docks and landing strips of Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, a hardline group controlled by Syrian military intelligence. Israeli forces will also seek out Palestinian camps in south Lebanon that, according to US and Israeli intelligence, harbor al Qaeda fighters.
DEBKAfile's military sources expect Israel, in the first instance, to emulate the American war model in Afghanistan, and employ crushing might. Syrian targets will be subjected to an aerial blitz and Lebanon will for the first time experience a surface-surface missile assault, as well as artillery and ship-launched missile barrages.
Different tactics will be employed just across the border in south Lebanon. There, large armored columns and mobile artillery will cross in to destroy Hizballah rocket emplacements.
On the diplomatic front, Sharon made sure of White House approval before finalizing his war plan for the Hizballah and its patrons, just as he did with his campaign against Palestinian terrorist strongholds. DEBKAfile's military sources say the prime minister got the green light last week, whereupon the army began calling up reservists and concentrating large-scale forces on the Lebanese border and the Golan Heights, which is divided between Syria and Israel.
DEBKAfile's military sources point out that the showdown between Syria and Israel began on March 12, when Israeli intelligence discovered that the large-scale terror strike on the Matsuba-Kabri highway in Galilee, in which 7 Israelis died, was masterminded by Syrian military intelligence fielding a combined Jibril-Hizballah-al Qaeda team.
Twelve days later, on March 24, a mysterious series of explosions destroyed Syria's subterranean missile and chemical weapons installation in Homs. The facility produced Scud C and Scud D missiles, liquid and solid fuels, and was the largest factory in the Arab world for chemical warheads.
North Korean missiles experts were among the roughly 100 engineers and technicians killed in the blast
DEBKAfile 's military sources report that Syria suspects an Israeli commando unit sabotaged the plant in revenge for the Galilee highway terror attack. Another theory is that it was the work of American special forces units based on a US Sixth Fleet Mediterranean carrier, carried out to punish Syrian president Bashar Assad for affording al Qaeda operatives free transit through Syria.
Whoever did the job, it struck a central nerve in Damascus. Syria is left facing a potential war minus the bulk of its missile stocks and without the fuel for launching the remainder. A key strategic resource has been wiped out.
At the same time, since August 2001, Syria and Iraq have been bound by secret military pacts, as DEBKAfile revealed two months after they were signed. Those pacts assure the signatories of mutual assistance if the other comes under attack.
Therefore a potential military clash between Israel and Syria in Lebanon, and possible strikes against strategic targets inside Syria. may well bring about Iraqi intervention.
This eventuality obliges the Bush administration to think hard about bringing forward its strike against Iraq.
Return To Top April 7, 2002
The DRC remains deeply troubled
by "NJV", forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
While the main players of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ended a new round of negotiations in Lusaka aimed at establishing the withdrawal of all foreign troops from DRC soil and to find a solution for the yearlong conflict, continued fighting has increased in intensity in the Kivu region over the last 14 days. The Kivu region borders on Rwanda, Burundi and Lake Tanganyika and is seen as the treasure chest of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC could be one of the richest countries in the world with virtually every mineral on the chart in its soil. The Kivu region is especially rich in gold, coltan and diamonds. However this region is currently in the hands of the rebels and their sponsors, who are very willing to transport these minerals back to their own countries. Furthermore this region is of strategic value to Rwanda and Burundi as this area is seen as the buffer zone for both countries to counter rebel insurgencies crossing their own borders.
However it seems that this last round of talks faced several problems mainly related to the situation in the Kivu region and didn't succeed if finding solutions for the continuing impasse. Over the last couple of weeks fighting has once again erupted in the Kivu region under the banner of a new revolution orchestrated by the FRF or Federal Republican Forces. The FRF is an anti-Rwanda political movement, mainly backed by the "Banyamulenge",Congolese of Tutsi origin, who bankroll the new rebellion. Currently the FRF is also trying to integrate the MAYI-MAYI, a pro-Kinshasa tribal militia which is opposed to the foreign occupation of the east of DRCongo. The Mayi-Mayi are originally a warrior tribe and have been creating havoc in the DRC for the last 10 years with several leaders in Kinshasa having used them in the past conflicts. If the FRF/Banyamulenge and the Mayi-Mayi join forces in the Kivu region, then Rwanda and the rebel movement it supports will have another powerful and aggressive enemy to take into account.
The FRF is effectively the 'new kid on the block' with not much information being available on this addition to the conflict in the DRC. According to MONUC or United Nations Mission Congo, Rwanda sent some 1100 troops in to further reinforce the area in response. President Kagame of Rwanda stated after returning home from Lusaka that the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from the DRC is directly connected to the security of Rwanda. He said that Rwanda would not pull its forces out of the DRC until the ex-FAR or Rwandan Armed Forces and the extremist Hutu Interahamwe militia have been disarmed, demobilized and reintegrated and importantly, the security of Rwanda is guaranteed.
This makes it unlikely that Rwanda will pull out of the DRC in the near future and could lead to an increase in the violence, especially in Kivu where anti-Rwandan sentiment is increasing every day. President Kagame also stated that if Rwandan troops are attacked on DRC soil the reaction of the Rwandan forces will be 'decisive' even if this resulted in a never ending cycle of violence in that area and left the natural resources under control of rebels and the occupying countries. The main question that arises is do Rwanda and Uganda actually want to pull out of the DRC? President Kagame is using National security as a condition to remain in the DRC. According to Kagame, Rwanda invaded the DRC to protect its own borders but is controlling, for the moment anyway, an area in the DRC that is larger than its own national territory.
The mineral resources in the DRC and especially the Coltan in the Kivu region are an even better reason to remain on DRC soil since technological advances and increased global consumption, especially of high-tech manufactured goods, has turned coltan into one of the most sought after raw materials. Its uses vary from cell phones, computers, game consoles, and camcorders to pharmaceuticals, chemicals and automotive industries. In a recently published UN sponsored report on the illegal exploitation of the DRC's natural resources and other forms of wealth, it was estimated that up to 100 tons a month of tantalum was illegally exported by the Rwandan army. Likewise, Ugandan exports of the mineral rose from 2.5 tons in 1997 just before the war, to nearly 70 tons in 1999. In the past Uganda and Rwanda, who are both in the opposition camp and opposing the DRC Government have been fighting over the control of several mines in the region. This clearly points out that besides a security interest the financial interests in the region are of great importance to the occupying countries.
Large areas remain under rebel control
The forces of RCD-ML or Congolese Rally for Democracy - Liberation Movement have withdrawn at least 80 km from Rungu (1,700 km northeast of Kinshasa, DRCongo). Led by Mbusa Nyamwisi and supported by Uganda, the RCD-ML also known as RCD-Bunia, has partially withdrawn to Dungu, preferring not to engage with the troops of MLC or Congolese Liberation Movement of Jean-Pierre Bemba - former ally of Uganda and now supported by the RPA or Rwandan Patriotic Army, which have returned in force to MLC controlled Rungu.The RCD-ML is a breakaway group of the MLC, when Jean Pierre Bemba the leader of the MLC changed allegiance from Uganda to Rwanda, Mbusa Nyamwisi seized the opportunity to create his own opposing rebel group.
The security situation in the Kivu region is likely to remain tense and more clashes between the Banyamulenge/Mayi-Mayi and the Rwandan backed rebels are expected. The reinforcements sent in by Kagame suggest that Rwanda isn't likely to easily give up the control of the resource rich area they now control. While those areas firmly under DRC control remain relatively calm, the Government is expected to shift more of its forces to Kivu and together with the continuing political impasse a deterioration in the security situation can be expected.
Regional background: by Katrina Bennett
A major regional war broke out in the Democratic Republic of Congo on 2nd August 1998 and involved seven countries as combatants and at least a further five as would be mediators. This followed hard upon the regional alliance of Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola and Eritrea which successfully managed to undermined the long time leader of Zaire, General Mobutu during 1996-97 and in particular once his regime had been abandoned by the United States. Mobutu was finally replaced by Laurent Desire Kabila in May 1997.
However this second war quickly wrecked any hopes of an African renaissance. The alliances formed six years ago broke apart and the rebel forces, comprising Congolese soldiers, Congolese Tutsi Banyamulenge, Rwandan, Ugandan and some Burundian government troops accused Kabila of being a dictator and of deliberately increasing regional instability by his open support for the insurgent groups opposed to the governments of his former allies, including the Rwandan 'génocidaires'. Kabila had to rely on support from Angolan, Zimbabwean and Namibian troops acting in the name of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to hold off the rebel threat to his Government and indeed Kabila later accused both Rwanda and Uganda of aggression and "foreign adventurism" on Congolese territory and of trying to seize the DRC's natural resources.
Attempts at further mediation broke down on every occasion, leaving the Kabila regime with few real friends and very little actual authority. The future of the DRC is still bedevilled by being inseparably interlinked with the internal problems facing the other countries involved, while Kabila appears more concerned with developing a personality cult than seriously addressing the ethnic and economic problems that beset his country. The Banyamulenge, who initiated the war with Rwanda and Uganda, have become even less acceptable to other Congolese than ever before and inter-tribal violence is constantly threatening to engulf the region.
The region remains dominated by conflicts; the Rwanda Government and members of the FAR and Interahamwe,the Ugandan insurgency along the border with Sudan, Burundi regime and the FDD rebels, continuing instability in Congo-Brazzaville and the threat of a major upheaval in Zimbabwe following Mugabes hi-jacking of the recent general election. Kabila's attempts to keep his enemies at bay by supporting various rebel groups has only succeeded in creating more conflict and lessening any serious chance of successful negotiations. During his five years in power Laurent Kabila has ruthlessly violated human rights, his security forces are guilty of killing, torturing, imprisoning, and causing the "disappearance" of anyone, whether political opponents, human rights activists or journalists thought to provide any threat to the DRC regime. In this however Kabila is little different from his predecessor Mobutu or the leaders of many neighbouring countries, such as Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe.
The nations of Central Africa have been used by the international community for their proxy-wars for decades, Britain, the USA, France, Russia, Cuba, South Africa, Portugal and Belgium have all been guilty of actions that have caused widespread death and destruction in the area. They are also with few notable exceptions guilty of abandoning the region to poverty, disease and conflict. However, the actions of African Governments, ethnic groupings and individual leaders have compounded this tragedy and the outlook is bleak for those that believed in a post-colonial era of economic growth and increasing co-operation.
Return To Top April 7, 2002
April 6, 2002
An Opposing Analysis Of the "Smoking Gun"
The battle for the mind of George W. Bush
US-Israeli joint team hunting Al Qa'ida fighters in the West Bank
Two Notes on Afghanistan from Johann Price April 4
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril April 2
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike April 1
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
An Opposing Analysis Of the "Smoking Gun"
From reader Ethan Clauset:
…here's an opposing analysis of the 'smoking gun' that is being claimed links arafat directly to terror... admittedly electronicintifada.net will have the opposite biases as debka.com, but it seems suspicious that this one document would turn up. on the other hand I don't doubt that Arafat does have his hand in terror operations.. I just doubt there will be a paper trail.
By Ali Abunimah, Nigel Parry, and Laurie King-Irani
A special report from The Electronic Intifada, 4 April 2002.
"The big question at this hour: Do new documents point the finger at Arafat? Israel says it has found a smoking gun directly linking Yasser Arafat's office to the suicide attacks, but Palestinian officials say it is only another Israeli fabrication."
-- Paula Zahn, American Morning on CNN, 7:02 AM ET, 3 April 2002.
The so-called "smoking gun"
Facing mounting international criticism of its deadly rampage in the Occupied Territories [See the "Israel's war of terror" sidebar on the right], Israel has launched a desperate misinformation campaign to try to link Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat with suicide bombings against Israeli civilians.
Yesterday, in a desperate attempt to justify Israel's bizarre siege of President Yasser Arafat in the Ramallah Muqata'a (fig. District Headquarters), Israel has distributed what it claims are confiscated Palestinian documents, one of which allegedly demonstrates a direct link between the Palestinian Authority and suicide bomb attacks against Israeli civilians condicted by the Palestinian militant group, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade (AAMB).
For the story, please click The Electronic Intifada
Return To Top April 6, 2002
The battle for the mind of George W. Bush
By our colleague Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
In the ongoing war for Bush's ear, the pro-Israeli lobby appears to have gained the upper hand with the consequent growth of a very negative attitude towards the Arab nations and all things Islamic. The obvious collusion between Washington and Jerusalem on both the timing and the scope of the present military operations in the occupied territories leaves little doubt in the minds of many Arab leaders as to just where US sympathies rest at present. The rumbling of discontent in the Arab world, the growing rapprochement between previous dire enemies and the threat of disruption to the oil supply should be taken seriously in The Whitehouse. Despite traditional Arab disunity, the pressure that the US and Israel are exerting on the Muslim world may cause an unexpected and unwelcome backlash.
The Israeli offensive already deemed by many to be a sledgehammer used to crack a nut, has seen its overwhelming military advantage deployed against Palestinian para-militaries who have so far largely used only light infantry weapons in defence of the crowded and dilapidated towns, cities and refugee camps of the West bank. Israel's heavy handed and arrogant use of force has certainly damaged the ability of the terrorist groups to carry out a suicide bombing campaign in the short term, however they have successfully traumatized and alienated yet another generation of Palestinians thus creating potentially greater risks for the future.
Washington watched and waited until the Israelis had apparently achieved most of what can be expected from this operation
before President Bush was willing to call for a withdrawal from the occupied territories. However, it is highly unlikely that 'effective' pressure will be exerted by Washington until Sharon, the Israeli General Staff and Intelligence services conclude that Arafats control over the security services has been undermined along with sufficient widespread destruction of the Hamas and Islamic Jehad terrorist infrastructure has been achieved. An additional aspect to the timing of any Israeli withdrawal will be the effectiveness of those Delta Force and CIA officers believed to be operating in joint US-Israeli covert action teams against the Hezbollah-Al Qa'ida terrorists fighting alongside the Palestinians.
Washington's real interests damaged by pro-Israeli stance?
Suggestions that thousands of US service personnel are being readied to deploy to the West Bank to implement a possible peace agreement which would only be signed under the greatest duress by Yasser Arafat will further distant US policy from Middle East reality. However the planners in the Pentagon are well aware of the legitimacy the involvement of US forces would give to any widescale Israeli invasion of the Lebanon to destroy the Iranian backed Hezbollah-Al Qa'ida terrorist base network situated in the Beka'a Valley and which is heavily protected by the Syrian armed forces.
Washington has grown openly impatient with continued Arab vacillation both on the issue of Palestine and the overall war on terrorism. Dismissing Islamic sensibilities comes easily to an Administration so heavily influenced by Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and the military-industrial-energy lobby. Dissension, disunity and military weakness amongst the Arab nations makes it all too easy to lose sight of the inherent dangers of ignoring the overall interests of Muslim world.
The United States and its closest allies would be unwise indeed to lose touch with perhaps 1billion Muslims spread across more than half the world and controlling a huge slice of the remaining oil reserves, natural gas and other important resources. However much sympathy the West naturally has for Israel and well deserved guilt over the holocaust, it cannot afford to go on damaging its long term relations with the Muslim world or its economic interests in this way.
Return To Top April 6, 2002
US-Israeli joint team hunting Al Qa'ida fighters in the West Bank
From Marcus Cohen & Major Frank P. Hayes via our friends at AFI Research.
A joint Israeli Special Forces, US Delta Force and CIA Covert Action Team have been secretly searching the areas of the West Bank occupied by the Israeli Army in recent days. Their targets include a number of senior Al Qa'ida and Hezbollah commanders smuggled into Palestinian territory along with several dozen seasoned fighters. Their task is to kill those that cannot be captured and to eliminate the growing threat to Israel's military control. There have been a number of successful attacks recently on Israeli Armoured and Infantry units and these are believed to be the work of an Al Qa'ida combat team. Israel is understood to be distinctly unwilling to scale down the present campaign until both this Al Qa'ida-Hezbollah threat has been totally removed and Arafats security infrastructure severely damaged.
Return To Top April 6, 2002
April 5, 2002
US and Israeli Special Forces Try to Head Off Arafat's Next Terror Offensive
Ex-Taliban fighters in Kabul's new army
Two Notes on Afghanistan from Johann Price April 4, 2002
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril April 2
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike April 1
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
US and Israeli Special Forces Try to Head Off Arafat's Next Terror Offensive
Excerpts from DebkaFile. Our colleague Richard M. Bennett of AFI research alerted us to the presence of US special forces in the area three days ago
Four men are now in Israel's sights. Two - Yasser Arafat and Palestinian intelligence chief Tawfik Tirawi - are under siege in Ramallah.
The other two - Fatah-Tanzim militia chief Marwan Barghouti and Rashid Abu Shbak, deputy to Gaza preventative security chief Mohammed Dahlan - are running for their lives with Israeli intelligence services on their heels.
A senior Israeli security source, asking to remain anonymous, told the Washington Post that Israel's biggest mistake in the past 18 months of the Intifada was to show too much respect for the Palestinian Authority's top executives. They were awarded VIP passes, weapons, their entrée to the White House, money, territory, an airport, a seaport, health services and jobs.
Dahlan is the equal of any of the other four terror chiefs. DEBKAfilewas again the first publication to take a close look at the Gaza security chief's exploits in the long months of the Palestinian confrontation. An innovator, with a good scientific brain - if terrorism can be termed a science - it was Dahlan who first applied cellular telephones to triggering car bombs and explosive devices. He created the Palestinian "military industries", that manufacture mortars and rockets. Most recently, Dahlan orchestrated the bomb-blasts that destroyed two Merkava-3 tanks.
All the same, not he but his deputy, Abu Shbak is the object of Israeli pursuit.
The Gaza terror executive has drawn an immunity card against a promise to the Americans and Israelis to kept the Gaza Strip calm as long as battles rage in the West Bank.
Overnight, bombings, infiltrations and shooting attacks have tapered off in the territory he controls. An unseen hand has miraculously silenced every rifle barrel and explosive. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have melted into the background, and talk of dialogue with their leaders instead of Arafat's Fatah has dried up.
Dahlan believes that after the Israeli army cleanses the West Bank of terrorists, his big chance will come to take over that territory too. He has promised that he will bring tranquility there, like the Gaza Strip.
To make sure the war situation does not zoom out of control, Washington has posted two very senior officers in the Israel-Palestinian arena: CIA chief George Tenet has been shuttling between Israel and other Middle East capitals, while former Marine Corps general Anthony Zinni remains in place even after he failed to secure a ceasefire.
Furthermore, DEBKAfile reports that members of American special forces units have been spotted in undercover action for the first time. Sporting US special forces combat gear and weapons, they were seen moving against suspected terrorists during the battle around the monasteries and churches of Bethlehem on Wednesday, April 2.
When the moment came to extricate US and European citizens - some held hostage by Palestinian militants - US armored cars drove up through the streets of Bethlehem and well-armed American "security men" came to pick them up. Israel tanks, helicopters and drones provided cover for the five-hour operation to rescue all the foreign civilians stranded or held hostage in Bethlehem.
That was not their primary mission. DEBKAfile's military sources report that the US commando contingent is present for an undercover assignment that could determine the outcome of the entire Israeli military operation to root out the terrorist menace. Even Barghouti, Tirawi and Abu Shbak are secondary targets, belonging to the past. A new threat is posed by the foreign crack force Arafat has been able to smuggle into the country from Lebanon. It is made up of highly-trained fighters - Palestinian, Hizballah and al Qaeda. This group has been designated the special target of the US contingent.
This seek-and- destroy mission is underway in deep secrecy. But when it is over, Arafat's latest threat will be exposed as having posed one of the most decisive confrontations of the global war against terror. US and Israeli commandos are now focusing all their strength on the effort to catch the infiltrators before they can do their worst.
President Bush, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, Arafat and Middle Eastern leaders have all suspended their next moves pending the outcome of this clash. Bush, Powell and Rumsfeld are defending the combined operation against critics the world over - some inside Israel too - so as to give Sharon and the US contingent the time it needs to complete its mission.
Return To Top April 5, 2002
Ex-Taliban fighters in Kabul's new army
Extracts fron an article by
Carey Schofield, forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay.
THE first battalion of the new Afghan army, merging former Taliban and
Northern Alliance fighters, will pass out today after six weeks of training
by British paratroopers.
The 1st Bn, the Afghan National Guard - First BANG as it is known - will
move into the presidential palace as the Presidential Guard, allowing B
Company of 2 Bn, the Parachute Regiment to return to their barracks in
Colchester after what Major Lee Drakeley admits has been a difficult if
rewarding task.
Soldiers of the new Afghan army during their graduation ceremony
The British paratroopers have been the lead element of the multinational
Short Term Training Team training the 600 Afghan soldiers in a former
barracks on the Jalalabad road east of Kabul.
Each province was asked to send men to BANG. But Major Drakeley said some
appeared to have used the opportunity to get rid of their village idiots.
It was the men who simply turned up as volunteers who have been the best
trainees. Some were complete novices, others seasoned fighters, and some
even former Taliban.
So long as they had some aptitude and were prepared to submit to discipline,
the First BANG took them and trained them to a basic infantry battalion
standard. Each platoon was carefully balanced to include representatives
from across the country's ethnic barriers, making men who might otherwise be
natural enemies close comrades.
Discipline was strictly enforced, although the drill sergeant's traditional
demand to know what "that 'orrible man is doing on my parade square?" must
have been tested to the extreme at times.
There were difficulties enforcing Western-style standards of hygiene and one
man had to be discharged for defecating on the parade ground. But, equally,
providing the water the men need for ritual washing was not easy. An
observant Muslim prays five times a day, using three litres each time he
does so.
Now that the British have trained the First BANG, America is to launch a
much larger programme to train all the new Afghan army. The Afghan Defence
Ministry wants an army of about 200,000, but ISAF officers believe that more
than 50,000 would be unsustainable.
Return To Top April 5, 2002
April 4, 2002
Israel's Extensive Military Crackdown Produces Mixed Results
Mideast headlines from DebkaFile
Two Notes on Afghanistan from Johann Price
Israel takes off its mask of democracy April 3
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril April 2
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike April 1
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral March 30
Israel's extensive military crack down produces mixed results
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett and AFI sources in Israel and the West Bank.
Israel's developing military campaign against the occupied territories is closely following a well thought out and classic urban warfare plan. Border Guard units sealed the frontiers with both Jordan and Egypt, aided deliberately or at least conveniently by those countries decision to close their borders to Palestinian refugees. The heavily reinforced rapid reaction Mechanized Infantry units placed under the control of the Central Command with its headquarters at Neva Yaacout, the Ist 'Golani' Mechanized Brigade, 17th 'Givaty' Mechanized Brigade and 'Nahal' Mechanized Brigade along with the specialist COIN (Counter Insurgency)Harouv Mechanized, Shimshon Mechanized, Rimon Mechanized, Ducifhat Mechanized and Nachson Mechanized Infantry Battalions, Special Force and Intelligence units have conducted a rolling occupation of all the major Arab Cities in the West Bank.
Starting with the reduction of Arafats headquarters complex in Ramallah, Jenin, Bethlehem, Qalqilya, Tulkarm and now Nablus have been first surrounded, then seen company sized Infantry assault formations with heavily armoured personnel carriers, supported by large numbers of Tanks from the 7th elite Armoured Brigade and 500th elite Armoured Brigade and armed Helicopters, conduct street and house clearing operations to flush out suspected Islamic terrorists into either trying to flee the towns to be caught by the surrounding cordon of Israeli units or cornered into making a stand with the prospect of either death or surrender as the outcome.
Israel trys to prevent news coverage of its campaign
In order to intimidate the civilian Palestinian population into non-resistance highly aggressive and destructive tactics have been adopted; noise, speed and violence are the main tactics of the Israeli assault teams. Tanks deliberately crush private cars parked along the streets, heavy fire is directed at any doorway or window perceived to hide a threat and grab-teams smash in the doors to private dwellings, destroying property and possessions and generally terrorizing the occupants. Water and electricity supplies have been severed, while the telephone system has been disabled and mobile phone signals blocked, except where Israeli electronic warfare specialists wish to monitor Palestinian communications as part of a blanket SIGINT surveillance program in the occupied areas. Aggressive and humiliating interrogation techniques are used and large numbers of males between the ages of 14 and 60 have been taken to holding facilities. Palestinian radio, TV and newspapers have been closed down or disrupted and every possible action has been taken, including shooting at or the use of physical intimidation to prevent news coverage by international broadcasters and by journalists and photographers from the worlds press. All fairly standard urban warfare tactics and not restricted just to the Israeli Army.
The search for known terrorists and those exposed by Palestinian collaborators has been extensive, as has the hunt to find the large stocks of weapons known to be hidden in the West Bank. To the obvious annoyance of the Israeli Army and Security services many of the Hamas and Islamic Jehad fighters have slipped through their grasp and either succeeded in escaping the Israeli cordon or re-entered those areas already 'cleared' by the Army. Nor has the search for arms dumps been more than partly successful.
The growing tension along the northern border with the Lebanon has already resulted in Israeli air raids on suspected Hezbollah positions and the risk is ever present of this escalating into a full scale clash with the Iranian backed Terrorists and their Syrian protectors in the Beka'a Valley. This area has become even more dangerous with the presence of several thousand Al Qa'ida fighters who evacuated Afghanistan long before the US bombing campaign got under way and now adding their undoubted strength and expertise to Hezbollah units along Israel's border.
Israel stirs up a hornets nest
The Israeli Army has temporarily disrupted the Islamic terrorist bombing campaign and can probably inflict considerable damage if the campaign is allowed to continue for another two weeks or so. The damage done to the Palestinian authorities ability to control the security situation in its territories is possibly fatal and will make demands from the Governments in Jerusalem and Washington for Yasser Arafat or his successors to crack down on the militants virtually impossible to implement. This alone will result in Israel being forced to once again become the major instrument of 'law and order' in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip once that area has been subjected to the same form of military action, with all the consequential and possibly disastrous results for the United States relations with other Arab countries and any chance of maintaining a workable coalition against Iraq, Iran and Syria.
Unless the international outcry and the growing unrest in the Arab world against Israeli tactics and open American
support persuades Washington to once again try to pressure Sharon to accept that military action only creates a hundred new suicide bombers for every one killed in the present campaign and seek a just settlement with the Palestinians, President Bush may well be left with no alternative but to act unilaterally in any future action it takes the Middle East. However, the United States would be very unwise to appear to be taking on so much of the world in a fight, unilateralism can soon become isolation and even the worlds only superpower may well find that untenable in the long run.
The United States is in great danger of appearing openly anti-Muslim and leading a new Crusade against Islam. Even the inclusion of Turkey in US plans presents a problem as few in the Arab world would forget that they were only liberated from 800 years of Turkish rule in 1918 and even fewer would welcome the sight of Turkish troops once again in Baghdad or on any other Arab land. Opportunities for the use of Israel's massive military power are even fewer, unless Washington is seriously considering dumping its relations with the Muslim world and opt for open and very likely long-term Arab hostility as the price it must pay to defeat the 'axis of evil' once and for all.
Return To Top April 4, 2002
Headlines from DebkaFile
- Heavy Israeli Tank, Infantry and Engineering Forces
Drive Into Seventh Palestinian West Bank Town of
Nablus Wednesday Night
- Maj. (Res.) Moshe Gerestner, 29, from Rishon Lezion,
Was Killed in Israeli Advance into Jenin Wednesday Morning
- Israel Hits Back at Hizballah S. Lebanese Positions
with Aerial and Artillery Fire
- Egypt Severs Government-to-Government Relations with
Israel - Excepting Diplomatic Ties
- 19:15 IT Wednesday: Large-Scale Israeli Special Force
Units Massed in Bethlehem’s Manger Square
Around Church of Nativity
They Encircle 200 Tanzim-Dahaisha Terror Activists
Holed up Inside Holding Priests and Nuns Hostage
Latin Patriarch Claims They Were Given Sanctuary After
Laying Down Arms - But Shooting Continued Wednesday against
Besieging Israeli Troops
- Wednesday too, Israeli Forces Enter Rajoub’s
Command Center in Bitunya after Four-Day Siege,
Capture 12 Wanted Terrorists, Including Hamas Terror
Executive Selim Hijazi, Who Masterminded Jerusalem
Pizzeria Massacre, and Quantity of Weapons
- Abayat Clansmen Who Ruled Bethlehem Area Under
Command of Palestinian Security Chief Tirawi Flee to
Judean Desert Caves, Pursued by Israeli Troops
Return To Top April 4, 2002
Two Notes From Johann Price
Tragic as the events were, they demonstrated exactly why airpower has been so effective in Afghanistan:
From Strategypage.com
March 28, 2002; An analysis has confirmed that the December incident in which a US bomb killed three US soldiers and a number of Afghan allies was the result of an operator error of the GPS used to determine the target's location. The error is understandable, and would even be funny except that people were killed. An Air Force combat controller (forward observer) was on the front lines spotting targets. He used a Precision Lightweight GPS (which the troops call a "plugger") to calculate the target location. A few minutes before the deadly mistake, he used his PLGPS to determine the target's location in degrees, minutes, and seconds so it could be attacked by Navy F-18s. Then, he recalculated the position in "decimal fractions of a degree" which is the way that the Air Force wants it. The battery was low, so he replaced it, unaware that the PLGPS is programmed to calculate its own position when turned on. In a moment of confusion, he gave these coordinate (i.e., his own) to the B-52 bomber that dropped the fatal missile instead of the target coordinates. The Pentagon has said that this episode indicates that the troops need more training with their equipment before using it in combat, as the troops were not as familiar with the newly-issued gear as they should have been.--Stephen V Cole
Best story so far on how Special Forces with CIA liaisons and Afghan support defeated the Taleban. Nicely complements the story I sent you on the training accident.
The Washington Post.
Incidentally, ODA 555 [the team mentioned in the story - Editor] is part of B Company, 2nd Battalion, 5th Special Forces.
Return To Top April 4, 2002
April 3, 2002
Mideast headlines from DebkaFile
India Helps US With September 11 Intelligence
Israel takes off its mask of democracy
Uganda gets tough with rebels hiding in Sudan
Top al-Qaeda man in US custody
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril April 2
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike April 1
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral March 30
Return To Top April 3, 2002
Mideast Headlines from DebkaFile
- Three-Day Siege of Jibril Rajoub's Command Center in Bitunya
Almost Over Tuesday Night After 180 Barricaded Palestinians Turn
Themselves in to Israeli Forces
Fifteen Terrorists Still Hold Fast
- Two Suicide Attacks Thwarted Tuesday Night on West Bank-
Baq'a al Garbiyeh Border and Central Negev
- Palestinian Tanzim Militiamen Hold 10 Priests and Nuns
Hostage in Bethlehem's Santa Maria Church
- Israeli Tank and Infantry Force Goes Into Fifth West Bank Town of
Jenin Tuesday after Taking Control of Rest of Bethlehem,
Ramallah, Qalqilya and Tulkarm
- Israeli Air Force Bombards Hizballah Positions in S. Lebanon after Hizballah Fires at Israeli Troops in Shaaba Farms Sector
- Israeli Defense Forces Uncover Document
Linking Arafat Directly to Palestinian Multi-Casualty
Suicide Campaign against Israel
It Was Found in Ramallah - in Files of His Personal Accounting
Department at Palestinian Authority Government HQ
Document Is Dated September 16, 2001, Five Days After Suicide Attacks on
New York and Washington
Costs of Bombs, Bullets, Martyrs' Posters Are Meticulously
Itemized for Arafat's Approval and Books
- Number of Fatalities in Netanya Seder Massacre
Climbs to 25 with Three More Deaths Tuesday
Making It the Deadliest of All Palestinian Terror Attacks
- Ramallah Curfew Lifted for Daylight Hours Tuesday
Some Terrorists Begin Come Out of
Jibril's Besieged Command Center in Bitunya and
Surrender to Israeli Troops
Ceasefire Allows Evacuation of Combat Wounded from
Site Where 400 Wanted Men Battled From
Early Tuesday with Israeli Forces
- Casualty Toll Runs to Tens of Dead and
150 Or More Wounded
West Bank Security Chief Jibril's Men Expected to
Exit with Wounded - Jibril Is in Ramallah
- Israel Prepares Legislation to Enable Sanctions against
Palestinian Suicides' Families and Their Senders -
Sharon During Troop Inspection in Qalqilya Tuesday
- PM Views with Gravity Violations from Syrian-Lebanese Frontiers with Israel, Warns Damascus and Beirut
They are Not Immune to IDF Israeli Reprisal
- Egypt and Jordan Seal Borders to Palestinians - Including Leaders
- Second Palestinian Dies from Monday Night's
Shooting Incident on Maaleh Efraim-Cochav Hashachar Road
North of Ramallah
Responsibility Claimed by Unknown Jewish Group
Called "Tears of Widows and Orphans"
Tomer Mordecai, 19, from Tel Aviv, Is Policeman Killed
When He Stopped Terror Car from Reaching
Downtown Jerusalem Monday
Bush: "Suicide Bombing in Name of Religion
- Kissinger: If Suicide Terror Is Not Stopped,
It Will Spread Worldwide
- France Drafts Riot Police to Guard Jewish Synagogues and Centers
After String of Antisemitic Attacks
- ior American Intelligence Officers Are Positioned in Region
Closely Monitoring Development of Israel's Counter-Terror Offensive
Group is Led by CIA Director George Tenet
At 01:30 IT after Sunday Midnight,
Tenet and Envoy Zinni Called Secretly on Arafat in Ramallah
Return To Top April 3, 2002
India Helps US With September 11 Intelligence
Forwarded to us by Ram Narayanan
According to the Washington Times:
The Clinton administration shut down a 1995 investigation of Islamic charities,
concerned that a public probe would expose Saudi Arabia's suspected ties to a
global money-laundering operation that raised millions for anti-Israel
terrorists, federal officials told The Washington Times.
Accusations that the Saudi government used charities as front organizations to
fund international terrorism are long-standing, first surfacing 20 years ago
when U.S. intelligence officials warned Congress that the Saudis had taken over
the direct funding of terrorist groups such as Islamic Jihad and Hamas.
One former and three current federal law enforcement officials said the new
probe began after U.S. officials learned that intelligence agents in India had
wiretapped the telephone of a Pakistani charity funded by the Saudi government
and discovered the transfer of $100,000 to Mohamed Atta, one of the 19 al Qaeda
hijackers in the September 11 attacks.
That information helped U.S. officials identify the 19 hijackers, 15 of whom
were from Saudi Arabia, the officials said.
After the suicide strikes on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the
officials said Treasury's interagency task force was created to investigate ties
between charitable organizations in this country and international terrorist
groups.
That ongoing probe, according to the officials, has focused on accusations that
several tax-exempt and nonprofit charities operating from Virginia to Florida
have contributed millions of dollars to international groups that support
terrorism, including Islamic Jihad and Hamas.
See the full article below.
The Washington Times
Return To Top April 3, 2002
Israel takes off its mask of democracy
Forwarded by our friends at Richard Bennett Media and AFI Research, an article by Major Kamal Tahir
The United States for its own special set of reasons has now openly taken an anti-Islamic and Anti-Arab stance,it is no longer possible to square American attempts to portray its actions in the Middle East as even-handed or merely concerned with defeating terrorism. Vice-President Dick Cheney largely gave the game away when he clearly admitted that planned action to topple Saddam Husseins regime is mainly on Israel's behalf. It has little or nothing to do with any supposed Iraqi support for terrorist activity. The apparent decision by President Bush to finally come down on Israel's side after a wobble of indecision in recent weeks can be seen in the carte blanche given to Sharon to carry out a 'blitzkrieg' against the Palestinian people.
Little or no attempt is being made to keep up the pretence of the use of reciprocal force. Well over 300 Israelis have died at the hand of Palestinian terrorism in recent weeks. This must be weighed against the deaths of upwards of 100,000 Palestinians who have been killed by the Israelis since 1948, along with the destruction of the Palestinian state, the occupation of its lands, a 'diaspora' that has affected some 2.5 million Palestinian refugees for over 50 years, the illegal seizure of Arab property and land by Jewish settlers in direct and arrogant contravention of United Nation resolutions, the assassination of Palestinian leaders and the continued humiliation of an entire people.
Had this been the Serbs in Kosovo they would now rightly be accused of barbarism, ethnic cleansing and the tactics of a police state. President Bush would be leading an international movement to bomb the Serbian forces attacking Muslim Kosovan Albanians, however Israel has visited a different but just as unjust a regime of occupation and death on the Muslim Palestinians but with a very different response from Washington. Let us not forget that the State Department listed the Muslim Kosovan Albanian KLA as a terrorist organization with directly links to Osama Bin-Laden and the Al Qa'ida terrorist group, yet it retained US diplomatic, military and intelligence support against the Christian Serbs.
Sharon has President Bush hog-tied
The Jewish lobby is mighty powerful, but should this blind Washington to the rights of a Muslim people to both freedom and self-determination? Should the West deprive those Palestinians of the right to fight back against the overwhelming military power of the occupying army of a country that refuses to obey international law or UN resolutions? But which remains hypocritical enough to demand the implementation by force of UN resolutions against the Muslim state of Iraq. Humanity alone demands that the Palestinians must have the same right to nationhood as Israel demands for itself and remember how Israel was born, by acts of terrorism against the British in Palestine, the terrorist bombing of the King David Hotel, the massacre of innocent Arab civilians at Deir Yassin and later in the proxy-murder of hundreds of Palestinians in the refugee camps of Beirut in 1982. Despite Israel's claims to be a liberal democracy it is one of the few states to have proudly elected a known terrorist, Menachem Begin, as its Prime Minister.
There is an old Anglo-Saxon saying, those who live in glasshouses shouldn't throw stones and neither Israel with its record of human rights abuse or its main apologists in Washington and London have anything to be proud of in their treatment of the Muslim or the third world in general. It is time for the United Nations to finally have the courage to assert itself and seek the moral high ground to try and create a neutral zone to establish a dialogue, a solution and then provide an international force, even if largely drawn from Europe and the Indian sub-continent to enforce any internationally agreed treaty. If the United States is unwilling to be genuinely even-handed and just, then it is high time for them to take a back seat and let a less abrasive, threatening and militaristic force take over. The world can have no place for grandiose schemes for economic-military domination of the Middle East by a US-Israeli Crusade.
Return To Top April 3, 2002
Uganda gets tough with rebels hiding in Sudan
By our colleague Richard Bennett
The Ugandan Government claims that it has recently captured four of the main operational bases belonging to the rebel group known as the Lord's Resistance Army inside neighbouring Sudan. Ugandan Defence Minister Amama Mbabazi said that the camps. including the headquarters at Lala, situated about 160 kilometres (100 miles) north of the Ugandan border fell after an assault by units of the UPDF 4th 'Division'. No casualty figures have so far been released and no further information was forthcoming on whether there were significant numbers of rebels present at the camps when they were captured and the distinct possibility remains that many of the LRA rebels may have simply withdrawn into the surrounding countryside. Sudanese forces are also said to be on high alert in the southern region in an attempt to prevent the conflict spreading beyond the border regions.
Uganda says the operation is the first of a concerted attempt to rescue the huge numbers of women and children kidnapped by the LRA for use as slave labour. It also marks unprecedented co-operation between the governments of Uganda and Sudan. The military action has followed quickly after the signing of a security agreement earlier this month, whereby Sudan authorised Uganda to conduct hot pursuit operations against the rebels across its borders. Mr Mbabazi strongly hinted that the agreement between the two countries, which is due to run out on 2 April, may now be extended indefinitely after this initial success.
LRA may have abducted upto 20,000 young children
Ugandan forces now face the issue of attempting to free civilian captives from the LRA. Sources say there is a potential danger that LRA leader Joseph Kony may attempt to use the captives as a human shield to prevent Ugandan forces from capturing him and his fighters. The LRA has been fighting the Ugandan Government of President Yoweri Museveni for the past 16 years launch cross-border attacks into northern Uganda from bases inside Sudan and seeks to replace the constitution with the Bible's Ten Commandments.The background to The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) is highlighted by its savagery. The rebel group drawn largely from the Acholi tribe has also developed close links with Interahamwe and anti-RCD insurgents around the Bunia area and has a reputation for targeting international humanitarian convoys and local nongovernmental organization workers.
The LRA rebels, known for their brutality in killing, torturing, maiming, raping, and abducting large numbers of civilians, are thought to have seized up to 20,000 children with the boys being trained as soldiers and now believed to represent up to 80% of its total combat strength, while the girls are used as concubines and servants. The LRA habit of using young girls as sex slaves has led to many being sold, traded or even given as gifts by the LRA to arms dealers in Sudan and the Arab world. While some later escaped or were rescued, the whereabouts of many children remain unknown. At clandestine bases inside Sudan, the abducted children some as young as 7 or 8 years old have been terrorized into abject slavery. While in addition to being beaten, raped and worked until exhausted, young children are reported to have been forced to become involved in the brutal torture and killing of other children who had attempted to escape.
After years of distrust between Uganda and Sudan, mainly resulting from Khartoum's previous open support for terrorist groups, recent attempts to produce a joint campaign to defeat the LRA may have begun to produce at least limited results. This new spirit of co-operation came about following the changed stance of a Sudanese Government fearful of Washington's disapproval in the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks on the USA . However, the problem of tracing and rescuing thousands of missing and abused children will prove a monumental task even with the help of the international aid agencies.
Return To Top April 3, 2002
Top al-Qaeda man in US custody
By Chidanand Rajghatta in the Times of India.
Having failed to capture a single al-Qaeda terrorist or Taliban militant of consequence in its six-month old war against terrorism, the United States on Tuesday trumpeted the arrest of suspected Bin Laden lieutenant Abu Zubaidah, calling it a "very serious blow" to the terrorist network.
Zubaidah was captured in Faisalabad, Pakistan last Thursday in a joint operation between American and Pakistani intelligence and law-enforcement authorities. Despite protestations from Pakistan that US personnel were involved, including an outright denial by Pervez Musharraf, US officials leaked broad details of the involvement of FBI and CIA operatives in the capture. Zubaidah was reportedly shot three times while trying to escape but US officials said he is expected to survive. The officials suggested Zubaidah was the biggest catch so far, and his knowledge of al-Qaeda terrorist cells is more extensive than Osama Bin Laden's. He is expected to be flown to Guantanomo Bay, the island near Cuba where the US has lodged scores of terrorists.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer described Zubaidah as an "operational planner and key recruiter" for al-Qaeda and a member of Osama Bin Laden "inner circle" who could be a treasure-trove of inside information about the terrorist group."He will be interrogated about his knowledge of ongoing plans to conduct terrorist activities. This represents a very serious blow to al-Qaeda," Fleischer said.
Sketchy accounts of Zubaidah's role in the terrorist network say he was a key recruiter who channelled prospective candidates to various terrorist camps, oversaw funding of operations, and kept track of various cells across the world. He replaced Mohammed Atef as al-Qaeda "Chief Operating Office" after Atef was killed in the initial days of US bombing of terrorist hideouts. Only Bin Laden and his ideologue compatriot Ayman-al-Zawahiri ranked higher then Zubaidah, according to the intelligence community. A 31-year old Palestinian born in Saudi Arabia, Zubaidah is now being linked to almost every terrorist plot over the past decade, including the 9/11 mayhem. However, his name has acquired prominence only now. Despite the links now being touted, he was never named as a top terrorist and he did not even figure in the FBI's most wanted terrorist list.
Zubaidah's capture came after US intelligence operatives in Pakistan intercepted electronic communications that betrayed his coordinates and plans being hatched for further attacks on American interests. An elite American force then planned his capture, intimating their Pakistani counterparts only at the last moment, to forestall any leaks, according to accounts here.
Return To Top April 3, 2002
April 2, 2002
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril
From the NY Times: Pakistan Cooperating Fully With The US
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike April 1
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral March 30
Al-Qaeda forces regrouping in Afghanistan: Cheney March 29
On Palestinian M-72 LAWs: Letter from Kirril
Your editor was a mite grumpy after reading our correspondent Kirril’s letter (below). If DebkaFile meant RPGs they should say so. The Czechs and Russians produced M-72 copies as the RPG-18 and RPG-26. Nonetheless, he stands corrected. Read on.
From Kirril:
As you know I’m not the greatest fan of Debkafile. In fact I think when you first published their report I was the first to call attention to its shortcomings.
But the story about Palestinian weapons found in Mukata (Arafat’s compound) is true, most Israeli TV and radio news run it (as one of the articles) with pictures and video.
You can see some of the the photos on my site’s forum: waronline.org (scroll down there a little bit).
And a few more on IDF’s site.
It’s true that I haven’t seen any photos of M72s… But there were RPGs and plenty of missiles for RPGs, which is even worse.
Another letter - we don’t have permission to quote names - but a frontline perspective is always a useful lesson for us academic types:
M72s are abundant around here; the IDF has them and used them for
decades and has probably hundreds of thousands stored in warehouses.
The Palestinians have plenty as well, most of them stolen years ago,
during the time of "peace".
Old LAWs manufactured in the 60s are way beyond their shelf life today,
the IDF doesn't uses them anymore, we have newer M72A2 and A3 since the
80s. The old ones can still be fired, but are prone to malfunctions -
read "exploding in your face".
…when I was doing a tour in Gaza a while ago, a pal guerilla
tried to fire a LAW at our patrol jeep. Apparently, he had a very old one, because the rocket misfired and went
straight up in the air, like a little Apollo 13.
He was killed instantly by the jet blast. [Federation of American Scientists informs informs us the blast is at a temperature of 760 degrees centigrade. Editor]
The next morning Palestinians announced we've killed "an innocent
teenager". I don't know what his exact age was - we never did find his
head - but judging from his body complexion, I'd say he was defiantly
over 20, probably about 25.
We were just lucky that time, like I said - they have plenty of newer
ones that actually work... and even an old one could've fired like it
should as well.
Return To Top April 2, 2002
From the NY Times: Pakistan Cooperating Fully With The US
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, Excerpts, for the full article [PAKISTAN'S BOLD ALLIANCE: U.S. TIES HOLDING FIRM ] please see New York Times
The Pakistani government has demonstrated how firmly it is in the camp of
cooperation, most lately in allowing the F.B.I. and C.I.A. to conduct a raid
with Pakistani police here last week that rounded up more than 30 men with
suspected links to Al Qaeda. The raid also demonstrated how valuable that
cooperation can be: one of those apprehended, Abu Zubaydah, is suspected of
being a top lieutenant of Osama bin Laden.
Today, Pakistani officials said the men had been turned over to the United
States.
That action will surely bring some protest from nationalists and Islamists. But
defying predictions that there would be huge street protests like those that
roiled tribal areas in the days after the United States began bombing
Afghanistan, most protests have been moderate, suggesting that the Pakistani
leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has some political space to carry out his
pro-American, antiterrorism policies.
"In general, his policies of supporting the campaign against terrorism have not
been challenged, except by religious groups," said a senior Western diplomat.
The mainstream political parties "recognize he has handled the situation well,"
he said, "but there are limits to this support."
Perhaps recognizing those limits, General Musharraf has not given the Bush
administration everything it wants. On Saturday evening, he made that clear once
again.
In spite of pressure from Washington, he told a meeting of Pakistani newspaper
editors that he would not hand over Ahmed Omar Sheikh, the chief suspect in the
murder of the American journalist Daniel Pearl. Mr. Sheikh has been indicted in
the United States, which fervently wants his extradition. But the case is
sensitive to Pakistan.
Few countries have done as much for Washington in the war. Pakistan's
willingness to take on strident nationalists and Islamic extremists is in marked
contrast to Indonesia, for instance, also a Muslim country, but one whose
president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, would be most unlikely to ever permit the
F.B.I. to carry out a joint raid like the one here. Today, senior officials in
Indonesia were again quoted as saying they had no evidence that a radical
cleric, Abu Bakar Bashir, had been involved in terrorist activities, a
conclusion at odds with that reached by other countries in the region, notably
Singapore.
But the administration has been slow to deliver on promises of police
assistance, and has not removed duties and quotas on Pakistani textiles, a move
that would give a vital lift to the economy of this impoverished country.
Without some tangible benefits like those, there is a question of how long the
Musharraf government can continue to mobilize public opinion behind its
antiterrorism policies.
Washington has also at times taken actions that seem to undercut General
Musharraf. Ten days ago, for example, it ordered all dependents of embassy
employees to leave the country, out of concerns about security. "This is
certainly not a good sign," said the interior minister, Moinhuddin Haider. "If
everybody starts packing up and going home, it doesn't make a very good
impression," he added. "We have to show some courage."
[The article says the Pakistan has asked the US to computerize immigration at Pakistan’s 18 ports of entry. The US says it will take a year to do the job. Has President Bush’s word not gotten down to some echelons of the US Government? There is a war on, and the bureaucrats need to know that. In case they don’t know their own history, a couple of facts: America built 5200 merchant ships in the period 1941-45, increasing its shipbuilding capacity by 12 times. The Americans of two generations ago took sixty days or less to build a Liberty ship. Now their children and grandchildren tell us it will take a year to install a computer immigration system for 18 airports. What does it take for some people in America to wake up? Apparently September 11, 2001 wasn’t sufficient.]
Return To Top April 2, 2002
April 1, 2002
Mideast
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
Israel Calls Up 20,000 Reservists March 30
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral March 30
Al-Qaeda forces regrouping in Afghanistan: Cheney March 29
Avoid Turning Pakistan Into Another Iran March 29
Mideast
Below are the April 1 headlines from DebkaFile. Your editor is seriously concerned that an earlier report in Debka about huge caches of arms including M-72 LAW having been found in tunnels in Palestinian territory have not been confirmed by the mainstream American media. He can see no reason why the Israeli Government would hide the information if true. Readers have pointed out to us at analysis.orbat.com that Debka has a definite political agenda. One can, however, further one’s agenda by interpreting facts as one wants. No one should be making up facts. Your editor likes Debka and sincerely hopes that the information about M-72s is confirmed. For one thing he is intrigued as to where they might have come. If the information is not, however, confirmed, and if Debka does not correct itself, we will have to reconsider our use of this source. Which will be a great pity.
As before, if analysis.orbat.com has a position on the Mideast situation, it is to avoid having a position. We have friends on both sides; it seems to us there are going to be no winners in this battle. Everyone is going to lose. Insofar as Israel has more to lose than the Palestinians - simply because they so little to begin with - we fear for our Israeli friends. The Palestinian people, the ordinary people, are as much victims of the cynical Arab states and the brutally corrupt Arafat regime as they are of Prime Minister Sharon and the Israeli Army. Now a day has come when the Israeli people seem no longer to care about that - the only good Palestinian is a dead Palestinian. We fear for our Palestinian friends as well.
As for America: if your editor has any position as a resident of the United States who’s family came to America 42 years ago, it tends to be isolationist. Your editor would rather see America working on a Mars landing than hunting guerillas in the Philippines. Nonetheless, President Bush has given America the worst of all worlds in the Mideast - and your editor says this as one who is a great admirer of the Bushes, Senior and Junior. He has neither left the region alone, nor has he taken responsibility for his ally Israel. President Saddam Hussain is probably, right at this very moment, wondering which angel came from heaven to save him.
- Hizballah Open Light Weapon Fire Sunday Midnight on
Israeli Positions Guarding Western Sector of
Israel-Lebanese Frontier - Second Attack in Three Days
- Also Sunday Night, Israeli Tank and Ground Units
Reach Center of West Bank Town of Qalqilya
- Amid Exchanges of Fire
Town’s Electricity Cut Off
- In Address to Nation, Sharon Declares Israel Is at War,
Names Arafat as Terror Source and Leader, Enemy of
Israel and Free World and Threat to Regional Stability
- Earlier, Six Israelis Were Injured, One Critically,
When Palestinian Suicide Blew up First Aid Post at
Gush Etzion Town of Efrat Near Bethlehem - Where He was Employed
- Suicide Attack in Haifa “Matsa” Restaurant Sunday
Claims 16 Lives, Leaves 38 Injured, 5 Critically,
and Guts Restaurant
- Passover Terror Toll Soars to 47 Israelis Killed,
219 Injured in Six Outrages in Five Days
- Intense Secret Diplomatic Moves Are
Afoot Sunday for Arafat to Go Into Political Exile
- Moroccan King Muhammad VI Leads Contacts for
Arab Governments Alongside UN and European
Mid East Envoys Larsen and Moratinos
- Tanzim Chief Barghouti Believed Hiding in His
Home Village of Kobar, South of Ramallah
Israeli Forces Detain Locals For Questioning on
His Whereabouts
- Senior Security Sources:
To Complete Arafat’s Isolation, Israeli Troops Expected to Bring Senior Terror Activists out of His Office
Among them: Tawfiq Tirawi, Commander of Fatah’s
Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and Its Suicide Attacks
Soldiers Will Also Impound Documents
Return To Top April 1, 2002
Israeli intelligence targets friends and foes alike
Forwarded by our friends at AFI Research, an article by Marcus Cohen and 'Jonathan Ben Tal'
Now that the initial furore and the barrage of claim and counter-claim about the exposure of a large Israeli espionage network in the USA appears to be finally dying down, a closer and perhaps rather more sceptical look at Israeli intelligence operations is long overdue. There is nothing new in the discovery of Israeli spying in the United States, it has been underway since 1948. Israel's secret services have immediate access to the Jewish lobby in America and through them to countless senior members of the industrial, electronics, research, academic and military communities. Mossads own close relations with the CIA in particular have greatly benefited Israel over the years, as the United States has rarely with-held vital information from the Government in Jerusalem.
The same however cannot not be said of Mossad's attitude towards intelligence sharing, the US learns only what Israel thinks will benefit their own interests. While it would be true to say that Israeli espionage is not usually directed against the United States or its main interests, Mossad, in common with the Israeli Government can and does operate in a way that may damage US plans.
Israel is not above selling high-technology weapons or sharing in advanced research with such regimes as the racist South African Government in the 1960's and 1970's or providing air-to-air missiles to Communist China that could be used to shoot down US military aircraft. Only severe pressure from Washington has recently prevented the sale of advance radar technology to Beijing which would no doubt have found its way back to the Middle East as China is helping to upgrade and strengthen the Iraqi air defence system. The intended sale of such equipment can hardly be described as a friendly act towards Israel's American allies, nor were the activities of the American spy Jonathan Pollard who sold enormous amounts of US top secret material to Mossad. The United States relations with Israel have been strained in the past by such acts as the deliberate and prolonged Israeli air and naval attacks on the USS Liberty, an NSA SIGINT vessel stationed off the Mediterranean coast during the six day war in 1967. The merciless killing of some 34 US service personnel on board the Liberty brought a barrage of lies and disinformation from Israel which Washington was forced to swallow at the time, but the bottom line was that Israel appeared to many neutral observers to be prepared to sacrifice young American lives to protect its own dark secrets when necessary.
Israel's determination to survive, at all costs
Israel and its intelligence services have battled to survive the threat of immanent extinction for 54 years and still only really trust themselves however sympathetic its US allies appear to be. Israel despite its numerous inbuilt advantages in the USA and the close co-operation of the US services still maintains widespread surveillance within the USA and of US assets abroad. The decision to round up and ask some 120 Israeli 'citizens' to leave may have less to do with their possible spying activities and more to do with a growing perception among intelligence sources that Israel failed to share with the United States vital intelligence gained on the activities of Islamic terrorists before the events of September 11th. If that proves to be true then the expulsion of these supposed Israeli intelligence officers can be considered a severe slap on the wrist for not co-operating fully with the United States.
This new and somewhat more equivocal US attitude towards Israel may seem difficult to detect, but the quiet and determined promotion of the Saudi peace plan by Washington which if successful would have put Israel in an invidious position and with the onus placed firmly on Sharon to come up with a meaningful response is symptomatic of this slight shifting of Americas stance.
The United States willingness to actually vote on two recent United Nations resolutions calling for restraint or withdrawal of forces by Israel has seriously worried the Sharon Government. This concern is a major driving force behind the determined assault on Yasser Arafat's headquarters complex in Ramallah. The Israeli Special Forces have orders to clear the Palestinian security personnel out of sensitive areas such as the communications, armoury and intelligence records departments before vital evidence of Arafats complicity in terrorist attacks can be destroyed or 'disappear'. Mossad and Shin Beth are aware that much secret material was not stored at the complex, but that some current operational material may still be found. Sharon believes that any evidence that proves Israels view of Arafat as a deceitful and clever terrorist will quickly re-establish full trust with Washington and gain Israel the public, as well as private approval of the United States to seek a military solution to the Intifada.
Though many Israelis would prefer peace based on mutual trust and co-operation with the Palestinians, even if this means the return of occupied lands in return for international guarantees of security, there is a growing number of traumatized and fearful Israelis who would now be prepared to back Sharon even if this meant the possibility of a war with its Arab neighbours. In truth however, the major Arab states will most likely once again opt for betraying the Palestinian cause rather than face a wrathful Israel. That may not be the end of the matter this time as a much more effect Islamic extremist movement may well turn its guns and bombs on those branded traitors to the Arab cause. The consequences of widening violence throughout the Middle East are immeasurable and likely to be distinctly unhelpful to Israel's long term security. A revitalized Pan-Arab movement would pose an enormous threat to the survival of the Government in Jerusalem. The Intifada, the threat of a wider war and increased terrorism as highlighted by the attacks on Easter Sunday, will probably haunt Israel for the foreseeable future. That can only mean that Israel must and will take all necessary steps to protect itself. If these include espionage networks in the United States or Europe, assassinating leading Arab militants or attacking a spy ship, then Israel will not be found wanting.
Return To Top April 1, 2002
March 31, 2002
There is no substantive change in the Mideast situation worth reporting.
Avoid Jungle Fights If You Can
Mideast March 30
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price March 30
Israel Calls Up 20,000 Reservists March 30
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral March 30
Al-Qaeda forces regrouping in Afghanistan: Cheney March 29
Avoid Turning Pakistan Into Another Iran March 29
Avoid Jungle Fights If You Can
An article by Michael Crawford of Milnet.com, forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
One of the worst cases for police and fireman is moving into a hostage situation where the job of protection and saving lives is hindered by a bad guy with a gun. Now imagine a situation where that one guy is multiplied into several thousand bad guys, armed with automatic rifles, high caliber machine guns, C-4 explosives, mortars, and rocket powered grenades (RPGs). Now further imagine the situation where the good guys are running around in the jungle chasing the bad guys on their own turf, with little or no real protection except perhaps, for the bad guys who probably know where every crook and nanny can be used for hiding. Add in a populace that is pre-disposed to let the bad guys float around freely. All the baddies have to do is pull off their masks, ditch their guns and they are suddenly just another dude in the jungle -- otherwise indistinguishable from any other dude in the jungle.
Complicate the situation with a pair of American hostages who are weak, meek and pretty much have given up on life. Gone way beyond Stockholm syndrome, these two hostages are in total fear and resigned to a bullet in the head -- worried that they are going to die of malnutrition before they are rescued. Rescued? Rescue really is their last, unrealistic hope. These two are not your hardened and trained military types. No way.
Abu Sayyaf, along with one or two other lesser evils in the world of Terrorism, have banded together when necessary to fight the "good" battle against the "evil" empire. Guess who gets to be called evil this time. That's right, the U.S. is being touted in the streets of the Philippines as the evil empire. Complete with the usual U.S. flag burning and demonstrators gleefully trying to build, then burn, an effigy of George W.
What's this got to do with Al-Qaida or the Taliban? Apart from a tenuous link put forth under the guise of Al-Qaida's stated goal to "re-establish the Muslim state around the globe", there is no link. Oh maybe there is a guy who proclaims to be the official Al-Qaida liaison. Maybe these groups have even received a few bucks from O.B.L. Is it an Al-Qaida stronghold? Is it a place where Al-Qaida can be found in force like Pakistan or even Lebanon? Nope. But it is a natural extension of the War on Terror says Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. And clearly, if you examine the Philippines and where it stands in Southeast Asia, both economically and militarily, you might be spot a good reason or two for going over there. It IS in a strategic location. And while MILNET would recommend focusing on Pakistan and Lebanon, we'll go along with this decision for the sake of argument.
Exploring the PR War
This excursion into the Philippines (some military guys are already calling it the "Philippine Adventure" or "FLIPA") is definitely a real winner for the President of the Philippines who claims her Forces weren't up to the job. Absent any real successes at controlling the local and semi global terrorist organizations, Madame President pitched in with PR support for the U.S. at the onset of the Afghan campaign, but perhaps, under the table, she exacted a pretty steep price.
"Eliminate the rabble in my country" might have been the quid-pro-quo in this case. And it makes sense, especially from her viewpoint. Start with some U.S. spec ops types, trained to train-the-trainer, and exercise their abilities to help other armies or militia become deadly terrorist fighters. It's been a well developed and evolved skillset for special ops warriors since the predecessor to the SAS trained anti-guerrillas fighters in the British Colonies. Perfected by the SAS and later the Green Berets and Seals in Vietnam, Angola, the Congo and many other hot spots, the ability to take indigenous soldier "wanna-be's", train and them lead them as an effective fighting force is a primary skill if you want to prop up a government that's in trouble. In this case, the President of the Philippines is losing her particular PR war, so she brings in the best gunslingers, the U.S. Special Forces, her own personal anti-terrorist heavies.
So far so good. But once again, we would like to caution our nation's leaders. Jungle warfare is, as one of our spec ops buddies tells us "a really nasty business." Especially when the bad guys look like the good guys. Especially when "...you are fighting village to village in a deep jungle and the people there are more interested in the next meal and don't really give a damn about you or your politics."
If any of this sounds familiar, you're right. We are now going to play the card usually played by our extremely liberal press in the U.S. It's like Vietnam or Korea. There we've said it.
Smells Like Vietnam, Tastes Like Vietnam, but Is It Vietnam?
This is as close to a Vietnam scenario as you're going to get in this millennium. Of course there is one very encouraging fact. There is no land bridge that will have us see China sending in regulars and tons of equipment and weapons to bolster up the North -- no horde of Chinese trained Viet Cong flushing down the Ho Chi Minh trail like a sea of army ants lusting after a water buffalo carcass.
The similarities, though are as dramatic as the encouraging news of no land bridge. Ask any Vietnam vet what it was like to slog through a muddy trail along a river, enter a jungle and then have the rain start falling. "Suddenly you have zero visibility, can't hear anything, and you start shivering." Add in a little gunfire out of nowhere and the nightmare is complete.
Take a look at MILNET's comparison of the Philippines and Vietnam. You will see many similarities between the two nations -- physically, politically, and strategically. Nearly the same latitudes. Hot, muggy, jungles. Lot's of interest from China. A linchpin to Southeast Asia. Lot's of AK-47's and RPG's provided by the Communist weapons stockpiles. And while none of us at MILNET worry about continued Chinese or Russian supply to the Philippine terrorists across miles of water, the U.S. must be cautious with its partner's ability to control its forces. After all, if Madame President doesn't think her guys are up to it, why should we assume that in the heat of battle they won't go "postal" on us. We certainly don't want a repeat of Lebanon and we can ill afford getting mired in the mud with so many other crucial foreign affairs to deal with.
Return To Top March 31, 2002
March 30, 2002
Mideast
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price
Israel Calls Up 20,000 Reservists
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral
US resists greater role in Afghan peacekeeping March 29
Al-Qaeda forces regrouping in Afghanistan: Cheney March 29
Avoid Turning Pakistan Into Another Iran March 29
Mideast
DebkaFile reports that Israel has recalled 30,000 reservists and that it is filling out armored brigades facing Syria and Lebanon. Israel is preparing a major operation against Palestine territory. Our colleague Richard M. Bennett gives more details below. Debka says Israeli troops have discovered huge stockpiles of weapons in underground tunnels, including M-72 LAWs, and electronic surveillance gear to monitor Israeli military movements. Other material indicated the Palestinians had information on movements and security details of senior Israeli military leaders.
Meanwhile, the Times of India quoting AFP reports that in a telephone interview Chairman Arafat shouted at CNN's Christine Amanpour when she repeatedly pressed him to say if he could control the terrorists. He then hung up on her. In your editor's personal opinion, anyone would lose their calm when confronted by Ms. Amanpour even at the best of times. And here was the Chairman, confined by Israeli Merkevas to a windowless office on the middle floor of a three-story building, not knowing if the Israelis were at any minute about to satisfy his wish to be a martyr for Palestine.
Breaking 1430 GMT March 29, 2002 on Mideast from DebkaFile.
- 16:15 IT: Israel Forces Occupy Seven
Palestinian Government Buildings in Ramallah -
But Not Arafat’s Office -
Palestinian Leader Moves to Underground Bunker.
- Sharon Says Operation to Break Back of Terror Machine
Begun Friday Could Last Week or More
- 12:30 IT: Israeli Commando Lt. Boaz Pomeranz, 22,
From Kiryat Shemona, Is Killed in Early Friday
Engagement with Guards in Arafat’s HQ
Four Palestinians Killed, 22 Injured Four Israeli Soldiers Injured
- DEBKAfile Reports: Israel Imposes Electronic Blanket on His Headquarters
- First Reports of Unusual Military Movements in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq
- IDF prepares to Turn Schools into Call-up Stations for
Reserves in Emergency
- Two Israelis Killed, 28 Injured in Supermarket Suicide Bombing in Kiryat Yoval, Jerusalem, by 16-Old Girl, Fatah Member from Bethlehem
Girl Detonated Bomb Belt When Guard Blocks Her Entry and Leave Bag with Explosive Charge at Gate
- Spiraling Terror Attacks Claim
29 Israeli Deaths in Less than 24 Hours
- Sharon in News Conference Stresses Arafat Is Enemy and
Isolated “For the Moment”
- Friday Morning, Two Israelis Stabbed to Death by
Palestinian Laborer in Netzarim, Gaza Strip
Both Were Visitors: Tuvia Weisner, 79, from Petach Tikva, and
Michael Orlinsky, 70, from Tel Aviv
Return To Top March 30, 2002
The Bin Laden E-mail: Analysis by Johann Price
The recent e-mail to the London based Arabic language newspaper Al-Quds allegedly from Osama bin Laden has attracted a fair amount of media attention. In the emailed statement the writer roundly condemns Crown Prince Abdallah's middle eastern peace plan. One strong reason for beleiving that this message was indeed most likely genuine is that it was an opportunity for bin Laden to expound on two of his core themes; Zionist opression of Muslims, and the rottenness of the Saudi royal family.
Readers will remember that we among others suggested that there was a high likelihood that unrest would be fermented in western Saudi Arabia as hundreds of thousands of Muslims streamed into Mecca and Medina while the bombing campaign continued in Afghanistan. Even allowing for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's (KSA) ability to stifle information on incidents I was intrigued and surprised by just how little trouble there had been in Saudi, given the level of dissatisfaction with the monarchy and the ties bin laden enjoyed to the opposition. It seemed unlike bin Laden to ignore such an opportunity. I decided to go back to bin Laden's public statements to explore what might motivate him.
The following (with my bolding) is from his 1996 "Declaration of War Against the Americans", written shortly after US pressure resulted in his ejection from Sudan.
I would like here to alert my brothers, the Mujaheddin to protect this oil wealth and not include it in the battle, as it is a great Islamic wealth and a large economic power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state, by Allah's Permission and Grace. The existance of such a large country with it's huge resources under the leadership of the forthcoming Islamic state, by Allah's Grace represents a serious danger to the very existance of the Zionist state in palestine. The Noble Kaa'ba, the Qiblah of Muslims, makes the land of the Two Holy Places a symbol for the unity of the Islamic world. An internal war would be a great mistake, no matter the reasons for it.
This is a remarkable statement given his hatred for the House of Saud.
The battle for the KSA is being conducted through ideological and religious subversion. The battle is for control of the mullahs, and the slow infiltration of society and institutions. The final toppling of Al-Saud (they hope) would be a bloodless non-event.
The KSA's own determination to maintain an opaque and closed society will make it extremely difficult for the rest of the world to measure their progress or influence this war.
Unless the Saudi royal family produces a powerful son who actually shares bin Laden's vision we can expect that they will attempt to fight this subversion tooth and nail to preserve the dynasty. They are utterly ruthless and as bin Laden acknowledged have enormous resources behind them. We should bear in mind that Ibn Saud faced an even more fanatical threat in the form of the Ikhwan (his former allies in the defeat of the Hashemites) and defeated them in the 1930s. On the otherhand the Ikhwan was nowhere as subtle, patient or sophisticated.
One of the most damaging things that excessive concern about maintaining a special relationship with the Saudis on their own terms did was to limit our independant information gathering ability within KSA. A handful of people at the top in our countries maintained contact with a handful suave, well educated and thoroughly deceitful people at the top of the KSA.This is something that will have to be changed, as the stakes are simply too high - we need to be able to penetrate the institutions and society of this country. This can take place concurrently as we broaden and strengthen institution to institution contacts with Saudi internal and external intelligence agencies. In fact the latter can serve as a useful cover for the former.
Return To Top March 30, 2002
Israel calls up 20,000 reserves
From our colleague at AFI Fresearch, Richard M. Bennett
As the conflict between an increasingly fearful Israel and a desperate Palestinian population in the occupied territories spirals further out of control, the risks of the fighting spreading to neighbouring states have risen alarmingly. Israel having already committed the majority of its regular troops to the campaign have called up over 20,000 reservists in recent days, in part to re-inforce the hard pressed units in the Gaza Strip and West Bank but also to mobilize Armoured Brigades stationed along the northern frontiers with the Lebanon and Syria. While IDF sources insist that this is merely good military tactics to prepare for any eventuality, it is more likely to be part of the overall preparation to launch a massive armoured thrust into the Beka'a Valley which runs much of the length of eastern Lebanon.
The Beka'a is home to a enormous complex of Iranian backed Hezbollah terrorist bases complete with well fortified bunkers, arms dumps, workshops and missile batteries capable of hitting much of Northern and Central Israel. Many thousands of Al Qa'idas best fighters have moved into the Hezbollah areas and pose a significant new threat and indeed have recently made their presence felt with notably successful attacks on Israeli military units. The Lebanon is also the base for major Syrian Mechanized units and Air Defence systems, as well as an important Military Intelligence infrastructure and this has been re-inforced with Iranian Revolutionary Guard units and Special Forces who are helping to train both Hezbollah and Palestinian fighters in subversion, sabotage and other covert activities.
Any Israeli assault to clean out the terrorist strongholds in the Lebanon will of necessity involve a confrontation with the Syrian forces defending the Beka'a and bring with it the enhanced possibility of a wider Middle East conflict. It therefore comes as no real surprise that in the light of the present highly dangerous situation in the region, with Israel's determination to publicly humiliate Yasser Arafat by holding him hostage in whats left of his Ramallah headquarters and a new found, if temporary spirit of co-operation between many of the leading Arab nations, that the first hints of military activity have surfaced. A number of well trained and equipped Mechanized Divisions, along with Special Forces units, and the most important elements of the Air Defence System have been placed on a higher state of alert in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The Lebanon is reported to have moved at least one Infantry Brigade towards its southern border area and the Saudi Armed Forces may now be at greater readiness.
The Arabs prepare for defence, not to help Arafat
None of the reported Arab military action is suggestive of preparations to actively intervene on the Palestinian side, any such action would be taken by Israel as tantamount to an open declaration of war and the resulting consequences for the Arab armed forces would be devastating. These must be considered purely defensive deployments, at least at present, to guard against the conflict spilling over the borders. However should it become obvious that Sharon has decided that Israel has little alternative but to carry the war to Hezbollah and other allies of the Palestinians, with or without US approval, then the possibility of a large scale mobilization and movement of Iraqi and Iranian forces into Syria and perhaps even the Egyptian army into the Sinai cannot be ruled out. Saudi Arabia's most likely contribution to an any Arab military effort would be restricted to its powerful and modern Air Force. In the meantime the flow of Saudi money to the Palestinians is set to increase significantly in the near future.
What effect such at set of circumstances would have on Washington's planning for an all out assault to defeat Saddam Hussein is uncertain, but it must raise the spectre of the United States largely losing the support of many of its European allies as Iraq is increasing accepted back into mainstream Arab affairs and having instead to rely on a handful of small Gulf states, Israel and perhaps Turkey for essential support. The payback that these states would demand may produce long term results that are quite unexpected and unwanted. Perhaps more attention should now be paid to the wise council of Colin Powell and those with experience of the quagmire awaiting the US in the Middle East.
Return To Top March 30, 2002
Arab Nations Together in a Death Spiral
From Michael Crawford of MILNET forwarded to us by AFI Research.
With economies declining, and local resentment at home over relations with the Western world, the Arab Nations in the Mideast have reached a pivotal point in their existence. But the Arab Summit was not the grandiose event to match the hoopla. In a nearly unanimous vote to lift sanctions from Iraq and a declaration that "Any attack on an Arab Nation is an attack on all Arab Nations", the truth of Arab complicity in worldwide terror has become visible. Moreover, the squabbling over the finer points of the Israeli-Palestinian disaster brings into question Arab genuine desires to end the conflict. Banding together as they have in the past, the so called elite of the Middle East have dug their own graves.
In the public face of the Arab Nations, none could support the premise that Iraq's Saddam Hussein is a dangerous man nor support the contention that Iraq is a danger to its neighbors.
But according to Sue Lackey of MSNBC, reporting from the summit, the Arab nations see Saddam Hussein's reign nearing its end. Our sources confirm extreme nervousness over Iraq and the danger it presents to the Arab nations. Not from invasion, but from the effects of its continued "stick in the eye" taunts of U.S. and U.N. requirements for weapons inspections. While publicly standing by Iraq, the Arab nations are literally shaking their heads in dismay. They consistently fear that the fate of Iraq will be their own. And their public statements of support for Iraq, necessary to calm the evil they have created within their own borders, exacerbates the problem by inexorably tying their survival on Iraq's survival. A huge mistake.
In the public face of the Arab Nations, none could support the premise that Palestinian violence must stop.
The problems arise from their domestic policies over the last two decades. The common people have been taught to see the U.S. positions in both cases as anti-Arab.
Similarly, the Israeli-Palestinian problems have been positioned as an Arab-Jew problem, painting the Israelis and their western supporters as a huge evil worthy of the Jihad. In the meantime, the common peoples suffer while the elite continue to live fat off the oil profits gained by selling to that very same evil. And Israeli retaliation continues to fuel Palestinian retaliation and a never ending cycle. Arab pride refuses to make an effort to halt the violence even for a few days, and thus cycle restarts after each lull. Israel pulls back and waits for a sign of peace and within days they get nailed for their patience.
And the Arab nations have done absolutely nothing to change their own people's minds on these subjects. Remarkably, they have foolishly painted themselves into an extremely difficult corner in both the Palestinian and Iraq cases. If they publicly chastise the forces killing Israelis, they appear to be supporting the Jew. If they publicly chastise Iraq, they appear to be supporting the great evil, the Americans and their puppets in the U.N.
However in the real world, if they support the suicide bombers and gunmen, the violence will never end and in fact may prompt an all out war in the Middle East led by the Israelis. If they publicly support Iraq, then eventually when Iraq is dealt with -- and they freely admit in private that Saddam is not long for this world -- they will have hitched their reigns to a falling star. With today's declaration, they now have to fight alongside Saddam, again fighting an all out war in the Middle East led by the Americans. How that must rankle those who know Saddam is a traitor to Arabs.
Decades of breeding hatred for the western world has backfired on the Arab Nations, especially Saudi Arabia, where terrorists have been bred, sent to Afghanistan for training, and now to Lebanon and Jordan to be infiltrated into Israel to conduct raids and suicide bombings. Trained for the attacks on the U.S. one of the Arab Nations largest trading partners. And now the duplicity is coming home.
The lies propping up "Arab Solidarity" are wearing thin at home in the Arab nations. Their populaces, being fed by the same forces that created the 9/11 terrorists, are now looking at their leaders with a jaundiced eye. Once the favored nation in Islam, Saudi Arabia still wields much power in the Arab nations, but it is on a decline. While the great evil prospers, the great Islamic leaders also prosper. But not the common people. Their condition worsens, and their religious leaders tell them it is because the great evil is causing their pain. But when they look closely, they begin to see a strange thing happening. Their leaders disavow terrorism, condemn the suicide bombers and then support the great traitor Saddam. The Princes continue to rule in luxury while the people struggle and who gives them the wealth that makes the elite so comfortable? The Satan's of the western world. It is all so confusing. As Arab students begin to look at the world with educated eyes, they begin to see the lies behind the duplicity.
The proposition that Iraq is to be treated just like any other Arab nation is a symptom of the disease that will eventually topple this "princely kingdom". You cannot build Arab solidarity when you include a country and leader who has no difficulty attacking its neighbors. Iraq is the only Arab nation to attack not just one, but two of its Arab neighbors. It would not be a friend to any Arab nation today, were it not also the target of the civilized western world. Even Arab acceptance of the two faced negotiation technique cannot survive this conflicting position.
Even from the PR viewpoint this conflict is apparent. It is interesting that the Arab nations squabble over what to do about the Palestinians and Israel, yet can easily and quickly agree to welcome Iraq "back into the brotherhood of Arab nations" with an unanimous vote. Looking at this PR message, you find that odd dichotomy -- solidarity with Iraq is more easily accepted than support for the Palestinian cause. Why does this occur. It is simple really. You can't say "Iraq is a sovereign nation and does not have to follow the rules of civilized behavior" and then turn around and say "Israel is not a sovereign nation and has no right to defend its people from suicide bombers and gunmen." The two do not logically fit together. It only points out the "Us versus Them" -- Arab versus the rest of the World. When logic fails, emotion soon will follow. The Arab nations have hoped that emotions would prevent logic from being recognized, but that is no longer the case. Their own people are beginning to see the lie.
The two faced Arab negotiation style has finally paid its negative dividend. By smiling and shaking the hand of their infidel business partners, they now find themselves having to take the hand of the traitor Saddam to divert the attention of their people at home -- a people they have clearly been training for hatred of the very source of their wealth. Soon they will lose both hands and spiral down into extinction.
Where does this duplicity come from? Because the foolish Arab leaders ego says they are the kings and princes of oil. In reality, their power is quickly waning and their leverage is just as quickly vanishing. The duplicity over Iraq and Israel conflicts head on with their place in the world's economy and membership in civilized nations, and more and more of their populations see this. Arab nations cannot support an attack on business partners, cannot support attacks on sovereign nations, without opening themselves to the same attacks. The duplicity between public and private diplomacy, their own theft of needed resources from their countrymen, and the arrogance to believe no one will catch them at is now marking the end of their reigns.
In the end, they will find that the rest of the World's cultures recognize the right of Israel to exist and cannot accept suicide bombers and gunmen taunting Israel into retaliation after retaliation. The World's cultures cannot allow Saddam to continue to build his forces and WMD stockpiles.
Until the Arab nations can stand in public and refute the right of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Al Aqsa Brigades to kill Israelis, the Arab nations will continue to be pariahs to their chief business partners. Until the Arab nations can stand in public and refute the right of Saddam to tweak his nose at the World's requirements to disarm and allow inspections of his WMD facilities, their ability to control the agenda will diminish.
They will continue to have declining economies, and populations who more and more question their leaders. They will eventually find themselves with a lot of oil to sell to each other and larger, more powerful nations in their midst trying to keep a lid on the evil they have bred within their own borders.
This Arab Summit would have been the best place and right now the best time for the Arab Nations to finally throw down the big lie and stand up to refute their traitorous neighbor and condemn violence against Israel and take their place in the civilized world. Instead, we face another year of Middle Eastern madness, a madness that threatens to double and triple the death rates and possibly may involve an East Versus West war.
Return To Top March 30, 2002
March 29, 2002
Arafat Proposes Ceasefire as Israel Prepares Military Action
US resists greater role in Afghan peacekeeping
Al-Qaeda forces regrouping in Afghanistan: Cheney
Avoid Turning Pakistan Into Another Iran
Another lurch towards all out war March 28
Shah-i-Kot: Analysis on Washington Post's & Boston Globe's Doubts March 17
Operation Uprooting: The Israeli Operation Against Palestine March 15
Breaking 1430 GMT on Mideast from DebkaFile.
- 16:15 IT: Israel Forces Occupy Seven
Palestinian Government Buildings in Ramallah -
But Not Arafat’s Office -
Palestinian Leader Moves to Underground Bunker.
- Sharon Says Operation to Break Back of Terror Machine
Begun Friday Could Last Week or More
- 12:30 IT: Israeli Commando Lt. Boaz Pomeranz, 22,
From Kiryat Shemona, Is Killed in Early Friday
Engagement with Guards in Arafat’s HQ
Four Palestinians Killed, 22 Injured Four Israeli Soldiers Injured
- DEBKAfile Reports: Israel Imposes Electronic Blanket on His Headquarters
- First Reports of Unusual Military Movements in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq
- IDF prepares to Turn Schools into Call-up Stations for
Reserves in Emergency
- Two Israelis Killed, 28 Injured in Supermarket Suicide Bombing in Kiryat Yoval, Jerusalem, by 16-Old Girl, Fatah Member from Bethlehem
Girl Detonated Bomb Belt When Guard Blocks Her Entry and Leave Bag with Explosive Charge at Gate
- Spiraling Terror Attacks Claim
29 Israeli Deaths in Less than 24 Hours
- Sharon in News Conference Stresses Arafat Is Enemy and
Isolated “For the Moment”
- Friday Morning, Two Israelis Stabbed to Death by
Palestinian Laborer in Netzarim, Gaza Strip
Both Were Visitors: Tuvia Weisner, 79, from Petach Tikva, and
Michael Orlinsky, 70, from Tel Aviv
Arafat Proposes Ceasefire as Israel Prepares Military Action
Reuters reports that Chairman Arafat has proposed an immediate ceasefire and is arresting militants in an effort to head off an impending Israeli strike in retaliation for the latest suicide bombing as well as four Israelis killed by a Palestinian gunman. It is difficult to see how Israel can accept a ceasefire before embarking on a major military retaliation. For such details as are available on Israel's preparations, please see DebkaFile.
Return To Top March 29, 2002
US resists greater role in Afghan peacekeeping
From AFP, as reported in the Times of India.
Washington has so far resisted pressure to play a greater peacekeeping role in Afghanistan, preferring instead to focus on building a national army.US officials on Wednesday joined their fellow UN Security Council members in agreeing to extend the mandate of the International Security Assistance Force when it expires in June.
However, Washington still refuses to participate in the force, and the Security Council's decision did not provide for an expansion of the force's mandate beyond the Afghan capital, Kabul despite intense lobbying by Afghan interim leader Hamid Karzai and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.
The Pentagon said on Monday that 125 to 150 American instructors would begin training an Afghan national army in the next four to six weeks, and President George W Bush has requested $50 mn from the US Congress to train and equip the new force, the State Department said.
The US hope is that the new Afghan army would replace the authority of regional warlords and curb ethnic conflict.But some analysts warn that without effective peacekeeping, Afghanistan could descend into chaos before the new army can be pulled together."I don't believe you can create a national army till you know who commands it. The present leadership is monopolized by Panjshiri Tajiks, this is unacceptable for the rest," said Anatol Lieven, an analyst for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace."America can't have a complete hands-off of the nation-building policy," he said. "America will have to be involved ... and control the warlords it built up."
The US Central Intelligence Agency recently warned that the seeds of civil war are being sown in Afghanistan, and the White House special envoy to that country, Zalmay Khalilzad, recently proposed that US forces intervene in local conflicts.
"This is wishful thinking. I don't think we want to get involved as policemen," responded a senior Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity.Reiterating his position that Afghans take matters of national security into their own hands, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Monday the future of Afghanistan -- including the building of hospitals and of roads or the return of refugees -- depends on a national army, because "you've got to have security."
A group of 600 Afghans of different ethnic backgrounds have since late February been training in Kabul under the supervision of about 100 military advisers from western nations such as Britain, Turkey, Italy, France and Germany.But a significant number of Afghan provincial governors continue to question the need for a national army.
Return To Top March 29, 2002
Al-Qaeda forces regrouping in Afghanistan: Cheney
An AFP story from the Times of India.
US Vice President Dick Cheney said Sunday that al-Qaeda forces were still trying to regroup inside Afghanistan but that US forces were working to thwart their plans, and the consolidation of a strong Afghan government.Speaking on CNN's Late Edition program, Cheney confirmed that intelligence showed al-Qaeda was "regrouping" and "clearly would like to" take action against the United States. "And we see movement," Cheney added."There are still al-Qaeda scattered around Afghanistan. There are, I'm sure, going to be efforts by them to try to organize themselves enough so that they can launch an attack at least on our forces in Afghanistan," the US vice president said."We saw, obviously, a coalescing of a group in the area where we launched Operation Anaconda a couple of weeks ago, and very successfully eliminated a big chunk of the al-Qaeda," Cheney pointed out.Al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden, are blamed for the September 11 attacks on the United States that left about 3,000 people dead.Meanwhile, the commander in charge of the Afghan operation, General Tommy Franks, speaking Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" show said the United States still had to complete its task in Afghanistan."What we have left to do is be sure that we've completed what we started out to do 169 days ago, and that's to assure ourselves that the al-Qaeda network inside Afghanistan is destroyed, and so we're going to continue to do that work until we are, in fact, satisfied," Franks said.He said allied forces were "making progress in getting that done" citing the ouster of the Taliban militia as a governing entity in its entirety.
A US Central Command spokesman in Tampa, Florida, declined to comment "for operational reasons" on whether a new operation was in the planning to counter any regrouping."Anaconda is a clear indication of the support of the Afghan forces as well as coalition forces that if there's an issue with remaining al-Qaeda or Taliban that we'll address them appropriately," spokesman Major Brad Lowell told AFP in a telephone interview."We have said all along there's potential for pockets to exist," said Lowell, adding that the United States would take action "if the need arises.""We continue to watch all of Afghanistan. We have assets and resources available to do that for reconnaissance on the ground, intelligence, cooperation with Afghan forces," the spokesman said.
Coalition troops, meanwhile, were on Sunday continuing to scour the Shahi Kot valley in eastern Afghanistan following the conclusion of Operation Anaconda last Monday.The searches recently uncovered "more small arms, machine guns, mortars and documents and a large quantity of munitions," Major Bryan Hilferty told press at Bagram Air Base, a US military base north of Kabul, without specifying exactly when.
Return To Top March 29, 2002
Avoid Turning Pakistan Into Another Iran
An article by Michael Crawford of MILNET, forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
The article is slightly edited as Mr. Crawford's language tends to be slightly stronger than our editorial preference.
Most of MILNET contributors as well as those we have interviewed on the subject of our relations with the Middle East agree, the United States need to be more careful "who we get in bed with". In this case the bed is a metaphor for our budding relationship with Pakistan. President Pervez Musharraf, while attempting to do his best to hold the dicey position between hardliners in his country, Islamic Extremists surrounding him (of both Sunni and Shiite persuasion) and the rest of the world who are not prone to Islamic Extremism, is not exactly our best bed-fellow.
A dictator to be sure, and a military dictator at most times, Musharraf is making promises to all sides. He has demonstrated that his government and its policies are so shotgun like that he has the dubious honor of being liked by few and pretty much hated by all.
Entering the Deep Dark
Here is the worst case scenario for U.S. leadership.
As the U.S. and allies continue to chase Taliban and Al-Qaida across craggy mountain tops and in and out of caves a bear would reject out of principle, we are basically herding them into Pakistan. Pakistan, where the intelligence organization is known to have bred and nurtured the Taliban if not Al-Qaida (need a top secret clearance to see that info we assume). Where nearly a third of Al-Qaida and Taliban are thought to have fled in the first weeks of the Afghan rescue operation. Pakistan where perhaps O.B.L. ran to die waiting for kidney dialysis.
Pakistan where at any moment a significant percentage of the population is being taught to hate all things western and can take to the streets in popular revolt against the "western puppet" Musharraf. Where woman are only a little better off right now than in Taliban land. Pakistan where Musharraf makes interesting efforts to eliminate terrorists bent on reducing India to a molten slag.
Let's look at the parallels between Musharraf and the Shah of Iran - taking our view from the man on the street in Pakistan.
· Not all that popular (and declining) in his own country
· Has unwavering support both politically and in the form of aid from the "great evil", the United States
· Is receiving arms from anyone who will provide them including the United States
· Gives political support to the United States
· Is attempting to westernize the country through changes in policies AND non Islamic legal system
· Is exceedingly out of touch with the man on the street
· Is continually moving more and more away from secular Islam
· Murders or imprisons those who oppose him
· Has a firm grip on the press and public dissent
· Yet cannot control people taking to the streets to counter his public positions
· Is not liked at all by secular leaders and their followers
History Repeats Itself
If history were to repeat itself in this case, we could easily wind up with another few items in listing of the worst case scenario:
· A popular uprising throws out Musharraf
· A secular Islamic government, run by Islamic Extremists assuming power
· U.S. civilians in country flee for their lives
· U.S. politicos in country are captured and held hostage
· A U.S. president, helpless against a nation holding Americans hostage starts losing his popularity rapidly.
· The U.S. president loses the election
· A different U.S. president receives the hostages after paying a huge ransom under the table in aid, arms and concessions.
Avoiding the Deep Dark
The dark scenario can be avoided. Do not chase Al Qaida and Taliban into Pakistan. Chase them out -- Here's how:
1. Put off any attack on Iraq. If this means yanking Spec Ops out of Iraq, do it.
2. Pull the division of U.S. troops out of the Balkans.
3. Slice and dice U.S. divisions everywhere until you have a REALLY BIG FORCE overseas in position to drop just inside the Pakistani border
4. Quickly frog march the Philippine Army on top of Abu Sayyaff and eliminate them in 30 days, and make forces in action there available. If this takes thousands of troops so be it. We shouldn't have gone in there unless we meant to go in quick and get out just as quick. If we aren't successful in 30 days, pull out and tip our hat to the Philippine government and say, "Sorry, you're on your own." We've done it before, we can do it again.
5. Take all forces available (rapid turn around the U.S.S. Teddy Roosevelt and let's keep three if not four carriers battle groups in the Gulf for awhile).
6. Line up inside the Pakistani border and march toward Afghan cities, bombing ahead and clearing up behind until we eliminate any of the remaining Taliban and Al-Qaida members. Make the Taliban and Al Qaida leftovers wind up between places we hold NOT dispersing into a Pakistan happy to see them and which will great them with open arms as heroes returning home from fighting the great evil. (the U.S.).
7. If you use Afghanis, have a spec ops team with each element. Ditto for Pakistanis. Any debate on whether a prisoner is Al Qiada, Taliban or Pakistani national is satisfied by the spec ops commander and his .45.
8. DO NOT, repeat, DO NOT pursue into Taliban and Al Qaida into Pakistan -- this will only serve up Musharraf as breakfast for the Pakistani version of the Ayatollah Khomeni.
Return To Top March 29, 2002